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Intra-Day Update: Go market go!
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Intra-Day Update: Go market go!

by The MoleOctober 3, 2008

UPDATE 10:56am EDT: Looks like we have a little pre-bailout rally at hand. Boy, if you ever wondered about the meaning of the aphorism ‘slope of hope’ – well, you can see it right at work here, no kidding. I have been laboring all evening and morning to pick out new victims. Some of them require some time for a good entry, but go ahead and pick your poison:

Tech: ABI CSCO DST ENER LEAP MCHP MIL WAT XLNX new favorites: ISRG BIDU GILD GOOG LLL

Industrial: FAST NCS

Energy/Oil: PBR

Agricultural: BG

BTW, expect a bailout vote to be followed up with a rate cut on the 10th or even before. Doesn’t make a difference technically however, as the ‘effective funds rate’ is currently set at…. wait for it… 0.67%. I’m NOT kidding – I have never seen it that low. Also, there is some monkey business going on with short term reverse repos – today the Feds took back $25Billion in treasuries from its primary dealers – $108 Billion were offered. I think they are still draining the swamp – not exactly sure what’s going on… Last time this happened we got some major Fed interventional on a silver platter. I still will short the heck out of everything with a symbol after the bailout announcement.

UPDATE 1:56pm EDT: Berk and I are backing up the truck.

UPDATE 3:50pm EDT: Not sure about you leeches, but Berk and I are banking some major coin today, and we’re still 75% in cash. Reports from the front would be appreciated.

Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • C.C. Rider

    Ed Harris represents the “hired gun” shorts here.Bloody Friday,bloody Monday, bloody Tuesday etc.

    http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/appaloosa/

  • priran

    http://goldonomic.com/,check it for fannie mac's sake

  • Bartholomy

    Some news …
    159000 job loss in september.
    Wachovia bought by Wells Fargo for 15.1 billion

    We all wait bail out decision.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    See some small fork crosses on Monday or Tuesday
    are we still in wave 4(iv)?
    http://forkoholic.com/images/dailySPX100308.jpg

  • C.C. Rider

    One thing I do expect on the bailout vote, yea or nay, stops will get cleaned out to the upside first around Dow 10800 b4 the fall.

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    So is the Ugly Speculator posting on Slope also you, or did they just pinch your avatar?

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    Hey, Evil, drop me an email – – I want to ask you a question.

  • molecool

    No, that's not us – but we like his style.

  • tomo

    Could the 4 on your chart possibly a – ii – subwave of 3? Suggesting that we will soon hit the iii of 3 possibly on M or T as you suggest.
    Love that fork stuff. I just added it to my chart. Overlaps my Standard Deviation Channel nicely.

  • molecool

    Done – who did I offend this time?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Yes, it would not shock me if it were manipulated up to take out some stops and then it's like Demon Drop from Cedar Point. DOWN.

  • toad37

    Anyone shorting yet? Buying puts etc?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Wow…I really like GILD. I may start stocking up on this 1 contract at a time, buying one more at a time if it keeps rallying.
    I'm looking at the JAN 09 45 puts currently at 3.4 x 3.6 — I hope you don't think me a leech mole…I've posted my share of ideas. And the best I had to offer…MHS, SHLD, and XOM don't have as nice a setup as GILD.
    Anyone have any thoughts?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    See my post above…I'm seriously considering GILD one contract at a time over the next few days.

  • molecool
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I took small nibbles in POT, BG, BIDU, GOOG and PBR this AM. Waiting for MA to get where I would chomp on it. No folks, I am not loading up…I am nibbling.

    Skål!

  • toad37

    I like your style, I plan on nibbling but I have a little bit of the deer in headlight thing going on.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I meant on an intraday timeframe, and on any subsequent upward movement after the House vote. And I just got filled…

    BOT +1 GILD JAN 09 45 put @ $3.50 (bid/ask 3.30 x 3.60)

    I'm gonna take this one slow…hence, why I didn't buy 5 contracts right off the bat.

  • Archangel

    I tried but couldn't get hold of it. This goldman list of hedge funds' top holdings is the list to short. Rumours are 100bln redemptions until year-end ( x leverage). And hedgies going against the others' holdings…

  • toad37

    Hope that works for you my man… good luck. I'm making my shopping list right now.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Thanks…Here's the intraday 1-minute chart, although I usually try and intraday trade off a 5-minute chart.  GILD is just above R2 but in the 15 minutes or so following my fill it began making lower highs and lows.  We'll see how long that lasts.  If GILD continues to go up, I will add to the position…which is what I'm hoping actually.  Otherwise if it just tanks from here, I'll ride it as far down as I can and add to the position as I profit so that I can at least take part or all of my position off at a breakeven.

    http://screencast.com/t/k96NtLSPkr

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Ditto…I am nibbling. I will add if GILD rallies as part of the bailout approval, or if it starts to show some weakness. But I will add to it very cautiously and conservatively.
    I've heard it said from one much MUCH smarter than I…be very picky about how you get into a trade, cuz you might not have luxury of being picky when you need to get out!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I got everything I wanted except MA…which I still bit, just didn't get the price I was looking for. So far so good.

