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Intra-Day Update: Watch Yo’self
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Intra-Day Update: Watch Yo’self

by The MoleNovember 13, 2008

UPDATE Opening Bell: Bulls are storming the beaches right at the open of the gate – I was right to not trust the tape yesterday. Maybe this is the rally we are waiting for, allowing us to load up on massive short positions. Just FYI – this rally has no volume compared with what I saw yesterday – I mean nada, zilch, nichts, rien. While Berk and I get our bearings straight here are today’s retracement levels.

UPDATE 10:46am EST: IF you took a hammering in the rally up – just FYI – YEN has been holding at 1.0405. IF that one is being breached I will cut my short positions.

UPDATE 11:12am EST: Damn, that was a bit scary – glad I didn’t sell at the top. Not sure we’re out of the woods just yet, but I’m watching that Yen pivot like a hawk.

UPDATE 11:20am EST: Wow – crude just tanked by 2 points in 20 minutes. I wonder when my FSLR puts are going to make a move.

UPDATE 12:19pm EST: Just wanted to let you guys know that we just pushed below the low of the {b} wave at 845.27 – this means that the triangle is officially out of the picture. We either go straight down from here or we rally.

UPDATE 12:49pm EST: We just made new lows on the SPX – wait for it though – the Yen is approaching a pivot and I doubt we’ll push through it at the first try. Yen looking very overbought right now (87%) – might need some recharging on my stochastics. Wait for a rip folks!!

UPDATE 1:06pm EST: Watch the 819 pivot on the ES futures.

UPDATE 1:51pm EST: This is the new wave count for now – we need to turn around pretty much right here or I’m going into cash.

UPDATE 2:21pm EST: I hope this chart helps you guys – at least this makes the most sense to me. If we breach through the 50% fib, which also happens to be a retracement, it’s probably best to admit defeat and go into cash.

Actually, the 870 is a long retracement level, but I’m sticking with that one anyway due to the fibs.

UPDATE 2:48pm EST: Not sure what to tell you guys – this is looking pretty ugly. I have upgraded this spike now to wave minute {iv} up and if we breach the highlighted area the part is over for the bears. The rules are the rules.

UPDATE Closing Bell: Well, I have to go now and apply Vaseline to where it hurts the most. Berk will do a quick update tonight as I’m completely worn out and will do the weekend update instead. BTW, am I the only one who thinks this is funny?

Hat tip to all the institutional traders out there. You have to acknowledge true evil when you find yourself in its presence. Good job guys – you completely wiped the floor with the bears today.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I hope we go right down the tubes. I cant take another day of this triangle.

  • C.C. Rider

    I think the SPX high is in at 864.50. Batten down the hatches mate! Having said that, I'm all over goog, fslr, aapl, on a countertrend rally. It must be a confirmed bottom, on heavy volume, slightly above or below the recent lows. Scale it in and go out to Jan. calls.

  • C.C. Rider

    There's one towel. White flag? LOL!

  • minion of the ppt

    I believe in the triangle as it is way more evil than these calls for crashes, dives etc. including another false break-out on the top of course.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    lol

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    market is just dancing around here

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I'm seriously looking at CELG, GILD, IWM, and WFC if this bullishness demonstrates any teeth.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Ukla the Mokk

    I said, “if this bullishness demonstrates any teeth,” not “if BigHouse demonstrates any teeth.”

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Does anyone know if 2sweets sent out retracement today?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    :)

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa
  • toad37

    I believe he did. On you in his email list?

  • toad37

    Looks like we will retest SPY lows here….

  • Ukla the Mokk

    It's kinda neat…heres a snapshot of my Prime Movers (in homage to Rush) watchlist where I take my picks from. This morning it was almost all green. The shift to red makes me grin.

    http://screencast.com/t/0p9kdSyUn

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I wish it would just go through it

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I don't know if it is gonna reach as high as you are projecting, but if there is any rally possibility, it is somewhere here, I reckon…
    I have been slightly overloaded on puts since Friday, and am shaving some off here and there…
    Happy trading…
    p.s.
    But the down side is still left quite a bit…I believe.

  • toad37

    No doubt, this is getting tiring :)

  • T.B. Aurelius

    AAPL has to clear through88.75 to resume the downside.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    xlf making new lows

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    boy there is a battle going on down on these important levels

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Whats the prophet symbol for the yen that you're watching?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Anyone remember crox. Its now .99 cents lol

  • molecool

    They are on the chart above mate – did you read my post?

  • molecool

    I feel your pain mate – these patterns are extremely taxing on our psychological fortitude.

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Yes, i was. and yes to mole. i just wondered , i did not receive it. Thanks

  • etechpartner

    Mole – how much of a leading indicator is the YEN? Or maybe I don't understand how you use it.

  • OttoPiloto

    I noticed that too. Put Crox in your note book under Fads. History has a funny way of repeating itself…hey that's kind of what this blogs about.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Goody….Shrub is speaking at 2:00

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Anyone feel we will have a big move or is this just going to chop around today?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Anyone else watching a small triangle form in the $NDX?

    Skål!

  • Growler

    Washington Post regarding TARP: ” “It's a mess,” said Eric M. Thorson, the Treasury Department's inspector general, who has been working to oversee the bailout program until the newly created position of special inspector general is filled. “I don't think anyone understands right now how we're going to do proper oversight of this thing.”

