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Inflicting Maximum Pain
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Inflicting Maximum Pain

by The MoleJanuary 21, 2015

So I found myself staring at the E-Mini charts for quite a while this morning. Usually I am pretty snappy when it comes to sorting through the dos and duds of the day – on average I spent in between 2 to 5 seconds on a particular chart. If it doesn’t speak to me right away – meaning if my brain doesn’t pick up sufficient context within that time frame I simply discard it and move on. It’s a daily procedure that has served me pretty well over the years.

mma

My approach is not accidental, in fact I consciously do not want to spend too much time looking at a particular chart, for I am keenly aware of the fact that the human brain has a tendency to see what it wants to see. But sometimes there are those days when I just get stuck staring – because I’m seeing something but simply can’t figure out what exactly I am seeing. I’m sure you’ve all been there – you run into this formation that just looks so juicy, ripe for the picking. But deep down inside you know that it’s just too good to be true.

2015-01-21_spoos_briefing

Back in my old wave wanking days I would have labeled the current formation a 1-2 pattern followed by a third wave lower but allowing for the possibility of a simple zig-zag correction. You know – Soylent Green and Red and such. However since then I’ve learned that any chart I post here is completely useless unless it is ACTIONABLE or at least suggests that action should NOT be taken at the current time. In other words – tell me something I can use to place a trade in the near future – or at least tell me that it’s time to wait. Otherwise tell me nothing.

2015-01-21_events

If you’re a sub and caught up with yesterday’s afternoon update then you’ve got a pretty good idea of where I think we are heading on the equities side. And today’s morning tape only serves to drive this point home: We are clearly in a limbo period which will most likely be resolved quickly and violently before the week is over, early next week at the latest. In the meantime the modus operandi is to draw in as many directional players as possible and to inflict the maximum amount of pain.

Given Draghi’s big day in the sun tomorrow my expectation is that the current sideways churn between 2000 and 2025 will continue. Some say the ECB’s QE plans are already priced in but people say a lot of things and a vast majority winds up to being useless for trading purposes. What I do know right now is that my NQ short campaign has magically survived the recent hike higher by a few ticks – it’s possible it’ll survive until tomorrow but frankly I think the odds of that are pretty low.

What I do believe will happen is another rip higher to stop out any remaining shorts. Why? Because there is little reason for resolution today and the conditions here are perfect for punishment. If by any chance the ES breaches 2060 then the bulls may get the chance to close January in positive territory. But given what I have presented yesterday there’s a pretty solid chance we fall hard before there, at minimum retesting the recent lows and probably continuing lower. This market is standing on very wobbly legs right now and the conditions are ripe for a major correction. This view would be revised if we breach 2060.

2015-01-21_zero

What that means for you right now is to do nothing. If you are a Thor sub and are still in the NQ campaign then don’t touch it – our stop is at break/even and given the current tape we are perfectly positioned. You can perhaps grab a ST long position near the 100-hour SMA on the E-Mini (i.e. near 2000) – this may be a good play today with a stop below the 2k mark. But I caution you from getting caught in the swings -just look at the Zero signal yesterday, there was barely any participation. Which means perfect conditions for tape banging and running of clusters of stops.

For what it’s worth: I’m keenly aware of this moment in time and the opportunity that may be at hand. Evil Speculator was founded in the midst of a financial crisis in August of 2008. Back then much of my initial reputation was earned by posting then rather unpopular bearish charts on the Slope and then here, which in the end turned out to come true. In retrospect much of that reputation was earned through pure luck and I spent the following six years earning it through hard work and questioning everything I thought I knew. So be assured that I don’t take making this call lightly. Suggesting major turning points is always tantamount to a rope walk, especially during limbo periods like these. You know that you’re sailing in dangerous waters but at the same time you also know big moves are coming and your motivation is to keep your readers from drowning at minimum and help them bank coin if somehow possible.

