Last Line Of Defense (Again)

This is a special intra-day update: The spoos are now sitting at their last line of defense on both the hourly and daily panel. If you are a swing trader or scalp hunter then this may be a great opportunity for a contrarian position:

Things are looking critical – yes, again. The sheer fact that we are flipping back/forth from possible buy to sell signals several times in two weeks should make us think. Equities seem to suffer from an acute case of dissociative identity disorder and that was the big I was covering last weekend. Anyway, this is either a major fake out or it’s the beginning of a big slide. Great prediction there, Mole! ;-)

Well, since I don’t have a crystal ball this means I want to be long here until ES 1400 – once we drop below that I’m short. Very simple – no ifs and no buts, and no lofty guessimations involved. Yes, we may have to change positions a few times until this sorts itself out (before X-Mas please!) but I think the gain will be worth the pain ;-)

You have been briefed!

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 7th, 2012 at 11:13 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Come on – back to work you lazy rats! ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Coffee is for closers!

  • Joe_Jones

    Just when I have no idea of what’s going on, the market turns my way. I’ll take the coin regardless. ;)
    Seems like Bobby Low’s Georges Constanza strategy is worth investigating. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    635 and the snow will fall.
    Muwahahaha.
    http://s9.postimage.org/fpnptm9l9/NOV02_winter_is_coming.png

  • wrc1k

     Zero is reaching 88mph – are we going “Back to the Future”  . . . . . 1987 ? ? ?

  • Joe_Jones

    Christmas is coming early this year

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Better buckle up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ignore Mole long scalp signals right now…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Kondratieff? 

  • Joe_Jones

    I think GS is pissed about last night’s election results 

  • Joe_Jones

    Aye Aye Kaiser :)

  • wrc1k

     Yeah, I joined CC about a month ago, locked and loaded.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I cannot over-state how important it is to get positioned here. ES 1400 is your binary line – don’t blow it!!

  • I Bergamot

    Just FYI, I have a small amount of money invested in stocks. Mostly long.
    But if I had a big long portfolio on margin, I would be losing my head just about now.
    Margin calls are around 3:15pm.
    Crash?
    Methinks, there is 40 to 80 bil of QE3 out there. Today is a better day than any in a past couple of weeks. I don’t trade based on this.
    ES open interest is about the same as 2 weeks ago. Big boys are not very interested in shorting? This can change in a jiffy.
    I’ll just wait a bit

  • wrc1k

     CC just put up a new post

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m short now with a stop above ES 1400. Will flip if we push back above.

  • Joe_Jones

    Do you plan to take profit at the next volume hole (ES 1388)?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Depends on the velocity.

  • Joe_Jones

    Ok, I follow you.

  • Joe_Jones

    What makes this move vicious IMO is that few expected such a drop today.

  • wrc1k

    I really like the “notes” on the ZL.

    Again, thanks for all that you put into this Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fortunately I didn’t go to the gym today. May have missed a good one…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not today but some people I talked to expected a sell off. Now let’s see if we actually get it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Easy now folks – we got a great entry near 1400. Be prepared to give back all your current profits. That’s the only way to play this one.

  • Joe_Jones

    To be honest, I was ready to throw the towel on my shorts today and go massively long precious metals after seeing DX’s drop off last night. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no, 4th Turning.
    but hey, if the Blizzard fits, use it. ;-)

  • fast and steady

    The beast in me really wants to go long /es here. Time to play it cool. Molecool. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Relax, breathe deeply, go get a coffee. My stop is now at 1400. Willing to hold here unless I see a major divergence or reason to scale out.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    as usual, Gerb drives in and the ..

    Holy GuacaMole’!

    DOW -281

  • ptosh

     Joe:  you were one of the lone voices on here advocating being short.  Thank you.  I stayed short through monday and tuesday and cashed in today, but took less than 30% of the profits that could have been made w/ a little bit more patience this morning.  When I’ve been underwater and then get a chance to bail w/ a gain i take it, oftentimes way too quickly.  never sure if it’s a short lived window or a true change in the tide. 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I think reverse..everyone was talking the Romney rally and the sell Obama..

