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How I Got Paid To Travel

by The MoleMay 23, 2017

Please forgive the blatant clickbait but I’ll have to stir up participation a little after my pre-summer mini excursion into Austria and Italy. Plus it’s not 2010 anymore when we were content to just bitch about the Fed and excessive quantitive easing. These days I have to compete with daily Trump bashings, terrorist attacks, social media scandals, and whoever’s turn it is today to be labeled a gay-commie-nazi-bigot-racist-marxist-global-warming-denier. Did I leave anything out?

Anyway, my bold claims aren’t much of a stretch as almost all of my open campaigns continued to print money during my time off. Which greatly helped ease the daily horror of watching the EUR/USD climb higher relentlessly without an apparent end in sight. Aren’t there laws against that for crying out loud?

2017-05-23_EURUSD

Oh well, if you recall I pretty much expected this much and had hedged myself accordingly. Shown above are the weekly and monthly panels which suggest that there’s probably more upside in the making. First up the weekly Bollinger is squeezed to the max, secondly it’s trading above the 100-week SMA the first time since – what – years? Third there’s a breach of several monthly NLBLs in the making and if 1.125 gives then I’ll see you at 1.15. In other words I may just double all subscriptions so you may want to lock in a good rate right now 

What, you thought the Mole softened up a little after a few days of vacation? You would have been right on Friday morning but then I made the mistake of pointing my car South straight into Italy in order to meet up with Scott. Big mistake. In the interest of being politically incorrect let me just say this: Do not ever drive a car in Italy. Go by bus or by train and make sure you’re wearing a helmet. I’ll just leave it at that.

Now if you don’t drive in Italy then it’s a lovely country full of amazing food, beautiful stylish people, and I would love to say gorgeous landscapes but coming from Austria my perspective may have been skewed. Sorry Italy – in my not so humble opinion Austria wins this one, but you definitely smash the Alpine yodels in the gorgeous women department and that counts for something. And I have never ever seen better dressed men with better haircuts, so you ladies are in for a treat. Compared with those guys Scott and I looked like homeless people.

mole_kicking_scott

Anyway we both had an awesome time getting fat in Tuscany and for dessert Scott even let me kick him in the head a little. Suffice to say he didn’t feel a thing as he’s built like Drax The Destroyer. I’m not kidding.

2017-05-23_spoos

As you can imagine I’m just coming up to speed on the trading end. Looking at the E-mini I couldn’t help but chuckle as the post-Mole-vacation snap-back is almost a perfect mirror of the preceding sell off. Some of you guys were choking about short positions as I was boarding my plane last Monday. Well, I hope you cashed in those chips as we’re almost back to where I left things a week ago. That was a massive shake out and everyone got some.

From here it seems like a small correction would be in order followed by a final run toward new all time highs. I don’t feel compelled to get involved here right now but will keep a close eye on this. Remember it doesn’t matter where it comes from – all that matters is where it’s heading.

Campaign Updates

2017-05-23_gold_update

Gold netted me 2R as I advanced my trailing stop to a major spike low below 1253 late last week. I actually think we may be able to double dip here once gold is done shaking off weak hands. Stay tuned!

2017-05-23_copper_update

Copper continues to take its merry time but patience has finally paid off. I’m advancing my trailing stop to below 2.554. By the way if you glance at the daily panel – I think this one is good until 2.65 where the 100-day SMA looms. I’ll definitely start narrowing my trail there. But if it breaks higher then we may actually got a runner at our hands. Again I will keep you guys posted here as this is one interesting daily chart with long term potential.

2017-05-23_ZB_update

Bonds – kaah-chiiiinggg!! Moving my stop now to below 153.10. Did any of you guys follow me into this one? By the way once again look at the daily chart. What do you see there? Squeezed Bollinger and a retest of the 100-day SMA. Could get juicy here!

2017-05-23_ZM_update

Alright – let’s wrap it up with the one dud. Soybean Meal crashed and burned ignominiously and you may recall that I saw it coming as there simply wasn’t any mojo. However lacking any pertinent exit rule I had to keep it running. And if you look at copper then you know WHY I don’t have such a rule: because there appears to be no edge in timing a campaign, at least on the hourly and daily panels. Feel free to run the numbers and prove me wrong of course 😉

Good to be back!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Soybeans… ag commodities in general don’t look great for bullish folks…
    Welcome back Mole….
    Comex metals opex Thursday…Fed up for next 2 days….be nimble..

  • Darrell Osgood

    Thanks to Mole, I am approaching stainless steel ratdom. I used to get very worried about flash drops like we saw last week. This time, I raised only one eyebrow and stayed the course. Thank you, Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey mate – didn’t you travel as well?

  • OJuice

    USD been beat down pretty well over the past couple weeks. If it can find any strength around the FED meeting it might put some pressure on commodities as well.

  • ridingwaves

    Peru-Roatan, first pic Roatan dive resort-divers heaven
    second, Inca king carved in mountain, my guess is 200+ serfs perished chiseling that dude in the mountain
    https://s8.postimg.org/dnujjx72t/DSC_0555.jpg
    https://s12.postimg.org/c8u9d4865/DSC_0427.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    fed might talk rate hike next month, hitting gold, 1240 looks like it would be tough to crack on down move possibly 1236 per Mole chart above

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well played good sir!

  • BTrader

    1239 would be a perfect retest of the last breakout.

