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Intra-Day Update: No Silver Spoon
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Intra-Day Update: No Silver Spoon

by The MoleDecember 16, 2008

UPDATE 10:31am EST: Silver breached 10.73, so Berk and I cut our PAAS positions – this was our line in the sand. Instead however we grabbed some XLE:

I think you can see what the thinking process is here. Frankly, I don’t care about the rate cut – buy the rumor, sell the news. VERY defensible position here and if it breaches I’ll turn my coat from red to green.

UPDATE 10:48am EST: BIDU looks also very delicous – might turn into a nice island top pattern – who knows. It’s heavily overbought, so watch this sucker.

UPDATE 11:03am EST: Let’s not forget that the Fed announcement will be at 2:15pm EST. Expect some some volatility around that time.

UPDATE 1:53pm EST: Boring day so far – we’re pretty much stuck at the 886 short RL. I expect some kind of fireworks at 2:15pm – not much longer.

I have been coding my butt off since yesterday and am getting very close with the ZI-RL. It’s already showing me a signal on my test chart – yaaaay!!! However, I’m still thinking about the best way to visualize this. Problem is that RLs change every day – so if I just remove the ZI VTA lines if I expect a block then tomorrow most likely it will show that VTA on the chart again once I update the RLs. That’ll confuse a lot of people when back testing – so, I was thinking of painting the lines on the upper chart and maybe make them full lines if the algorithm expects them to hold and dashed lines if I expect them to be breached. This way we can time our entries better. This will not help with historical data obviously as we won’t know when exactly we took our entry (right at the beginning of the VTA or after the RL was breached). And we will continue to see trade alerts even if we didn’t take them due to an RL warning. But that’s something I would need to re-implement on a different (and more sophisticated) platform but at least we get even better entries this way.

UPDATE 2:22pm EST: Target Federal Funds Rate: 0 – 1/4 percent. As I’ve been saying – the Feds don’t make the rate – they are following the market. BTW, the effective FFR has been around 0.2% anyway – makes no difference. But this kabuki theater makes the mouth breathers (like jjjjjj) happy.

UPDATE 3:23pm EST: Are you guys watching the Zero chart? My predictions so far based on the ZI-RL I’m looking at right now have been spot on. I’m adding comments to the screen grab feed to give you an idea of where we are. The 911 short RL has a 91% probability – based on my research we need a minimum of a 6.0 signal on the Zero to bust through it.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Insect Overlord
  • Insect Overlord

    mole/berk, I checked out XLE (which I don't look at often) and I had a price level drawn on there from a long time ago. So I zoomed out to a 5yr weekly had to chuckle…I think your puts on XLE are well-founded…

    http://screencast.com/t/EeliwNWblx

  • molecool

    Gold might hit 860 or 880.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I know there are alot of triangle patters out there in terms of stocks…but remember the euro was tracing out a nice triangle from late Oct into Dec. Everone thought that it would break to the downside. Surprise it didn't. Sometimes what is obvious is not.

    http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp

  • molecool

    So what? That's the nice thing about triangles – you have a line in the sand that's clear. You break it you were wrong – next.

  • molecool

    Didn't even look that far out – love it!!! Very nice chart.

    2+

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, that is another reason to MAKE SURE your triangle is actually a triangle. Barrier formations, and converging resistance lines do not make it a triangle. A specific pattern must unfold also.

    As you have seen, this recent action is tough to count, as a triangle should be. More often than not, when people call it a triangle, it is not.

    Skål!

  • Insect Overlord

    And I'm in on XLE too.

  • geckoman

    Anyone want to throw out a favorite long. I am a little more short than I want to be here and want to balance things out in my option account.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    DLTR is in something of an ascending triangle. Either way though (triangle or not) it is pushing on 52-week highs. Looks like a good long to me.

    Skål!

  • Insect Overlord

    ADM

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Plenty of biotechs are looking good; ALO, BRL, CEPH.

    LHCG and INSU look good also… That should be something to chew on.

    Skål!