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    yup

  • SierraSeller

    Yesterday at the close, based on retracement levels and three days down in a row, I opened long positions on the SPX, RUT, NDX. After reading your post last night and watching the action this morning, I dumped all of them at 10am. Thanks for another excellent discussion of the alternatives.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    My order for puts did not fill that fateful day before earning with CROX trading at 75.

    Skål!

  • Growler

    yes

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    What do you make of Mr VIX's inaction today?

    Skål!

  • Paleface

    And on the others.

  • b_rad

    the problem is the money is already out the door, there is no way to get it back. Banks are still being approved for funding.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Glad I am not alone…

    Skål!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Sucky. Thats why i got out of my Nov calls a few days ago when i heard volume was light.

  • b_rad

    President speaking this afternoon, stay sharp.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Soros speaking now

  • bearish_on_bull

    triangle just keeps getting smaller, need a microscope soon.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    xlf keeps making new lows

  • Growler

    Lots of bad news today

    U.K on Brink of Meltdown
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008

    Alarm Bells Ring In Russia Over Ruble, Falling Oil Prices
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  • Paleface

    It can kill or revive the big triangle…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    spx going below 845 hurray………………………..)

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Finally momentum picking up to the downside from flatline on SPX

  • etechpartner

    This should be an interesting timing exercise. The SPX just went to the LOD and the YEN just hit 1046. Question is how fast does either react to the other – if there is such thing.

  • bearish_on_bull

    locked and loaded, may have to skip lunch on this one…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This market could just drip drip drip down

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Hi, B, they are lifesavers… or “portfolio savers” at times 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSx2HIi4dFg

    I will be listening to this song as we go down.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Can someone please tell me why Mr Vix is red? Good god.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    I don't trust this push down yet. ZN hasn't made new highs, QM hasn't made new lows, VIX hasn't made new highs, YEN hasn't made new lows while the prices on the index futures are all making new lows. The only thing consistent is XLF is making new lows, which is what is bringing down the market so far, but with the other inter-market indicators not confirming yet, maybe this is a bear trap so far.

  • sibekp

    Yeah… I just dont see us breaking 840. But we shall see. The market will lead.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    My APC and XOM puts are up 10 and 15% so far today.
    But I'm watching SPX for 2sweeties “go long” level approaching…
    http://screencast.com/t/vsSIc0KpNbR

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Because you need to change your song:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdMDWEpbrHU

    Good for yen lovers/trackers… quite gay, lol.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    VIX leap at next opening is still in the cards.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Treasuries starting to roll over right at resistance which would make a lower high after a lower low today. Indexes are diverging with their price action as compared to this indicator. Cash moving out of treasuries & soon into stocks?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I've been thinking that as well…I'm very skeptical despite being in positive territory today.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Watch for possible NDX100 bounce near 1130

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Your both wrong…We should be back to this right about now…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4FFF1NBiTs

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I could do this too for you forward thinking folks…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW5tNouGSyo

    “Pretty soon we will be tumbling like barrel, thrown from the top of a waterfall!!”

    Skål!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    This market is looking more and more like a waterfall set up…

  • gagelle

    Hope we go straight down.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hey Mr Vix is up a wopping .66

  • b_rad

    Finally some action. Go VIX Go!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    The dow just went below its low of {b}. Nice

  • moneyfarm

    Man, I really need to take a piss – just don't want to step away!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Classic rocker you are! 😉 They're old enough to be your 'papas' [though some are dead now].

    Like one said, bear is good, but we need “cash!” :-) Good economy as a whole, to weather the storm.
    Cheap gas should help.

  • molecool

    LOL – same here – I just had to run for it.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    xlf is looking ugly now at 11.80

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    uyg at 5.79

  • sibekp

    Man… no resistence at all. That happened quick.

  • bearish_on_bull

    same here, I have to choose between squirming and updating stops.

  • ZigZag

    I just use my coffee mug :-)

  • moneyfarm

    Tried taking stab at SSO when we hit the 832 retracement. Stopped out with very small loss.

  • benji12

    there's going to be a rip? why?

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Simple y'all, only 1 more chart to look at: The Cystitis chart.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    What happen to Erikd and his market going higher? Wonder if he is still long.

  • dzz

    I'm waiting for the 6% SPX drop!

  • Paleface

    Watch the TNX!

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Just holdin on – look forward to that smile of relief as the Bear gets fulfilment.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Here comes the rip

  • FNM

    Just bought calls on VZ & UYG.

  • Eric

    Will stocks continue higher or lower after the rip?

  • Bricks

    Well…the interest in the market is so crazy today that the CNBC website is too busy to accept connections.

  • Chrys

    At 818 we are at the 50% RT from the 1974 low to 2007 top.

  • Growler

    I know this dude who has an old coffee can next to his desk and just let's it go.

    Mind you, he did this on the trading floor infront of 50 people : )

  • dzz

    HS R?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Lower!!

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Why not?

    Skål!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Know this is a rip

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Wow. Was that just a 'stop cleaner?'

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Ya… did it do its job…

    Skål!

  • b_rad

    819 Pivot held, please tell me that was not IT…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good place to short now

  • Eric

    bighouse are we headed up from here?

  • molecool

    Told you guys… I grabbed one BIDU on the way up. But if we breach 840 again on the ES futures.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hell no

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Ye of little faith….

    Skål!

