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Last Stop Before The Abyss
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Last Stop Before The Abyss

by The MoleFebruary 11, 2016

And once again overnight things have turned from ugly to worse. In accordance to the growing pattern of countering NYSE buying interest with systematic overnight sell offs the spoos are currently choreographing the devil’s dance merely a handful of handles above the pivotal ES 1800 mark. After Chairwoman Yellen yesterday squashed any remaining vestiges of hope that negative interest rates may be on the horizon it seems that any remaining buying interest is now abandoning ship as evidence by exponential candles in the perceived save havens of gold and bonds. EUR crosses are exploding higher as well with the EUR/USD now piling for the 1.14 mark.

2016-02-11_spoos

Given that everyone seems to be sharing the very same (negative) outlook I have taken out an obligatory lottery ticket (1/3R) at the 1805 mark. However I fully expect to lose that bet as all that separates us from the looming abyss now are the psychologically sensitive 1800 mark and the lower 100-week Bollinger. They may hold but given the prevailing pessimism odds have it we are going to close the week quite a bit lower.

2016-02-11_events

Yellen is getting one more opportunity to smooth things over today half an hour after the open. Quite frankly I wish she would just get it over with and announce a 1% rate hike. It’s been over a year of blue balling at this point and I think I speak for most everyone reading this that we’re sick and tired of the ceaseless hemming and hawing. Perhaps it’s best to just tank this sucker and then build a functioning economy on top of whatever is left of this ridiculous house of cards.

The Penitent Man Will Pass

It’s okay to be contrarian here (i.e. while the 1800 mark remains intact), but do it with TINY position sizing and expect to lose at least three times your envisioned stop. That means if you want to lost 1R at most then don’t bet more than 1/3R and keep your stops loose (10 handles minimum). Do NOT use limit orders for your stops – yes, you will get screwed on the fill, that much I can promise you.

Remember the scene in Indiana Jones And The Last Crusade – ‘Only the penitent man shall pass’. You need to respect the force of the market that may be unleashed here. So don’t be arrogant and think that you may know something millions of other market participants don’t. Turbulent times like these attract gamblers and adrenalin junkies like the dancing light of the fire in the night draws the moths – in most cases resulting in the same outcome.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tomcat

    Mole can you explain what R is? is it a % of the position?

  • Yoda

    like capitulation this starts to smell. Plan for today: take profit on short risk, look for entry on long risk, and short gold.

  • MK Ultra

    R is your initial risk on a trade. It is the amount that you will lose if your initial stop loss is hit. Some people make their R 1% of their account, but you could make it .5% or 1.5%, but the cap (and I think most on this blog agree) is 2%. There is a lot of info on this blog and also Van Tharp. http://www.vantharp.com/tharp-concepts/risk-and-r-multiples.asp

  • Billabong

    Read Education tab at top of page … Mole has put a lot of work into the education part. You may want to also consider going either to Van Tharp’s site or Youtube and watch his video on R.

    EDIT: See MK Ultra below for Van Tharp link.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I love the smell of blood in the morning, blood sausage, blood pancakes, blood bacon.
    Smells like….Victory

  • Billabong

    We’ll see if the energy bleeds off over the next couple of days and brings GC back inside the upper BB.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Great post mole, thanks. Today is going to be volatile and interesting. Trade safe everyone and dont get raped.

  • Tomcat

    Looks like PA is breaking out of its range

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Palladium? Pennsylvania?

  • Yoda

    Given that OPEX next week we have, and bulls’ blood all over the street is splattered, the risk/reward for the next few days is better up than down. For clues of a bottom the Zero signal I will monitor.

  • mugabe

    imo, (around) here IS a reasonable place if you want to go long for a possible bounce off support, but knowing you are swimming against the tide

  • OzarkHillBilly

    A riptide. But I hear what you’re saying. I bought some DXD calls yesterday when it seemed prudent, thankfully. Might take some profits here to balance out my short bets on GLD.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tomcat – take a look a the Education section. Also under the menu left side menu there is a link to ‘key concepts’ – explained right there. I have tried to put all that stuff right to the front – there’s a ton of educational stuff here if people just go one click deep.

  • Yoda

    If a sub you are, a positive divergence on 5 mn Zero I would want to see first

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Honestly I think my page explains it better. Van Tharp’s stuff is awesome but may be overwhelming for a noob.

  • Tomcat

    everything is clear as mud, and to me cash is the clearest position

  • mugabe

    did you ever play the Van Tharp position sizing simulation? tried a couple of times and impossible to get the target profit.

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of DUST for the last time. 6.15 from 7.3. That thing is for Pikers……. Mostly cash, missed the VIX train being stopped at the low yesterday. Small oil hold is it. edit: Hit was 2% on account.

  • ridingwaves

    Gold hit the PNF target of 1239…

  • Yoda

    If you intend to trade 3X ETF/ETN, always close your trade before the end of the day. Keeping them overnight amounts to gambling.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks. I believe you are right.

  • Yoda

    At great expense to my account that path I walked already. Better to have consistent small profits than expecting to hit the jackpot on each trade.

