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Let’s Short This Bitch
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Let’s Short This Bitch

by The MoleFebruary 2, 2012

When I fell out of bed today I looked at the tape and had sort of an epiphany. We now have ourselves a kick ass shorting opportunity via a bonafide Scott’s Retest Variation Sell setup. I’m going to make this a freebie to get the rest of you retail rats a taste of how we roll here at Evil Speculator:

Exhibit A is my volume profile on the spoos which shows us no volume participation at all just a few handles above. The tape simply has not much opportunity to run here.

Exhibit B are my Net-Lines on the spoos – the hourly is just about to run into resistance and the daily is soon going to bump its head into a NLBL at 1329.75 – the recent highs. The closer we get to that on little participation (just watch the tiny signal range on the Zero Lite) the better our benefit/risk ratio.

Let’s also take a peek at the AUD/JPY – similar picture but not as extreme. Frankly this thing could run a bit higher on the daily side. However, that does not mean the spoos or the SPX are going to follow suit. Let’s also note that equities have been leading the currency side here, usually a bad sign (for equities).

I already mentioned that the signal range on the Zero Lite has been tiny – I’m seeing almost no participation/momentum strength here. Also remember Sentimentrader’s hedging volume chart I posted yesterday.

This morning Volar posted his RYDEX EFT ratio chart again and the boat seems tilted mightily to one side here. And I have an inkling the sharks are already circling… oh boy…

HOWEVER, despite all this the prevailing medium term trend has been strong and that only gives us a roughly 50/50 chance for a reversal here. Nevertheless (and I can just speak from prior experience – Volar can you quant this?) IF we get a reversal here the odds of it being relatively strong are rather high – I would ‘guesstimate’ it at near 75%. Which means we are looking at a low odds high reward RTV sell setup right here and right now.

So this is what I’m going to do. VIX is relatively low right now and barely scraping 20. Which means OTM options are looking mighty juicy and (if we drop) would benefit nicely from exploding vega:

Here’s an example – obviously you want to be ITM when you close them out, so pick whatever suits you best. I think there’s a decent chance we could drop into SPX 1250 and even if I’m not ITM by then vega is going to boost those premiums just nicely.

Again, and let me play broken record here: This is a low probability high yield setup. But it’s cheap – you have a stop just a few handles away (as I’m typing this the spoos are hanging around 1223, roughly 1227 on the SPX). VIX is low and thus premiums are very affordable. Set your stop a few ticks above the recent high at 1229.75 (you can do that in ThinkOrSwim on a SPY option – research it) and then forget about the trade. Most likely we’ll get our asses stopped out but if we not then it should be madly profitable. Worth a crap shoot with a handful of OTM SPY (or SPX) puts with a stop very nearby. If stopped out our loss should be minimal, assuming of course you stick with SPY, SPX, or any other high volume options, which means your b/a spread is reasonable.

Here’s one quick reminder for my intrepid subs:

[amprotect=nonmember]
More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Our USD/JPY setup is exactly where we want it right now. Not a very evolved floor pattern just yet but we do have an inside candle on the daily right now. May change but if we get a pertinent close then you know what to do.

[/amprotect]
Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    I’m in!

  • Joe_Jones

    This bear is on the bus.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I guess we just got in there in time 😉

  • Anonymous

    When my put volume went from 5k to 50k in a matter of minutes it was hard to resist:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    apparently, the several of you together make up a hedge fund equivalent.
    okay, who has the deep pockets?  fess up!

    (I can see some guy with a couple hundred mill lurking on this board, saying WTH, “let’s do it”)

  • Kudos

    I added more puts to bring me to delta negative, even if its just for a small pullback, I don’t ignore volume holes when mole points them out, especially in combination with RTV sells. I have learned my lesson

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    I have been camping on the back of the bus for some time now, keeping the seats warm for the stainless steel rats. Now, can somebody please cut those damn park brake cables? 😉

  • Anonymous

    mmmm Dip

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I guess a lot of people read Evil Speculator – hehehe :-)

  • Anonymous

    ‘The volume hole’ – surely if price/activity hasnt yet gone somewhere, then there is bound to be a hole – doesnt mean price/volume cant go there if its inclined to go there?

    Before the big bang, there was nothing, but bang went everywhere?