    Though unless we keep falling, we could get a TOMO/POMO rally. I mean, it IS Friday. We'll all know soon enough.

    Skål!

  • toad37

    I bought some puts on Capital One.

  • C.C. Rider

    Slow moving train wreck here.Waiting for the downward momentum to pickup below 10500.Could get our first Vix 50 print.

  • tomo

    Waiting for dust to settle. The Dow just retraced 100 pts in 4 min!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The only Financial I have played recently (Besides MA which isn't on the financial no-short list) is C. Which I bought yesterday, and sold this morning. Hard to complain boaut 100% in a day.

    Hope COF works for ya.

    Skål!

  • toad37

    100% in a day? Yeehaw! Nice job Berk!!

  • molecool

    Berk and I are backing up the truck. I don't care what this market does today or tomorrow. I want in and that now.

  • C.C. Rider

    Go ahead and pay up.It only gets more expensive from here on the puts!!

  • C.C. Rider

    Dow resistance 10624, support 10496.My guess is with 90 minutes to go the longs give it up.

  • toad37

    loaded up on IWM puts (Russell 2000 Index)

  • toad37

    I'm with you bro… loading up now.

  • tomo

    Also in IWM puts. Just got in on the bounce.

  • tomo

    Great call BTW. I saw a continuation triangle forming up but the mkt didn't wait to complete it and left me behind!

  • toad37

    PPT digging in DEEP here…. homo's.

  • C.C. Rider

    Looking for a 10-4 good buddy close!!10400 is something the bulls could hang their hat on as a higher low, and out of the woods so to speak.The walls come tumbling down next week.

  • tomo

    CDS auction on Monday. I'm thinking this will be a swing trade and adding more puts whenever it pulls up. The IWM trend is just so ugly. How do small caps fare in depressions? Hmmm…

  • tomo

    My oscillators have just BEGUN to go ugly. Sure there might be a bounce on Monday but I'm in for the w/e at least.

  • Rick

    loving TWM…
    Also SMN and QID…. for us non-option traders.

  • molecool

    Tomo-san – frankly, at this point I don't care about bounces anymore. Remember the weekly chart I posted a little back. This bailout wasn't even good for a rally – it barely kept the market from crashing. It's on now – I'm buying anything with a symbol and an entry.

  • molecool

    Congrats – you made some money! :-)

  • molecool

    You have no idea – should see this kid in action. I don't know a better trader, frankly.

  • toad37

    we both did, thanks Mole!!

  • toad37

    That's great… awesome that Berk and you share your ideas too. Many thanks guys… I love this site.

  • JIGSAW

    I bought some TOL & BIDU puts. Doing great today

  • benji12

    made a lot of coin thanks to you, Mole. Loaded up on some puts (BIDU, IWM, COP, BG, ENER) before I left for lunch and came backwith my account looking mighty splendid. Of course i'm scared of a big bounce on Monday, but the way things are going, any pop seems short lived.

    If monday pops up, you loading up on more, Mole? How do you think the mkts will react to a rate cut?

  • toad37

    nice job… let's hope the fun continues Monday… I held all my puts.

  • RPinSC

    Hey evil, thanks for PBR…Got a 41% this afternoon. Take the wife to dinner.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Crash next week?

    Larry Pesavanto says we might do 1500 to 2000 points down in the DJIA next week (first 4 days) because he says during the first 4 days next week there is an astro aspect that is almost identical to the one that existed during the great panic of 1837 ( a severe banking panic that was followed by a 4 year depression )

    http://yorbatv.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2

    http://yorbatv.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2

  • T.B. Aurelius

    “Who's wife?”
    Would say evil turtle…

  • RPinSC

    Whomever would like to go, and whomever would like to buy…
    That probably leaves me taking my wife—she is so lucky!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hey kid.
    This grandpa ain't too shabby either…;-)

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Just curious with the VIX raging out of control, which strike/exp did you trade?

