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Just Saying…
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Just Saying…

by The MoleNovember 11, 2009

Hey, did I miss anything? 😉

Just kidding – I have been following the tape on my iPhone mostly with sinister bemusement. Nice gap fill anyone? I’m sure a good number of trigger happy bulltards just got their dicks caught in that one. Yes, when it comes the banking coin those intrepid market makers are equal opportunity slammers – they’ll screw us bears as much as they screw the bulls.

Chart above is a very simple tidbit I wanted to point out today – as the title says: Just saying… but hey, maybe this time it’ll be different 😉

Since I’m a damn yank now (since January 29th, 2009) I would like to wish everyone a Happy Veterans Day! While we are all sitting in the comfort of our home or office trading an admittedly rigged market the perceived pain and suffering we have to endure is minuscule compared with what those brave souls in that picture had to go through to capture that damn hill.

Right now as I’m typing this many of our soldiers (I hate to call them ‘troops’ as they are human beings) are on the battle front risking their life and limb for your country. And they don’t ask for anything in return. They all deserve our utmost gratitude and adoration for their continued courage and dedication, especially in the face of the failed leadership they had to endure in the past few years. Now, get your ass over to dav.org and donate some of your ill gotten gains to a disabled veteran. Since our country is letting them down they need YOUR help!

And our heartfelt gratitude and a huge Thank You to all active duty and reserve military, both past and present.

Berk here…

What happens when the high betas lag the low betas?

High Beta laggards...

High Beta laggards...

1:07pm EDT: Mole here again. Funny Berk just put this chart up – although we have not spoken today – we seem to think alike:

Now, I’m not saying we are not pushing back towards the top today – but look at the subtle signs which are accruing. We all know by now that the Dollar carry trade has been fueling this rally – as evidenced by a left chart of the ES/6E left chart on any chart interval you care looking at. But when I see the Euro weaking while index futures are catching a bid, then I I take notice.

Maybe it’s nothing – but we were outside the 2.0 BB – and I do see interesting divergences all over the place. And I know it almost sounds comedic after another bear trap (which I identified early in the game btw) but this thing is coming apart at its seams. A few divergences here and there are fine but when you have the trannies, the utilities, the XLE, the REITS, the XRT, etc. all lag behind then you know this thing is running on vapor.

I’m thinking long term – I know I seem like a complete idiot right now doing this, but hey – I own my trade.

2:15pm EDT: Since we’re on the topic of the carry trade – Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger posted a very interesting piece which is a brilliant observation in its simplicity:

10 handles came off the S&P 500 in less than 30 minutes (a 1% move) when the dollar strengthened by about two tenths of 1%.

What would be the impact of the dollar moving higher by 10%?

This is the problem with the carry trade.  The leverage that gets deployed, once it gets going, is typically in the range of 5:1, 10:1 or even more compared to the equity markets.  (Absolute leverage in the FX markets is frequently 100:1 – in fact, even retail traders can run 100:1 leverage at most FX brokers!)

Of course none of that seems to matter right now as dip buyers keep swarming in to soak up any low bids – remember folks – a dropping equities market is unamerican! 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gregn

    Mole, do you follow with ToS on your iPhone?

  • Cerebro82

    The $BKX is in clear divergence mode. This might be an index that indicates the start of P3. Banks are clearly weak. If you look at the index, it hasn't even retraced 50% yet. This might have 1-2% more upside to coincide with 1120 on the SPX.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Currently on a PC where DisqusT doesn't properly login. can only answer, but I agree with mole… the jury IS OUT

  • bizu

    Atilla(xTrends) call it the TOP, if you look on lots of other indicators i think things are starting to align…
    we'll live and see, nice start anyway :)
    M

  • amokta

    I thought we had all moved on from the P3 fantasy?
    agree re divergence, but then again, BKX might cath up later (or as they say, maybe the stocks from the last boom do not take part in the next boom-after all banks have recovered their pps emore than enough)

  • molecool

    RELOAD

  • Cerebro82

    The fact is that P3 will begin when everyone thinks that it's business as usual. Just because everyone is capitulating around me, doesn't mean that I won't stick to my gameplan. I am not saying to go all in right here, but I do think that P3 is coming real soon. Then everyone will be like “that was so obvious!!!” And the banks are the key, they will participate, to the downside.

  • Schwerepunkt

    A “D” day volume-by-price-wise. I would think we close in the middle of the range for the day. No big selloff.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes BUT days like this are good for the topping process. we need the bulls to be trapped in at high levels to feed the decline…when it comes! Of course if we make new highs we still have to wait more :(

  • gregn

    Well put — it is refreshing to see pride in our military forces.

  • dollar

    kemal did also

  • bizu

    who's kemal?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I look forward to the day we no longer spend $680 billion a year on defense expenditures and our military is below 1-million people and we are not fighting two hot wars with a couple more on the back burner. More than ever, we need to heed the words of Ike about the dangers of a military-industrial complex. I would add bankers to that equation . . .

