Inside Pay Day

Today I am writing you from what must be the most ridiculous hotel I must have ever stayed in. And that’s something given that my reference is a cheap U.S. drive-thru motel culture. The price for the best room here was a whopping €20.-, which by the way makes it the most expensive hotel in the tiny little pueblo I wound up finding refuge tonight when it started to pour cats and dogs.

I think you can tell by the eclectic choice of curtains which I would carbon date somewhere around 1971 – probably predating most of the etablissement’s inhabitants tonight. The good news is that Internet kicks real butt here and I was able to run all over my charts remotely. Which was important as today’s session bestowed us with much needed information plus ample coin – assuming of course you took that inside day setup yesterday.

That’s right – 1374.71 was were the rubber met the road – thus far more than 11 handles in the plus. Given the vehemence of this candle I would recommend taking partial profits now and perhaps keeping a few lottery tickets at hand.

Also very positive is that we held at the second volume hole and are no in the process of testing the second. If we can close above 1380 today then I think it would establish a nice base for pushing this thing higher. Not without a little shake out of some Johnny Come Latelys – goes without saying.

But I have plenty more where that came from – please step into my ridiculously decorated mini lair:


More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 12th, 2012 at 2:42 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Fibz

    That reminds me of a hotel I stayed at in Poland once. Couldn’t find a hotel in town, so the receptionist at a full hotel called a taxi to take me to another “mystery” hotel out in who-knows-where which was quite a humdinger. Could have been my state of inebriation which made her tell me the hotel was full…

  • Anonymous

    Sure. That way the *other* hotel has to clean the barf out of the carpet :-)

  • Anonymous

    Mobile Mole R o c k s

  • Anonymous

    Mole – on that daily chart above, did you mean 1390 instead of 1380?  Maybe I’m not seeing what you mean…

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    anyone shorting the aud/jpy pair here?

  • Anonymous

    Who’s still holding on to vega?

  • Anonymous

    I would just like to warn everyone that 1.0500 could very well get hit tonight. It will only be for stop hunting reason nothing fundamental about it or directional change.

  • Anonymous

    As much as I love and trust Mole’s setups, I’m very wary leaving anything overnight with Chinese data on the way on the Asian open AND Bernanke talking tmr.

    I’ll be making it a long weekend for myself.

  • Anonymous

    Scaling.  I’m selling my trend day buy at the close but keeping my other longs from yesterday.  Next time we get an 80% trend day alert I’m going ALL IN.

  • Anonymous

    That’s what I said to myself last time, but today’s trend day has breached the zero mark several times AND it started in negative territory. It’s always easy to say after the fact.

    I’ll escape today with maybe only 4-6 handles and that is frankly very very disappointing. Amidst all the noise of trend day, and everyone screaming to short this thing, I forgot we had an inside day trade too. Couple that with a few things that happened at home this morning, I have had easily the worst day of trading in my life that was still profitable.

    (Don’t ask about the worst days that were unprofitable ;P)

    In essence, this should’ve been one of those days that not only makes a week, but a month too with all the clear signals. Instead, I just leave the day 1% up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh yeah – and the water is only luke-warm – which I just found out the hard way – LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Didn’t you bitch about my inside day setup yesterday as well? ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not going to say that today was the easiest session but if you look at those drops in comparison with the spikes then I think that watching for a reversal at -0.5 was a possibility. ESPECIALLY since we never touched VWAP. I am going to cover this another time if possible.

  • Anonymous

    AAII sentiment data:

    Bullish: 28.1% (-10)
    Neutral: 30.3% (-3.7)
    Bearish: 41.6% (+13.8)

    Retail schmucks are now bearish, ladies and gentlemen.

  • Anonymous

     Only 4-6 handles? Just increase the size of your bet :) Just kidding. Don’t be hard on yourself. One of my buddies got his face ripped off today as he was on the other side of the tape today, convinced we were going to fall off the cliff.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    thank you – I think most rats here have no idea what it takes to whip this out on a small lappy.

  • Anonymous

    Haha no it wasn’t me =P

    I remember who it was though hehe

  • Anonymous

    Hourly unsmoothed looks clearly bullish.  I also will admit the 5 min had some moments.  Definitely some fear in the market showing up there.  Can’t blame them after the fall we just had.

