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Last Chance For The Bears
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Last Chance For The Bears

by The MoleOctober 12, 2015

Exciting times lay ahead ladies and leeches! Equity futures have now progressed to our final inflection point near the 2k mark, it is right here where the grizzly bear may hand the torch back to the raging bull from hell. As in all things timing will be of essence and being proven right tomorrow doesn’t mean much if didn’t get positioned today. As of right now there’s little movement in the futures but DarthMole suggests that volatility is just about to explode on the S&P E-Mini. So what the heck are we waiting for?

2015-10-12_spoos_LT

Well, it never hurts to consider the long term picture as well. Which I may add is what got me pretty jazzed up this morning. As you can see both the weekly and monthly panels have us pushing into Net-Line resistance right now – we have a daily NLBL at 2011.75 and there’s a monthly NLSL at 2013.5. That, my dear market maniacs, will be the final chance for the bears to inflict some major damage and run the tape all the way into the new year.

2015-10-12_zero

Quite frankly I have grave doubts that they’ll muster the mojo. See above the Thursday and Friday sessions courtesy of the Zero indicator. Very little bearish evidence here – the bulls ran this thing higher per the book. But – that said, when presented with an inflection point of such magnificent proportions I consider it my patriotic duty as passport carrying flag waving pistol touting Ketchup squirting red meat chomping cheesy t-shirt wearing paranoid American citizen to speculate the living heck out of it and then brag about it later to everyone willing to listen.

2015-10-12_spoos_setup

So let’s see what we got on the menu today. The daily and hourly panels are a bit in limbo now which is what most everyone is usually looking at. Good – more hapless victims for the taking. Thus my devious plan for today is as follows:

  1. I am short right here with a 1R futures position. In addition I’m grabbing some OTM lottery ticket puts on the spiders given that the VIX is back at 18.5.
  2. All bearish allusions pretty much hit the wall around 2013. My stop is a bit above that but if hit I may consider re-entry if I see sudden weakness. So watching the Zero for divergences will be essential. <shameless plug>If you’re not a sub just yet then I strongly recommend you spring a few bucks and join the club.</shameless plug>
  3. Long positions are a go above 2013 if I see bullish momentum on the Zero.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • RoastBeeph

    With US markets closed, anyone going to be actively trading today in here?

  • Skynard

    US markets should be open today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Coffee is for closers – get to work!

  • RoastBeeph

    WTH, you are right. Why did I think I read that US equity markets would be closed today?

  • tradingmom

    Bonds closed, equities open.

  • RoastBeeph

    Ah, gotcha. You are right, I read that bond market would be closed today. Thanks.

  • ridingwaves

    L Vix short Spx, following Mole…1/2 R
    I hate shorting earning season but Mole is the man….And it’s for America!

  • RoastBeeph

    Merica!

  • ridingwaves

    Canada is closed today…Thanksgiving for those hosers up there…

  • BKXtoZERO

    serious question… not to bust balls, but are we “followers” or did our systems tell us to go short just now. I still admit to not having a system yet and basically being a follower of Mole/the site/the zero freebies etc, mixed w/ my own subpar approach thus far. Just wondering…….

  • Skynard

    Best to be short here bro:)

  • RoastBeeph

    I think Mole is short because we are right up against some major resistance lines.

  • RoastBeeph

    ZL is showing some serious bearishness now.

  • Skynard

    Like I said, stay ahead of the FN game. Hourly div should play out now:)

  • Skynard

    Crude oil:)

  • Skynard

    Shall see what equties can do without following the bond market:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    one other thing that I ponder is a that I see some conflicting messages in terms of the amount or number of trades to take. Sometimes I see that we should only trade when the odds are in our favor which I agree with but in other instances I have seen criticism over cherry picking only the best set ups, or not putting enough trades on in a system. Just trying learn and reconcile some conflicting messages.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My system permits me a lottery ticket short based on what I presented above. Which part of what I outlined was not clear? That of course does not mean that you, BKX, agree or should be short here. Perhaps your system suggests to either be long or to remain neutral.

  • Skynard

    Trade your system and fuck the rest of the garbage!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There is no pre-alloted number to follow. Entry opportunities occur in surges followed by periods of inactivity. Have you read nothing of what I have posted over the past few months/years? I sometimes feels like some people come here, ignore the post, and immediately proceed to the comment section. If so then I may as well shut this place down.

  • BobbyLow

    Morning Folks,

    Took 1/2 Profit off on Long Crude and holding on to other half with stop below closing price below $46.16. Somewhere inbetween the current price and my stop, I might re-add to a full position but will see how price shakes out. New positions from this morning – Got stopped on Long GBP/JPY for -1R and might flip to short at next hourly close. I’m also still Long EUR/USD.

