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Lack Of Participation
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Lack Of Participation

by The MoleDecember 8, 2017

Equity futures pulled an NFL yesterday judging by the complete lack of participation throughout the big roll over day into the 2018 March contract. Fairly unusual at least in my (not so) humble opinion, and it seemed as if everyone rolled (or perhaps not) and then simply walked away.


2017-12-07_Zero_no_particpation

Now I can’t really blame them either given that BTC scraped $17,000 yesterday – and then of course promptly fell back to $14,000 as 20% swings apparently are the new norm across cryptos. Boy oh boy, I simply can’t wait to trade the futures later this month and let’s just say that various pertinent evil plans have already been set into motion 

2017-12-08_BTC

But I’m delighted that CME and CBOT were smart enough to embrace crypto derivatives early on, unlike ICE which is basically choosing the conservative route, as they seem to realize that the cheese is rapidly moving. Which your humble host has been sensing for a long time now to be frank right here in terms of participation (that word again!). Main reason being of course that both U.S. equities and forex retail markets became increasingly restrictive due to Dodd-Frank severely punishing the only group of traders largely unresponsible for the 2007/2007 market melt down.

So retail gradually disappeared with the exception of a few hard core watering holes just like this blog. And then almost out of nowhere BTC pops onto the scenes and launches the one thing retail traders the world over have never ever been able to say no to: a bubble. And so it grows and grows and grows while Wall Street is acting confused trying to figure out where exactly it missed the boat. I would point toward hubris and arrogance but then again who sits in a glass house is best reminded to not cast stones.

Anyway, meanwhile the other ICE (the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency) is sharpening its knives in preparation of coming down hard on child exploiters, drug smugglers, illegal arms dealers, and other types of human cockroaches as they appear to share one thing in common: which is to increasingly use BTC for their illegal transactions. It’s truly a strange world we live in when major exchanges are preparing to issue derivatives on a crypto currency massively used by criminal organizations.

The irony is not lost on me of course. When I was a kid I was expecting trips to Mars, autonomous robots, flying cars, and hoverboards in 2017, perhaps even cold fusion, immortality, or anti-gravity. We didn’t get any of that and instead we got cyber bullying, tinder, facebook, and crypto currency. Damn it, I think I need to lay down now…

2017-12-08_VIX

Anyway, I talked about the VIX yesterday and it’s due for a revisit as it now has settled around its current mean near the 10 mark. What happens here is actually quite crucial given the formation on the E-Mini I had pointed out. A drop from here will start shifting the momentum squarely back into the hands of the bulls, but what else is new… Maybe I should remind myself that in a few years from now I’ll probably be bitching about the ‘good old days’ when BTFD was the simple name of the game.

2017-12-08_gold_LT

So gold is approaching a very very speculative LT inflection point. I’m the first to admit that it’s not well supported and only may hold up in the context of the daily panel:

2017-12-08_gold_ST

That lower 100-day BB may act as support – eventually. But right now and right here I doubt that it will and this is why:

2017-12-08_gc_usdjpy

The USD/JPY continues to push up (here reversed and shown in dark blue) and as gold runs inverse that means it’s being dragged lower in the process.

2017-12-08_USDJPY_LT

So what we really should be looking at is the USD/JPY then and IMO it seems to be in the mid of a little short squeeze which has little chance of abating until it touches the 114 mark. I was actually waiting for a dip buying opportunity here but the bastard turned way too early and nobody had sent me a memo. Suffice to say that the party responsible will be dealt with, no worries. We don’t mess around here at Evil Speculator!

But seriously now, I think the USD/JPY continues to be an important weather flag when timing PM exposure. And given the lack of LT context on gold it’s best to look here for early clues.

2017-12-08_ZB_stop_out

I got into a bond campaign yesterday and was instantly taken to the woodshed. Not much to say here right now, we may take another whack at this but most definitely not on a Friday.

2017-12-08_copper_exit

Which is actually also why I’m exiting my copper campaign at break/even. The setup doesn’t look bad but dynamics are now shifting in the futures as I’m sensing very little upward mojo and possible continued strength in the USD (yes please!). I may revisit this campaign early next week if it manages to build a more pronounced floor pattern.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mark Shinnick

    INFI has a well behaved chart, models pretty nicely. Bot yesterday, met initial objective. I can see why you doubled-down, says a lot. General bio environment nice bounce off yesterdays inflection.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    great chart on /GC.

