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Happy Holidays!
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Happy Holidays!

by The MoleDecember 23, 2014

I poked around my charting universe and didn’t find anything worth reporting. Markets are pushing sideways across the board with equities hovering near their all time highs. I don’t think much is going to happen here this week but given where we are on the equities front we’re most likely are going to finish the year with a bang. Let’s take this opportunity to revisit the big picture.

2014-12-23_SPX_pnf

I think our point and figure chart really speaks clearly here, in particular as it focuses on the big picture and doesn’t concern itself with time, only price counts. In the past two months we have witnessed two medium term retracements, both of which however were mercilessly reversed in a fraction of the time that it took to produce the downside leg. Think about that for a second, consider what this tells us. Usually – meaning  over the past 100 years or so – the downside moves are known to be the most violent, retracing price advances in a fraction of the time it took to produce them. It’s rare to see the opposite happening – especially twice in a row.

And quite frankly it’s not the first time we witnessed a drawn out correction followed by a blazing fast recovery. Actually we are seeing a lot of ‘long poles’ on this P&F chart, which continues to speak to the strength of the ongoing trend. If you would turn this chart upside down then it would actually better fit the characteristics we usually expect. Resistance clearly is to the downside here and the ‘easy’ direction continues to be higher and higher. Given that the current bullish price objective of 2280 doesn’t really sound so outlandish.

Now we are parked right at an inflection point which has failed twice before. The odds suggest that SPX 2080 will most likely be taken in the coming weeks, be it in the coming week or in early January. However I do think that 2015 will be a difficult year for stocks, so be prepared for a bit of turbulence next year. This market phase cannot continue forever – it has already outpaced all of our wildest expectations, and the chart above suggests that we are heading for some type of exhaustion spike on the long term side. With the Fed wrapping up QEx in 2015 I think we are already riding higher on borrowed time.

Which should be great news for all of us and probably also for me personally. Quite frankly it’s tough to continue reporting on an effervescent equities market, day after day, week after week, month after month. Yes, we’ve had a great time playing the futures and the forex side. But the majority of you guys continue to be focused on the equities side and quite frankly I do enjoy seeing the comment section hopping. If I have one wish for Santa then it’s to finally produce a meaningful correction – one that lasts more than just a week or two.

santa_1950

And with that sentiment I would like to wish everyone a very merry Christmas – if you’re not Christian (only about 70% of our contemporaries) then a special happy holidays goes out to you as well. It’s been a wild wild ride but once again we managed to eek out solid profits throughout the year by sticking with our charts. In comparison with a few years ago I believe we have come a long way and we all have matured. There was no other choice – we had to evolve alongside a business that has become a lot more complicated, much faster, and of course more global.

But I hope I speak for all of us when I say that we’re just getting started – a lot of good things have come to fruition this year. For instance Heisenberg was introduced into beta in December of last year and it took almost another whole year for it to mature into what we recently released as Thor. Scott and I have worked very hard and will continue to do so to squeeze one R after the other out of this market.

My sincerest thanks goes out to all of you loyal readers and supporters – you’ve been great and I hopefully this place continues to provide value to your daily trading activities. After over six years I still love running this blog and my final wish for Santa is that one year from now I’ll be sitting here again writing a Christmas post for all of you. Very special wishes and thanks go to my brother from another mother – ‘Convict’ Scott Phillips. You’ve been great and you’re always there when the going gets tough. Thanks for that. Now get back to work! 😉

Happy Holidays!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • wcrayner

    Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a great New Year to Mole and the wily Convict – thanks for all that you do!

  • RacerXX

    Merry Christmas to you too Mr. (and Mrs.) Mole!

  • BobbyLow

    Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all our Steel Rat Brethren all over the world. And many, many thanks to Mole, Scott and Everyone here at the Evil Speculator for sharing their educational trading journey.

  • ridingwaves

    Merry Christmas to you and your families Mole and Scott, ES is the right way to blog….Happy holidays to the rest of the posters and lurkers….cheers to all….I salute you with a Deschutes Brewery- The Abyss…be safe

    on topic-MM’s are starting hitting bio stock winners pretty hard this week….I think we might move down first week of Jan. buying some Long Vix here…

  • Billabong

    SPX 2080 didn’t take long…

  • ds2

    Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you Mole and all the rats here at ES. My job doesn’t allow me to follow along and comment like I used to but I’m still hanging out in the background taking the easy setups when I can and keeping my eye on the Zero. That trend day last week was a nice one! Thanks again Mole!

