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Inflection Point
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Inflection Point

by MoleSeptember 27, 2009

Anna here gang!

It appears that the $DXY is opening lower this evening, which would most likely be bullish for equities.  There is a huge Holiday starting tonight @ midnight  (Jewish Day of Atonement) September 27 and ends at nightfall on Monday September 28. so the volume will be quite light untill then.

Today the Nine Days of Mother Divine (Navaratri) end.

Tomorrow is the 10th Lunar Day in the current lunar cycle [from New Moon], in Vedic Astrology generally an ausipious day, and this time celebrated as Vijaya Dasami – when Light overcomes Darkness. Technicals suggest a bounce is likely. :-(

I and many other have suggested we are at an important inflection point here, we broke out of the upward channel we were in, but then failed with a blow off top and reversed and closed lower. This is a bearish engulfing candle, but the problem is the volume has been declining the last 3 days the tape went lower. So either we are going to make a stand and rush the bulls with all we got, or they are going to come roaring back and push back to retest the old highs and possibly higher.  That is why my 1122 is still so far is in play.

Now looking at the weekly it also looks like a we are nearing a definite change as the Stochastics and  MACD  are way in the overbought territory, and the BOTH  rolling over.  Unfortunately there is a possibility that we retest or make new highs. I certainly hope not, but we are at that inflection point, where we could paint new highs, or we may roll over and retrace to the 990 level.  Here is a snapshot of the 60 min SPX.

That would be awesome and of course we bears are really drooling over this scenario. At this point which is a bit further out, I see that last wave of poor retail buyers coming in and buying with abandon because “The World is right again, and we have NO ISSUES in the financial world, problems SOLVEDYea Right!

Then we should hit a high, which I will be shorting like a crazy girl and hopefully we ride in the 600 area or lower in March.  I say sometime in the first half of 2010 we definitely test our old lows 666.79 and hopefully lower and we are all on the speed train. :-)

Whichever plan works out our time is near and it will be SWEET~ and I for one will not miss it, and will add short positions on any rips.  I don’t know if anyone is familar with DMI. That is the Directional Movement Index, and on all the 3 indexes we are starting to get a negative or bearish movement.

Have a great trading week, and hope we would just paint the new highs, be done with it and move on down. But things don’t always work out the way you want.

There is a great chart from Berk on BIDU and MA. 2 of my favorite stocks to trade. :-) Check them out as they are very good!

A bonus for you that you must see! Once of the most fun stocks to trade (short) is BIDU and Berk has one beautiful chart of Bidu that I am looking to trade quite soon. Very juicy! :)


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thank you again Berk, excellent charts!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup yup… Anytime. You'll be seeing more where those came from… 😛

    Skål!

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    just a question to the FX experts … what the heck is going on with GBPJPY the past 3 days. I mean those moves are just nuts.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    HAHA, had to throw the music out there. Was listening to Supermassive Black Hole as I was finishing up the last of the charts. Didn't think THAT was the appropriate song (just yet). However, I think it might be my soundtrack as we get sucked back to the abyss…

    Skål!

  • dollar

    Thanks for the great charts, particularly the indexes, since I am shorting more broadly. Good music too – the way that guy treats his hotel room kinda reminds me of what goes on in my office sometimes…he must have had CNBC on that TV at the end…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looking at Annas SPY chart posted above, I suspect we have a slight bounce either tomorrow and possibly into Tuesday, and then drop further from our current levels. Unknowing bulls most likely see this moment as a dip buying oppurtunity but we have broken support levels. I personally do not see us going to 1120 anytime soon. We would need to break 1080 and it would need to occur over a period of 1 month, as the chart suggests that this move will not happen so quickly, as the bears are coming out and prior bulls are exiting positions, taking profits, on this change of trend.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Correction: I meant Anna's SPX chart above.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahaha Let's hope it's an omen for the nice bear treats to come! :)

  • dollar

    I said last week that I didn't think it was time now to be a chickenhawk bear, I think that is what Daneric is saying in his screed on coventional wisdom…

  • Keirsten

    Just remember that all of those indicators can be re-set in pre-market, so no guarantees there until we hear the bell. G/L tomorrow.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sweet! And I have some just awesome spreads on some of these juicy one's! In one day on RIMM on the bear put spread took 1/4 of the risk to make 200%. Now that's just plain fun! :))))) put out 1$ and credit back 3$. I am still smiling about that one.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Heaay Candle. correction noted…:) I am really hoping the bears can deliver sooner than later. :)But even if we retest or make new highs, just more room to fall! hehehe

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey K, yes the overnight action will have an effect on tomorrow, but that's what we have to work with right now.
    I hope the $DXY can bounce here, have a good night :)

  • Keirsten

    Yep… we'll know soon enough. You have a good night too, Anna. Nice job on the Sunday update tonight again! 😀

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thank you and let's bank some serious profit this week. 😀

  • reddragonleo

    Hi Girls and Boys….

