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Intra-Day Update: Bearish Omen
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Intra-Day Update: Bearish Omen

by The MoleDecember 9, 2008

UPDATE 10:00am PST: Morning steel rats! We are getting closer to shorting the heck out of this rally. But not just yet – Berk and I are waiting for the PZ to swing below and stay there for an hour. In the meantime I have not been completely useless and compiled this shiny new Prophet watch list:

http://www.screencast.com/t/BiHlOlpWcR

Download this file to your desktop, then go Watch Lists->Import… and you are set to go. Non TOS users can also download the file and open it in their favorite text editor.

Calling all leeches…. Calling all leeches!!! I want to see short (and long) candidates today. Give me something to sink my teeth in. I’m trading deprived after being MIA all day yesterday. The horror!!

Tons of bearish omen on the horizon – heed the waaarrrnningg!!!

BTW, Berk has the birth mark… don’t tell anyone.

UPDATE 10:41am EST: Evil Ukla bestowed us with the following kick-ass list of short candidates, which I also ran through my own filters:

WFR, AGU, COH, AEM, ADM, CHK, CLF, CMI, MOS, RIMM

UPDATE 11:00am EST: Something that really surprised me yesterday and today was to basically see no comments at all about the Zero case study. If you haven’t looked at that I strongly recommend you do. Here is the summary part of that:

Open contracts: 1
Case Study Period:
20 trading days
Winning ES points:
668
Losing ES points: -8 (only one sample)
Contracts bought/sold: 28
Winning trades: 27
Losing trades: 1
Success rate: 96.3%
Max profit on one trade: $9,600
Max loss on one trade: $400 (admittedly only one sample)
Total profits: $33,400
Average profit per contract: $1,193
Longest contract held: 6 days (Nov 14th – Nov 21st)

Every single possible trade in the past 20 days has been documented and the results so far surprised even Berk and myself. So either nobody bothered to read it or most of you small specs don’t realize that a system that approaches anything close to a 70% success rate would be worth a lot of money. Now, I don’t expect 96% going forward and over the long term, but I’m pretty confident we’ll hit 70% and above.

UPDATE 12:07pm EST: There’s the snap back right at the pivot. I hope you guys waited and didn’t take reckless trades. Hey, the zero doesn’t lie (so far). TNX is slowly crawling up and I think we might have seen a low for now. This of course flies in the face of equities dropping – under normal circumstances. But frankly, I don’t give the TNX too much weight lately. We might see the TNX stay in a channel between 2.5% – 3.0% while the market paints larger moves. I know, I’m trying to rationalize it – the market will tell me what it wants to do.

The Yen does have an impact lately but not enough to push equities off their rails. I am also not giving the Yen too much weight – with the only exception that I prefer seeing the Yen oversold when I get a short VTA.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPNYA) INDX
8-Dec-2008, 16:00 ET, daily, O:46.48 H:46.48 L:46.48 C:46.48 V:0 Chg:13.70
Bullish Percent (2.00×3.00) chart.
Status Bull Confirmed