  • Anonymous

    Don’t know how you do it…but I’m sure as hell glad you do =)

  • Anonymous

    Be careful with that. Because I could easily see  that sentiment turn bullish. If this market stays up here. And say we see 1405 again and holds for a day or two. Then BAM! Everyone looking around asking “Are we back at 1360 AGAIN?!” 

  • Kudos

    I do recall you saying something about bullish trends not breaching -.5 on pullbacks

  • Anonymous

    deep retraces aside, new highs on the cards?

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/448c003f-470e-4608-944e-4c83818aa961/2012-04-12_1556.png
    Also, just a little reminder. We ARE not in sucker move territory anymore. You know bear attacks are fast and brutal. But that is ONLY my opinion. 

  • Anonymous

    That’s basically what I’m looking for. I think we could easily see a deep retracement for the next couple of days well into next week to work off that sentiment before the drop continues. Short-term this has turned too bearish to soon.

  • Anonymous

    Not impossible. I think the retracement is more likely, but the drop has seemingly alleviated the extreme readings in sentiment, IV and other internals, so there could be room for another run.

  • Anonymous

    thx boss. nice work as usual. trend signal spot on too!

  • Anonymous

     $GOOG splits, earnings better, rev in line, trading up now

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    buying exhaustion print on the audjpy would be good

  • Anonymous

    Yes, lets see. I need to keep capital for other purposes for next few months, so didnt go long at 1358-ish.

    Its always the case – re buy when everyone is selling, and sell when everyone is buying (within appropriate trading time-frame/big picture of course)

  • Schwerepunkt

    stock splits are shenanigans, but I think this one is designed as a dividend. 

  • Anonymous

    Rather volatile movement: down to 627, then up to 671.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole-eo.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY update.
    hit the 2nd fib fan.  guess it could slide ..

    http://www.uploadup.com/di-C7EY.png
    -DG

  • Anonymous

     of course they are. this one also allows them to keep their 2 class structure.

  • Anonymous

    yep, but did you notice the run up into the close? I know all boats were lifted today, but that was telegraphed

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    are you positioned to short it?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no.
    my experience is that the pullback is weak.
    and essentially a pause to rest for a potential run-up 13th.
    ie: I don’t like the setup.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    there goes the zero print

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s quite possible the 15th is a LOW marker!
    the run is so strong, I give it less 30% chance to rollover.

    so no one take me as an Oracle.

  • Anonymous

    You just like making me sweat my long lol…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m sweating my own longs (edit: not aud/jpy), having fur doesn’t help.  he he.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    anyone shorting the zero print?

  • Anonymous

    I would not advise it. Wait for a pullback to buy. I dont use the zero to fight the trend.

  • Anonymous

     The trend is your Breast friend

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    i still think pullback here possible with chinese data as catalyst

  • Anonymous

    Nice pic :-)
    (i couldnt find one suitably subtle)

  • Anonymous

    Daily ZL update please, if possible?  THX

  • Anonymous

    Was that the 10:00 candle on /NG? Geez, maybe a sign for a long……..

    Inverted on the daily:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPX,
    I’ve called out the red line that was touched during the Fukukisma low back in Feb.
    recently, it served as a ceiling, then created a dragonfly/hangingman on the line during the March 6th scare.

    looks like it has some respect now (at least this week), serving as support.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75625196652

  • Anonymous

    A thought about the 2011 analogy. Some time ago I argued, that we we’re not only in a 2011 but also 2010 analogy. Both years we saw a meaningful but smaller drop early in the year and then a bigger one some time later (actually we saw this in 2009 too, but a lot less pronounced). Both times the topping process was accompanied by a divergence in the VIX/VXO ratio with a big spike occurring shortly before the first spike an a lower high before the actual high for the year.
    In 2010 we painted a Hammer on the weekly chart at the bottom of that first drop and continued higher to that top in summer. Well, that’s what we are about to do again, unless we drop hard tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    That 5 min AUDJPY signal was spot on.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Awww – don’t get all mushy on me now!!
    ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Soy una machina!! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Probably – I’m sure you guys see the levels on the chart. Too tired now – must go to bed…

  • Anonymous

    Scalping?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Had a partial long and reversed it after receiving that signal.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    your a machine.

