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Inside Pay Day 3.0
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Inside Pay Day 3.0

by The MoleApril 25, 2012

Inside days are always fun and are slowly starting to become a favorite tradition here at Evil Speculator. Last night’s resolution in silver and the spoos put a rather smug and derisive smile on my face. And that’s how we roll here at the evil lair – please leave the punditry and opinions to the schmucks on the other side of our trades. We prefer to stick with wherever the tape takes us.

If you are a leech you got this one for free – please spend your ill-gotten gains with a skinhead of your choice. BTW, whoever gets this reference will instantly be promoted to über-stainless-steel-rat.

If you were a sub you also enjoyed silver’s fall off the proverbial plate. Bonds were a non-starter – sorry, I don’t make the tape, I just report it.

Here’s our hourly treasure map on the spoos. Still a bit room to run – I expect resistance near 1387. However, the daily and weekly charts are more interesting and I have a few more perspectives you may find interesting. Please step into what remains of my once evil L.A. lair:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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As you can see that 1387 mark on the hourly also represents the upper frontier of our current trading range. Plus there’s that 25-day SMA which looms as continuous resistance. I’m not saying we won’t push above it – what I am saying is that we probably will see acceleration above that point if we do.

And lo and behold – guess where we also find a weekly NLSL – exactly right at 1387. How do you like that? I guess you do like it very much and I would have to agree with you.

I would also watch that daily NLBL on the AUD/JPY – we are above it and once we get beyond 84.73 (the 25-day SMA) we should be good to go for a good ole’ fashioned short squeeze.

While we are on the currency side now for something completely different. The weekly DXY chart caught my attention as we are currently in the eye of the storm. You wouldn’t know it watching the daily chart but look – we are above the 100-week SMA, we are right below a NLBL, there’s that diagonal support. What happens here and now (I mean in the next week or two) will affect the ongoing trend for the remainder of the year. Keep an eye on this.

Crude has been boring as of late. Well, good – as all that coiled up frustration and pent up emotion will serve to bank some coin for the mighty Mole (too humble?). In all seriousness – this is a nice formation, especially with the 25-day SMA above and the 100-day SMA below. My cats could have traded this setup – unfortunately they are four feet under and won’t be jumping all over my keyboards anymore.

Last but not least – a nice possible setup on nat-gas – pretty much boiler plate test of the NLBL. I have a tiny long exposure here and plan to add positions at 2.091.
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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    silver might have dropped but miners are catching a bid right now…

  • Anonymous

    Mole I’m not seeing how there is a NLBL on the weekly SPX? 

  • Joe_Jones

    Great post Mole

  • Schwerepunkt

    Alice in wonderland. Up is down.

  • Anonymous
  • omelette

    push above 1393 on the SPX would also invalidate the inside week sell that triggered earlier this week. Until then it’s still alive..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NLSL – sorry – I corrected it. A push above would invalidate the original sell signal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    :-)

  • Anonymous

    Whats a rectangle?
    We need to break out of twilight rectangle zone, either up or down

  • Anonymous

    Yen is also bending over and taking it…bukake style!

  • Anonymous

    NG caught some love…Skynard are you in still?

  • Anonymous

    Oh gotta love the whackiness…its such a Fed day!

    Whip me harder uncle Ben – the market literally swoons to your every word…hehe

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    guess it’s a neck brace, rather than a helmet day with the crazy whip saw. 

  • Anonymous

    That crazy Uncle Ben. There is one in every family.

  • Anonymous

    Anyone watching Bernanke? Said he thinks pushing inflation higher (by QE3 for example) would result in little gain in unemployment, and would be “reckless”.  I almost believe the sincerity. If true QE3 is off the table unless recession looms.

  • Anonymous

    Sigh of relief. We no longer in deflation threat. I know duh. But he had to say it

  • Anonymous

    Its going to be happy time for everyone until the election is over.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nope.  but keep spitting out the highlights.
    I’m stuck in cubieland with no tv.
    the tape tells me mostly everything. instantly.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Also says 2% inflation target is symmetric, not a ceiling. So the informal 1.5-2.0% is dead. Soon 2.0% may be a floor.
     

