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Interesting Juncture in AUD
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Interesting Juncture in AUD

by ScottJuly 23, 2013

The Aussie has been going down for 3 months. It has shaken out the bottom pickers enough times now that the bus is empty of longs.

One tool I am very fond of is the Oanda net buy/sell orders – http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-open-orders

Oanda has some of the stupidest retail traders on the planet, and A highly reliable indicator of a bottom is a complete absence of Oanda buy orders.

In my opinion we have enough evidence of a potential bullish reversal. Even if the trend remains down, a 38% or 50% counter trend rally would be extremely tradeable.

Right now it has hit and pulled back at the trendline. This is to be expected as it is literally the perfect place to short in a trading range.

Right now the selling pressure is not quite as strong as I would expect from such a well respected trendline. If the bears are overwhelemed here it should be a very nice short squeeze. Keep an eye on it for the next 8 hours or so. (Disclosure I am currently long from the retest variation buy on the daily)

Scott

 

 


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Scott
  • newbfxtrader

    Got the same trendline drawn on my charts for a couple days now. Will probably need a decent Chinese PMI to get the break.

  • Skynard

    Yes, noticed the same. Although, went short .9230 for the fact that it has been making lower highs and could not breach last night. Things will get ugly soon, weather the dollar continues lower is the question.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Indeed. I’m watching USD.CAD as the corollary. It’s in a VERY well defined and regular-cycle uptrend, but currently coming down and approaching the daily support line. Another day or two and we’ll have the answer on both counts, I surmise.

  • convictscott

    It is certainly a short as long as it is below that trendline

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. The COT numbers are impressive but the commercials have bigger pockets than I do…

  • Skynard

    The pace seems to have picked up this morning, this no fear in the market has about run it’s coarse. This week is very important, still short this market but have placed some hedges past few days.

  • neowave

    the Oanda net buy/sell orders is wonderfull, but it is only historical no? how do you take advantage of it in day to day trading?

  • Skynard

    The weekly has turned up, with all the dollar weakness it should have cleared that no problem. Shorts seem they are still playing around.

  • convictscott

    It’s real time and most of the time it is not useful at all, just at turning points on the daily charts

  • sburtt

    keep an eye on is the downwards sloping upper bollinger band 2st.d from the 25SMA, that might cap any rally. Maybe it’s wise to wait for a breach of today’s high, it looks like a SS candle and above we might test that UBB, but anyhow risk/reward doesn’t looks superlative, these mkts are boaring, all hedgies are on holiday ; )

  • http://www.kizi-2.net/ kizi 2

    currency devaluation, I fear that