Β© StockCharts.com
 100.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 100.00 
  98.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 98.00
  96.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 96.00
  94.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 94.00
  92.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 92.00
  90.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 90.00 
  88.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 88.00
  86.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 86.00
  84.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 84.00
  82.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 82.00
  80.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 80.00 
  78.00 |   |   1   X     |     |         |           |                                  | 78.00
  76.00 |   |   X 3 X 5 C |     |         | +         |                                  | 76.00
  74.00 |   |   C O 4 O X 3     |       C | X +       |                                  | 74.00
  72.00 |   |   7 O   O X O 8   +       X 3 X 7 +     |                                  | 72.00
  70.00 |   |   X     O X O X 9 X +     B O X O   +   |                                  | 70.00 
  68.00 |   |   X     O B O X O 1 5 +   X O X O     + |                                  | 68.00
  66.00 |   |   6     O X 4 7 O X O   + X O 4 O X     +                                  | 66.00
  64.00 |   |   X     O A O X A X O     X O   O X O   | +                                | 64.00
  62.00 |   |   X     O X O X O C O     X |   O X O   |   +                              | 62.00
  60.00 |   |   X     7 X O X O X O     A |   O A O   |     +                            | 60.00 
  58.00 |   |   X     8 X O X O X O     9 |   O X O   |     X +                          | 58.00
  56.00 |   |   X     O 9 O 6 O X O     X |   O X B   |     X 6 +                        | 56.00
  54.00 |   |   5     O   O   O B O 7   X |   O X O   |     X O   + +                    | 54.00
  52.00 |   1   X         |   O | 6 X O X | + O X O   |     5 O     X +                  | 52.00
  50.00 |   C O X         |     | O X O 8 +   8 X O   |     X O X   X O +                | 50.00 
  48.00 |   X O X         |     | O X O + |   O 9 O X |     X O X 9 X O   +              | 48.00
  46.00 |   X O X         |     + O   +   |   O X O X O     X O X O X O     +   X        | 46.00<
  44.00 | 9 X 2 X         |   + |         |   O X O X O     X O X O X O       + X        | 44.00
  42.00 | O X O X         | +   |         |   O X O C O X   X O 8 O X O     X   X        | 42.00
  40.00 | O X O X         +     |         |   O X O X 1 X 3 4 O X O X O     X O X        | 40.00 
  38.00 | O B 3 4       + |     |         |   O X O X O X O X O X O X O     X O X        | 38.00
  36.00 | O X O |     +   |     |         |   O X O X O X O X O X O X O     X O X        | 36.00
  34.00 | O X   |   +     |     |         |   O X O   O X O X 7 X O   O     X O X        | 34.00
  32.00 | A X   | +       |     |         |   O       O 2 O X O X     O     B O X        | 32.00
  30.00 | O X   +         |     |         |           O X O X O X     O     X O C        | 30.00 
  28.00 | O X + |         |     |         |           O X O   O       A     X O X        | 28.00
  26.00 | O +   |         |     |         |           O X             O     X O X        | 26.00
  24.00 | + |   |         |     |         |           O X             O     X O X        | 24.00
  22.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           O X             O     X O X        | 22.00
  20.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           O X             O X   X O X        | 20.00 
  18.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           O X             O X O X O X        | 18.00
  16.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           O               O X O X O X        | 16.00
  14.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O X O X O X        | 14.00
  12.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O X O X O X        | 12.00
  10.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O X O   O X        | 10.00 
   8.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O X     O +        | 8.00
   6.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O X     +          | 6.00
   4.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |               O                  | 4.00
   2.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 2.00
   0.00 |   |   |         |     |         |           |                                  | 0.00 
            03  04        05    06        07          08                                          

+ = bearish resistance line + = bullish support line

Finally, the NYSE Bullish Percent is now in ‘bull confirmed’ mode. So, don’t give up on the bulls just yet.

UPDATE 12:40pm EST: Evil Speculator of the Day:


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • de3600

    10 30 coming watching zero pinned with a reverse so far if holds but 1 put on the rut

  • rhae

    SDS, I worry about curve balls during Confessional Season

  • Ukla the Mokk

    OK mole/berk…here ya go. Sans charts:
    Short: AMZN, AZO, CELG, COH, GILD, WFR
    Long: ADM, AEM, AGU, CHK, CLF, CMI, CNZ, MOS, RIMM
    I am currently long 100 shares of DRYS (up about 95%) and own a call on BA (up about 78%) and I have a put on SHLD which is down about 17%. If it breaks yesterday's low…look out below IMHO.
    I will post a chart for SHLD, since I find it so intriguing…check out the 23.6% retracement level. Can you say “obedience?”

    http://screencast.com/t/wiawxmC5K

  • de3600

    1 call on the rut as per zero

  • jp

    I just have to say congrats on the Zero – lovin it

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I hope it works out for you. I would caution to take profits quickly though. I plan on doing so today.
    As an FYI, correct me if I'm wrong mole, but at this point, we should be waiting for the ZI to be giving us a signal to go short…ergo, since the trigger line is above the zero line and has been for quite awhile, we should not be looking for signals to go long, but rather to go short once a VTA has been given.

  • molecool

    So far so good…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole everytime i refresh the page the movie clip keeps playing. CAn you fix that?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    FYI mole…lots of interesting candidates you have. I've not heard of many, but I try and keep my list o' stocks that I peruse regularly small (about 30). I do like FLR, IJR, ICF, and JEC…if I take profits today on a VTA from my long positions, I'll likely jump in with one or two of those. Gracias!