Bottom Line: 2060 is the bear’s line in the sand – above it the current attempt to correct will go up in smoke. Anything below 2060 and above 2000 should be considered limbo tape and I don’t recommend you pick sides. If you can get positioned short near (and below) the 2060 mark then you have decent odds opportunity for a rather substantial pay-off. However above 2060 the bulls again run the tape and we are most likely seeing new highs in the coming weeks. Below 2000 the bears run the tape again and below 1960 we are looking at least at a medium term correction. So that’s my Soylent Green/Red verdict with hopefully a bit more actionable context.

Let me be clear – grabbing longs or shorts in between 2020 and 2050 will most likely lead you to getting shaken out today/tomorrow unless you get very lucky.

2015-01-21_wheat_briefing

The only short term setup I like this morning is wheat. Looking like it wants to finally paint a floor and I would be long above the Net-Line Buy Level at 543.5. My stop would be below 539 – I’ll only deploy 1/2R here as it’s an early formation without re-tests or major context.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • evilasevildoes

    thx mole I still use advance get but o do love the math lines in 1/8ths over lay with usdjpy

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry mate – can you explain a bit more what you’re saying?

  • AcoBrasil

    Any predictions on the Aldo-McGregor fight in May 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Point taken but I do make assessments based on technical evidence. A prediction would be to say that the SPX will be at X by a particular day.

  • MK Ultra

    That’s a picture of Mole and Scott fighting it out when Scott went to visit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We actually did some ground work but there was more bruising than blood flowing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fucker punches like a hammer though…

  • AcoBrasil

    Sorry Mole. I wasn’t trying to make a point about your post. Just a little off topic banter.

  • MK Ultra

    lol, I don’t doubt that 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, i actually realized that afterward – sorry, busy morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I had a bruise on my arm for one month after he left. Fun to be challenged though – the people I teach over the weekend aren’t used to get hit and I’m trying to toughen them up a little. When i trained with Martin Wheeler I was constantly covered in bruises – his crew trains for real and it’s something I appreciate.

  • Ronebadger

    What did I just miss?

  • Skynard

    Wow, WTF?

  • BobbyLow

    Invisible Hand? 🙂

  • Skynard

    /CL getting groove back on:)

  • AcoBrasil

    NFLX?

  • Ronebadger

    I have to tune into Netflix to find out?

  • BobbyLow

    Been a Bumpy Ride but I’m still holding on.

  • Ronebadger

    Sell da rip!

  • Skynard

    Need to learn to buy the retest and be patient. Still looks like a good trade.

  • BobbyLow

    Patience is my middle name. This is not designed as a short term trade for me. I expected a bumpy ride and that’s what I’m getting.

    I think you like to buy support and sell resistance and that’s cool. I prefer to buy after the move is in play and sell after the move is ended.

    It’s the middle part I want. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    Rumor driven algofart

  • Bankroft Papshoda

    Long time sub, 1st time poster. How’s that Bean Oil? Is grease still a buy, just a slip sliding stops shaking or has it failed? I’m buying lumber right here on a seasonal cycle low idea. Gonna start paying close attention so’s I can live La Vida Loca as well. Regards, Monsieur Mole!

  • Darkthirty

    Data feed problems …..Just mine?

  • mugabe

    WTF with the loony?

  • Skynard

    Wow, stopped out of CAD Big FN move

  • Darkthirty

    Canada rate cut

  • vladv

    rate cut

  • mugabe

    bastards:) looks like people are still paying attention to central banks.

  • Skynard

    Back on .8115

  • BobbyLow

    Bank of Canada (Monetary policy Bullshit)
    http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

    I stopped trading the CAD about 14 weeks ago. They have too many fucking announcements and on most announcements the movements are worse than Our Fed Days.

  • mugabe

    now you tell me:)

  • Billabong

    Can you dig DIG…

  • Skynard

    Lol, ridding her back up. Could be last dump before it actually does something:)

  • ridingwaves

    currency wars are going to make being on the right side even more important…..it’s going to get wild….

  • BobbyLow

    Seriously though this is why I cut my stable down to only two different pair. I got sick and tired of having to tip toe around every country’s Central Banker. Now I only am concerned with the AUD and the USD. The USD is only 1 or 2 days per month and I usually can hold through AUD announcements because my stop is usually large enough.