  • green

    mole berk are you buying puts at 840 again?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No… Had he not adjusted his stop, it would have been taken out while breaking the “B” wave low…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    now THIS is the stop cleaner…

    Skål!

  • Growler

    You still think we're going down?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Amen bro…Get 'em…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You think we're going up?

    Skål!

  • Growler

    I'm agnostic.

  • Erikd

    100 % long!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    damm dow is going to go green

  • Erikd

    Yes

  • bearish_on_bull

    dag nabbit

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    People on cnbc are cheering that the dow is green

  • moneyfarm

    Just picked up RIMM Nov 35 puts and MA 130 puts.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    You got guts.

  • Erikd

    higher to 1020 spy by end of next week

  • Erikd

    I use mental stops that are adusted after each day

  • etechpartner

    This was just plain silly. All day long I was exactly opposite the market. Bought and sold OIH, bought and sold SDS. All at exactly the wrong tiimes (respectively). So today I got chewed up a little bit. I would looove to find out how you guys called the pivot and what had you waiting for the rip.

  • Erikd

    ebb and flow

  • molecool

    I feel your pain mate – easy to get faked out in this tape.

  • Growler

    Yen coming around the bend (stoch / MACD)

  • etechpartner

    Appreciate that. I did get to watch the YEN in action a little. So is it a leading indicator at all?

  • Paleface

    Stopped out of puts…

  • Erikd

    trading the odds

  • b_rad

    I dont speak for mole, but the pivots based on the demark method for the ES for today were:

    R1 882
    PP 865
    S1 819

    There are a few different methods on mypivots.com/dn, all seem to be different, still trying to figure out what works best.

  • HungryNewt

    me too. f%@**k

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    can you explain to me how the odds favor the long side here?

    What timeframe?

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I mean…that is like people suggesting to go long FSLR after it doubled in 2 days…

    The upside has played out now…. IMO, but we know you are bullish. I am just curious why…

    Skål!

  • Growler

    lol…i love your balls

    (Balls = guts. I feel I have to define this just incase)

  • Erikd

    wave c is here!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    yup this rip could be just to stop out shorts.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Is the coffee cup full yet??

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Which wave c? Chart please.

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Got stopped out on sso calls. When you guys set stops on options do you set to option price or the stocks price? thanks for any help.

  • dzz

    Anyone else long Oil? DXO up 8%

  • molecool

    I got S1 at 838.

  • dzz

    9%

  • Erikd

    weekly

  • molecool

    In this market I don't set stops – guaranteed to get you out right before u-turns.

  • dzz

    11% and still going!

  • Erikd

    wave c is here and will be played out

  • bearish_on_bull

    congestion, trying to make a decision… was that enough to shake the shorts loose? seems like it from the blogs…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice….

    Skål!

  • b_rad

    exactly my point! Do you calculate them yourself? it seems everything i look at: TOS, Prophet, Shadowtrader, Mypivots,etc are different, not to mention there are 4 methods used on mypivots.

    Let's discuss After market close

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Thanks, found that out the hard way.

  • Erikd

    S/P will close above 872 today – IMO

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Market stuck in the mud here

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Erik is all in lol

  • moneyfarm

    LOL 2x over. Need to switch to a bucket. And yes I am still holding these.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thanks for the chart mole

  • sibekp

    Did we break the right shoulder of an inverse H&S just now?

  • Growler

    Seems to me YEN is making the turn (3min) chart to move back up again (potentially).
    Furthermore, its most recent sell off failed to make a new low.

    I'm sitting out…..for now

  • de3600

    could be the surge srs collasping imho

  • tradingmom

    Time to short FSLR again? Its over 124.

  • angus_mc

    EWI update last night talked about being prepared for headfakes on both sides

    I guess they were right

    I've been in cash waiting to scale into shorts at higher levels or get long in the remote possibility of a crash

  • angus_mc

    EWI update last night talked about being prepared for headfakes on both sides

    I guess they were right

    I've been in cash waiting to scale into shorts at higher levels or get long in the remote possibility of a crash

  • de3600

    i would not at this time but that me

  • benji12

    870 BREACH!!!!

  • de3600

    Long bulltard the rut short srs working out right now for the lol 15 min prob

  • Erikd

    watch the follow thru action in after hours trading and the following week!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Boy this is some rip lol

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think the market will go red now

  • Eric

    bighouse…its not looking good…=/

  • Rolie

    Erik, you thinking this is an expanded flat? Which could give a target of at least 1065 on S&P….my that would be a turn up!

  • lazydogbkk

    November 13, 2008
    To Go Short DAILY Setup and Commentary:

    895.58 is the most frequent reversal point for “this type” of retracement UP.

    ..see if 2sw's target ends the hoopla later on

  • Erikd

    at least 1020 on S/P question is are you going bank some coin or watch others get it.
    this is the “turn up”

  • Erikd

    the S/P will leap frog over 895 in the next day

  • Growler

    Hey Mole and Berk…..I still love ya.

  • Rolie

    haven't put on a single trade on the upside in my short semi-trading career! First time for everything.

    Way too oversold currently. Will have to wait for a dip.

  • molecool

    I don't mind you posting here Erik but unless you start backing up your calls I will have to ban your ass. It seems you always swoop in to freak out the noobs. Can't have that. Post charts and contribute or you're gone.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It is now… IMHO.. But shows no signs of stopping yet…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes…

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    This spring that is starting today will not have any major pull backs or “dips” until we get over 1020 S/P. dont procrastinate to long .