  • ridingwaves

    5th fastest 1000 pt climb in market history

  • wandering196

    Merry Christmas to everyone!

  • BattleZone

    Thanks Mole and Scott for your hard work, generosity, and insights.
    And thanks to all commenters.
    Happy Holidays everyone!

  • MonkeyBusiness

    Best trading blog by far, keep up the good work Mole. Happy Holidays!

  • mugabe

    Merry Christmas Mole, Scott and all!

  • Billabong

    Is everyone leaving? We still have a whole day ahead of us.

  • Scott Phillips

    Merry Christmas everyone. I feel that Mole and I have taken GIANT STEPS towards improving our skills and systems this year. We have exciting improvements still to make, a lot of work yet undone. I banked a lot of coin this year and I am grateful for the opportunity to do what I love, and help others do the same.

    I’m particularly gratified to see a few of the hard core crew trading extremely well now, building systems of their own and trading them like bosses. I’m very pleased to be involved with BobbyLow’s trader development, who has turned into an exceptional trader. Others here show equal promise, and still others do the same stupid shit they’ve always done, so will get the same stupid results they’ve always got. If you don’t like what life is dishing up to you, sometimes you have to take the radical step of doing something different, and not everyone has the heart to do that.

    What set this year up for Mole and I is the recognition in January 2013 that I was not as good as I needed to be. Not as good as I thought I was. I spent a year and a half learning more about system building and improving my skills in a structured practice environment, right from the start again. I started from scratch, and that admission of humility allowed me to seek out traders better than myself and learn from them. That “beginner mindset”, crucial to the martial arts, has served me extremely well in trading. I tell you for free, the so called “experts” at some other blogs are not making any coin at all.

    What is trading like for me now? The actual execution of my systems rarely involves any angst, win/lose/draw. I rarely make mistakes, and when I do I acknowledge them and move forward. My return on equity is, by any measure, absolutely incredible, world class. I am a professional. I trade for a living. I see no possibility at all that I could blow up, and I should be able to do this for another 40 years.

    My wish for 2015 is that more of the Evilspeculator participants evaluate their own trading performance honestly, make changes as necessary, and work on their practice with the goal of improving.

  • Scott Phillips

    There’s no leaving. Grind it out, right to the end. This is a game of inches!

  • Ronebadger

    Merry Christmas Everyone!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Brilliant comment – thanks for all you do mate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll be here tomorrow – but I don’t see anything worth touching. Not for a lack of looking/effort though!

  • BobbyLow

    I know how hard you’ve worked to become the Consummate Professional that you are Scott and I’m honored and extremely fortunate to have had the experience to learn from you.

    I don’t know how high my trading ceiling will be but I am confident that I’ll be able to achieve my goal that is part of my current business plan. Speaking of confidence, I’ve never been as confident and as motivated going into a new calender year as I am right now.

    I love this business and would like to be involved with it for another 40 years too but that would put me at around 110 years old when it’s all over. 110 years old “might” be out of the question :) but as long as I can do this stuff, I will continue to do it. One thing that might help me along the way is that I finally understand that being an “Unconscious Competent is better than being a “Conscious Competent”.

    Thank you Scott for all your help and I wish you the best over the holidays and beyond.

  • jmoney3000

    Merry Christmas to all!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Scott Phillips

    It’s been a true pleasure to work with and learn from you my friend :-)

  • Billabong

    Good Morning Mole …. it may be only you and me until 6 pm GMT (1 pm EST). If the opportunity presents itself, I’m open to a small scalp today. Instead of a scalp, I’ll call it a Christmas present to put us in a festive mood.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good morning – well, it’s Christmas day – let me poke around if there’s anything worth looking at.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not worth dipping into equities here – slow low vol churn higher right now – everything is compressed and hard to get a good read.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey, NQ may be a play here as it’s approaching support.

  • Billabong

    I haven’t seen much I would consider. It may be a training day before 4 days off … sort of … until Sunday evening.

  • Billabong

    NQ 4th day in a tight range. CL is sporting a 9 day sideways channel between 53.50 and 59.50. It will be interesting to see which direction it’s resolved.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very hard to predict – may just sit around or suddenly take off. Holiday tape – if you play I recommend small position sizes as your stop won’t get filled properly.

  • Billabong

    I hear you…

  • Darkthirty

    ES / YM aren’t tracking either……

  • ridingwaves
  • Billabong

    Did you take on an oil position?