    But speaking of the CAD, it goes fricken nuts and the last time it did, I said “no mas”.

  • mugabe

    also means keeping any eye on your base/home currency, though not a problem at the moment if you’re in USD

  • mugabe

    fair enough. My position is monthly portfolio one- not day trading. even so, surprised to see such a big move.

  • MK Ultra

    patience is an art…………….that’s where mechanical systems help.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes we can! 🙂

  • Skynard

    Think that the dollar is due for a longer term correction now. 92.50 is key at the momment while crude oil rallies.

  • ridingwaves

    the dollar might be heading to it’s final peak, speculation of course…as the euro falls apart the euro-dollar cartel could be toast….

  • Skynard

    BOC up again @ 1115

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of Currency, I don’t even want to try to figure out why the AUD/USD dropped 77 Pips in the last 90 Minutes. Might have had something to do with the DX basket but I don’t think the AUD has that big a percentage of the DX.

    Fortunately my AUD/USD chart did not look very appetizing this AM so I have no position in it. But there is some jittery stuff going on. I put on a short GBP/JPY this morning and it’s been all over the place as well.

  • BobbyLow

    EDIT : I also have the GBP/JPY in my stable and I don’t do anything about JPY or GBP announcements. I just let them do their thing.

  • BobbyLow

    This is what I mean Sky. This thing goes crazy and then comes back. But IMO, you need a massive and unreasonable stop (on a short term trade) to keep from being whacked.

  • Skynard

    Tried another long @ .8115, that was a massive move. Playing a reversion now:)

  • Billabong

    Anything to do with the leaked EU QE at 50B Euros per month?

  • BobbyLow

    Who knows? I purposely avoid the “news” because by the time I get it, it’s too late. Then if I try to figure out the “real” reason why something might have happened, that doesn’t help me make any money either. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Heheheheee!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How are you guys holding up?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Heheee – Thor was short CAD/JPY 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was actually waiting for a long trigger on ZKL courtesy of Thor – didn’t happen. So right now I wouldn’t be able to suggest a proper entry. Quite possible that it’ll touch that lower BB now near 32 – given that the formation was pointing upward and the opposite happened.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – I guess everyone took my advise! 🙂

  • Ronebadger

    I got antibiotics yesterday, I’m a little better today…thanks for asking (not the flu)

  • Skidmarkalot

    Watching paint dry here in Kansas.

  • Bankroft Papshoda

    Much gratitude for getting back at me. Ya, I like your logic, “given that the formation was pointing up and the opposite happened” Thank you. And though I’m showing profit on the load of 2 by 4’s (lumber) bought this morning, would you grant a smidgeon of your perspicacious perception and take a gander at the lumber chart through Mole’s eyes, please. I think this could be a significant bottom with many aspects lining up for aggresive home building and remodeling, i.e., cheap energy and low interest rates. Again, thanks for all the shared intensity, it is positively contagious!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I wouldn’t be worried – weed is tough to kill 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    For now the USD is the best looking horse in the glue factory

  • Scott Phillips

    What do you see bearish in this chart? All I see is a strong and powerful trend

  • Ronebadger

    Back to Morning Pop…Afternoon Drop that we’ve been “used” to seeing lately? (I hope)

  • Scott Phillips

    I see no edge either way right now. It’s in a trading range, coin flip.

  • Scott Phillips

    Lumber is in the middle of a powerful downtrend, which is a little overdone. This is a market for selling rallies to resistance, NOT for trying to pick a bottom. Today’s one day powerful rally is not sufficient evidence that a bottom is in to pick a floor

  • Scott Phillips

    HA! Mole does this thing in his style where they hit each other a lot. My kung fu style has a lot of heavy contact as well, so I’m not particularly bothered about being smacked around. I might have neglected to mention that I have fists that hit like sledgehammers before Mole invited me to crack him one 😉

  • mugabe

    or gold

  • Scott Phillips

    He’s a mouthy little bitch. He has had a very carefully groomed run through the ranks, has not encountered any serious contender opposition yet.

