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Let’s Call It A Week
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Let’s Call It A Week

by The MoleSeptember 25, 2015

I just parsed through my universe of charts and what hasn’t blastedย off already is running in circles. Not the type of tape I would want to touch with a ten foot pole. On the equities side there is really nothing to add that hasn’t been said already. My small short was taken out at break/even and I’m staying out of this turd of a tape until we see some real context. Remember my Epiphany post – that general assessment stands now more than ever.

2015-09-25_GBPCHF_setup

Two GBP setups before I call it a week. GBP/CHF seems like a good long here but I’m only playing 1/4R with a stop half a mile away. On the daily we have been testing the 100-day SMA and thus far it’s been holding.

2015-09-25_GBPJPY_setup

The other 1/4R goes to GBP/JPY which is unfolding similarly. Here we are scraping the lower 100-day Bollinger which may offer some support.

That’s it for now, folks. It’s early fall, my favorite season after spring; the weather is excellent (sunny and warm with a nice breeze) and I’m officially calling it a week. See you guys Monday morning.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • hellbent

    Cheers Mole, have a good one!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    @skynard “Think the /ES is in a minor W3 down ATM.”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1360981467/pollard_400x400.jpg

    I can’t believe you just said that!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    lol

  • RoastBeeph

    Sexy

  • Skynard

    Hey, everything help:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    I love the smell of Crude oil doing what I want in the morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sometimes I wonder why I bother…

  • evilasevildoes

    Enjoy the weekend Mole

  • evilasevildoes

    you play the pop?

  • Skynard

    Actually, using some counting banks me real coin especially when swing trading or scalping.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not in crude but I’m in wheat courtesy of Scalpius.

  • Skynard

    Added to short

  • Round we go

    gap fill ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • tradingmom

    Context — 5 min SPX

  • tradingmom

    Gotta go out this morning — g/l all

  • Skynard

    Bottom can fall out here

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See ya next week tradingmom!

  • Skynard

    Had a fantastic week regardless:)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    ZL is flatlining

  • Skynard

    No matter, div played out and the trend is down. Glad to have caught this move and be short ATM.

  • tradingmom

    If I inundate the blog with charts perhaps you’ll reconsider the daily zero? :-)

  • RoastBeeph

    I am kicking myself for having a conservative limit sell on my ES last night before going to bed, missed out on 20 points.

  • Skynard

    Plan the trade and trade the plan, simple as that:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    there are many steadfast sayings here, one is “it’s better to be wishing you were in a trade than wishing you were out of one”. wishing in is the better as no one can know the future, so time spent kicking oneself over that is time wasted.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am ooot as well. It is my “off” Friday. Have fun all. Thanks for help in all forms on all topics……..

  • RoastBeeph

    Very true, at least I wasn’t on the wrong side of the trade going to bed last night. :)

  • captainboom

    Another useful adage from here is: One of the next thousand trades. This is, I think, originally based on a specific system that Ivan referenced that would only last for one thousand trades. Nevertheless, letting it go is important.

    I suspect there is a lesson to be learned if you review the trade. If you traded correctly, even though you missed out on additional gain, you should be patting yourself on the back.

    Next…

  • Skynard

    Short the bitch

  • Round we go

    I think the bears spent their wad on tagging 1900 as mole said they had fun storming the castle. Right when they got to the wall. the hot oil was brought out. they will need a rest to make another stab at the wall it seams. but in this market anything can happen ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Skynard

    Well, you could see some serious selling here. Possible fifth in process after the bulls atempted. Bears are in control bro.

  • RoastBeeph

    No matter how long it takes, I think we are definitely headed back down. I don’t think SPX goes up more than 10 or 20 more points before the next leg down.

  • satouse

    There’s a clear divergence between GBPJPY and the spoos. One of them got to give in to the other. My money is on the currency pair.

  • Round we go

    they are trying to save petrobras and glencore. they are not going to let them crash by choice. they have to try to save them, cus if one of them defaults you will have another aug 24 and then some.

  • Huey

    Light volume on that down move too. I went long for 1/2 position at 1935. May regret it with the daily trend down but could easily pop up to 1980-90 without invalidating the trend, in my book.

  • Skynard

    Bulls are weak and bears can capitalize now. Should see a nice leg down.