  • Billabong

    That was a nice move on NQ today, but no signals for me. Time to call it a day.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m being very careful with oil Billabong. We are in a slice and dice mode right now. And IMHO, this range and the quirkyness of the holidays make for increased danger.

  • Billabong

    As I prepare to tune out until Sunday night. I would like to wish all of you a Merry Christmas. A special thanks goes to Mole, Scott, Ivan and all the other participants that have helped me grow into a better trader. I made a point yesterday of going through my 2013 and 2014 logs and had a good chuckle on how childish my inputs were in 2013 compared to 2014. Scott’s piece in March was a significant turning point for me, while Mole’s daily inputs and refresher points were critical in forcing me to review my work and skill set. Ivan is the master of market trading psychology and RBT. Thanks to Mole, I look forward to my visits to Evil Speculator and learning from you. Thanks to Scott, I understand what a struggle it is to reach a high level in trading and the mistakes to be avoided. Thanks to Ivan for introducing me to RBT, R, and the hard work required with pencil and paper.

    With this, a Christmas blessing to all on this site and I look forward to our next year together.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Appreciate the kind words – from everyone!

  • Scott Phillips

    OK Guys, put down the egg nog and get back to work. It is extremely common for massive moves to take place between now and 2 Jan.

    I see setups today in GBPJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY , AUDCHF, GBPAUD

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Sounds very familiar !

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong … thank you … make it count … so you do not ‘have to’ trade for the next 40 years!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    EurAud and AudUsd were both a late Christmas gift on the open today … concepts I have shared here before.

  • Darkthirty

    Nutmeg really puts the buzz on!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I setup a few of them last night on Thor. Not much movement just yet…

    Everyone survived X-Mas?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    This morning I took the family car into the local auto dealership. While waiting I picked up an older Fortune (September) magazine to browse.
    I just had to grin when this article plopped into my lap about how the Bull Energy may be ready to run. LOL.

    http://s2.postimg.org/5knpnx961/Fortune_2014.png

    Several take aways for the newbies. Never trust the rags, News Don’t Matter, always use stops, Never say Never.

    -GG

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I like that one: ‘never trust the rags, and never say never’ :-)

  • ridingwaves

    http://s13.postimg.org/e6jcpg4gn/gold_winter_revival.jpg

    wonder if gold will replicate last years move….seems enough shorts are there to provide the fire with Putin and euro QE the match next month

  • ridingwaves

    Natural gas-after Xmas sale, picked up lottery ticket with short leash for coming cold weather across US….

  • bullethead

    When producers are delivering crude to asia, asia is turning it down and then they are returning all the way back to Europe for in-ground storage – this may take a while to play out

  • BobbyLow

    How about this one? :)

    Rags have printed words that “might” be,
    But price is there for us to see,
    Words with two sides end in a quiz,
    But price tells us – like it is,
    Opinions are often wrong,
    While the tale of price is very strong,
    Words can string us all along,
    While price is almost never wrong.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    EXAS :)

    Heard of cologuard yet Scott?

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Price is almost never wrong? Dead wrong. It’s mispricing of assets that provides opportunity. Most you can hope to do with that perspective is ride coat tails. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, it’s practically the point of this blog.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Price is never ever wrong. You assume that the supposed mispricing creates opportunity – the problem with that kind of thinking is that markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent. I don’t mind buying overbought or oversold markets – what matters only is where price (denominated in Dollars) is going, not where it ‘should be going’.

    I take it we both agree on the latter point.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Yeah – We agree for short term index trading etc…

    But here is my case in point – EXAS hit $11 in early May. If you knew the company Inside and out, the fundamentals of the situation …. Then it was a huge opportunity, it was a “no-brainer”… It was Mr. market making a big pricing mistake.

    EXAS is over $28 right now. It’s also going much much higher over the next 5-10 years.

    So price is not always right.

    I’m sure you’re talking about markets being irrational longer than you can stay solvent as in they should be going down rationally. That is you being irrational not the markets.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Yeah – We agree for short term index trading etc…

    But here is my case in point – EXAS hit $11 in early May. If you knew the company Inside and out, the fundamentals of the situation …. Then it was a huge opportunity, it was a “no-brainer”… It was Mr. market making a big pricing mistake.

    EXAS is over $28 right now. It’s also going much much higher over the next 5-10 years.

    So price is not always right.

    I’m sure you’re talking about markets being irrational longer than you can stay solvent as in they should be going down rationally. That is you being irrational not the markets.

  • SirDagonet

    Fundamental vs. technical analysis argument?

