Last Chance For The Bears
If you took the equities setup I posted yesterday (short on a break of the daily low with a stop above the high) you didn’t get triggered so saved yourself some angst. If you got positioned early you may or may not still be in the game depending on where you out your stop.
At this stage the odds have changed. Trend continuation is now the highest probability, I make it at 55:45, but the bears have one last chance to pull a hail mary. The good news for bears is that if they pull it off here, early breakout buyers will be trapped in a false breakout. In my opinion it is too soon to buy the breakout, and the bears have one last chance to do some technical damage. That setup is a GAP OPEN SELL SETUP. Sell as usual on a break of the low, stop just above the high.
If it doesn’t happen today the bears are in big trouble. The problem with buying breakouts is that you need a wide stop to deal with potential backtests, so I advocate waiting for a better long setup. Getting long right now does not make sense on a risk/reward basis, even though the odds are high.
FX is going to be a nightmare until equities resolve – I’m following short EURUSD and long USDCHF for intraday setups, nothing else on my radar