  • Round we go

    yah play moles 2000-1900 box til one breaks. stupid is the best policy at this point.

  • Skynard

    You have to trade what is in front of you, think that gap gets filled at SPX 1970 also. But it does not happen in one day. Guess it depends the type of trade you are. Looking for a gap fill below (backtest)then possible ramp.

  • Round we go

    thanks mom

  • Round we go

    inverse head and shoulders on the 5min russell

  • Skynard

    Who cares about them, trade for yourself and do not pay any attention what they are doing.

  • Round we go

    I am now waiting for 1970 to short.

  • RoastBeeph

    I am not sure what kind of trader I am yet, still learning. :)

  • Skynard

    Have to have a FN plan in place.

  • Round we go

    tim knights context chart

  • Skynard

    Bull flag has broken down

  • RoastBeeph

    Sorry for my ignorance, what does FN stand for?

  • Round we go

    you flipping yet?

  • Skynard

    No, still short. Will need to break /ES 1940

  • Skynard

    /TF showing weakness

  • Skynard

    Bear flag 5 min

  • Round we go

    look how strong dow held up.

  • Skynard

    Market testing res again, dought it can be overcome right now.

  • Round we go

    so will we have a Friday afternoon ramp job? or crash to oblivion. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Round we go

    thar she blows.

  • RoastBeeph

    Sticking to the plan seems paramount. I whipsawed myself out of some trades earlier this week because of fear. I need to be more disciplined.

  • Skynard

    Do not believe we have a trend day.

  • captainboom

    F*&%ing

  • Skynard

    No emotions, stop trading

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like I missed out on all the action! hehe

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why don’t you say so then?

  • Skynard

    That gap looking might tasty, go bitch:)

  • Round we go

    i vote we fill it in one to two weeks ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Skynard

    Lol, could be filled in 2 mins with this volatility:)

  • Round we go

    you could also see 1970 today with volatility ๐Ÿ˜‰ note vix is resting today.

  • Round we go

    refresh of mom’s context from yesterday.

  • Skynard

    Well, whatever it decides to do will be sure to follow:)

  • RoastBeeph

    LOL

  • Skynard

    Will be mostly cash by EOD, need to wind down for a bit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Somebody pinch me please….

    .

  • Billabong

    I thought you left for the day?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s night time here – about to have dinner.

  • tradingmom

    I’m so glad I got home for this!

  • RoastBeeph

    Damn, slope up is getting more extreme!

  • Billabong

    Don’t you have dinner about 10pm in Spain?

  • RoastBeeph

    Did you get in short before this drop?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    68R in under 2 months. I’m trying to curb my enthusiasm but this is insane.

  • tradingmom

    No, I was so busy studying the trendline break I didn’t get an order entered!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I draw the line at 9:00pm.

  • Round we go

    you had a tremendous week. go enjoy the outdoors and smell what earth has to offer instead of charts ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • RoastBeeph

    Did you back test this system before you started running it? I am guessing you did. How did it perform historically?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, it has all been posted here…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • RoastBeeph

    I’ll look through old posts.

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks.

  • Billabong

    @ RoastBeeph … you mentioned you didn’t know what type of trader you were. What type of trading books and/or videos are you watching?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Stopped out of SSO when it fell out of consolidation zone. Going flat into the wknd. GL all

  • RoastBeeph

    Wow, system actually picks more losers than winners but the winners are much bigger gainers. Great job.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out at NQ 4232 (entry was short @ NQ 4292 that I posted earlier in the previous Storming the Castle post)

  • RoastBeeph

    I’ve read John Murphy, Martin Pring, among others, to get the basics. I’ve recently read Technical Analysis using Multiple Timeframes by Shannon. I am trying to figure out a system that works best for me. Right now, I am just using pivot levels, trend lines and trying to be aware of which part of the intermediate and short term cycles we are in, how many legs up/down we’ve been in, trying to trade with the cycle.

    I want to get to the point where I can take emotions out and just play a system with as strict rules as possible.

  • Skynard

    Holy shit

  • RoastBeeph

    Per usual, I sold half my shorts before this drop lol. I’m my own worst enemy.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it’s a ST trend trading system – win/loss ratio really is not that big of a deal. Many people look for systems with large win/loss ratios but that is deceptive (unless you find the holy grail).

