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How do You Know They’re Lying?
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How do You Know They’re Lying?

by The MoleApril 27, 2010

by gmak

Their lips are moving.

The yield on Greek 2 year bonds is higher than that of Venezuela. In fact, it is the highest rate IN THE WORLD. Soon the debt will be toxic enough for GS to do God’s work and stick it in a CDO-squared to push off on unsuspecting foreign investors. Then they can pump each other up with profanity in internal emails and self-congratulations on duping the suckers yet again, and eternally with the .gov’s blessing.

In the meantime, Lloyd is going to swallow his pride and thank the taxpayer for their support – all the while pretending that GS has paid back every cent with interest. Pay no attention to the fact that Lloyd’s boyz are still responsible for about $21 billion in TLGP loans which are FDIC insured – meaning you are still on the hook for them. By happy coincidence, this is just over the amount that the boyz paid themselves in bonuses. From your wallet to God’s hands. Meanwhile, their favourite uncle-shareholder is showing that he is not beyond twisting legislative arms to keep his face in the trough. Oink me!

Thank goodness for the NFL draft to distract the masses while they’re fleeced. Welcome to the broken clock.

OverNight

First, here is a link to a section on investor sentiment. It’s well worth a read. It says that the dumb money (that’s us) is overwhelmingly bullish while the smart money remains ambivalent.

http://tinyurl.com/2cm5agt

Second, here is a lesson on how to properly draw channels around waves. Focus on channel drawing – and how to modify the channel based on the length of each wave.

http://tinyurl.com/35tzfxq

Finally, Noma of Copenhagen has been named the #1 restaurant in the world. El Bulli of barcelona has won second (and was first for the last 4 years). third is the Fat Duck from the UK. Gordon Ramsay didn’t even make the top 100.

The Data today includes the CaseShiller home price index, the Richmond FED mfg Index, and Consumer confidence.

Asia was red, except for Japan. The fear trade is back on. Europe is red except for Iceland (I don’t know – check the CDS spreads). The DAX has been selling off since the first hour and has almost closed the gap up from yesterday. Only Utilities are green at this time and Financancials and Consumer Discretionary are leading the market lower. Breadth to the downside is strong. This sets the tone for the ES and the SPX for today. I repeat: It looks like the risk trade is off. ES wandered sideways for most of the night, and then sold off with the DAX to find support at the S2 pivot.

  • R2: 1220 = Not likely with the fear trade back on.
  • R1: 1214 = Around the high from yesterday. It’s possible today – but, IMO, not very likely given the sentiment. I see this as outside the range for today.
  • Neutral: 1210.75 = Looks like this area will be the top of any range that gets going.
  • S1: 1205 = Not a factor yet. Might act as resistance as ES tries to crawl off of S2.
  • S2: 1201.50 = Looks like this is the bottom of any range.

Note that ES put in a local wave 5 down to get to the S2 pivot.  ES is being remarkably well-behaved TA-wise this morning. We’re looking for the ABC wavelets up – where I see ES = 1207.50 as the top of this move (a TD resistance level). I don’t see any data points that could change sentiment this morning, so if that point is reached then it is likely that the S2 pivot will be tested again on the way down.

[amprotect=1,9,5,2]

DAILY SPX CHART

Some key points in the chart:

Bearish

  1. TD Pressure has another low risk sell on (the last one is still active from April 16).
  2. SPX has not pushed through the upper Bollinger.
  3. The 62% FIB remains a barrier
  4. The 2-day bar pattern is bearish, so is the 1 day.
  5. SPX has /is putting in a TD wave 5 up – to be followed by an ABC correction.
  6. The world abounds with bad news

Bullish

  1. The Bollinger bands, 55-day SMA are sloping up.
  2. Support lies below at 1200.83
  3. Higher lows and higher highs.
  4. The 2-day bar pattern has seldom indicated a top.

Of course the 2-day bar pattern would NOT indicate a top. Yesterday was not a local high. (d-oh). As well, the 2 day bar combination of ’25’ and ’41’ has NEVER preceeded a top. In fact, of the 12 times that this combination has occurred while SPX is in a postiive daily slope, CLOSE < OPEN 58% of the time.  When looking at only the ’41’ bar and a positive slope, CLOSE < OPEN for 49% of the time vs CLOSE > OPEN for just 40% of the time. The odds favour CLOSE < OPEN today. The most likelyl bar shape is ’52’ followed by ’32’.  A ’52’ means that the CLOSE < OPEN but CLOSE > LOD. A ’32’ means that the HOD is above the OPEN, and the CLOSE < OPEN but > LOD. (clear as mud?).

