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If At First You Don’t Succeed
77

If At First You Don’t Succeed

by The MoleSeptember 15, 2016

Try try again! But obviously one must draw a firm line between becoming obsessive in chasing the tiger’s tail and being able to pull the trigger when the odds appear to be in our favor. Which is only possible if we have defined a clear set of rules ahead of time which clearly define what is considered an entry opportunity and what is not. So let’s see what we’re dealing with today:

2016-09-15_rv

Actually this is a rather simple scenario although I concede that it may look a bit frightening at first glance. But first impressions are often designed to deceive, and that is a big part of the game we play here on a daily basis.

  • We have switched into clear trending sessions with low intra-day volatility.
  • The bearish and bullish trends are taking turns producing whipsaw intended to shake out participants and draw in funny money.
  • It seems that sellers are now starting to dominate the conversation as yesterday’s RV signal is accompanied by tepid but downside tape.
  • The side which can dominate the next session or two will most likely win the argument.

2016-09-15_spoos

Although sellers seem to be suddenly in charge it’s not yet clear that they are going to win this battle. The current whipsaw leaves us with several plausible scenarios, many of which are however difficult in terms of taking entries. The two I consider most advantageous are indicated on the hourly panel above:

  • Green suggest taking out long positions here or on a drop lower until about 2105. Your stop should be near or below 2100.
  • If 2100 is breached a short entry is a possibility but I personally would prefer a drop followed by a late session safe which propels us back higher near the 2100 mark. A proverbial ‘last kiss goodbye’ scenario that would most likely be followed by overnight selling after which we see the deluge of long positions being taken to the woodshed.

2016-09-15_eur

As an expat living in Europe you bet that I follow the EUR on a daily basis. Thus far I’ve produced a pretty solid track record on timing my trips to the ATM. Of course from a trading perspective we’ve enjoyed a few good runs but it has become more difficult in recent weeks as the magnitude of the swings are diminishing.

Shown above are the weekly and monthly panels and the unfolding sideways pennant formation is becoming more and more pronounced. The odds would traditionally support continuation lower, however let’s keep in mind that we’re dealing with a highly manipulated currency here, so technical precedence has only limited value.

What we can rely on however are the types of traps that are usually employed to draw in a maximum number of suckers ahead of a big move. And in this case I would expect the final resolution of this stalemate to be preceded by one last fake out move. And in the context of such an assumption whatever breach we see first would be considered most likely the wrong one. I can’t guarantee you that this is exactly what will happen but I can promise you that I personally won’t take any entries here unless I see a breach followed by a recover back inside the triangle.

By the way the CME currency futures roll over tonight, so make sure you do the same if you’re exposed.

2016-09-15_gold

Gold is another symbol on my waiting list right now. Given by what I’m seeing on the daily panel the bulls seem to have the advantage but only to a point. A drop below 1300 would most likely send a lot of longs heading to the hills, which is why this is exactly the type of scenario that is most lucrative from an entry perspective. Here a drop lower followed by short term buying interest (i.e. a spike low or an hourly NLBL breached) is where I would be interested in taking out a small long position with a respectable ISL below 1290ish.

Of course we do have actual setups today, please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • yudhisthira

    Got my mouse helmet on. Cute.

  • ridingwaves

    VXO and VIX are not playing together today, so far they are on different ball fields

    the ugly data today screams more of the same from The Yellanator next week…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zero is stuck

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll check it out…

  • Yoda

    not for me

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nope, seems to be running fine…

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t know Mole….with $ still holding and rates changing I’d say gold isn’t quite so ad-in.

  • ridingwaves

    Dollar is dead Jim….It will need rate hike next week to overcome huge overhead resistance here in 96 area….if not 87 here we come

  • Yoda

    Great post. Fits exactly the trades that I’m interested in. Yeah, get ready for fake-outs galore as the next trending moves are likely to be strong .

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah… I may be a missing-his-brain Spock zombie just following my setups…but everyone stay puckered for surprize on this one; I’m shorting miners.

  • ridingwaves

    odds favor no surprise before election but if they did, a global selloff that will test all bulls would be in order….

  • yudhisthira

    Poke above trend line ES. http://screencast.com/t/OjoDJOuKxWwp

  • Mark Shinnick

    I just don’t have any other of that sort of read on this problem other than the current setups….no reason price has to do anything at all, of course.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looks good now. I think it was the new Android update. You can usually swipe down to refresh, but looks like they broke the feature

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…encouraging to the BTD crowd.

  • Billabong

    Why short the miners? It’s like oil, the MSM is filled with bad news stories good for the circular file. Currently, miners are neutral on the daily. It could go either way depending on follow-through to the previous 3-4 candles and ETFs vs individual equities. I would be interested in your thoughts on shorting miners.

  • ridingwaves

    having the funds sitting ready to play a surprise move would be most important on such an event…

    Metals OPEX is week after….on 9/27

  • ridingwaves

    I’m jumping in next week, miners were ripe for take down and enough bullish specs to make sure of it on opex….

  • Yoda

    VIX slamming time for OPEX

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda
  • kudra

    GDX just took back and held $26.50 after the early morning stop run to sub $26. I got faked out and am short GDX. This has been a volatile monkey lately, but monthly trend is down.

  • Mark Shinnick

    In my lens vol had achieved its upward measuring objective the other day, but unless support clearly broken and rates drop again, I’m trading this as a new equity shorting opportunity.

  • kudra

    probably just noon hour shenanigans, but GDX just lost 26.50.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..at the risk of having more lenses that an optometrist.
    2138/9 is significant on the weekly.

