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ISEE Update
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ISEE Update

by The MoleMarch 10, 2010

Last night I came home quite late and finally the ISE had updated their latest ISEE chart. So I was up until 2:00am importing the updated data into my Exel chart so that I could start looking for new patterns (the JS chart the ISE offers gives me a headache).

So, as you can see we closed at a record reading of 253 in equities only yesterday. That is quite insane and on the surface you’d expect some kind of reversal soon.

However, I am also looking at the 10-day MA of the equities only ISEE and based on what I’m seeing long term reversals only occur when both a record reading in the raw data and a new high in the 10-day MA coincide. I have taken the liberty to highlight such occurrences on both charts. Whenever we only get a fast spike up we might go down day or two but it does not assure that a big reversal is coming.

Quite apparent from the 10-day MA chart plotted against the SPX above is that we are not even close to new a new high. What’s even worse is careful analysis of what happened during the first half of the recent run up. As you can see the ISEE kept dropping as retail traders were trading the downside, just as proposed in one of my updates a few weeks back. Many retail bears assumed that we were merely correcting and thus started ‘selling the rip’.

What has now ensued is the exact opposite. Retail bears got violently manhandled and squeezed out of their positions (again) as equities continued their short squeeze to the upside (again). Suddenly everyone is going long which might present us with a short term reversals but based on the 10-day MA reading in correlation with some of the other charts I have shared in the past few days I simply do not see the bearish case here. My December puts would love to see me being proven wrong – but thus far I unfortunately am being proven right.

Bottom Line: I am not surprised about today’s tape after yesterday’s 253 reading in the ISEE equities only chart. Based on recent history record readings precede a drop by a few days. I now expect a quick reversal followed by a final ramp up to new 2010 highs, as this third wave continues to sub-divide.

Console yourselves by the fact that life is a bitch and then you die. Feel better now? 😉

UPDATE: You guys ought to take a look at this guy’s take on the ISEE reading – quite fascinating – great work. Hat tip to Royal With Cheese for that link.

I have updated the ISEE chart to reflect the 2007 SPX high. Note that we are several hundred points below that historic reading and we are now pushing into record territory. Now, I agree with him that we probably bust a big higher first before we roll over. That would throw all the remaining bears a huge curve ball – yes, the market is a cruel mistress.

Finally – here is the updated 10-day MA chart correlated with the SPX. Fascinating picture – let’s see if we get this dog all the way up to the 210 mark.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    dontblong

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    as long as she is a pretty bitch

  • johnny

    dow jones would like to borrow ur avatar picture

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks Mole for taking the time to put the charts together. Curiously, VIX is actually UP today. Bulls must be buying some protection. Maybe a drop is in order before another rump job, as you say.

  • johnny

    anybody watching aussie – dollar chart , looks like gone crazy

  • Schwerepunkt

    I just got the willies when I looked at a weekly SPX chart. A 50/200 golden cross could happen on the weekly as early as June-July. 200 is currently at 1226 and falling slowly, while 50 is at 1017 and rising faster.

    We got that 50/200 golden cross on the daily chart last June-July when SPX was around 900. Here we are 250-pts later and we could be in for another buying orgy just 50-pts higher from here. Food for thought. Or not.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    Mole, Nice analysis.

    What happened to the June SPY puts that you bought in Oct last year?

  • alexdg

    Mole, “I now expect a quick reversal followed by a final ramp up to new 2010 highs, as this third wave continues to sub-divide.”, any reference support levels for the SPX on that reversal?

  • ricebowl

    A while ago someone was talking about SPX possibly overthrowing into the 1170s. Were that to happen relatively soon, a golden cross may not occur.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Mole, thank you for staying up.
    I'm glad that's cleared up.
    (church mouse mode on).

  • Alpha

    So, it is too much to ask for a 20pt selloff to back test 1123/1125?

    If you ask me, the worst case near term scenario is another algo creep to like 1147 and another “jumping the creek” event during afterhours that screws any bears thinking now is the time to get short.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Dos Equis most interesting man in the world. Yup, they love night jumps.