  • Ronebadger

    Columbus discovered The Bahamas…a fine place for Europeans to visit…right up to today.

  • tradingmom

    I think his question was more like “is it okay to have a system that says go short when Mole tells me to?” IMO, yes, if you also understand the entry/stop/exit rules of this trade.

  • Skynard

    Go Bitch!

  • Skynard

    Nice signal on the lower 5 min panel.

  • BKXtoZERO

    don’t mean to be a bug. I saw your quote from above (recently too) and have read everything. I honestly just see conflicting messages at times.

  • RoastBeeph

    Are you talking about the older mole signal, the bubble indicator?

  • Skynard

    No, dash line in the lower panel. Is is the faster signal.

  • Skynard

    I see topping tails again on the /ES. Similar to crude last week.

  • Round we go

    last weeks divergence paid this week? added to longterm short position. and another shot at vix lottery ticket. will see. glencore being attacked again, and rio wants them gone, fireworks ahead?

  • Round we go

    jpy on the move.

  • ridingwaves

    VIX reached 16.80, has some support here and its the area I’ve been waiting for…maybe better action after europe closes…

  • Skynard

    One more pop for stops.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not looking good for the bears right now…

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See above – that Zero signal is looking real. Sorry to burst your bubble again but you got to be careful with wild predictions.

  • ridingwaves

    added V L for 1R total…

  • Skynard

    Does not affect my trading, thanks though. Are you watching crude oil!

  • Skynard

    Not predictions, it is called a plan dude.

  • Skynard

    If cruce loses 48 it will be a long day for the bulls.

  • Skynard

    Lets just say that we hardened the fuck up. If many have noticed, that’s all it is:) Plan the trade, trade the plan!

  • Skynard

    Taking some /QG off at 2.56

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m just going to stop the dialog because every time I dare to point out something you’re responding aggressively. On my own blog I may point out.

  • RoastBeeph

    Skynard, how much importance does your system place on elliot wave theory?

  • Skynard

    Not allot, it generally helps me make a more educated decision.

  • Skynard

    I’ll stop posting, no problem.

  • tradingmom

    That was so educational to watch in real time that I have been wondering if you set it up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You must be new here.

  • RoastBeeph

    I know the other mods don’t believe in EWT, that is about all I know.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh, I just realized I misunderstood your comment – sorry – deleted the others.

  • Ronebadger

    Is it still a “theory”? It must have been proven by now…

  • RoastBeeph

    Today’s a pretty low volume day so far.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That one cracked me up…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Keep posting dude. I value your setups, as do many others here do as well. I dont take trades based on anyone’s predictions, but its always good to know that an overall consensus of a long or short setup amongst experienced traders here will play out, if not now then later. Mole puts things in perspective for everyone here because we all need to be reminded that any condition can change on a daily or hourly basis, and it would be stupid for anyone to blindly follow anyone else. As a scalper I take each hour as it comes.

  • Ronebadger

    Social Security = Ponzi Scheme

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Be this as it may. Rude or aggressive behavior against the host will not be tolerated. This is my house – act accordingly.

  • ridingwaves
  • RoastBeeph

    Agreed, all the opinions here are valued. I think its much better than having a forum with no posts.

  • ridingwaves

    watching XLF verrry closely….citi, GS and JPM report this week…cracks should appear here first…

  • RoastBeeph

    Are we just going to ping pong all day in a narrow range?

  • Round we go

    copper is starting give it up. die base metals, die!

  • ridingwaves

    pathetic volume..

  • ridingwaves
  • Billabong

    No bond pressure … with bonds closed for the day.

  • Billabong

    It’s only a theory if it isn’t integrated into your system, then it becomes part of the regimented process…. 🙂

  • Billabong

    CL with a 5% hit….

  • BobbyLow

    I took profit on half of my position of UCO off near the open. I just put in a MOC order to buy some back. It’s still a buy on my Daily and stop isn’t too far away now so it’s worth the risk to put some back on for about $2.00 less than I sold it for.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thinned out my longs to only 1/4 position. Probably will stay pretty light this week. On a side note, going to get serious about my record keeping after seeing what you guys do on a regular basis. I have a lot of work to do.

  • BobbyLow

    There is absolutely no reason why successful traders or anyone for that matter needs to be an asshole. The world is full of them and as far as I’m concerned you can shit on one and cover it up with the other.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im already at the movie theater. Didnt see any reason to watch the boring market of today

  • RoastBeeph

    Completely agreed. I don’t understand why anyone needs to be bitchy. How does help anyone?