    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08722970626

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, so entered short miners.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So far so good…

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So does that mean I finally got on your X-Mas list?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I really tried to give Android a chance. Bought four of them over the past few years and hated every single of them. Finally relented and bought an iPhone 5 – all I really needed (prefer small screen). Should have done it years ago.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Soooo….. y’all know what I’m gonna ask, don’t ya? 😉

    http://www.gmvoices.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/SamElliott.jpg

  • OJuice

    Looking for some good divergences to enter a short. Wondering if it can make it all the way to the 50s…

  • OJuice

  • Mark Shinnick

    Things going according to trade plans. :)

  • OJuice

    Could I bother you for an updated version of chart 1 from today’s post?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yup. There they go. I wanted to do some XIV but it really doesn’t pay much as a % and often uses my Reg T+3 buying power but I knew to stay away. “They” whomever, always go into challenges head on. Maybe after the election bears can ‘try” to kick the ball again. Anyone have a guess on 10Year yield? heading back down? I am going to Refi and thought I missed my chance here. Hoping for one last rally to short and one last yield drop. which me luck. House looking great!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Why are you and O Juice posting pictures of guys today? no chicks?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, a few posts ago you had showed a chart of copper that looked like a good long at the time. After some gyrations and shakeouts, it looks like its moved on up. I took a small profit on an upward gyration and called it a day. I was wondering if you had gone long Copper from back then and if you were still in the trade.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m pretty much with you on looking to short the rally and keeping powder dry. I’m just looking for 10y change in trend suggested by last few days.

  • Billabong

    There are also women on this site that like a good looking guy once in awhile…

  • Billabong

    Thanks … I’ll check it out.

  • Billabong

    OPEX this week and full moon tomorrow … yummy!

  • Billabong

    When does front running next week’s FOMC mtg begin…..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m an old crusty SOB and the world is feminized enough as it is…

  • ridingwaves

    2161-5 spx, needs to break and stay above that number before I get warm and fuzzy bullish

    Crude looks to be making higher lows, if it climbs higher from here, all time highs could be back in play…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe the cause to this rally? :)
    https://youtu.be/jThIEBZRgs4

  • Tomcat

    I too, recently took profits. But wouldnt be surprised to see this above 2.2

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, has a lot to prove to me too.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Vacuum a good argument…but I’m still seeing vol support…would prefer to see it come under some more marginal attack before shorting equities,

  • ridingwaves

    risk looks on in healthcare/biotech again….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Those can take advantage of the confidence and cycle quickly enough I suppose.

  • ridingwaves

    via my view, could change any moment and just one sector….

  • kudra

    looking good. you holding overnight?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It amazes how the crowd continues to desperately connect trading activity with past news. WHY? What is the purpose? There is no personal satisfaction or financial benefit in doing so.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t wait for this circus to be over in November.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There ya go…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Call him ‘the Dude’…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Market goes up – retail thinks of shorting – giggity..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It appears NOBODY took my entries earlier this morning. I think I’m going to call it a week, this is too depressing.

  • Yoda

    Well never though about it, but since you propose, the kids could use a mole as pet for X-mas 😉

  • M E

    No! I went long! Thank you!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I was long NQ

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I was long NQ, still am

  • Tomcat

    On the contrary, I think many did, and now are out to celebrate…

  • almez

    On monday the market rebounded hard after the selloff, as well as having the zero end in sharply positive territory. I went long during the day. However, the next couple days weren’t so pretty. I have a stop for my long at 2110 but I missed some opportunities holding. What OJ said could easily apply to what happened monday, so I don’t agree with your implied comment.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I know. In the mean time I believe we should be able to identify some new tradable trends.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…completely amazing too is how the media is so fond of serving-up its own desperate explanations for the why behind any new market gyration.

    I guess the desperation might be because not everyone has a preponderance of “N” and “T” Intuition and Thinking in their daily experience of the markets…so end up craving BS to fill that vacuum?

  • Yoda

    LOL at Deutsche Bank’s 14 B$ fine imposed by DOJ.
    I think DB’s reply would be NEIN! and DOJ can’t do squat about it without risking the collapse of the whole financial system.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…this reminds me of the fantastic overreach also affecting every global bank, immensely chilling to American’s freedoms to do international business, because each bank is compelled to rat with IRS forms on each US person seeking to business with them.

  • Yoda

    If you are a US citizen or Green Card holder it’s very hard to have a bank account outside the US in a foreign bank.

  • ridingwaves

    still long XIV..
    S hit on MSTX
    L CEMP

  • Tomcat

    Not sure about that…if you have money…there are plenty of countries you can deposit it in…Panama, Cayman Islands are just a few examples.

  • Tomcat

    Taking a shot at L $CL here…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    A stock that I haven’t seen discussed here, but which makes up for a significant % of my 401k portfolio is $TWTR. Maybe this is not the right venue (given the shorter term focus) to share this, but I see this as a double in the next few years (either a standalone company or taken out).

  • Tomcat

    And the Asskicker is here…let’s see how quick is its first casualty:
    https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/asskicker-coffee-packs-nearly-half-the-lethal-dose-of-caffeine

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Its only model setup based, but all the models based on perception – that’s the only real thought / thinking about it.
    This is so parochial to my evolved personal methods and is only partial insight, but in general everything is always based on price….and recognition that trading is also something of a analytical art about what perceived price behavior is suggesting for the gaining of some sort of edge. If a perception of a monthly, weekly, or daily setup doesn’t exist, I move to one of the intraday charts for guidance. That procedure, while applied also directly the miners, isn’t done in this environment until its done for $ and rates….so there is some art. Ultimately, of course, none of any of the perception should be taken too seriously if prices go perverse.