  • Insect Overlord

    Funny you mention biotech. If CELG breaks above $50, that would be a good long.

    http://screencast.com/t/d2OYRwvFO

  • JWBlack

    How about stocks that have been thrashed by the market but now show heavy insider buying?

    ANDE, BNE, GTLS, MDR, PPO, etc?

  • JWBlack

    That is quite a spike in the 30-minute line on the ZI.

  • geckoman

    I appreciate all the ideas. My requirements were they need to liquid, the options need to reasonable spreads and the chart must be above some sort of resistance two came up (CSCO and INTC) Who would of thought?. There were some I liked like DLTR, BIDU, ABB, CHL but spreads or liquidity was not there. I also notice that the large mutli nationals are getting bids again since the dollar has fallen. Might want to look at those later.

    Anyone have an opinion on CSCO or INTC looking at the charts?

    CSCO: http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

    INTC: http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • geckoman

    I just picked up Puts on the Q's here as they are hitting 2sweeties retracement level. I'll take the CSCO and INTC Apr calls on a pullback.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • JWBlack

    If you are worried that the market will go up, technology and other high-beta stuff in general will go up faster.

    The stuff that will really go up fast are small and midcap stocks that have been beaten down the most in the sectors that have gone down the most — materials, energy, consumer discretionary

  • standard_and_poor

    Entry on qqqq calls from this morning (9:54 cst) is looking good – keep mental stop as specified earlier.

  • geckoman

    Very true. For those plays I will ride the double or triple ETF's. This is just a option account and I tend to buy more liquid larger cap names. I think you're right though…point up.

  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective

    i thought you guys might like to hear the now universal theme song…

    tradepostings.blogspot.com

  • Chrys

    I came across a very scary scenario laid out by Tony Cherniawski on the Yelnick site. SPX is in expanding triangle. If 950 isn't taken out to the upside then we could slide to 388 or possibly 222-255.
    His chart makes sense but these days just about anything is possible.

    http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/12/bear

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    BBY up 16% on earnings, that's what I said it would do–2 days ago
    BBY up 16%, I told you so
    where's CC? saying GS to $50, better start learning those yearly EPS numbers 08/09, they totally correlate to a stock's price? My last words were ” I'm lucky though in guessing these earnings—I'm getting better though–

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    AGP has this nice little $1 channel to play on the short sell side–

  • Keirsten

    Interesting- first time I've seen a rounded top on the Z. Will be interesting to see if it holds.

  • gagelle

    Dr. Roubini sees a 20% market decline from these levels. Then he doesn't see a real bull for several years–perhaps a sideways or choppy market. But he is optimistic about Obama's stimulas plan eventually pulling the US out of the recession. (Personally, I don't have much faith in the accuracy of his market predictions.)

  • geckoman

    Tony's wrong this time as I take issue with the patterns he thinks he sometimes finds.

  • geckoman

    Taking a second look at CSCO and backing out to the long term chart reveals major resistance around 17.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • molecool

    This is why I'm working on ZI-RL – I don't think the current signal is strong enough to overcome the 8885 RL, which has a 65% probability.

  • ZigZag

    Nice Job Z! 🙂

  • Keirsten

    Roger that

  • jjjjjjj

    nice call on PAAS………..you fucking douchebags.

  • JWBlack

    ????

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree??? Damn us for putting a trade out there start to finish, with stop and target.

    Guess what got his this morning? The stop loss… If only we could win them all…

    If he was still in it, he was trading it with a different plan than Mole and I…

    Skål!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    You know how it is. YOu can never make a mistake. I wonder what he will say to Erikd if XLF goes through the roof 🙂

  • MaxPainMan

    ok, i'm getting the HELL out of whipsaw-central until 2:30ish

  • de3600

    I love it everyone on cnbc is a bull.Guess this is the new bull market>Half these investors on cnbc need to get in the real world .I think Janurary is gonna knock people out of the shoes>One company I deal with Stock sym Pool they had an awful year and expect even worse in 2009

  • de3600

    anyone holding a gun to your head to take the trade

  • Erikd

    stop on XLF is 12.30 🙂

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Hi everyone — I'm seeing a big barrier triangle forming in SPY.
    http://www.engineeringthemarket.com/uploaded_im

    I'm guessing that the original reaction to whatever the FED does will be a down move, followed by a big move up. Can anyone see an Elliott wave reason that would invalidate this?