  • molecool

    Well, I think I've been calling the rip quite nicely (see above). However, had I know it's going to be that nasty I would have cut my puts 😉

  • de3600

    NO THIS IS NOT THE YAHOO FIN BOARD

  • Growler

    lol…..I know…I was being sarcastic.

    I think the world of you guys.

    : )

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    WOW… you are expecting another 20% STRAIGHT up… That would be something…

    Skål!

  • etechpartner

    No your not. Its your blog/board.

  • benji12

    u still holding onto them?

  • de3600

    dont frown guys let it run makes great shorting again in days this had to come will put <pardon the pun> at rest for a while disclaimer long rut short srs

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well the last hour is here. Lets see if there is a pull back .

  • b_rad

    go hang out at attilla's, you seem to be giving the same advice

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I have to disagree with you there. “THIS” is not “THE” “TURN UP.” Look at an intra-day chart. What do you see? A V-bottom, unhealthy as can be… V-Bottoms don't last. Market will need to retest…

    Skål!

  • malusDiaz

    Technical Analysis, even if it whip-saws on the improbable, is better then the leap of faith in the dark.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Mole, I agree commenters may need to provide evidence to back up claims, but you aren't going to promote a free flow of ideas here by ruling with an iron fist (unless the goal is to be one sided). Even SOH didn't ban Beannie & he's an outright idiot. The readers will make their own conclusions, right? Aren't we disgusted with government's intervention in the 'free markets' as we speak? Just a thought.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Nasty tug of war on GOOG chart, trying to break thru 309…

  • Gumbo YaYa

    I think you meant “you're” not. The grammar police strike again!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well, it was all on the chart I posted last night… just in the wrong order. Who'd 'a thunk…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Yes, I'm crazy – I know.

  • molecool

    Okay, i agree – I'll give him a chance to redeem himself. But I still think he should back up his views – we don't mind bulls here at all – but we hate folks who only show up on rallies and spread lofty claims without backing them up.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Computer says nooooo.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    That's it – you're BOTH banned 😉

  • molecool

    That's it – you're BOTH banned 😉

  • etechpartner

    Gumbo – wenn du so gut Deutsch sprichst wie ich Englisch spreche koennen wir weiter reden :-)
    That is to say English is my second language.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF went back in the red

  • Growler

    “Here comes the Yen again..Falling on my head like a……”

  • etechpartner

    Ok now why do I get a mental picture of Tim's favorite Bunker video when you say that?

  • Growler

    agreed…I've been scalping this guy the whole way up.
    Actually VOL & the Candles have been my best indicator today for GOOG>

  • Post Turtle

    I caught your 12:49 right before it left the station. Umm, I accidentally downpointed you :-(
    Sorry. I clicked the wrong damn arrow. I think I fixed it?

  • ZigZag

    No you're not overreacting. I had the same exact feeling when he showed up, right when the market went green.

  • Growler

    So umm, the older guys in the room wanted me to send you this…..enjoy

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13pCHb62kvQ&feat

    (lololololol)

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    I thought 'ulterior motive' cause for ban here is paid subscription or sales pitch.
    List your rules on the right column? Grammar, back up theories, shoot downs, “welcome new E.S. readers”, etc.
    I agree with Gumbo below 😉

  • etechpartner

    Mole, out of curiosity (and you can say its none of my business), what percentage of your funds do you trade with and what percentage is held back. I ran into a situation today where all my ammunition was gone by the time we had the rally. Even though I worked very hard at money management and not going overboard with any given trade. Still, the morning whipsaw chewed up my avail cash and I stood by with hands in pocket while we rallied.

  • tradingmom

    Thanks, Berk. I'm in at 124, thought about covering at 118 for a quick
    profit but I missed it, turned on me, so I guess I'll hold for a while longer.

    In a message dated 11/13/2008 1:56:13 P.M. Central Standard Time,
    writes:

  • BigSteve

    I agree with you Mole, I don't mind being challenged, but it needs to be more than just some blank statement with no backup. Even just saying you got a gut feeling sometimes works. (At least when moo says it.) But one should at least give us a reason as to why they believe what they say.

  • jacksoo

    SPX 10 day 10min trend line from recent highs might be of help?

  • wc111

    Yesterday ISEE new index Call/Put ratio @ all time low of 38. A lot of people loaded up on puts. If the market continue to rally, the put holders will flat out the positions by buying the stocks or sell the puts. That will put oil into fire. It makes reaching ES 980 before expiration possible.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    I meant thru to upside – it did for 15 minutes before 3 o'clock… looks like it's going at it again. That's the 3-year low.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Fair enough. I learned how to speak German in Switzerland, so that's to say I can now read it some, but lost the speaking ability especially since they have such a different dialect than Hochdeutsch.

    That was several years ago. I really should brush up…great language.

  • b_rad

    further, for money you are not putting at-risk, where do you park it? you just let it sit in cash or have other strategies? what kind of rates do you get?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Dump them when things fall below fib25….maybe down back to the low….
    Probably another rally will start

  • angus_mc

    I think what happened at the intraday low is ES / NQ went too far deep below their BB(20, 2.0), it's a rare incident to close so far below the bollinger bands. We were overextended to the downside …

  • Paleface

    Nice line, but not enough

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Berk,

    Is this positive breadth strong enough to validate the triple bottom theory I mentioned yesterday? Not that I am super experienced in ready the intra market signals, but todya just felt really off when it fell. It was a perfect market maker 'stop cleaner' & then *whoosh* right back up. Wow.