    What is hugely encouraging is that it often gets even better exits than in back testing based on a special trailing technique I implemented. Today we would have gotten out at 2R on wheat after reloading the chart but in real tape it did 2.7R. Which is brilliant and I more than I hoped for.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See above – I posted all the stats – they are live.

  • tradingmom

    http://www.amazon.com/Reading-Price-Charts-Bar-Technical/dp/0470443952

    I’m a fan. I think there is a newer version, maybe even broken out into 3 books? Not the easiest read, but great.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    did a bomb go off somewhere?

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks, I’ll order the book. Any other book recommendations? :)

  • tristan37

    Gap filled, what a plan you had.

  • Skynard

    Grtting long @ 1920

  • Skynard

    Filled

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Do you have any statistical data on pivot levels? Meaning have you proven to YOURSELF that they actually offer an edge? Just because people write books doesn’t mean what they are telling you actually works.

    QUESTION EVERYTHING. TEST EVERYTHING YOURSELF. Don’t believe a word anyone says – me included. Always do your homework – there are simply too many shysters out there and you may wind up spending months/years of your life chasing a system that you think has an edge but doesn’t.

    At least 50% of the stuff you read is probably either bullshit or obsolete in this market environment. You have work to do – start this weekend – do it now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, read Van Tharp’s books – he will show you how to become self sufficient and cut through the crap. Statistics is EVERYTHING – beliefs/opinions are worthless.

  • Skynard

    Fuck it long now

  • ridingwaves

    I think that may play well as this sell off is a little early, think they run it up into close, though NAS is under heavy pressure..

  • tradingmom

    we are now 15 pts under vwap. That’s a pretty big spread. Any time over 10 pts and I start looking for something to base a reversal on (divergence, trend line, etc.)

  • RoastBeeph

    I really appreciate the advice. Any specific Van Tharp book that you recommend I read first?

  • Billabong

    Good … first step is understanding the mechanics. Second step is overcoming the psychological challenges. Right brain vs left brain. You may want to consider watching a a couple of Van Tharp videos on YouTube or at his site. The one on R multiples (risk management) is particularly good. A favorite here is Nick Radge’s video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM

  • Skynard

    Added long, div 5 min, long is the play

  • Billabong

    How was diving the other day?

  • Round we go

    holy f! another off the lip move.

  • RoastBeeph

    Thank you, I’ll be doing homework this weekend. :)

  • tradingmom

    and here was the support I was looking for

  • tradingmom

    hadn’t even posted it and it was already out of date :-(

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long NQ 4205

  • Skynard

    Get FN long here.

  • Skynard

    All in my evil plan:)

  • Skynard

    Awesome dude!

  • Huey

    Ouch! Stopped out for -5pts.

  • tradingmom

    I don’t like what’s going on w/ the mole bubble though…I hope it resolves.

  • Round we go

    this my plan but one must be patient when riding the big waves.

  • Billabong

    Add these authors to your list:
    1. Brett Steenbarger – “Enhancing Trader Performance”
    2. Mark Douglas – “Trading in the Zone”

  • Skynard

    Very small signal with a div in play

  • Billabong

    Michael Covel’s web site at trendfollowing.com has almost 400 podcast interviews. Some with iconic figures like Ed Seykota. If you go to the web site, click on podcast and make sure you scroll all the way down. You’ll find that many of these folks aren’t that much different from you.

  • Skynard

    Time to fill that gap @ SPX 1970

  • Skynard

    Count is full now with 5, a tad early

  • Billabong

    For any new folks out there that would like a good practical guide to trading, Scott Phillips did a four part series (as the daily msg) around 10 Mar 2014. You can find it in Mole’s archives.

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks, my homework list keeps getting bigger but I am very appreciative of the help.

  • Huey

    Awesome thanks! I’ve been going through the archives with that series in the back of my mind but hadn’t found it. It’s also interesting to see the progression of Mole’s thinking.

  • Billabong

    There’s no rush to trade … A train is always pulling into the station. Once you’ve written a trading business plan, established your risk parameters, and have your list of psychological hurdles to overcome, you’ll be well on your way to surviving. First up, clean out beliefs and opinions … price action only … all the rest is BS.

    EDIT: Predictions are also totally useless … might as well watch CNBC.

