Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Hump Day Updates
77

Hump Day Updates

by The MoleJuly 19, 2017

We are floating in the midst of the summer doldrums and I don’t really see anything salient I haven’t covered over the recent past. The greenback continues to get hammered and as our collective purchasing power is sinking steadily it implicitly lifts the relative value of Dollar denominated assets since holding cash exposes you to the receiving end of Yellen’s fiat currency death stick.

Event Risk

2017-07-19_events

We are facing a bit of event risk today as well as tomorrow which could produce some violent swings especially in combination with low mid-summer market volume. Around 10:30am this morning we’ll be getting the weekly EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report which will affect the Dollar as crude markets (still) primarily trade via the old greenback.

2017-07-20_events

Tomorrow of course is the big one, the ECB’s interest decision which is a subject I covered in last Monday’s post. Actually I wasn’t aware that there will be an interest rate announcement this month as the ECB meeting was not supposed to issue any ESPs. Either way I’d suggest caution early tomorrow morning as I’m sure the EUR will be on the move, one way or the other.

Campaign Updates

2017-07-19_spoos_update

I got my spike low on the ES yesterday and entered as planned as soon as a spike low was in place. ISL of course was placed a few ticks below the SL but it’s already time now to advance it to break/even as we’re near the 1R mark. I’m being a bit more cautious with this one for obvious reasons, which is that intra-day volatility remains elevated across the board but especially across equities.

2017-07-19_wheat_update

Wheat is still in the game but has produced a new spike low slightly above our ISL. Not looking too hot here and we unfortunately may see another leg down.

2017-07-19_corn_update

Corn continues to flail in all directions and managed to scrape my trail at +0.7R. I’m pretty sure it’ll run straight up from here (Murphy’s Law) but if it behaves and forms a more defined floor pattern then I may be willing to jump back in. Truth be told – had I not been long here previously I would probably take the current formation, but I don’t want to push my luck given the ECB announcement tomorrow. With Draghi you just never know…

2017-07-19_soybeans_update

Soybeans looking the same and there’s really nothing to be done until it either gets stopped out or finally takes off. It’s easy to get drawn into mucking with your setups and what’s even worse is if you actually get away with it, which in turn leads you to negative future behavior. Alea iacta est and let’s stick to the rules.

2017-07-19_bonds_update

Bonds are looking good and my stop on the ZB is now advancing to break/even. If it pushes higher and forms a spike low or exceeds 1R then I’ll be sure to advance my trail.

2017-07-19_cable_update

Cable is somewhat retracing after a quick surprise spike higher (intermittent volatility everywhere as you can see) and I decided to advance my trail to about +1R just below a recent spike low.

I’ve got some coding/studying duties to attend to over the coming hours but will be around and comment on the price action should we get any. I really have enjoyed the productive discourse in the comment section recently which makes me especially proud as we’re heading toward nine glorious years for Evil Speculator. Our next anniversary is only two weeks away and as every year I’m open to bribes, presents, memberships, gift baskets, and of course obsequious undeserved compliments

Let’s hope we make it to a full decade and then beyond!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Thanks Mole for update, VXO is lowest its been in 20 years….
    strongest bull market I have ever seen right now….No fear…

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Everything is awesome!

    So awesome, in fact, that I’m going to the woods for a couple of days. I expect next week to offer more opportunities in equities, or at least the indices.

  • Yoda

    Adding to existing lottery long GDXJ position on this a.m. weakness.
    stop @ 32
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f0665e84fb5ab47ed41f6f629488531a4afe451c765042f52a21b1b5bbb1d8b.png

  • OJuice

    /CL looking pretty weak through last night and this morning considering. Now a reversal on the EIA. I’ll be keeping a close eye on it tomorrow and Friday to see if a short opportunity materializes.

  • Julie

    Taking profits GLD
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Ripping and a tearing. FED gonna be real disappointed that their warnings of frothiness in various assets have been completely ignored.

  • Tomcat

    For me it already has.

  • ridingwaves

    watch out for those pesky Ticks….I hate those little evil bastards…
    Oil jumped that congestion just now on that API drain news….could be turning bullish….heading for your area now…

  • OJuice

    Nice. I’m going to wait just a bit longer, as I have all the hourly averages still gently sloping up and an outside potential of $48ish. If it rolls over I’ll be all over it though.

  • Julie

    Gold Gerb Weekly chart UUP Confluence of weekly 233 ema : support zone : lower trend line of a parallel channel. Also a bullish falling wedge is forming. Notice importance of 233 ema
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1c76bea402589358da751b3ab373203811cdd14b345daee38673f160609060b.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I am GG, and I approve this message.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BEPbXYzE5_Y/hqdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whatever you do, don’t push the Button.