  • Time Bandit

    All I can say this morning is wow! I try to be a longer term swing trader and it’s not very often that I get a chance to remedy a screw up and be immediately rewarded. A couple of days ago I was totally pissed at myself for making two errors by going against my own rules. One of them was taking a counter trend trade in the GBP/JPY and taking a 1R Loss. What happened was that some of my old loser mentality took hold and began to speak to me saying “hey you got 1750 Pips on the last short and it’s due to reverse now”. Well that was absolute Bullshit. When I took the long counter trend trade, I missed another 700 Pips straight down.

    So last night, I wanted to get back in sync and went back in Short at 164.16 and it’s now at 162.42 at this moment. This is really no big deal and whether or not it turns into another runner or a loser is not important. What is important is that my process is correct and I traded correctly.

    I was also reminded of one of Jesse Livermore’s quotes: “Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.”

  • ridingwaves

    a liar I maybe, the force left me in some awesome canyon in Sedona…old PNF chart I saw above, update….miners I should not have sold….maybe small retrace for beautiful cup and handle explosion…
    http://s29.postimg.org/fwfnlp987/Gold_PF_21116.png

  • Yoda

    Old chart probably right it is.

  • Yoda

    Goldman and Gartman being publicly bullish on gold a warning for bull it is.

  • Yoda

    FYI

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • saltwaterdog

    Kudra where are you

  • Yoda
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Closing SPY short today/ tomorrow once the hourly gets oversold. Daily also getting very close.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Yoda

    In that trade I am not. I would take profit today, if I were in it.

  • ridingwaves

    selective buying I do see, Bio sector led this red waterfall and it is picking up some bids

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    short covering IMHO, sell it, buy it back.
    follow thru would be key.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Watching the $DJT on the hourly, as it has done well since the Jan lows and scraping the bottom of it’s channel.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, that spx volume hole noted in blue in 1700’s is looking more in play everyday…
    http://s2.postimg.org/nsvu1n2nt/Spx_long_term_close_of_day_pnf_1_29_16.png

  • ridingwaves

    nice entry and trade…

  • Kishore Kumar

    Right on! Equally applicable to Options also! It just so happens that if I keep it overnight it goes against me but if I don’t keep it overnight I miss a big move! My bad luck?

    One has a little bit more control during the day for intraday trading and that is what can bring in consistent, though small, profits. Hitting a jack pot by luck actually can screw up one’s thinking in the long run and likely to make one a gambler, if not already one. The odds of winning a lottery are pretty slim, almost none to win more than once and zero to win with any consistency.

  • ridingwaves

    gold market only real in the far east now….possible bad outcomes in the paper leverage trade if delivery request overwhelms….

  • ridingwaves

    This is prudent, I had a bunch of it Friday of last week but took trip to enjoy the southwest so closed it same day for breakeven….next trade

  • Yoda

    The way of the turtle… 😉

  • mugabe

    They’re more volatile. If your stop and position size take this into account, I don’t see why they can’t be held overnight. But I’d agree that it’s not the place to start your trading career.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks. Almost there.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Just got out of my DXD calls. Gonna chill for bit and take a look around before doing anything else.

  • mugabe

    I hope he closed his positons out

  • BKXtoZERO

    I doubt it

  • BKXtoZERO

    I had been doing well holding the last few years, BUT… with common sense, with the trend, small position size, only if up etc. I got sloppy with DUST. My records show losses like today but more gainers in an account moving up. This was counter trend. The trend changed.

  • mugabe

    yeah .. position size is everything .. will be very very different if day trading or holding overnight .. I think a lot of people don’t grasp this

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • kudra

    majorly f’ed. down 120K on DUST. Yesterday was my exit at $8+ and i failed to take it. My entry last wed. – horrible (went against the grain, which was abundantly clear by the end of the week), adding to the losing position – horrible, not exiting for $30K loss yesterday – horrible. stunned I am. Not sure what to do now. Selling DUST now seems like selling at the absolute low. help!

  • BKXtoZERO

    sounds exactly like what you said about Natural Gas not long ago. Not to be hard but you do realize it is the exact same thing, exact same issues that got you there again.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Closed SPY short

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Once it got close to oversold on the oscillators, was enough for me. Not going long though either.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Everyone sticking to the script?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Daily oscillators getting there too. But going to just watch for now. Leaning very heavily towards waiting until Tues to think about longs.

  • Edd

    Please, please, please stop now. Walk away for an extended time period. You have major psch issues. I have been where you are. Much long and difficult work now lies in front of you. It is no different than any other debilitating addiction. You are sick and must start the repair and healing process. Please stop before you ruin what is left, and then potentially your life.

  • saltwaterdog

    why was $8 the exit yesterday, or are you just pointing out the optimal exit point with hindsight?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Kicking ass so far today. Looks like we might finally begin seeing some accelerating downside of the move since beg of Jan….may know by later today or tomorrow….eroding though bigtime support right now.

  • Kato33

    Retest of Jan 20 low on SPX imminent. Long PMs still running.

  • Yoda

    Fantastic!!! Trade this market without the Zero I would not dare.