  • Skynard

    Hanging in there Bro?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Yea still long, havent exited

  • RoastBeeph

    Awesome, this is by far the best trading community I have come upon. I really appreciate it. Hopefully in a few months I am able to go into each trading day with a plan.

  • Billabong

    It’s like nobody wants to hold over the weekend … I’ve watched YM shed almost 200 points in the last hour and ES turn red.

  • Billabong

    I do. Every morning, I spend about 1-2 hours reviewing the previous nights activity and prepping for the day. First thing is to assess how you are doing. If I didn’t sleep well or I’m sick, I restrict my transactions. Also, I review and reset as necessary, my R SL points. During the day, I try to find some way to exercise.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    Are the blue up arrows and red down arrows to be ignored in Zero ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Super Trader and Trade Yourself To Financial Freedom

  • RoastBeeph

    I just ordered the Al Brooks and two Van Tharp books recommended in this thread. Thanks again everyone. :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Oh, thanks two more books to add. I’ll order these as well. Thanks!

  • Edd

    Re read my dog eared copy of Trading in the Zone every other month. Written in mid 90`s his important principles are still just as valid today.

  • Billabong

    Yeah, I also reuse mine for refresher training 1-2 times per year.

  • Billabong

    Keep in mind … these books are the next level up. The basics and then these books … it will flow more smoothly if you don’t try to combine different stages at the same time. After going through the various material, it would be good to come back and ask the right questions. Professional trading is like becoming a surgeon … it takes time, effort, enduring a lot of emotional pain and continuous learning mixed with moments of panic.

  • mugabe

    If you’re looking for Scott’s superb 4-part series, it starts here;

    http://evilspeculator.com/arisen/

    A a good site with interviews with system builders is;

    http://bettersystemtrader.com/

    The interview with Howard Bandy is sobering.

  • RoastBeeph

    Thank you. :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Just checked out the better system trader site, very nice. I have a background in software engineering and have wanted to get into creating trading systems. Once I am happy with myself as a technical trader, my next goal will be building systems. Thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    On trend days YES – on sideways days NO.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    how does one determine if its going to be a trend day or sideways? besides obviously monitoring the tape…

    Im asking if there is a method to determine that off the bat via Zero or what not…

  • Scott Phillips

    You have become a very solid pro over the last few years :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Steenbarger just released a new book, trading psychology 2.0 or something like that.

  • Scott Phillips

    Gabriel was a strong believer in pivot levels, he would relax a stop to just below the nearest pivot level if it was close, or avoid taking a trade if the pivot was within 1 R.

    I tested it over a decent sample size, and could not find any basis at all for pivot point validity.

    It defies logic that some kind of witchcraft formula acts as a magnet for price the following day. Neiderhoffer did a proper analysis and found the same thing.

    I call bullshit

  • ridingwaves

    Fun, dove with a bunch of spinner dolphins about 700 yards off the place I’m renting….Had 2 moms and calves swim with me for about 15 seconds on both sides about 15 ft under…

    lots of bait made for fat and happy dolphins…they stayed in same area for 2 hours, never seen that here…

  • Scott Phillips

    I read the market wizards books every Christmas for motivation for the coming year.

    It’s too easy to think you are expert, when the truth is there are real sharks in the water.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let’s not forget our local resource ๐Ÿ˜‰

    http://evilspeculator.com/tools/favorite_posts/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It never gets old, does it?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you sir. Point made and proven.

  • Billabong

    Thank you! That means a lot coming from you…

  • Billabong

    That is what life is about …. I envy you.

  • Billabong

    No it doesn’t. It’s another one I use for refresher training from time to time…

  • newbfxtrader

    Look where the VIX is at. Trade accordingly with position size. Give your stops more room and trade smaller.

  • Billabong

    I’ll check it out this weekend … BL and I are agreement with you on smaller size and wider stops.

  • satouse

    Mole, don’t know if you seen this already. Fn disgusting.
    http://www.rt.com/news/316568-germany-nurse-eviction-refugees/

  • mugabe

    ‘disgusting`? being given almost a year to move out of rented accommodation?

  • Scott Phillips

    That’s very very tenuous. You would want a few more touches than that to start to think about drawing those lines :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Throw Murphy and Pring away. They suck, and contain information from the 70’s when technical analysis was akin to witchcraft.

    The central position of TA back then was that you could use indicators and trendlines to predict future price action. We now know that to be complete shit. You cannot know the future.