It’s a good sign that these probabilities are in synch with what the ES is saying. I would look to get short in the 1207 – 12111 range after the turn back down. I’m not sure if it’s worthwhile getting short betwen 1201.50 and 1205ish. I am loathe to chase ES down into the hole, is why.

[/amprotect]

Summary: Sentiment is negative. The risk trade is off. It looks like a down day off of the open. Pick your spot to get short and don’t chase. Lloyd is in the house.

My Best Regards.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gmak

    From Bobthehorse in the previous post:

    After being broadly absent for a couple of weeks on my volcation in Bangkok, I wanted to update people on my thoughts. We have been running a decent short position since March (when S&P hit 1140) through Eurostoxx at 2900. That is pretty much exactly where the Eurostoxx is now after recent under-performance. I can only justify holding the position this long by explaining again the structure within which I trade.

    Equities are an asset class which represent expectations for nominal growth. So the factors which affect equities are 1) Real Growth; 2) Inflation and 3) Sentiment. Let's look at each of these.

    On the Real Growth side – we have been bullish since Jan 2009. We are in a big inventory restocking cycle – I was banging on about this last year on this site. BUT – a lot of the indicators suggest this is peaking. Leading indicators are losing momentum and the key is the second derivative. It seems clear to me that we have stopped accelerating – this wave of positive earnings announcements reflect what has happened but going forward, we should not expect the same magnitude.

    2) Inflation – this is the big one. The Fed (and others) have been successful in offsetting the deflationary pressure of deleveraging and making markets fear inflation. That has forced cash out of money market funds into inflation protected assets like equities. That can potentially continue further but the key to watch for would be signs of stress in sovereign debt as that would reflect fears that inflation was beginning to get out of control. You saw the first signs of this last month with some poor US bond auctions and the 10yr breaking 4%. Still early days and now the solvency concerns in Europe are causing a flight to 'quality' and US bonds have rallied but we saw the first cracks there.

    3) Sentiment – as noted on this blog, Put/Call, ISEE metrics at all-time highs. Enough said.

    So if growth isn't accelerating, and bond markets are starting to put the pressure on governments to hold back inflation, and sentiment is already at max – what are the odds favouring? Clearly a correction of intermediate-term magnitude.

    The primary reason why I think this could be big is the structure of the EU. It is so inflexible that it prevents countries using a partial (and temporary) devaluation of their currency to stimulate growth to help them grow out of a fiscal deficit. So countries like Greece and Portugal really have very little options other than default or very severe deflation. Deflation is a path to social unrest so I think default is actually the best option for these countries. Preferably outside the Euro-area as then the haircut on the bonds could be lower (although there would also be an FX hit). But looking at the Greek economic numbers, for Greece to get any meaningful benefit from a default, the haircut needs to be at least 40% but most bonds are only pricing in half of that.

    The problem for the world is that Europe growth is going to be very poor. The EU is like a massive company with lots of cross-holdings and intra-company sales. If the PIGS default, it's mainly European banks which take the hit. If the PIGS have a huge fiscal tightening, it's the EU which suffers most as they are all big export markets for each other. Basically, the EU has a big problem unless they can devalue the Euro to help out the PIGS.

    And Europe is still a huge market in global terms and this will start to impact on US. When it does, the S&P will start to reflect the problems which it has so far tried to ignore.

  • amokta

    “BP shares fall 3% on FTSE 100 despite “forecast busting” Q1 profit”
    (mind you the oil rig disaster could be the reason?)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    GMak – channeling on waves can be replaced with Andrews Pitchfor with more consistent less subjective results and it might produce results nothing short of amazing

    http://screencast.com/t/ODg0Yjg5YTA

    http://screencast.com/t/MDM3ZDcx

  • gmak

    Great idea!

  • ricebowl

    IMO if we're going to set new highs on SPX, we need to turn today.

  • gmak

    IF you have a bullish bias, then the current ES level might not be a bad place to start working into an intra-day long position – trading the potential up-movement on the range.

    As I said earlier, if you have a bearish bias, waiting for a better entry point might be wise (higher up).

    There are no guarantees, but it is better not to chase ES into the hole. It's always better to be wishing that you were in the market, than praying that you were out. 🙂

  • gmak

    On the EUR:

    I hear that CBs have been buying from 1.3350 down to 1.3330; The short trade is very crowded and without a move below support down around 1.3270 – there is the possibility of a short squeeze.

    On the 2 min chart, EUR is in a long wave 3 with descending Bollingers.(the lower one is at 1.3270ish). Looks like support is holding at this level for now. There is a pivot at 1.3252 and I think the market is aiming there to try to trigger and run stops. Continued support here increases the chances of a move up (who is left to sell as NY volume picks up – if NY doesn't sell on their own?).