    Nice job.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Mole, which city do you live in?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Held my nerve today. Backed a drop after the decision as everyone seemed to be bullish and the House all seemed to think that their decision had saved the World. Paulson worries me though, he simply can't let this fail otherwise he'll become the sacrificial lamb. I guess we should expect the “Tilt” button to get a severe workout. I hope the market is a stronger beast than Paulsons Pumping Pimps. I read today that he's already got the skeleton PPP team selected and on the payroll; so he knew he could buy off the Senate and the House. How good do the swingers feel now after that drop – they'll all be praying before bed tonight.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Here is my report from the front lines. After much hoo-hah about which issue to trade (I was looking at MHS, XOM, and GILD [which I believe molecool had posted]), I had to submit to mole's khan-like genetically-engineered superior intellect by selecting a Jan 45 put…it simply had the best setup (although I will highlight that, looking at intraday 1-minute charts for each, had I place a similar trade at the exact same time on either MHS or especially XOM, I'd be sitting on an even bigger profit right now…*ahem*).

    http://screencast.com/t/8bAUDjishyr

    Nevertheless, now that I've gotten into positive territory, I plan on adding to this position 1 contract at a time at the various swing highs. My real question is, should I add to my existing position, or should I add another position similar to the one I put on (at the time I put the trade on, it was the first strike OTM)?
    I welcome any thoughts.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    What is an astro-cycle? If he's talking about the market aligning itself with the planets and stars, I'll have to respectfully bow out of this one.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Buying? Do you mean buying puts?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Mole, brutha…when you say, “backing up the truck” — help me out with this hip inter-net lingo. Is that slang for, “I'm grabbing all the puts I can” or, “I'm dumping everything and going to cash.” You're confusing me.

    I'm expecting somewhat of a bounce on Monday, after which, I shall expand my EMPIRE of 1 put. I'm wishing I would have done what toad37 did…bought a single put on all three of the stocks I've been looking to play (GILD, XOM, and MHS). Hopefully I'm correct on that bounce thing and I'll be given another good entry.

    Hey, and by the way, THANK YOU for your time and effort (and the aforementioned Khan-like genetically-engineered superior intellect).

  • Ukla the Mokk

    It is absolutely shocking to look at $RVX. I hope you make a killing.

  • C.C. Rider

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?FFH
    Way overbought, technicals rolling over, near term target $250, on a crash $180.Will be on a sell signal on a close below $305.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?COF
    Same story, target $24

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ZOLT
    Target $8

    Next support is Dow 10100, then 8900.I think 8900 w/b the crash level target.

    Cheers

  • molecool

    “Nevertheless, now that I've gotten into positive territory, I plan on adding to this position 1 contract at a time at the various swing highs”

    That's the way to do it – but don't exceed 4-5 units. Good show Ukla – check those tech picks btw – they are bound to produce a lot of coin as they keep moving down. It's worth the extra $$ you pay for expensive options – for instance for GOOG and BIDU you can go a few strikes OTM to make them affordable. Once they move they start producing nicely (of course they also sting more if they go against you).

    I'm really glad to see you so devoted to this – focus on the goal – $25k! 😉 And phase out emotions like greed and fear – trade like f…ing robot and stick with your system. Some people today seemed to be like a deer stuck in the headlines when the market didn't rally up. You didn't hesitate though it seems – although I would encourage you to do your homework BEFORE the market moves. This way you are ready to strike the second the opportunity presents itself. Let those trades come to YOU and then hit them out of the park, Tim Knight style.

    Cheers + have a good weekend.

  • molecool

    Meh – don't worry about all that – that's just noise buddy. Just look at the market – it tells you where it wants to go. Glad you kept your nerve and pulled the trigger. Many people can't do that and beyond intelligence and experience in the end that's what it all boils down to: Can you pull the trigger when an opportunity presents itself. You did – so, feel good about yourself – no matter where the market moves on Monday, you did the right thing. Just know your risk 😉

  • molecool

    “Crash next week?”

    I f…ing hope so!! :-) As long as I have enough time to grab enough contracts.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Thank you for the words of encouragement.  That means a lot.  And I'm equally encouraged that you remember my goal of $25K.  I'm gonna have to make 400% to get there and there is not a shred of doubt that I will get there…and with this crowd on Evil Speculator (EEE-vihl…as if from the froo-its of the de-vihl) I will hopefully realize my goal in a fraction of the time. 
    And by the way, if I trade literally like a “f…ing robot” I'm gonna need oil for my crank.

  • molecool

    Trust me, Ukla – you don't want to dismiss this stuff – it SOUNDS esoteric, but it is not what you think. I have the book outlining the basic concept and so far it's been spot on.