    At each point in time, we know the most likely outcome, with the caveat that a low probability outcome will cause a bigger move in the opposite direction. And nothing really gets better than 65:35 in the real world. Most of the time when we think we know what will probably happen the odds are 60:40.

  • Scott Phillips

    There is no “they”

    Don’t be an idiot

  • Scott Phillips

    Through Van Tharp’s group I have been exposed to quite a few prop desk traders for the big banks and hedge funds. Almost without exception they are cut from the same cloth. A homogenous group of egotistical early 30’s wizards who are very well educated (quite a lot with PhD’s in maths, engineering, physics), extremely smart, and not particularly good traders by objective standards. The compensation structure in their industry encourages them to take risks because if they are down for the year they suffer career consequences if they don’t make it back to breakeven, and they don’t share in the loss if they end up down for the year.

    As human beings I find them likeable, good gregarious company, if a little arrogant like 30 year old kids making a million bux a year (which is more than me) probably have a right to do. Basically they remind me of me when I was younger and successful in another industry.

    Believing in a monster under the bed driving prices at will because “they” want this or “they” want that is both unhelpful to trading and demonstrably untrue.

    We DO know things about institutional traders. They have a bias towards taking risk. They exhibit profound groupthink (one prop desk trader I know for Credit Suisse will not take a trade if it is opposite in direction to the best trader in his group), and get bragging rights for catching the biggest part of the move. There is a strong desire to not steady stack R over the year, but to catch a big move (like USDJPY last year).

    The groupthink tendency is responsible for the illusion that institutions want to drive prices up. It is entirely coincidental.

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t get the first book, its terribly written. The group of 3 books is far better

  • satouse

    It is not the landlord that wanted to give her notice but the mayor that pushed for this so that the town budget saves funds. Since when is it normal that a non party to a contract can terminate such contract. Now a tax paying German citizen is made worse off in order to accommodate a bunch of foreigners that came to Germany so they can profit from their generous social welfare. This reeks of fn communism and I find it disgusting.

  • Scott Phillips

    They didn’t come to profit from their social welfare. They ran for their lives from a human tragedy caused, in large part, by USA meddling in their affairs. If you were born there you would be running too, as fast and as far as you could.

    The tax paying German citizen is not worse off unless she was paying under market rent. In a free market she can just go find another place to live.

  • Scott Phillips

    Trend days (up) are fuelled by the short covering of failed bearish trades. When you see some of the following you start to be suspicious that a trend day is on offer.

    – Breadth is strong from the open
    – TICK remains solidly above the zero mark
    – Opening gaps (up) remain unfilled
    – Technically good looking short setups on the 5min timeframe do not work
    – Series of bars (5 min) where they open at the lows and close at or near the highs
    – Very few overlapping bars or choppy price action
    – The first pullback on any timeframe is very solidly bought
    – pullbacks are shallow and rarely reach a deep EMA like EMA(20)

  • Scott Phillips

    You should not be trading. You need to stop while you build a system.

  • Scott Phillips

    His last book (matrix), when you filter out the hippy crap and bullshit, is the approach to psychological development from his seminars.

    It is very good, and there is nothing in his seminars you can’t get for $20 from the book.

  • Scott Phillips

    Market Wizards (all books), reminiscences of a stock operator, trading in the zone, everything by steenbarger including every blog post he ever wrote. Ed Seykota’s trading tribe FAQ section (and attend trading tribe meetings)

  • Scott Phillips

    If you don’t have a plan with a demonstrable edge, no amount of discipline can save you.

    If you haven’t got skills as a surgeon, starting to cut someone open and saying “it’s ok I’ll just feel the feelings, get my psychology under control, and be disciplined” is not going to help your patient ๐Ÿ˜‰ There are no books on the mental game of racecar driving or surgery for this reason.

    It’s like that old question “who is the sucker in the room?” The sucker in the trading room is the guy without a plan. No matter how smart you are, the second you get into a trade you become a moron. This is true for Mole and myself also.

    Most successful traders find that having a “one size fits all” plan for managing trades removes a lot of the stress from things, especially when you give yourself freedom to bend the rules a little bit.