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Michelle Caruso Cabrera boobs are getting bigger and bigger. Shes wearing a tight shirt today.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I can tell she's right handed because her left one is bigger. You'd think when she had the implants they would have rectified that asymmetry.

  • dollar

    a trader who is held in some respect

    we all must make our own decisions and live with them

  • bobthehorse

    Are you a running a $10bn portfolio? If not, there is going to be so much time to get involved in P3 why on earth would you keep wasting money trying to top-tick it?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    now you scared me! atilla has been jinxing tops since… just kidding, no disrespect meant

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AUD and NZD charts..maybe the early warning sign of dollar strength?
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZjJlZDgzN
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YzA1OTAy

  • bizu

    Yes, totally agree, from life to trading one needs to take responsibility for his actions and not blame other's for his losses.
    M

  • amokta

    i too am a P3-er, but recent 'top calling' by 'experts' has all been wrong so far. Also, from 2002/3 low, then stock market only went up, till 2007 (so why cant it go up from march 2009 to 2014). The banks have been bailed out – whats the worst that can happen – real estate – probably been factored in, can be bailed out too, unemployment – the economy will grind on slowly, until everything inflates out, or real growth returns (or the economies/people re-align to a lower GDP model)

  • wrc1k

    Anyone seen these charts yet (just in time for Chrismas):

    http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/11/11/holiday

  • elliott_surfs

    she's fucking ridiculous with those things. Watch how she'll completely posture up to have those puppies pushin like a chest burster. Real professional ya skank

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    true, you might bitch about some players rigging the game but you smile (grinn is enough) and take your losses as a man and your wins with equal class.

    p.s. I hope people around here got that message, if someone comes whining again…

  • bizu

    none taken :)
    i was watching too the 50% fibs so we'll see now if technical analysis has any value left or not…:)
    M

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/MDIzMDFhYTUt

    New poll up….how many “lay people” in your life (and get your mind out of the gutter) have mentioned to you in the last 2 weeks, how weak the dollar is.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • Tronacate

    Amen bro

  • Scoops

    You're right anything can happen. Which is why you have to be prepared for it. The market owes us nothing. Like Mark Douglas said though, there is always a price for finding out what happens next. Just don't bet the farm, cause even if you win big, you will piss it all away thinking you can do it again.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm still waiting for my plumber or housekeeper to say something. That will be a trigger to go long USD.

  • nashvagus

    Your Veterans Day salute is well done. Now if we could just envision an image US citizens conquering Capitol Hill.

  • ultra

    keep talking those sweet sounds of denial my friend – it's what we need to get this thing rolling over… more more MORE!!!

    working count – http://screencast.com/t/MDk3MjdkO

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it has, only you don't know the full set of new rules.

    for instance, so far no serious attempt has been taken to reign gold in and it has kept real spx on a downtrend since august… if they try to push gold down and equities up you night have a fast october 2008 replay

  • Publius Federali

    Mole, great sentiment about our soldiers. That picture from WWII is amazing. It's hard to believe what those guys had to go through, there was no such thing as a tour of duty, once you shipped out you were there until the war ended. I did a great trip from Normandy through Bastogne last summer and must say that going to the cemetery at Normandy was one of the most moving experiences of my life. To see Omaha beach and what those kids had to endure. And to think that their lives were sacrificed for the eventual creation of the fascist state we are living in.

    God bless all our troops and all our veterans. Bring every single one of them back to our country this second. We are a bankrupt country, we can not afford to be the world's policeman and have troops in a hundred countries throughout this world. And we certainly can not afford to sacrifice the lives of our bravest and most honorable while protecting the lives of bankers.

  • amokta

    yes, i am re-aligning my trading strategy !

  • Cerebro82

    The fact that top calling by experts have been all wrong is irrelevant to me… They'll be wrong until they're right. Topping is a complex process. I understand that the banks have been bailed out and all that jazz, but they are putting a band-aid on a gun shot wound. They are human as well, what will they do when everyone runs for the exits at the same time. It all sounds jazzy and all but do you want to hold the hot potato when shit is hitting the fan? Nope, me neither. That is why elliott wave is so interesting, they can control everything but social mood….That is when I plan to smile all the way to the bank, when fear is palpable. “The economy will grind slowly”- No it wont. The real economy is going to shit. All these extended u/e benefits (HR 3548 for example). What will happen when these people are no longer getting gov't assistance? The real growth hasn't been here for a while and wont return for a while. The worst is yet to come friend.

  • Tronacate

    Having a standing military is a BIG mistake.

    “Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on
    a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of
    it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people
    don't want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in
    Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the
    country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to
    drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist
    dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no
    voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.
    That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,
    and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the
    country to danger. It works the same in any country.” ~Hermann Goering

  • ultra

    Talked a lot of sense, did our Hermann…

  • Tronacate

    What is sad is that Hitler got alot of his ideas from the eugenics movement popularized by Rockefeller, Carnegie, Harriman, et. al

    Just a baby step from forced sterilization to genocide.