    It’s Friday, must. stay. on target. 😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc4Fp_eHDC8

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    My aim is better. I do get that look on my face 🙂

  • HD

    /VX 11 long

  • HD

    GC POS. very disappointed in it’s behavior

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ballsy…noticed this the moment you posted, cool pop, but we’ve got the makings of some crush going on watch out.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is there a cognitive bias ?

  • HD

    only risking my right ball. OPEX next week. Let’s do a study. If you bot on Friday before what’s the risk? Is there a better entry etc. BRB

  • BobbyLow

    I always enjoy reading your posts Mole. They are usually spot on and especially so this morning. I got a couple of chuckles about BTC. 🙂

    Anyone notice the old fuckerooksie play on Crude overnight and early this AM? I was up fairly early and noticed that Crude was sailing on upward. Being short, this was cause for concern. I looked to see if there were any headlines and sure enough it was the old Nigeria (possible labor strike play). We used to have a running joke when Oil seemed to only go up and the news every other day would be a bomb going off in the ME or work being done on a pipe line etc., but the best one were the uprisings in Nigeria. So I’ll just have to wait and see if I get stopped out or not.

  • ridingwaves

    its under the Central bankers influence right now…..the rate decision next week makes it hard to play until the decision is in….more nuggets elsewhere

  • ridingwaves

    I got it )

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sure. Your willing to hold for up to a week ?

  • ridingwaves

    I think if I waited about a week after thinking a turn was near in bio indexes I would be hanging with Mole and Rockefeller….I tend to jump in a week sooner than needed, this is a 5 year itch I have….need to work on that a lot….

  • ridingwaves

    some gap buyers sold up at 2.15….20% is hard to pass up

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ohhh…ok, got it.

  • ridingwaves

    meaning I thought bio indexes had a chance to break up last Friday….and thus bought in when I could have just held up for a bit….

  • Mark Shinnick

    In light of the insider almost 1mil buy those guys maybe need to grow some.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Roger that.

  • ridingwaves

    true dat…bigger move is coming

  • HD

    As always interpret as you see fit. What caught my eye the most is zero risk at round numbers. a= Friday before OPEX
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c0c2fc5c757612ae2eca5450ca0c11cf66e067ca990460cadf6a26b93c3fcba.png

  • Julie

    TAL 29.06 was my stop on remaining 1/4 position long 30.88 was initial target. 30.50 was top yesterday and today which was a resistance. Took profits on remaining 1/4 before stop this a.m GDX long from yesterday moved stop up to today’s low 21.57, As I have posted many times I use the daily 5 ema as a filter. GDX 5 ema is 21.83 and today’s high so far 21.81 and has pulled back and must have a bullish close above 21.83 before I add to long
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ah..nice study concept POV 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, I did say support. down price & uprising ma’s? remember?
    Muwahaha

    [USO]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08278317134

  • Julie

    GG INTC must get above it’s daily 5 ema for a long and has come down to it’s daily 55 ema and gap window I posted a chart previous thread later in day. Let’s watch volume on IMO a bounce from this level and a possible lower high for a longer term short I posted on previous threads with monthly and weekly charts indicating IMO 47 was a possible top for INTC Let’s put lipstick on this pig GG
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    How much did you buy?

  • Tomcat

    I hear you BL. Nigeria managed to screw me up as well, in my S $RB. But I can’t complain too much as my trailing stop managed >5R.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Zero.

  • Tomcat
  • BobbyLow

    I’m not stopped out yet but I’ve given back a lot of gains on this short. One of the hardest things to do is let a trade completely play out and that includes allowing candles to complete before taking action. The day and the trade is not over yet. 🙂

  • Tomcat

    GL sir.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    an island top would be ideal.
    but like I said yesterday, SOX wasn’t cooperating. so I’m out of that fight.
    no appetite for theta burn and the like.

    http://finvids.com/Content/Images/ChartPattern/Island-Reversals/Island-Reversal-MultiDay-Top-Chart.jpg
    -GG

  • BobbyLow

    Well you’ve made about the same amount I did so far but I suppose it’s safer on the sidelines. 🙂

