I Am Not Amused
I should be elated as apparently the Dollar decided that it doesn’t want to go Weimar after all and is even evincing early signs of a bonafide break out pattern on the long term panels. But unfortunately I’m taking a bit of a pounding this morning for the same reason as pretty much everything except equities has been hammered.
Now before you read on make sure to catch up on my Sunday update featuring this week’s top and bottom performing stock symbols, historically speaking of course as my crystal ball is still in the shop. Incidentally last week’s picks did very well again adding another 7.57% to the win side. Even Scott is getting interested and he for one hates trading stocks! Alright, let’s review where we are:
I don’t know if you prefer the good news or the bad news first. But traditionally we usually start with equities and that happens to be our only symbol standing this Monday. Impressive however with 3.5R locked in at this point and there’s no telling how far she’ll run before running out of fumes. As you may have guessed I’m currently trailing below the last spike low near ES 2572.
Sugar is still in the running but it’s not looking so hot as it’s dipped below the short term diagonal. If it continues lower below the diagonal on the daily panel then this sideways pennant may actually resolve to the downside. Too early to tell however so let’s not panic 😉
Gold most likely will be a goner by the time you read this. It looked exceedingly promising last Friday but at least it looks like the band-aid is going to be ripped off swiftly.
Silver already stopped out for me as the spread widened a bit on the way down.
Now on the forex side we were running the AUD/USD which also took the express elevator to the stop out dungeon. No regrets here however – looking at that daily formation it’s an entry I would take again every single time. Note however that a drop through 0.78 would change the dynamics here considerably. Which in turn would be great news for the Dollar, and that suits me well. I know I know – whatever helps me sleep at night
EUR/USD gone and goner. Helped a bit earlier this morning when I had to pay for my cracked iPad glass replacement. On this chart 1.165 really is our bullish bearish inflection point. As long as that one holds the Euro bulls are looking at this as a dip buying opportunity.
And here’s the culprit – the old greenback (shown here are the DX futures not the ~DXY) which is actually in the process of forming a pretty sold looking floor pattern. If it can survive a retest of 92.2 (which I have little doubt will come) then we may actually have ourselves an entry opportunity on the futures or one of the dollar related ETFs like UUP or USDU.
That’s the collar I’m wearing this morning due to excessive wound licking. Hey, I’m making it look good at least. Seriously speaking, I’m not seeing many setups I like right now. Crude is tempting but also affected by the Dollar so until I see resolution on that end I’ll be treading cautiously. Fortunately it looks like the E-Mini is on its way to offsetting most of the stop outs.