  • tradingmom

    Disturbing. I'm almost 39 years old, and I never realized that there was a “handedness” connection until now. I'm having a personal physical revelation while using the complimentary computer provided in the car dealer service area waiting room. Lovely.

  • amokta

    i am just acting as a counter-point for discussion! I hold some long puts, and the rest in cash. the worst thing that could happen – my puts expire worthless, or i sell in a month or two at a loss. Of course, if inflation comes, then holding cash might not be too good, but as yet no sign of inflation?

  • Cerebro82

    I'm not trying to top pick bob, I am just looking for clues to get in at the closest point. Again I am not saying to go all in but I am looking for cracks to begin exposing myself. Do you run a 10 billion dollar portfolio? (if you do congrats to you), if not then why do you come here on a daily basis, to bank green. Also it's not only about getting exposure to the downside I want to be skeptical of the upside, cuz it will be violent, why on earth will I want to be long when it does begin. I just want to be aware of my surroundings. The more information the better. I want to be aware

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm sorry it had to be me that pointed this correlation to you. LOL. Sorry, again, but I am a man with a pulse and two eyes.

  • ultra

    Oh aye – it was all the rage from the 19th century onwards – lots of academic research into the inferiority of the 'lesser races', categorising by skull shape etc etc.

    Don't think that these ideas died with teh Narzees neither…

  • gregn

    Look at your damned skull shape.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    oldie but alway top books uncle veblen

    http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/20694

  • Cerebro82

    Yes, I completely understand. No worries amokta, discussion is the main point we're here 😉

  • softcookie

    I worked at a VA hospital for a few years at the onset of my nerd career and there was a sign on the drive in that stated “The Price of Freedom Is Visible Here”. Whatever trivial problems I was grappling with quickly dissipated at the sight of lost limbs, eyes, dreams, etc.

    Perhaps one day soon the Roman legions will come to their senses and turn their swords on the true enemy…

  • ultra

    LOL. You wanna see me legs mate…

  • Tronacate

    SO true……

  • Tronacate

    The fastest guys in the world have ring fingers much longer than their index finger……..more testosterone during the growth years

  • Tronacate

    lol……..

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, I've heard that and others.

  • Tronacate

    I'll watch anything mate……

  • kanur

    I've been a right-handed person for 30 odd years and now I find out I was left handed the whole time.

    Wow.

    Love this place, learning something new every day.

  • Tronacate

    Just wierd trivia

  • TransworldDepravity

    And if it is shorter….then they bat for the other team

  • Tronacate

    That's fucking hilarious……

  • ultra

    Okaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy

    Who fancies a lickle wave iii down? Shall we? Yeah? Alright then….

  • Schwerepunkt

    There are exceptions to every rule! And it was just a life-long observation of dubious importance. Not meant to freak anyone out. Just passing time while I wait for the RSI, CCI and ADX to rise sufficiently.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and appart from genocide like eugenics you've got the “liberal eugenics” dilemas

    anyone like GATTACA?

  • Publius Federali

    Ain't it the truth. These were the Progressives from the early 20th century. And I believe that is what our current leadership wants to be called, progressive, not radical or liberal. Not that Bush and his cronies were any better.

  • davosdax
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the slope is not steep, don't count on it unless it breaks 1094

  • Huggybear

    That's correct Tron,

    Supreme court justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, in his opinion upholding a eugenics law (I think in 1914) stated “Three generations of idiots are enough!”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Little High/Low beta divergence chart above on the refresh…

    Skål!

  • wex

    Tight shirt or not, she's got no brains

  • Cypherd

    Thanks berk!

  • gregn

    Ew good catch.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but when you see politicians the “3 generations of idiots are enough” starts to make sense

    in most countries (and specialy in the usa) we're talking of true dinasties going back hundreds of years (and inbred to exhaustion)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Figured everyone knew, but we always like to be reassured…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    That quote could apply to the Palins quite easily…..lol

  • Tronacate

    Nice find

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    she can always use a t-shirt

    “who needs brains
    when you've got
    THESE”

  • TransworldDepravity
  • Tronacate

    Thanks Berkmeister

  • Cerebro82

    These divergences are everywhere you look, market is getting weaker and weaker. Now the question is how long do the fumes last.

  • wex

    Sorry, I must disagree. If you do something stupid lose money or your house, then bitch loudly enough you cn get the government give you your house back. Whining works or at least hurts no one very much.

  • gregn

    Short candidate if you're interested: CAT double top: http://screencast.com/t/OGIyNmI3Mjc

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    had already noticed, the answer is simple, either passengers of Titanic are heading for higher decks, or that will spring up with a vengeance

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes as we all know they can go on for some frickin' time.

    Skål!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my losses are my losses (unless I'm GS or any other chum)

    P.S. DON'T LIKE WHINING

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I see it more as a C wave in some degree 4. Looks like we could churn here for a few days, that just makes me wonder what the high-betas that didn't put in a new high will do. A few days may give them enough love to get to new highs. Ever the $RUT.