    I got out of my shorts Friday around 1043 and went long. I'm still a bear, but I think those crackhead bulls are going to push this up to that magic 1100-1108 area. I posted a weekend update on my site. (No fancy charts like here, just my gut feelings with a little bit of past history to gauge it on).

  • dollar

    Talk about closing the barn door after the horse gets out: Mortgages: New Rules for High-Cost Loans take effect on Oct 1st
    On Oct. 1, new rules adopted by the Federal Reserve will go into effect, requiring greater diligence on the part of mortgage lenders and brokers who make so-called high cost loans for borrowers with weak credit. The interest rates on these loans are at least 1.5 percentage points higher than the average prime mortgage rate.

    The regulations — finalized in July 2008 but only now being put into effect — bar lenders from making a high-cost mortgage without verifying that a borrower could repay the loan in the conventional way, and not simply through a foreclosure sale.

    I wonder whether or not this will apply to the FHA, otherwise known as the new Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    As you should be… It was a sweet set-up and great trade. Kudos to you…

    Skål!

  • Joe8888

    Chart of the Daily Dow Jones,,,Which found Support – @ the August High's,

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Those are the days you know why you became a trader full time! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Red, No where to post on your blog?

  • reddragonleo

    What do you mean? It has disqus on it…

  • reddragonleo

    Are you going to my website? http://www.reddragonleo.com (which is where the blog is) or the NOT use http://reddragonleo.wordpress.com?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    For sure. MA had been treating me lovely since Wed. Letting put ride (up 175% in 2 days) and took the other one off (up 235% in 3 days). A good week/month in the market can bring us a full year's worth of income. Every time I get those insane gains I kinda smile that I dropped out of college. Much rather be doing this than some mouth breather job.

    In the real world, stupid people frustrate you. In the markets, stupid people just give you their money. I'd sure as hell rather have the latter!!

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I have to go to wordpress to leave a comment?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I love it!!!!!! My clone. hahahahah

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    boys and girls, Futs have turned red, now I am not getting too happy but they lost steam rather quickly and the dollar is coming back, just a nice sign for now. :)

  • reddragonleo

    No silly… just click on the “Posted in Uncategorized | 0 Comments” link and your disqus account should been logged in and available to post. It a wordpress blog with disqus comments.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    duh! LOL hahahah

  • reddragonleo

    You really are a blonde… aren't you?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahaha. just got it. LOL

  • dollar

    I take it you've been begging again…

  • springheel_jack

    3 ways SPX can go from an EW perspective as far as I can see having sampled multiple views over the weekend so here's one plan for next week which has attractive risk/reward because we are so near a key support level.

    Bullish Case: We are starting wave 5 up. Target 1099 – 1021. Invalidated below 1039.

    Bearish Case 1: We are starting wave ii up. Target 1050 – 1061. Invalidated at 1081.

    Bearish Case 2: We are starting wave iii down. Looks very good as soon as we break 1039 (1034.5 ES).

    Given we are currently at 1039 ES, I am long with stop at 1034 ES, and will switch to short if ES runs my stop.

    If the bullish case plays out, happy days with +40 to +80. If bearish case 1 plays out, then I have moved my stop to 1045 after the initial rise, and make +6. If bearish case 2 plays out, I'm down five handles which I can make back quickly enough on the move down.

    Good luck next week everyone, should be interesting.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Not sure if we'll get to the 1100 mark, but the COTS trader blog is showing that commercial traders are getting much more bearish. I'm going to tread VERY lightly in the upcoming week and probably leg into a some strangles.

    Right now I'm long IWM but I will not hesitate to stop out if we break Friday's lows.

  • reddragonleo

    It's always the scariest at the top!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    dollar is red also the disconnect may have finally arrived.

  • springheel_jack

    Night all, see you on the other side.

  • reddragonleo

    Night jack… I'm a couple hours behind you. It's been a busy weekend.