  • Anonymous

    Div on 5 min

  • Kudos

    been waiting for a +2 or -2 signal for a long time

  • Kudos

    got our confirmation here. TY bear good luck troll

  • bshah

    funny right, that when mkt wants to go down, BB and team works on keeping the floor, but when it’s flying high on drugs, ahh.. who cares.. what a control here.

  • EvilTrader

    Long fuckers are deserving at least a bitchslap  from hardcore bears.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Slow here today – anyone left trading?

  • Anonymous

     watching closely, short with close stops

  • Wave_Surfer

    I am just hanging out at the back of the bear bus with my OTM puts.

  • Anonymous

     missing data on 5mZL?  (not helpful right now)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, there was a little gap but it’s back now. Talk to TOS – those guys need to fix their data signals.

  • Anonymous

    exactly. I have contacted them at least 5 times past couple of months about fixing their tick data as well, it’s corrupted in overnight time frames in many futures. 

  • Anonymous

    watching /SI today/tonight due to its’s sideways correction and the 2 hard drops this week

  • Anonymous

    Couldn’t even make VWAP:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Still pushing for it…

  • Anonymous

    Added to short @ VWAP

  • Anonymous

    Sorry for not being around.  Had to go withdraw my life savings so that I can short this baby! 😉

  • bshah

    is it ‘may day…’ scenario or will it be “mole day” ..?
    let’s go knock 12500 … that’d be fun…

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the post.  I’m in and monitoring – seasonality seals the deal in my view.  February wants to go down even without all the reasons summarized in this post.  Certainly not sold on the “it’s 2008 all over again” thesis of the perma bears, but I think the case is pretty solid for a reasonable re-set over the coming short while.  Got March SPY 132 puts as my watching position.  If it doesn’t start to move in the right direction soon, can move on without any material damage.

  • Fibz

    oil seems way oversold.

  • Anonymous

    need to stick a banderilla in the financials, it’s one of the legs holding up this heifer

  • Anonymous

    couldn’t resist adding:  VWAP test without zero following?  Denied.  

  • Anonymous

    yeah on the hourly chart, inside bar failed to continue,
    now up a bit

  • bshah

    what’s keeping this shit up?

  • Anonymous

    By the way, excellent post, mole.  Concise, reasoned approach.  You just aren’t going to get any where else this kind of direct, unique, & balanced view of what’s happening in the markets.  Baseball analogy: Fearless leads off.  Next in the line up are CS with Vol on deck.  mole hitting clean up.  AMC & the Gerbil in the bullpen.  Batters up!

  • Anonymous

    expectations.

  • Joe_Jones

    What about Volar?

  • Anonymous

    Ooh moles on the bear bus! Glad you could join boss!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Since early today when you were MIA. So far so good…

  • Anonymous

    Vol=Volar not volatility maybe?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, if we push higher here into the close I am going to use it to add a few positions – until of course we breach 1329.75, this would invalidate the RTVS setup. Hope everyone is clear on that.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Volar does not trade bacon futures.
    http://www.me-me-me.tv/images/2009/04/hairy-pig.jpg 
    who says first impressions don’t stick!?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Volar strictly sticks to a kosher symbol diet.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..and a dash of Viagra.

    L*rdie, images of them stacking up the short positions.  (shudder)

  • Anonymous

    Yep. Sounds like a plan.

  • Anonymous

    I’m shorting today also

  • bshah

    now we are talking.. UNITED WE STAND … 2 MAR SPY 137 PUTS, FEW QID FEB 37 CALLS.. AND 1 APPL FEB PUT … Good enough boss, or shall I put more..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We got the coveted Convict’s seal of approval – awesome :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    United we may fall but look – it’s a good setup. There are never guarantees of success but we do what traders do – we evaluate the odds and then take on a position. If it fails we have very very limited downside here. If you play options you can use the AUD/JPY and the spoos to start hedging overnight if things pull the wrong way.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Fix bayonets!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ciq9ts02ci4 

    Market close < 30min

  • Joe_Jones

    I am siding with the Germans on that one. Stupid frogs!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no nationality intended.
    just the theme.

    we all know the captain obvious line is the trench.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Vol /= volitility (little ‘l’)
    Vol == Volar (CAPITAL ‘L’!!!)

  • Anonymous

    Lets not forget: “Markets await U.S. figures on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment for January due
    out early Friday” 8:30am EST… Expecting stop run shenanigans & bot induced whipsaw.