  • Schwerepunkt

    MAs tend to smooth out so the 50 and the 200 could flatten and not meet for a long time. But it certainly must be a target bulls would dearly like to achieve.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Thanks mole – always appreciate the update. On the 2-hr chart of $SPX, if you look at the RSI, today we had the 6th sell signal in a row without a buy signal in between (reversals always happened before reaching oversold levels).

    My general theory about oscillating indicators is that each successive sell signal without a buy signal in between makes it more likely that the next sell signal will reach the opposite end of the spectrum. Depending on the indicator, you get a feel for how many in a row is abnormal. For the RSI in the last 60 days, 4 or 5 times was the max. 6 seems like we're due for a reversal.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

    If the 6th time is the charm here, then I'm thinking somewhere between the 30 EMA and the 60 EMA is a good reversal. That would put us between 1120-1131.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Have not really thought about it but it would only be a sub-division – so it should not be very much.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Flipped them for Decembers as theta burn really started to kick in.

  • Scoops

    How does one reconcile the fact that we are in the process of painting a motive wave from the 2009 lows.

  • bobthehorse

    That was me. It was my euphoric high scenario but I abandoned it in January. I don't think it will happen to be honest.

  • amokta

    a lot of whip-whip-whipping and saw-saw-sawing today
    Could this portend the imminent start of P3 (!?!)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You're right – one could easily read the tape that way. The horror – the horror….

  • amokta

    Hey, Prechter will re-label it retro-spectively, pretend that thats how they always called it, and say how wonderful they are at forecasting!

  • johnny

    as you have shown in ISEE chart that retail bears hv been squeezed , then i would like to ask that what % of retailers do short !! and even if some of them do short on positional basis then do you think they are running shorts from 1040-1140 ,i dont think so .its plain manipulation of market by a bull cartel who have got enough resources to screw any bear cartel.

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    Yo Mole !
    I made a post regarding that reading the Call/Put Ratio with a S&P comparison of Oct 2007 and now. Here it is FWIW :
    http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/03/ise-c
    My position : Life is a muschi and then you eat it !! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, their biggest fault is that they continue to disregard bullish scenarios. They of course always mention it and cover their ass as any analyst needs to do. But just look at your own account – has their analysis helped you bank coin in the past six months?

    Again, I do believe in their long term outlook but they are not doing themselves a favor by continuously disregarding the bullish case. What then happens is a bear squeeze over and over and over again. If Prechter's followers wouldn't be so stubbornly bearish there would be nobody to squeeze. I think the ISEE chart is a great reflection of what really is happening and that a few big players are swinging the tape any way they want.

    Retail Trader —-> wealth transfer —–> Big fat connected cats.

    That's pretty much the diagram of how the market works right now. Was always the case – granted – but now it's so blatant – they're not even trying to be subtle anymore.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can appreciate that positions – especially in respect to debutant muschi.

  • texpresso

    as we used to say in the oilfield, “no shit!”. any time there are enough shorts to profitably take out, then big money will take it out– if i had enough money i would do it too

  • texpresso

    as we used to say in the oilfield, “no shit!”. any time there are enough shorts to profitably take out, then big money will take it out– if i had enough money i would do it too

  • johnny

    good money can be made if i take out some longs out of mkt , logically if i was running a cartel i would conduct a bear raid and make take mkt down 4-5% in matter of hours as the mkt is too overbought

  • ricebowl

    Futures are selling off… just barely green right now…

  • johnny
  • ricebowl

    Really neat…

    How are you computing the call/put ratio if you don't mind my asking? I mean, what specifically are you sampling for volume?

  • amokta

    Thanks! My short positions are not huge, but one thing i have learnt is that its better to get out, and try again, and use stops etc. I need to work on 'going long' and add that to my 'armoury'!

  • gatopeich

    Thanks for the update, Mole. I hope you will get used to us spoiling your time!

  • texpresso

    done that on volatile small caps. forget the cartel, that is not the point– anticipate the market manipulation and make money from it instead of fighting it

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    RELOAD PAGE!!