    first you get the money, then you get the power, then you’ll get the women. ;-)

    http://www.chilloutpoint.com/images/2009/09/human-and-robots-visions-of-the-future/human-vs-robot-10.jpg

  • Anonymous

     I thought women dont care if da man is rich or poor :-)

  • Anonymous

    LOL! Only thing I did right today. Hehe, no live ins though:)

  • Anonymous

    If that’s what your plan is then do it. But recognise the risk that the Chinese data can be a catalyst for the REVERSE and also realise that the RBA is releasing its meeting minutes Tuesday morning Australian time or roughly 9PM Monday the 23rd ET.

    Focus first on what you stand to lose! Not to mention, those two events alone could lead to some very very volatile trading where stops get wiped out. If you don’t think you can stomach it, sit out. Oh and Bernanke speaks tmr too!I’m not psychologically strong enough to sit through all that volatility, hence why I’ll take tmr off, and not touch AUD related things till Tuesday.

  • Joe_Jones

    For me what you just said is equivalent to trading the news. Meh.

  • Anonymous

    Well what I’m trying to say is – don’t trade the news! He’s basing his trade on the data coming out in his favour.

    For me, if you know news events are coming around the corner that can result in silly volatility you can do two things – sit and wait till the news event passes because the trend will still be there or you can sit through it all but still have to manage those stops just to not get knocked out of the position by sth silly that some random official says.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    my stops are tight only few pips above the resistance i think good r/r here

  • Anonymous

    Tight stops can be double edged swords. A tight stop can be wiped out by freak volatility even if the thing reverts back in the right decision. Just because of a 1 minute spike, you can get knocked out before the thing continues going in the right direction. It’s a bit like AMCabrera warning everyone last night to be mindful where their stops were.

    Take a look at some of the spikes we’ve seen on AUD/JPY the past few weeks.

  • Anonymous

    Ouche!!!

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/12de1321-b574-4d28-a3c9-db0fd51ce69a/2012-04-12_1923.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/5ff86009-0c77-4222-9e1f-2959434af17c/2012-04-12_1929.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/68541f81-3f12-4391-bf52-89aa62ced331/2012-04-04_1916.png
    The /es chart is straight forward just a little penn & teller for ya. I provided a before and after chart. All I did was move down and extend forward. Also, I think I found a prerequisite IF we are to march higher in the S&P index. We did not see a punch through this afternoon so I see highly probability of it touching middle line of yellow oval.  

  • Anonymous

    Yup, look where the AUD/USD is at 1.0430. That is where I went short last week, and I could easily imagine it hitting 1.0510 for shits and giggles before the down pour to parity happens.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    another zero print, looks good so far i still think this thing gona drop

  • Schwerepunkt

    Isn’t the North Korean missile called “No Dong”? Very apropos . . . 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Is that the background image for your next chart, the Pussy-T?

  • Anonymous

    It was the storage report. It showed less build-up than expected, 8 vs. 22 BCF expected. 
    EDIT: It was at 10:30. Comes in Thursdays at this hour. You can see it here first: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

    D

  • Anonymous

    Ah, lower inventory should increase price:)

  • Anonymous

    I actually put in a small order for a short at 1.05…

    I’m not touching Aussie related stuff till after the RBA minutes…I think.

  • Schwerepunkt

    CHINA! or china? 

  • Anonymous

    Stayed long ;-)….wish me luck!

  • Anonymous

    Good luck. If you are long from yesterday you could close and buy the dips.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – last 20 min.

    O….M…..G.

  • Anonymous

    On one hand I’m happy i didn’t short…

    On the other hand…damn I let go of that long 2 days too early

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m just hoping JJ didn’t go out in flames.
    he got quiet.

    and yes, welcome to my world.

  • Anonymous

    I know…and eeesh….another short signal on AUD/JPY went out. Those signals tend to work well but as much as I don’t want to trade news, sometimes sidestepping it is necessary.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    still here got stopped out early but looking at aud/usd now for short hah a im not giving up yet

  • Anonymous

    How much damage did you take? I’m looking at AUD/USD too…but order is at 1.05

    Looks like Mole nailed them all in his recommendations..