  • Paleface

    Currently long CAT, MOS.
    Short watch list: CELG, CEPH, TOL

    And Mole please… the movie starts at every reload. Once was enough for me:)

  • molecool

    Always good policy to trade what you know. I just wanted to post some heavily overbought candidates – according to my own parsing script.

  • de3600

    holy shit up 210 this is unreal

  • molecool

    Fixed. Sorry.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Despite the ZI still pointing up, I took profits on my DRYS trade. Bought 100 shares on Thursday for $4.76 — just sold out for $9.56.
    Again, I realize the bullish case still has some momentum…”how much” though is up for debate. And since I have to step away for a bit, I took my profits off. I let that winner ride, and in this market, you have to be quick to take profits IMHO. Those of you currently long, I would have an itchy trigger finger to close 'em out.

  • MaxPainMan

    14.47% short interest on DRYS

  • molecool

    LOVE most of them. Heavily overbought – parsed them through my script. Excellent – will post them.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Mole, this is just for you.

    BG breaking out sym triangle to the upside with a healthy projected move (can you last that long to capture the whole move?? I don't think I can). Go long, make money, feel redeemed!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thanks

  • molecool

    Glad nobody else saw this…

  • molecool

    During times like this I personally prefer overbought symbols.

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Long: Jorge for going through an 8 hour interview yesterday
    Short: Everyone else competing for my job

  • MaxPainMan

    DRYS max pain at $12.50……………………….

  • Duuuuuude

    I am having a great day so far. I am long in ERX and BGU that I have been in since yesterday. I stuck to the Zero rules, and did not exit on some nervous moments, but I do have lose stops in place that I keep pushing higher. I will probably roll them to ERY and BGZ when it rolls over, with permission of the Zero of course.

  • de3600

    up 350 thanks mole

  • Erikd

    Topping pattern being put in today? take a look at this
    http://screencast.com/t/DQMWVM4lc9t

  • benji12

    Mole, when are you thinking of shorting those suckers?

    My Longs: Drys, FLR, X (Took profits on all just now)
    Shorts: SHLD, IWM, CHK

  • molecool

    When my indicator tells me to.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    After the gap, with the Zero pointing green, I took a small position with a tight stop on BGU. Also closed my DRYS puts and grabbed some common stock at $9.11, then watched it jump higher to 10.30 right now. Lawl.
    Ready to dump both for ultrashorts if/when we see red. Honestly, though, I wouldn't be surprised if today was mostly sideways.
    Oh hey, almost done typing post, DRYS up to 10.50. Congrats to those who got in at sub-$5 (or sub-4)! Still pissed I missed the 3.60. (10.70 now… it's moving faster than I can type)

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Looks like I should have gone small-cap (TNA) instead of large-cap BGU. Cry.

  • tnote

    Why does everyone want to short ADM?

  • de3600

    out rut see what happens next hour

  • de3600

    profit 250

  • MovinFwd

    I'm with you man. So much to learn. Trying to get up to speed. Some feedback you asked for: The latest release of Zero is looking good. Now working on learning how to download per your instructions. Have read your case study. This is exactly what I have been working towards. Shorting possibilities (maybe near); POT, and coal stocks: ACI, ANR, BTU, CNX, MEE. JRCC. All the best.

  • http://www.ryanbarr.com/ Covered

    Mole, that zero case study is the reason that I’m considering moving to trading a few ES contracts with Zero after I get comfy in real market conditions trading smallish lots of SSO SDS.

    The case study is amazing. I’m going to work that chart a bit to calc that max draw-down of the ES contracts as well, that will factor into risk tolerances etc…

  • jimbo

    I did review your Z1 study and was impressed. Will be watching to see what another month or so brings. Excellant write-up – I might add, your tutorial and explanations for the Z are superb!

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Nice call on holding. I axe'd my ERX at 38 yesterday with a tight stop before the sell-off at the bell. Pleased with my profits, but always annoying when there could have been more. Hope you get out high, looks like things might be turning soon.
    Cheers!