  • Anonymous

    volume is like a 1970’s RCA stereo or similar…

  • Anonymous

    I turned it on and heard ‘the beard’ say “there is a bulge which must be worked off within the system”. Don’t know what he was talking about but puked in my mouth and turned it off. Porn-yes, Benporn-no.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    must….not…post….graphic.
    (Mmmmmphf)

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s beautiful.
    the best oval curve fit to date.
    you should file that one away.

  • Anonymous

     Apparently the cable “dip” was a buy.  Thanks short interest.

  • Anonymous

     and Bernanke.  Perhaps this megaphone will do.  Probably not.

  • Anonymous

    Im feeling a bit flat today, maybe its the weather!
    Anyway, good point for bulls if they can break upwards
    http://www.bambinogoodies.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Brink-and-Campman-Bear-Rug-Red.jpg

  • Anonymous

    Nothing has changed. still there still bearish. what has happened was just a mirror image of 4/23

  • http://twitter.com/RolloTomasi3 Rollo Tomasi

    Geronimo YTD is 70-83 for a loss of $1362.50 per my records.

  • Anonymous

    Yup…I took damage to my account this day but if I now look back to Monday at my trading log where all my positions hit trailers and if none of those positions had been taken off I would’ve been net slightly up.

    That shows that we’ve done a lot of circling of the bandwagon this week.

  • Anonymous

    What is your discipline strategy from your trading plan when a bad day occurs?

    How do you reward yourself on good days?

    Just a few things I have implemented into my trading plan and thought I would share. As corny as it sounds it does work. Well it does for me anyway.

  • Anonymous

    Yea most definitely.

  • Anonymous

    Benching myself is the usual thing I do if I feel like I’ve had a bad day. I’ve called it quits in the middle of the day too if I don’t feel my mind is there. After yesterday’s stupidity, I took no trades today…but old positions that got initiated yesterday are all red today.

    Yes I missed out on the inside day but given how frazzled and trading scared I was today…it was for the best. No need for my own silly behaviour to compound on a day where the account is down 2%. Doesn’t mean that I’m blind though, I’m still seated here watching and stops are in place etc.

    I’ll be back at it tmr, I think.

    As for good days, I don’t reward myself or anything. Bad or good day, its followed by an hour in the gym or 2 hrs of skating on the ice to clear the head. Then I come home, eat dinner, and go through my trading log. I’m still trying to develop some sort of method to identify setups for FX. I intend to make FX my bread and butter and to try to get back to trades that last 1-3 weeks rather than 2-3 days. That’ll suit my future lifestyle better.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Market close in 10min
    clean up your desk, and swab the deck.

  • Anonymous

    DXY doesn’t look good at all.

  • Anonymous

    DXY still within the wedges, barely.
    SPX broke down thru its wedge pon Monday but bounced back like a rubber apple.

  • Anonymous

    ooh surprise! 1390.76

  • Anonymous

     You are on the right path. We all have bad days. I had a real bad one not too long ago. My main weakness is chasing a loss. When I lose a trade my reaction is get it back at all costs. Its still a struggle and the main reason I went from a  bad day to a real bad day. The issue with me is not the money. Its about being wrong when i place a trade. I am a competitive individual and like to win. Thats where my weakness comes into play. I am working on it though.

     My personal style of trading places me in a trade for a few minutes if the market is moving fast or a few hours max. I never hold. I tried to be a swing trader and I just can’t do it. Everyone is different. Only advice I can tell you about your system is if it works longterm and has been tested for a long period of time and proves profitable then stick with it. Losses are part of the game. You may lose a few in a row but if your risk reward is 2 to 1 or more then a winning percentage doesn’t matter. 50% win rate will make you some cash.

    Hang in there you will be back. You are around good guys and gals who are willing to help. Keep it simple and don’t complicate your strategy. I see charts with so many indicators and ask how and the hell can you trade that. All that was created was an illusion. So many indies on a chart you can’t even see the candlesticks. Just keep it simple and you will succeed.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    May 7th top target (time, not price)

    http://postimage.org/image/8eua8xbcz/ 

  • Anonymous

    Yup….totally agree. Like today was terrible on the account but the prior two days I didn’t lose any money but I did see lots of unrealised profits go up in smoke. I know that I’m not picking winners often enough to afford 1:1 trades. So that’s why I was upset at letting 3 bigt rades dissolve into 1R and two 0.75R trades.