    Remember, you never judge a book by its cover. Although I do agree that this methodology needs a PR workover.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    WOW…I like LLL! Check out the stochastics divergence!
    BTW…when do you use stochastics and when do you use MACD? I was originally taught to use stochastics in a sideways issue and MACD on a trending issue. But I have since gone exclusively to MACD almost for the sole purpose of searching for divergences or convergences in various timeframes.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Hey, check out my response to tomo just above your post.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Interpret this how you want, but I hope the market gets the same treatment…

    http://www.break.com/pictures/bearhandled582932

  • SierraSeller

    Molecool: Nice pick on ENER yesterday -My Nov 65/85 call credit spread went profitable, looks good.

  • toad37

    excellent Ukla, thanks for the thoughts. Makes me feel a little more comfortable that I held over the weekend. ;0)

  • tomo

    This is the Goldilocks moment – everything is just right.
    Its all campaign and sushi at my place tonight.
    I am dying to read the next post by Berk & Mole. Its killing me. Never disappoints.
    Thanks for running a great site guys. Truly amazing.
    New avatar for the w/e while we party in the attic.
    Best.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    H&S on ZOLT?
    http://screencast.com/t/9woaxlQ66
    COF is good but I absolutely hate wide spreads. Maybe I need to get over it, but ATM puts are a $0.50 spread. I shoot for $0.30 at max. I know that I may be asking too much for something like that in this market. FFH is too expensive for my blood. Even for far OTM puts.
    I think of the three, COF looks most favorable. Best of luck with these!!

  • Ukla the Mokk

    BTW…what prompted you to say, “do your homework BEFORE the market moves” — I realize that I don't have a full trading system when it comes to long puts and calls. I just have a really good idea of how I want to do a lot of things. But I don't know what I don't know.

    Also, as for your tech picks…I gotta admit that pride prohibits me from just taking someone's pick and just running with it (despite me eventually going with your GILD pick). Maybe I need to dismiss pride and look at one of your picks as objectively as a random analysis of any of the issues in my list of usual suspects.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Don't be too excited…could be the blind leading the blind. :)  I just know that I bought Jan puts for a reason, cuz I'm gonna hold them if we rally from here and add more at a discount so that when we tank (and I think it's a foregone conclusion we will) then I will sell at a profit of course.  Then I shall buy an island with my profits.  Maybe Hawaii.

  • tomo

    You are one cool dude.
    Let's just remember Money Management.
    You always have to be able to take a few major hits and still be able to make a comeback.
    I talk like this only to remind myself… LOL!!!!

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I've asked this before, but I want to get a “re-consensus.” Has anyone here thought of the possibility that the market does NOT crash, but rather just rallies and pulls back a little and rallies and pulls back a little until, next thing ya know, we're in *gulp* a bull market?

    Again, I go back to my opinion that the market tends to behave in a manner that surprises the most people possible. So if everyone is thinking the market is gonna tank…SURPRISE! And that would suck.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    tomo, I agree with you bro. I literally watch this site real-time. I wish I could figure out how to get some kind of pop-up notifier when a new post or comment (or both) has been made to this site. But I don't think such a thing exists.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    LOL
    The “Tilt” button.

  • tomo

    Shampaign… Campinge… Shimpinge…

    Sparkling Wine. We're Drinking Sparkling Wine.

  • BigHouse

    In terms of Elliott Waves the 3rd wave down does not have to be a straight shot down. This came from Steve Hochberg Elliott Wave International. “This decline will not be a straight line lower; there will be countertrend rallies and some will be quite violent. But the market’s main trend remains down and that’s why we remain positioned in a bearish stance toward the stock market”. That was on Sept 29 Short term Update.

  • toad37

    Berk and Mole, out of curiosity, did you go with November and December puts? I was just wondering if you went with any Octobers? After reading McHugh tonight, I think I may go into some Octobers on Monday or Tuesday. I'm in Novembers now fwiw.

  • BigHouse

    Their has been talk of the strong $ lately. Here is what Steve Hochberg Elliott Wave International said in tonights update. You can take it for what its worth. “Wave 5 in the [U.S. Dollar Index] carried to 80.93 today, which is still a bit shy of the cited target range of 81.66-81.87. While it’s certainly possible that prices will carry to, or above this target, dollar bulls need to be alert because there is currently a significant bearish divergence between the fifth wave and third wave, via the Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the above chart. This configuration suggests that the dollar is at the forefront of a significant pullback. If so, first support surrounds the 79.00 level. Looking at the larger picture, the five-wave advance from the March low indicates that the one larger degree trend is now up. This means that once this pullback is complete, the dollar should rally strongly to new highs”. Gold could be a good play here.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Osake o do~ ka?
    Anata no namae wa Tomoya des kka?

