Interesting Juncture in AUD
The Aussie has been going down for 3 months. It has shaken out the bottom pickers enough times now that the bus is empty of longs.
One tool I am very fond of is the Oanda net buy/sell orders – http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-open-orders
Oanda has some of the stupidest retail traders on the planet, and A highly reliable indicator of a bottom is a complete absence of Oanda buy orders.
In my opinion we have enough evidence of a potential bullish reversal. Even if the trend remains down, a 38% or 50% counter trend rally would be extremely tradeable.
Right now it has hit and pulled back at the trendline. This is to be expected as it is literally the perfect place to short in a trading range.
Right now the selling pressure is not quite as strong as I would expect from such a well respected trendline. If the bears are overwhelemed here it should be a very nice short squeeze. Keep an eye on it for the next 8 hours or so. (Disclosure I am currently long from the retest variation buy on the daily)