    Skål!

  • SlowDownFast

    Dollar propping back up…

  • Huggybear

    Well, objectively speaking, while they aren't rocket scientists I'd bet Sarah and her hubby would at least score “above average” on an IQ test. Probably around 110-115 would be my guess (I believe the avg. college grad is at 110). BTW, I google searched and the eugenics case was “Buck vs. Bell” in 1927. We Americans (I'm an import like Mole) always like to believe we are somehow morally superior to the rest of the world but we've committed some pretty heinous atrocities as a nation.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    exactly my two points stated

    1. don't count on iii down right now
    2. the coilled high betas might jump

  • Me_XMan
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, I was basically concurring with your “don't count on wave iii” while simultaneously whining about the potential…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Too true. I'm part Cherokee……they didn't fare too well.

  • gregn

    How is your casino doing? 😉

  • Schwerepunkt

    What's the matter? You don't like small-pox infested blankets? Ungrateful ingrates.

  • Tronacate

    I don't have enough percentage to collect on that…….my grandfather had a tract of land near tulsa but lost it to taxes during the depression…….it's a huge gravel operation now. C'est la vie

  • gregn

    Oui, c'est la vie indeed.

  • Tronacate

    And we have the audacity to bitch about Saddam using gas…….of couse bio wmds have been in use for ages……trebuchets launching dead animals over the wall etc.

    Once we make our land grab and do the dirty deed we call foul on others doing similar acts. The hypocrisy makes me cringe at times.

  • Huggybear

    Interesting tron. “The Trail of Tears” was one of the atrocities I was thinking of when I wrote that.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    humm, from wars with indians and mexico, passing through dresden, nagasaki (hiroshima might pass), friendly interventions in south america vietnam (and neighbours) and middle east, the three iraq slaughters (war 1, blockade, war 2)

    nahh

    and often with a self interest under a slight veneer of an excuse

    BTW nothing to write home about, most nations that can end up doing them, it's only the “we so pure” speech that is a pain

    P.S. That said let us also state that it has not been too bad a master and often had truly generous politicians and often a generous people when the going got tough

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Look for the market to crash in the next hour about 6 spx points lol

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hypocrisy is a universal concept. It's almost the sine qua non of civilization, I'd say.

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers……..and people wonder why Indians have a little edge of bitterness.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Any significance that there was good volume this morning in /DX futures on the two hour rise from ~75.0 ? and increasing open interest

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    unfortunately we see eye to eye on that, but time is short for ending a correction… so I hope we breach LOD and get going (my projection asks for a quick drop very soon)

  • Tronacate

    Projection of the ego…….

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES wants to make another run at VWAP (1097.31), but USD may not cooperate.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ALL YOUR BASES ARE BELONG TO US!

  • Cerebro82

    Triangle seems to forming in the USO. Suggests one more push after the triangle has resolved itself.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree, I just think it will most likely be C in either 4, iv or A of 4…

    Skål!

  • tradejane

    Yes, it looks like there's a good chance of that going to 1090 before going to 1098.

  • centerline

    6 pts? That would be a crash (LOL).

  • Huggybear

    You forgot Curtis Lemay's incendiary bombing of Tokyo. 400K killed. Not to mention Japanese-American concentration camps. I'm sure we could come up with quite a long list.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I like Karl but he would be more credible if hadn't been short for about the last 400 SPX points.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then it's likely over (any bear hope) MA13 is almost uppon BPSPX, everytime it broke above MA13 it jumped up, only exception was the january/february 2009 anomaly

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Wish me luck, I'm 100% short

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Anyone see the World Poker game last night on espn? I think they are going to have the winner on cnbc now

  • Cerebro82

    Good luck! you're brave

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Here is the IWM channel that is about to break to the downside. EUR/USD rising wedge has already broken down

    http://screencast.com/t/YzM0NGRmZWU

  • I_got_Prechterized

    10 points would be a black Wednesday.

  • Tronacate

    Well……we seem to use the passive-aggressive approach with economic, political pressure…..embargos, etc…….until people snap and attack us……then we go apeshit and kill them all.

    Attacking civilians in WW2 with firebombing and nukes was justified because “we saved American soldiers”…….interesting argument in light of our indignation at the perpetrators of assymetric wars these days.

  • clutchshorter

    You know what I hate, when I make a trade that's going against me only for it to reverse

    1) AAPL $185/$175 Credit Spread – AAPL reversed from $200 and touched $185. I capitulated for a loss and it reversed back the other way up to $200+
    2) BIDU $360/$350 Credit Spread – BIDU opened $80 overnight and out of panic, I capituated for a loss. It reversed back up past $400+
    3) AMZN $130/$135 Credit Spread – It crossed $130 yesterday and opened $1 over. It is reversing back under $130. I capitulated yesterday.

    I am just a bad trader. Don't listen to me.

