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I Drink Your Milkshake!
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I Drink Your Milkshake!

by The MoleOctober 24, 2011

Well, what remains now is my message to the bears:

Drainage indeed! The bears had every chance to walk through that wide open door early fall but as suspected they failed and thus the price to pay will be significant.

Quick glance at my SPX BB chart clearly shows that a little reversal here is justified. However, as you can see that 25-day upper BB line is already rising and thus is getting positioned for some year end monkey business.

The really juicy stuff below for the subs:

[amprotect=nonmember]
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Let’s have a peek at our treasure map – we are almost in the clear. A push above 1260 here would be a lot faster than anticipated but heck – who’s complaining? Oh right – those guys over on ZeroEdge – I guess…  😉

If you’re new then take note of the volume distribution/profile – once we push above 1260 you can expect acceleration to the upside, plus we now have a TON of prior highs to act as support.

Now on to the really juicy stuff. The SPX just pushed above its 25-week SMA – very good step forward – and again this (if accomplished) will establish support. I do however expect a bit of whipsaw now – this has been way too easy…

My favorite monthly chart right now – is again the SPX – as it’s pushing above that NLSL it hit back in August. A close above here by next Monday would drastically increase the chances of a run toward 1400.

As a side note – look at Mr. VIX. The longs played this one par excellence by avoiding a bonafide VIX sell signal (by staying inside the 2.0 BB) pushing up (via a little correction) and then dropping again now. Anyone notice that we are now higher on the VIX and higher on the SPX as well? Neat little trick they played here 😉

That BB is now dropping hard and chances are we’ll find ourselves pushing 20 by the EOY.

Some FX setups to finish things up:

AUD/JPY – we are now near a daily NLBL and a push higher and above the upper 25-day SMA would be pretty bullish. Odds are that we’ll reverse and shake out some of the piggies. But once that’s done I’d be happy to take a breach of that upper Bollinger line.

Inverse situation on the USD/CAD – we seem to be confirming that net-lines sell signal we triggered on Friday. I have pointed out the target area on the daily panel – on the hourly you see a cluster of resistance looming above (i.e. 2 NLBLs and the 25-hour SMA) – structure your trades accordingly.
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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Love DDLewis – probably one of the top two actors of his generation, but who the other is, I don’t recall . . .

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Has he been in anything recently?

  • Anonymous

    Nah, but is filming “Lincoln” with Spielberg directing, not Scorsese, so will have to see how it shakes out.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Since we crossed the Gobi desert, wouldn’t it make sense for 1260 to become a powerful base of support?Although we are losing momentum, don’t up moves seem to coast a long time with little momentum, as opposed to down moves which require strong momentum in order to keep going down?

  • volar

    well guess I know what clip i will be watching this weekend…

  • Anonymous

    “some” pullback expected. Define “some” pls?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Screen grab from MarketWatch sidebar: http://bit.ly/vVmaGP – just saying… 😉

  • Wave_Surfer

    I guess whether or not we actually crossed the desert, it depends on how wide you make the desert.

    2011-10-21_spoos.png has a more narrow than normal desert.

    I figure even if it does do some whip saw and cross back across the desert before crossing over for good (this is what it did on the way down), the trip across the desert should go fairly quick and then strong resistance becomes strong support.

    I guess since my long position is a spread that gives me profit if we whipsaw as well as if we go up, I think I will continue to hold it.

    Actually, I did notice that the VIX is higher as well as SPYs price.  I was thinking that gives the bulls more room to let things melt up before giving a sell signal.

  • Wave_Surfer

    But that is just the excuse given for today’s movement – after the fact.
    What about #1, #2, #3 as the most popular in that image?

  • Anonymous

    VIX appears to be in backwardation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was my point mate – not the comment on the bottom. I was referring to the ‘bearish sentiment’ across the board.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    First you’ll respond to all those emails I sent you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Another Lincoln movie? Sheesh – I wish they cover Jefferson – so much more fun 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How would I know? My crystal ball is in the shop. How about you draw some charts and propose some scenarios?

  • Wave_Surfer

    Doh!  Sorry, I seem to have a knack for finding a way to mis-hear you.
    Glad I saw the same thing as you.  Now I just need to improve my listening skills.