  • Thrownaway

    Oh my FUCKING broker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Set a one-orders-another to buy a triple short, then set up a sell stop immediately, and those sons of bitches split it into two separate orders — letting the buy order go through, then CANCELING MY FUCKING STOP for fucking daytrading.

    They shouldn't have accepted the fucking order if they were going to do that. Fucking BASTARDS.

  • jimbo

    I did review the 20-day study & was impressed. WB watching to see results from another month or so. Superb documentation on the Z, I might add!

  • Gumbo YaYa

    I detect some sarcasm. Did I miss something?

  • Sarah

    Short = TGT, TM , GENZ

    Long = SKF

  • JWBlack

    It wasn't apparent to me if your case study waited the requisite hour after the signal first flashed buy or sell. If you freeze the zero chart, only the clear buy or sell signals stand out. Am I incorrect on this point?

  • lazydogbkk

    http://www.thetechtrader.com/images/charts/http

    ..annotated s&p chart from mptrader

  • etechpartner

    Your preaching to the choir. πŸ™‚

  • Mr_Lahey

    Here's a play for ya…C is trying for double digits again. Will it make it? I say … HELL NO!! As soon as it maxes out at 9.99, get Jan C 2.5 or 4 puts. It should be under 3 by then.

  • Keirsten

    Considering shorting APOL and DV. These were the darlings of the market during the tank-a-thon, looking awfully toppy. Nice gap down below on APOL

  • kzhat

    Call them, have the trade busted. If they split it and you didn't order it that way, they can typically bust it.

  • Duuuuuude

    I was not watching, and did not really mean to, but was stopped out of BGU at 37.8 and ERX at 38. I noticed you liked these 3X ETF's as do I. I am in cash for now, but will buy BGZ when the Zero says it is time.

  • GKM

    Short BWLD.

  • mama trader

    short watch list with aprox resistance level, some of which hit today:

    rcl ($15), tif ($25), jwn ($15), RL ($52), BBD ($11), SIAL ($43), AFL ($46)

    Long watch list with aprox support level, which hit today as well:

    skf ($100), srs ($76)

    thanks for the zero. will paper trade the zero to see if i can replicate your result.

  • Anonymous

    Mole, may we get a clarification of “permanent”?

    For example, the ZI flashed a sell signal at 11:31. At 11:32, it went back to zero. Now, if the ZI goes below zero again, without it ever going above zero, does that constitute a continuation of the first signal flashed at 11:31? That is, the signal becomes permanent as long as the line is less than or equal to zero for the specified period?

  • standard_and_poor

    just shorted the ndx via options on qqqq at 10:19 c.s.t.,, looking for 1151 on ndx.

  • Jeremiah Weed

    anybody playing the head and shoulders pattern on dug? obviously, this would be a long-term play….

  • Jeremiah Weed

    good question jw, i was wondering the same thing.

  • Thrownaway

    Good suggestion. I didn't even know that was an option.

    Unfortunately, called the brokerage and they said that since it's a self-directed account, they won't do anything. Fantastic.

    Oh well, worth a shot and appreciate the suggestion. Went ahead and hedged to limit downside…

  • geckoman

    Fellow traders I have posted CELG as a possible short candidate. Anyone interested here with it busting the bear channel?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • molecool

    Haven't seen you around before – how did you find us?

  • molecool

    Permanent is when the associated candle is done and a new one appears. Make sense?

  • Insect Overlord

    who is your broker?

  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    Apologies for not commenting (was busy), but I did look through the case study. Great results so far, and I DO like the zero indicator. I just don't want you to start charging for it! πŸ™‚

  • geckoman

    Ok, just getting into office now and sorting through names. I see some DRYS talk but how about shorting it here. It hit Fib retracement 38.2 and backed off. Buy puts here and close if DRYS hits above 11? Gimme your thoughts?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • T.B. Aurelius

    My thoughts are with you all waiting for a major break…
    And my eyes are seeing all anticipating a future event that has not happened…
    So for now I am bullish…and Ouch!…it is painful…

  • HungryNewt

    Well. cus it looks like a great bear wedge… but I’ve lost too much money on it recently so I’m ignoring it. Plus there is not enough volume in the options to keep the slippage at reasonable levels.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Oh, believe me mole…I read that case study on the ZI and I guess I haven't commented because I feel like it's cemented in my brain. I'm eagerly awaiting a VTA to the short side and I will do my own version, which is to enter some puts, but instead of shorting the ES (don't have enough $$ for that yet, I think) I will be buying an ITM option on SSO.