  • johnny

    i m neither fighting the trend nor complaining about the move ,i am just trying to point out that the path of least resistance may not be on upside as of now , things may be different after 20-30 pt sell off

  • gatopeich

    If I was running such big cartel, I would stake that action for the moment I could use it to make me more powerful. Not doing it actually makes me more powerfull. For example if I ever needed to smack Obambi on the face, again, for being disobedient. Or suppose I have a new 'candidate'…
    At any rate, those guys have trillions already, and think of themselves as gods, not casino owners.

  • alexdg

    Sent you email to admin@es, have you had a chance to take a look?
    Nice update with spx data.

  • ricebowl

    Nevermind; ignore me. It would be helpful if I read.

  • jacksoo

    Hi mole – i don't get why the price position is important – it surely is only a relative point of reference – if you reviewed the chart prior to those 279/275 levels it wld look the same i.e. price levels to the left higher.

  • amokta

    ewi are takingg longer than normal to come out with todays stu.
    maybe they are busy relabeling!

  • johnny

    lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Say what?

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    Trying out a new tactic—
    Look for a stock that has pulled back 2.5%, like CLF, and then go long, and on the exit, look for a higher high. use a 1% stop loss.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Mole, without disregarding royale's work, may I sugest you go back to 2003 on that comparison? I got killed trying comparisons with 2007 before i strted going earlier (e.g. bpspx) I'm afraid we might be sooner than we thought …

  • OldChicago

    Nice article. Thanks. I checked out Helen M. Her latest article titled “Too soon to call an intermediate top” after “Put/Call” report. I don't have subscription to Realmoney website. Do you know what she said? Thanks!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Hamster Time!

    IN A NUTSHELL

    I keep yesterday's view so far, up, but we might have a bottom tomorrow

    FRUITCAKE

    BPSPX still rising, waiting for 84 seems too far away (84 is a gut feeling, way past based, value, no rodent band involved)

    SPX nominal looks like a (iv) of iii right now, or even (ii) of iii, first target 1168

    SPX:GOLD skyrocketing, still more than 3% to rise before meaningful correction, BTW still climbing the upper bb13

    SPX:VIX fell again, something, looks like (ii) of iii up, can drop 5% before finding support

    SPX:CPCE says people don't trust the above…. it fell below major MA's, but SPX:CPCE is volatile as hell, could be understood as (ii) of iii on SPX or as a start of more downside

    VIX once again higher higs and close, lower lows… another day and it will find resistence, if breeched the 22?otherwise say hello to 14.7

    VIX:GOLD even closer to resistence, breached it goes to .020

    GOLD is an excelent LONG (and also a prety good short) on tight stops, personaly i say BUY, it tried to breach ma104 but closed at the line… looks like (iii) of iii is about to start

    GOLD:SLV still going for 6.85 and SLV bounced from our target at 17, 16.4 and 15.8 are the levels to watc

  • OldChicago

    Here another blog on the topics. Good stats too.
    http://www.tradersnarrative.com/option-traders-

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    Thanks. When do you plan to exit?

  • adamantiaf

    You guys have to see this – I compared the last 4 vix candle sticks against those in dec 2007…look at what i found…

    http://vagabondtrading.blogspot.com/2010/03/310

  • elliott_surfs

    me gusta! and look at that MACD gettin' ready to rock…good eyes Adamantiaf

  • Schwerepunkt

    You might have something there.

  • alessiov

    Gold May Finish the Week Smelling Like a Rose

    http://screencast.com/t/NzY2OWRhND

  • biasedsurvivor

    the stats are on your side as well with that ISE reading:
    http://biasedsurvivor.posterous.com/isee-all-eq

  • charles_smith

    Thanks for the update, Mole, certainly food for thought, and it seems like there has to be a catalyst to break the low-volume circle-jerk that is the market.

    The market is a bitch and my account has already nearly died :-) Does that count?