    An example of this would be that in one of my trading plans I move stop to breakeven at 1.2R and trail a 1R stop at 4R. However, if I saw that price reached 1.1R and was no longer supportive of the trade, I would mark it down as discretion to move stop to breakeven prematurely. Similarly if I saw a strong profitable move to 6R or 7R straight away, I would expect a second leg up, so I might bank 1/4 of the trade profit where I am feeling especially euphoric (banking 1/4 of a winning position when you experience euphoria is part of a sound trading plan and very often marks the geometric top of a move) and wait for a pullback before instituting a 1R trailing stop, to avoid being whipsawed out of a strong trade.

    I log all the instances of discretion and at regular intervals revisit to see how my judgement is. Mostly it is a wash (good judgement and bad even out) but it adds a lot to the experience of trading.

  • mugabe

    Congratulations to the legion of Welsh readers here for the victory over England in the Rugby World Cup-

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s just complete bullshit and exactly the type of relativistic self blame rhetoric that has become commonplace in Western MSM.

    Facts:

    1) She is a born German and her civic rights as a tax paying citizen should be sacrosanct.

    2) She is going to be evicted into one of the toughest rental markets imaginable. Finding a flat in Germany takes months, if not years if you want to find something close to your job. I’m not talking out of my ass, I have lived it.

    3) For that reason it is extremely difficult to evict people – in both Germany and France you can live for months and sometimes years without paying rent. Immigrants and especially illegal immigrants often abuse overly liberal tenant protections.

    4) She is going to replaced with immigrants who are going to be paying nothing – the State is going to pay it. Which means implicitly she’s paying rent the rent of her replacement via (virtually guaranteed) increased taxation. May I also add that many flats are unrecognizable after they have been inhabited by migrants from war torn regions.

    5) The people replacing her have never paid a single cent into the German welfare system but are now being treated better than actual citizens. I can appreciate empathy with refugees but the German state’s principal responsibility is to its actual citizens.

    6) Germany didn’t meddle or cause any human tragedy in the past 70 years. So why do they feel compelled to take on this responsibility? They just bailed out half of Southern Europe and now this? If I was still living there I would be on the way out right now.

    7) Europe can not take on such a flood of economic migrants or will turn into a 2nd and then 3rd world country within one or two generations. Population density in Europe is MUCH higher than that of the U.S. and especially Australia. We literally do not have the space nor the resources.

    8) A country without a border and/or regulated immigration has abandoned its national sovereignty. I encourage you all to actually look up this word and understand its deeper meaning.

    I am not against controlled/organized immigration at all – I have been an immigrant most of my life. Neither am I a racist, otherwise I wouldn’t have moved to the U.S. However I always did it the legal way and found ways to integrate and pay INTO the system, not take OUT of it. After three years in Spain I am nearly fluent in Spanish and I am volunteering here plus I’m supporting the economy. I have never taken one cent from the Spanish purse. And neither have I taken anything out of the U.S. purse – I have been paying into it and still am via corporate taxes.

    Which is why I have been welcomed wherever I go in the world. I don’t expect anything from anyone and I do my best to integrate. I would not dream of ever demanding anything from my host country, on the contrary, I am happy to contribute where I can.

    What is happening in Europe will lead to a reorganization of the German population, the exact consequences of which are very hard to predict. Perhaps it had to happen because deep inside the world never forgave the Germans for WW2 and in the past 70 years have never missed an opportunity to remind the Germans of what they have done (e.g. Hollywood, TV, print – not a week passes without a reminder). I’m not saying that this is a bad thing – quien no conoce su historia esta condenado a repetirla. But there are consequences to a guilting a people on a continuous basis. They either swing to the other extreme (Germany right now) or may do the exact opposite and revert to it (inspired by increasing right extremism all over Europe).

    The younger generations have been raised in a culture that completely rejects anything German while anything foreign/exotic is being embraced as good. The word ‘Selbsthass’ translates as ‘self hate’ and it is rampant among young Germans these day – which is why they increasingly have embraced extreme liberalism/globalism. I cannot blame them really – it’s tough to grow up and realize that Opa Helmut helped gas a few million jews. In my particular case my grandfather was actually French but my step grandpa was fighting for the desert fox down in Africa. He came back a broken man and I never saw him smile once in the years I knew him – he hated himself and made everyone around him miserable.