  • Drainage

    Drainage indeed!

    Great calls on timing this rally, Mole. You nailed it.

  • Anonymous

    LOL

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OTAZAD4MZMGPRHWPEMAVGJULV4 Q

    This rally makes no sense. And when did you predict a rally?

  • Wave_Surfer

    Although they tend to shy away from short term predictions : “The market WILL go up to this point tomorrow.” the intermediate and long term predictions have been clearly bullish. Maybe it is less clear if you are a leech.
    Although the door was left open for some whipsaw, I will say that for multiple weeks, the message has been clearly bullish.
    And that comes from me.  A person that has a knack for mis-hearing.

    I believe Mole and his two (now 3?) lieutenants have been clear enough even for a hard of hearing person such as myself.

  • Anonymous

    Well after reaching a 61.8% retracement fib from the 1370-1074 drop, I expect either:
    1- a continuation of the major trend down (start of Major Wave 3, today or tomorrow)

    or

    2- a deep retest of the low (1074) and a bounce back towards 1307

     

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, I could not find that clip on YT for the life of me….

  • Anonymous

    I think we are not quite across the desert yet.  I’d like to see this 61.8% fib taken out and 1260 become support.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO – for several weeks now – near the bottom. I take you are not a sub…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, I checked his comment history – obvious troll – banned. Moderators – be on guard – someone left the gate open this morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s right – don’t mess with me today 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, if I had expected that I would pointed it out. But things have moved so quickly here that I’m cautious about the degree of any pullback. Once we hit traction that short squeeze will also become a lot more painful. Remember Volar’s post on platykurtotic and leptokurtotic markets? We could be switching into lepto mode here if we see further continuous upside, statistics be damned.

  • Anonymous

    a yahoo login is always a red flag.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I recommend Fibz as our security admin.
    ;-D

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually think he’d play an excellent Hitler – he does have the intensity. Whenever I see movies portraying Hitler I just see an actor with a mustache. Lewis has that silent intensity that intimidated so many of Hitler’s followers. Anyway, just a thought…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back in the cage with you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anonymous yahoo login I may add.

  • nyse

    HAHA!

  • Anonymous

    NFLX doing the limbo.

  • Anonymous

    But Lewis would make the actual Hitler look tame . . .

  • Anonymous

    The reason I am siding with a deep pullback is that a lot of traders would think that this is it for the Wave 2 bounce from 1074 because we have already reached the 61.8% FIB. Therefore a lot will likely pile up on shorts (like me) expecting the start of major wave 3 down anytime now. 

    I am however thinking that the ABC retracement from 1074 isn’t done yet and that we can still go higher (I would say 1307 or whereabouts). I think that we just completed, or are about to complete, wave A, with wave B to follow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • Anonymous

    If we were on a bull-run from here, surely, we would expect to have some retracement back towards the oct  4th lows (spx 1080). Mind you there wasnt much retracement off the march 09 and august 2010 lows

    Futures down a little, i suppose neither here nor there.

  • Anonymous

    Just to add: the only thing that would change the above view is if we close the month well above the monthly 5 sma (or acceleration line).

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    repeat..:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    We’ve crossed this desert a few times.

    http://i55.tinypic.com/r01qqe.png

  • Wave_Surfer

    After the market bottomed in March 2009, how long did we go without a decent sized retracement?  How many months?  Since then, I vowed to not demand that a melting up bull market have a reasonable and healthy sized retracement before going up more.

    The market doesn’t respond well to my demands and in a fight between me and the stock market, the stock market always wins.

  • Anonymous

    I agree! We know not what is round the corner, all we can hope is to have some sort of trading edge, be it care of MOle, volar, f’less, cs methods, or ones own methods, and to trade on the right timeframe for ones system(s)

  • Anonymous

    something about that middle candle with little overlap!