  • alessiov

    I would not be surprised if they puke some contracts tonight

    http://screencast.com/t/ZDI4YTBmZDM

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    News don't matter (for trading), but can be fun!

    some news from the economist (started 20 years ago and i still consider it one of the best)

    trade wars brazil

    http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displ

    Sovereign debt issues

    http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displ

  • Scoops

    I know eh. Oh well, in a way I'm glad things aren't crystal clear. If they
    were you know what would happen. I will say though, that this is not July
    all over again. This is the polar opposite. Just look the volume. Running on
    fumes, and the last of the retail sheep and remaining bears w/o conviction
    getting taken to the slaughterhouse.

  • Scoops

    Ya that's a big axe I have to grind w/them. They forever quote themselves on
    their accurate forecasts but neglect the fact that they fucked so many of
    them up it's not even remotely funny. I still find the information
    worthwhile and very entertaining however, I just don't bet my account on it.
    The EWFF in particular reads like a good thriller.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    So, I am sitting here going through the charts like a madman and what do I see?

    DIA is a GREAT short
    SPY is hanging on the hair, but today's action was damn amazing and it closed under 115.06
    SMH is a REALLY sweet short
    so are a lot of other ETFs…

    but MDY and IWM are skewing the picture…but wait – they are not,
    they just staged their own private war with greater benefits from lately rising dollar
    and guess what…
    they managed to produce complete 5 wave structure off March 2009 lows!!!
    and in spite of following upside targets
    MDY 150 and IWM 72
    they 2 (two or too or thou) are short now!!!

  • skynard

    ES getting whacked right now, was -3 this morning and feeling much better now.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet
  • Anonymous

    No bearish case, hmmm. This level of outperformance by the NAZ is not bullish. You have yet to break the highs-and until you do… Comparing price and volume movement it’s quite clear there is a TON of distribution going on-I doubt it’s mom and dad. Equity PC screaming sell. And last but not least-you capitulated.

  • kokoro33

    spot of trouble on the hill, sir

    The Last of the V8 Interceptors
    $OEX
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/mo_chi_chu

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bears – don't worry – be happy

    watch Russian Hot Options Babes
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pD_pq6qxM

  • yudhisthira

    At least it's a start. Wish the dollar would kick in more.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I thought I'll share some charts – I am one of those de-Generous types

    20 min SPX
    http://screencast.com/t/MThjMTU5Z

    daily SPX
    http://screencast.com/t/OTA5ZDcz

  • alessiov

    jobs – upside +5 to 8 pts / downside -16 to 30

    ES is up 60+ pts since last jobs #, based on ES market behavior during the last 3 months, + or – 60 pts should retrace 50%

    where is the risk? to the upside or downside?

    http://screencast.com/t/NGUwYWVhZDIt

  • PeterK80

    Thanks for your work mole. If you take a peak at Cobra's site he has some great stuff up on The CBOE and short term reversal signals

  • ricebowl

    ES was flat overnight, yet we rallied at the open. Don't count your chickens before they hatch!

    I will admit though that I too am happy to see red for a change!

  • skynard

    We need to loose 1136 support and then 1131 to get things rolling. You are right though!

  • sirgiyan

    Just to cheerup those who is still here and haven't seen this video :)

  • sirgiyan
  • AudioTactics

    Thanks for the charts but I'm not sure how to interpret them…

    What are they telling you?

    TIA

  • bananaben

    Mole – fantastic post. You are our guide in a very, very cruel world. This bear for one is now only 15% short and anticipating a move up toward 1200 – heaven forbid any more. Time to stay disciplined. Just speculating but this plateau at the 1038-1045 level may be just another trap to lure bears into thinking that they are getting in at the top only to resume the climb next week.

  • bobthehorse

    If this short bet of mine is going to work it has to be today. A double top yesterday of immense exactitude on ESH0, bad Chinese data out overnight, showing some RSI divergence on the hourly, a TD setup 9 count on the daily, a huge array of risk indicators showing we are turned up to 11. We can ask no more.

    It is worth remembering we are still in a valid monthly 9 count and weekly 13 on the TD Combo from January which are generally pretty powerful. This is not the time to fold your bets in my opinion. Stay strong, stay short.