    Jose Aldo is close to the best in the world pound for pound. Technically he’s a way better striker and grappler than Jon Jones, and very close to Anderson Silver in miniature. His grappling coach, Babu, is coming out to stay here and teach in our gym for a while this year.

    Aldo will tear him to pieces.

  • Scott Phillips

    most def

  • mugabe

    loony roaring back now. go boy!

  • Skynard

    Inverted hammer, just looking for a counter trend to begin. It has fucked around at long term resistance and is over due. Will attempt to get long after it corrects though:)

    Commods have started to rally now

  • Skynard

    Nice move, damn!

  • Skynard

    Looking slippery

  • Scott Phillips

    I see a hammer not an inverted hammer

  • Skynard

    5 min div, attemping a short here. Stop SPX 2040

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Billabong

    Hedge fund manager Owen LI, started with $200M last March and has $200K left. He apologized to share holders for being too zealous in the last quarter. I’m sure he took a paycheck through the year….

    This should never happen with proper risk controls in place. Maybe he needs some RBT training here at EvilSpec.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-21/hedge-fund-manager-loses-998-9-months-tells-investors-he-sorry-overzealousness

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve met quite a few hedge fund and prop desk guys through Van Tharp’s stuff, and by and large they are no different to retail traders but more skilled in the mechanics of trading, and even more susceptible to crowdthink and bias. Most of them think they are extremely good traders, and coming from prestigious colleges and universities, wearing sharp suits, and hanging around masters of the universe doing coke, they get that worldview reinforced regularly. One very good trader I know at a big bank would never take a position against their office superstar trader, despite his rules telling him to.

    The problem comes from how their renumeration is calculated, they get a share of the profits but not any of the losses. The logical thing to do in their position is to roll the dice, again and again.

  • MK Ultra

    yeah, they can’t seem to get much of an EOD ramp………..

  • Darkthirty

    Got the short signal but not the confirmation yet……………

  • MK Ultra

    confirmation is for Catholics

  • Darkthirty

    so is guilt…..

  • MK Ultra

    nice 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    what a travesty for the share holders and little folk whom believed…..debtpushers are much worse than drugpushers….they might not cut your head off and leave it on the side of the road but they do cut your financial head off and turn around and ask for more…

  • Darkthirty

    Guilty of losing $ if I don’t wait for confirmation

  • Billabong

    This goes back to the discussion you had yesterday with RUFC on risk. After reading that discussion, I went back and recalculated my trades to make sure of my numbers against risk exposure. I think your msg above is important to the folks because it tells it as it is… From the fund managers and analysts I’ve met that live around me, they are no smarter or more informed than I am. I will say, they are way more intense than me and could do with a little Elder, Douglas and Van Tharp spiritual training to tone it down.

  • MK Ultra

    ah, I see.

  • Darkthirty

    If I had to pick a religion it would be Catholicism. Al Capone was a good catholic!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    GREAT – after all my bearish doom & gloom talk today Thor is pining for an NQ long entry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Bankroft Papshoda

    danke schoen, dude!

  • Scott Phillips

    The fundamental traders in that group tend to be of a higher standard though.

  • Scott Phillips

    Welcome 🙂

  • mugabe

    need to be in communion with the market .. or it’ll give you the last rites

  • mugabe

    I only know that I know nothing

  • strider

    I cheated on a system a long time back. The worst thing about it was that I was right. It opened the door to do it again.

  • Billabong

    Yes. Fundamental trading requires multiple levels of understanding. Sort of like a multidimensional chess game.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Strider … and any other open souls … something I researched, hypothesised, validated and published last century … still is valid today … may we all learn from the past !

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Scott – knowledge / truth / reality is always based on one’s experiential database … based on mine, virtually all OPM (Other People’s Money) traders are more concerned with … and paid on … the basis of ‘relative’ performance … as opposed to absolute performance.