    I agree – I need to find myself sth simple and longer term. Intra day stuff may be exciting but I’d prefer figuring out a style that will let me focus more on EoD charts, even EoW rather than intraday.

  • Anonymous

    maybe a ZL video might be appropriate for this evening, if possible….just askin

  • Anonymous

    Trade management is very important. Before I place a trade I know my target. When it gets to my target I either get out or move my stop depending on what the chart is telling me. 

  • Fibz

    Bonds (particularly BOND) recovered somewhat at end of day.

  • Anonymous

    DXY depends. The continuous contract on TOS shows the lower diagonal being broken. On the June contract it’s still intact.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ack.  just realized that’s when Fearless will show up and say, ‘told you so’.
    ARGGGGHHHHHH! (DG runs down the hall hair on fire)

  • Anonymous

    The big question is “whats a bad day?”

    If I have traded perfectly but lost money I make sure and reward myself, a favorite meal, quiet time, a movie, etc.

    If I have traded fast and loose but won money, I make sure and document how I could have done better and refuse to give myself a pat on the back for suboptimal, but profitable trading.

  • Anonymous

    I just noticed we had an inside period last week. We triggered the setup to the downside, but pulled back immediately, thus turning this into a fakeout. Thus, a break of last week’s high of 1392.76 would increase the odds of more upside (and likely lead to a weekly Hammer candle).

  • Anonymous

    Kiwi was outside inside inside daily, yesterdays high has been breached.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1587f34e-b925-4f61-8899-40b5758ad95a/2012-04-25_1704.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/66b67f73-d623-4339-9a15-28ec246d0391/2012-03-30_1234.png
    Ok time to get serious. these two are weekly charts. Obviously it is only my opinion that we still see sucker move to the downside FIRST to put back some good ole fear.. 

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1587f34e-b925-4f61-8899-40b5758ad95a/2012-04-25_1704.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/66b67f73-d623-4339-9a15-28ec246d0391/2012-03-30_1234.png
    Ok time to get serious. these two are weekly charts. Obviously it is only my opinion that we still see sucker move to the downside FIRST to put back some good ole fear.. 

  • Anonymous

    ahh 1.0380 gonna get probed.

  • Anonymous

    ahh 1.0380 gonna get probed.

  • Anonymous

    hahaha Told ya man BTD on that Aussie news!

  • Anonymous

    hahaha Told ya man BTD on that Aussie news!

  • Fibz

    banks seem to be the weak link in the chain.

  • Anonymous

    I agree CS that sometimes it just won’t work out. In that case where you traded like you were suppose to and it failed, then I agree you should not be harsh on yourself. Rewarding yourself is fine. 

    My response to Drew may have been vague but I was gathering he made some mental mistakes from his responses and strayed from his trading plan. In summary totally agree with you. Each trader must define whats a good day and a bad one. Go from there. 

  • Anonymous

    why in the world would he buy on news? AUD/JPY, I havent paid any attention to it but still looks well of the highs. About 400 pips.

  • omelette
  • Anonymous

    That selloff was bogus. That the CPI would come in weak was no surprise. Then why selloff?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Im talking about the overall picture. daily charts. the thing still looks weak.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How do you link to comments? I never figured that out…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No can’t do for a while, sorry badger boy. All my video equp is already packed. Very hard to do from my lappy. You do realize I am moving to another continent this weekend, right? So you may imagine the state in mind I am in…

  • Anonymous

    Sorry mate, didn’t really follow the comments today. :)

  • Anonymous

    Looks like all the setups were bang on. All I need is a few million bucks so I can take all the setups!

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY been moving up and will reverse position on a break of today’s high:) 

    Trying to keep it simple, the hourly looks like it wants to go higher.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey mate – question – do you see my emails? I sent you a few in the past few weeks – have a feeling you’re not getting them.