  • Growler

    cool….vol is increasing again…maybe we'll hit 314…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    There should be another beautiful short opp. before the close today…I reckon…

  • Gumbo YaYa

    This is more than just short covering – ZN still selling off hard, USD/JPY breaking resistances & screaming up, XLF breaking short term downtrend lines, VIX breaking $65 support & still falling. Internals are really strong signaling broad based buying.

  • jch

    Ending Diagonal? if {iv} over lapes.

  • minion of the ppt

    My favorite bunker video is “Der Untergang”. I especially like this version – a must see for anyone interested in evil finance: http://equityprivate.typepad.com/ep/the_spiral/… (last part missing, the guy became editor of dealbreaker). Should cheer you up after a strange day.

  • Paleface

    And if we break down tomorrow from SPX 930, it will be the MM's paradise!

  • angus_mc

    It may a bit premature, but I think this may be forming an ending diagonal 5th (3-3-3-3-3), the bottom of the 3rd leg would be today

  • Paleface

    Yesterday UVOL-DVOL was -13, now it is +12

  • ronamatron

    Actually guys the market is rallying because slopeofhope.com is down. Or at least I can't get to it.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I will have to check my EOD indicators to let you know… It could be though…

    Skål!

  • bearish_on_bull

    reminder, 2sw has retracement short at 895.58 in case anyone is in for a little more pain.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Mukla,

    Retest on HK (and all the other goodies I posted yesterday). Going to wait until tomorrow to enter any puts. Don't want to step in front of the bull freight train…

  • molecool

    Sprichst Du Deutsch?

  • Erikd

    molecool I have been following this blog since you started it. I was the first blogger you had to post on your endeavor. I Actually had e mails encouraging berkshire to follow his thoughts and dreams of creating a trading culture/community before this blog was even created.You both have done an awesome job of building this into what it is today. I do not want to create any animosity here and wish you and this community nothing but success. If I came across in the wrong tone it was in trying to balance the sentiment intra day that would possibly make any noobs make sure that they were commited to thier metodology before getting caught up in a day such as today. We are a week from option expiration and this bounce today is the best scenario for the marketmakers to do what they need to do this month.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am shorting here…

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Wait until the close, get better prices…

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I was gonna buy calls a couple hours after the open when I was distrustful of any downward movement, but I had to go to work so I didn't. Got stopped out of APC and XOM will probably do the same shortly.

  • b_rad

    :::jaw drop::::

    holy shit look at that volume!

  • BigSteve

    SPX above 907 now. Is the bear done for the near term?

  • molecool

    Ending diagonal – yes – we breached the low of {1} of 5, so it's either that or something even more evil.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Anyone selling SPY since we're beyond 2sweetie's first “go short” level of 895?

  • de3600

    wowwwwwwwwww

  • molecool

    Yes. Very good!

    1+

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Ahhhh finally Angus! Welcome…
    Saw ya at Attila's.

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    We breached the mfer.

  • SierraSeller

    But can they save me from myself? Had I kept the positions I'd be much wealthier now! jk
    I went short at 880, stopped out; short again at the close; 905 ish. Any morning strength and I'm out again.

  • de3600

    What a fucked up market(pardon me) anyone short srs or buy puts

  • Ukla the Mokk

    See my comment below. I did.

  • minion of the ppt

    Enttarnt

  • molecool

    We fucking did.

  • toad37

    that was some fucked up shit… fuck.

  • molecool

    I only traded about 20% today and lost 1/2 of it. Ugly day – held out until the end but it crossed the point where I could not justify holding any longer.

  • molecool

    Yupp – funny thing is that I called for a rip. But not THAT KIND OF A RIP. Will have to chalk this one up to one of the worst I've seen.

  • http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com beanieville

    Feel the power of the Batwings formation!

  • R2theJ

    Funny post Mole…..yeah, with all that good news a rally like this makes a lot of sense….NOT!!! Time to start drinking, worst day I have had since July….boooooo!

  • molecool

    Same comment I just gave to Erikd goes out to you. Don't come here to rub it in after a big move up. We don't mind bulls at all – after all we're bulls ourselves often. But if you come here try to contribute. Post charts – join the discussion and try to offer something. All I ever see from you are lofty claims and comments filled with Schadenfreude. Or you post to promote your own blog. You do that again and I will ban your ass for good.

    I'm in no mood to take shit. Had he posted charts and analysis it would have been great. But no, he only comes here to gloat – what an asshole.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Ouch. Covered almost everything before the rally, but I held my puts on FSLR and GOOG as well as my FXP and EEV calls.

    I appreciate the charts you posted today because they helped me determine my exit points. I'm still in diapers (literally after today) when it comes to EW, but from a macro standpoint I can't deterine what this rally is based on other than pure TA.

    This market is going to go lower than hell (and soon)…….of that I am certain. Citibank is single digits and we'll be throwing money at that, the Treasury auction on Monday was a disaster and we have Beavis and Butthead (Ben/Hank) destroying the global monetary system. Can anyone offer up a good reason for a sustained rally? Just one good reason?

    Sorry. Just ranting.

    Mole, how's it looking for Gold? I'm ready to start stocking up on some coins.

    Jan

  • molecool

    1+ Hope it works out for you.