  • jacksoo

    hi bob – -i assume you mean at the least a lower high/low to be recorded on a daily as opposed to a sell off? Perhaps a run from now into next week that might see 100pts taken off?

  • bobthehorse

    You always need some sort of trigger to kick off a selling begets selling free-flowing move. A breach of 1138 on ESH0 should do it. Without that, buyers can be complacent and they are right to be so.

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    Thanks for putting up my link on your post !
    We have a war to win ….. let's go get'em !! 😉

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    well basically it said that what Mole says ! A short term pullback before a final run up to new highs for the big top we have all been waiting for !

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    I juts did not understand your question …

  • bobthehorse

    AAII survey just out, Bear Index at 25 – mkt normally tops at levels that low

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX..2 hr chart..bullish or bearish..I am leaning to finishing the correction off Feb 5 lows..

    http://www.screencast.com/t/N2IxM2UxMjI
    Main feature on chart is break of rising wedge..USUALLY bearish
    we are at 78.6% retrace of the fall from 11 Jan
    DAX usually (I think!) LEADS world indices and no new high (yet),

    Any “expert” elliott wavers out there with a decent count plus alts? Mine are “amateur” and “drawn by eye”!
    BUT rally from Feb 25th looks “impulsive” so a C wave or a iii?

  • gatopeich

    Good morning, Vietnam! See those red candles? Well, don't get euphoric yet!!!

    GMAK, you around?
    I simplified your candle-form idea a little bit, I would like to discuss it…
    I am using only 3 zones for open and close: low, mid, and high. It is a cuality model rather than a quantity model like yours. So I get less cases (3×3=9!), and I believe they are easier to analyze and (thus) safer for risk evaluation.

    I have published the results on an online spreadsheet, so you select ranges and see their probability summed up in the status bar (like in Excel): http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjGgvW8
    Sorry guys, the full data series since 1962 is too big for Google docs to import (or process), so I have just put the last months so you get an idea. And the handy-dandy probabilities, eh!

    Most notable findings:

    * Opens and closes are either well-centered in the candle, or at the extremes. They definitely don't like being around 25% or 85% of the lo-hi range.

    * Prob of a midopen-midclose after another mid-mid (22-22) (what happened yesterday) = 51%, more than 50 is a lot in conditioned probs! (Choppy days tend to repeat?)

    Thanks, gmak for the original idea, and I hope I contributed something today!

    BTW, let me prognosticate today's SPX candle… Guess what, it could easily (51%) be another mid-mid. Will range up and down, and close nearer to the open than to any extreme. Chop-chop!

  • gatopeich

    Tks! A more unprofessional one: my Spanish bullish-bias site of reference (Bolsamania) has finally turned bullish today. They were doubtful yesterday morning.
    Their news content is provided by the Spanish market operator. Not GS but they make more money the more the market moves.

  • gatopeich

    Morning catracho!

    Maybe DAX is a leader, but IBEX is preceding it in the down movement for one candle in my 10-min chart. IBEX already hit high bollinger and is drawing a possible 'pause before reverse' candle.

    Anyway, IBEX is too volatile and will end up bending the DAX's way.

  • gatopeich

    Hmmm, is disqus working today? I get no updates…

    Anyway, I just wanted to celebrate the first live signal given by my implementation of Teresa Appleton's simple future trading strategy: http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/2903/jshot.png

    Yes, it is a “Sell DAX” 😉

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    R U saying that bolsamania is a contra indicator?

  • tradejane

    Not so fast…

    PS. Yes, you got it, the banks are up and running again.

  • gatopeich

    It actually got stopped at the very next bar :-(. But not bad for my first strategy.

  • gatopeich

    Not exactly a contra. But they have been warning about a possible strong pullback for a few days, and just today stopped worrying.
    And they usually see the news from the bullish side, so they could be contra for bull to bear turns.

