It’s Like This…

I didn’t enjoy today’s tape at all and I tell you why:

We either completed a nice motive wave in the Dollar or will do so tomorrow with a final push up into a fifth wave.

That little drop in the Dollar in the afternoon however was massively exploited into the close as we wiped out any downside progress and ended up at square one. Also noteworthy was that all of the large volume candles occurred during up candles, not down candles. As a matter of fact – the volume on the early afternoon theme park ride down to basecamp at 998 was outright pitiful (as evidenced also on the Zero Lite).

Incidentally, today marked the lowest volume on the Spiders of the entire year. Now, a few months ago I would thought – well, no volume, so it seems we’re topping. Yes, maybe – or today was yet another POMO sponsored bear trap – we’ll see by Wednesday.

So, it’s like this, rats: We are fucking overbought on any indicator known to man. We have been popping higher and higher for over five months now. The bears got their balls trapped in razor wire when the now infamous H&S turned out to be a guillotine. We have been churning around sideways and are running out of participation. HOWEVER – even though the Dollar busted higher and seems to have bottomed we only lost three handles in the SPX today and had the session lasted one minute longer we’d ended up in the plus.

What does that tell you? We have not had one single ‘forced sell off’ in the last five months – at least from what I can remember. If we don’t start dropping soon all we’ll get before August OPEX is theta burning sideways consolidation (another reason to pick up some of Fujisan’s spreads). Maybe we’ll see another fucking triangle – whatever. Which is why I went into cash quickly this afternoon. This is not it yet, rats – the bears won’t get it handed on a silver platter but they had their shot and for some reason they’re not going in for the kill. I’d settle for a three day leeching at this point – but no bull blood has been spilled in recent memory.

Until I see some bulltarts reaching for the Tums bottle I’ll be keeping my game very small – no reason to stick my dick into this bear munching wood chipper.

Public Service Announcement: Tomorrow we not only get another POMO but also an FOMC meeting. Boy, will that be a fun day. I’ll probably pop two sleeping pills tonight – wake me up when the churn has settled.