  • Anonymous

     inside bar on the 30min

  • Anonymous

    Well, good luck with that!  No, I have been away for 1-1/2 weeks, so I didn’t know you were moving….THAT, can be a drag.  Thanks!  I understand.

  • Anonymous

    you gotta have the comment number at the end of the url bar… look at the url bar after clicking omelettes comment

  • Anonymous

    Wow! Nice one Mole, /NG just rocketed:)

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    EUR/USD Looks like there’s going to be action around 1.3250 area, probably shorting.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    Reading blogs around (except ZH), it looks like everything is rosy in the bull world back again

  • Anonymous

    Wouldn’t suprise me to see the sharks out for the kill:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    talking dirty again?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Where do you find such amazing  . . . uh . .  . tidbits?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Chum in the water? Or maybe it’s just apple juice . . . 

  • Joe_Jones

    If volume is any indication you may be right. I, for myself, would love to see an island reversal on the rotten apple tomorrow:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nonsense.
    by bullish percent indicator….(pause)….uh, Hmm.  I don’t have to wait 8 lag days??

    there’s a sign.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709 

  • Anonymous

    Ya, short killer for sure!

  • Anonymous

    If you hover over the date/time on your comment, you’ll see a tool tip come up that says “Link to comment by Molecool”.  On my Mac, I right click to Copy Link, and when I paste it, the whole link will be there.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Is volume telling us anything about the moves in spx or spy?
    Large vol spike 5min on spy well before end of day

  • MonkeyBusiness

    Huge gap up in /NG..good call Mole, too bad I did not jump on it.

  • Joe_Jones

    Perhaps… It all depends how we finish the week IMO

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/caf9c25a-6e2d-4703-8d62-9db4278fe0c2/2012-04-25_2017.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/93387a88-a9d6-4d3a-ba43-23f1b4d0caa0/2012-04-25_2019.png

    alright back from dinner and shower. Mm that GBP/USD short at 1.6100 that was triggered would have been a bitch if I would not have pulled it. I figured it was a hit and run job. anyhow, looking at daily chart and the cumulative monthly it seems this pair is doing the same thing AUD/JPY did at 88.00. Which was getting green on both sides. SO sticking a short below again at 1.6100 and sticking one at 1.6200. Let the games begin boys.

  • Fibz

     Copper’s already looking overbought and hasn’t been able to break above this range of consolidation.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/0b6e0c27-6d86-418c-af6b-b521b0f5461e/2012-03-19_1344.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/7f9ec3f0-c6ef-44e3-87df-b59d8e51397e/2012-03-16_0332.png
    ahh yes found it. this was 03/19/2012 aud/jpy cumulative chart. That is why it is important to looking at them daily. Glad I saved these two because if not I would not be able to show my thesis. 

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn’t even see that – was busy packing. NICE :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Yes it does look overbought if we are in a downtrend. But what worries me is how weak bucky looks right now. It’s sitting on the knife edge, if it hasn’t dropped from it already.
    If the drop is confirmed, I’ll go all in into silver miners. 

  • Joe_Jones

    This looks good AMC. I’ll try that short too.

  • Anonymous

    well just be wary that 1.6200 is only a half lot and I will not tolerate no more than 20 pip loss on that. The 1 lot is located at 1.6100 and I have a 1 lot one located at 1.6300. What I’m trying to say is that the GBP/USD is reaching dangerous levels like the AUD/JPY did.

  • Joe_Jones

    Certainty of death, *small* chance of success… What are we waiting for?;-)

  • Anonymous

    lol! are you suggesting we go short here? I rather not. Ill wait for it.

  • Anonymous

     Thanks for the insight, I remember you saying something about green on both sides being unhealthy.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    Hi guys is it bullish when price moves sideways while stochastic moves downwards like in this case?

  • Anonymous

    To me it seems that would be bullish working off overbought conditions by going sideways.

  • Anonymous

    Short /ES , stop above 1390:)

  • Anonymous

    LOL – you holding that overnight? Gonna need a wide stop for Asian market swings!

  • Anonymous

    Yep, until death do us part:)

  • Anonymous

    Ever reliable for a funny quote… =)

    Judging by the action today, probably 1383 and then 1380 are good targets…but bah what do I know. I sat this one out. 