  • molecool

    Yeah, this isn't fun. We're mostly in cash this week for so many reasons… Only open position right now is XLE and I'll probably hold that sucker for a while.

  • C'est La Vie

    I am truly grateful for all the work you and Mole do for us. It is unfortunate if others cannot utilize your methods with their own trading strategies.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yup i am watching that to. Thanks for the heads up.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We will know what we should of done come the end of Jan lol

  • molecool

    LMAO!!!

    We grabbed PAAS right at the resistance line and closed it out for a tiny loss. It's not our fault if your fat housewife's trading club doesn't grasp the basics behind setting a stop. Why don't you go back to the little rock you crawled underneath from – we've got adults trying to have a conversation over here.

  • Erikd

    make sure there is conviction over 12.30 not just whipping you out. I use mental stops BTW

  • etechpartner

    If it were my blog you wouldnt be allowed on it for using insults.

  • molecool

    ZI-RL will be even better.

  • etechpartner

    Needless to say that any modifications of the indicator should be considered a beta test. Even improvements, So dont everybody jump in and the get upset if something doesnt work out. It takes a couple days of real world usage to fine tune changes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    In the past they sold the market off before the news .Which should be now. Wonder how much of a sell off.

  • ZigZag

    Trying a short on GS. Hourly stochtastic is at the top, and the wedge pattern is still valid. Putting my stop at $80. I caught 20 points up in November, now lets see if I can get 20 points down here…

    http://tinyurl.com/6838zk

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks, we appreciate the support of those who are here, those who can read, and those that come up with thoughts independently from our own.

    It is a sorry state of affair when you can lay the whole plan down in front of someone and they still get lost…

    Again, thanks for the support, the end of the year is wearing on both Mole and I, but we continue to bust our humps. Stick with us…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    He doesn't even have a claimed profile so blocking him won't do any good. I guess trolls come with the territory…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ROFL… That is great… PBS now grooming our yungins to become technicians… ROFLMAO!!!

    Thanks for that…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    My GF mentioned that one of his other 2 postings was dealing with the Backstreet boys…

    Something tells me he either is, or has the iq of, a teenage girl… Poor guy…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    I wish I could… LOL 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I would hate for someone to be in the bathroom with the runs when the fed news comes out. 🙂

  • Keirsten

    Nice visual. ROFLMAO

  • molecool

    It wasn't a mistake. It was a trade that went against us – VERY VERY different. That is the problem with many of you – a trade goes against you despite you following your system and your TA – and you blame yourself. If you want to be right all the time, trading is not for you.

  • molecool

    THANK YOU!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Gold jumping

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Boy there is some fast trades going through the market

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Erik coming up to 12.30 on XLF. Lets see if we close over 12.30. I’m still long UYG .

  • standard_and_poor

    fed cut discount to 0.5, prbably a historical low?

  • standard_and_poor

    qqqq calls are still good, possibly raise stops.

  • geckoman

    Addding Q puts here.

  • kzhat

    the biggest thing in this statement for me wasn't the announcement of a range… it was the long term commitment and basically saying we are going to switch gears now. .25-0% so don't worry about rates… we are turning on the printing presses and will “employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.”

    that is a HUGE change in stated policy.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder where the stops are in the market. This could rage some more.

  • standard_and_poor

    usually works “short term” after rate cut .

  • ZigZag

    Looking forward to it mate. 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Here comes the sell off

  • geckoman

    That's all I am looking for. I have long SLW, GG, UNG, EEM calls and am short the Q's and WFC. Just looking to add to puts as I close out some of the SLW calls I have owned the past month.