    In conclusion: This is a massive cluster fuck on many levels. HOWEVER and despite what I have pointed out above I must emphasize that it is the German people who have the final word on all this. Meaning, if a vast majority welcomes unbridled illegal immigration without any oversight, and is willing to accept the possible consequences, then fine – it is their own choice. The average German has a pretty high IQ after all and should be able to realize the long term consequences of their current immigration policies. They also most likely realize that this may endanger the EU as a whole as other nation states may feel rather different about this and decide to extricate themselves from a union which enforces immigration quotas. This is actually already happening – watch closely the election results in Burgenland, Austria – it should be interesting to say the least.

    FYI – when I left Germany back in the early 1990s there were no jobs and there was practically zero assistance for unemployed youths – I recall sending out over 100 resumes and the going joke in Munich back then was that all the taxi drivers had Masters or PhDs. There was no assistance, no free flats, no re-education budgets, nothing. You had to fend for yourself. And although it was tough I came out better the other end. The long term social cost and moral hazard of a nanny state is unsustainable.

    You heard it here first ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Scott Phillips

    You make valid points

  • RonnieH

    Great summary

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Billabong

    I loved my time in Germany during the 1980s

  • Billabong

    US foreign and economic policy is FUBAR. Systems don’t always cross cultural lines … We haven’t learned a FN thing. Here we are breeding like there’s no tomorrow, destroying our home (planet Earth), and worrying about power/money. Without balance we are doomed…

  • Billabong

    It will be interesting to see if there is any follow-through on the Friday daily ES gravestone…..

  • newbfxtrader

    Oh goodness TOS made some changes. Hope they didnt break anything….

  • Billabong

    Some changes!!!! … The changes are screwing with the way I scan my charts from the fonts to colours and layout. Change for the sake of change…

  • newbfxtrader

    Does look better. I just need the buy and sell buttons to work well :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Futures looking very weak since Friday close.

  • Billabong

    I’ll get used to the new layout … And the real time price nearer to the H/L/C prices is better.

  • Billabong

    The evening session is the time to listen to Ed Seykota’s Whipsaw song …

  • RoastBeeph

    Thanks, I have been getting very similar feed back from other posters here. Interesting, and given the success of the people here, easy to believe. I started reading Van Tharp this weekend (Trade your Way to Financial Freedom).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh crap…

  • RoastBeeph

    Does everyone at evilspeculator trade at/with thinkorswim platform? Weren’t they acquired by ameritrade?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I still have an account with them. They used to be awesome before TDA took over.

  • RoastBeeph

    I used to trade with TOS too, thought their charting and trade placement system was oustanding. I am with IB right now due to the low trading fees but their charting is really pretty awful and ugly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like the Zero still works – pheewww…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Better spreads on IB though especially on the forex side.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That country doesn’t exist anymore.

  • Billabong

    True … West Germany absorbed East Germany … talk about combining two different cultures.

  • Billabong

    Some of us trade equities…

  • RoastBeeph

    I remember the fees with thinkorswim were pretty comparable to IB. Have the fees changed since Ameritrade bought them?

  • Scott Phillips

    The KEY with trend days is early recognition. Any time you see a trend day counter trend setup that looks good you start to think about waiting for it to enter and then going with the trend.

    At the very least you want to get long (for an up trend day) a small position at the start of the day and hold until close.

    The odds of a trend day markedly increase when you have a very low range day the day before. Also at inflection points where short covering or long covering rallys can start.

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t believe the hype. There are 5, maybe 6 legit professionals here posting regularly.

  • Scott Phillips

    and he lives near me at the beach. Have to look him up

  • Scott Phillips

    Again, this is erroneous thinking that needs to be addressed. There is ABSOLUTELY, CATEGORICALLY NO DEFINITELY with markets. Every new bar of price action potentially changes the whole picture. Your job as a trader is to stay alive to the ever changing flow of information in the now moment, updating probabilities in real time.

    Example, if the bears fumble the ball on a nice technical short setup today, then they will have to cover. Dip buying sideline bulls could jump in and cause an even greater short covering rally. There is no telling how far things can go, since it relies on complicated and ever changing factors.

    The best you can say right now, is that bears have the edge, but not by a clear margin, and that we are in a higher volatility environment where after hour squeezes and stop runs are the new normal.

  • Billabong

    I don’t know. It probably depends on what price you negotiate. My commission hasn’t changed.