  • Tronacate

    Dollar showing some pulse…….let's see 78 or so by the end of the month……now THAT would be cool

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just highlights, and the japs are already on the list

    but I think the list is not too bad for a couple of lines

    talking of japanese… reminds me that “what goes around, comes around”

    the japanese would not be a problem if the usa hadn't decided to open up japan in a perfect gunboat diplomacy

    saddam would not be a problem if the usa hadn't found him so practical to screw the iranians

    bin laden, where would he be if he wasn't a useful SOB to f”$k the ruskys in afghanistan

    should I go on on american diplomacy? (BTW when I read kissinger's diplomacy I wasn't sure if he was pulling my leg or if he was retarded)

  • Schwerepunkt

    People forget we placed a total oil embargo on Japan well before they attacked us. Even in “international law,” a body of work essentially written by Westerners, an embargo is an act of war.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    boy, do you choose strange moments, prety soon you'd have a decison…. use tight stops please

  • tradejane

    Pss, will you please stop it? Unless it makes you feel better of course. :)

    Sounds like you might be using too big initial positions and/or getting in too early. Nothing that hasn't happened to most of us for about a few zillion times.

  • Cerebro82

    We've all taken a beating lately.. You're never as good as you think when things are going great, and never as bad when things are going bad. Just hang tough and instead of letting emotion dictate your trades, set a stern set of rules and stick by them, you'll be fine.

  • newbear

    I think we've all been there.

  • cedieke

    they call it american exceptionalism, Conservatives say thay are a big fan of it. but i see that liberals are doing the same

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    lol I woulda added earlier at 1100+ except I was passed out from drinking last night and just woke up. Today is the day to short, everything is pointing down. I figure if I'm within 10 points I'll be good to go

  • clutchshorter

    I know. The bad thing is, I take a look at my account and think about what I could have done with that lost money. Like buy myself 5 Flat Screen TVs, maybe eat $190 Kobe steaks, or paying down a part of my tuition, etc..

  • Tronacate

    The Japanese couldn't understand our outrage over the Chinese invasion in light of our land grab from the Indians…….they were thinking WTF?

  • elliott_surfs

    such a maverick renegade trader. need more like you hehe

  • http://fundmymutualfund.com TraderMark

    Just some eye candy
    2009 Returns YTD by country

    http://is.gd/4SJRy

    US middle of the pack
    BRIC countries dominating with 70 to 126% YTD gains

  • fa_q

    List of things people really don't want to hear about:
    1) Missed (bad) trades
    2) Bad beats at poker
    3) How amazingly brilliant your 4 month old is because he stacked blocks which makes him a genius
    4) Your fantasy football team wins/losses
    5) The putt you missed on 13 for the eagle after hitting a 4 iron pure for the first time in your life
    6) How hot your girlfriend was in summer camp/high school/your trip to Canada, etc

    (this is all in jest, sort of…we've all been there)

  • Nightwind

    I hate to tell you guys, but this has gone on since the dawn of time. Today's conqurors will be tomorrow's victims and vice versa. Liberals will always spin it that everyone is a victim.

  • Tronacate

    I think that is reflected in the number of dead brown people it takes to equal one dead American…….1,000…..10000…….a million. Can it ever be equalized?

  • TransworldDepravity

    IYR looks to be topping? The pattern last couple of days similar to the one on Sept 17 and 18th. Also, 4-5 month HS pattern with doji candles at the peaks.

    Very limited charting here at work as I don't have admin rights on my computer. Does anyone know of a decent website? Prophet web version doesn't load for me.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    well if that wasnt the top then I dont know what was. Look at NQ's perfect retest of the broken trendline: http://screencast.com/t/NDNlYmU4Yjc

  • Tronacate

    Anybody know WW1 history…..how the hell did we get into that one?

  • Tronacate

    You know Trader_Steve would read this shit and explode at his keyboard……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    FDR needed a casus belli, if americans weren't so nazi admirers he would have entered the war from day 1 (and was right, from the wwI armistice wwII was inevitable)

  • gregn

    It is truly amazing that fib fans work so well..

  • fa_q

    What was the assassination of Archduke Ferdidnand, Alex?

  • Tronacate

    Saddam started his career killing communists for US…….quite the tool.

  • Cerebro82

    The EUR/USD has broken it short term trend line. It will retrace or is this the start of a bigger leg down?
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

    thoughts?

  • TransworldDepravity

    The PEN IS mightier
    sorry couldn't help myself

  • Nightwind

    correct answer for +2es points

  • gmak

    Apparently something wicked this way comes. Stock Timer is using the FAZ ramp in volume while in a bottoming process as an example.

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarke

  • Huggybear

    The victors write the history books.

  • stxinon

    The Lloyd's Prayer

    Our Chairman,
    Who Art At Goldman,
    Blankfein Be Thy Name.

    The Rally's Come.
    God's Work Be Done,
    We Have No Fear Of Correction.

    Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
    And Bankrupt Our Nearest Competitors,
    Just As You Taught Lehman And Bear A Lesson.

    And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
    For Thine Is The Treasury,
    The House And The Senate
    Forever And Ever.
    Goldman.

