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Last Trades Of Summer
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Last Trades Of Summer

by The MoleSeptember 8, 2016

That’s it – summer is officially over. Love or hate it – it’s time to mothball your summer outfits and start airing out the fall and winter gear. Before we know it we’ll be picking out Halloween outfits. Well, you will maybe – I’m already in character all year. Quite frankly I personally am looking forward to a cooler season as it has been one hellish and humid summer here in Valencia with an average dew point consistently pushing way above 63 Fahrenheit (17 Celsius). Which meant that every time I stepped out of our well air conditioned trading lair I started to sweat profusely within a matter of minutes. Having lived in Los Angeles for two decades I have no problem with 90 degree heat plus as long as it’s dry. Mix in this much humidity and the result is a hamper full of drenched t-shirts about every other day. The Mole and high humidity just don’t mix. There must have been a desert rat somewhere in my ancestry.

2016-09-08_spoos

So the E-Mini and various other CME contracts roll into December today, so make sure that you take care of any open positions. Speaking of which, let’s revisit the ES campaign I posted about on Tuesday morning. The December ESZ6 contract is ready for action but has been dropping a little overnight, which may be a late opportunity for stragglers to hop on the long train. Again there is no guarantee that it’ll push higher from here but 2181.5 on the September contract was our inflection point and the formation as of right now continues to look bullish (i.e. higher high and higher lows).

2016-09-08_crude_update

So far the fall season seems to be kicking off well for us. Crude was yesterday’s entry and I would like to offer my condolences to the poor rat who took the other side yesterday. Time to move our stop to break/even. However be advised that this one is far from being in the bag. There is a bit of space to run above but beyond 47 crude will be heading to a critical zone that it needs to breach to change the current dynamics and shift it into bullish mode.

2016-09-08_silver_update

Silver is running like a hare – I’m moving my trail to 19.7. Some of you may actually take partial profits here as silver (just as gold below) is now at an important inflection point. From a bearish perspective the situation is still salvageable but if silver breaches above 20 then I think it may start trending on the daily panel. As of right now I expect a bit of a shake-out, which may lead to my trail being touched. If that happens I’ll be looking for a new entry opportunity in a few days.

2016-09-08_gold_update

Similar dynamics happening over in gold. I should have extended that diagonal on the daily panel which I drew a few weeks ago because we are right smack on it. Once again I expect a shake out drop to clear out weak hands followed by a ramp higher. By the way, when I refer to ‘weak hands’ I am not suggesting that stubbornly holding a position is the right thing to do. Rather I am talking about late comers who chased the ramp higher and will soon find themselves in a losing campaign.

Words To The Unwise

Remember that sticking to your campaign rules is always tantamount, no matter where you enter. And of course bad/late entries can lead to negative trading decisions. A lot of people claim that entries don’t really matter. Well, they do and then they don’t. From a pure trading perspective, given proper campaign management you can really enter wherever you want. It doesn’t matter where you enter – what matters is how and where you exit. Trend traders for example enter late all the time and they lose a good chunk of their paper profits on the way out.

But to a typical retail rat, who’s chasing a trade with a 10%+ position size which he/she cannot afford to lose and then exits on a loss on the first dip down, a bad entry definitely matters as it is the first link in a chain of bad decisions. Consider your entry just as that – a first decision/action which will affect your future decisions/actions. If you start learning how to be a plumber don’t complain that you’re not proficient in playing the violin a few years later. This is actually a big topic which I will revisit in the coming month, perhaps with a dedicated post.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Weird fact-I used to watch the girl in that video run around in her panties with my little sister, she lived around the block….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    YOU LUCKY BASTARD!!!

  • ridingwaves

    she was 17 in that video, she’s a beautiful lady now..

    Go crude!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    embrace your inner desert rat.

    https://www.nps.gov/common/uploads/pwr/park/jotr/45643F80-D78F-2A17-670D485B2E73E6E2/45643F80-D78F-2A17-670D485B2E73E6E2.jpg

    Hurricane Newton finished blowing through (AZ) yesterday, so we dipped into the 90’s!
    break out the Hot Chocolate!

  • ridingwaves

    anyone thinking of shorting bonds here, I might buy into TBT close to fed decision date, risk-reward looks great…

  • ridingwaves

    I love the desert….just not in the summer…

  • Yoda

    Mole, can you lend me the keys of your time travelling machine?

  • Yoda

    nutty gas is on a tear

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I love the beach, can’t afford it.

  • Yoda

    For every budget, there is a beach

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AAPL intraday, uh-oh.
    not that I would short such a lovely thing.
    maybe you *would*!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50711121897

  • Yoda

    It’s not shorting season yet

  • ridingwaves

    Inner Yoda channeling good thoughts

    For every minute your angry, you waste 60 seconds of happiness
    RWEmerson

    Have a great day!