  • Marcus Troyka

    I decided to double check ichimoku clouds on the SPX. What I found was fascinating. Based on this chart, we should pull back to about 1123. If 1123 doesn’t hold, we go back to 1100. If 1123 does hold, we go to 1300+. The cloud is bearish but the breakthrough is bullish.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72564705523

  • Anonymous

    NFLX and now TI probably having some influence on futures.  Anybody know off-hand if NFLX is in any of the indexes?  NFLX is getting stomped on.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear
  • Anonymous

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyQ2Gn-e8TQ&feature=related
    YES YES!! Keep the security TIGHT and burn every single one of those nasty scurrying vermin!! “And when did you predict a rally?” wow is all I can say.

  • Anonymous

    Amen, amen. Yes.

  • Anonymous

    Ok, tell me what i did wrong (or perhaps my trading was great, and i should treat myself!):
    Tried to short market at approx 10.30 and then again 11.30 (or maybe a bit later)
    My reason for trades – felt we had probably made some form of st top at least (based on eyeballing charts)
    How was i to know markets would keep rising Lukily they were only small trades but still unpleasant
    What do i need to correct?

  • Anonymous

    Steven Berkoff did an excellent job in War and Remembrance (a mini series from many years ago). I used to watch the Berkoff scenes over and over again, talk about intensity.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “My reason for trades – felt we had….”

    Stop ‘feelings things’ and refer to your charts instead. Why do you guys continue to fight the tape? It’s an expensive and counter productive habit.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole – i need this re-inforcing into my head

  • Anonymous

    Yep. I use your buy and sell lines. As soon as I start thinking I lose money! haha. Those are short term trades. I do have some long term trades that are sometimes against the tape. But its pretty small and stops are wide you can drive a truck through.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well – you have been here for a long time. When are you going to learn it? 

    I think at this point you need to ask yourself the question: Are you cut out for trading? Because if you can’t get your discipline under control all the time spent learning trading related techniques and concepts is completely wasted. You may be better off doing something else with your life – learn how to dive or snowboard, or learn Russian and chase after hot Eastern European chicks. Whatever floats your boat.

    Don’t think I’m being harsh here – it would be harsher to lead you along and collect your subscription money if I believe that you are destined to fail in the long term. That’s what much of the industry is doing and I don’t want any part of that. Not saying that is YOU, amokta – but I thought you deserve some tough love for a change. Success is a habit and if you act like a victim then the market will treat you as such. The meek may inherit the earth but they will still get their asses kicked in the markets – LOL

    I think you need to do a bit of soul searching and focus on trading psychology. Whenever you ‘feel something’ it’s your opportunity to take note and then continue doing what you decided to do when you took that trade. And regarding entries: Only take entries based on clear odds defined by your system/approach – whatever that is.

    We (that is Scott, Volar, myself, and many others who have moved on) have covered this here over and over and over for how many years now? I can keep posting the same charts and articles but in the end trading psychology is something you can either master or you cannot. You cannot pretend – it’s like a dog walking into a pack of other dogs.

    There is obviously a learning period to this – I give it about three four years of regular trading. But if you still find yourself getting robbed by your own emotions after that then you may just want to take a look in the mirror and question if this type of activity is part of your destiny on this blue marble.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just for the record – are you a Zero sub? Because today’s session was pretty much the opposite of bearish.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Good point.  I agree.
    Considering we stopped at Fib, it may do a double back before crossing over for good.

  • EvilTrader

    NYMO way too high.

    Think is a a safe short-term short here, even if ( big IF ) we are set to fly away.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole. All valuabe points.
    I think i transition into a ‘gambler’ whenever i get a few good trades under my belt,and this needs fixing!
    Anyway, i have time in the day to watch markets and i have some capital to play with, so its a hobby/intellectual challenge right now, as much as anything else. Will see how it goes over 12 months

    ps. no, not zero sub – maybe i need to fork out for this if i intend to do daytrading in particular

    Anyway, goodnight here from London!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – closing in.

    http://tinypic.com/r/10s4w45/7

    (GG watches, twitch, twitch, twitch)

  • Anonymous

    why are you twitch my dear friend. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t have ZeroFX.
    :-)

  • Anonymous

    It is easy to blow greater than expected earnings. Not just in trading, but also in business.