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I used to work for BP and there was a saying internally that a barrel of oil canned was worth $80…….a barrel spilt costs $2Bln…….spillages are costly in terms of clean up and reputational damage.

    That's going to be in the news for weeks as green activists start to demonstrate about the environmental damage that's been caused.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    going to R1?

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks.

    It's early in the day but took profit on some previously existing Short May SPY Calls as Delta was getting too Low on them. I'm now slightly net Long overall and will consider writing some June Calls to either get back to net neutral or net short again before I have to leave for a few hours between noon and 3:30.

    In the mean time, here we go again with the on again, off again Greek shit.

    BTW, another Great Opening Post GMAK!

  • gmak

    Glad that I can be of service. Thanks!

  • gmak

    R1 is a little too high up there for today on SPX. R1 = 1221.34 on my charts. R1 = 1214 on ES is more plausible but I see 1210.75 – 1211 (ES) as the more likely top of range. <shrug>

  • ricebowl

    Excellent advice.

  • ricebowl

    Looks like the HOD, but who knows. I'm thinking about going back to cash.

  • ricebowl

    For better or worse I went back to cash. See you all tomorrow.

  • raised_by_wolves

    This is my new emerging markets times silver-to-gold ratio divided by S&P 500 indicator.

    I'm keeping in mind Mole's triangle motif . . .
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    while drawing lines and shit . . .
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    on a low dose of LSD (1/8 hit) . . .
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • gmak

    I have a platitude for every situation. 🙂

  • gmak

    Have a good one!

  • gmak

    But once you have a direction, how do you know which of the 3 factors will be the mover for that change? i.e. if you see a break down, will it be because of EEM declining, the EEM staying the same and silver-to-gold declining?, or the SPX500 going up?

  • ricebowl

    You, too, and thanks for your daily analysis. Good luck with whatever you're trading right now.

    It's just uncanny how SPX dropped 2 points literally seconds after I sold. It's best to be in cash when you're unsure of the market action.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    oops, I forgot you use ES not SPX… I meant we were going up and I remembered your values… but you might get 1221

  • gmak

    IF the current SPX bar stays and closes at or above 1209.44, then a bullish cross on the 9 and 34 pMA is coming up – and the target woud be SPX = 1212.59; However, below this, 1207.77 (SPX) looks like interim support, with additional TD support at 1207.07

  • gmak

    That's on the 5 min SPX chart.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    WTF do you want that for?

    EMM SILVER GOLD SPY

    all wrapped up into what?

  • bananaben

    This is excruciating for me. I dumped the last of my shorts yesterday and for the first time in weeks it looks like we're going to get two red days in a row. Where the hell are all the dip buyers now? Where's the rally? I should just let you all know in advance when I close out short positions cause then you will know the market can decline.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    interesting, spx dived beyond mid-rise (had found support on the D line) and before a k100%….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and better, we broke SPX 1204… when it is retested from below (and if it holdss as resistence) it might be a good rip to short aiming for 1194 to 1187 spx

  • gsavli

    there was quite a strong line of support today (PPT?) and the market fell through. Looks like they came to their senses and will let this market correct properly for 1-2%, before continuing on its way to the moon.

  • raised_by_wolves

    If ((EEM*(SLV/GLD))/SPY) breaks to the upside, I'll switch to (EEM/SPY) to see if EEM is outperforming SPY. If yes, I'll switch to SPY to see if it's moving up. If yes, I'll consider going long EEM.

  • yudhisthira

    Breaking lower spx triangle line. Nice RUT more resilliant.

  • gmak

    You're so cute when you're that optimistic. 🙂

    ________________________________

  • skynard

    If SPX 1197 then 1190

  • gsavli

    nice stop sweeping

  • gsavli

    no floor beneath the market so far

  • yudhisthira

    RUT broke line.

  • rosocecasita

    Gold and Market starting to uncouple…

    The Divergence in the force grows stronger!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bears are pussies – most of bears already covered and salivating over this drop now
    pussies

  • gsavli

    looks good for one of those chinese style corrections of 5% daily 🙂

  • yudhisthira

    Finally some $profit.

  • skynard

    If 1190 SPX lost the bears will be back in full force

  • rosocecasita

    I gotta give it up to the Evil Speculator Crew!

    Fucking Hardcode here =)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    only if SPX 1184 falls…

  • skynard

    Agree! How are ya Hammy?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    that's why hamsters are chosen to man the last stand

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, the (SLV/GLD) part of ((EEM*(SLV/GLD))/SPY) may be superfluous but it makes charting more enjoyable. Doesn't that shit have a certain unexplainable geometrical beautiful, or is it just me?