  • Julie

    GG and Everyone CAT two very important charts. Weekly and daily charts which I made yesterday after the market closed and not showing today’s action CAT Weekly RSI at 85 and not sustainable Daily charts with negative divergences. A bearish close daily chart below 139.86 (upper blue dotted horizontal line) is the short which is below it’s daily 5 ema and lower uptrend line shown on daily chart. Target is the support zone (blue horizontal dotted lines) and daily 55 ema. A bounce here then we again watch volume and momentum ( like INTC) for a lower high for a longer term short Shown CAT weekly and daily charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/348235cd1b4c174d40b35aa3cb3308d693197184fa062505b7fa74e89b1e4b9a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da4ecf7a1701cd87425169f46fa4b80910e4e395dbba1a3edc96c3bdf3801849.png

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks TC and good luck to you as well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Have you ever made good money, but emotionally, it just wasn’t quite worth it? (lots of lizard brain worry?)

  • BobbyLow

    It’s always worth it. I’m a market junkie. 🙂

  • Julie

    Hey Guys Let’s put lipstick on these pigs …….. INTC and CAT for the long windy road down …….
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Looking for “clues” why my $ES position was up overnight, my CNBC app didnt dissappoint, some chit about avoiding government shut down. These clowns never disappoint.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    putting on my wet blanket cap.
    what makes you think that this day/next week is the spot for a multi year uptrend to end?
    just look at that chart(s)!
    I need more EVIDENCE. A whiff of blueberries for the baby bears.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Tomcat …. The first two weeks of December seasonality are bearish. A curve ball thrown to keep everybody off balance. Me SPX on the daily chart ….. A reversal candle at a lower high on the daily chart approx. the fib retracements is a short. 2650 is the approx. 62% retracement and watching closely . Confirmation is a bearish close below the daily 5 ema which is approx. 2638 as I type
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG Charts do not lie but Wall Street does. Patience Bro We short the lower high. EZPZ ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    CAT is part of the NYSE. DOW.
    (here is) a shred of evidence for a top. but isn’t this confirmation bias? looking for what we want to see?
    [BPNYA]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPNYA&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09559401840

  • Tomcat

    You could very well be right Julie, all I know is I closed my eyes and BTFD @2625 (actually reversing my short) with the plan to hold until month end. I will let price dictate whether I am foolish or lucky.

  • Tomcat

    In my lens this looks like a H&S on the $. ofcourse this could very well be confirmation bias on the PM longs I am in:
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1

  • Julie

    GG Nope All good things come to an end esp the high flyers. They ( investors and traders) gonna be trapped like rats Look at the volume at the black candle on the gap up. They are gonna be trapped and the selling to get out …. One word YIPES !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very cool you are looking at the confirmation bias thing 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    OK… so long as charting is the game.. how about a fairly-tested H&S type bottom measuring up into the gap area ?

  • Julie

    SPX Overbought on the 60 min and 10 min charts Now up into the 61.8 approx. 2650 with negative divergences 10 min chart. The bounce from Wednesday looks corrective. Getting ready to pull the trigger short. One item to note SPX could be triangulating (curve ball) so gonna watch carefully and keep everything close to the vest. Will post when I pull the trigger Shown is SPX 10 min chart Note the heavy black line is the 19 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5634c997c2f1621c77516f67f3c6a64301d346a8688de5eed7e47916e81c131.png 5 ema which corresponds to the daily 5 ema JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sure. as long as the H&S has a neckline. I dislike people who neglect the NECKLINE!!

  • Julie

    GDX closing long and taking profits (small) Will reenter with a bullish candle on the 30 min chart closing above the daily 5 ema (65 ema 30 min chart corresponds to the daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s cool, terms of art for this double bottom stuff the neckline is imagined at the head. It then helps to look earlier in the chart for some confirmation.

  • ridingwaves

    that chart wants to make me buy it, I like the upside down pig ear bottom…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pig ear…has a nice ring to it 🙂

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I can’t help but wonder what kind of proven expectancy that there is in all of the patterns that I’ve seen today?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…yet where the price prints actually exist that define them, there’s no denying they mean at least something to at least some participants :/

  • Julie

    GG I was trading off the lower trend line of the channel and minor support shown on a previous chart yesterday. I was watching like a hawk. Very small gain. Yes 20 very well could be the flush. I also pointed out in a previous post Gold COT Reports had an extremely bearish bias with commercials having a very high net short position. Let’s watch Gold and the Miners closely GG IMO a nice long is setting up
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Short now and loose money, this is the end of a healthy back-track in an ongoing bull market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s all about the neckline
    hey, hey! – eyes up Here.