  • Anonymous

    Amokta – If you have some capitol to play with, think about investing in your trading by trying zero.  I think many here (and I have been guilty of this myself) over trade.  Wait until you have some reliable indicators (zero, macd, RSI etc) set you up.  Don’t trade off of feeling like Mole said.  Every time I do that, I find I have no plan and usually lose.

  • Anonymous

    ooh. btw how was you day? 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mole threw me in the cage.
    but I deserved it.
    not bad overall.

  • Anonymous

    Ok! noted – no ‘rogue’ trading – i will leave that to the Pros at UBS :-)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks – yes, i did that in the past on Precheters ‘200% short’ recomendation!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    until you save up.
    Never follow a 5 minute candle into Hell (seductive they can be, yesss).

  • Anonymous

    I think you can write off Mole’s subscription fee for federal taxes or setup as a corporation and do it there? Some others might have better idea on that call…or call your accountant…

  • Anonymous

    I still have my shorts for usd/zar, I have volleyed a few orders aud/jpy short-term closed arleady. and  a really short-term usd/cad closed too, I really do not like to be double long/short in currencies. and Im adding more to my eur/gbp long, code name Pop socks.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Fuck – Just read comments below ! This stock market is to fool people. And 90% (arbit figure) of the time goes against your ‘feelings’. It will make you feel something  and then do the fucking opposite of that. It traps you all the time. It’s just traps after traps. Like a fucking minefield. That’s why it’s many times best to do the opposite crowd. That’s why we have put-call ratios, sentiment indicators – suggesting doing the opposite works many times. That’s not all to it though.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s why you develop a systematical approach and forget about your ‘feelings’. Simple. Can be done. But takes hard work and discipline. Many people are in it for the quick buck – and wind up broke.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sad thing is that he probably lost the subscription fee many times over trying to follow his intuition. Hey, I can only build it – not everyone will see value 😉

  • Anonymous

    nope..I disagree, and what your name implies is perfect to explain the right state of mind for trading. Lets not blame the markets for being a battle zone. We are soldiers, discipline. 

  • Anonymous

    Careful Its better to let DX get below 75 and let the market show you the dollar rally is over before shorting. These levels are support. If 75-76ish level holds you should get long the dollar.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “so its a hobby/intellectual challenge right now”

    That may be the problem mate – and quite frankly unless you are serious and force yourself to walk through the valley of the shadow of death it’s not something you’ll be able to learn properly.

    Everything you earn in life will require a sacrifice – it’s a zero sum game just like the market.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Damn. everything in life? :((

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    yes. fully agree. question/suggestion – Why not have a 1 week free trial on the site? Most of the non-subs don’t know what they are missing I think. Or even 3 day trial if 1 week is too much.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because we already give a lot away for free AND people would abuse it.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    not blaming. just stating what it is. it’s a mean beast..is all i am saying..

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d1e46182-e107-49bd-b390-20fad4faa39d/2011-10-24_2206.png

    meh that thing. usd/zar is my only exposure to short dollar.  Not concerned. Be first, Be smart, or cheat. Im even tempted to do a eur/usd or eur/jpy order.the index does not really  factor in  my zar it is more a pissing match between euro and usd. So honestly the index is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. you can see what the us is week against with fx.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    futures down today without cracking means markets gonna be up again tomorrow morning. I am guessing..

  • Anonymous

    Mole,

    Regarding AUD/JPY, is the NLBL indicated by the blue arrow? 

  • Anonymous

    Did someone mention NFLX earlier? AH -27% Geeezzz!

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    I wouldn’t expect any breakouts overnight either way. The big moves always happen during the US session. Everyone else usually flounders along until our markets open.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    hmmmm…quite true. but not always the case I think. But tmrw should be up at open..