  • I Bergamot

    30yr bond and dollar not confirming last hourly low ?

  • fast and steady

     Check last 4 days of eur/usd and /es relationship. No edge there recently.

  • I Bergamot

    yes

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks ptosh. I was that “” close to bailout myself today of my shorts. Glad I didn’t. As soon as we see a positive div on ZL, I’ll cover my shorts and go long 1/2 position.

  • Skynard

    Wow, Stopped out of every long. Going back in long right here. ZL is telling:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeez, you could have called sick today

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    omg… just changed platform – will be out of action (of all days!) for a few days…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    now you tell me

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are now at the ES 1388 volume hole. A breach below would drive us lower.

  • wrc1k

    “If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour… you’re gonna see some serious shit.”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If it exceeds 1388 in our case :-)

  • captainboom

    Surely you jest?

  • ptosh

     great discipline.  i panicked.  left a boatload on the table.  at least i refrained from having even a single long pos. 

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c85145db-c33d-483c-bdb4-5cf1513bf420/2012-11-07_1130.png
    mmm big deal. Im just sitting here with dumb shorts in nzd/usd that are only profitable what 50 pips. Looks like the short in the aud/jpy was the better choice. But hey at least Im recovering quickly from the absolute rip off of the eur/aud.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    1388 is our back to the future threshold:

  • fast and steady

    hmmm. Gold looking very strong

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why would you panic if you got the entry where I announced it?

  • Skynard

    /CL, /HG longs, Guying the FN dip:)

  • fast and steady

     What are you seeing?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Analyze it – use it as a learning experience.

  • Skynard

    Capitulation me thinks:)

  • I Bergamot

    Nasdaq A/D is at lowest reading since June 1 bottom

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The key in trading this sell off is not caring about losing your current profits.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYNElueJj_w

  • Schwerepunkt

    Does the drop to 1384 constitute a breach of your volume hole, Mole?  Uh, figuratively speaking, of course. And don’t forget, PnF target was 1380.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/0f7ff4bd-2407-4340-9df2-b64d3a99d176/2012-11-07_1136.png
    sorry here is the weekly chart. Who knows really I think going short yesterday was the better choice going short now might just be a commission generator. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Took half of short position off the table

  • raised_by_wolves

    Based on weekly charts, I opened an equities short, gold long pair trade today.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I respect your opinion but, hasn’t the horse already fled the barn?

  • ptosh

    poor position management.  expected to get bull crushed as usual.  played it safe after holding 2 nights underwater. 

  • I Bergamot

    V bottom is the best kind of the bottom.
    The other good bottoms are: double bottom, rounded bottom, soft bottom, smelly bottom…(wait – smelly?)… What site is this?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    complacency  yep, good analysis Mole’ster.

  • fast and steady

     dude, change your avatar. it’s pretty fucking offensive.

  • Joe_Jones

    can you post the charts?

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • AMCabrera

    out of my nzd/usd and going short usd/jpy. this is simple stop at 80.00

  • AMCabrera

    also going short usd/chf stop will be at todays high 9470

  • ptosh

     nice read. 

  • AMCabrera
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    for those hope-ing for a long bounce,

    pray this inverted T has ended.
    http://s13.postimage.org/ze6a0b26t/inverted.png

    otherwise, this is just a continuation of trend down, and you want to have something warm.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Tomorrow is an important data day, especially for GBP: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Moved my stop above 1397 (VWAP) now. Perhaps today is not the day…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Someone will probably tell me that I can’t trust /GC minus /ES and should instead chart /GC divided by /ES, but fuck it, hell, I don’t care.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/adb1d000-0837-4d07-991b-714650158f59/00003844.png

  • Curiousmind3861

    anyone here thinks 1388 spx will hold for today?

  • Joe_Jones

    This is good. Thanks RBW. I’m eyeing a silver long myself with HL

  • Joe_Jones

    You are asking for an opinion but that may not help you at the end. Better focus on what Mole, ZL and VWAP are saying. 

  • Skynard

    Closing the gap, LOL:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Doesn’t matter what we think.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     The 4H looks like it may be a bottom




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