  • http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com beanieville

    lol

    I just gave ya the chart, fool.

    The Batwings Formation. Ever heard of it?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    But I'm already preparing my call candidates. I'll make back what I lost today.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    +2 ! Made my day! Wish I had seen that before I posted my rant.

    Thanks for all your hard work Mole and Berk.

    Jan

  • pgrychah

    Decided to grow a pair and bought FXP at the close. Get conflicting results with my indicators (still show sell) and structure FXI formed. Notice how it always got stopped at 27. Looks like bear flag to me.
    http://api.ning.com/files/houRLDSgneSicvjlMjb6n

  • toad37

    I was tempted too… but this may continue for the first hour tomorrow…. That was CRAZY!!

  • molecool

    Nope, never heard of it. Anyone else here familiar with that one? Only reference I find online is Beanie's blog and I don't count that one.

  • ZigZag

    Even after today, my favorite SPX zigzag pattern is still signaling lower..

    http://tinyurl.com/6edd5x

  • molecool

    That's it – Beanie has been banned. Had to follow suit on Tim on that one – he was right – Beanie is an asshole.

  • jp

    Don't know whether the vasoline joke has made you laugh or if it was this ridiculous market. True fool – I stayed in my shorts which have now given me a wedgie. Oh well there is always your updates and tomorrow to trade out of my mess. thanks for the great charts today

  • molecool

    You're down pointing me? Make up for it right now!!!

  • molecool

    I usually have a lot of tolerance but there are a select few who only seem to come here to troll.

  • molecool

    You're forgiven – sorry if I took you for a beanie (who really IS an asshole). Maybe it was your timing – at least try to add a comment on what your thoughts are next time. Anyway, water under the bridge – I'm getting drunk now.

  • b_rad

    What a douche bag.

  • molecool

    Say again? Wie bitte?

  • molecool

    Well, I'm in cash now – so I'll trade it which ever it swings. However, with expiration week coming up the MMs might just decide to ride the market up/down a few times. I may step aside for a week – not sure yet.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Damb, pass that Vaseline, it was supposed to be a piss not a reaming.

  • b_rad

    2 things:

    1) Visual representation of the current state of affairs: http://www.screencast.com/t/eL7wP7ZjhFn

    2) Something to take your mind off of this for a second: http://www.catswhothrowupgrass.com

    Both worthy of a peek imho.

  • Erikd

    I think its our German heritage that got in the way today. Prost

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Mole.
    Did you remove my comment too?

  • Neon

    Hello guys, great site.
    I see a perfect parallel channel on the SnP and Dow. (Oct 14th is 'A', Oct 28th is 'B', etc)
    The Elliot Wave people were calling for a triangle but now it looks like it's parallel.
    Are we heading towards 'E' in a few days? Does this set up for a big crash?
    Thanks!

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Were you yelling, “boo” or “boo-urns?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fx5Wsm7Us3c

    Bad day for me too…but I keep 'em small because of moments like this so I live to trade another day. We'll make it back.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I have a SPY put but I'm not too confident. My plan is to scalp what I can tomorrow and look seriously into calls. The weekend meeting of the 20 dudes coupled with expiration week bias spells rally from hell IMHO.

  • Whatsabi

    The Japanese Yen Currency etf, FXY, is down about 1.5% since the US market closed today. Quite a dip for after-hours from what I can see on the chart. Is this bullish for US equity markets for tomorrow? This is my first post. Sorry but I don't know how to post charts yet, otherwise I would post the FXY intraday chart. Anyone know how the Yen furures are doing at the moment?

  • gagelle

    Sould there be a counter move on 2sweets site? I'm not too good with inputting the correct numbers.

  • de3600

    check out scc chart and the srs chart its the same chart lol it trades almost to the T

  • de3600

    cool glad you took puts on itwhen that pig gets into the 175 -190 range as i just found out oon scc they crash hard almost a tell tale sign the market is going to rally any day

  • de3600

    Oh and my thoughts on the rut going to 520 540 could be a double top/ fslr forming the right shoulder 135 140 and back down

  • Gumbo YaYa

    'Crazy.'

    On a serious note, why do you want to step in front of that bull freight train right now off of such a key level? If anything wait for a signal it is weakening…I didn't see one of those today. Maybe tomorrow.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Please be sure to post your EOD indicators tonight…thanks.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    yeah, it did already…

    just to clarify, for everyone here, “the most frequent reversal level” is not the Holy Grail…

    it is just the place where statistically a reversal is more frequent, but as you all can see there are more levels above that one…

    trading is a game of trials… we try here, we try there…

    if I didn't insist in tryin to go long at each support level, I will not be sitting now on 911-832=79 points x contract (ESZ8)

    I am going to short all the SPX levels above 895, one by one, in the next days, I can bet a Ferrari that I will again this game, before we get to 1148.