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Lost $ 672,000 !!!!!!! Sold 700 Nov 110 PUTS    6 minutes ago    That’s 70,000 shares, only had $470,000 in my account.I was playing a technical bounce but got nailed.Does chapter 11 cover Broker debts ? approx balamce is $300,000-My house is paid for, can they take it ?Wife said back in 2002, next time you do this, we are done.Her parents are wealthy and they tossed us 500k to recover from a short that went bad in 2002. Suggestions ?

    saw this on NFLX yahoo msgboard…

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

  • Anonymous

    darwin award nominee.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Return your Puts to its place, for all those who sell the Puts will perish by the Puts.”
    Book of Mole, Chapter 1:3

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    NFLX is such a big stock now. How does it lend to technical analysis/any logic? Any one can make sense of it? Show a chart?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    can’t make sense, price could drop to a fibonacci level.
    say 75?
    but if this month was the doji of a bear flag move, we could overshoot to 50?

    http://i56.tinypic.com/akdhjd.png

    -my 2 grams

  • Anonymous

    there isn’t significant support until about $40, so could easily fall until then imo. from 2003 to 2009 was a big ascending triangle.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    that’s the bottom trendline of it’s channel. but I don’t think it’s going there. anyone else has other levels?

  • Anonymous

    here’s a chart

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    I think it could have bottomed in after hours. If it stays above/around 87.8 level tomorrow – it should hold. 

    Else it will go to 59 next it looks like..

  • Anonymous

    Is ZeroFX stuck?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Data feed seems to have crapped out while I was out in class. Reloading it now. Also, I have contacted my data feed provider to sort this out as I saw this happen last week.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t waste your time with trolls.

    Focus.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright – she’s ticking again.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    thanks. yeah. 

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/4f9d982b-9612-43ee-93a1-4c2554d8e2ac/2011-10-21_1748.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ecfaa865-f44e-4202-b734-793457a25606/2011-10-25_0657.png
    Good morning! How are my sadomasochism kitties doing?  remember no one can hear you scream in space no matter how loud you try….In all serious careful today gentlemen. Important to protect profits.

  • Anonymous

    Wow! Bet allot lost there ass on that one! Buyer at 40;)

  • Anonymous

    Looking like 1.38 for the Euro & 1245 /ES;) You there GG?

  • Schwerepunkt

    8am candle marking the range. Like clockwork. Pre-market time from 8-9:15 is usually a series of little reversals as various parties position, square up, get ready for the cash. I think I’m going to start getting up earlier and scalp this time-frame like a maniac. Less risk of being on the wrong side of a trend day.

    Edit: and the other benefit of this is you’re done by 10am and can do whatever you like for the rest of the day knowing you’ve made your doss already.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone pass the coffee to the closer

  • Anonymous

    Is anyone trading AUD/JPY now?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always.
    1.386 I have my line.

  • Anonymous

    What time frame do you use most of the time for trading?

  • Schwerepunkt

    In my  best Troy Polamalu voice:

    You makin’ fun of me?!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hourly.
    15m for entries.
    I like to peek at 5m, but it usually just gets me blood pressure up.

  • Schwerepunkt

    We’ve got a megaphone pattern since 11am yesterday. 

    http://screencast.com/t/Hlh1IRfxNdA

    And that usually means: http://www.trending123.com/patterns/reverse_symmetrical_triangle.html

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    heck no.
    coffee is for closers.
    it’s a sign of respect.

    you do what makes coin.

    some just want to roll out of bed, watch 10min of ‘news’ and place their bet.
    and a casino is what they get.

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, no, no. You didn’t read the script. I’m supposed to ask you once, you say “no.” I ask you again with a more serious Troy Polamalu voice and you meekly answer “yes.” Get with the program rodent.  😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /es has dropped for the past 70 minutes.
    it may be nothing.
    but, if it keeps rolling – by Market open – it would be something to watch for. (downhill momentum selling)

  • Anonymous

    Short entry on /GC 1660.9

  • Anonymous

    Thanks!

  • Schwerepunkt

    It’s making a run for the bottom of the mega-phone. If it continues down through that, we’ll get people piling on the selling.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Schwerepunkt

    Case shiller now; might wobble a bit.

  • Anonymous

    Next stop 1230?

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES either rises from about 1240-41 or will be dumped, per resolution of megaphone/broadening top.

    http://screencast.com/t/nHlZK83Hzf4j

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    We’ve got hammers on Euro 5m; the lower megaphone line might hold. 