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    20 pips 

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    looking to take 15 – 20 on the aussie too

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    zero another print wow

  • Anonymous

    Yikes…that tight

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    im not that crazy haha

  • Anonymous

    That’s 3 strikes……….OUT!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ding.  3rd floor.
    lingerie, lubes, and lotions.
    http://i40.tinypic.com/351ihxu.png

  • Anonymous

    You stilll in this thing? I got knocked out at B/E overnight but I remember you went long around 82.6

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    bam $$$$$$$

  • Anonymous

    Wow! WTH!!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    8.1% GDP in CHINAland

  • Anonymous

    WTF!???!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    WHAT!!!!!
    **********

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    China?

  • Anonymous

    Oh yea…numbers from my (other) motherland

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    hope u guys got in :)

  • Anonymous

    Yep. But news doesnt matter Eh?

  • Anonymous

    Closed before chinese data…damn am I grinning!

  • Anonymous

    Good for you. Now buy the dip that comes.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    same here LOL

  • Schwerepunkt

    Shhhhhh!  It does matter, just don’t say it here.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    whoever took the last zero signal must be smiling now

  • Joe_Jones

    Oh! China missed, how convenient… ;-)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s just a pullback. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Yep. Buy the dip.

  • Anonymous

    Just a scratch…LOL

  • Anonymous

    I’ll give it a few more minutes to settle down…

    So elevator to 85 is it?

  • Anonymous

    Looking for marginal higher highs with lower RSI on ES. Not sure where the Aussie will get at that point.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh good.  you’re alive.

  • Anonymous

    Yep convenient piece of news just as the Aussie was getting overstretched. Now to scare some children and then head higher.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ding.  2nd floor.

    is this fan line bumper POOL!?

    http://i39.tinypic.com/2vt409k.png 

  • Anonymous

    Nah. Shake the tree stronger. Stop out weaklings.

  • Anonymous

    You may be better buying at 82 by the looks of it:)

    Probable bounce @ 84 (lower BB)

  • Anonymous

    Hehe…you want it to go back to your magical entry don’t you?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I have a theory.
    before any big news, they run it up too high, then dump it too low.
    it works better than Elliot.
    my 2 grams.

  • Anonymous

    Remember all the talking heads on CNBC wwere saying Alcoa was going to miss and talked the markets down. Then Boom!

  • Anonymous

     AVG @ 84.44

  • Schwerepunkt

    No talk about the VIX buy signal?

  • Anonymous

    Market likes to screw the most number of ppl…

  • Anonymous

    and this morning as well with the weekly claims, it was all doom and gloom then we took the express elevator up

  • Anonymous

    Like…there’s obviously rules and laws in their contracts, but imagine if central bankers were tipping ppl off on the FX markets? Way harder to hide than equity insider trading no?

  • Anonymous

    I’m a little surprised AUD/JPY didn’t take more damage here…

  • Anonymous

    Is it official?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    wow, you listen to those guys?
    I’ll pray for you…and your account. :-)

  • Anonymous

    #s out of China seen good

  • Anonymous

    Try not to. Thats all I have at work for “news”.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    let’s not forget, Mole is traveling.
    the possibilities are LIMITLESSSsssss!

  • Anonymous

    #s out of China seem good

  • Joe_Jones

    Sticking to my plan…

  • Anonymous

    Righty-oh…we can only go long once Mole returns haha

  • Joe_Jones

    Who says it heads higher?

  • Anonymous

    /ZS looking good on a retest here for a short.

  • Joe_Jones

    we have step 2

  • Joe_Jones

    you got that right

  • Schwerepunkt

    We’ve got step 2; need a lower close on the VIX than today’s at 17.20 for step 3.

  • Joe_Jones

    hence news don’t matter

  • Anonymous

    Damn thing got crushed today.

  • Joe_Jones

    no buy signal, only step 2 

  • Anonymous

    Step 2 was confirmed today…now just one more to go…

    EDIT – CRAP – didn’t realise it has been answered already

  • Joe_Jones

    news don’t matter

  • Anonymous

    Read my mind….

  • Anonymous

    It’s a coin flip. It does depending on what position you have going on at the time and how much heat you can afford to take :)

  • Anonymous

    Any likelihood for it to break into the 16′s?