  • Time Bandit

    Having a good day so far Boss. :)

  • hellbent

    Just strapping myself in. Holy shit!

  • saltwaterdog

    First off, I’m sick to see you in such straits. Recognize that you are absolutely 100% choosing to expose yourself to this. It is not happening TO you. You are the operator. And very importantly, you still are at this moment.

    Secondly, I can suggest what to do but I already have. The choice is now yours.

    Third, consider that your statement above about this being the absolute low is based on nothing at all but emotion built on fear. Then ask yourself what you fear most. I can’t believe in your current situation the outcome you fear most is selling the low.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Im in chill mode too. It’s a good feeling.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I needed to further reduce position size as you have been saying a lot lately. Like you, I had entries that were OK but got taken out with tighter stops than you said we should have under these circumstances. So, with buying power used up I was flat footed and out of VIX. Other than that doing well. Can’t skin the bear all the time but NOT being skinned is also not so bad. High cash levels now and trying an intraday XIV right at SP1812 low.

  • Time Bandit

    Well if you can’t force yourself to close the position then do the same thing as with Nat Gas and take 1/2 off at a time. Somebody said it yesterday that your resistance to taking a loss is way beyond normal. This appears to be spot on.

    You might want to print this out in super large font: Nobody likes to lose but everybody loses. Small losses almost always turn into big losses especially if you have no plan.

  • kudra

    hindsight. Once it hit 8+ I was feeling relieved and the thought was to wait for b/e at $9. it dropped for rest of day and closed at 6.98. Today another gap down. The 3x ETF’s are deadly and need to be handled like you would handle a viper. Close em quick if they ain’t working.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This might ordinarily work as a scalp, and has worked in the past in this zone, but things are cracking worldwide and we are facing a rare potential acceleration down through very significant support right here. I’d keep some large powder dry for some tvix.

  • kudra

    so, so true. I must be really sick, if I haven’t learned this lesson by now.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Had to take a couple of hits on GLD this morning but made up for it already. Mentally I feel good about just making the right decision and letting go, which is still something I don’t fully trust myself on even though I’m miles ahead of where I once was. But like we preach here constantly, don’t risk much on lotto tickets to begin with and you won’t have to feel as much pain.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im seeing a .50 to .75 spread on the NQ’s March. Is it time to roll over to the next contract?

  • saltwaterdog

    I consider the very best part of this forum the community of experience that can be shared. Primarily, it’s the shared experience of pain, loss, emotionally-driven recklessness in the markets and overall lack of discipline. I shared mine with you.

    My guess is that everyone here that is trading successfully is doing it with a set of rules, and that approach is either a product of previous disasters that resulted from not having any rules, or the awareness of disasters shared by others of the same. Cmon man. This isn’t about balls. You know what to do. Make two plans. What your’e doing with your current dumpster fire, and a 2nd plan that outlines what you’ll do going forward.

    If you agree with my comment about the community of experience, you’ll post both here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I took my hit too. I got a good exit for DUST at high of the day. Time to admit the trend has changed, won’t be messing with this again. Also, If anyone sees me post about NatGas again shoot me like my sign says……..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sorry man, that sounds like a big negative, although Im not sure how big that is relative to your account size, but thats your business. All I can say is, get out of that trade. You still can. Take the loss before it gets bigger or smaller, stop trading for a few days, re-assess, and set a plan to make that loss back over time – it will be a longer time to make it back than the time it took to lose it, but it will come. First, you have to take a step back and re-assess, otherwise any recent trading decisions will be impulsive based on current loss. I have been there, as Im sure most everyone here has too.

  • Time Bandit

    Hopefully you still have some capital left. Some of us have to learn the hard way myself included. Now is the time to back away and not make another trade until you have clearly defined entry and exits based on technical reasons that are yours and that you have back tested to have at least proven on paper that you have some kind of an edge. Above all, no more Gut Trades. It’s not the vehicles that killing your account it’s the way you’ve chosen to use these vehicles.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Most def. I’m seeing some nibbling in the long options I’m scanning, with somewhat stronger bids that I wouldn’t normally expect quite yet. I’ve seen that evaporate before, of course. My original thinking coming into this week was that we might dance around the lows, above and below, depending on the index, and then bounce to some degree next week. I somewhat wish I had stuck to the plan and not gotten involved in GLD, with a European banking crisis on the horizon, but oh well.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I nibbled a few points off the NQ earlier, quick 2 min trades. Feels good to not be in a position and just watch to see if they wanna take it below 1800 or ram it higher be EOD.

  • kudra

    truth. So much wisdom here. Thank you, all.

  • Yoda

    action @ VWAP is key now

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Try not to laugh, but I just picked up some FAS. Haven’t done that in awhile.

  • Yoda

    Did zero just die? Image not opening for me.

  • Kato33

    Ok here

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    If you are married, perhaps you can have your wife monitor yr account. You set your daily stop losses and if you hit them, you are blocked out of your account for say a week. Crazy idea but sometimes if you can’t help yourself, you need someone to pull the plug for you. Plus the potential wrath of your wife could keep you in check.