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Yeah. Now, people can get their fundamental analysis wrong too of course, just as easily or maybe more so than with TA.

    It’s also much more work.

  • BobbyLow

    I haven’t traded individual stocks in a long time. And of course, companies like the bio tech stock EXAS can be of a different nature regarding the effect of mis-pricing. The same can be said for some small caps as well as start ups.

    However, when talking about indices, or commodities like Oil, price is NEVER wrong. A lot of people including myself thought that the S&P was over priced in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and now 2014. A lot of people including myself also thought that oil was undervalued at $90, $80, $70, and now below $60.

    Because hindsight is never wrong, I would like to point out that “Riding the Coat Tails of these runs would not have been bad at all. Ya think?

    To each their own and we all can have different views, but my hard earned view is that I would much rather “go with the flow”, “ride coat tails” and have the wind at my back than pee against the wind. :)

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    For sure. No disagreement here.

    I wrote an article in October about why oil was fundamentally bearish. :)

    They are long term reasons to be fundamentally bearish on oil & the rest of energy too…

    As for the markets, I think we are in the midst of a 90’s style move on the back of fundamentally disruptive and dramatic technology improvements in the areas of biotech, materials sciences, and energy…

    Ride the coat tails!

  • BobbyLow

    Nothing wrong with Fundamentals as long as it’s realized that the market always overdoes everything in both directions. Qualcom at $1500 per share anyone? When Qualcom was running crazy every day during the Tech Bubble, the price was absolutely correct everyday because it was what it was. All the rest of the noise and fundamentals surrounding it were absolute bullshit. :)

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. There are times I wish I could go back to Biotech which is a great sector but that ship has sailed.

    Good to see that you and Ridingwithwaves can do it successfully.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t trade like that obviously – way above my pay grade.

  • Scott Phillips

    I don’t trade stocks. It’s an experts game and I specialize

  • Scott Phillips

    INCORRECT. You are both right.

    There are two, and only two, theories of investment.

    Theory 1: Buy a mispriced asset at a favorable price. Value investing. Range trading. Scalping. All the same thing.

    Theory 2: Greater Fool Theory. Buy something, irrespective of whether you are paying too much, which is going up in the expectation that a bigger fool will come along and take it off your hands at an even higher price.

    Bobby is a trend trader, which means he exclusively trades theory number 2. Both are valid, and neither is better than the other.

  • Scott Phillips

    You’ve mentioned EXAS many times on this blog, I believe you have most of your portfolio in it.

    Right or wrong, that is not the sort of thing we advocate here, risking everything on one turn of the dice (though I’m happy it came off for you). Put simply, its stupid. Your “I know the company inside and out” is a kind of “talking your own book” which experienced traders recognize as a manifestation of subconscious fear.

    Most people lose in this game. By and large they are thinking about how high their stock is going to go, and how much they are going to make. The successful traders here, without exception, think about how much they will lose when they are wrong and how low it could go before they have to get out.

    You have a very good trade in EXAS, the chart looks nice. A professional would be looking to bank some profits and working out where to trail a stop. You are busy congratulating yourself on the lottery ticket sitting in your pocket, probably wishing you owned even more of it. See how this is loser thinking, even with a winning trade?

  • Scott Phillips

    Nothing wrong with fundamentals. There is a strong tendency to craft a rich and detailed story in your head, which becomes true through for you through the repetition.

    If you can resist that temptation, of believing your own bullshit, then you can build a method around this.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Seriously? Yawn. Watch it go up and to the right for years to come. There is no subconscious fear dude. You recommended I take profit at 25. You would recommend it again and again. Little do you understand that this company is in the infant stages of its growth curve. You apparently have no appreciation for long term cap gains either. You can talk about professional this and professional that, but in the end it’s about making money and I’ve made a lot of it and will make a lot more.

    It is literally like telling someone that bought a bunch of Apple stock when they released their first iPod, that they should have taken profit on their double. How stupid would that look now? I do wish I had more of it, but then again I accumulated thousands of shares over 16 months buying all the dips with all the money I could find in the couch cushions…. And not something I would have been comfortable doing without being quite up to snuff on my subconcious fear inducing fundamentals.

    Fwiw this is only the 3rd time I’ve mentioned EXAS on this blog. And I have only recommended it the 2nd and 3rd time because of the really bad advice I got the first time (when I was sharing a winning company at $15). I got advised to take my “lucky winnings” at $15 and move along. Then you advised me to take my “lucky winnings” and move along at 25. Some other schmoe will inevitably do it again at 45. I only bring it up now for a 3rd time, because of the extremely poor advice received from The Professional … At $15.