  • de3600

    Rut at 470 fell off a cliff 463

  • MaxPainMan

    not sure how, but i'm positive today so far.
    crazy ass market.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    short NEM 39.0 and 38.0, I've been accumulating for a pullback to $32-$34

  • geckoman

    SP500 intraday moves after FOMC announcements past few years.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • de3600

    Lets put the Jim Cramer to the test he is screaming buy buy banks etc etc let all see how this works out

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I hope he is right just this once. I'm still long UYG lol

  • JWBlack

    If the market closes up hereat 895 or higher, the 2 lessons to be learned today are —

    1. Don't fight the Fed, and
    2. Don't fight the ZI

  • geckoman

    Vix hanging by it's toenails by the triangle.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • de3600

    Erick around:)

  • hiker

    IYR needs to hold the move above 35.40 to continue UP going forward

  • standard_and_poor

    Raise mental stop on qqqq calls to 29.92,basis q's, even if stooped out we'll be in green, good day.

  • de3600

    Ok fuck it i got ass whipped lets just get to 950 and get it over with

  • geckoman

    Indexes except RUT now over 50 DMA. Will it hold over the next few days?

  • b_rad

    Confluence of RL and R2 at 911, time to short

  • geckoman

    Mole your last note on the Zero is cut off. Something about “research show we need a 6.0 mimimum….”

  • Thrownaway

    His program screencaps/uploads once a minute. Wait a minute.

  • geckoman

    I see the note copied to the 03:23 blog posting.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I am sure mm are going to push it through 911 just to trigger stops If we get there towards the close.

  • MaxPainMan

    volume is still pretty light

  • b_rad

    Mole, You'd better trademark your “zero indicator”

    I think Bernanke is trying to copy you with his own Zero.

  • stealthadvisor

    Hi Mole, are you still thinking that gold will not hold at these levels?

  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective

    stay frosty, but this is deja vu, circa december 2007 post fed. no worries…yet.

    tradepostings.blogspot.com

  • de3600

    berk wave it almost dead on unreal nice jobbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Updated chart Erikd please.

  • etechpartner

    Mea Culpa. I went short at 897 and got stopped out at 911 instead of following the zero and staying positive. Thats what I get. -5% on this move. Sucks. Lesson learned.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mr Vix getting no respect today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Karhu

    That was nice – just as berk draw it. Together with Mole running one mean trend indicator I can't help but to hold some of the BGU all the way to 960 if not indicated otherwise by The Z.

    thanks & cheers,
    Karhu (Out the leathers. For now.)

  • Keirsten

    Knew you'd get your pound of flesh. 😉 Don't get greedy on us though.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    I wonder if we broke out of Erikds two month channel!?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We still need to get through 13.60 on xlf to light Erik's roof on fire.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    No .We are still in the channel.

  • geckoman

    Not such a bad move. How the hell can anyone game these rips? You can play the zero but the RL's too?

  • Erikd

    check out what happened to the perfect channel today…
    http://screencast.com/t/iRBhFYL0bic
    take a closer look at what happened in the last 2 minutes today
    http://screencast.com/t/OOSsOGmtOJ
    market makers are sydistic… comments on this please..

  • Erikd

    🙂 you have a razor sharp eye…. see above for the slow motion replay at the close of the
    “perfect 60 day channel”

  • Erikd

    look at the 60 day perfect cannel i posted above 🙂

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Erik, I got stopped out of FAZ today for a 19% gain (not bad at all). I'll be looking for another entry tomorrow.

    Uhmm… why did you raise the upper channel line? If you didn't do that then looks like we'd have a nice break, yes?

  • Erikd

    cool as a cucumber!!!

  • pimaCanyon

    too close to call. on my charts we hit and closed at the upper channel line. high 12.95, close 12.93, both are right on the line on my charts. big day tomorrow. If we don't reverse from the get-go, I'd say the bulls have won this round, although I would want a close above the line, and even a second close for real confirmation.

  • Erikd

    see above post

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    I was toasted and roasted on my NEM shorts at $39, now at $40 and maybe going to $42–After that fiasco, I decided against going short XOM at $83–
    The two sector leaders are just showing too much strength–

  • Erikd

    My channel lines are drawn to the 1 minute candle tips in the last 60 days.. see the dates I used to graph the “perfect channel” in the 60 day chart I have not moved any plot dates or channel lines….