    (EEM/SPY) is essential because it filters your decisions whether to trade EEM. If you only look at EEM, you're bound to overtrade. Using a ratio in conjunction keeps from you from trading when EEM doesn't have a performance edge, long or short.

    Doesn't this make sense, or am I fuckin' out of my mind?

  • shortcover

    greece to junk…still have some VXX up near 20 i want out of…and need to write FAZ, SDS, TZA calls…come to papa!!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    a stoped digestion (overdid diner) but I'll live

  • amokta

    Ok, why are markets falling?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it is more fun when it gets destroyed and goes right to the deep shit it belongs to in this lost country

  • skynard

    correction, maybe

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    reaching for my dictionary

  • amokta

    ok, will try to be nimble this time, rather than 'waiting for P3'

  • rosocecasita

    Sellers are selling!

    Think of it this way.. the Drunkard found a box of booze and is on top of the roof.. about to do a trick and yells 'HEY EVERYBODY WATCH THIS!!!!” so…. everyone is watching…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    did you finally covered? 🙂 (J/K)

  • rosocecasita

    Aye, smoke may be rising over Rome now.

    This summer might be very hot =/

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    that a-hole never gives up – disgusting personality
    http://screencast.com/t/MDBhMmQwZmEt

  • skynard

    :-))))))))))))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Ignore the EWT stuff?” WTF!

    Gmak – I happen to practice EWT – and many here are interested in the new dimension I am trying to add to it. Let's not start to criticize each other's work, shall we?

  • bananaben

    You bastards can all thank my ass for closing out my shorts yesterday. It's almost like they are looking at my account and when I finally capitulate then it's bombs away.

  • Onorio

    FUCK! 30pts red candle?!!

    BEAR-MARKET IS BACK 😀 LMAO

  • skynard

    That sure was a nice candle on the 60 min.

  • yudhisthira

    I seemed to have that transparent count. I went to dollar cost averaging TZA instead.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I don't know why, but I do know what (though after the fact). We just experienced a return to 20-day period VWAP in a (less than) one hour bar.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you bananaben – whatever you are doing – keep doing it.

  • gsavli

    now, let's not get overexcited, this is usually the point, where we get a reversal (nq chart):

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-C49F_4BD6F902.html

    but, what is different today is the speed of this slump, so it may be different this time 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    Relax, SLV is only down 11 cents 😉

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Or perhaps just a different sort of shafting !!

  • Tronacate

    Every NQ accumulation attempt seems to be getting sold into hard……..looking at 5min

  • skynard

    Come on BEARS, lets get the MOJO out and get this fucker under 1183 SPX! Boy would that screw allot of folks.

  • gmak

    So the combo is an early-warning system of sorts. Neat idea.

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    What I meant was focus on how to draw and modify channels as opposed to trying to get a lesson in EWT from the post. I'm not in the way. I'm agnostic and you can practice any religion you want.

  • Tronacate

    If the NQ heads for the bottom TL of the broadening wedge………we have alot of downside left

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    A back up of the truck would be nice for a re-entry……

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is definitely not how it sounded mate – read it several times. And if I interpreted it this way others did as well.

  • bobthehorse

    Just covered some short, take myself broadly flat – just a day trade really.

  • skynard

    Wow! VIX up 18%

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we had an almost perfect double k0% and a sub 15 rsi, this will be the rip to short if you're feeling lucky when we get to 1204spx

  • gmak

    Mole, the one thing I am sure of ist that you do not see things as others do. 🙂 However, if you want to hash this out in public – go to it. I have better things to do with my time.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I interpreted it this way: “Here's a lesson on how to draw channels; if you're not an EW technician, don't be intimidated by the EW parts; ignore them for now to focus on learning how to draw channels.”

  • skynard

    This is definately a W3! Are they teasing?

  • skynard

    Nope!

  • bobthehorse

    Rationale is Europe is shut so no more scary price action from there, 1190/85 area has been solid as hell recently so I am not going to assume it simply goes without some reaction from here. Eurostoxx is down 4.4% today! so any minor bounce in ESM0 is going to be turbo charged on the eurostoxx. so essentially happy to go flat here looking for a small bounce to put the position back on, either tonight or tomorrow morning. But I am not going long – this is a market to be short or flat now.

    Bananaben – don't worry. There's going to loads of opportunity to get involved. We are going to 920!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Why don't you just edit your post for clarity when you have a chance (you may be to busy trading so don't worry about it now)?

  • raised_by_wolves

    This is what you meant, right?