    This is not dis-similar to trading account personal … yet the carrot stick is massively different!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ greenlander1

    Any of you guys trade VXX/ XIV?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ greenlander1

    Great post about 2-5 secs on charts. Good way to keep your thinking cleaner.

  • Scott Phillips

    and for some a better fit than charts

  • Scott Phillips

    As a general rule the classic mistake is to wait for confirmation.

    At the start of a move you might have a 40% chance of 2R or more. If you wait a little bit you might be 55% chance of 1R, which is not as good a deal risk reward wise. The problem with waiting for confirmation is that it “feels like” the odds are increasing dramatically, but in reality they are only increasing a little bit. Nothing really gets much better than 60:40

  • Scott Phillips

    I’d also urge you to NOT look at fundamentals before technicals. What happens is invariably we form a view, then interpret the charts to see what we already think. Look at the charts first, then confirm with fundamentals if that is your game. If it’s not your game ignore altogether

  • Darkthirty

    ok

  • Skynard

    Opps, dragon fly but at a high. It is in interesting.

  • mugabe

    Talking about the randomness of outcomes, Tom Basso did a study that showed that taking positions completely at random is profitable over time with appropriate risk controls. Think his initial stops were ATR based.

    It’s also interesting that when he ran his trend following fund, he deliberately set the parameters at a sub-optimal level as regards the equity curve in order to reduce the volatility of the fund and so get less grief from clients. He made the system fit the clients’ psychology.

  • Billabong

    Love it! Out of the box thinking; “…percentage of a movement they captured.” What motivation to find and capture a trend.

  • Billabong

    Love it! Out of the box thinking; “…percentage of a movement they captured.” What motivation to find and capture a trend.

  • Billabong

    Doesn’t the msg go back to belief system and biases? There are many philosophical quotes used to address exactly what your chart is showing. Most of the quotes address a longer time frame telling the reader to learn from the past and not repeat the same old mistakes. In the “old days”, they used nursery rhymes to tell the story.

    Is there is an internal conflict caused by cognitive dissonance? The comfortable way verses a different approach. The realigning of a belief system, the throwing out of biases. Cognitive dissonance is the mental stress or discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time, or is confronted by new information that conflicts with existing beliefs, ideas, or values. If someone is striving for internal consistency, when inconsistency is experienced, individuals tend to become psychologically uncomfortable and they are motivated to attempt to reduce this dissonance, as well as actively avoiding situations and information which are likely to increase it.

    IMO, this is why psychology is the most important part of not only trading but also day to day living. Fully understanding someone else’s reality is important to reduce conflict resulting from different ideas on the subject matter at hand. It’s also important in trying to understand what the motivation is for the person on the other side of a market position.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Mugabe … and the exit was based on ?

  • mugabe

    can’t remember!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – They still use the concept of ‘nursery rhymes’ today to induce thoughts … nada has changed.

    Psychology of self is the main factor in risk taking from my side … the understanding / interpretation / assumption of the psychology of others is the main factor in searching for and creating valid setups.

    My L.I.V.E. approach to the markets is equally applicable to life … Look > Investigate > Verify > Execute.

  • mugabe

    ‘… the understanding / interpretation / assumption of the psychology
    of others is the main factor in searching for and creating valid
    setups. ‘

    Sometime piggybacking on their psychology and sometimes using their psychology against them?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Bear in mind (intentional pun) we have lived in the greatest bull market … way beyond living memory … in most things … few are aware that there was a 400 year phase when real estate went sideways to down … let alone stocks for 20 years in the same holding pattern.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Mis-matching of timeframes and motivations create many / most of the opportunities provided by markets.

  • mugabe

    so have you created most of your systems by comparing time frames?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Mugabe … as well as using ‘non-standard’ timeframes … and ‘non-standard start / end times … I have been accused many times of ‘thinking outside the box’ … my reaction is that to think outside the box acknowledges that there is a box in the first place.