  • bergs

    Good evening all.

    Going to go out on a limb here with this chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/oAexcdbqcED

    If you haven't you should zip on over to Alphhorn's site( http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ ) if EW tickles your fancy. He goes into his tips on how he counts his waves if you scroll down the page,

  • springheel_jack

    Lots of those lately my friend. Roll on P3 please! :-)

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    not sure about this mkt action in Asia, Anna. Yen is ripping higher, everything else is in stasis. oh, GBP is tanking – but then, it is a third world currency. Topix is having a tough time. I say not good for spooz.

  • blues

    Ya, I wouldn't get too excited until they break either the 1049 (up) or break down 1037(down)… anything in between just chop chop making hamburger…

  • blues

    At this point, my “previous” gut play tells me that when this thing start to fall, it will be like the rise from 666 where it won't stop… But now I rather have it a good bounce to work off the short term oversold condition and we go down again… but who knows…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    What the heck happened to Natural Gas last Friday….

    http://screencast.com/t/lTBD7f1dOeQH

  • reddragonleo

    I don't think Anna likes hamburger Blues?

  • BigIslandLife

    Contract roll over to next month on monday afternoon they started quoting it on Friday

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    let me do a quick refresher for ecstatic prematurely aged therefore salivating bears :)
    http://screencast.com/t/qZPaYqUHf

  • jd60

    Keirsten and Anna,

    Thanks for all your work this week. You've supported mole and the rest of us well.
    I'm hoping for one more spike to load up on more puts.

  • Nightwind

    I think this tune is pretty much where we are at
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ynyysA9HB8&feat

  • Nightwind

    JD is absolutely right. You girls were awesome.

  • dollar

    Nikkei not looking very good at all, well under the 50 ma

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /es 1028
    /6e 1.46

  • grednfer

    Yeah…USD tested a right support shelf…..puttin in some kind of bottom here.
    David, little more info would help……are those buy points?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Wind, and JD, thanks I wouldn't mind one more quickie spike and a chance to load up on some juicy puts too! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am a patient bear! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Looks like things may be a changing Return! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Dollar SWEEET!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I was also thinking that, this maybe our 4 Wave to ride. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    possible overnight lows

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dollar! :) been practicing all weekend and pretty much got the begging down pat. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Great tune, great musical groupl One of my favs! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Bergs, I like it and can ride that channel with you! :)

  • PRSGuitars

    WARNING AGAIN — perfect spot for a bounce. /es at least.

    At monthly /es VWAP + downtrending lower TL from past few days.
    Also 20 day SMA. Right at it now. Beware shorts, possible easy bounce play for a few points at least.

    http://screencast.com/t/6wXV7T9hdj

  • flyboy08

    Hi Evilites. I've been spending the last two days nursing a bad back on the floor:-( and just checked int o read what I've missed. Thanks to all who posted thoughts and charts for the upcoming week! You guys don't realize how helpful you are to peeps like myself!

    A big thank you to all!

  • PRSGuitars

    Aaaaand the bearish case, somewhat, in case we play nice in the channel for a while…

    http://screencast.com/t/MwV48L6uj6j

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    EU /es bounce now

  • Nightwind

    Thanks….will we be under the bridge or over? Goodnight

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Thanks, how is Big Island? Just bought some 100% Kona….Full disclosure—fully amped up. Short Silver– Long Kona

  • Nightwind

    If it bounces, then cancel my island plans…

  • thunda72

    Right now, after the open, the Nikkei is down 2.25% (230 pts.) and SP/ASX is down over 1 percent. yee haw!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    So you are looking for an expanding diagonal to finish wave 1 down?

    Skål!

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Anna,
    This dollar is going up. wait till the end of the month. That will be the end of the JPY rally too. GBP – god only knows. pretty soon, tasting menu for two at Restaurant Gordon Ramsay will be, you know, 45 dollars.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I meant a very small pre clinical death scalping bounce :)

  • Nightwind

    lol….as in nanobounce.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /6e target 1.4600 hit and exceeded
    /es – if it will not take out 1036.25 – it might completely reverse now
    http://screencast.com/t/1nzs6fhKO

  • bergs

    Yes. That is my road map. We should find out pretty quick in the AM if I have the correct count.

  • jacksoo

    US$ showing strength though David – wld suggest further down move.