  • molecool

    Absolutely correct.

  • JWBlack

    Yes. This candle that ends at 11:59, because it is at zero and not below, doesn't make the 11:31 signal permanent.

  • Thrownaway

    Tradeking. My fault for using a discount broker.

  • molecool

    Sounds like a great way to dip your toe in. I completely understand that you need to watch it further. Wish TOS allowed more than 20 days of back history in 1 hour mode.

  • JWBlack

    Uhh, it is absolutely correct that I am incorrect, or absolutely correct about the point about analyzing frozen charts?

  • GD

    how do we know when the zero indicator has been under zero for an hr? I cannot find anything that tells me that on the chart. Can anyone help?

    Thanks

  • Insect Overlord

    Break below the zero on the 1hr at 12:01 — wait for the signal to be permanent!!!! As tempting as it might be. I put in a slightly aggressive order to close my call on BA. And that just got filled as I’m typing this.
    Come to me my pretty… >:)

  • JWBlack

    12:01 EST — sell signal on hourly.

    I'm going to track this.

  • molecool

    Actually, I'm with you – had I open long positions today (I don't because I was out yesterday) I would still hold them until I get a clear signal below the zero.

  • piazzi

    Hi,
    I have been looking at zero for a few days, my main tading tools are EW, momentum, and trend lines, but, so far, zero has been doing really well confirming things for me.

    The result of your back testing is awesome.

    Any chance you can expand zero to sectors at some point?

    regards,

    piazzi

    http://markettime.blogspot.com/

  • sierraseller

    sell signal on hourly just posted 12:02 ish – so now we wait for an hour for confirmation?

  • etechpartner

    Yep – wait for it to remain red for an hour on the primary chart. Dont enter before.

  • etechpartner

    Went red at roughly 12:02 / 12:03

  • JWBlack

    Mole's comment on the ZI chart making sense to me, finally.

    I must have taken dumb pills before I went to bed last night.

  • sierraseller

    hourly signal didn't stick – back to watching

  • Erikd

    this is how I see it playing out today!!! XLF : http://screencast.com/t/rJdY4sPb

  • etechpartner

    Well… you know I am the biggest cheerleader for zero. So much that I am tempted to jump right in there.

  • JWBlack

    The hourly signal did not stay below zero on the candle ending at 12:05. I get it. Thanks, mole.

  • DZZ

    Gold broke out and could be setting up for short.

    Great job on ZI and all updated documentation.

  • Chris

    Love the ZI & have it on my toolbar! Look forward to working with it & will stuy it some more.

  • standard_and_poor

    I'M NEW HERE, MR. KNIGHT SENT ME.

  • Erikd

    T.B. this is how I see $VIX http://screencast.com/t/CrCBY9zOC your wisdom is appreciated, comments..

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    OH HEY, IT'S CAPS-LOCK'O'CLOCK
    TOOT TOOT!

  • molecool

    I guess we're getting T.K.'s rejects now πŸ˜‰

  • molecool

    I guess we're getting T.K.'s rejects now πŸ˜‰

  • Duuuuuude

    Mole, I have to leave, but don't want to miss out on the drop. Would you enter a short trade with a buy stop here?

  • geckoman

    Another short candidate. If I don't get some feedback here I might stop posting these πŸ™‚

    20 year chart of INSU – see anything?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • molecool

    If you are a real cheerleader you follow the system to the tee.

  • molecool

    Maybe that's how i should say it in the tutorial….

  • standard_and_poor

    JUST BOUGHT MORE QQQQ PUTS AND LOWERED MENTAL STOP, STILL LOOKING FOR 1167 – 1151 NEAR TERM ON NDX.

  • Keirsten

    Nah…. don't stop posting ideas! I like your CELG idea, need to look harder at it today when not trading.

  • JWBlack

    If PNF shows bull confirmed, and since ZI is in long mode, shouldn't one just start a small long position here on this intraday pullback?