  • gregn

    Interesting, thank you.

  • gmak

    There is a pivot at 1.4948; This is where support came in overnight, apparently. Some short-term TA (3 min EUR) seems to indicate that we are going to see a little pop here. Even the 30 min SPX shows that 1.4948 is a strong support level – again EUR bounced off of it at the end of lockup yesterday.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Look at my profile picture. That is Archduke Ferdinand of Austria and his wife, Sofie, as they were making their way to the staff car for the ride that ended in their deaths at the hands of a Serbian anarchist named Gavrilo Princip. This event triggered WWI, which triggered WWII, which led to the Cold War, which led to our idiotic Middle East policy, which led to where we are today. This was the single most important and ultimately destructive action by an individual in the history of mankind. It is the proof of proofs of the fashionable Black Swan/chaos theory.

  • gregn

    Excellent.

  • gmak

    Lol! ROFLMAO!

  • MayDaze

    If you're asking how the USA got into it, it had to do with a German policy of submarines sinking commercial ships without warning, They sunk the Lusitania, which was either an American vessel or British with a lot of American passengers (don't recall which). That was the trigger for US to enter, IIRC.

  • Cerebro82

    LOL +1

  • Tronacate

    Nice stuff…….saving that

  • Schwerepunkt

    Brilliant.

  • Tronacate

    Thanks…….looked it up……..sounds like they were carrying ammunition and explosives…….guess they should have told the passengers……sounds alot like the Terrorists hiding behind civilians.

  • davosdax

    I visited the Titanic exhibition on 44th Street last week. When you enter, they give you the boarding pass of an actual passenger, and when you exit you can see whether they lived or died. As my boarding pass was for a 50 year old unemployed British coal miner in 3rd class hoping to make a new life in the US, I knew his chances were pretty much zero.

  • Huggybear

    Correct! The US was not drawn in until 1917 after the Lusitania sinking. However, there was some evidence that the Lusitania was also secretly carrying American made munitions to be delivered to the British (which may have exacerbated it's sinking)

    The assassination of the archduke was merely the match that lit the fuse. The underlying causes were much more complex (such as formation of mutual defense alliances).

  • Tronacate

    Kind of like the wake of a dolphin starting a hurricane…….thnks for the info.

  • Tronacate

    fa_q at jeopardy:

    Colored condoms for 500 Alex

  • fa_q

    Very correct. And Huggybear's son is an NFL running back.

  • Tronacate

    More scumbags hiding behind civilians…….WE did that????……nooooooooooooo

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the event was a freak excuse for an inevitable conflict

  • TimV

    Its a shame I didn't buy that Vix buy signal…. the /ES is up >50 since then… UFB.

  • newbear

    Timeless!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ut oh.. :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Agreed. The alliance system and balance of power approach that was developed mostly by Great Britain to defeat Napoleon and preserve a feudal Europe dominated by an extended royal family came to its logical conclusion with the initiation of WWI. WWI Obliterated feudal Europe, catapulted the US into a position of leadership, triggered a huge ideological conflict between right and left, democracy and totalitarianism via the Cold War and sent the world on its present trajectory . . . wherever that may be.

  • davosdax

    Is YHOO halted?

  • SlowDownFast

    Market is stuck again.

  • Huggybear

    yes! Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders. Father is Antonio who played Huggybear (my avatar) on Starsky and Hutch

  • rosocecasita

    If those are your concerns, your not managing your money properly.

    Both in trading and IRL.

  • http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    GATTACA is probably the most prescient work of fiction in 100 years.

  • Cerebro82

    Business as usual on the Nasdaq until AAPL breaks this channel.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folde

  • centerline

    1098. Arrggggghhhh. I fear a close at 1098. Must keep everyone guessing so maximum number of bears and bulls are holding overnight – as usual. Is there more fractal to play out, touched the rising wedge TL, double top inverted nipple pattern? Arggggghhhh.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1984

    you're living a disguised version

  • ultra

    Very interesting indeed. Looks suspiciously like that i,ii I've been looking for – knew I'd left them somewhere…

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    The Oct. 14th high was 43.61 according to Yahoo. There seems to be support at 42.6ish (Monday's high, resistance yesterday). The 50 MA is up to 41.86, really close to the 42 level which has been support/resistance recently. IYR looks to me like it is consolidating for another move up. The “good news” in TOL today leads me to believe that the Oct. high will get taken out if we close above 43.

  • Huggybear

    I once dated a girl with inverted nipples. lol

    Yes, closing anywhere between 1091 and 1097 ES probably keeps the largest number of people in, only to have one (probably the bears) screwed once again as the overnight futures get juiced.

  • ultra

    Bah. C'est nul points pour moi encore un fois.

    Okay then – let's get this 5 out of the way then if we must.

  • Tronacate

    Fargas can run…..one fast dude

  • davosdax

    A Raven the size of a small ostrich has just landed on my window ledge. That can't be a good sign. Shoo.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Priceless….oh wait, the price was our country….