  • Scott Phillips

    Fees are irrelevant, its the spreads that fuck you

  • hellbent

    Ninjatrader 8 is well worth a look. I thought 7 was awful but persevered only because 8 was on its way. Been using for a week or so now and I’m loving it.

  • Skynard

    Still long for gap fill, decided to hold.

  • Skynard

    Short fr 24.5, will be long again at 15

  • hellbent

    I reckon its got steam…

  • hellbent

    AUDNZD gap filled nicely. Signs of a reversal kicking in hrly

  • Skynard

    Running stops above 25, now run to 15 and long again

  • hellbent

    Ahead of the game as usual :)

  • Skynard

    Love trading those w3’s, they rock and always count nicely.

  • hellbent

    I’m only looking at price action and momentum at present. Hrly and 5min for the most part. Your calls are pretty sharp though so I might have to look into the waves at some stage. LBR rates Wolf Waves and she’s no monkey :)

  • Skynard

    That was a 3, 4 down and 5 finished around 30. Time to move down. Very easy to follew, get the meat of the move and wait for the retrace now.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    good trade .. keep up the good work !

  • Skynard

    +2 /ES @ 2015

  • Skynard

    Another 3, out at 1920

  • Skynard

    Out @ 16.25, L @ 13

  • Scott Phillips

    7 is truly awful

  • Scott Phillips

    And many of the “greats” believed in things from the prehistory of trading, before computerised back testing was feasible, and before the internet outed scammers to some extent.

    TA from back in the day is mostly complete shit

  • Scott Phillips

    There is mostly more to be learned from losing than winning. This is true from trading as in real life.

    I honestly didn’t learn a lot making my first million when I was 21 years old. I learned a lot when at age 31 I found myself back in prison again with my future looking bleak indeed.

  • hellbent

    Anyone into boats? This Kiwi version of a Chesapeake Skipjack needs a new owner…

  • Skynard

    5 min bear flag, back to short

  • hellbent

    Anyone else got a crazy dead spot in CQG data? I’m missing about 4hrs on all instruments today. Can’t reload it or download it either.

  • RonnieH

    Thanks very informative

  • fearful_syymmetry

    Not sure if this might be related. The CME Group has a new MDP 3.0 protocol and has required all data vendors to migrate to it by October 2015. The protocol is designed to bundle trades that were previously reported individually. Some vendors are making work-arounds to “un-unbundle” this input. Spread Leg trades will not be reported by the CME Group in the same fashion so fewer trades may appear.

  • hellbent

    Hmm, bit late in the day for me to tackle this one. Data files show gaps between 1645 and 2127. Weird.

  • Billabong

    GC falling back to rising 25 EMA (1127). Support / resistance lines @ 1100-1150.

  • Billabong

    Would anyone here be impacted by a complete Glencore implosion?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NYFed’s Dudley Hilsenrath: “My expectation is we probably will raise interest rates later this year”

  • Billabong

    Crying wolf again…

  • Skynard

    Picked up some /PL on the new low

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Got stopped out last night on the /NQ long from Friday afternoon

  • tradingmom

    A chart to start the week…SPX 15 min

  • Skynard

    Rut Roe

  • Skynard

    New low coming

  • Scott Phillips

    The odds now favor exactly that

  • Scott Phillips

    Its interesting the differing world views on immigration :-)

    In Australia, we have taken successive waves of sorry ass refugees, from DRC, Lebanon, Vietnam, Bosnia and Serbia… it has been an unqualified success. The children of those broke ass refugees are beyond patriotic, they are more Aussie than the rest of us. They have contributed to our society disproportionately.

    And in Europe you have had the opposite experience, refugees haven’t assimilated, they have consumed scarce resources and disrupted society.

  • Scott Phillips

    Super trader is the one to start with :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ) ( ) (
    ( /( ( ( ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    )()) ( )))( ‘ (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    ((_) ) ((_)() ) /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    _((_)((_) _(())_)() (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | | || __| ((_)/ / | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | .` || _| // / | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_|_||___| _/_/ |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

  • Skynard

    Looking for SPX 1900 for now

  • RoastBeeph

    I started reading Supertrader this evening. I only could circle 4 of the 15 items in his pre-quiz. :) I am trading a very small portion of my account until I get up to speed. I know I am not disciplined at this point.