  • gagelle

    Madoff Scam Spreads

    http://tinyurl.com/5pk562
    [Open in new window]

  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective

    any comments on these P&F chart breakouts?

    tradepostings.blogspot.com

  • T.B. Aurelius

    AAPL lost $5 on a news/rumor Jobs missing from MAC world line up…

  • jacksoo

    Hi Erik, notice that you don't use the log scale – cld you explain why? All the best.

  • Edward65

    Erikd,

    Thank you for the chart upon the XLF. Helped a lot today.
    Safe trading.

    Eddie

  • Erikd

    sharp eye… does not project lines properly when you scale down to smaller time frames and candles…

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    “Hey – did someone here order a Wave 5 down?”
    EWI should add that one to the Blue Book. It doesn't get any more textbook than that.
    (Full disclosure: Really glad that the market gave me a second chance to get into some CVX puts, but I'm thinking I might switch to XLE.)

  • etechpartner

    I appreciate your commiserating with me. Thank you. Alas, the reason I made this dumb move was purely based on emotion. If I had stuck w the Zero as it presented and not second guessed it or the strength of the move I would prob be ahead. Maybe if I had Mole's super duper new strength indicator…. On the flip side I am also not trusting my own judgment that much as a result of that silliness. If it were someone else trading I would advise them to watch the tape tomorrow for a reversal and catch that to make up the diff. I was simply too excited about this move after watching the market go nowhere for several days. Whats more I acted exactly as silly as I did about 4 weeks ago – and got the same results. History repeating itself. Although I have to say my loss this time was smaller and I know to a way better detail where and why I went wrong.

  • planetelex

    Erik, with all due respect, your analysis and charts are always fantastic but this does seem like a case of bending a trend line to fit with what you want to see. Not trying to insult your charting or analysis but this does seem to be a clear channel break on all charts that I'm drawing – what am I doing wrong here?

    http://screencast.com/t/XCZegJdAV

  • de3600

    NICE

  • Keirsten

    My two cents adjusted for deflation/inflation: We've already seen the SPX put in a bullish reversal on the P&F a few weeks ago, only to see it drop like a rock shortly thereafter. On a strict purist's note, I would want to see both price AND volume, not to mention the TRAN and hopefully UTIL moving in unison for a true change of direction. This is not to say the SPX won't ramp up beyond our expectations on low volume, because in early 2007 that's exactly what took place between March and July.

    Here's a link to a good article on the IBD stats for a true turn-around.
    http://www.investors.com/yahoofinance/2006w24/s

    Lycka till!

  • Insect Overlord

    I go back to my VIX chart. We closed just a few cents below the 50% retracement line and its low could not pierce a strong support level. So we're at a bit of a precipice. If we can't form a lower low on the VIX tomorrow and especially if we close above the 50% retracement, then the market is gearing up to drop.
    As it is I think the market is being pumped and manipulated up, so I'm not really phased that the two put positions I entered into today are well into the red. I'll load up puts as we turn.

    http://screencast.com/t/NM4cQWvXq

  • de3600

    berk i cant get over your wave count i think we are moving faster than your time line thou

  • gagelle

    I don't remember where I saw this posted but IE has a major flaw that MS has not patched. Hackers can take over your whole computer. Use Firefox if you aren't fortunate enough to have a Mac.

  • molecool

    Which wave count?

  • ZigZag

    Nothing has changed here. Gonna need a close above $920 to get me stopped out. 1,5,10,15,30 and 60 min stochatics closed at the top. Shorted heavily into the close…

    http://tinyurl.com/5dlpq5

  • TraderTamas

    Yes… this is your original trend line Erik.

  • molecool

    On the SPX the target (1020 = (3 x 11 boxes * 5) + 860) fits my EWT target of about 1000 – 1040.

    Sweet….

  • molecool

    Ahem – I think that was MY wave count – but whatever…

  • molecool

    Ahem – you might be referring to the chart I posted on November 30th:

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

    Just saying…. grumble mumble…..

