Impasse

As I always keep drilling into your collective skulls: It’s never about the news driven spikes, it’s always about what follows next. Granted the former have been responsible for most of the upside progress in equities over the past few years:

It’s a sad picture but it is what it is – I for one have long given up on expecting change. In the end we are all but humble steel rats feeding off the crumbs that fall by the sideways. Anyway, if you want to get a sense of future direction then you don’t look at what already happened, you look at what is not happening. Ignore the obvious (or what they want you to see) and focus on what’s missing (or what they want you to miss). Simple rule of misdirection – ask any grifter or watch Hustle – great BBC series that will teach you more about trading psychology than any pertinent book. And it’s more entertaining.

And I would have to say that any follow up to the fiscal cliff agreement spike is most solidly lacking. As you can see the E-Mini is now wedged between a volume hole below and a volume abyss looming above. Which may explain the excruciating sideways tape we had to endure in the past few sessions.

NYSE UVOL and DVOL – not exactly a picture of health right now. Yesterday we actually closed in the green despite the fact that UVOL was leading by far. Call me skeptical about the prospect of our 1600 price objective. I rarely doubt my P&F charts but this old dog has seen horses puke before.

Nevertheless – nobody seems worried and we almost touched the 13 mark today over in the VIX. Boy what I wouldn’t give to see us drop below that mark. That ought to be interesting and I would consider it to be my patriotic duty to switch into long vega extra evil speculator mode.

Quick update on cable. The 100-day SMA broke yesterday and we are now effectively short with a stop above the dropping 100-hour SMA. Why that one? Because it’s dropping, unlike the daily one, grasshopper!

Dollar – I hope you grabbed that speculative long entry on Monday because we seem to be picking up momentum.

To give you an idea of the implications of this setup. IF we actually manage to close above that weekly NLBL (left panel) it would represent enormous progress for the long term. Not out of the woods by far – there’s still the matter of that 100-month SMA.

But we did get a nice entry and we took it (I hope you guys!). I concede that the odds of continuation are iffy – however an entry is an entry and if it manages to climb higher it may trigger quite a few shorts. Always worth the effort in my book.

Cocoa – you may recall that short entry from Monday. Looking good so far but it’s painting an inside day. A breach of the long trigger tomorrow would be my stop out. A drop below the short trigger is confirmation. If you are not in this one yet then these are your entry points – have at it.

More below for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 9th, 2013 at 2:28 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    13 VIX on the 13th for 2013?
    who knows. wait, VIX isn’t open on Sunday. Hmmmm.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p10845172001

  • itslance

    Covered LVS but kept some lottery tickets

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    nice play, I’ve been stalking it too, no short yet

  • itslance

    Thanks.  I like trading it because it almost always has large intraday swings, even on those boring snoozefest days.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Rightside_ot_trade

    ID’s look good, DBL ID on /HG
    looking thru Credit Commodities and Currencies, very narrow ranges on many except yen currencies and /PA /PL

  • Joe_Jones

    indeed

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    IWM looks to be strongest of main indexes. 5c from HOD.
    FB will rule the world (fully outside of all BBands !)

  • AmazingLarry

    Miners still rolling over. HUI looking terrible. GDX right back to long term support TL. SVM just took out 2010 support levels. Got a bearish PO on SLW of 28. VIX at 13. BPGDM still with room to get buried. Yowza. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Removing the foot and leaving one toe in VXX overnight. Mole’s travelling tomorrow after all ;-)

  • itslance

    I REALLY want to short FB, but it’s not officially oversold yet on the RSI

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tomorrow night – so you guys will have to wait a few more hours for the big stock crash of 2013.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     The way it looks now, I’m not going to fight the turns. Will wait to see how reaction goes and maybe buy more

  • Joe_Jones

    Hehehe, the bear bus can wait one more day. I’d love to see one final ramp and the VIX below 13 before backing up the truck on puts 