  • Anonymous

    Asia markets do not seem to have nearly as much impact as the Euro markets do. If we sell off will be sure to set my alarm:)

  • Anonymous

    Just noticed, ZFX OOC:(

  • Anonymous

    What about it?

  • Anonymous

    “Out  of commission”

  • Anonymous

    Oh haha…yea…its been the case for an hr.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    USD index falling wedge..similar action to March April…will it fake out the dollar bears? Quick fall only to reverse?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Anonymous

    hello gentlemen.  Well GBP/USD triggered. Still holding my AUD/USD. I tell you what I really which my take profit levels were more like my limit orders this week. 😉

  • Anonymous

    good article. 

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    9 green daily sticks in a row. 

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Apparently it’s closed green 9 times or more only 4 times in the past 10 years.

  • Anonymous

    Yea, it is a pair worth keeping sell orders below or another hundred pips above. WHEN it start to fall it could be a brutal fall to 1.5800

  • Anonymous

     Indeed, the key is not getting hurt before then. At least there’s sort of a statistical edge for countering here.

  • Anonymous

    Yea I would not waste time trying to pin point it, rather start positioning yourself accordingly.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    NZD/USD hit the daily NLBL at 0.8187 and bounced so far, nice.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    usd index updated chart..starting to turn up…

  • Anonymous

    nope gone. USD/CAD. I’ll just have to wait for that one.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Is there a court in the world somewhere that would convict all central bankers of price collusion? [Don’t waste your time with an answer, it was a rhetorical question.]

  • Schwerepunkt

    unemployment numbers worse than expected. mini dump

  • Anonymous

    I got stopped out of that one…I think this one is a wait for May play. The Loonie tends to get…err…Loony strong in May. It’s a seasonality issue although it certainly hasn’t been the case the past 2 years.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Nice little spike in USD.CAD after the unemployment number.

  • Anonymous

    I know – always happens whens you get stop out…hehe

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    morning rats.
    proud to say we hit the fan line overnight.
    confused as to today’s direction.
    will it be a suck-the-bears-in on the bad news open, then shoot higher?

    moved the T-post.
    http://i46.tinypic.com/2ueid5y.png 
    -DG

  • Schwerepunkt

    Morning Gerb. Probably shoot higher. Benny’s lingering fingering of the market at work today.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    UUP opens at a new low for the week..that certainly won’t hurt.

  • Anonymous

    Paging Doc McCoy…the Zero is deaddddddddddd….

    (Flatlining – not down if you’re confused!)

  • Anonymous

    It’s dead, Jim….

  • Schwerepunkt

    NG trying to breakout; gonna get the storage number in a couple minutes. Should be interesting. Expectation is for an injection of 46 billion CF. 

  • Anonymous

    Guys who took the Nat Gas Trade – Storage Data in 1 minute!

  • Anonymous
  • Joe_Jones

    What are the blue rectangles for?

  • Anonymous

    Ive noticed that those usually signal sucker move to the other side of BB.

  • Anonymous

    oh how I loathe the .0300 range.

  • Kudos

    Both the zero and zfx seem to be working for me

  • Anonymous

    Sounds like a bunch of people whining and blaming central banks for their own inability to trade the markets. Cable alone moved between 2.11 and 1.35 and the last 5 years. EUR/USD has been moving between 0.82 and 1.60. If that’s not enough of a trend for them to trade, they should’ve switched to shorting NG years ago.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes prob right..as well as people (traders) focusing on the short term..

  • Anonymous

    Yea when I read it the first time this morning I was under the impression it was talking about moves just recently (no stimulants yet). Most definitely the fault of traders not being able to nail this markets several times.

  • Anonymous

    I wonder how this will end. 50-month SMA is at 1.6316, but unless something happens soon, we will trigger that monthly NLBL at 1.6193 (not shown). This would be bullish for the coming weeks and months and open up the possibility of a move to the upper diagonal and the 200-month SMA at around 1.66.
    It seems the market has to make a decision very soon about the intermediate term direction and the Dollar is once again at the centre of this.

  • Anonymous

    hey volar are you still short LE? 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    /ES 1387 – right around 30sma daily.

    the drama, the DRAMA!