  • Jeremiah Weed

    TK

  • molecool

    Color (or colour for those Bri'ish bastards) does not matter! Must be below zero.

  • JWBlack

    Mole, your ZI is fascinating to watch.

    I don't know if it means anything, but the 30-minute green line spiked up all of a sudden.

  • molecool

    Is it below zero? No – so, no entry and no cookies.

  • Erikd

    4 out of 5 indicators have confirmed downside. waiting today for XLF to finish intraday topping pattern today and the bears will be back in full control tomorrow. this is the last confirmation needed.

  • molecool

    At-a-boy!!

  • molecool

    I'm going to license it as Pet TV.

  • molecool

    Nope – no signal – no cookies. You cannot trade if you are not around.

  • molecool

    1+ for not misspelling choir.

  • ronamatron

    I went long ES @ 906.

    Watching the Euro as it approaches 1.3, if it breaks upwards crude and the market should follow.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    i hope xlf goes through the roof πŸ™‚ i'm long UYG lol

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I wonder if i would of spelled that correctly πŸ™‚

  • tnote

    what do you see the wedge on? On the daily it looks like it is trending higher, albeit loosing momentum

  • Hammerhead

    I love the current survey, “I'm trading against you wankers” At least you guys have a good sense of humor.

  • Erikd

    this is worth watching XLF: http://screencast.com/t/3z0uxSxDt

  • junior35

    Your candidate is good,but IMO you're taking the chart back to the middle ages. Just look 2 years back.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/junior35/folder

  • de3600

    πŸ™‚

  • geckoman

    Isn't there a 19 box reversal rule on the NYSE BP's? I seem to recall that anytime the BP's get 19 boxes or more that you can expect it to flip to the other series of X or O.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF has been up to 13.70's 2 times in the last 2 days. If it goes up there again it will eat right through it. If not today Wed

  • ronamatron

    Ack, got denied pretty bad @ 1.3. Moved my stop up to 906. I'll get in later.

  • JWBlack

    How did you get that picture of my house maid?

  • etechpartner

    Funny ! Why do i feel like Mole is my big trading brother? Must be the German thing between us. Every time I get excited he comes back with “be careful out there”. Its nice to have someone cautious and skeptical running a blog for a change.

  • benji12

    tomorrow is when the auto bailout will be announced

  • C'est La Vie

    I remember it as the rule of 20. Although not 100% sure.

  • Enfinity

    1.31 is the line in the sand.

    πŸ™‚

  • planetelex

    Eric, what are your other 4 indicators? Or are they secret indicators? πŸ™‚

  • Erikd

    $TNX USO $VIX FXY

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Hey there! I own some $FAZ at 36.70

  • standard_and_poor

    LOOKING FOR ACCELERATION IN NDX DROP ABOUT NOW, IF NOT BE CAREFUL DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS IF ADDING TO SHORTS.

  • Erikd

    Did you unbeach a whale last night while you were swimming around? I think you fed it alittle and gave him some strength.. what say you? πŸ™‚

  • JWBlack

    i think we got a confirmed sell on the 30-minute.

  • etechpartner

    Did we just get another signal change? 1:02PM

  • willc

    xlf just broke the intraday support. let's see if it can settle down there for a bit.

  • standard_and_poor

    HERE WE GO DOWN IF YOU'RE SHORT TERM TRADING, HANG ON TO YOUR SHORTS (BOXERS FOR THE REST OF YOU. NDX JUST BROKE 1259,LOOKING FOR 1167 NEAR TERM.

  • Erikd

    you have a Evil eye πŸ™‚

  • JWBlack

    Confirmed sell on hourly?

  • sierraseller

    looks like it

  • Guardian

    Hello, Just wondering, have you tried testing it aginst day closes? — wouldn't that be interesting if it worked.

  • Lori

    Would that also require a -1 for misspelling You're ? j/k πŸ™‚

  • junior35

    Looks like a fakeout.

  • geckoman

    Yes I verified. It is 20 boxes.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Yes… I did!

  • JustinB

    JW, I don't think just yet – if I understand it correctly we need to wait until the 2pm EST bar opens and it stays below zero. Correct me if I am wrong, Mole. Patiently waiting as well. :O)

  • lazydogbkk

    hey s&p, do you shout in caps when you're wrong too?