  • molecool

    I still think Gold is going to 650ish – yes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Karhu

    Oops. I stand corrected.

  • Insect Overlord

    +1 I'm fairly into the red on XLE and AEM, but not enough to make me sweat. Jan options and I have little doubt that once everyone realizes that a rate cut isn't going to do shit for the economy we'll head back down. May get some fight from the bulls on a holiday rally,

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thats the graph i have on my ceiling above my bed LOL. I think i will send it to Zig Zag and Erikd for there holiday present.

  • stopsarein

    How can we distinguish the above count from the triangle ?

  • ZigZag

    🙂

  • molecool

    CLEAN THEM CUPS!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Jeeze, you are stealing a lot of my credit. 😉

    Good stuff mate.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    XLE has moved maybe a buck – right at the edge of the triangle. How can you have lost a lot of money in it?

  • molecool

    Meh – how often have I been wrong and you right? But yeah, I love to bask in my glory the few moments I get the chance 😉

  • Insect Overlord

    Entry trigger was met when it threw a doji at resistance then the next candle broke the low of that doji.  Entry was made at the open of the following candle, which is circled.  Fed buffoonery propped the market up and put me into the red.

    http://screencast.com/t/3qSEAvvAsN6

  • Erikd

    the channel you have drawn is not connected on a 60 day 2 min chart? when drawing it use dates shown and make sure log scale is turned off.move cannel ponits to outer most point on candle wick. does this help and show you what I have?

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Yeah — back to the drawing board!

  • planetelex

    Thanks for the response but I'm still confused. I am using a 60 day 2min chart and also have the log scaled turned off. I thought that with trend lines the idea was to draw them where the touched the most points. On my chart the trend line touches close to 6 times starting from back in September and I think this is how your chart was when you showed it a few days ago but on your new chart it only touches the upper side of the channel in early November and the ending point today.

    I realize that your new chart shows where an upper channel will end up if you use the exact starting points on the lower channel side but I don't think that's the point.

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Erikd, you showed a channel that was resistance for SP500. It looks like it broke out of that 2-month channel?

    Chart: http://bayimg.com/eamGcaaBi

    Are you covering your 100% short position? Thank you for taking my question.

  • Erikd

    60 day channel did break out. still 100% short

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    I am new at this, can you explain why you did not cover after breakout of the 60-day channel? I know there are no hard-and-fast rules, but I thought the channel was the key?

    Thanks Erik!

  • pimaCanyon

    similar question to Lawrence's. What would have to happen in order for you to close out your position and either go long or wait for a better short entry?

  • Erikd

    confirmation above channel, have not seen this yet

  • Erikd

    need to see a close above 896 level on a weekly close to change my intermediate bearish outlook,

  • pimaCanyon

    896, you're talking spx here, right? are you also short XLF, and if so, what would cause you to close that short position?

  • Erikd

    896 spx correct.a move above the peak of the dormer on the bighouse… which would be 13.30 close short..
    XLF http://screencast.com/t/s3EpUaHK

  • pimaCanyon

    thanks!

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Erikd, you showed a channel that was resistance for SP500. It looks like it broke out of that 2-month channel?

    Chart: http://img186.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spy5fw

    Are you covering your 100% short position? Thank you for taking my question.

  • Erikd

    60 day channel did break out. still 100% short

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    I am new at this, can you explain why you did not cover after breakout of the 60-day channel? I know there are no hard-and-fast rules, but I thought the channel was the key?

    Thanks Erik!

  • pimaCanyon

    similar question to Lawrence's. What would have to happen in order for you to close out your position and either go long or wait for a better short entry?

  • Erikd

    confirmation above channel, have not seen this yet

  • Erikd

    need to see a close above 896 level on a weekly close to change my intermediate bearish outlook,

  • pimaCanyon

    896, you're talking spx here, right? are you also short XLF, and if so, what would cause you to close that short position?

  • Erikd

    896 spx correct.a move above the peak of the dormer on the bighouse… which would be 13.30 close short..
    XLF http://screencast.com/t/s3EpUaHK

  • pimaCanyon

    thanks!