  • OJuice
  • ridingwaves

    dang, that looks one sided…

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX

    Scott looks like he should be in one of those “European Tough Man” competitions. Pulling trains, etc. Nice kick btw.

  • OJuice

    Decent opportunity to hedge equities here. Unlike recently, /NQ isn’t leading to the upside. I’m buying a small amount of SPY 2280s and I’ll cover if we make new highs.

    Also if /CL can get an hourly sell signal I’ll jump in on the short side. Old trusty P&F has resistance at ~52 and a target of ~41. For $WTIC.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually he probably could.

  • ridingwaves

    instead of be nimble I should have used tighten up your stop!

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve done strongman comps. Pulling trucks, lifting cars, etc. I’m cuddly, but a seriously strong motherfucker.

  • Scott Phillips

    Amazing photo!

  • BTrader

    Are you strong enough to pull the $NQ down?

  • Scott Phillips

    As most of you know I’ve been posting on Quora. A hedge fund guy was travelling through the dirty Kok and looked me up. Anyway, we ended up getting on like a house on fire, and he moved into my place and we did a mind meld for a few days.

    He ended up sharing the risk management system from the top hedge fund in Japan, which Mole promptly programmed and is now in production.

    I highly recommend anything he has to say on Quora. Like this
    https://www.quora.com/Why-are-most-traders-so-bad-at-risk-management/answer/Laurent-Bernut

  • Scott Phillips

    Hulk is scared of NQ

  • ridingwaves

    Tourists bet the farm. Pro’s milk the cows…..
    love it….added it to the 10 protocols…

  • Scott Phillips

    Guys, for future reference.

    Any touch of a rising LOWER bollinger is a VERY strong edge. It doesn’t happen very often, but when it does, it’s money.

  • Scott Phillips

    He is a 100% systematic short seller with a very interesting method.

    He measures each chart against custom sector indexes. Finds the weakest stocks in each sector. Shorts the dogs.

  • Mary

    I take it the edge is to the long side, correct Scott?

  • Mary

    Also the time frame – daily only?

  • BTrader

    Thanks for the article!

  • ridingwaves

    I’m sure he banks cash in bio sector….full of dogs pushed up by hedgies or PE-broker cashing out along the way to create shooting stars, spinning tops..

  • Scott Phillips

    Yes to the long side. To be specific. In the direction of the prevailing trend any touch of the opposite bollinger is an edge in the with-trend direction.

    It really really doesn’t happen very often, but eyeball a few charts and see, it runs around 75%

  • Scott Phillips

    He also runs a short squeeze system where the short interest is too high, the chart looks bearish, and he dumps a big pile of cash (a million or more) into a bearish looking chart with high short interest to trigger a surprise squeeze. Sneaky as fuck!

  • Scott Phillips

    I don’t often endorse other traders. Mole, Al Brooks, Linda Raschke, Gabriel Grammatidis, Ken Long, a few others. Thats about it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh yeah – have been milking that one for years 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s what I do, it was fun figuring it out.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apparently I’m still in mental vacation mode. Tomorrow I’ll be back in quant python immersion mode. Any python coders here?

  • Scott Phillips

    Oh scalpius just posted a sweet winner on ZN – CCM switched it on. Check your logs.

  • Scott Phillips

    any – but the lower the timeframe the wider you need to make the bollingers. All timeframes aren’t created equal and lower timeframes have huge differences in candle size

  • ridingwaves

    I can visualize how that would work in low float high short ratio… an instant cover run…..lots of hair being pulled out while mouthing mommmmmy

  • Mulv

    Getting there…

  • OJuice

    Thank you.

  • Mary

    Thank you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    No.
    but rumor is, it’s easier than German.
    😉

    http://tdc-www.harvard.edu/Python.pdf

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dust off your old anaglyph spectacles and take a look. Snapped this one cha-cha style last week in Austria.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7be0f452b24e49ee5d82a2cb8fa7fafa5aaaf868e624fb5f1eeecf8aaa51ab4.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe :-) You don’t know German until you’ve learned to speak with a Corinthian accent (Southern Austria). Very much enjoyed it after almost 30 years away.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which one – 6J.20?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well actually it depends on the volatility phase more than the interval. In super high volatility you get overshoot so you want enough but not too much. You also want to have a pretty established trend with everything pointing up. And even then you get probably at max a 60% win rate. BUT the reversals are strong and directional which is why they are fun to trade.

  • Scott Phillips

    No ZN 60

  • Scott Phillips

    Yeah, he told me and I had bad feelings. It’s kinda axiomatic that surprise outcomes cause big moves.

    I can imagine Tim Knight being short some small cap pig, thinking he was totally safe, the chart unequivocally bearish and BAM! Punched right in the face

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Wow. What is his expectancy on these type of trades? Is there any campaign management other than pour gas and dynamite, throw the match from afar and see if it blows up?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    What sectors does he target? What if the whole sector wakes up? Or is he doing pair trades within the sector?

  • evilasevildoes

    nyone followinig BITC or ETH?

  • Scott Phillips

    Yes the campaign management is quite brilliant. It’s his secret sauce so I won’t share it publicly.

  • Scott Phillips

    No he’s throwing the weakest ones on a list, and then looking for a mechanical price action based setup, essentially lower highs and lower lows.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks. Quotes that stand out to me on a first read:

    “Risk is a number: this is how much You can afford to lose and still be in the game. ”

    “The right question is : can my system identify any deterioration in any individual risk and help me reduce exposures so that my overall risk remains manageable?”

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Following but not trading.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III