    My ‘systems’ all stem from pure price data that is created by the collective of market players … perhaps the (main) reason for the concepts still performing … I started this road way back in the 1980’s.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Mugabe … as well as using ‘non-standard’ timeframes … and ‘non-standard start / end times … I have been accused many times of ‘thinking outside the box’ … my reaction is that to think outside the box acknowledges that there is a box in the first place.

    My ‘systems’ all stem from pure price data that is created by the collective of market players … perhaps the (main) reason for the concepts still performing … I started this road way back in the 1980’s.

  • mugabe

    true … but things seems to move quicker now … exponential rate of progress, world becoming more global, etc.
    would seem to favour trends … all very philosophical/ speculative, of course

  • mugabe

    true … but things seems to move quicker now … exponential rate of progress, world becoming more global, etc.
    would seem to favour trends … all very philosophical/ speculative, of course

  • mugabe

    yes … by definition, I would have thought that thinking differently (and correctly!) must be the road to stellar profits

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – not to mention headaches / challenges … being the odd person in the ring … the whole world is flat … random walk is a reality etc.

    EDIT: Headaches / challenges for self / parents / teachers / partners.

  • mugabe

    of course, the hard bit is being right

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – ‘right’ is a bit like ‘truth’ in my view … subjective and prone to changing … what was ‘right’ before may not be ‘right’ given an expanded knowledge data base.

  • mugabe

    although it seems you’ve been using the same tools /set-ups for a long time, no? so they’re still right/valid ….

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – they still perform.

  • mugabe

    to be that robust, they must be very simple

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – the most complex things are ‘simple’ when internalised and understood.

  • mugabe

    yes, it’s all relative/view of the beholder!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – relative to the ‘beholder’ or practitioner?

  • mugabe

    I think you know what I mean. In one way, it’s a shame that your tools haven’t stopped working, which would have led you to explore further.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – quite the opposite perhaps … ‘success’ is not [necessarily] an impediment to exploration and growth.

  • mugabe

    yes .. thanks for the chat

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – a pleasure and never a chore … as a saying goes.

  • Billabong

    It’s the overcoming of the desire to be right all of the time…

  • Billabong

    They still perform because you built them to be timeless. Like the skilled surgeon, you spent years perfecting them and building in variants for the environment … adapting and overcoming … eventually returning to where it started. Folks shouldn’t estimate how much time, you and other great traders spent building complete systems that work.

  • Billabong

    Scott has referred many times to Ivan’s complex systems…

  • Billabong

    Adaptation to the environment is critical to survival …. I feel a Darwin moment coming on … LOL

  • Billabong

    APP @ 60B Euros per month … GC moved +$7

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh heaven no! There are many reasons to not trade ETNs like the VXX due to rebalancing or the futures for that matter.

    The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN is an exchange-traded note that is based on a hypothetical rolling 30-day VIX future and trades like a regular stock. However, it does not track VIX moves particularly well. In fact, it underperforms over time so long as VIX futures trade in an upwardly sloped term structure. And VIX futures virtually always trade that way.

    You can buy and sell VIX futures, but that is a very different thing. VIX futures can trade at premiums or discounts to the VIX. In fact, they almost always trade at premiums to the VIX. VIX futures cash out when they expire based on a VIX settlement price. So unless you roll out, your position will vanish.

    VIX futures price based on where the market expects to see the VIX on a given date in the future, i.e, the day the VIX expires. That estimate may or may not move on a given day with a move in the VIX. The further out in time the future is, the less it will track VIX moves.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mmmwwwuuuuaaahahahaaa!!

  • Skynard

    Did you see what just happened to the dollar? Much volitility:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – round trip.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    |???? ? |
    | !!!!!!!!!! |
    | €60bn |
    | !!!!!!!!!!!! |
    | ?????_|
    (__/) ||
    (•?•) ||
    / ? ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Believe you me. I’ll take your word for it.

  • Skynard

    Thiss one’s gana hurt me thinks. Put a Euro long on.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    All in all Euro hasn’t budged much – seems like it was mostly priced in.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know but this is from the “Forex Calender”.

    “The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts – first a
    prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press
    questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create
    heavy market volatility.”