  • Kato33

    Rollover dates are 8 calendar days before last trade. Last trade for March on NQ is March 18th. Rollover date is Thursday March 10th

  • Yoda

    fixed

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Got it, thanks Kato

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long NQ 3913

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There was a disturbance in the force….

  • Tomcat

    Let’s if there will be any short covering later today

  • mugabe

    The objective fact of the matter is that you are sick. You need to get away from the markets and that means closing all positions first. You then need to stay way for a good while – months, at least. There is no way of sugar coating this, I’m sorry.

  • Kishore Kumar

    To get that kind of loss, you must be trading really big. It is a common mistake. And it is usually quite expensive.

    Why don’t you trade with a simulated account on TOS. Start with a 10MM account, trade it for a while and see how it goes. You don’t have to stop trading. Just stop using real money but do try to treat the simulated account money as your very own, hard earned.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    That would be a great fakeout before a bigger dive , but I think its going to take some time for the plunge into the abyss to pan out. I mean, we have the entire year to go.

  • randomuser6789

    I posted this on Monday. I will post it again because it is still true. I am not trying to be mean here. You just need to hear this stuff. See below:

    Sell DUST now, right me a check for whatever you get for it, and I will provide your therapy for you: YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING!!!!

    Or you can wait for better prices, but you may not be able to afford therapy when you finally crack and sell your position.

    Seriously, how much has your stubborn loss aversion cost you in the last 12 months? What % of your account have you coughed up to people with better habits than you? How much sleep have you lost worrying over these bone-headed positions you find yourself in?

    I am usually not a confrontational guy, but the subtle approach has gone nowhere with you. I was just like you. I lost an unfortunately large % of my trading account (~40%) by acting stupid, like you. I am not saying you ARE stupid, you are probably quite intelligent, which is why you have a trading account to begin with. But you are ABSOLUTELY acting stupid.

    I have not lost any money in the market in years. Why? I know I should not be trading. When I have a developed, tested plan that I can live with and provides an edge, I will trade. I have not taken the time to finalize anything like that, so the markets are just a hobby. Perhaps they are just a hobby to you as well. At least you can claim $3000/yr loss deduction on your taxes for your hobby. I don’t have any deduction to claim, but I sleep really well.

    You are a tool. Smart traders will take all of your money. Get out before you give away any more. Write me a check for whatever you have left. It will go to better use than you throwing it away in the market.

  • mugabe

    next few days will be interesting as we’re very very obviously at a very major level of support .. currently testing it for the fourth time

  • Yoda

    For a moment using the Force to navigate this tape I thought I had to resort.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out at 3930

  • mugabe

    that was a long trade for you:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Story for Kudra, I was in your spot a few times. I was on E-Trade Pro and one day a service rep was talking to me about an issue I had and they are not supposed to give investing advice but he had my account up and very politely was kind of like “You know you don’t need such large positions” in some such way but with just enough snide tone that I knew what he was getting at and he was right. Later in years when you see even a small position go against you in a big way then you reverse that logic and realize that a small position going RIGHT for you big time is a much better plan and when wrong it doesn’t hurt as bad. Just another view of the same old story here.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Way too long. ;p

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Riding something to multi-year lows is never fun.

    Sounds like you were way, way over invested in this position, mentally and financially. You already know this. Everybody has already chimed in with good advice, so I’ll just add my two cents and be somewhat positive and maybe even contrarian.

    At least you’re not holding options into true oblivion! That’s something to be thankful for. The mental mind games you’ve played with yourself have taken a toll, but you do still have a position that might indeed recover a bit. Of course, you’ve been telling yourself this the whole time you’ve been riding it down and you’re even more screwed because of that. A case could be made for a low of some sort around here and a recovery next week. But I’m sure you had a good case for getting in DUST to begin with. You just didn’t have a plan to deal with reality.

    Kudos to you for admitting your losses now, and not fessing up months later after you’re completely wasted. However, it’s been a bit like having your drug-addicted friend coming around for support, but then said friend never does anything to help himself. Everyone telling you to quit and take your losses is really just telling you to genuinely start helping yourself, as harsh as it may seem.

    I do not want to give you false hope (so guys, don’t excoriate me), but if you keep holding today and tomorrow, what’s your plan? I could make a good case for DUST going back to $12ish, but five minutes after I post this, my case might dissipate, and one has to be able to realize this. I’d bet $2 that it goes lower tomorrow. What will you do? If you hold, will you eventually be happy enough if DUST can close today’s gap? Yesterday’s high? Monday’s gap? You better have some objective reasons for everything you execute, and having too much mental, emotional, and financial capital invested makes this hard to do. If you can’t bring yourself to exit here, you need to decide how low you’re really willing to let it go. Zero? Really?

    No matter how you end this adventure with DUST, you better take some time off and get your head straight. Go do something you used to enjoy before The Market got its grips on you. The majority of us have probably had to do that, at one point or another. If it helps, try to think of it as part of your evolution, and although you should be aware of the magnitude of your mistakes and you should feel bad for f’ing up, life does indeed go on.

