Houston, We Have Lift Off!

I just love it when an evil scheme works out as anticipated. At the end of week 48 I suggested a short term shake out was on the horizon due to blatant monkey business on the volatility side plus historical precedence for week 49. And like clockwork this is exactly what we got. Last Friday I surmised that the ongoing honeypot period was about to come to an end and that the bulls were about to do what they always do so well in the final three weeks of the year: stick it to the bears!

And there you have it. The E-Mini has now sliced through a volume hole that has been its nemesis for over two months. We may see a bit of a retest here tomorrow but as long as that diagonal support line stays intact we should be heading for 1440.

Here’s are the daily and weekly Net-Line panels – as you can see we busted a daily NLBL today and are in the process of attacking a weekly as well. If the E-Mini can hold the weekly until Friday we should be set for an EOY spike higher.

That 1440~ range is where the VIX should also touch base with that diagonal support line it’s been building since early fall. I am not certain what will happen there – I think a little shake out to scare off weak hands is probably the most likely scenario. But if we punch higher toward the end of December then we may indeed see the VIX below the 15 mark again. Wouldn’t that be nice… as you know I love to sell complacency, but that’s a different story. If you don’t know what I’m talking about then I suggest you catch up on my long term update last Sunday.

The Nursery:

INTC – nice entry there last week and we’re off to the races. I would do nothing here right now – if this really is the rocket then we must let her fly until we dispose of the third stage.

AUD/USD – finally! Took a bit of doing but we got a nice entry which should take us into 1.059ish.

Cable – we had to wait another day to finally get that 25-hour SMA entry. But it was well worth the patience as it’s time to take short term profits. However, it may also trigger a daily NLBL today so it’s possible this runs much higher – thus I suggest you keep a few lottery tickets in the running. Expect a bit of turbulence ahead however as the hourly is suggesting resistance.

Bonus Chart:

Here’s a little bonus chart for the leeches. I’m seeing a possible retest variation sell on NLFX. Put your stop above the 89.78 high and grab a few lottery ticket puts. By the way that NLBL below will expire today, thus aiding the downside cause. Again, this is a very speculative setup – only take on a tiny position size.

More goodies below for my intrepid subs:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Before I let you go another friendly reminder that you can now also follow my posts on Google+, so please add me to your circle if you haven’t already.

Cheers,

 

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 11th, 2012 at 2:27 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • ridingwaves

    market is saying today that the fed will add $45 billion in asset purchases…

  • Joe_Jones

    priced in. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    eggcellent.

    may be a little overhead resistance on the INTC
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p68484068698

  • newbfxtrader

    maybe they will short the market with the money this time….

  • AMCabrera

    mmm aud/usd 1.0590. Muy interesante! If she comes to me again at 1.0500 Im shorting there instead of last nights 1.0450 mark.

  • AMCabrera

    interest rate hike. Wait do people still do that? lol

  • Joe_Jones

    Lol, that would be like Christmas in my account for the next 10 year

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Some of my positions are blasting thru BBands. It’s not a small stuff, but etf’s like EEM and SMH. And I see a bunch of others doing same.
    At this point the only way this trend continues is up and up without pause. Not something we see very often.
    Santa may be lost…

  • Skynard

    Wowa! FOMC or what?

  • AMCabrera

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegging_(sexual_practice)
    this is the spx definition of pegged.

  • Joe_Jones

    as usual, retail got pegged today

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    fib fans don’t work.
    [snicker]
    bring out the Kraken JJ, bears open fire!  (JK)

  • Joe_Jones

    Houston, we’re running out of fuel and coming down.

    [JJ grabs popcorn and pours another Scotch]

  • newbfxtrader

    Crack dealer coming tomorrow 2pm eastern…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – boy, that shake out really came early.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back from whence we came – a bit early but keep an eye on the trend line and the 1420 trigger line.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    any chance of a video today?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Maybe later tonight or tomorrow morning.

  • Microwave_Prince

    1435 tagged on the dot.

  • newbfxtrader

    Whats your ratio of wins when you drink and trade?!

  • Schwerepunkt

    He’s dead Jim . . . 

  • Joe_Jones

    The writing was on the wall with the ISEE numbers this a.m.
    Retail wet fart days usually fizzle out after lunch time.

  • Skynard

    In SPY front 146 calls:) Gap support!

  • newbfxtrader

    Ah I was wondering why I was sore all this time…..

  • Joe_Jones

    Don’t go there… I wouldn’t want to set a bad example on my fellow younger rats. ;-)

  • MrMargin

    Just what I expected. SPX is still holding above the 50d, but that daily candle doesn’t bode well at all. We could revisit 1400.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     We will be lucky if it stops at 1400

  • Pervergence

    Why’s that??

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     PF chart for clarity.
    If 1400SPX broken than all this business will become a giant bull trap.
    We are not as far as it seems

  • Microwave_Prince

    Will be lucky if it stops at 1200.