  • itslance

    The intraday chart actually looks like one big bull flag and the VIX started dropping at near the close.  I wouldn’t be surprised if your wish comes true.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    the move up from Mid February is possibly ending DeMark Sell13. 
    But its still in a new momo move up from 12/31 (a nice entry on that ID fail above the 100MA) I’ll short tomorrow if todays low is taken out   
    http://screencast.com/t/RIsGLgE1rsw6

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    got a short entry on GBP

  • Th3_Acist

    GBP/USD bounce off 1.60 has been extremely weak, been short since 1.62 and holding on I think it’s going to breach soon.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The vultures are standing by… 

  • Skynard

    Do you see the same thing with that candle @ 1.55?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    AUD/JPY at hourly NLBL – mole signal on the 5-min.

  • Skynard

    Hehe, just shorted:)

  • Th3_Acist

    Yeah TOS is all f’d up it’s taking them forever to fix this last patch… ;-(

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It is seriously FUBAR!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m always horrified when they announce a new release and I get one of those cutsy emails. They have spent a lot of time on new features while stuff is breaking all over the place. I have told them for months now to focus on stability. It’s like launching a space shuttle – very little margin for mistakes when it comes to trading. You want to devote more time to focusing charts than on marketing’s feature request # 20409.

  • AMCabrera
  • Th3_Acist

    Shocking that they don’t realize their mistakes and just roll the update back, I haven’t been able to look at a NZD/USD chart in a week…you’d think they would back test their own software updates when they talk about back testing investment ideas so much…sigh.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e5b0340d-96d5-41c1-b229-92225f4dcedd/2013-01-09_1753.png
    anyhow that is not my focus the aud/usd is and shortly no pund intended the nzd/usd will be too. Early this morning I took my 20 pips from the aud/usd repositioning half lot below full lot WAY above.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/310477d1-aa51-4e32-9934-7478b9651f7e/2013-01-09_1758.png

    bears in the spx need to be very wary of what is occurring here and it may result in an up lift. Of course indecision for now.

  • Skynard

    Ya, this range bound crap is driving me nuts:)

    Narrow BB on the hourly, should find out soon enough.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    take a look at GDX/NUGT
    triple bottom approaching.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    agreed.
    look at the leading AUD/JPY.  back around 92.50
    not exactly the picture of fear.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    four daily candles in a range.
    think ConvictScott.
    forget him.  oh Ivaaaan.?

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Looking for some pressure tonight. Did you short yet?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    bloody hell mate, NewZealand? I can’t keep up with your pairs.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    it’s complicated.
    let’s just say I’m heavily involved in Yen.
    EDIT: and have a vested interest in all of your rats commentaries.

    http://s7.postimage.org/qdkym3yiz/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    Was stopped out of my last long, was contemplating another one. Damn thing lost all of it’s gains.

  • Skynard

    Just let me know when you push that bloody button:)

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    lol really? I have been so quiet lately.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    I’m waiting till 93.50
    click my name for a blog chart.

  • AmazingLarry

    What’s the purpose of dividing the leveraged instrument into the instrument it tracks in the fist place? What am I to take from that?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    my bad.  I meant GDX or NUGT.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/46a29d32-ff1e-4e4c-9acd-7374e2f965ff/2013-01-09_1901.png

    very interesting. It could very well reach that later but for now I think it will be very difficult.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    so help me read this graphic.
    92.50 is a barrier on the opens?

  • Skynard

    For those who played AUDJPY, new buildings permits coming up @ 1930 hrs.

  • Th3_Acist

    GBP fading into the night…

  • BobbyLow

    The 3_Acist and Mole,

    I finally see what you guys were talking about on the TOS NZD/USD Chart.  I went Long Sunday Night at .8316 Based on the Daily and have been working my stops based only on price since.  The first couple of candles with no bodies I just overlooked but now I can see how screwed up they are as more and more candles with no bodies and prices within the bodies screwed up are happening.  

    I hope they fix this soon. 

  • AMCabrera

    IMO yes for the moment and 91.50 may be one too that is where I plan to take profit.