  • kudra

    Anyone here get long GDX at any point in past 2 weeks? If so, congrats.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bulls need Bill Clinton to make a speech and say “AMAZON” right here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    it’s not sick, it’s the lizard brain. aversion to loss, aversion to being wrong. and maybe straight out fear.

    myself I take a third off, if the pain continues, another third.
    some kind of fraction. anything. the position is continuing to disappoint, why reward it? This could be the biggest learning event for you, and the BEST thing that ever happened. It may take years for you to understand that perspective.

  • Billabong

    I believe Ridingwaves and I had a discussion about miners back in November. I wonder if he has any open positions.

  • Billabong

    Why is everyone getting giddy about OB/OS situations. A move will continue until the energy runs out. The NYSE markets are only on their 5th daily red candle … they’ll be OS on 9-11 red candle day

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long JNUG then..you might have seen the posts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    isn’t Eleven a pagan number?
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Miners reversed up in sentiment at 15.
    bad timing.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06281577190

    Anybody have the infamous video link with The Aussie presenter?
    2% mates. 2% Max.

  • Billabong

    Wow … you caught the right side of that position,

  • Kishore Kumar

    Prudence demands that we do not get caught against a rip-roaring rally or a waterfall selloff. Stop loss orders will also probably get bad fills.

    During 2008-2014, there was never a rally against my short positions or a sell-off against my long positions because I used to cancel my stop loss orders. Just this one single bad habit proved to very expensive, though I had a high percentage of small profit trades through scalping.

    Now, I don’t touch my bracket orders except to take a discretionary early exit with a market order if the target price appears to be just hope.

    The stop loss is less than 1/2 % of total trading capital. Using small positions with far off stops, and minimum time exposure to the market game of Snakes and Ladders, allows me to keep trading. The stop loss orders, being far off, are rarely invoked but I will never, ever trade without them again. I am OK with taking a 1/2 % loss once in a blue moon.

    Moreover, I take only one trade at a time to allows me to focus.

    If I can an average a net just 5 handles on /ES everyday, I am a happy camper! Otherwise, there will be another day as the market will still be there. It is important to always make sure that I will be there too!

  • Time Bandit

    “. . .when you see even a small position go against you in a big way then you reverse that logic and realize that a small position going RIGHT for you big time is a much better plan and when wrong it doesn’t hurt as bad. . .”

    Absolute Truth!

    Reminds me of during 1999 and 2000 when I ended up with about 80% of my accounts in One Great Tech Position. I was up a tremendous amount and thought I was set for life. Then that same Great Tech Position began to unravel and I didn’t know what to do. I kept on looking for reasons to stick with it from any source.

    Needless to say it didn’t end well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    but Ivan said this is not historic market conditions………

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…I was cringing to see all that interest in DUST….it was already a old expired move.

  • Time Bandit

    Exactly. IMO, OB/OS is one of the worst entry/exit indicators there is. The market can stay OB or OS a hell of a lot longer than most of us can remain solvent.

  • mugabe

    each to his own:)

  • OzarkHillBilly

    His powers have faded, IMO.

  • Billabong

    I’m surprised somebody didn’t say something about 9/11…

  • Billabong

    Every attempt to move up is being sold. YM just lost 60 points in a couple of minutes. It will be interesting to see if the large institutions sell into the close … And who will hold over a long weekend.

  • Mark Shinnick

    yes…very interesting :)

  • tradingmom

    I don’t like any of this. No new low, no buying interest, no activity on the zero. Yuck.

  • Mark Shinnick

    So…if things begin to unglue somewhere around here, recall objectives within 1700 to 1500 zone.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m telling you – one of these days this thing is just going to fall off the plate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It would feel like driving blind…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I’m cross posting on the Slope once in a while and what really strikes me is the stark difference in comment quality. We’re getting 10% of Tim’s traffic but heck – at least I don’t feel like throwing up scrolling through the comment stream.

  • mugabe

    see that as more likely than a rally to new highs

  • Kishore Kumar

    Thank you, Sir Mole III, for all the help from you, Scott, Ivan and many others on this forum!

  • Billabong

    What do you see with NQ? Trying to flatten out? Fourth day of sideways move.

  • mugabe

    he is sick in the sense that he is in no sort of psychological condition to be involved in the markets. he has repeatedly made the same mistake – not selling a losing position. complete detachment form the market is required.
    I imply no criticism of him as a person outside of his psychological fitness to trade the markets.

  • Billabong

    I left a comment above with Tradingmom … As strange as it is, NQ has been moving sideways for four days. Storing negative energy or looking for a temporary bottom?

  • Billabong

    We try to stay on track … with guidance from time to time :-)

  • mugabe

    the last time I looked at a comment stream (on the slope), I don’t think you could call it a trading forum

  • Mark Shinnick

    Continuation pattern would be my estimate.

  • BKXtoZERO

    even mine?