  • Pervergence

    Will be lucky if it stops at 600

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Hold your horses, cowboy.
    This is a bull market, you know

  • Pervergence

    Let’s see….1423.25 right now……the Reid statement got a little ride and then back to the regular stuff

  • ridingwaves

    easy cowboy…we need to break thru 1400 first…

    might as well play the mole move….he’s all over this and why not hold things up thru first of year to allow MFunds to move money to correct sectors…

  • Pervergence

    1440

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Don’t count on “cash on sidelines” or MutFunds.
    It’s just us and Goldman sucks (o, my bad english)
    See outflows

  • Pervergence

    Oh whoops…….1440 is higher…..my bad

  • MrMargin

    As I was saying earlier, this move with the consolidation before the final pop and fade very much looks like the end of a leg up and not the start of the middle section. Thus, we can expect another correction before the actual rally starts. The obvious first target is the low from last week. I also still have my eyes on the 200d at 1386 as a secondary target.

  • ridingwaves

    even more reason they take it up…need the stragglers and retail to act accordingly…mutual funds will rotate, plus a lot of foreign money pouring into market…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    /es 1432, did I mention price likes to swing around fib fan lines?
    it’s FOMC, but humor me. ;-)

  • Pervergence

    Well ain’t that somethin”

  • Pervergence

    Actually “retail” has been more right than wrong of late…….witness our successful hedge funds

  • Pervergence

    What wave you guys figure this is????

  • AMCabrera

    actually no one is ever wrong its those pesky margin calls ;)

  • Pervergence

    bastids gettin in the way of makin money….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    5th.

    3rd was end of Nov.
    (wait, what the H…forum is this!?)

  • Pervergence

    a fifth, 5th, or V…th

  • AMCabrera

    literally nzd/usd is something I have not seen has far as order book goes. I just recently started following it more often past year so maybe it has been like this before.

  • Pervergence

    or v

  • ridingwaves

    true!

    but the feds actions so far are like huge otm calls that keep paying off, somehow…

    I’m a bear under fed sheep clothing..is it the right time to take off that ugg boot with Mole seemingly dead on so far…seasonal factors etc…

  • Skynard

    Roger that Houston:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb
  • Microwave_Prince

    Hard to tell which is more of a bubble – market breadth or complacency. I think the drop in advancers vs decliners over the next few years will make 2008 pale in comparison.

  • amokta

    Whitney Houston, we have a problem. The market seems to be on crack.
    After escaping the Volume Black Hole, it seem to be heading into deep space
    However, even here, we must be beware the Great Bear
    http://starryskies.com/The_sky/constellations/ursa.major.bear.jpg

    On a serious note, be agnostic, look at the evidence, as per Moles excellent charts above.
    Take setups, not toss-ups.

  • Microwave_Prince

    I’m long term bullish oil and volatility. Bearish equities, gold, etc.

  • AmazingLarry

    With 10 days to go till the zombies attack and 20 till the….wait a sec….

  • thepercolator

    FYI – /KCH13 posted an ID & its also a RVB.  Seasonality is bullish, public opinion shows only 17% bulls and the COT is bullish with the exception of the small specs. 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    careful ! You might get banned if you start talking waves! :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I have been looking at coffee and it’s a bit of a mess right now. It’s attempting to build a floor but 155 seems where sellers keep kicking it in the ass. This is not a bad spot to be long – perhaps with a stop below 146.35.

  • AMCabrera
  • newbfxtrader

    You may have to redo that video again this friday….

  • AMCabrera

    no two days ago yes I was worried. Now I look at it and say “really”. Straight line up always equals straight line down. Unfortunately,  I have already taken losses from the 8200 sell and i have started using my reserve account which is still negative even with the latest sell from yesterday. 

  • AMCabrera

    aud/jpy is really high too. I just now looked at it.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    AUD/JPY, I was just working on it.

    http://s14.postimage.org/87pe9tl4v/joker.png
    -Gerb

  • AMCabrera

    wow, I mean its really high and running on helium.

  • AMCabrera
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/580f002c-bab7-4ecb-b56a-5d2357d0a6da/2012-12-12_0738.png
    its not showing up in the culumative chart but its officially double green. Buy orders on the way up and buy orders on the way down…The Convincing has been achieved. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    there’s still this little thing called FOMC/EOY thing, so expect turbulence..?

  • AMCabrera

    exactly and going straight up is not turbulent ;)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    well, it has been a nice run since November.
    fan line to fan line is typically a fast run when they are wide apart.
    for those wondering what I’m speculating..
    the double ceiling will be a place to ‘hang out’ and create confusion.
    if a reversal doesn’t occur, the breaking of overhead resistance could cause a pop to a New Year’s new high around 90?
    you be the judge.

    -Gerb

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸




    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Happy Halloween!
    2. Wrapping Up The Month
    3. Getting Paid On Thursday
    4. RIPQE
    5. Strike The Iron While It’s Hot
    6. Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman
    7. Kitchen Sink Monday
    8. Quiet Friday Morning Briefing
    9. Thursday Morning Briefing
    10. Muppet Time!