  • Th3_Acist

    Luckily the 4hr which I trade off of is fine for the most part, daily looks like swiss cheese…

  • Th3_Acist

    Very intriguing

  • AMCabrera

    you know one of these day I would love to see some of you guys in person. I shutter at the idea when this site starts to thin out and none of you are around. I know it could be many years from now. 

  • AMCabrera

    aud/usd was fast to stop me out..oh well placing it back at 1.0500 again and of course waiting at 1.0600

  • Curiousmind3861

    short squeeze for 25 pips in AUDUSD after china data. Funny thing is none of the others pairs are moving. EUR is few pips higher briefly and now has fallen lower.

  • Th3_Acist

    I don’t think that’s happening anytime soon, banking coin and being evil never gets old!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – 92.85

    BooYaah!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    let’s see if there’s CAKE by morning

    http://s7.postimage.org/npg5y85yz/green_cake.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    I might be able to take a trip to the East Coast.
    but I draw the line at a canoe ride. ;-)

    and sorry, waaaay too short notice to make Paris by Saturday.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    and tomorrow morning early we got BOE and ECB rate and press con

  • Skynard

    Fading the rally until this high is taken out.

  • Curiousmind3861

    I remember you have a T time for this pair on Jan 13. Are you saying it might be early? It almost hit 93. Unbelievable!!

  • Skynard

    Ha, that’s only 50 pips. Full short now on that sucka:)

  • Skynard

    Tagged the upper BB. Big move coming:)

  • Skynard

    Ha, poor data and rally? Seems a good short:)

  • thepercolator

    /LB & /KC both had ID and /ZW is a RVB – Attached is the current sentiment readings regarding those 3 commodities; Bearish for lumber and bullish for both coffee and wheat.  BTW – /CC also is in the top 5 with the most traders being bearish.

  • thepercolator

     Like the hard style, muchas gracias.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    click on my name for the chart.
    the 13th is on a Sunday.
    that said, the right side of my 2 Year T-post is conservative (3 trading days early and conservative)
    so this could run till next week.  That said, I look more to the Fibfan line as a sanity 
    check, and remember the “big move, go nowhere” thinking that not every day is a big long candle.

    Mole’s traveling too, so that cinches it.  Something Big will happen.

    -Gerb

  • Curiousmind3861

    Just wondering if the AUD shorts bus is empty with the countless short squeezes, esp in the AUDJPY pair…

  • Skynard

    With you being the contrarian of coarse.

  • thepercolator

    I would never be long SVM, IMHO it’s a short only.  I’ve done a lot of fundamental research on SVM which might get me banished from here, but their fundamentals are questionable to say the least. 

    There are much better silver companies with good fundamentals like; AG, MVG, SSRI, SLW (Though there might be a tax issue forth coming), TAHO, FSM, MUX (Though its got big copper exposure in Argentina no less) and TK.V.

  • thepercolator

    Of course, though it’s a lonely world with lots of losses just try to keep them as small as possible and when I do get it right well, then it’s all worth it. 

    Hey are you in Kzoo, Mi?

  • Skynard

    East side of MI, just north of Detroit. Been short /LE since the last ID, should be a good ride. Pierced the 100 BB weekly.

  • thepercolator

     That’s a good idea AMC.  I know that the Slope of No Hope does that or at least did it in the past, not that I ever attended, can’t believe I just admitted I frequented that site.  Anyways I’d be down as long as it’s some kick ass location – maybe we could all invade Spain for a week.

    What do you say Mole, can you and Valencia handle a bunch of us rats?

  • Skynard

    Trying a long with a tight stop here.

  • thepercolator

    I didn’t take the cattle ID cuz of the relatively flat BB’s & MA’s – I like it when they slope.

    I agree about the $ and being short, BUT KC has been pounded and the softs don’t seem to be as influenced as much as the grains and energies regarding the $’s direction.