  • mugabe

    what makes the streams here both good and bad is the huge diversity of lenses and time frames.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ooot of XIV for 9$ commision loss, or 40% of total account value 😉

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Shorted NQ 3914

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out at 3908.75. Sometimes I wonder why I bother posting my 30 sec trades lol

  • Time Bandit

    This was a good one because you were able to complete a successful short scalp after NQ was already down 50 Points. I like that.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks. I think it has further down to go. Double top on the 15’s

  • mugabe

    and the amazing thnig is he does it while working as a fighter test pilot

  • Time Bandit

    We came within .05 Cents of a $25 Handle on /CL. Now it looks like some backfill short covering happening.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Nice spike on 5 min chart in SPY. Maybe this 1 hr divergence will take hold. Still just watching for now.

  • Yoda

    all short trades closed, long nasdaq now.

  • Yoda

    and short GLD

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I was going to mention that yesterday. I take a glance there usually once a day. Tons of comments on your post, but not a single one in relation to it. Mostly gossip.

  • kudra

    Just sold 21K shares of DUST at 5.21 for 5 loss per share. ouch. still holding 14K shares. – 105 (loss on DUST) + 33 (gains) = 72K realized loss this yr.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Let me manage your account.

  • Time Bandit

    LMAO

    That’s almost as good as Trading Mom lying her baby down on the rug in the middle of a feeding so she could complete her trade. :)

  • kudra

    you probably should. DUST now at 5.40’s.

  • Time Bandit

    Good. At least over half the pain will begin to heal.

  • tradingmom

    sorry, just spx cash. Only have time to follow one market.

  • Yoda

    yes one of these days, but likely not today

  • Darkthirty

    8 goats and 6 virgins in a couple minutes there…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    What’s the best gift you can ever give a suicide bomber?

  • Time Bandit

    And a Market Ocean full of Giant Sharks in wait. . .

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Well this is a bit of a face ripper rally we have here. Hope someone caught some of it. Looks like we may go in the green.

  • Time Bandit

    What?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Not as much as I’d like, but that’s how it always is. Not planning on sticking around unless I really see some follow through.

  • Time Bandit

    Everything must be OK now.

  • Yoda

    Kudra, with all due respect, you have no idea what your are doing. Stay away from trading until you have a system that works.

  • Time Bandit

    Good move on the FAS Billy.

  • Yoda

    Yup

  • Mark Shinnick

    A steel or kevlar sock, so after the explosion his thing is still working for the virgins. They never tell you, however, where to go looking looking for your head…and everything else.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Always has been, of course.

  • Yoda

    expect the tape to rally until OPEX

  • mugabe

    Trump has just ordered the market to rally … safe to come out now

  • Yoda

    My ass off I laughed 😀

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Thanks. Raising my stop on that to just above break even. Not sure it can get over this morning’s high but we have an hour to go. Small position, but if we are bottoming here, then beat up financials might get a nice ride. Looking at some other contra plays like that, but if I commit to anything here it will be small.

  • Time Bandit

    You are on a roll today! :)

  • mugabe

    it’s as good an explanation as any:)

  • Time Bandit

    Where are you from Yoda?

  • Tomcat

    OPEC rumor to the rescue again…nothing new here

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah man, send me an email I’ll show you how this works.

  • mugabe

    yeah, hard to take a trade in the face of the big prevailing trend … I found that with SSO. (net result on that was about -0.3R … not bad considering)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Dude, he can’t even keep his hair straight.
    😉

  • mugabe

    what hair?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    You noticed that too, eh?

  • mugabe

    I think the system is the least of his problems … with his current mentality, he would sink any system … and I don’t mean that in a snidish way.

  • Time Bandit

    For a guy with as much money as he has to have such bad hair is amazing. He probably thinks it makes him look good though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • mugabe

    pandering to the black vote … don’t see him getting it

  • Yoda

    Dagobah is where I call home

  • Time Bandit

    Seriously? Well it looks like the rumor worked for a few minutes although I never want to underestimate the power of Bullshit. :)

  • mugabe

    they’re a bit late

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Not bad at all, really. It’s worth taking a stab at these things if done with proper perspective, IMO. After making sure I’m not taking on too much risk, I also try to ensure that I’m not giving these trades too much attention.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    rumor?, well, let’s take that too the bank and cash it!
    yessiree.

  • Yoda

    News have nothing to do with price action. The selling pressure subsided and we bounced at support. That’s it.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Having a lot of money can help fool yourself into believing a lot of things.

  • Time Bandit

    LOL. Cool, may the “Force” be with you.

  • tradingmom

    Combine a rumor with some new shorts at the break of 1812 and you are bound to get a nice pop.

  • mugabe

    yeah … as long as you’re not overexposed and know what you’re going to do, it takes the pressure off. given my bearish outlook at the moment, it does feel like pennies before a streamroller though

  • Time Bandit

    Very true.

  • Yoda

    and with you too wise man.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    write down how you feel. Every detail.

    you can examine what you would do different later, and how you will NEVER get into that situation again. EVER.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That would be wonderful…hope so.

  • Time Bandit

    One thing for sure is that the GBP/JPY has mirrored the move in equities all day. Again.