    Anyone wants to bet with me?

    c'mon, I need a new car…

  • Growler

    FSLR

    just doing a little experimenting and thought the MOSC may have some clues.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Growler52/folde

    Best,

    G

  • Gumbo YaYa

    At the risk of being banned, I smell a triple bottom with a break of SPX 1000 before the next big leg down.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    A freight train indeed.  So I'll be quick to get out.  Here's what I was looking at.  I'm fully prepared to go into calls tomorrow…compiling my list tonight.

    http://screencast.com/t/WK1v9FoIR

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Completely legit thought. I'm preparing for it. But in the meantime, after the incredible rally, check out how incredibly high the CME Globex futures are trading. For what it's worth…

    http://screencast.com/t/2gHss3YvZ

  • angus_mc

    A few observation from ES / NQ charts:

    (1) Ending diagonal 5th looks very likely

    (2) 912 ES / 1245 NQ touch on resistance downtrend line (60 min chart), also 912 is 50% retracement of 1008-917.
    They should pull back near this level, but this should not lead to new lows (just a pullback setting up for a rally to a higher high)

    (3) 975 ES / 1340 NQ touch on IT downtrend line (daily chart), this should be the 2nd top of the ending diagonal and should lead to lower lows (below 816.75 ES)

    (4) Targets for ending diagonal bottom would be in the range of 770 ES / 1000 NQ (must allow for a throwover – fakedown at the bottom of the support lines)

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Ladies and gents, this rally has clarified the wave count substantially. It is the moment where the market finally is forced to tip it's hand, and as someone who values EWaves, I am happy at least for that.

    It has all the hallmarks of a Wave C of a flat (wave 4) 'short squeeze' rally.

    Thankfully, I didn't have my ass in the orange juicer, but was all in cash. My thoughts are with those that were short. Hope you lived to fight another day…

    …because if it's a C wave, then that day is coming very soon, most likely in the vicinity of 1050 (the end point of wave A).

    In hindsight, the B wave that ended today had characteristics that marked it as a B wave. Scary (big negative breadth), but low volume. Poor internals such as this are very common in B waves of flats. (FYI, this is one reason why Prechter might be correct that the 'bull' market from 2003-07 was a huge B wave… crap fundamentals).

    The price action also coughed up more juicy bit of info. For example, we posted new SPX lows below 10/10, but on poor volume, followed by a spike on big buying volume. That more or less proves that 10/10 was NOT a capitulation bottom, and so it naturally follows that new lows are to be expected in the longer term. This adds further support to the notion that we are now in a C wave of a flat.

    This C wave will be vicious and swift. It will probably terminate around opEx next week (a number of others I respect e.g. Atilla, are of the same view even though they are not into EW).

    There will be some scary reversals… into which I will be buying.

    But what I'm most looking forward to is shorting this sucker towards the end. Target SPX < 700 (hat tip again to Atilla). Then there's a good chance we'll have an IT bottom at hand (end of the big wave 1 down) and I plan to get long.

    Hope this analysis helps.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Angus,

    The same angus from xTrends, yah? Hope you're doing ok, dude.

    I would urge you to consider the C wave scenario (of a flat). I've tried to find an ending diagonal that looks decent, but my eyes don't see one. Maybe my eyes are wonky, though.

    IMO the next best alternative after a flat is a 'descending triangle'.

    Just my two cents.

    Cheers

  • de3600

    Throw your charts out forget it cramer is a king bear more the reason to go bulltard fora few days .They should take this guy off the air altho it is a good comedy show

  • Erikd

    charts? just kidding thanks for your input earlier.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Here's a dumb question…how many here knew the President was going to be making a speech about the economy today?
    I may have traded differently had I known that.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thanks for your thoughts.If you are right then we would have to see a 100 point advance on the spx soon to 1000

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    yea i heard that today. Good sign that we rally hard like Johneeboy says. That cramer is pathedic

  • molecool

    Excellent stuff Johnee – my thoughts are very similar actually. Again, Berk will do the update tonight but you should find it very compatible with what you are describing.

  • molecool

    NOPE – why? What happened?

  • molecool

    Me or him?

  • de3600

    I did I like bush he is far from perfect but i knew he would rally the market.Also he gave a great speech not like the days your working hard to put food on your family.Love him or hate him i have never seen one president deal with the shit storm since the day 9/11 and when you live in new york like i do you kinda understand some of the postions he took.

  • molecool

    Yes, Yen dropping, TNX and crude rallying is pretty bullish for equities. I'd treat carefully – we need to gauge those indicators tomorrow before we decide which way we jump in.

  • de3600

    Also no polictal bs resopnse from anyone I dont want a war on the board.Remeber i said he is far from perfect alot of blame to go everywhere

  • Erikd

    will be day trading it into options expiration next friday.

  • b_rad

    him, of course. We are on the same team.

  • b_rad

    I posted it here around noon. Should have used exclamation points eh?

  • b_rad

    Japan to loan the IMF $100 Billion, effect on Yen?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I knew this morning, but when has bushy ever brought the market up? I will talk about what it was later…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Good call my man… More on this later.

    Skål!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I think one disappeared…Oh well~…Or maybe I am imagining that I wrote one…..

  • C.C. Rider

    Good stuff. I'm thinking the same now. I offloaded a half position at the low today at great profits, but got greedy and set the other half for a limit sell too low (this regular job is costing me money). I think tomorrow we get a headfake pullback, and then rally as you say thru opex and probably thru early December. Tax loss selling will hit like a firestorm in second half December. If you blow thru 1050 on the S&P, wave B up has started.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    IMHO, it rallied because “the market” liked the bit about the value of a free market economy instead of the whole bailout, bailout, bailout bit.
    “Capitalist on the way up, Socialist on the way down.”