    “Here's a lesson on how to draw channels; if you're not an EW technician, don't be intimidated by the EW parts; ignore them for now to focus on learning how to draw channels.”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cub….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Gmak…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Boss…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well it was read in public and private retractions have very little value. I found your comment a bit insulting btw – you have plenty of time to engage in discussion here so I'm sure you have enough time to sort out a possible misunderstanding with the founder of this blog.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    same logic here – 1182 was/is good support, covered entire /ES position (almost from the top) will have to watch today's close to know what next
    http://screencast.com/t/ODc1M2Q3

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    went long calls MOS and FCX

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He said 'ignore the EWT stuff' – which leaves very little room for interpretation. In my book.

  • Tronacate

    jesus christ……..sure you're not getting like MLMT??……..I didn't find it to be an EWT slam at all

  • yudhisthira

    Zero lite in danger of falling off bottom of computer screen.
    Want to unload and reload sometime today.

  • bananaben

    Thanks Bob! Sometimes I feel like the biggest loser! Anyway, I'm not chasing this sucker – I suspect we will be grinding higher by the end of the week again. GDP numbers might be stronger than expectations and the employment figures next week are likely to improve. I'm totally with you though and counting on a move to the 900's by the end of the year and then possible rechallenge of the March lows in Q1 2011. It's what happens between here and July/Aug that I'm not sure about and I deferred to Mole's judgement that we will go higher.

  • rosocecasita

    Wouldn't it be better to simply hold short then?

  • rosocecasita

    Judging by the comments from yesterday, does MLMT actually trade?

    Did I seriously dole out undo praise?

    Damn me for opening my mouth.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • Tronacate

    You're not quite lovers and you're not quite friends…..after the thrill is gone

  • yudhisthira

    Just conditioned by all the tremendous recoveries we've had this year.

  • momac

    crap, what a day to have trouble with the tos platform, I can't believe it, I've been waiting for this for weeks and I missed it. Damn
    I missed most all of this move, is it time to go long now? is that all there is?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    consolidation – watch break in anydirection (me think UP)
    http://screencast.com/t/YTAwYzEwY

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    fine here
    always try to shut and restarts TOS – different server might fix it

  • raised_by_wolves

    “Ignore the algebraic forms for now and just focus on the arithmetic.” The link he provided assumes you know “algebra” (EWT) but is actually a lesson on speed arithmetic (channel drawing). Given the context of the link, “ignore the EWT stuff” doesn't come off as anti-EWT whatsoever to me.

    That said, I think Gmak should man up to having written a statement that is too easily misinterpreted. He should edit it for clarity (Gmak: feel free to copy-paste my interpretation of what you wrote if that's what you indeed meant).

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    Every trader or investor is responsible for their own due diligence.

  • gsavli

    up is too obvious 🙂

  • texpresso

    is mccaskill a complete idiot or is she just completely out of her league here?

  • amokta

    Does Greece Lightning strike twice?
    By the way, i bought some HTZ puts yesterday – anyone feel this is going lower
    Also, implied volatility – can it go up if a share price shoots up – how is it calculated?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gmak: Feel free to copy-paste my interpretation (in one of my comments below) of what you wrote if that's what you indeed meant.

  • bananaben

    Whad you talkin about Willis?

  • skynard

    One more banana peel left before switching gears.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    why can't we all… get along?

    Gmak, get your feathers down a bit, the phrase was unhappy, I know your preference goes to Demark and demarkians usualy consider that EWT is too “free-style” for their taste. And you also know that Mole swears by EWT (and so do I though with some heretic stances) and this is HIS LAIR. Regardless of your initial intention (and I do believe you just meant it as a good and quick guide for channel drawing) Mole's request for a formal apology is not unreasonable.

    Mole, Gmak seems stressed, you always knew he's not into EWT, give him some time to cool off and talk things through.

    Raised… stop molesting and stirring

  • ricebowl

    It was merited. He has made a lot of good calls lately. IMO he is a natural scalper.

    What gmak said is true, too; you shouldn't give advice to others if you have no skin in the game. Most of the time when I post a prediction, it's *after* I've taken my position in puts or calls. If my prediction is wrong, I take a haircut.

  • yudhisthira

    Missouri state auditor. Waste and fraud is her forte. I cheer her on.

  • elliott_surfs

    Best thing of all – they have to sit through this idiot screaming at them. I could watch this shit all day

  • ricebowl

    I'm long from 1191 with no hedge. It's not the best entry, but I'm expecting a corrective move to ~1197. Wish I'd have shorted 1210 like I had thought to. Could've, would've, should've.

    I have posted before that 1187 has to be broken to confirm a trend change, and it wasn't; that said, I'm going to have to renege on my calls for fresh SPX highs. I think the mid-term top is in.

    Back to my cave now. Good luck.