  • Joe_Jones

    True. We need a “news” event to trigger a drop.

  • Anonymous

     …if you think it will matter…

  • Joe_Jones

    CNBC and Bloomberg morons have to justify their jobs

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was a brilliant movie btw – anyone signing up for war should watch this. Which is what really gets me about today’s fighting forces in the West. You lose three soldiers and it makes the headline news. Back in the days we lost tens of thousands – in one battle! No wonder we are being considered soft and spoiled by potential enemies.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There were no winners in that war unfortunately. And it lead to WW2 – that particular generation knew the meaning of the words sacrifice and hardship. Think about those kids next time you stand in line at Starbucks to buy your $4 latte and are checking your emails on your iPhone…

  • Joe_Jones

    Yes war is fucked up. If I have to pick a side though I will go with the one with the bigger gun, regardless of nationality.

  • Joe_Jones

    All aboard!!!

  • Anonymous

    YES!!

  • Anonymous

    WooHoo! Liking these longer range candles:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • Anonymous

    If I had to guess, I’d say Volar’s name is derived from Nassim Taleb’s story about an options trader who would sing “volare” every time the market would panic. *
    http://books.google.com/books?id=-5-OldaTjVQC&pg=PA147&lpg=PA147&dq=volare+taleb+nassim&source=bl&ots=LZ7OSizeWl&sig=3ZMFSNS91NWzCSTSF1ar6SaDfAI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=R_oqT4iqCOmiiQKumcTeCg&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBA#v=onepage&q&f=false 

    *insert joke about pigs flying here.

  • Galazkiewicz

    RTV Sell and Inside Period set-ups on the same candle.  Good short opportunity.  Appears to still qualify as a Retest today, as it’s 5 bars from the recent high.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/82e05d65-c754-4c37-9caf-e86e70a08288/2012-02-02_1604.png
    Paging Rightside_ot_trade. Sorry for the super delay I’ve been at the park nearly all day with the little guy. BTW I think we have found the range,  dashed line middle of red oval and dashed line middle of yellow oval. I think market will grab both set of orders before down move starts.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very nice find, Tooncez!!

  • http://twitter.com/ActiveTrader ActiveTrader

    I could see a drop here or a “breakout” and then reverse and go lower like last Wednesday. I am leaning a towards a fake “breakout” to suck in the late bulls and to get the weak handed bears to cover before the real reversal takes place. Why would it be surprising? I am expecting reversal around February 9. Like the saying goes, “the market is there to screw the maximum number of people.”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I hope so!! :-)

  • Anonymous

    Day at the park was the right choice today.
    I thought you use the middle, just confirming.
    Muchos gracias

  • Fibz

    Speaking of which, War Horse has some great WW1 war scenes in it.

  • http://twitter.com/ActiveTrader ActiveTrader

     I hope so too, we need some volatility back in this grind fest they call a market. This crap is for the birds :-)

  • http://mugabe.myopenid.com/ mugabe

    I’ve had 3 March SPY 130 puts for about a week now, though as a hedge against long positions that I don’t want to sell. Mainly based on the highest daily RSI on SPY for 10 months and the extended distance from the 50 day ma. Very basic way of looking at thnigs for you boyz, but you do what you can. I would be suprised if it doesn’t show a gain at some point before expiry.

  • Anonymous

    Went short /GC again, what a pig!

  • Anonymous

    You like getting spanked. Come on confess!

  • Anonymous

    Just got short the aussie market in a massive way

  • Anonymous

    How about the fact that the RUT and the NASDAQ both continue to push to new highs?  Is this not concerning for the bearish case?

  • Anonymous

    Nice!

  • Anonymous

    Is it correlated to the US markets? Same sell setup?

  • Anonymous

    LOL! Glutton

  • Anonymous

    You cant say I didnt warn you not to short gold!

  • Anonymous

    Yeah man. One day I want to use words like “massive” or “truckloads” or something…..

  • Anonymous

    Similar to SPX, gold looks to have failed the 1768 high. Stop just above it:)

  • Anonymous

    Your at the right place!

  • Anonymous

    So has treasuries for that matter.

  • EvilTrader

    McClellan oscillator has negative divergence with SPY.

    Just another top signal.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p92413445932 

  • Anonymous

    Nice turn!

  • Anonymous

    aud/jpy looks like it is performing a nice downturn here.  