    Could/Should be support soon at 24.40.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1c7fa87a5b434c3aa99c5490618cad4eb875e8f624f21b7dd5aaebb46466d41.png
    -GG

  • Julie

    An interesting chart showing momentum is strong Heiken Ashi candles. This ETF can be traded and I have done well with it https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09392f5b5813d199442ad8a2c6d9a1093add4ca5a2b565de84e61977d4efc5a2.jpg
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the weekly might try to find 92, Draghi will be the trigger no matter direction tomorrow
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf02f93c1616097f33855454b3a10951e9c407f36f4be379852f6b724ea729c6.png

  • Julie

    I know several people with Lyme disease … Horrible affliction…. Luckily in MT and Western OR not common but still present
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    I see where you get your $48. Needless to say, that’s where I add to my short.

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve done some hike in Oregon Alps, Hood River area and found the little buggers on skin checks. Surprised to hear that their is no lyme disease when it’s right here in the bay area…

  • Ronebadger

    Been bit before, got antibiotics within 2 days, then the test showed Lyme..never a problem…thanks God!

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Ticks are common here, and the related diseases seem to be increasing nationwide. If anyone has ever built up a resistance to them, I certainly have. I’m hoping that a big tick sucks the life out of $BKX while I’m away.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll try to make #4000 extra evil. Plus our 9 year anniversary is coming up in two weeks – how time flies!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9eae40285fd3e2c3a82ab7c6afb5c0e3b9da56b26d7d4e5cafb159639c318b97.png

  • Julie

    OzarkHillBilly BAC an excellent proxy for $BKX must get above 24.30 …. I too want them Ozark ticks to suck the life out of the banks. BTW The Ozarks are beautiful
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie

    CAT yesterday broke below and closed below two important supports. I shorted EOD and today back above as I type it’s daily 5 ema. Will see how today’s close is.and volume If wrong not wrong long
    JULIE

  • Ag Coyote

    Look into studies around the effectiveness of nanoparticle colloidal Silver.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are a busy busy bee.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    I’ll drink to that!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some unusual volatility down spiking compared to the net change in indexes..

  • Tomcat

    Those $CSCO options I detailed a while back are coming good.

  • Ag Coyote

    What you are seeing is the early stages of hyperinflation. Every effort has been made to hide the absolute value of the USD. DX UUP etc are all relative.

  • ridingwaves

    OT-Breaking News: Saudi Arabia arrests skirted woman seen in viral video

    what a fricking oppressive state/country that is….Electrical vs gas engines can’t come fast enough. I look forward to that regime heading back to broke…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was skeptical at first, but….you may be right.

    (2009 article)
    https://www.fgmr.com/early-stages-leading-to-hyperinflation/

    MONEY VELOCITY – Slowing? Check.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

    (Zimbabwe b!tchez)

  • Julie

    BAC A close below 23.92 will be below the 21 baseline of the ichimoku cloud which is bearish.Observe the confluence of the daily 89 ema ; lower channel trend line and the upper boundary of the cloud. Also the cloud thickness determines strength of resistance or support.The cloud thickness is thin If BAC breaks and closes below the above mentioned parameters and the cloud that would be esp. bearish. Now if BAC reverses and closes above the 8 baseline 24.30 that would be bullish
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/791b18b960648f0655ef21e4f4ceb4552ab3928b95c306ece3403b304d577bde.jpg

  • Tomcat

    You dont need electrical engines for them to go broke as we already have minimized importing their oil. Their dinosaur thinking and commodity is becoming irrelevant each day. They are trying to stay relevant by strong arming OPEC but its obvious how that is going. The world has caught on to their BS.

  • Yoda

    It’s good to have the Zero on days like today. If I were a scalper, I would bet now for a turbulent end of session.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    23.93 will hold. it’s a test.
    your parallel channel is no match for the Dark Side.

    Heck, it was the ceiling all the way back in April.

  • Julie

    24.00 is indeed a strong zone i.e. line in the sand … That was my posted target on a previous short … I covered at 24
    JULIE

  • Ag Coyote

    The two charts that matter most are the M2 money velocity and the Labor Force Participation Rate. There has been no recovery whatsoever since 2008, just a massive liquidity pump designed to buy time. They can’t operate on the vertical portion of a debt curve. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd66bfe20e4dbf3f6e1aa474c0a4a304e9c639bbf400c53d86c477424e750edc.jpg

  • Ag Coyote

    The evidence was subjected to intensive scrutiny.

  • Julie

    I second that
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    actually M3 is more important but the fed stopped reporting it conveniently in 06
    The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

    M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

    But that is all small potatoes, M3 includes all of M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada.”

    In other words, M3 tracks what the big boys are doing with the money. This includes US dollars held in banks in Canada and the UK (called Eurodollars) not to be confused with the Euro which is the standard currency of Europe.

  • Julie

    Riding Waves Great point on the M3
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    every shale field well is producing less after 3 years and out in 8….it won’t last long plus the water quality damage is irreparable……but with an Exxon CEO as our SOS
    I would expect to overproduce and run the well all the way to dry…

  • Julie

    Mole and Everyone AG Coyote and myself have found a new home Thanks Mole and Everyone ! You guys are great. Not even one vugar word or insult. Everything constructive and productive. Again Thank You !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s how we roll here.