  • Tronacate

    IYR…..low ADX coil…..seems like we've seen this before……

  • PRSGuitars

    Will we see these levels again in 2009?

    Quoth the raven, “never more”

    Have you hated anything in your life more than this rally?

    Quoth the raven, “never more”

    Will you ever trade front month OTMs on derivative or inverse derivative ETFs?

    Quoth the raven, “Well, depends, I mean, what's your target on FAZ, Atilla? I think I'm going to buy some Dec FAZ 100 calls, they're only like 1.60!”

  • Schwerepunkt

    Same with EUR. + line finally trying to crossover – line. It's been more than 4-hours since the last such crossover. You know what that means.

  • weasel_whisperer

    Did you know in some cultures, a bird sh*tting on your head is considered good luck?

  • davosdax

    March, July, November. 4 monthly explosive ramps.

  • Anonymous

    Just a little facetiousness on my part

  • Schwerepunkt

    Too bad for him he's on the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. I'm a Broncos fan myself. ;-))

  • Tronacate

    Cutler's having fun with the Bears eh?…….”which shitty receiver shall I throw to this play?”

  • davosdax

    A pigeon shat on me outside the Plaza Hotel in 2001 when I was on my way home from an interview. I didn't get that job. Perhaps it needs to shit on you before you go into the interview, for it to be good luck.

  • davosdax

    EGLE is off like a dress on Prom night.

  • Tronacate

    Any reason AIG jumped a 1.5 on the 5 minute?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Serves pouty boy right. He's been getting hammered behind that lousy O-line too for good measure.

  • Me_XMan

    I remember he said he's shorting on CNBC…ya way way way back then.

  • davosdax

    Ha Ha!

  • gmak

    Take a look at EZD – it looks similar, although the bottoming is more volatile – on the order of 2 points at a time. Plus the volume has been extraordinary lately.

  • fa_q

    That's why some strippers get their nipples pierced. WWI, NFL and strippers…finally something to which I can contribute

  • ultra

    SPY triangle alert – http://screencast.com/t/MDk3MjdkO

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Another worthless day in the markets……

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers……..him and Lienert…..both overrated whiners

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Now that was good for an out loud laugh

  • Schwerepunkt

    Only 12-pt range on ES during regular market hours.

  • Huggybear

    I'll admit, I checked off the “dated a stripper” box a few years ago. Man, was she seriously psycho (as in highly medicated psycho)! Strippers seem to like me for some reason, maybe because I don't drool on them. I went to a psychic fair a couple of weeks ago and got read by an astrologer for the first time in my life. She said I attracted women with addiction and depression problems. lol

    They've developed a pretty simple procedure to correct for inverted nips now.

  • fa_q

    We did put in new highs on Dow, SPX, etc and sold off. SPX pinned the major downtrend line for the first time since May '08. Bulls slamming the DJT to get Dow Theory cranked up. It's not like nothing happened today – just because we closed near the open (maybe) doesn't mean it was a worthless trading day. Some pretty important markers were hit.

  • amokta

    time for a gap down day tomorrow, i think. how come everything seems to happen outside of normal trading hours?

  • Schwerepunkt

    “What God wants. God gets” — Roger Waters.

  • Tronacate

    Liquidity won't be an issue when volume drops to zero….

  • kryxtal

    Volume is lower on futures, so they can move more with less money. Because of that, it's also easier to gap over resistance levels.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    “If God takes life, he's an Indian giver.”– Isaac Brock

    Skål!

  • Schwerepunkt

    We have a bar in town named after him.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Really??? I bet that is one bad-ass place to grab a brew…

    Skål!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We have a bar in town called The Hate BAr

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    What is it occupied by a bunch of big green candles?

    Skål!

  • Schwerepunkt

    You live in Skokie, Illinois?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    lol if you come in the place wearing anything green you got your ass stomped

  • molecool

    “They've developed a pretty simple procedure to correct for inverted nips now.”

    Yeah, it's called an industrial vacuum cleaner.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nope. I live in Atlanta…

    Skål!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Who needs a vacuum cleaner. I can create my own vacuum.

  • yogi_barra

    Any thoughts for next few days?…appr your input as always

  • gregn

    Put to call ratio on VIX is over 3. Product of bear hedging?

  • PRSGuitars

    Girlfriend is just outside skokie — lovely little place.

  • Tronacate

    I grew up in Crytal Lake, Il

  • Schwerepunkt

    I was indirectly referencing the skinhead/neo-nazi parades there but I mangled it.

  • Cerebro82

    $BPSPX is still relatively high at 75, so they believe that they are still in complete control (although off from the extreme readings from a bit back)

  • Cerebro82

    The $CPC also corrected to a more normal reading and we are near the highs, this thing can run if they choose.

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah, well, that's not quite the part of Skokie I was referring to. haha

    but yes, weird little place (but I like it)

  • fa_q

    Honestly, no clue. This thing SHOULD reverse hard tomorrow. That being said we'll probably throw 15 point on the SPX. In actuality, I expect some rounding action like we've had after every other 6-8 day pump. Burn the theta. The wrench is that tomorrow is Thurs before OpEx. and the day after a bank holiday. Volume should come back significantly either way.