  • Nightwind

    Possible falling wedge

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Fair enough… Yeah, we should pretty much know by the open IMO, considering the futures action thus far.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Fair enough… Yeah, we should pretty much know by the open IMO, considering the futures action thus far.

    Skål!

  • grednfer

    That was a great sunday night short…….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    very clean one
    still might be if 1036 broken, but I highly doubt it now

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    On the Eur/Usd 60 minute chart it appears a head and shoulders top has completed. Wowsa!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $ES_F target raised to 1029

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /6e done going down for now
    http://screencast.com/t/zOstuCjvP7Rk

  • grednfer

    Pretty vertical move for the Dollar……..must be lots of shorts in there.

  • grednfer

    Pretty vertical move for the Dollar……..must be lots of shorts in there.

  • moneyfarm

    “In the real world, stupid people frustrate you. In the markets, stupid people just give you their money. I’d sure as hell rather have the latter!!”
    Love that – pasting that one into my trading journal.
    Thanks

  • jacksoo

    1035.75 took out some stops i guess –

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    there was like 1 contrct traded at 1035.75
    1036 held up for now
    going into abc here

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Please. Sometimes the truth is better than fiction… 😛

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    I see a pretty clear 5 wave move down on the NQ 60min……and seems to be bouncing at previous 9/15 consolidation……should get ABC up now. COmments?

  • jacksoo

    how does that measure David – A to retrace certain %?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • dollar

    yeah, and how 'bout that dollar? Thing of beauty tonight, hope it holds…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    in d-wave for A there is no set % retrace, only bar count

  • grednfer

    Dollar is looking strong….until the next auction….
    6e is a monster, I think 6 contracts is like a million Euros?

  • jacksoo

    thx for reply david – also having probs with discuss – bloody nightmare since they added features a few weeks back.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “added”?
    I cannot find “link” to post as well as have no clue who is following me now (not that is it important, but when after upgrade you get less – stinks big time)

  • blues

    Cool, just got back from dinner, and DXY is above 77! Now we just need to stay above 77.1 and keep on going up to 77.5 and then back test and stay above 77.1… that would be super for DXY!

  • jacksoo

    I know – new system stinks – impossible to follow trail of comments,/.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup and I just tried 3 times to change my profile picture. Apparently Disgust really like Terrapin's Imperial Red Ale too….

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    long a few NQ contracts……..see if I can catch a a scalp here

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good night all and let's hope the futs down are a sign of good things to come! :)

  • blues

    Good night! Let's hope DXY keep going up and up!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Oh yea baby! LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    G/L Tron :)

  • Tronacate

    Hopefully we get a nice drawn out bull flag on the dollar after that big impulse up……..somehow I don't see Asia going down further than it is already.

  • Tronacate

    Thanks

  • Tronacate

    I keep having to reload to post unless it's a reply….what a clinky system

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    tyrone biggums checking in

  • Tronacate

    NQ at night is like watching paint dry………keep forgettting the snails pace of pre-3amish trading……..self-flagellation

  • dollar

    Hang Seng down 1%

  • nummy

    hoping /DX holds overnight and closes above red channel … this could be a very profitable week for us bears :)
    http://www.screencast.com/t/rCDTUeQI

  • dollar

    Sign of the bottom in the dollar: The dollar is dead – long live the renminbi
    Whatever happens at the G20, the days of Western dominance are at an end, says Jeremy Warner.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jere

  • PRSGuitars

    /6e = synthetic 12 lots of FX
    /e7 = synthetic 6 lots of FX (sucks though, mega-illiquid)

  • Trader_Steve

    I'm only 30% short and find myself wanting them to try and goose it, fail, aand realize the jog is up!

    G'nite,
    Steve

  • 4everGrateful

    Hope everyone had a great weekend!
    I was speaking with a friend who is an engineer over at Citi (in the credit card dept.) and he has been putting in major hours lately. I asked him what was going on and he said that C is currently profiling all of it's current customers and determining who to keep and who to cut off in the wake of the govt brainchild of credit card reform. In a nutshell, C is preparing to tighten their credit standards and go back to the old days of credit. You have to actually prove you can afford to pay back the credit! What a concept!
    Anyway, as he was speaking, all I could think about was “credit bubble” part II? This would go along with the first round of commercial paper default and the next round of option arms coming due.
    The first bubble was pretty scary, but deep down, I think this next wave is going to be much worse. Think of all the people who will lose access to that easy to get plastic that is no longer there for them.
    I still see the DOW easily testing the March lows and a high probability that we break through leading to a two year slow bleed sell off before bottoming out.
    The “typical” American consumer is going to get blind sided, once again in large part due to our Govt who is so interested in “protecting” us.
    I will continue to hold my shorts. From here on out, I will be buying June 2010 once the rip to 10,000 occurs.