  • ridingwaves

    who can?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’d be happy to oblige but I just traveled to 2020 and after taking a quick tour decided to go back to 1985 and live out my life in a halfway functioning society. Plus gold is at a discount at $327! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which girl by the way? The one running on the beach or that hot thing with the towel on her head?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is that Arizona? Looks like a place in Joshua tree which I used to visit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Beaches are overrated.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    True. Go to Australia or NZ – miles of miles of gorgeous beaches. Where there’s a budget there’s a beach.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I thought that was the toilet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When does that one start officially?

  • ridingwaves

    towel girl

  • ridingwaves

    bammmm, and there goes crude

  • Yoda

    Nov 8th

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    1985… when the whole world admired America. Boy, times have changed.

  • Ronebadger

    I’m with you…but my wife LOVES the beach. To many S’s on the beach…sea, spray, salt, sand, sweat, sun, etc.

  • Jay Thomas

    Originally published as “Every minute you are angry, you lose 60 seconds of happiness.”
    Anonymous folk-wisdom from a 1936 newspaper column, misattributed to Emerson. Great quote one way or the other.

  • ridingwaves

    TBT-Buy order in for 31 even….

  • Tomcat

    Mole, don’t feel bad about the “poor rat”…he deserved it.

  • Tomcat

    Taking a gamble (L Sep 16 100 strike puts) which I don’t necessarily see how it will pay out since they won’t release the first weekend figures for the iphone 7, which in my eyes is a HUGE disappointment

  • ZigZag

    What think you guys about /zm? Interesting from a stop location standpoint.

  • ridingwaves

    take your chart 2 years back and look at the carnage.
    the bulls are probing your top blue line and the envelope is tight, break out is most likely here or very near…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, I shorted miners again this morning…DX still holding its trend line.

    Still holding some modest equity shorts.

  • Yoda

    IMO now would be the time to reverse the trade and go long.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    meh – I just got lucky – could have easily gone the other way

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Better music too and girls weren’t staring at their mobile phones all day. The 80s were fun.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I got that; a bunch of PM buy signals…its perversely the why for the short at the moment.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    EXACTLY. Mrs. Evil used to be the same way but years of indoctrination finally swayed her my way. I don’t like the hot sun, the salty (often filthy or algae infested) water, the fat tourists in front of me who insist on gorging themselves, the screaming kids (another s for you). Everything is overpriced and I can’t read my book because someone has the ratio cranked up. Prefer a hike in some lush green mountains or even a moderate deset any day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Do you guys abide by your rules after entering those campaigns? Just asking…

  • Ronebadger

    CAVEAT – I DO take a Caribbean cruise every winter and WILL go to the beach every island I hit. There’s something about 85F weather, a nice beach on Antigua or Grenada with a trade wind breeze, pretty water with calm surf (another “S”) and a beer in hand under a palm tree…while it’s 20F in February in New York.

  • ridingwaves

    Hmmm…
    it is a great quote by whomever, RWE had that kind of prose though so I could see how that could happen…has same feel as some other great quotes by him.

  • ridingwaves

    You 2 need to head to Kona side of the big island, north of waikoloa….
    pristine beaches with no radios and big people nearby…in fact you can hike down to some beaches and not see a soul…..watch out for those tiger sharks though, they are thick around those parts….

  • ridingwaves

    I might get beat up by Mole but the long term Kichin cycle is topping this month…..

  • Tomcat

    As an amateur poker player the saying goes “better lucky than good” although I don’t know of any poker pros that are “just” lucky.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sure hope so… only the rules stand between either lost gains or stupid losses.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No, they just stay out of the way of bad luck.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’d like to see it come down a little more if possible.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fighting a cold, I think the Kale & megavitam-C is saving me so far.

    maybe it’s the B12-Mole shot. Recommended for Fall season.
    Get your daily dose of EvilSpec!!
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sore throat?

  • Edd

    Long, DUST from open @29.67, Long ERX from 31.52 and Long UWTI from 20.30.
    Doing wonderful, system working flawlessly.

  • Yoda

    So far so good. Trading the plan.

  • OJuice

    Contemplating the possibility of bollinger bands converging completely.

  • Ronebadger

    now THAT’S something we can trade

  • Yoda

    chart?

  • Ronebadger

    I got your chart right here
    __________________________________________________

  • Yoda

    smart badger 😛

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Is that the zero line?
    😉

  • OJuice

    Nailed it!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Try to get sodium ascorbate – much better absorption, better for you (and no diarrhea). Also take zinc – BEFORE you get sick. And yeah, drink a lot – double of what you usually consume. Body will take care of it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s one convincing trend line.

  • Tomcat

    This cannot be the end…can it?

  • captainboom

    Probably drinking out of strange toilets again… 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why can it not?