    https://i.pinimg.com/170x/fc/96/5b/fc965bb85cbadccddf9fcdb3d45f02cf.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always possible. short term gold/silver/copper quiet today.

    full disclosure, I do have a baby SLV entry position from yesterday.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p18590425457

  • BobbyLow

    I agree Mark. Some of my Scott training is coming out about probabilities and if these things are really an edge etc. 🙂 I’m sure they work some of the time but are they really an edge? (rhetorical question) 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ahh…so that’s why neckline breaks get so vertical 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Really is a great issue…just another “line”…unless it isn’t. Same story.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Totally SH reversal. How you do that?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Mole GG and Everyone Watching GE 30 min chart a bullish 30 min candle closing above the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) approx. 18.10 matching the green resistance is a short term long. Targets the green line resistance matching the 21 ema. Another target the green line matching the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) Watching GE But may take a long probe (small position) closing above the daily 5 ema approx. 17.80 and above the upper trend line of channel (channel breakout) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9be2be799538c2b94a51e3f70a4c33647e95f37aa9af14821ea07a3fe1cb77d6.png

  • ridingwaves

    no doubt a Filipino party fractal…I tried them at one of their parties…I prefer the adobo and punsit personally…

  • Mark Shinnick

    This 1775 with super tight looks ok. Good inflection even if stopped would reenter. Or jut put a tight trailing buystop. Inflection gets lost if this goes outside a reasonable ATR.

  • Julie

    Now Short SPX against today’s high 2651.65
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    break out the hot chocolate, getting down to the 40’s here.
    Muwahaha – deserts have their advantages.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ca2595735cbd9b7456df6baa68c4941c15e897653874e6f7e5c37e744d2e7ae.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how’s Natty? holding on the Daily.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=d1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    SPX short taken 10 min chart at vertical red line IMO good R/R with today’s high a stop https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c0078ecad9657183839fc85bd18b95ea44de302fded1d07a658a18d87fb2ce6.png JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    urrggg..in the face of grinding vol crushing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +1
    Heat map – yes! yes the patient is resting comfortably..

    https://finviz.com/map.ashx

  • Mark Shinnick

    +1 That “forward P/E” map is really something.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    P/E….I’m not British. But Bloody Hell!

    also, check out the bubble spotter – I never knew! (hover over the bubbles)
    https://finviz.com/bubbles.ashx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    MATtel, can you say gap fill!?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, get a load of Consumer Goods and this Fed chart of credit card debt…and the little matter of flat wage growth past 10 years, https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f5d5a0768e618dcc1a14ad24911a067090ee10560589fdef2e817b0386ec3b9c.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have 2 problems with chart.

    credit is total, not adjusted per capita.
    price is in ‘Billions of Dollars’, and we know how the USD is shifty.

  • Julie

    Julie Over and out ….. Stop in place I may have top ticked this jasper SPX … Again watch for a triangle on the daily and 60 min charts. Possible triangle shown SPX 60 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6fe4e89152dd5076c5d93c189474ced2f53d1af54186b7403f74598b9b0a08a3.png

  • Julie

    Everyone Have A Great Weekend ! Going skiing
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Simple: put in in a buy order that is > than your current Short holding… But if you are asking, how did I get so “lucky” …pure fckin randomness…nothing more…nothing less.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Don’t sweat the small stuff, boomer pop is toast.

    https://youtu.be/AuGFlP5Duuw?t=57

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gold may be going to the dogs, but there’s a technical support line in my Lens. (temporarily)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06ea85786aa979cebfe0ecfe3da05442210c69232f9a35787a2931b7746c7eb5.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Glad to see that my old Nigerian connection still delivers 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice when that happens. great to hear 🙂

  • kim

    if it looks like pump and dump then?

  • kim
  • Edgy

    I should write a book on technical trading and just say, “buy the friggin (sic) dip!” in 230 pages. Then it should finally jump the shark and we can roll the dice for a new, new normal.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What use is Crypto to most of us with 1 out of 20 being psychotic/narcissistic?

    A crowd of persons with smartphones…and one person with a emp devise just as small fry’s everyone’s street access to exchange in one split second.

    To those with electronic brain implants…maybe they need new surgeries even before they try to buy their food for the day.

    Those with cash in hand, they can buy their food unaffected for the next day, weeks, whatever.