    I wouldn’t advice anyone doing what i do. But it certainly isn’t luck of the draw, or gambling.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are technical traders and as such the ‘buy and hold’ approach does not fit into our trading paradigm. Frankly speaking you are preaching to the wrong choir – you are much more an investor than a trader. And that’s not an area I feel offering advice in – simply because I’m a trader.

    In the end it all comes down to this. Do what you do and we will continue to do what we do. If you bank coin doing what you do then I’m happy for you. But we should both not be wasting time warming up the same age old argument – it’s been going on for over a century and neither side will ever be able to convince the other. I love and enjoy being a trader – and obviously what you do works for you. So great – everyone’s happy 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Clearly it’s time that the markets open again – Scott is getting bored out of his mind – LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “If you knew the company Inside and out, the fundamentals of the situation”

    Oh, if I may add – if you truly know the company ‘inside and out’ then you must be on the inside. There is no way of knowing what really goes on behind closed boardroom doors from reading press releases and the sort. And if you do then you are actually engaging in insider trading – and last time I checked that was illegal.

    I take it you are NOT connected to anyone inside that company (i.e. management team or board members) and if you do I don’t want to know. Given that assumption anything you know is an illusion – carefully crafted information you gleaned via online research. Perhaps you even went on site to dig up a bit more truth – possible for miners but IMPOSSIBLE for biotech companies, those secrets are better guarded than Fort Knox. Meaning you may face a hit squad if you really knew insider info about research running into the hundreds of millions – those guys don’t mess around.

    So in essence you know really nothing and you just got lucky. Good for you but enjoy it while it lasts and keep your stop a comfortable distance away 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fundamental traders have completely different personality types than technical traders. The former are information packrats who spend an inordinate amount of time accumulating tea leafs and interpreting them. That’s just not me – but in their defense – I probably spend an equal amount of time reading charts and building strategies 😉

    The latter (the few who survive) learn that price is the ultimate arbiter of truth and managing your risk assures long term success. Unfortunately our camp also attracts the gamblers and the adrenalin junkies but they wash out sooner or later. Which is better? I think it depends on your personality type – how your brain works.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    i meant it figuratively, as in knew all publically available information, scientific publications etc, along with all potential competing products from
    Other companies.

    Oh, I did go tour their lab after the annual shareholder meeting. That was nice.

    No luck. Homework. More than looking at a chart and guessing :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See how the onion keeps peeling? This is simply not how we play the game here at Evil Speculator. I prefer just following charts from the comfort of my home/office/lair/toilet. So us arguing about approach is a complete waste of time, and that was my point all along.

    In any case – good luck with EXAS, I hope it pays for your retirement and then some.

  • mugabe

    price is neither right nor wrong. it is.

  • mugabe

    The point about what currency the price is denominated in is interesting. eg if you trade the nikkei index or ETF, in what currency should you look at the chart, in? or if you trade gold? etc.

  • Billabong

    In a follow-up to the discussion below on the fundamental vs TA approach. I was right where you are back in 2000 being an equity investor. Money was rolling in, research was working, and I couldn’t find a position that wouldn’t work. Fast forward to 2008, money was rolling in, research was working and I couldn’t find a position that wouldn’t work (except for short home builders and banks). Then my ego caught up with me … the USG changed the rules midstream … shorts were called in. That was it, years of research and prep wasted …. the f……. Government changed the f…… rules and cost me a fortune. I then took all of my accounting and analysis books, threw them in a 30 gal garbage bag and dropped them off at the library for their annual book sale. After years of wandering in the trading desert, I found Evil Speculator and Mole. For me, the bottom line was trading not investing was the key. After 10 years of watching the large trading house shenanigans and the Government ready to change the market rules in a heartbeat, I now feel more comfortable with smaller positions, listening to what the market is telling me, and not betting it all on red or black…..

  • Scott Phillips

    EXAS has gone up, basically because of a series of game changing FDA rulings in their favor. Had those rulings not gone their way the stock would be fucked. MANY times legit biotech companies with great products have been fucked by the FDA.

    Luck. Great luck for you. But putting all your eggs in a single biotech stock without a single dollar of revenue pre FDA approval.

    Stupid. Yes you are.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    You take the cake for dumb :)

    See, where you are incoherently and appalling wrong, is that you don’t get that a smart person was able to connect the dots before the FDA approval and CMS reimbursement, that they would be favorable.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Thanks for your brilliant 15 minute analysis. truly breathtaking insight. Lol.