  • Trader_Steve

    I have a program called Quickeys that, of many functions, allows one to record maacros. I've had it with Discus and looging in so I just recorded the login process and hotkeyed it.

    Just a though for those who might have the ability to automate login.

    Steve

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks for that info. Even if the “2nd credit bubble” is only as bad as the first, the point from which we start this time will be far worse. (i.e. unemployment, GDP, etc.) If things are gonna get ugly from HERE, it will be a big shock for a lot of folks.

    Gotta love the govt and their “do as I say, not as I do” policies…

    Skål!

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    if the chit hit the fan the 1st time from 14000 to 6400
    this time it will hit the fan from 10,000 and take us to …3600 or so

  • bshah

    Good eve fellas,
    How interesting Anna….? You are quite knowledeable in world history, or you have some indian friends… Vijaya Dasami is also called “Dashera” just fyi… Don't know much on astrological/vedic influence, but hopefully it works in the directions all of us want..
    G/L to all..

  • Tronacate

    Dollar is dead=world economy is dead……..the world revolves our consumption…….don't let anybody try to say otherwise…….no one can pick up the slack but the US. If we don't pick it up…..the rest is all background noise.

  • Tronacate

    I see where A123 has a huge patent infrigement suit with Texas university system……might be a good short play……sounds like they are infringing……

    In a Sept. 22 regulatory filing, A123 said it could be forced to pay “substantial damages” if the case isn’t resolved in its favor. “In addition, an adverse ruling could cause us, and our customers, development partners and licensees, to stop, modify or delay activities in the United States such as research, development, manufacturing and sales of products based on technologies covered by these patents,” A123 said in the filing.

  • Tronacate

    In fact I'm surprised a public offering with that in the works isn't fraud.

  • Offtimer

    Anna thanks for keeping us focused and controling the markets in our favor.

  • the99th

    I've got a bad feeling about this R2.

  • Tronacate

    Elaborate

  • neophyte

    Evening folks, some charts across diff frames on Eur/USD. Appears we have broken through the 38% fib. Next stop 50% at 1.452?? Looks doable but then….. Enjoy the rest of the evening.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/neophyte/folder

  • Tronacate

    2 points on my NQ scalp…….whoopee…..better than a kick in the nutz

  • grednfer

    I know those e7 guys will jack with you too……I use it when I want to hedge up and not drop the trade.

    How much margin is consumed by 12 lots of FX on the EURO/USD? I've never even done FX, but I love 6E…….I'm gonna really love it when this thing gets going.

  • Tronacate

    Everything paints a similar blowoff looking top……..is it for real is the big question.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Gotta love it.

    Skål!

  • dollar

    Dollar going up to new highs?

  • Tronacate

    Watching BIDU……..already short FSLR from a while ago……

  • Tronacate

    Think BIDU truncates……or we go up……IRAN firing missles…..world tension might keep another push at bay……oil might reverse course real quick with an increase in sabre rattling.

  • grednfer

    I'm looking for it to follow the RIMM chart!

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    Kenan Perry to me
    show details 10:43 PM (5 minutes ago)
    fuk the bubbles the gov let, happen the gov needs to tighten everything up like it use to be when things were good like in the 80's and make interest rates on home loans 25% again and cars and everything else no less than 10% with badass credit. People will relearn to work hard and save MONEY and not to LIVE ABOVE THERE MEANS. i feel no remorse or have any sympathy for any of these fagots that use plastic fuk em thats what they get for being wrapped up in all the hype that things are great and just because u dont need money down or there is o% interest for x amount of time they should buy it. YOU can tell em RYAN K PERRY SAID THAT vote for me motherfuckers lets straighten this shit out!!!!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Aside from those world events, do you have any technical reasons why it would truncate? Though asking for a peak around 440 is HARDLY a drastic new high. Not from the P3 peaks per my counts.

    Wave equality for I1 and I5 (per the extended 3rd EW suggests) (in %'s per Prechter's preference {and my own preference on moves that “distort” typical price projections}) would be 436. P3 peak was 429. Fib projections using Thursday's low suggest a high as low at 417 or up to 443 and beyond.