    Another week, another drawdown.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Watching IYR closely for a last minute short squeeze. Tempted to go short at around DRV 16.80

  • tradejane

    Wait, isn't next expiry on the 20th?

  • WTFed

    Nice call.

  • gregn

    Yup.

  • fa_q

    The Thurs the week before. Usually one of the most violent and headfaked days as the big boys roll and get positioned

  • centerline

    (putting on SSH tin foil hat again).

  • tradejane

    Oh ok, not so familiar with them options thingies. :)

    So, are you guys finished with the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMdwYDFMV7M

  • gsavli

    As in up and down, here and there?

  • itsgold

    Putting in a overnight short on the ES, stop at 1099.50.

  • ultra

    Who know? It's just the right conditions for take off though.

  • Me_XMan

    Inverted hammer?

  • fa_q

    Yep, that's theta burn in a sentence

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Shooting star?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Besides SSC and me, does anyone have the Great Channel drawn on their $INDU chart? It's been extremely useful for me. Today's high touched the Great Channel Line, AKA the Great Orange Channel Line, before the price action was pushed down. I'm expecting the Great Orange Channel Line to contain the closes if not the highs for at least the next few days. For the aggressive short seller, the place to short is at the Great Orange Channel Line. Cover if a candle closes above it. For the cautious short seller, the place to short is if/when the price action breaks below the purple channel line under the Great Orange Channel. Alternatively, one could do both. Buy some puts or whatever at the Great Orange Channel and buy more units if/when the price action breaks below the purple channel line. That's how I roll.

    http://screencast.com/t/Nzc5ZGY4YmM

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm selling them by the dozen

    I fear tomorrow we have lift-off end of july style

  • dollar

    Nice long RSI divergence in the SPX:

    http://screencast.com/t/MGQ5MDdlZGYt

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    is trading day over? Was market open today?

  • derekste

    What a dull day…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we're f%”#$d, the MA13 was already at high 74's yesterday it has crossed … very start of 2007.

    It didn't succeed on breaking the wedge at 75
    (thank you daneric)

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SmULGlkx4

  • derekste

    Dirty sanchez?

  • derekste

    I'm in Aurora 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it also works on equities

    GS sucks
    Tops Blow
    We get sod… so sad

  • roncofooddehydrator

    No, but thanks for the offer.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    smart cub 😉

    and drop some on the descending trendline (if it gets there) as a rebound will be in order

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just bots and some timid bears

  • amokta

    trials and tribulations of investing in a penny stock
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGsSBv1Cq90

  • http://www.LibertyIsWinning.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    Animal Farm is much better.

  • tradejane

    >IYR looks to be topping?

    Good question as I believe RE will again be the key in all of this.

    I am cautiously thinking “yes”, as I find it very interesting that once again RE topped before the banks while the US-markets continue to make new highs because that's how it exactly happened back in 07…

    Stockcharts.com and Yahoo Finance aren't too bad, this place is good too:

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsda

  • TransworldDepravity

    Great. Found that marketwatch has good charts for not only stocks but options too which I am more interested in. Take a look at my IYR chart and tell me that little gap doesn't scare you. It is also right at the 61.8% retrace. Significant. Needs to fail right here right now.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NDM4ZWRiMTIt

    Oh and the market reminds me of this song 😉
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Anuau7vSGSg

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    pas si vite, je commence à me tapper le cuilles de tout ces mouvements à la con. On descend’ c’est parti le kiki

  • tradejane

    Carnival! What an apt description! 😀

    Love the IYR chart. It agrees with all the other long term charts I've been drawing these days and they all seem to show that this current area represents a rather significant turning point for the markets.

    Could it shoot higher from here? A run to 50.35 seems entirely doable if it manages to go above the 44 area.

    Unless it… collapses under the weight of “vanished expectations.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109

  • TheCrowe

    I have some questions/comments on the trend trading system. Can I drop you an email or shall we discuss in the ES blog? I'm interested in knowing your perspective on using moving averages vs. bollinger bands as entry/exit points, as well as the 30/200 day filter, and what makes an appropriate target (vis a vis: stock) to use the system on. Best,Richard

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Either way. I have had a busy ass week, so I haven't (and may not) be around much. If you want to shoot me an e-mail..

    berkshire dot rockaway at gmail dot com

    Skål!

  • TheCrowe

    I have some questions/comments on the trend trading system. Can I drop you an email or shall we discuss in the ES blog? I'm interested in knowing your perspective on using moving averages vs. bollinger bands as entry/exit points, as well as the 30/200 day filter, and what makes an appropriate target (vis a vis: stock) to use the system on. Best,Richard

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Either way. I have had a busy ass week, so I haven't (and may not) be around much. If you want to shoot me an e-mail..

    berkshire dot rockaway at gmail dot com

    Skål!