  • tomo

    This third wave will extend… and the third subwave within this third wave will extend… and we'll be selling all the counter-trend rallies all the way down. Bring on the violence. (IMHO, Steve-O is a class act)

  • tomo

    Watatshi wa antata no TOMOdachi desu. Yoroshiku onegai shimasu.
    Or as Mole suggested” TOMO: Temporary Open Market Operations. hahhahahhaha

  • BigHouse

    You could be right but be careful, the Fed and all the boys accross the world could come out and cock block shorts at anytime with a world wide rate cut. Thats why i have a long postion in the UYG(god thats taking in alot of water). I might be short alot of things, but its good to have a long just incase of surprises. Wonder if Monday morning before the bell will be such a surprise?

  • tomo

    The fools have banned most of the shorts preventing a major short squeeze.
    Rates don't really matter – counter-party creditworthiness does. But mostly Banks are hording cash to meet their upcoming CDS obligations. IMHO.
    Indeed the PPT has a few more arrows in the quiver, but we have had two sell-the-news rallies. The Government and media have fed the environment of fear – enhancing what they tried to avoid. In this environment , imagine the redemptions the fund managers are receiving. Fund managers are desperate for any rally to sell stock into. They have a lot to unload. This bus is going downtown – Express.
    Note the CDS auction on Monday. That is going to create a lot of scary press with the potential for more bank failures.
    I'm only 10% in but wishing I went with 20. I'm undecided whether to just keep adding or whether to play the oscillations on the way down. I'm very much open to suggestion and looking forward to Berk & Mole's next post. Looking at IWM, which is a total boat anchor, I'm inclined just to add.
    Again, I'm very much open to suggestion and respectful of your opinion – especially since you seem to understand the wave principle.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    OK…it's 12:30am and I just went through every single stock on my list of usual suspects and came out with about 22 that either look good, or will look good if we have a rally or upward movement. So, because I know every single one of you hang on my every comment, I'm going to whittle that list down to 5 or 6 tomorrow and post what I think (in the world according to “me”) will be great put plays. I encourage you all to rip my analysis to shreds. It's the only way I'm gonna get better. But in the meantime, I'm going to bed, and I'd like to thank molecool and Berk for the kickassest blog on the web.
    This is exactly what I needed.

  • molecool

    “I gotta admit that pride prohibits me from just taking someone's pick and just running with it”

    Replace 'pride' with 'common sense' and you're on to something.

  • molecool

    “Ben gave me a pretty close shave on the 18th.”

    You're not alone, brother, you're not alone…

  • StoneDog

    Nice work all. Im still a newb and my account is up 36% in the last 2 days. Im 80% cash too.

  • malusDiaz

    Thanks for the links btw Mokk! More importantly is the Wave 3 info, I'm playing lots of catchup in a game already started.

    So there's movement in the waves of waves right? And the buildup and overlap of the waves is whats key to movement up & down…

    And if you had to pick something to model the market on a moment to moment basis you would have pieces smaller then Elliott,
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/28230564@N06/29108

    9 movements, highly unpredictable, 3 start & 3 final states, but if you had weighted data, say a larger wave theory (1-5) to help bias predictions.

    But seriously, a data structure to represent movement, and then generate the best “guess” algorithm with sets of real data.

    mmm delicious LISP!

  • http://www.retracementlevels.blogspot.com 2SWTrading

    a great video for these times…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CNBealx6jY

    and it's the german version because it's better than the english one…

  • beezlbud

    Well, between you and the slope I have to say you are one of the two most provocative blogs on trading. Your TA is surprisingly refreshing and your humor is even better. I am up 300% in 3 weeks after finally taking a vesting interest in options in the past year. The first 6 months were brutal learning and recovering my IRA from a “managed” fund. Now I use TA and the community you all provide and I will say brilliant.

    keep if up berk & mole you are both great.

    ta,

    JMT

  • beezlbud

    ENER, up 4k for me today….great call.

  • beezlbud

    loaded to the gills…….if anything expect the unexpected and I think we are going down hard

  • beezlbud

    yes he means puts! going down.

  • beezlbud

    haven't you posted that on multiple blogs and nothing happened? I think when you posted this on the slope the market lost 100 points 20 minutes later?

  • malusDiaz

    I needed that! …

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hehe..
    Tomodachi des kka..Daijobu~
    Dozo Yoroshikku!