    Thanks mate, always love your analysis…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    My bad that was supposed to go to Tronacate…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Aside from those world events, do you have any technical reasons why it would truncate? Though asking for a peak around 440 is HARDLY a drastic new high. Not from the P3 peaks per my counts.

    Wave equality for I1 and I5 (per the extended 3rd EW suggests) (in %'s per Prechter's preference {and my own preference on moves that “distort” typical price projections}) would be 436. P3 peak was 429. Fib projections using Thursday's low suggest a high as low at 417 or up to 443 and beyond.

    Thanks mate, always love your analysis…

    Skål!

  • LogansRun

    Like a lot of people here, I've been salivating over the stupendous short opportunity that is upon us. However, I am uncertain of whether getting what we wish for (going back March 650 lows) will ultimately be that beneficial unless I trade it perfectly every step down. If I'm not careful, the net net results on my total account value might not be looking so hot.

    Personally, I have a lot of my retirement money tied up in accounts that are “long” only funds. I venture to say that most other Americans do as well. What are other traders here doing to manage their IRAs? Should I be moving funds to cash or short bias funds? If we go back to 600 range my retirement accounts won't be locking so hot. What are some of the approaches others are using to protect money outside their trading account? Any insights on how to prepare for financial Armageddon would be appreciated!

  • Tronacate

    Long SKF…….lol

  • PeterK80

    I'm watching 2 numbers… 1035 and 1053. Depending on which breaks, might tell us whether we are in P3 or not… we're getting awfully close to that 1035 though.

    http://screencast.com/t/JmItNWFXu

  • Tronacate

    True……I agree with you technically……just things are a might wierd in the global outlook. Sentiment could turn on a dime if Israel decided to terminate the Iran project. My analysis is very seat of the pants…..but thanks for the encouragement.

  • AS2009

    Doula – McHugh report ?

  • bshah

    That's a very interesting question and I was wondering that myself.. I have 401k right now, and due to that long down wave, even with the recovery from March till now, I am still -5% on my 401k. So, I was thinking of the same, that shall I bail out and go all cash… Since few of my friends did that in early 2008. Well, I suggest, may be you should ask this question again tomorrow morning to get more feedback from other ESers..

  • Tronacate

    A couple things here……Inverse dragon pattern on 10 and 60 min…..big phat H&S on both also…….we ahould have shorted the shit on the break through 1070ish…….

  • rhae

    Great cheat chart, which I added to my growing DeMark ref. materials… It's all in the book but a glance at your chart makes it very understandable
    Now, I am looking for the right timeframe for the SPY to make a high odds bounce. So I just go to each timeframe and count down closes… Looking for a 13 count… looks like 30m missed it.
    Daily to slow and will not pick up a clean bounce count, imo. Note: I have H.A. sticks turned on, they are worthless reading TD swing points / TD trendlines..

    60m looks about right, Of course it is not confirming and if it continues to slide. Then I will move to a different timeframe.
    There might be something to being in the correct timeframe with DeMark when looking for high odds moves… and keeping watch in Daily and Weekly for the General Trend… opinions always welcome….
    SPY 60m on high alert watch… http://screencast.com/t/tWGPIC6RCEZ5

    annamall, dmi kool, and with adx some slick little hints…

  • LogansRun

    Thanks. Yes, please keep this conversation going. I think the main point is that most investors and even traders are “Net Long” when they are trading the market up. However, I wouldn't say the reverse is true for most. That leaves us with the question of how we manage all of our accounts to profit from world's economic suffering. I know it sounds bad, but that's reality of what shorting the market aims for right?

  • Tronacate

    If it gets real bad……..even the shorts won't get paid…….and money won't matter anyways…..or gold……..food, water and guns will be what you want

  • LogansRun

    True, “food, water, and guns” might be the long term trade of the day on CNBC if the markets fall back to under 600 and 4000. Presumably, our double digit unemployment would be about 25-30% at that point. We would all be “rich” and out friends and neighbors would be jobless and starving… I know that my parents accounts would be blown to hell. How are other here advising their parents to position for the market meltdown?

  • Scrillhog

    Away from a computer where I can go through or post many charts, but I have been crunching a lot of numbers. Here's something interesting:

    666.79 x 1.618 = 1079~

  • molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Off, :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey Off, :)