  • almez

    Interesting price action in VXX. Looks like vol may be more correlated with the size of market moves, rather than inversely correlated with equity prices. Nobody buying puts these days.

  • ridingwaves

    2475 was something I was looking at a couple months ago as reflection area, it will find it tomorrow but I might start looking at this vix L trade now….being opex week I’m going to wait until Friday to maybe enter small lot…

  • ridingwaves

    OT-News-More Americans are renters now than at any time in the last 50 years
    All due to the greatest heist of real estate and wealth in the history of Mankind..

  • Yoda

    glad that I am not one 😉

  • TerpFan

    Zero Updating?

    So, it seems, for the last 3 days, that the Zero will only update if I hit Shift/Refresh. Doesn’t matter what PC or Browser. Anyone else having this problem?

  • Julie

    Retaining CAT short. Up volume today very poor. 108.89 stop will cover
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have received one more complaint via email after the server change. Was that you by any chance? It seems clearing the cache of the browser or using another browser was the solution. Sorry guys – I’m actually surprised not more broke after the hosting firm switched over servers (ducks).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TerpFan

    Mole, That was probably me. I emailed you yesterday at the “admin” address.
    Clearing the cache didn’t work for me.

  • Julie

    Mole I have been reading about your zero line and other indicators. I like it Very interesting. Nice to see that there is an hourly frame Is this program available for individual stocks too ? Thanks Mole
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • ridingwaves

    more OT- Solar eclipse coming in a month….where will you be? We had 4 couples going to Bend but just cancelled our VRBO rental today…They are now expecting 1 million people in Bend-Madras, might not be gas, food or ability to get out in a hurry, expecting 12 hour traffic jams….today was our last day to cancel a nice 5 bdrm home on the river….I’m not good in traffic….

    https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/interactive_map/index.html

  • Ag Coyote

    Agree. Confining my feisty posts to Twitter lately. Sven Hendrich blocked me. aaahahahaaa — It is a pleasure to be able to have a civil discussion here.

  • Ag Coyote

    John McCain diagnosed with brain cancer. Unfortunate for anyone but I want to see JM get out of office.

  • Ag Coyote

    Who doesn’t like Snidely Whiplash. lolol

  • Ag Coyote
  • Ag Coyote
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m planning to be on a road trip with the wife, trying to find an appropriate spot to watch from. Since hotels and campgrounds have been booked for a year, we’ll be roughing it by sleeping in the back of the van wherever we can find a good spot to stop.

    I’m going to try to be in an area where the weather should be good, probably Wyoming or western Nebraska. These folks did some research on typical cloud cover, so aiming to be in a good spot based on the stats.

    http://eclipsophile.com/americas-eclipse/

  • ridingwaves

    I think your going to have to be anywhere 300 miles from major cities as Denver residents will head up to Wyoming, Boise-Snake River area, Seattle-Portland-Madras-Bend….The property manager in Bend said State emergency officials are expecting the worst and are becoming very worried about emergency management capabilities. Mentioned the 40 mile drive north in the morning will take up to 8-9 hours….

    I like the Wind River range area and Idaho Falls region. Possibly by Baker City, OR also…Good luck….I may opt for a trip to Puerto Vallarta instead..

  • Julie

    Hi Riding Waves 1st Great trade ARCX 2nd Agree the Bend Madras area is expected to be a mad house. I remember the last total solar eclipse we were in Bozeman MT Feruary 1979. Bozeman was an epicenter for the eclipse. Indians from all across the country gathered in Bozeman for the event. Birds started to roost. where they go at night. Other nocyurnal animals appeared. It was enjoyable watching the wildlife as much as the actual eclipse.Drive careful if visiting Oregon and have fun !
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yep, I’m going to aim at as desolate as I can find, and do some stealth camping in the van for a night or two ahead of time to beat any traffic. Idaho Falls area is one I was considering, another is in the Wind River stretch between Riverton and Casper, WY.

  • Julie

    Lander WY would be nice too !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    It would be neat to go into the Hole In The Wall Near Kaycee Wy The hangout for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Unreal country
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks for the tip. I’ll be looking for things to do and places to see in the lead up to the eclipse, so perhaps that will fit.

  • Julie

    Take water and have a full tank of gas. The road leading in has areas of private property but plenty of BLM land. Unreal area you can see why the outlaws were there
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    CYTR seeming more coiled, and a bit setup beyond around .63 ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes, unfortunate. I lost a family member in 2010, 40 years is too young.
    No mother should see their child die.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Captain is AWOL?
    maybe he’s working on an extra EVIL post.
    Hmmm.

  • Julie

    GG I signed up for the premarket commentary and did not receive one this a.m. I hope everything is OK with the Chief
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just now posted.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Working on something but it’ll take time.