  • JWBlack

    I thought mole had said as long as line stays red when the next candle starts, then it is considered “permanent.”

  • Erikd

    You can say that you might have saved a whale last night! πŸ™‚

  • sierraseller

    I think it has to stay below the line for the entire hour after the first break below the line. i.e. you have to watch it continuously for the entire hour to make sure it doesn't retreat back to even with or above the line

  • JustinB

    It's hard to clarify without having the charting crosshairs, but I don't believe it below zero at the 1pm 60 Min close? Looked like it was still at the zero? I'd say hit the sell button once the 2pm candle opens and it's still below the zero.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Look at $FAZ go! I'm up 4% since this morning.

  • Erikd

    Look at that XLF dropping. bighouse have you stopped out yet?

  • Thrownaway

    I, for one, am just happy to see the bulls take a breath for a minute, even if it doesn't stick.

  • Thrownaway

    Haha, don't get too cocky yet, it could still turn around, but it looks like your day might have finally come. πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    XLF will build momentum when it falls thru 13.25 area and fills gap. IMO

  • Erikd

    looks like you have been feeding the whales last night

  • JustinB

    Maybe you can sell it to TOS? Can auto trade be set up? ;o)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    No. I plan on holding until dow gets to 9k-9400. I was expecting xlf to fill the gap at 13 and then turn around.

  • Hammerhead

    As I understand it, the line is always moving during the one hour period, it's the where it closes at the end of this one hour that is important. Better though if it goes below the line and stays there the entire hour and closes under the zero line. That's how I see it. Correct me if I'm wrong.

  • Brian

    a bit off topic.. Erikd must have a crystal ball.. I remember him saying gas was going to 1.50.. well this morning it was 156.9 by my place.

    maybe I need to take up trading for a change of pace.

  • molecool

    CLEAN THEM CUPS!

  • standard_and_poor

    sorry if i shouted i'm new at this, don't know me blogging etiquette.

  • sierraseller

    his note on the zero chart says “swing below and stay there” I think that means below the line for the full 60 min bar.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Profits are locked in at 2%! I'm currently up 5%.

  • geckoman

    Shorted DRYS at via Jan 7.50 puts when stock was at 10.35.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Well, firstly you should get an avatar.

    And maybe a name that is more optimistic.

  • piazzi

    Dear Evil,

    Your Zero really kicks some butt.

    I initiated a trade based on my 15 min, qnd 5-min wave count on SPY, and now added based on zero confirmation

    Like all indicators, it lags, and that is not the point, the point is accuracy and capturing major portion of a move,, which, so far, I have seen zero does well.

    regards,

    piazzi

    http://markettime.blogspot.com/

  • Erikd

    save a whale kill a market. LOL

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Hopefully I will be considered a whale someday.

  • Erikd

    TraderTamas is really trying to helpyou, his night job is a whalefeeder πŸ™‚

  • grednfer

    Im in for that…..shorted with FAZ…..up 6% so far.

  • Erikd

    you already are you just havent grown-up yet, but you are well on your way, as they say you have to know one to become one πŸ™‚

  • Harry

    ASTE infrastructure play. Insider Campbell Thomas R exercised 44,849 options at 29.03 and sold 44,849 shares at 33.13 yesterday. Looks like resistance at 35.00 Why the timely selling if infrastructure is supposedly going to be the next hot thing?

  • standard_and_poor

    thanks for advice, stil s&p

  • evolnomis

    with the hour candle complete, is it now time to short SPX?

  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    To my thinking, we could have downside today or tomorrow, to the 880+ level on ES's, but be careful as the bears pile on, b/c I suspect a massive bear trap, once we've had a “breakdown”. We'll have to see.

  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    I complement your guys on your transparency, it's really useful, interesting, and appreciated. It's also rare.

  • Turps

    Is there a target to the downside for the S&P or is the plan to let Zero take you out?

  • PatrickK

    … sorry for this delay, I've had software issues this past week. Gecko, yes on TTS Squeeze code for TOS. How can I communicate with you? The Zero is supreme, nothing like it! Mole & Berk, you are awsome. Now if I can conquer a disqus upload. Thanks.