  • Anonymous

    A host of Japanese data and BoJ related stuff this evening EDT and tmr morning.

  • Anonymous

    GBP/USD at b/e now. soo yea this is possibly the strangest day so far this year.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Anonymous

    Oh sorry I was not talking about the GBP/USD. I’m talking about the relative calmness in all markets.

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD off the lows, but it seems to be heading north still. Odd, given the way equities are moving.

  • Anonymous

    CS’s proverbial ‘expect a small range day after a long candle’…but, yes, real snoozefest.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    agreed.
    wundering if /ES is just a ramp-n-camp for now.
    one final push to Monthend and mutual fund Monday Monday!

  • Anonymous

    Don’t get fooled by statistics.

    Let’G_i’ be a predicate “i consecutive green candles” and
    P(G_i) be the probability that for any window of i candles all are green (the 4 out of n windows you mentioned). 
    It’s a fallacy to use this number as the odds of another green candle happening.
    What you’re really looking for is the conditional probability P(G_9|G_8), meaning the probability that there will be 9 green candles after 8 have already happened.

    We can use the Bayes’ Theorem:
    P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B)
    P(G_9|G_8) = P(G_8|G_9)P(G_9) / P(G_8)

    We know that 8 green candles have to have happened if we get 9 green candles, thus: 
    P(G_8|G_9) = 1
    which allows us to simplify
    P(G_9|G_8) = P(G_9) / P(G_8)

    So, basically you need to divide the probability of a window of 9 candles consisting of all green ones by the probability of a window of 8 candles consisting of all green ones. I have some Matlab code for doing this, but the problem is that there are too few samples (only 4 for G_9) to allow for a statistically robust estimate. However, similar calculations on the SPX for example show that the odds of another green candle in a situation like this are > 50%. Thus, contrary to our intuition the odds oftentimes are actually in favour of the trend continuing.

    [Blimey, am I bored. I need something to trade!]

  • Anonymous

    10 year yields are pretty low as well. Just weird day. Good job benny!

  • Joe_Jones

    The current situation is unsustainable. Either bucky falls off the cliff and it’s “nighty night” for PM, oil and commodities, or a massive sell off is triggered and we see the opposite. Bucky right now is holding by a pubic hair. When that breaks, I’ll be the biggest PM bull.

  • Anonymous

    Yup…not liking the fact i got taken out on that swing down this morning but I’m not moving stops…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Is there some neg divergence between AUDJPY and equities recently? Or just my eyes are deceiving me…

  • Anonymous

    I took it, added shorts after the report. It looked like a big pump to me since Monday. The NATGAS is a disaster from a fundamental point. Storage is due to be exhausted by October. I wonder what would they do with the gas then, give it away?

  • Anonymous

    Unless we break above spx 1395 today, than back down we could go? 

  • Anonymous

    I just hope the market has not been pegged for a longer time period. You are right though the current situation is absolutely unsustainable. Let us not forget about the student loan market.  That will be another problem that is guaranteed if job markets do not pick up. Matter of fact if it were not for trading MY student loan would have been a problem. That bank job I had was not going to do it. Yea maybe making minimum payments for 15 years. I think benny boy is wrong there is a bad structural problem right now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Flare it or shut-in wells.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JJ, the dollar should get soggy till May 02.  just enough to suck in the dollar bears and give the Market a lift.
    I expect a reversal soon after, but not pinpoint precision.
    why?  the left side of the large invert T is fuzzy.
    If the dollar reverses up.  Sell in May (equities) will be true, for a 3rd consecutive time.

    http://postimage.org/image/w8xnqz55t/

  • Anonymous

    I read somewhere that student loan debt was to hit $1 Trillion yest. or today.

  • Anonymous

    Keep your friends close, and your stops closer

  • Anonymous

    Yeah… they have to start adjusting the production down. Encana keeps announcing production reduction. It just seems to me it’s a bluff. They seem to still make money at these prices. Game theory at work, no one wants to give up the last crumb. It’s gonna be so interesting…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Rig count keeps climbing in the US, though. Mind-boggling.

    http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

  • Anonymous

    Well isn’t there a lag between rigs coming online and prices?