  • Anonymous

    That alert is good, moved quickly in the right direction

  • Fibz

    youth unemployment in europe

    http://p.twimg.com/AkdG9d2CMAA1pjn.jpg

  • Anonymous

    Nice graph. Ok, im backing up my put-truck right now!
    http://i1.treklens.com/photos/19077/donkiekar.jpg

  • Anonymous

    Gives you a nice warm fuzzy feeling that chart doesnt it…

  • Fibz

    spain would probably be a good place to start my international tar & feather business.

  • Anonymous

    How about molotov cocktails? Good business?

  • Anonymous

    Booyah! Go baby go. Nice short indeed, cover yourself a few points above 4300 and its a nice setup.

  • Anonymous

    May be time for Bucky as well:)

  • Anonymous

    been days waiting for it to bounce.

  • Anonymous

    Damn! Think you guys might have something:) When you talk about feeling the market I’ve paid close attention to how the market reacted today on such low volatility.

  • Anonymous

    And another thing! Nice place for a bounce:)

  • Joe_Jones

    great chart

  • Anonymous

    Actually the opposite. A sign of a healthy market is INDU, SPX and COMPQ all making new highs, together.

    One of the classic signs of a market ending is that a high beta market makes new highs, while the broader indexes do not. This is the subject of a mountain of classic TA work by Charles Dow (first editor of wall st journal) he used $util, and $tran against $indu.

    Take a look at an old chart of the ultimate 07 peak. You see $compq makes a fresh high one week after $indu tops, unconfirmed. That was the ultimate peak.

    Take a look at silver and gold recently at the tops… same thing.

    This behaviour happens again and again around turning points. Its very very bearish.

  • Anonymous

    correct, wait for the trigger :)

  • Anonymous

    This is correct, its a insider insider joke

  • Anonymous

    Hey Rats, this is about to get interesting!
    In addition to Mole FX pair above, do not forget USD/CAD. It has been reported quite a few times by Mole but never lifted off… yet.

    The price doesn’t tend to embedded in the BB, more usually acts as a launch pad. Keep an eye on that one as well, it thends to act as a good harbinger for other moves in currencies. This is more empiric observation. Where correlations quick in, Loonie will often in retrospective have been a first mover. Getting long myself right her right now. Good trade, good odds, stop just below BBs.

    http://screencast.com/t/PwGT2cvZI

  • Anonymous

    P.S. this is an  8 hours bar chart, a bit more reliable than the daily which doesn’t show such subtleties

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Saw this the other day – frankly it’s a travesty. A whole generation of young Europeans are being led down by corrupt and self indulgent Eurocrats. Similar story as over here in the United States but it’s having a bigger impact as the social system over there is more fragile.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for that Scott, that’s exactly the kind of substantive stuff I like to absorb.  I’m a bit familiar with Dow theory with respect to the $indu compared to the transports, but I guess it makes sense to apply it to the broad market vs. the betas as well. 

    Well I guess the ducks are lined up pretty good, let’s see if price follows…

  • Anonymous

    Copper running up yet again. I assume that Europe will also run things up into the NFP report, as usual.

  • Anonymous

    Its no guarantee

  • Anonymous

    Market waiting for Europe.

  • Anonymous

    Lost the trend line and back testing or fake-out.

  • http://www.investingcontrarian.com fresbee

    Lovely charts. The crash is coming from fnn24
    http://fnn24.com/?p=48061 

  • Anonymous

    usd/cad looks on the move….

  • Anonymous

    Noticed that.

  • Anonymous

    is your chart from CPT?

  • Anonymous

    Perking up rather well, been watching that basing past week

  • Anonymous

    And there’s the crap

  • Anonymous

    mmm interesting.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/fca7804f-cae3-4618-9cd2-102e38ba7e81/2012-02-03_0841.png
    it is above the dashed line. Meaning that shorting right now is not prudent. especially so if it stays above dashed line. However, if it were to fall back below game is back on.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Spears/100000424557856 David Spears

    Now it’s time to short this bitch! Market decided to buy now, ask questions later.

  • Anonymous

    As I said right now that would not be prudent and very premature. Wait for the prey to come to you.

  • Fearless

    Everything is still firmly above the daily acceleration line. Fight the trend? Pas moi.