  • elliott_surfs

    Who knew using “bookie” would reaaaally rub 'em the wrong way

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    anyone wants to bet that dollar is going to explode to 84 tomorrow?
    http://screencast.com/t/ZjIzOGIwMmQ
    it is better – because there is no day after tomorrow for dollar!

  • Onorio

    We should face some consolidation here, maybe we selloff at the EDO and gap down tomorrow.

  • rosocecasita

    When a Down day happens… and the Bears are fighting amongst themselves…

  • amokta

    Vorsicht: Just to note that we have had a couple of seemingly big down days in recent week or so, but we have not made new lows, and it seems the grind should still be assumed to be incessantly upwards?

  • http://colechambers.com cc
  • rosocecasita

    Kk, I guess it was the flip-flopping on calls, guess it makes sense as a scalper.

    I still am a medium term trader, as in weeks-> a few months.

    The PUTS are back up to where I bought them… YAY! now the big question, Buy-Hold-Sell!

  • yudhisthira

    A free market should require that all derivatives be done on open exchanges where parties have to disclose what they’re buying and selling and have enough capital to pay up if their bets go wrong. This private party crap does not fairly price them.

  • ricebowl

    Congratulations! What strike/underlying/month did you buy?

    You have to ask yourself whether or not we've turned the corner and what your pain threshold is. SPX 1250 is still on the table, although it just got a whole lot less likely.

    I do think we've turned the corner, but we just tanked 1.7% in a day. Remember Mole's post in January about Pavlov's dogs. The 30-min chart is moving back to the 20-SMA which would make a decent short entry. It is also possible that we head back up to the 1200s and kiss the upper band, too. I am a scalper, so I'll be switching between puts, calls, and cash, and you should probably ignore most of my posts because I am so focused on the short-term.

  • yudhisthira

    Time to reload later today.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sure.

    Hey, did you notice that SLV isn't down very much?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    closed FCX long calls – not liking it – holding MOS long calls

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    jan 19 2010?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    holding 10 DMA so far? $18.09 on /SIK0

  • shortcover

    agreed…needs to close at lows or else it's just a blip…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    is this going to be another bear trap? hope not!

  • Gold_Gerb

    Dude.
    Use reverse psyche or sell half.

    ..and yes – Thank You!!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I bought calls. Let's find out.

  • gmak

    Dear Mole:

    You want a public apology. Here it is. I'm sorry you think that somehow I was besmirching EWT. That was not my intent. I'm sorry that you then extrapolating that to take it as a personal affront. Most of all, I'm sorry that you are so insecure about everything.

    Good luck with your blog.

  • ricebowl

    I hedged my SPY calls and turned my position into a straddle.

  • rosocecasita

    No, they are very valuable for long term entries. (Its true that my range of entry is probably wider.)

    110 SPY Jun 2010,

    Ya, its a big question I keep wondering about. Even if we have, will there be more to this then just today.

    (I'm willing to eat some more theta, as I have to to catch moves.)

    Other entry: 8 Jan 2011 UNG calls

  • ricebowl

    Are you leaving the blog? Would hate to see you go; it would be a huge loss.

  • Tronacate

    gmak…..don't leave bubba

  • octospider

    is anyone else watching the potential $VIX buy signal that is forming??
    (a close outside the 2.0BB)

  • ricebowl

    Yep. Doesn't jive with what I expect to happen, but we'll see.

  • rosocecasita

    Just as we had a failed Sell, we can have a Failed Buy.

    Nothing says that the VIX can't stay on the outside/upside of the BB for a few days.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    More trouble at t' mill? Sigh. Gmak – love your work, mate. Would be a shame to see ya go.

    Anyhoo, back to business. Remember the line I highlighted the other day as the one that had to go before a decent sell-off? Well guess what we are testing the underside of right now…

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

  • rosocecasita

    I really enjoy your morning posts, btw =)

    Where are you headed?

  • Tronacate

    Levin is ripping them a new asshole

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    WHAT TF happened?????????????

  • ricebowl

    If ^VIX does stay outside for several days, doesn't the last count at step #1 for a ^VIX buy? I mean, isn't the only way for ^VIX to not generate a buy signal for the BBs to open up and for it to continue rallying?

    I'm not very clear on the ^VIX signal; the little I do know I learned from Mole.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    the question is how far

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Channels stand very well on their own independently of EWT. They can be very effective used with it.

  • rosocecasita

    Same:

    1. Close outside.
    2. Close back inside.
    3. Close Further inside then 2.

    if step 3 doesn't happen its a failed signal.

  • Tronacate

    Chew their arms off Levin

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    gmak wasn't dissing EWT Mole. He was just saying that channels have a lot of value on their own, and they do.

  • skynard

    W5 developing now and from there I'll go long, Unless of coarse we break 1183. Maybe a test?