  • Anonymous

    I mean it is stupid. Sallie Mae another GSE formed in 1970. Obvious is obvious that is all.

  • Joe_Jones

    The housing, jobs, loans,etc., problem has been hanging there for quite a while now. 

    I still consider the last 3 days as a sucker move. Though, depending on what bucky and copper do in the next few hours, I may change my mind.

    If the message from the dungeon master is “we gonna print some more”, I won’t fight him but will be hitching a ride of the Silver Bullet Express. Right now though, I am still itching…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sure, but we just hit 10-year lows on NG prices in the north american market. It’s pretty easy to mothball these things. And the trend has been down for some time. PLenty of time to exit (penalty) or not renew (free) contracts.

  • Anonymous

    Nice! What I found was a decrease, rather substantial… cannot find the link now. I am not knowledgeable in this area but I like it as an example of the game theory prisoners problem.
    I looked at the shape of the market with my limited knowledge (I know Mole will not agree with me, and I bow to greatness :) but it looks to me like a pump. If someone wanted to actually accumulate they would not have used the wee hours to buy massively. To me sounds like painting the tape. I am so curious how this will evolve. I made some mistakes and I am not positive now. I just recuperated a bit.

  • Joe_Jones

    you got a point DG

  • Anonymous

    AUD not buying it!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    patience.
    the rat team will figure it out.

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    now it it, but’s off the highs overnight still.

  • Anonymous

    And I remember us protesting when university started to cost us 1000 EUR per year (after being free apart from some minor administrative fees)…

  • Joe_Jones
  • Schwerepunkt

    yeah, but a trillion dollars ain’t what it  used to be. There are so many of them now . . . 

  • Anonymous

    LOL…AUD/JPY is holding but its AUD/USD cousin is not…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’d like CS to comment on that one!
    four monthly candle (bodies) within the fifth.
    it’s a big deal, IMHO.

  • Anonymous

    Like that div and have went short /ES:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES1392.25 is the line, it could overthrow by a couple, but much higher than 1394 and it’s time to put our rally hats on.

  • Joe_Jones

    mmmm… parabolic move during lunch time whilst zero is not impressed. Sounds like the right trade Sky.

  • Anonymous
  • Joe_Jones

    yep one fugly chart

  • Anonymous

    of course not. AUD/USD is gonna tell me once again that .0430 is the magic number. Just seems like inevitably at this point it could fall from here but for good measure I could see it popping those levels first.

  • Anonymous

    I guess you’ll hold all the way up to there too since you don’t want to have to find another entry?

  • Joe_Jones

    We’re having our exhaustion candle!!!

    [JJ scraping drawers for short money]

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    I wish $TICK hit an extreme reading on that push to 1394ES, but it didn’t. +730 is not extreme enough to me to signal a daily top.

  • Anonymous

    VIX 15.88

  • Joe_Jones

    tops do not happen at TICK extremes but rather at lower divergent TICK

  • Anonymous

    Attn Zero Experts:  the 5min ZL has been kinda flat, inside a small range; but the ES marches higher throughout.

    Analysis?  Meaningful?  I watch the ZL, but I’m not a good clue reader.

  • Anonymous

     Like I said before I’m a bit tired of this entering and exiting exercise. I mean negative 90ish points is not something I like to see BUT considering the range we have been in it is no big deal yet. I will call it quits at 1.0450. However, for good measure I have moved my sell from 1.0400 to 1.0430.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, but you usually need an extreme reading a little before the top in price, only then does it diverge. +730 is not enough in my book. Of course, I could be wrong . . . 

  • Anonymous

    I see +1103 TICK at  ES 1394 hi at 1:40 pm EST…I use IB

  • Joe_Jones

    my stockchart TICK (although not reliable) has a top TICK of 1115, four 5 min candles ago

  • Schwerepunkt

    I don’t have that reading. Mine says 730 at 1:38, with an earlier high of 826 at 10:44am.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • Joe_Jones

    Parabolic moves with a flat zero = take profit (if you were long)

  • Anonymous

    Still hanging out, don’t think it will last. SPX 1400 test it is:)