  • gatopeich

    But it was obviously a too tight stop. 0.1 DAX points to be precise, or 0.0017%. Need to tweak that trailing stop…

  • gmak

    I'm just starting to get my act together Great stuff from the sounds of things. I'll try to take a look at the spreadsheet. The simplification idea is a good one – and probably where I'll wind up eventually. You're a bit fast for me. I want to see what everything looks liike from the detail to simplification, in series, for better understanding (how my mind works – no flash, just plodding. :-)

    I'll check on your prognostication as soon as I get my files open. Let's see what II get.

    Good job!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    seems a bit “sticky”..or it's very quiet disqus..I mean

  • tradejane

    Not bad at all. :)

    Unfortunately the indexes are just teasing with the bears at the moment. “Short me! I'm so weak, so overbought, so ready to topple over really! EZ money!”

    Only to turn around and bust one's account with a 2×4.

    The good news is Comedybank finally reached (and was repelled by) an important resistance. Lets see if it stays that way.

  • alexdg

    It seems to be working, people just aren't posting that much. :)

  • alexdg

    Will it all happen in pre-market? Some economic newswire being the excuse to move the market?

    8:30 PM Initial Jobless Claims, period Mar-06, exp. 450K, prev. 469K
    8:30 PM Continuing Claims, period Feb-27, exp. – , prev. 4500K

  • amokta

    Please Prepare – my proprietry CB (Crystal Ball) indicator suggests P3 begins today.
    The futures are down already.

  • skynard

    If we see -300 points on the Dow today maybe I'll believe you. GL
    How accurate is that indicator by the way.

  • alessiov

    hey, everything would be much easier if u started using the tardis.

  • amokta

    Hold on, let me polish the dust off – i can see clearer now…the lottery number for today are….oh dear my keyboard just gone faulty – cant type the numerics :)

  • tradejane

    my proprietry CB (Crystal Ball)

    Yes, but is it Swarovski like mine?

  • Onorio

    Didn`t P3 started months ago? I remember to hear that somewhere….

  • amokta

    Just plain Glass! On that subjest, i couldn understand all the rage my sisters had about swarovski, as its only glass – clearly there are many things i dont understand !

  • amokta

    The start date of P3 can come and go depending on the latest news letter from EWI!

    Anyway, the question is whether a top is in, but perhaps it better to try to trade without relying on picking major tops

  • gmak

    I've caved into pressure to change the title. heh.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14859&success

    NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST
    b>NEW POST

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    Thanks for putting up my link on your post !
    We have a war to win ….. let's go get'em !! 😉

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    well basically it said that what Mole says ! A short term pullback before a final run up to new highs for the big top we have all been waiting for !

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Royal With Cheese

    I juts did not understand your question …

  • bobthehorse

    AAII survey just out, Bear Index at 25 – mkt normally tops at levels that low

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX..2 hr chart..bullish or bearish..I am leaning to finishing the correction off Feb 5 lows..

    http://www.screencast.com/t/N2IxM2UxMjI
    Main feature on chart is break of rising wedge..USUALLY bearish
    we are at 78.6% retrace of the fall from 11 Jan
    DAX usually (I think!) LEADS world indices and no new high (yet),

    Any “expert” elliott wavers out there with a decent count plus alts? Mine are “amateur” and “drawn by eye”!
    BUT rally from Feb 25th looks “impulsive” so a C wave or a iii?

  • gatopeich

    Good morning, Vietnam! See those red candles? Well, don't get euphoric yet!!!

    GMAK, you around?
    I simplified your candle-form idea a little bit, I would like to discuss it…
    I am using only 3 zones for open and close: low, mid, and high. It is a cuality model rather than a quantity model like yours. So I get less cases (3×3=9!), and I believe they are easier to analyze and (thus) safer for risk evaluation.

    I have published the results on an online spreadsheet, so you select ranges and see their probability summed up in the status bar (like in Excel): http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjGgvW8
    Sorry guys, the full data series since 1962 is too big for Google docs to import (or process), so I have just put the last months so you get an idea. And the handy-dandy probabilities, eh!

    Most notable findings:

    * Opens and closes are either well-centered in the candle, or at the extremes. They definitely don't like being around 25% or 85% of the lo-hi range.