  • fisheggs
  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes. It's statistically probable, isn't it? Bears should at least admit that.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    gmak – it's pretty simple. This blog started as a place for EWT aficionados and anyone interested in learning about it. I myself have tried my best to push EWT beyond what the current 'religious leaders' are pushing. Here you come along and make statements like 'forget EWT' – some might interpret it one way, others who are new here may think that there is a disconnect between the two people posting on this blog.

    Quite frankly – your comment is not a an apology – it's a middle finger. AND you are running off like an insulted little girl. Talking about insecurity!! LOL 🙂

    Hey, your choice – seems like many folks here appreciate your contributions. I never told you to leave – all I wanted was some clarification WITHOUT ATTITUDE. Whatever you want to read into all this is on you, mate.

    Good luck.

  • ricebowl

    LOL — now I'm unintentionally making money by being long volatility. I logged into my account and was shocked to see that I'd made another 1%.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure what's going on – all I asked for was some clarification. But he's being pretty emotional/aggressive on top of it – so maybe it's better this way.

  • bobthehorse

    You're being massively over-sensitive. Losing Gmak would be a shocker for your blog. I've only been here for 6 months or so but I can't believe how many people sprain their vagina over trivial things. Let's focus on markets.

  • amokta

    GMAK, without you the clock will no longer be broken!
    Mole, as blog commander, it is your responsibility to rescue the situation (should you choose to accept this mission)!

  • marcopolo101520

    BTH,

    I appreciate your comments and I guess I am not alone. Today 1187 (LOD so far)sits right on top of the 1185 that you mentioned and I agree, that is pretty strong support. Going down I see more support at 1120 and then the low of the year low 1060s. Only after that is taken I see a move poassible to 925. My expectation for today was 1195 (EOD) and from here an up move with a stall and a bump over 1220 and then higher. We should have had a top already (mased on the methods that I follow, sq9) but nothing is perfect, chanels, EWT, etc. It's really tough and one needs courage in this market. Again, I appreciate your comments, also for the courage that you had to stick with your plan so far. Or have you cheated here and there (I mean small scalping)?

    Mp101520

  • ricebowl

    He's one of most level-headed, polite traders on this blog. This is very unusual for him. I wouldn't write him off so quickly. He's probably just got some other things going on that are gnawing at him. Besides that, he's added a lot to this blog, and not just with his morning updates.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole is giving him a chance:

    “Hey, your choice – seems like many folks here appreciate your contributions. I never told you to leave – all I wanted was some clarification WITHOUT ATTITUDE. Whatever you want to read into all this is on you, mate.”

    That seems fair and straightforward.

    We'll see if Gmak comes around.

  • viscous

    Maybe this will help you guys.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo9AH4vG2wA

  • Tronacate

    Damn……is everybody on their PERIOD today??? Shit……this is ridiculous……

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole cooled off. Now it's Gmak's turn.

    Time for me to shut up and get back to work.

  • Onorio

    Man, we`re down 30 handles, emotions are at extreme levels…give it a break!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously: “This is the real thing, bitches. No, it's a bear trap. No, it's not a fucking bear trap.”

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    LOL

    That has to be one of the strangest soundtracks to this market you could imagine..

  • raised_by_wolves

    I count 20 😉

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    SPX LOD was smack on the trendline from March 09.

    Just sayin'..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nah..must be that FULL MOON rising!

  • ricebowl

    So how do you interpret the tea leaves? You think we rally from here?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Would you believe this is the YouTube video response to that one? 😉

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofbrv20YGZg

  • marcopolo101520

    Last week, MyLifeMyTrade was looking emotional, come on mole, these are tough times, but only as a pack we can get through. When MLMT was boiling over, we all (except myself who did not post anything) were there, now gmak says something and then is escalated to this level. There is no need for this, stay FOCUSED. We are ALL the monster with xxx pairs of eyes and xxx pairs of ears spitting fire left and right and fuming for what, about 19 months at this market, come on guys make peace and stop shooting at each other, PLEASE SHAKE HANDS AND let's all go fishing some squid, it's delicious…

  • Onorio

    I was counting from the high :]

  • amokta

    if we break 1190, i am going to declare P3 open season!

  • ricebowl

    1044 makes it P3; 1190 makes it an A-B-C at worst.

  • Onorio

    LOD on AUDUSD, CPI this night.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    who the hell knows?

    if we take the drop this arvo as clearly some kind of small-scale w3, then the wedge that followed was w4 and we should have new LOD before close of play for w5.

    then presumably rally fiercely into the close..

    short but watching it very closely

  • Onorio

    By the way the TL from 0.86 is broken and has been re-tested before the new low.

    Perfect TA.