  • ridingwaves

    someone was selling huge blocks into this move up all day….

  • RoastBeeph

    You can trade during the movie!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    RB – you are missing the point completely. This is not about opinions or censorship.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What exactly is conflicting to you? We have been practicing exactly what we preach here, which in a nutshell boils down to this:

    1. Have a system with rules – any system.
    2. Trade all entries as they present themselves.
    3. Profit.

    The nuts and bolds have been served up here for years now. Clearly we cannot do any hand holding and it is up to you to study the ample material provided and establish your own trading approach.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I promoted a few rats to moderators:

    tradingmom
    ronebadger
    ridingwaves
    billabong

    use your powers wisely

  • stovis

    So, /ES got to 2014 and the market is closed and you have no zero to see the strength until tomorrow. It looked pretty weak today though. So, what do you do Mole in this scenario if it keeps going up a little after hours? Or are you already out?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Perhaps “conflicting” was a negative sounding word. How about just not perfectly clear to me. One post about a year ago by now you were kind of on people for cherry picking the set ups. I think I got your point at the time though and it was that you never know which ones turn out to be great, but there is also the common sense theme of trade ONLY when the odds are more in your favor. I can tell when things look good and the “flurry of activity” was great. In prior years forcing the tape as you call it during less clear periods, was my undoing. I was out all day but will be thinking hard about a system this winter as time opens up. Thanks for your time.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Great question – in general barring any additional information or lacking needed information I proceed with the original plan. So in this particular case what happened was that my stop near 2013 got touched. I am not long yet as I need to watch the tape a bit more. It’s been a sideways session but the Zero was pretty solid in positive territory all day – see below. **Which means that odds support the bulls at this point** (and have so in the past few sessions)

    So given all this I am waiting for a little pull back after which I plan to be long **if things hold up here** My own personal problem is that it’s getting late over here and that I may miss that entry as the Mole does require a few hours of sleep. Which is always a possibility. This is unfortunate but these are the cards I have been dealt and I am not willing to flip right here right now without further information.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero snappy:

    .

  • BKXtoZERO

    You sure nailed CL….. I agree w/ Candlestick Emupper and a few others that I would greatly miss your posts as well if you stop. Hopefully you and your style can coexist.

  • amokta

    ‘Dell to buy EMC in $67 billion record tech deal, aims for cloud market’
    Has Doc Brown has taken us back to 1999?

  • Round we go

    hah hah, they are borrowing 50 billion to buy them. that’s a lot of liability at these nose bleed levels of tech. they are strange go private then borrow to acquire. crazy like a fox or desperation move?

  • amokta

    There are some things money can’t buy. For everything else, theres a leveraged buy-out followed by chapter 11 bankrupcy.

  • tradingmom

    Thank you, sir. I am honored.

  • Round we go

    The design studios I used to work at used to buy me $4k for a dell workstation for 3D work. Last week I upgraded my freelance 3D workstation for home. I went to fry’s and picked up a dell desktop for $589 that is screaming fast compared to the workstation I bought 6yrs ago. tech deflation in the real world. but that’s kinda cool cus it democratizes capital investment for “makers” I am currently working on a two seater micro electric car for china. funny this world 😉

  • stovis

    Thanks for your insight into your thinking in this kind of scenario.

  • RoastBeeph

    ES dipped below 2000 for a little bit overnight. Equity futures are only mildly red now.

  • RoastBeeph

    Does anyone have any general rules or insights when it comes to trading US equity futures in overnight, Non-US hours markets (basically from 6PM EST to 9:30AM EST)?

  • tradingmom

    Watch the top of the hour at 7AM eastern. It always seems to me that the first crew shows up and starts buying right then.

  • Huey

    Nice GBP/JPY short entry overnight. Up 1.5R by the time I woke up!

  • Huey

    Yeah that’s technically the “overnight session”. Some people filter out the first couple of hours before Asia opens.

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, that definitely seemed to happen this morning, had a pop around 7 AM.

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, the pivot times appear to be the 9PM EST China open and 3AM EST European market opens.

  • RoastBeeph

    Let’s see if it continues to rip lower or if we are headed for an overnight gap fill.

  • RoastBeeph

    Starting out with some div on 5 min ES ZL

  • Huey

    Also now short S&P on the break of the prior two lows

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ) ( ) (
    ( /( ( ( ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    )()) ( )))( ‘ (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    ((_) ) ((_)() ) /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    _((_)((_) _(())_)() (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | | || __| ((_)/ / | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | .` || _| // / | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_|_||___| _/_/ |_| ___/ |___/ |_|