  • Anonymous

    Moved stops to lock in profit, tired of settling for B/E and then losing profits.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Schwerepunkt

    Eurobabble coming on line now.  Probably a good bet to hedge/adjust/close shorts. The addict is getting his fix.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Consumer Confidence is a big number at 10am. Again, the number is not that important, the volatility these releases produce is, if for no other reason than stop placement.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Nice candle on the 30 min Euro in the making;)

  • Schwerepunkt

    1.389 is the new Linguine Line. Watch that like a hawk.

  • Schwerepunkt

    OK, lower line of Megaphone is possibly busted to the downside. So far broken just by a few ticks. I’d look to Euro for confirmation, unless ES drops fast and furious which will be confirmation by itself.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Wow, there she blows. Maybe there’s something to these broadening tops?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX T-ending.
    confirmed.

    http://i54.tinypic.com/301puly.png

  • Schwerepunkt

    UK: There Will Be No Euro-Zone Finance Ministers Meeting Wednesday

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    topped out it seems!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Fell off a cliff there. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now you see why crazy GG tracks T’s?

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    You going to short any ST reversals now?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’m not doing anything.
    volatility on the options is probably crazy, right now.
    i’m not going to even look.

  • Anonymous

    5min ZL is dead, but the MOLE indicator is working, now it’s working and there’s a gap…what’s with those gaps?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I never said you were crazy. I like your Ts and rings! But did you see how that megaphone played out TEXTBOOK?

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes.  it did.
    good work.
    rats together, do better.

  • Anonymous

    AM what do the circles represent….never seen those before you started posting them?   Thanks

  • Schwerepunkt

    Now, Im thinking about shorting again when ES bumps up against the bottom megaphone line. Will watch Euro for signals when it happens.

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    Watch out for the egg management fees . . . 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    my poor Bull FAS (short) friend.
    his account was suspended yesterday.
    he panicked yesterday.
    and currently he would have been at break even with hope of slight profits.
    (sigh)
    :-)

  • Anonymous

    Hum, interesting?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    high in cholesterol.

  • Anonymous

    1240 area?

  • Anonymous

    Tough to read here.  Mole is heading back up, ZL has a big data gap and seems to be digging a hole.  I’m a bit at sea as to what to make of zero here – others are acting within normal range for a pull back of this size (i.e. wiggling and waggling but not showing concrete signs of reversal yet).  Usual corelations for “risk off” trade holding – copper down, treasuries up, dollar up.  I guess we’ll find out soon enough how many minutes tick has spent below zero. 

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/3fc43b2f-49f4-4e0d-8359-30cd15002fcd/2011-10-25_0946.png
    haha the news sometimes..euro sinks on news from eu meeting canceled. Look at that chart, sinked? umm no its called profit taking and just plain ole math, news analysis are always trying to paint the bullseye around the dart. They could say “euro sinks on news of “happy feet” movie being canceled and fit it in with any 9:30 move.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes.

  • Anonymous

    OK, Thanks!

  • Anonymous

    just the area of compression, reflection. nothing special really. 

  • Anonymous

    Ok thanks

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here’s how it played out so far:

    http://screencast.com/t/aTB3HPODFr

  • Anonymous

    HAAA! that chart scared me, happy Halloween i guess.

  • http://wetorp.blogspot.com/ Wetorp

    I’m blind, I’m blind! :(

  • Schwerepunkt

    U shd see ur doctor ’bout dat . . . 

  • Anonymous

    JJ will get this probably but the reason the markets just popped lower is because I had a nzd/jpy position…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no!
    it was the T on the AUD/JPY.
    didn’t you pay attention!!!?

  • Anonymous

    looks like we’re painting a down-trend day so far

  • Schwerepunkt

    I thought maybe you were banging your meat on the keyboard; a variation on the mythical “fat finger trade.”

  • Anonymous

    Check out /GC, WTF? Re-shorted that poke;)

  • Anonymous

    I havent seen it can I have a lookie see again. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    I never know if GC goes up because of fear or risk-on?  Isn’t that kind of contradictory? Gold is a bizarro asset.