    From past posts I recall you mentioned MI, but thought you said Kzoo.  I’m currently in Vegas and I’m moving back to the Mitten in May.  I grew up in GR. 
     

  • Skynard

    What are your thoughts on /OJ during a $rally?

  • Skynard

    Yen just re-tested.

  • thepercolator

    Removed

  • thepercolator

    Regarding /OJ the big driver right now is weather in FL – potential or lack of a freeze, so I’d be surprised if OJ sold off much more over the next month or so. Afterwards if there’s been no weather related
    damage then /OJ will go lower cuz of Brazil’s massive crop surplus and Europe where basically all its crop goes is essentially in a recession/depression.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it trade around $.60 again – seems it trades in huge swings over the long term.

    /ZW might start seeing some support cuz of weather across the globe. I find it hard to believe Russia’s wheat crop wasn’t effected by record cold temps since most of the area had little snow cover and the ongoing
    drought in the US is going to hurt this year’s crop which was just rated the lowest in the last 25 years:

    http://www.feedandgrain.com/ne

    I’m not saying the $ doesn’t influence prices, but when you’re dealing with agricultural commodities other variables can overwhelm a strong or weak $.

  • Skynard

    Thanks for the info, currently short /OJ and it made a higher high today with volatile price action. May place a buy order stop just in case.

  • thepercolator

    Good for you. 

    Waited for a set-up reversing outside BB, but down hill ever since should’ve, could’ve, would’ve shorted it :)

    I trade a much longer time frames than most here, but that said just looking at the chart I wouldn’t be surprised in some sort of rally as its at 9 month support around $1.05 and near the 100d BB.

    I hear you about the cold weather in the Mitten, something I’m NOT looking forward too.

    Where are you originally from?

  • Skynard

    Originally from Erie, PA. Not much better, but the wind cuts right through you.

  • thepercolator

    Forgot to mention only 29% are bullish on /OJ just another reason for a bounce here.  Get a cold weather forecast for FL and it will rally, but one that should be sold as long as it does no significant damage.

  • thepercolator

    I know I’ll get over to the motor city sometime, we’ll have to get a beer.

    And it wasn’t cold in Erie, PA?

  • thepercolator

     Yeah, the winds I know it well.

  • Skynard

    Sounds good, you know where to find me when your in town.

  • Skynard

    Nice call DG, think your number is up soon. Looks like Yen will test lower BB or double bottom at the same time.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This is what I got back about the TOS FX chart issue:

    “Word on the street is that it should tentatively be fixed in a week or two – but the date is not set in stone and can change if more testing is required.”

    If something breaks here on my end I usually fix it within hours. If would wait two weeks I would have a lynch mob on my hands. I can’t believe they accept two weeks of broken charts as their new normal. The company has gone down the tubes since Sosnoff sold it to TDA.

  • AMCabrera

    OOH DG are you awake aud/jpy is waiting for you.

  • AMCabrera
  • thepercolator

    Yeah TDA’s customer service among other things suck and I can say so because I was an RIA for nearly 15 years and about half my clients used them as a custodian – I’ve got stories about TDA that are hard to believe.

  • spicestory

    it’s look like RTVS until it isn’t

  • AMCabrera

    ADDING shorts to nzd/usd.

  • AMCabrera

    needless to say I will add shorts to aud/jpy at 93.50

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Looks like 30yr Bond breaking down from bear flag. Past this I don’t see any support close by.
    For me – TBT, cus I can’t go short

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Haven’t you been trying to short this thing all the way up?

  • Skynard

    Think the Yen is obviously key right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • AmazingLarry

    I realize ETF’s suck, but I’m getting short bond exposure with DTYS (double short ten year) and DLBS (double long bond short) in my IRA. 

  • captainboom

    I’m just north of Kalamazoo. Went to high school in Grandville.  If you and Skynard get together, I’d be happy to buy the first round.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    These two are illiquid. Bad enough to suffer from double-short decay, atleast TBT is liquid, trades 2+ mil shares versus 1000′s for DTYS and DLBS




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