    So if this is true, the second part can be dangerous. Or not. 🙂

    http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#detail=54651

  • mugabe

    or not …

  • Billabong

    Looked like /6E was heading towards the 1.14 area for about 10 sec (LOL). Digestion time.

    EDIT: The above was written 10 mins before … how things change.

  • Billabong

    Time to pack the family up and join the Swiss invading “cheap” Europe…

  • Skynard

    See how market open reacts, blow off all over the place

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, you know I’m not one to complain! 😉

  • Billabong

    This is a massive mistake … it’s obvious they’re buying time. They already know it doesn’t work (e.g. US and Japan).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey, how about we organize a big fiesta here in Spain when it reaches par?

  • mugabe

    if it does, I might have some money to pony up:)

  • mugabe

    must put draghi on my Christmas card list

  • BobbyLow
  • mugabe

    it’ll make record low rates even lower …

  • Billabong

    There goes GC 1302 / SI 18.38.

    EDIT: DX new HOD.

  • Ronebadger

    THAT’S when I show up in Europe

  • Billabong

    more negative … Swiss = -0.75%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    selling the news

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, there she goes, 50 crude today:)

  • BobbyLow

    Yep

  • BobbyLow

    I had a couple of things that I could have went with and something inside of me said beware of Central Banker Day.

  • BobbyLow

    That would be nice. 🙂

  • Skynard

    Lol, hate to say that I would like to pay more at the pump:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • BobbyLow

    Ya but what we could make on crude can buy a hell of a lot of gasoline.

  • Ronebadger
  • Darkthirty

    Stockcharts frozen?

  • mugabe

    the ECB strikes back

  • Skynard

    Wow, volitile trade today across the board!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    These aren’t the prices you’re looking for

    http://www.johngreathouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/obiwan.gif

  • Skynard

    See what the /CL bulls have left here, /NG bottom of the barrel right now.

  • Billabong

    Look at 6E … getting ready for 1.13 and DX …

  • Billabong

    Screw you … LOL. It hasn’t hit the R SL yet! Strengthening USD?????

  • Skynard

    Total wipe out by the looks of it.

  • Billabong

    I’ll tell you what’s moving, those PM miners. HL up 11% in two days … some are starting to look like its consolidation time as BB pulls away … AG / GG.

  • Skynard

    Tit for tat, if the dollar sells miners will explode

  • Billabong

    “Jim, she’s dead in the water” or put a fork in this bird she’s done. One note that’s lost in all the info. The frackers at distances to the terminals or rail heads, are currently getting $30-35 bl because of trucking transportation charges … you can also put a fork in the frackers working outside the close-in areas.

  • Billabong

    That’s why I run RBT with back-up R SLs.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m also using wider stops on both /CL and $DJUSEN (Still within guidelines of R of course)

  • wandering196

    Mole you at the ATM?

  • mugabe

    I just ran out of toilet paper … luckily I had a few 5 euro bills to hand.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s bout G*d dam time. BPGDM at 50!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ greenlander1

    How about shorting VXX/ long XIV/ selling option spreads on VXX? I never go long VXX for reasons you have mentioned

  • wandering196

    I’m using my Canadian dollars to wallpaper (except we only have loonie coins)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I wish – death in the family today, had to take care of a few things.

  • wandering196

    so sorry, trying to be funny at the wrong time, take care

  • mugabe

    far more productive use! the female perspective!

  • mugabe

    Draghi taking over the stockmarket heavy lifting from the Bernank-Yellen tandem .. crazy times

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ greenlander1

    How bout shorting VXX or selling call spreads?

  • mugabe

    how much do badgers pay to fly?

  • Ronebadger

    uhhhh, we swim…duh…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I would think 2066, another 6 pts.

    Big Move Thurs/Small move Fri.
    [S&P ’80’]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87670379248

  • mugabe

    longer term we’ve been in a trading range on spy for three months now.

  • Darkthirty

    Out and short

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    A sine wave gift.

  • DarthTrader

    Still holdin Still long

  • Darkthirty

    pickin up pennies!