  • Fergie

    You've got some great picks here Molecool. Planning on putting a long bearish diagonal on a couple of the tickers that have hit the 23.6 Fib, but have much further to drop. You may find that diagonals will supercharge your returns as opposed to just buying a put and riding it down.

  • http://blog.donnaklinenow.com Donna

    Greetings, Gentlemen. This is an excellent blog and I enjoy the devilish commentary. To avoid being classified as a 'leech' I simply had to post a comment on the eve a most momentous week. My trading style is a bit diferent than y'alls (due to regulations at my husband's work) but I am a day trader at heart. Rather than copy and paste volumes of info, please refer to my blog at: http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com to see what 'evil deeds' I have been up to. At the very least, please read my post titled: 'Bear Trap?' which discusses the problems at the ECB. Quite dire indeed. PS I have posted one chart from this site (the Paskastani stock market) and given you full credit, of course. Thank you for posting. I hope my site will add some value to your trading success! Donna

  • Ukla the Mokk
  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Before you dismiss astro cycles ask yourself these questions:
    Why DAY is 24 hour but not 32 or 15? Why woman has a period every 28-29 days?

    also a good read
    Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper No. 2003-5b
    Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market
    http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305b.pdf

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Does anyone know how to import a list of tickers into the TOS based Prophet charts without having to enter each one manually??

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    >Again, I go back to my opinion that the market tends to behave in a manner that surprises the most people possible. So if everyone is thinking the market is gonna tank…SURPRISE!

    We call it Sentiment :) if it goes one extreme or the other – we get jumps in opposite direction.
    CPC and ISEE is good indicators for that

  • molecool

    Los Angeles – you?

  • molecool

    REKOGNIZE!!!

  • molecool

    I think we spoil you guys way too much 😉

  • molecool

    1+ for picking the top – maybe there's hope for you just yet.

  • molecool

    You couldn't get hold of 'what'?

  • molecool

    Yup, the small caps seem to just fall apart. Any good trades in that group (besides IWM puts)?

  • molecool

    I think that's toad's tag line.

  • molecool

    Yes I am long puts. Sorry, should have made that clear.

  • molecool

    Hope you showed here a nice time. Smart move to share the spoils your wife – keep her on your good side for those whipsaw days.

  • molecool

    Good stuff – thanks for sharing.

  • toad37

    well excuuuuuse me!!!

  • toad37

    The PPT can dig in deep and the market can still go down asshole.

  • toad37

    Gumbo, I bought COF November 40 puts at $4.10, by the end of the day it had moved in my favor pretty good.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    ATL with Berk. Good guy as you know. We had the chance to meet over lunch awhile back. Since you 'watched him trade,' I wasn't sure if you were here too.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Buffett sells first!

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s top four executives agreed to hold on to 90 percent of the stock they own in the company as part of Goldman's agreement to raise money from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

    The accord prevents the executives, their families and their estates from selling more than 10 percent of the common stock they own until Oct. 1, 2011, or until Berkshire redeems its $5 billion in preferred stock, whichever comes soonest.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Berk, Mole, just a small complaint
    When number of user messages gets to 100+ it takes like 30 sec to refresh the page.
    I understand it's DISQUS's problem, but maybe you can do something about it
    Thanks

  • Gumbo YaYa

    FMS, just switch to Firefox for your browser. MUCH faster than IE by far. Made a big difference for me.

  • molecool

    The MACD is calculated by subtracting two *EMAs*. The stochastic is calculated on *price* within a specific period for the %K line and then smoothed to arrive at the %D line (and the %K (fast) becomes the %D (slow)) . Think about that for a second. One based on a divergence/convergence of moving averages (e.g how the interact with each other), the latter on the progression of price in a particular period.

    It seems obvious that a *trend* can be identified by following the movement of an underlying against its moving average(s). Momentum however can occur within a trend and the stochastic indicator is serving me well in that respect. MACD seems to be very accurate when it comes to identifying medium/long term trend, however as a student of EWT I can look at a chart and tell you in most cases the direction of a trend.

    Price in the end is the ultimate indicator, and Berk and I use simple price movements to determine trends and act accordingly. At this very point in time things have been a bit chaotic and trend trading has been put on the backburner as of now. However, in a few months, once we see a trend unfolding (not a crash situation), we will go back to picking trend trades. As a matter of fact we are planning to get this community involved in trend trading, perhaps we will even start a special service for people who are interested.

  • http://www.for-really.blogspot.com Typically Pathetic Cubs

    It is a life changer, really.

  • C.C. Rider

    CHOKETIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.for-really.blogspot.com Typically Pathetic Cubs

    Does this mean I can ask questions about charts AND cramps here?