  • angus_mc

    johneeboy,

    yes it could be either one
    i'm looking at the futures index, not the cash index
    you may be right
    i don't think i will wait until 1050 though, i will scale in earlier with options, i don't want to miss this one

    wasn't peter going to give an update tonight given that the EWI crew is in new orleans tomorrow? i don't see any updates yet

    p.s. are you sure the “masterguru” consents with your visit here?? ::))

  • jch

    Hi Mole & Berk,

    Just wondering if you guys look at futures charts? There seems to be a clear ending diagonal formed since 11/4 through today's low on the es. It doesn't show up in the cash market. Don't know if it would clear-up the wave counts.

    Sorry, I don't know how/where to post charts.

  • sibekp

    Berk, don't you think that the most possible people could be hurt by a drop tomorrow? Most “shorts” got shaken out and everyone jumped in “long” today. Carter Worth was spewing how they were “all in” and the NYSE floor was drinking champaigne after hours (yes on tv). Everyone seems to think we have a short rally from here… but every time we bounce off 8200 the rallies get shorter. Everytime there is another bailout…like Japan tonight w/ 100 Billion bailout the rallies get shorter.

    I think the Asian and Europe markets will all weaken towards close. A rally seems too obvious now… like its a rule of thumb that we bounce off of 8200 low,…. I call BS on this rally this time around and I think the markets will too…

    I cleared my positions today… not trying to push a bearish case.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I forgot to give you +2. i got long uyg at 6.70 but i was short qqqq. covered q's. I see it now. I guess we cant bash Erikd ..He was right on today.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    i wish you didn't show that chart of the q's I was short that.:(

  • Desperado

    I have been in the background for a while and I feel your pain. I only can only say wow. At the end of the day I needed a towel. I would like to make a suggestion to those who are going net long or short. Buy either the oom Vix calls (if net long) or the puts (if net short). You will get some protection in the event of a day like today. Several days ago I bought the Nov 50P at .60 and today they were worth 1.10. It allowed me to stay in my some of my puts and weather this upcoming reversal. Who knows, if the market rockets from here quickly and I mean by say Tuesday (exp date) I might be able to recover what I lost today and be in possession to reshort when the spx hits 980 or so. I am very confident that we will be heading back down but everyone has to keep in mind nothing goes straight up or down. Thats why everyone needs to hedge their bets via the vix. It has worked for me everytime! I appreciate everyones efforts and I thought I would add my 2 cents and share mostly everyones misery. Making money is never easy!

  • Desperado

    Lets delete that extra “only” lol. Note to self: Proofread before submission

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    I'm a hairs breadth from cancelling my STU subscription. Most times I
    can tell what counts he's gonna put on stuff just because I've read his
    stuff for so long and know what Steve 'wants' to see. But occasionally
    he brings up some other useful data, so I'll stick with it for now.

    I also subscribe to the Global Market Perspective. That's got some good
    stuff in it.

    I'm pretty confident it's a C wave, but there are other options like the
    one you describe.

    I usually find the ES doesn't give clear counts. I find the cash index
    holds more EW-friendly data.

    All the best catching this one.

    John

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I was looking at the weekly bar chart of the dow. I dont see a Fith wave at todays lows. I will agree with Jonhnee that this rally is wave c rally. But we have to go below todays lows sometime to count the clear five ways on a weekley chart.

    http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp

    I wish i had your prophet charts stuff. Hopefully you can see the waves

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    damm for some reason the link is not coming up with it. I think people can follow what i am talking about.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    see new post. I believe the same thing Johnee does as well. My top three counts are on the table right now.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    CLEAN CUPS!!

    Skål!

  • de3600

    Sad part is bush never wanted the bailout he wanted the markets to work it out both repubs and dems scared the bgebs out of with thos global collaspe

  • molecool

    I disagree with Peter's analysis on various levels – a big part is the massive volume on this 'consolidation'. Well, i think Berk made it clear in tonight's analysis.

  • molecool

    Glad you decided to stick around, Erik.

  • molecool

    All day baby – all day – I'm watching every tick right now. But more for momentum's sake – futures are a lot harder to read in terms of EWT waves. Part of that, IMHO only, is that they are being heavily manipulated by primary dealers banging the markets into their direction (like today).

  • molecool

    Nice – thanks for sharing that, mate. BTW, there is no shame in cash 😉

  • molecool

    BTW, there is an 'edit' button after you posted. It stays there unless somebody responded to it. So, you can edit your post afterward – no problem at all.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Thought I saw u post months ago on SOH 😉 Thanks for sharing your insight. Though I must say I have a similar but a bit different strategy to lessen my losses in a wide intraday spread like this.
    Love the name, I mean the song, lol: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umw1-Do3-ho

  • Erikd

    You can't run off your first visitor that made the first blog posting here when you and berkshire started this community in the very beginning!

  • etechpartner

    Thanks appreciate the candor.

  • etechpartner

    Now thats pretty cool – mainly because I picture New Orleans and Louisiana based on your handle, Love Gumbo ! Love it, Love creole / soul food,

  • Gumbo YaYa

    You are man with good taste!

    Yes, I am a New Orleans native residing in ATL. Cajun/creole food is the bomb.

  • etechpartner

    Thanks appreciate the candor.

  • etechpartner

    Now thats pretty cool – mainly because I picture New Orleans and Louisiana based on your handle, Love Gumbo ! Love it, Love creole / soul food,

  • Gumbo YaYa

    You are man with good taste!

    Yes, I am a New Orleans native residing in ATL. Cajun/creole food is the bomb.