  • Schwerepunkt

    POMO TWISTFed Buys Coupon Securities OutrightLast update: 10/25/2011 10:15:17 AM

  • Anonymous

    (tears in my eye) so freaking funny!! from zeroedge ”As we warned an hour or so ago… Euro plunges.” really laughing here, oh good job guys! a real thumbs up! hahaha

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t read that trash.
    hide it under your bed for nighttime reading.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    HAHAHAHA!!! jesus christ please stop my abs hurt!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Getting back to resistance, churn level, vwap. going to watch Euro and 10ma NYSE Tick, which is flirting with the zero line for signals.

  • Schwerepunkt

    How do you embed a chart into a comment? I’m just using a Jing url.

  • Schwerepunkt

    GG how do you put a thumbnail chart or whatever into your posts?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I just paste in the direct URL link.
    tiny pic allows me that.
    can’t help with Jing.

  • Anonymous

    anybody leery of that commodities spike just now….is ben getting the Sikorsky warm? is someone in europe in the know…

  • Schwerepunkt

    VWAP being cleared, TICK not playing ball and Euro adding support. Not shorting here.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’m leery of everything. Hence, short-term, right-sized positions, with tight stops.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – 10m

    triple bottom, or trying to puke?

  • Anonymous

    hourly inside candle on /es

  • Anonymous
  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    on trend days and $tick 2 days ago
    Not a gold trader But lines look right – gold’s channel. should move to around 1750 level next – and stocks going down…good to see ya MM !

  • Anonymous

    the 11AM candle is inside the inside (10AM) candle

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    back to back inside candles i guess..

  • Anonymous

    You can take a horse to zerohedge but you cant make it read crap :-)

  • Anonymous

    Now, if only i had the zero or the TrendAlert or ZeroFX, i would at least know if it was wise or not wise to go long or short!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone call convictScott..stat!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    take the smaller inside lines (I believe he would say – tight setup).

  • Schwerepunkt

    I would think a break of 1228 or 1244 would indicate the next direction move.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, of coarse risk-on. This to me is not an ordinary candle. When you see a candle like that it tells me a massive trigger. Avg now @ 1671.8 & short /ES 1240 as well;) This also concurs with ZL! Next candle will tell! Funny thing, “what happen to the volume on /CG!”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jing uploads to scree cast.com and puts the link into your cache. Paste that URL into your browse and then click on the actual image. Manually copy that link and paste it into your comment.

    Sounds more complicated than it is…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Stay Frosty my friends.
    (pass me the milkshake)

    oh, SPY love.

    off to serve The Man.

    -Ciao

    http://i56.tinypic.com/23jlqn7.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Less wisecracks – more charts! Focus people – you know who you are.

  • Anonymous

    mole should I be reading the ZL as positive div? even though it is still under the zero line?  Thanks

  • Schwerepunkt

    Repost of my chart showing the megaphone breakdown. Really just testing whether the image will show up as an attachment. Still, it is interesting. I see overhead resistance at 1244-ish.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Schwerepunkt/folders/Jing/media/3ebc10ca-a3ca-4b0d-b896-054e6a568f07/2011-10-25_1133.png

  • jigdaddy

    bottoms are events and tops are a process…

    zero illustrates that perfectly.

  • Tronacate

    Back inside the megaphone on the hourly ZERO

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks. It was the clicking on the actual image and using that longer url that that I wasn’t doing.

  • Anonymous

    /ES stop to 1238 to lock in 2 pts.

  • Tronacate

    Is the Zero hourly divergence still in play……been eyeing that for awhile…..

  • Anonymous

    Tron the way I see it the lower right panel has pos div which I am playing….went long earlier at 123.8

  • Tronacate

    I’ve been eyeing the tops on wed and yesterday and the fall back into the megaphone……..but maybe that’s too long term

  • Anonymous

    Ok just using it to help me daytrade….has worked for me well so far but not 100% sure I am using it for all its worth

  • Anonymous

    one last push likely it’s looking..

  • Anonymous
  • Tronacate

    GMCR

  • nyse

    Yowza!

  • bshah

    why not CMG is like that ? NFLX and GMCR both had their glory days… somehow someone is keeping that mf.. cmg alive and pumping… ?