    Here’s a series of blog posts I made on EXAS over the last 16 months.

    Oh, a “professional”, Whitney Tilson, was recommending shorting exact. He’s an expert :)

    1) http://www.endofbull.org/2014/03/exact-sciences-corporation.html
    2) http://www.endofbull.org/2014/09/whitney-tilson-says-to-short-exact.html
    3) http://www.endofbull.org/2014/10/exact-sciences-game-changer-in.html

    Sorry Scotty, but all the information was there to make a strong bet, and I was exactly right all along. Your after the fact shallow opinion is humorous though

  • Scott Phillips

    Maybe you can buy a new trailer home with the few thousand you must have in this stock. I’ll cry myself to sleep in my mansion with my million dollar a year plus income 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    Ever been wrong before? I have! I’m wrong about a trading idea almost every single day of my life.

    You know NOTHING Jon Snow

  • Scott Phillips

    What is a strong bet? What bet would a professional make?

    A professional would try and be in the game for 30 – 40 years, and not win a fortune on one roll of the dice. I think we can all agree on that. A professional would never believe that a company with a promising story (no matter how promising) would be appropriate to risk everything on

    Therefore what constitutes a strong bet would be one that leaves me mathematically no risk of blowing up. Maybe if you felt very strongly about a position maybe 5% at the outside. Personally I risk 1.5% of account size on my regular account and 4% on my “trading for fun” account. To suggest that a company without a SINGLE DOLLAR OF REVENUE in it’s entire history could not blow up is quite ludicrous.

    If betting on biotech stocks was my game (it’s not, but Ridingwaves does well from it) and if taking stock tips off random guys off the internet wasn’t dumb (it is) then I possibly could have risked an absolute maximum of 5% on that. Would it make much difference to the 500% annualized return I’m currently getting in my “for fun” account (over the last 6 months)? Not really, it would be nice, but not a game changer.

    That’s the difference between you and me. I can do it again, because I have skills. You are forced in a position where you could not repeat your good fortune, so you have to ride this one all the way.

    Look – I know you just want someone to tell you how awesome you are. The internet is HUGE and that person exists. Just not here. Go find them :) Suggest stocktwits.

  • Scott Phillips

    So this is the next apple?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was there that day – Sept 19 2008, right? I lost a lot of money that day.

  • Scott Phillips

    If it’s not just luck – why not repeat it? Do it again! It’s just brainpower after all, and you are the smartest guy in the room! Come one, what hot stock is next?

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Sorry I would tell you but you’re a clown. Also there’s no need for another hot stock EXAS will go up 5-10x over the next 5 years :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Sorry mate I’ve had enough. Mole or one of the admins can you ban this guy please.

  • http://EndOfBull.org/ Pontificus

    Did I stutter?

  • Billabong

    Yes. I actually heard the market speak on Thursday afternoon, 18 Sep. Called around to find out what was going on … the bastards already knew … the real question remains on who was naked shorting and had to CYA at the expense of retail. The 19th was a blood bath and they weren’t finished then … they forgot about the consumer credit companies and added them on Monday.

  • Scott Phillips

    Whoever banned that fucktard, THANK YOU :-)

  • BobbyLow

    I was short Capital One back then because of their shaky car loans and their issuance of credit cards to anyone who could fog a mirror. I was also short a couple of other banks at the time. When the rules got changed and they began to call shares in along with the future ban on new shorts, I got whacked too.

    And to add insult to injury after the Government Bailed out Capital One with Taxpayer Money, Capital One tried to raise the interest rate on my credit card from 4% Fixed to 15% Variable. (I had an excellent FICO credit score of over 800) Not that they cared, but after I called and my complaints fell on deaf ears, I finally told them I’m not going to pay the higher interest rate to subsidize all the deadbeats they have on the books and that they can stick my credit card up their ass.

  • BobbyLow

    I didn’t ban him (I’m not sure I can ban anybody Scott) but I deleted most of the derogatory comments.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I miss all the fun.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah, I saw the blacklist feature too but I was afraid that I might have blown something up if I hit it. :)

    I have no problem deleting shitty comments but I want to leave the “Banning” stuff to Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who got banned?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ban away – or at least send me an email if you do. Thanks!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Extra points for the GOT reference.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You should have the privileges. But every time I email you I don’t get a response – so I don’t know how to contact you 😛