  • Tiger Woods

    Mole- Wanted to introduce myself and say that I have been following the zero now for a more than a week and like the way it now performs. I have been short (prematurely!) for the past few days and my position is now in sync with you guys. I plan to use the zero to guide me out of this short successfully by exiting at one of the next two (2sweeties) retrace levels of 878 and 852. I'm quite nervous being short in the midst of an inverted H&S that looks to be confirmed.

    Thanks for making this available and coordinating with 2sweeties. And yes, I was able to figure how how to use it via your able tutorial.

    Like the chick too!

  • Vic

    You wanted comments on the zero. Here are my 2 cents:
    The performance of the indicator as shown in your “paper” is amazing. However, I must say that a trading period consisting of a few days is not consclusive as far as trading systems go. Some systems are stochastic in nature, some follow trends, some are random and as such different periods and time frames would affect the performance of the indicator/trading system.

    I give you an example -bear with me, this system used to be 60% profitable, but in an effort to reduce drawdown and incerase profitability I messed it up and have not fixed it yet and since I'm a discretionary trader…

    http://screencast.com/t/AZKDneCy
    This is the infamous TTM Squeeze similar to the one used by the TradeTheMarket boys. In reality this system is OLD and has been known for years as the BBSqueeze -coded by a tradestation user.
    You can see that in the last 45 trading days, this system performed well. Keep in mind I messed up the stops, so the performance would have been 60+% and now it is too late and I'm too tired to deal with the [not so] EasyLanguage. A profit factor of 2.15 in 45 days over 8k, returning 2k is good in my book.

    Now, here is the same system using a different time interval:
    http://screencast.com/t/SzaAz6PwM
    Profitability improved, using the same messed up stop system, but the profit factor dropped by half! If I backtested it for 2 years, the system would be a complete failure -this is why the TTM boyz trade discretionary. They carefully select their “squeezes”.

    You may also want to consider taking the signal only when the signal is in the same direction as a signal previously given in a larger time frame. I.e.: take the long side in 30min signal if and only if the 60min signal is already fired.

    You also mentioned that the system should be used with other indicators (for confirmation). I've found out -just by observation- that stochastic divergencies filter out many of the false signals in the bbsqueeze. It may also work with the Zero.

    All I'm trying to say is backtest your system a lot longer, in volatile and non-volatile times. Use different time frames as well. You may find that your Zero is capable of MUCH more.

    Best regards.

  • Vic

    You wanted comments on the zero. Here are my 2 cents:
    The performance of the indicator as shown in your “paper” is amazing. However, I must say that a trading period consisting of a few days is not consclusive as far as trading systems go. Some systems are stochastic in nature, some follow trends, some are random and as such different periods and time frames would affect the performance of the indicator/trading system.

    I give you an example -bear with me, this system used to be 60% profitable, but in an effort to reduce drawdown and incerase profitability I messed it up and have not fixed it yet and since I'm a discretionary trader…

    http://screencast.com/t/AZKDneCy
    This is the infamous TTM Squeeze similar to the one used by the TradeTheMarket boys. In reality this system is OLD and has been known for years as the BBSqueeze -coded by a tradestation user.
    You can see that in the last 45 trading days, this system performed well. Keep in mind I messed up the stops, so the performance would have been 60+% and now it is too late and I'm too tired to deal with the [not so] EasyLanguage. A profit factor of 2.15 in 45 days over 8k, returning 2k is good in my book.

    Now, here is the same system using a different time interval:
    http://screencast.com/t/SzaAz6PwM
    Profitability improved, using the same messed up stop system, but the profit factor dropped by half! If I backtested it for 2 years, the system would be a complete failure -this is why the TTM boyz trade discretionary. They carefully select their “squeezes”.

    You may also want to consider taking the signal only when the signal is in the same direction as a signal previously given in a larger time frame. I.e.: take the long side in 30min signal if and only if the 60min signal is already fired.

    You also mentioned that the system should be used with other indicators (for confirmation). I've found out -just by observation- that stochastic divergencies filter out many of the false signals in the bbsqueeze. It may also work with the Zero.

    All I'm trying to say is backtest your system a lot longer, in volatile and non-volatile times. Use different time frames as well. You may find that your Zero is capable of MUCH more.

    Best regards.