  • tradingmom

    Havent’ read any comments, been out all day.  Look at the big bear wedge on the 5 min zero though.

  • Anonymous

    Does anyone know of a free charting website for 10+/lifetime year charts?

  • Schwerepunkt

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/
    Fairly simple charts, but the data can go back a long time.

  • Tronacate

    waiting for the high flyers to take their beating……

  • Anonymous

    Just testing if i can post a ‘cached’ chart
    http://barchart.com/cache/4cd22a85dffdb1ecdcb0b70648e90b78.png
    Anyway, is this useful $tick chart – howcome baseline seems to be 10,000 rather than 0

  • Anonymous

    Maybe a couple of trendlines are due for the bottom 1hrZL, from last Monday.

    3 points on the bottom, 2 points on the top

    WHADDAYALL THINK?

  • Anonymous

    yeah, checked that earlier. Terrible for charting and display is too small. I guess best to stick to TOS that I have on home laptop..

  • Anonymous

    Seeing two different things on zero.  Nice upward trend and even a bit of a positive divergence earlier this morning (i.e. positive).  However, punched above VWAP with very little in the way of confirmation from zero (negative).  I read that as “Warning, Will Robinson!  High risk of whipsaw.”  While I am not asking anyone to trade for me, I am more than happy to hear from anyone who thinks I am just reading zero upside down and backwards. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    NYSE Credit margin debt is falling, though it is higher than last year. OTOH, it dropped in September while last year it had a nice jump from Aug-Sep.

    http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8

    Edit: Maybe our resident statisticians can do something with this info? I’m not very good with Excel.

  • volar
  • Anonymous

    uups. what made you do this?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Ask for and you shall receive . . . 

  • Tronacate

    HANS

  • volar

    ya back when everybody was all bullish i posted this….

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=21108
     
    &&

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=21236

  • Schwerepunkt

    I remember those chart dumps now. Made my head spin . . . 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Are those recent?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    stockcharts.com?

  • volar

    SEP data released today

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    sorry, not sure what is clearer   I’m a little thick, you know

  • Anonymous

    sds are pretty reset now it looks clear to finish off the low(unlikely) probabilities prices.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Looks like we have dualing megaphones. Support/resistance lines converging soon.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Schwerepunkt/folders/Jing/media/94d2aa1a-f4f1-4537-afb3-a98c81f3c19a/2011-10-25_1333.png

    Edit: waiting for a breakout on the reverse megaphone, also called a symmetrical triangle.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    yeah. subscribe version gives. free version only 3 yr charts..

    http://stockcharts.com/sales/free.html

  • Tronacate

    FSLR

  • Anonymous

    Blue Spikes on zfx AUD/JPY – Are those huge or did the scale change?  Is a .6 Big?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    13 hours later….. $77.42

    why not?
    :-)

  • Anonymous

    EOD rally ???????

  • Anonymous

    are you a trader or just a prognosticator?

  • Anonymous

    Trader but not looking to trade 1% swings…trying to catch bigger swings only…
    thanks

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Anonymous

    Anyone noticed that the ES 5 min looks like Daily chart!  If so, perhaps we will make lower lo for the day and shoot for the MOON, or Pie in the Sky.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    HUGE – and it’s not .6 – it’s -6. This was a good time to get out of that trade.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/23fc7999-453f-4477-8529-9fa5b2962e71/2011-10-25_1404.png
    I had to morph this thing again. Blue line will most likely get hit for now. then we will see the true deal. very tense so it could scale the entire thing down to only rip higher.

  • Anonymous

    touched 71.97 in premarket and a good trader predicted 72 last night..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    New post anyone?

  • Anonymous

    Yes, lets have a new post! :-)

  • Anonymous

    Exhaustion selling?

  • Anonymous

     soybeans charting, 
    today’s reversal after the open was on declining volume. breached but did not close above NLBL on the hourly. On Friday it held the NLSL on the Daily, NLBL is at 1259, now sitting near the 25 MBB at 1225seems we are at a juncture, so a good move likely comingwant to be short here with the Daily MA’s pointing down, but no edge yet,that I can see at least

  • Anonymous

    To me Lewis in this film based his character on John Huston