  • bobthehorse

    Always scalping but the core position has remained constant. As I have mentioned, its been a lot easier to be short Europe than the US.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yarp. FTSE was sliding a few days before the DAX or US.. drop on it does not look impulsive though – very zig-zaggy overlapping..

  • skynard

    IMO, they are going to test 1184. Today or tomorrow.

  • ricebowl

    Almost got sucked into a long position. Whoa.

  • rosocecasita

    Gold & SPY: Will the Negative Correlation go Full blown?

    http://goo.gl/TdWN

    Thats a BIG change from past movements! Go Gold Go!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • marcopolo101520

    Evil to the core! That's the spirit people!

  • amokta

    we can drop to 1044 in a day. equally we could go back above 1200
    so what does EW anaylsis (if it is of value) tell us – i think EWI STU always gives 2 views – one that we have yet to complete a wave up 'v', but then is this part 'a' of a bigger a-b-c which is the final leg of the triple zig-zag from march lows (to complete P1). Ther other view is that we turn down immediatley etc.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am not emotional at all actually. Guys – I can't help it if gmak is acting like a diva. I think my request was appropriate and he could have handled it like this:

    gmak: Sorry mole – didn't mean to discredit EWT. This is what I meant: [explanation].

    mole: No sweat buddy – that's what I thought.

    Instead I got an obviously irate response which culminated in him running off. Whatever – not a good example of a 'stone cold trader'. That's his choice, let's not make a big deal out of it. Evil Speculator will survive – as it has after Berk, Anna, Fujisan, etc.

    As I said before – people will come and people will go. The one constant here (besides my own emotional roller coaster in the past few months) is yours truly. I will stick around – even when the going gets tough.

  • marcopolo101520

    TODAY IS FEBRUARY 14!

    Show your love for the team, people, GMAK and MOLE! AND the Hamster! let's make some PEACE and show some love for the team!

    in my math, take 1mole (i'm chemist by the way!!!) and one gmak and get more than 2 of each! Agree?

  • marcopolo101520

    For $520 Million, AstraZeneca Settles Case Over Marketing of a Drug…..GS should do better than that or…worse? 2-3billion sounds fair?

  • captainboom

    Agree.

  • marcopolo101520

    we break through this trendline, I am going long-ish

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Listen amokta: I don't think I was being unreasonable. The statement he meant was below the belt line – especially since he was invited to post on a blog that does employ EWT to a certain extent. This could have been quickly resolved amicably but he instead started to snarl and act insulted. Not sure why he's being this way but it's really not on me – it's his choice to walk.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you – I was not trying to be an ass. But if you make a statement that could be interpreted as EWT bashing on an EWT blog then I believe I deserve to bring it up. Again, many people come here and just read – they don't discuss things like the contributors. They might have gotten the idea that ES has completely abandoned EWT. It's always a matter of perspective, and I want to have clarity and a concise message on my blog.

  • marcopolo101520

    PMetals:

    Is something wrong if the info that I get? Only Gold is up today, Ag, Pt and Pd are all down…Pt and Pd used to be the leaders, Pd very close to the highest ever level…

    PLMK and thanks

  • marcopolo101520

    tough battle here, 1185 or 1195…deciding in 45min…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    bob – I am not being sensitive. I want to project clarity on my blog. Again, all I asked for was an explanation of why he made that statement. I don't think he handled that all that well. He could have just said: 'Sorry mole – not what I meant – I correct it right away'. That's what I would have done. Instead I got a pretty weird comment and he's obviously insulted.

    Guys – I can't control other people's emotions. But I expected him to be a bit more rational about this.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Marcopolo – there's a new thread 😉

  • marcopolo101520

    1194…hm fingering vanguard account…

  • marcopolo101520

    who the he;l;ll;l;l is griding it higher? Head count! 3:30pm is the time when things are open for bidding, please wait!

  • skynard

    1190 support was lost, today the close will be sold off IMO.

  • yudhisthira

    Bookie that tax payers potentially have to pay off because too big to flail?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bears are pussies – afraid to hold their shorts at the critical moment

  • bobthehorse

    Just bought a scrap more – hoping for a small squeeze into the close. Am looking to come in tomorrow and find a decent level to sell it – would not be surprised to see estoxx back around 2800 tomorrow morning.

  • marcopolo101520

    Bravo!
    What's your take for wednesday? I listen!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    from TTW to ES in the difficult time
    http://screencast.com/t/MjQzNmNiMm
    bears…pussies…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I agree boss, you were taking this on a very light note and asked for a reasonable answer.

  • ricebowl

    lol

    The previous low at 1189 broke, and IMO that means we head down, but not before a dead cat bounce. Did you close your shorts, or are you still short?