    * Prob of a midopen-midclose after another mid-mid (22-22) (what happened yesterday) = 51%, more than 50 is a lot in conditioned probs! (Choppy days tend to repeat?)

    Thanks, gmak for the original idea, and I hope I contributed something today!

    BTW, let me prognosticate today's SPX candle… Guess what, it could easily (51%) be another mid-mid. Will range up and down, and close nearer to the open than to any extreme. Chop-chop!

  • gatopeich

    Tks! A more unprofessional one: my Spanish bullish-bias site of reference (Bolsamania) has finally turned bullish today. They were doubtful yesterday morning.
    Their news content is provided by the Spanish market operator. Not GS but they make more money the more the market moves.

  • gatopeich

    Morning catracho!

    Maybe DAX is a leader, but IBEX is preceding it in the down movement for one candle in my 10-min chart. IBEX already hit high bollinger and is drawing a possible 'pause before reverse' candle.

    Anyway, IBEX is too volatile and will end up bending the DAX's way.

  • gatopeich

    Hmmm, is disqus working today? I get no updates…

    Anyway, I just wanted to celebrate the first live signal given by my implementation of Teresa Appleton's simple future trading strategy: http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/2903/jshot.png

    Yes, it is a “Sell DAX” 😉

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    R U saying that bolsamania is a contra indicator?

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Not so fast…

    PS. Yes, you got it, the banks are up and running again.

  • gatopeich

    It actually got stopped at the very next bar :-(. But not bad for my first strategy.

  • gatopeich

    Not exactly a contra. But they have been warning about a possible strong pullback for a few days, and just today stopped worrying.
    And they usually see the news from the bullish side, so they could be contra for bull to bear turns.

  • gatopeich

    But it was obviously a too tight stop. 0.1 DAX points to be precise, or 0.0017%. Need to tweak that trailing stop…

  • gmak

    I'm just starting to get my act together Great stuff from the sounds of things. I'll try to take a look at the spreadsheet. The simplification idea is a good one – and probably where I'll wind up eventually. You're a bit fast for me. I want to see what everything looks liike from the detail to simplification, in series, for better understanding (how my mind works – no flash, just plodding. :-)

    I'll check on your prognostication as soon as I get my files open. Let's see what II get.

    Good job!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    seems a bit “sticky”..or it's very quiet disqus..I mean

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Not bad at all. :)

    Unfortunately the indexes are just teasing with the bears at the moment. “Short me! I'm so weak, so overbought, so ready to topple over really! EZ money!”

    Only to turn around and bust one's account with a 2×4.

    The good news is Comedybank finally reached (and was repelled by) an important resistance. Lets see if it stays that way.

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    It seems to be working, people just aren't posting that much. :)

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    Will it all happen in pre-market? Some economic newswire being the excuse to move the market?

    8:30 PM Initial Jobless Claims, period Mar-06, exp. 450K, prev. 469K
    8:30 PM Continuing Claims, period Feb-27, exp. – , prev. 4500K

  • amokta

    Please Prepare – my proprietry CB (Crystal Ball) indicator suggests P3 begins today.
    The futures are down already.

  • skynard

    If we see -300 points on the Dow today maybe I'll believe you. GL
    How accurate is that indicator by the way.

  • alessiov

    hey, everything would be much easier if u started using the tardis.

  • amokta

    Hold on, let me polish the dust off – i can see clearer now…the lottery number for today are….oh dear my keyboard just gone faulty – cant type the numerics :)

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    my proprietry CB (Crystal Ball)

    Yes, but is it Swarovski like mine?

  • Onorio

    Didn`t P3 started months ago? I remember to hear that somewhere….

  • amokta

    Just plain Glass! On that subjest, i couldn understand all the rage my sisters had about swarovski, as its only glass – clearly there are many things i dont understand !

  • amokta

    The start date of P3 can come and go depending on the latest news letter from EWI!

    Anyway, the question is whether a top is in, but perhaps it better to try to trade without relying on picking major tops

  • gmak

    I've caved into pressure to change the title. heh.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14859&success

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