    Sweet ass.

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    It's bad enough that your blog is good enough to attract traffic, but now you've stolen Jana away. Bastard!

  • molecool

    You can buy me a drink when it hits 32.5 😉

  • molecool

    Both of you go back to my weekly chart I posted a little while back – then tell me what you see.

  • molecool

    Yes, Octobers – Nov/Dec is unaffordable right now – IV is simply too high. Another reason I want to get into the market now is that Oct options only have 13 days left. However, I expect a LOT of action to happen before expiration, so the timing seems to be fine to participate at least in 80% of this drop.

  • molecool

    I appreciate your input but the STU is subscribers only – please only post free information here. I would like to stay on good terms with Steven and the rest of the crew at EWI. I'm sure you understand…

  • molecool

    “I encourage you all to rip my analysis to shreds.”

    [cracks knuckles] bring it on!

  • molecool

    I LOVE Rammstein – have every single album. No surprise since I was born in Germany….

  • molecool

    Wow, thanks so much beezlbud – I'm glad you find some value in our postings.

    Now send me a bribe before I kick your ass out of here.

    (j/k)

  • BigHouse

    I hear ya .

  • molecool

    Ugh, I can't believe that they didn't add such a simple feature into TOS (or Prophet). I mean, I could write an XML import feature in a day or less. Will have to bug Tim about it. Even better, I would love to be able to disseminate watch lists via an RSS feed straight into TOS. Their API is supposed to come out any day, so perhaps I'll take a whack at it myself (used to be a hardcore coder).

  • molecool

    Jana hasn't posted here in quite a while. What makes you say that?

    Tim, I'm sure everyone is extremely loyal to the SOH – we're merely playing second fiddle to your work. I mean, when I post I'm happy to get the amount of comments in a day that you get in the first 5 minutes 😉

  • molecool

    Sorry Serg – I'll post the weekend update soon. Just need a day off – it's been exhausting lately.

  • C.C. Rider

    Tim, I'm sure everyone is extremely loyal to the SOH – we're merely playing second fiddle to your work.
    =====================
    It's hard to be loyal when you've been BANNED!!!

    Don't worry Timmo, we'll watch Jana for ya.She's in our dog pound now, go sniff your own backyard!

  • molecool

    Be nice now – Tim is a friend of the blog.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    do you have an option to break messages into pages? say 20 messages per page?
    Microsoft's live.com uses pages – it's much faster

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    tried Firefox 2 years ago – didn't like it.

    I love my IE – I'm an antivirus freak and IE allows me to setup security for ActiveX, scripts, frames etc
    Last time I checked(2 years ago) FF did not have anything close to that!

  • tradertom

    Maybe you should try Safari then.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Fellow evildoers, read the last two paragraphs of this article. It shines light on yet another reason why banning short sales is not only stupid, but can actually exacerbate the problem you're trying to solve.

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/03/news/companies/

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Firefox has changed for the better my friend. And the add-ons that you can use are second to none. I get no popups, no ads whatsoever, no Flash or Adobe scripts that load first before the rest of the page. It is a beautiful thing.

  • tomo

    Hope you bought puts on Friday.
    Me, I should have been faster on the trigger.
    I hate limit orders but with $0.10 bid/ask spreads what can you do?

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    http://www.nyse.com/press/1222772891771.html

    Fourth-Quarter 2008 Circuit-Breaker Levels

    Level 1 Halt
    A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.

    Level 2 Halt
    A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.

    Level 3 Halt
    A 3,350-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.

  • tomo

    My aren't we bearish!
    Point Up.
    That's timely and useful.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Hi all. Man, I understand what molecool and Berk go through by posting the TA (not T ‘n A). I had a list of about 20 stocks and the hardest part was whittling the list down to size. In the end, I was able to bring it down only by about half. So, fuck it. I’m gonna “gang load” and offer a brief shpeal on each. It is worth mentioning that I REALLY like the setups that MIL, LLL, and BIDU have…but I’m not going to add TA on top of their TA already. As I indicated earlier, please rip my TA (which is by now means exhaustive since I’m only showing one chart of each issue) to shreds. It’ll only help you and it will only help me in return. Enjoy!