  • mugabe

    the bottom’s definitely in … for today

  • mugabe

    yeah, the yen and euros vs dollar have been donig the same

  • Darkthirty

    I might take that bet……

  • OzarkHillBilly

    A penny saved is a penny earned! I’ve got a similar outlook for this year, if not the next few. But I tend to think the bear is going to get poked a bit more this winter before he really wakes up. Caveat: My opinion may change at any time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    another painted floor, down and downer.
    good job!
    I’ll wait for Mole’s commentary – tomorrow!
    😉

  • Yoda

    Painful for late coming shorts definitively it would be.

  • randomuser6789

    Thank you for not always speaking like Yoda.

  • Yoda

    hehe 😉

  • mugabe

    yeah… my bearish view is not having a massive effect on positions and has a 50/50 chance of being wrong or taking longer than I think. what makes me think we could be in a major fall is the extended nature of this top … been dragging on for ages.

  • Darkthirty

    WSJ saying the rumor is BS

  • tradingmom

    I’d like to see a rally back to spx 1847 — take a peek at that recognition gap one last time.

  • Darkthirty

    got a few gaps up that way……

  • Yoda

    just for shits and giggles, here is my count

  • Ronebadger

    Not bad…you have waved well…

  • Darkthirty

    AH will be interesting

  • Yoda

    Somehow EW seems to work better for me in a downtrend. Maybe it is because emotions (fear) are higher and CBs are not supporting the tape anymore (hence less manipulation).

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    oh great, Yoda’s a waver

  • OzarkHillBilly

    What a day. I’m gonna go have a drink, do some push ups, and maybe go work with some power tools.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9tIXj3ac9k

  • almez

    while we did break above VWAP, the zero never closed positive. Friday has seen those 3% up or down days so waiting to see price action tmr morning

  • saltwaterdog

    Peter Brandt ?@PeterLBrandt 1h1 hour ago to KUDRA

    A beginning trader must first learn how to lose in order to learn how to win. Losing is primary a function of capital preservation.

  • Yoda

    Just one tool in the toolbox

  • Darkthirty

  • Kishore Kumar

    The count in the following chart is done automatically by Advanced GET. They even assign a meaning to the PTI (Profit Taking Index). The value of 26, being below 35, probably implies that the market will continue to make new lows in wave 5. It appears, according to Advanced GET, that, on daily charts, wave 5 is not over yet.

    The Advanced GET program is very “smart” as it is “dynamic”. It changes the old counts as the market unfolds. This means that the counts are never reliable to begin with!

    Even just visually, we can all make out are waves 3, 5 and C, for whatever it is worth after the fact.

    For intraday trading, any indicator is probably more reliable than EW counts on intraday charts.

  • Yoda

    I posted the above chart for the “fun of it”. Not taking EW too seriously though, even though it may work better when price discovery is set on “free mode”. EW was designed before algos, QE and PPT. Hence, it is supposed to work better when there is less artificial price manipulation. Intraday though one cannot use it for trading purposes. I really like Sir Mole’s Zero for that.

  • Yoda

    ???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Nick Radge, I keep forgetting that name.
    Want to be a Professional? or at least think like one?, look up

    “What Makes a Successful Trader? By Nick Radge, The Chartist”

  • Darkthirty

    Traders here believe EW doesn’t work and get upset about it. I think they were following prechter and didn’t have a clue……..

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Bringing up EW here is a lot like bringing a six-pack to an AA meeting. I’m a recovering waver myself. Too many ifs, ands, and buts in general to be truly useful in and of itself for trading, IMO. I still see the potential patterns when I look at charts, such as when a seemingly perfect 12345 or ABC pops out, but I’m not trading unless my particular parameters are met. It’s simply too subjective.

    I got a lot more out of EW on the social science side, or as Prechter calls it, socionomics. EW was marketed to a bunch of amateurs (myself included) who had no other context in which to trade and who lacked the most basic trading skills, so they all lost tons and tons of money.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I dunno why the cleanness of this setup makes me suspicious but enough to take moderate SPY long overnight

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Seems too good to be true

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am sort of long but via oil which is already pounded, They are linked and I may not like being long stocks but don’t mind owning oil. My plan was accumulation in the 20s and true to my plan I added today. Up 4.5% in afterhours so far so 13.5% or so tomorrow

  • ridingwaves

    sold them this morning, not confident in the sale…pnf chart posted earlier has it going to 1450 now.. I think we get a handle (move down) on a cup and then blast off

    cheers…end of hike reward yesterday
    http://s24.postimg.org/wrmvxyiyt/sedona_hike.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have recovered to the point that I saw this stuff and not only didn’t comment but didn’t even look at it. I have no count whatsoever. No count for oil or anything else.

  • Billabong

    Rumors on production cuts again or is it the Nigerians…

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Dude I know what you’re saying. But if it fits, you must commit …. at least a bit. I added a little more long at the close myself. Not even going to look at the markets tonight; I’ve been a ticktard too often this week.

  • Darkthirty

    There IS a book, and if you self educate, you’d be surprised. Called DJI 15500 yesterday near the close. EW sucks cause I missed by 3 points. If you follow, you lose…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nigerians, Corinthians…. who cares, time for a bounce or else…… Yellen getting picked on, badgered with questions, banks over exposed to oil losses, everyone talking about oil, fundamentals be damned they simply better do something and I think they will manufacture some kind of crap, could also be currency related, any story that gets em going however ridiculous they will run with. Over 37 and the low is in is my lens. Everyone has now linked oil to falling stocks so if there is to be a plan to get it back, oil will be a squeeze candidate like gold.