  • Anonymous

    But the panic and waves of stop destruction that accompany news can make it a inconvenience ;p

  • Joe_Jones

    correct! He comes back for OPEX right?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Certainly, but we’d need a market reversal overnight or tomorrow by the close and with the China news, that may be difficult. 

  • Anonymous

    Yup…just in time for all the OPEX-related fuckery and shenanigans…

    That’s another friday I’ll likely take off *rolls eyes*

  • Joe_Jones

    I don’t trade news, I trade technicals. In my assessment, the medium trend has changed to down. If I am wrong, I’ll take my losses and re-assess.

  • Joe_Jones

    true. It’s one of the problems of FX trading.

  • Anonymous

    so does everyone else. what do you define as medium trend?

  • Joe_Jones

    10 days – two weeks

  • Anonymous

    Was referring to the 3 signals it received:)

  • Anonymous

    LOL! They are the most fun:)

  • Anonymous

    Now 60 min, matched set:)

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    seems like when both 5 min and 60 min comply the signal tends to work out

  • Anonymous

    You guys referring to the ZeroFX alert from an hr+ ago?

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    yea but i took the last 5 min signal and shorted the aud/usd instead 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Yes, did not realize it until recently that one of them was a 60 min.

  • Anonymous

    Am i the only one here who thinks AUD/JPY bounces here!? Or at least cools down here…

    I’m not convinced we see more downside…yet. Not in the Asian session that is.

  • Anonymous

    Wow! Kinda makes your head spin………….Oh, maybe it’s the Jack:)

  • Anonymous

    Looking that way, /ES popped.

  • Anonymous

    Come on guys, Mole has never said news doesnt matter to life, to individuals, etc etc…just to trading. How can you trade the news? We as sheep are fed what we they want us to hear, we find out shit last, all the big boys find out first. Maybe if you really know something in advance, before the bots, before the crooks, then yes, you can trade the news…but otherwise its a mugs game and dont do it.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    5months ago.
    where have you been!?

    Very pretty. If it keeps on following that curve it’ll go back in time. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/04/20120401_HeavyFlow.png
    Seen it first here on ES. http://evilspeculator.com/?p=23851
    ? edge… 

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    lol, just reading…minimal trading

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/bcd4974f-b656-4b13-be2d-a1ff2e92b82f/2012-04-13_0605.png
    well good AUD/USD is lower. I couldn’t make it to 10 pm I feel to sleep. Taking the first half lot off. Leaving the other one. You know It ISN’T the markets that are hard to predict, rather it is the emotions that you will feel that are hard to predict when it comes time to execute your plan..Why know most criminals get nabbed, BECAUSE their plan does not go as ORIGINALly planned. ;) . Ok done preaching. Here is the /es chart.

  • Anonymous

    Yep. The big boys know it first. But mole is doing a good job keeping us from harm!

  • Schwerepunkt

    AUD.USD has surmounted the 61.8 retrace from last night’s little water fall. ES almost back to even. I guess that means the way is clear for a VIX buy signal today. But we do have CPI, Consumer Sentiment and Ben ‘the neck-beard’ Bouncer on tap.

  • Anonymous

    oops 1379.

  • Anonymous

    Late bulls should be running for the gates today:)

  • Anonymous

    Yea we’ll see. I really dont want to see a BORINg day and with extra cheese. You know little under 1375 little above 1384

  • Anonymous

    I would really be please with a straight pillage to 1355.

  • Anonymous

    IMO that could happen, this is looking more like a FAKE.

  • Anonymous

    As much as I hate it this will more than likely be a TO BE CONTINUED Friday.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Morning rats.
    The AUD/JPY bull is rested and ready for assault.
    http://i40.tinypic.com/hv11mb.png

  • Anonymous

    Is ZeroFX down again for anybody else? 

  • Anonymous

    HEY thats me dancing with bull. I’ve entered a short in this pair just 20 minutes ago.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    how did that 30ma daily work out for you yesterday?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    So now im using 9dma and 30dma. I will start using the later of the two for entering flagship trades with confidence.

  • Anonymous

    Keeping an eye on COPPER -1.64% (on China, I guess)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Copper is priced in dollars?
    Keep an eye on that too.

  • Anonymous

    up for me.

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