    CEPH – http://screencast.com/t/Fllyt6i8
    CMI – http://screencast.com/t/ri581OWr
    DRYS – http://screencast.com/t/ssT4uFAMw
    FSLR – http://screencast.com/t/cynSRuhg6
    FWLT – http://screencast.com/t/ufDLtN8Hkt
    ICE – http://screencast.com/t/ZNdyO8s3vVs
    ILMN – http://screencast.com/t/90YV9gRDxbb
    MHS – http://screencast.com/t/Zz8daLyb
    POT – http://screencast.com/t/g2KollDO

    Please note that I also checked the options chains to weed out ridiculous bid/ask spreads. This list isn’t perfect, but it will hopefully provide some good ideas.
    Oh, and if mole/Berk post a “comment cleaner” thread, I may repost this there. mole/Berk, let me know if that is a dick move. :)

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Not on IWM. I have a whopping one-lot of Jan puts on GILD that is up $0.50 (which is normally when I exit a trade…but I'm learning to let profits ride and this is a longer-term trade; and I shall add to this position strategically as GILD moves.

  • molecool

    I'm working on the weekend post and will post it Sunday early afternoon. Be patient folks, it'll be worth it – exciting times are upon us.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.blogspot.com 2SWTrading

    Besides clapping hands to molecool and berkshire for their always in-deep analysis of the market, and for creating IMO one of the best financial blogs on the net, I appreciate also the quality of the discourse/comments here.

    It seems to me Evil's Forum it's on a much much higher level than some other fianncial disqus forums I have seen around…

    Bravo guys, bravo.

  • biribiri

    Tim Knight,

    wipe your feet clean before getting into Evil Speculator's house or you'll spread around all your “neds” and downvoting scripts like a leper…

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Perhaps it's just a result of the week from hell, but I had a dream last night that the DJIA was down 4118 points tomorrow. So odd…. heh.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Grabbed C 20s on 10/2 – Sold 10/3 @ 100%
    FSLR 160s on 10/2 – Sold 10/3 @ 110%
    BIDU 200s (9/29-9/30) – Sold @ 35% average

    On average I am paying around Twice as much for the options that I used to buy. I am trying to get closer to ATM options on stocks that move on average 2-3 strikes a day. If you get good intra-day break-out entries, hitting 50% gains is not hard. Then you get some CFs, CCJs, OIs, or LVSs.

    To me the GAME has not changed. The rules are fluctuated a little, so I must be more careful about WHAT I trade, not HOW I trade.

    Hope you are doing well also my friend.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Tim,

    Neither one of us would ever admit we are anything CLOSE to ugly…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The best way I know is the reverse. If you set a TOS chart to blue and the trade tab to blue (or any color), when you select trade now from Prophet it will but the prophet into TOS and Trade tab. Works well if you have two monitors and like TOS charts.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not that we don't mind her presence, but we wouldn't steal her from you… 😉 Maybe Beanie has kidnapped her because I haven't seen her around here since CME untied itself and walked out on us. Quite a disappointment to both of us.

    Jana….where are you??

    Skål!

  • http://www.for-really.blogspot.com Typically Pathetic Cubs

    I'm here and I posted a couple times already on this thread. Jeez, peeps.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    The top 1 percent of American earners now take home about 20 percent of total national income. In 1980, the top 1 percent took home just 8 percent. Inequality on this scale is bad for many reasons, but it is also bad for the economy.

    The last time the top 1 percent took home 20 percent of total income was 1928. After that, the economy caved in.

    Americans turned to a second coping mechanism – working more hours. Americans have became veritable workaholics, putting in 350 more hours a year than the average European, more even than the notoriously industrious Japanese.

    But there's also a limit to how many hours Americans can work. So we turned to a third way of coping. We began to borrow. With housing prices rising briskly through the 1990s and even faster this decade, we turned our homes into piggy banks.

    It would be a sad irony if the Wall Street bailout robs us of the resources we need to invest in average Americans and rebuild America from the bottom up.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/

  • molecool

    LOL – at least I'm not the only one who's dreaming about trading.

    1+

  • molecool

    Less praise – more bribes, please!! 😉

  • molecool

    That's a relief – I thought I had to come and bail you out again.

  • Archangel

    Very insightful – thanks for posting.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.blogspot.com 2SWTrading

    I can give you a kick(inthe)back, if you want!!!

    skooollll!!!!
    😉

  • Rick

    This is one of the great blogs.
    DRYS explained – http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_balt

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • molecool

    Hehe – that's the spirit :-)

  • gagelle

    Thanks again molecool. Hopefully, I can hold my positions overnight without damage.

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    I want to get into the market now is that Oct options only have 13 days left. However, I expect a LOT of action to happen before expiration.I’m waiting for tonights comments on direction. The symetrical triangle broke out in both directions confusing the hell out of this novice. I’m new to trading but have had some good success from this site. I trade the SDS and SSO etfs.

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