  • Time Bandit

    Might want to check the closing Price on your TOS Daily /CL Chart. The actual close was $27.30 for today 2/11/2016. As of 9:39 PM tonight, Price is at $27.51 so it’s really up 21 Cents at this very moment.

    It was around this price at 4PM too so any etf should already have most of this boost in price already in the 4PM close as well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    UWTI (for me) 1.18 today, 1.3 other entry but I see what you mean. Micro bounce so far. Make or break for Everything tomorrow. Ready to short or get long.

  • Time Bandit

    Cool. Sometimes it can get a little confusing when it says that it’s up or down in A/H. It took me a while to wrap my head around what they really mean. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Damn cat, every time I turn around..
    somebody put a bell on it!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Eye Chart test: Is this a BUY? This is constructive and I am here with you but just a sanity check for us all perhaps? Mystery chart:

  • BKXtoZERO

    Then updated…. it is crude. I bought that “double bottom but kept it tight, didn’t like what I saw and GTFO. Now we have another double bottom? perhaps…..

  • phylum

    Have your rules changed between then and now?

  • BKXtoZERO

    slightly. Since Mole’s recent posts, smaller positions and wider stops compared to what I used to do.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Bobby. I saw this: “”It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you
    a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon
    your mind.” ~ Jesse Livermore” I still have not reconciled my feelings if part of your account IS for an “investment” AND, one position (for me) is a predetermined max %, and your plan is a range over which it is likely to occur. I know consensus here is probably firmly against this no matter what you call it. Just sharing. Time and results will tell me for myself.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – ‘Wider stops’ is a tacit admission that ‘timing is not the key’ … as well as evidence that your approach / RBT recognises that … and hence the need for wider stops … to chase the elusive change of direction … in the pursuit of R’s !

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – Dollar cost averaging has been shown to be a valid approach over decades … as long as it is part of the original brief … and hence an overall R-based risk is used.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    More significantly … what does a / your back app show of this hypothesis !

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I ran through my secondary indicators like $VIX, $VXO, treasury yields, junk bonds and all were pointing to some kind of bounce so I had to take a stab. I just don’t like it when the price setup is too clean which makes it obvious.

  • mugabe

    I’ll past some Gann charts tomorrow!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Great example. Having been burned on stuff like this I started working with a cross-referencing checklist of sorts in addition to price. Unfortunately it doesn’t work well with crude which is one reason why I rarely trade it.

  • mugabe

    or that it’s far from being an exact science

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    A RBT is by (my) definition … a black and white set of rules … as opposed to guidelines … the same applies to using a EqC filter … as I present to students.

    Some may (choose to) call it by other names.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    G’Lander – the more bars you have on a single timeframe chart … the greater the probability of such events … my urging always is to have about 50 bars on view at any time … max.

    The devil in the detail concept … works.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Opening Price versus Rotational Opening Price… and Closing Price versus Settlement Price … are realities of data over-looked / unknown by many.

  • kim

    damn bitch doesn’t like shorting today!

  • tradingmom

    Looks like I’m going to get my wish to revisit the gap at 1847!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ya never know. a bear attack could happen anywhere, any time
    😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn3r8dql6vs

  • Yoda

    Wow oil is kicking a$$ today. Is the bottom in one may ask?

  • tradingmom

    short term only.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Right there with you; everything says proceed with nervous caution. Maybe all we get is this morning’s move. But it makes me feel a little better to see all of the massive bearishness that has made it into the general media, if not apparent in other indicators as well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    long TVIX 12.19, stop SP over 1850

  • BKXtoZERO

    I’m in a Piker Play on oil 😉

  • Darkthirty

    When you state “it changes the count as the market unfolds” says it all. With EW you should ALWAYS have 2 counts, the rules will negate one of them and the count morphs again…………..

  • Yoda

    why ST?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks!!! Yes, it is defined plan in quarters, so far 1/2 position

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – The other obvious caveat is (and has to be) … that the concept behind the setup / engagement is valid … else no amount of fancy footwork will not produce the desired results.

  • Time Bandit

    I think Livermore was a trader and not an investor.

    If capital is coming from the same pool and a certain Fixed Percetage is being used for investing then buying dips can be in order. If you can differentiate investing from trading then I don’t think there’s anything wrong with doing both. One problem that can develop however is when an original trade becomes an investment because of loss aversion. So it’s a case of being diciplined enough to not allow your mind to play tricks on you. (If this makes any sense)

  • mugabe

    I think it’ll make it easier if you open another account and have 2 different accounts for each strategy

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Interesting… 50 bars as in 50 time units? So say if I am looking at the daily, limit the view to 50 days? On a side note, what are your thoughts on the value on trading on multiple time frames? I usually have the hourly, 2 hr, and daily line up to say the same thing on my entries. I keep bugging Stockcharts about adding a 4 hr timeframe but to no avail.