  • Anonymous

    DX on the move against all. now that the spurt of 8h30 is gone and stop runned, let”s see if there is any stamina left. DX & GC currently say no to spoos…

  • Anonymous

    Figure that one out!

  • Galazkiewicz

    Thanks for confirming and advising to wait for the trigger.  Per your most recent post, we should get the terminal velocity questioned answered today.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Spears/100000424557856 David Spears

    It’s ok, I shorted right at the top, SL is my entry so I get a free trade :)

  • Anonymous

    Tuesday Feb 7th has a Mercury Combust Aspect, also a Full Moon  very nice Astrological Signature for a Market turn.  I’m waiting til Monday for the most part though will make a small short entry today.

  • Galazkiewicz

    NFP days typically gap up and trend down or vice versa.  Scott’s question about whether enough bulls have entered the market to hit terminal velocity should be answered today.  Anecdotally, several clients that have wanted nothing to do with equities the last four months can’t get back in fast enough right now.  We are fully discretionaly here, so they’ve had to direct me not to invest their cash. Generally, these are my contrarian clients that are always on the wrong side of the market.

    Regardless, this should be the day we get some clarity.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Ironically we probably get the “correction” now that everyone was looking for previously…but likely that’s all it will be ..a correction..
    This move up screws bears…and then a nice correction to shake out the late bulls..!!

  • Anonymous

    Dollar is pointing up and so are equities. I wonder which side will win.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Dollar & S&P have gone up significantly for a day or two  in tandem 

  • Anonymous

    Baseball bat sales we’re up quite a bit last summer in England. At some point different models occupied the first ten or so spots on Amazon.co.uk’s ‘popular products’ charts.

  • Galazkiewicz

    This should be filed in the worthless bullshit category, but FWIW a PM we know at a very large fixed income fund just completed three days of meetings with Fed Govenors.  No surprise, but they are hell bent on implementing QE3.  They feel housing still needs more support and continue to be very worried about Europe. They simply are waiting for a crack in the door to bust through.  The fundamental data is making it tough on them, but it should happen when the data begins to disappoint.  Now, this has been telegraphed by the Fed.  But, it now appears to be a foregone conclusion.

  • Carl V

    All I can say here is that ES and YM show double or triple divergence on a lot of volume indicators in daily, 240min, 60min and lower. And now, in both 60 and 240min, the prices touch or exceed the BB 100 and 25…and last thing: anb intraday gap is VERY rare for globex stock indexes; and the least we can say is that this gap didn’t occur at the befinning of a up move. This is an exhaustion gap and I would short anytime the gap is close and broken to the downside. DX up and broke descending trendline (daily and 240min) and GC/SI down. Who is wrong here??

  • Anonymous

    Look to copper for the answer.

  • Anonymous

    short has been triggered at 1.0750 setting stop at .0780 take profit at .0700 then I will re enter if the opputritny presents itself again at .0650

  • Anonymous

    FWIW there is still an unfilled MEJT target of  SPX 1344 from July 25

  • Anonymous

     does 1341 count?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AUD/JPY T for the 6th.
    when a T refuses and reverses, flip direction, but don’t change T time

    http://i42.tinypic.com/sd2nmw.png
    -GG

  • Anonymous

    Looks like it is bisecting the Right half of the T into a smaller T . . .

    Projecting to top at the end of the original T

  • Anonymous

    5 period average w/ 20 sma
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=23452 
    It’s amazing what Google can pull up – Evil Speculator Fearless acceleration line.

  • Fibz

    positive NFPs are bullish for the dollar…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes.  small T’s crop up in counter moves.
    not always.

  • Anonymous

    Probably, but I’m looking at this from a purely technical POV.
    The the moment EUR/USD is down and AUD/JPY is up. Either one of them has to give or we’re experiencing a complete breakdown of correlations. The latter would in fact be quite interesting. Maybe we should look for past situations where correlations broke down and see what happened there.

  • Anonymous

    Fractals Fractals everywhere

    Even in my girlfriends

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    me too!

    this one is labeled “Tea time”
    http://calitreview.com/images/metzinger_tea_time.jpg 

  • Anonymous

    Got to Run

    i’m looking for An AAPL top near 466 that is the 166.8% retrace level of the Oct Nov sell off.  I’ll buy some puts in that area

  • Anonymous

    Cool !

  • Anonymous

    nice boobs

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If AUD/JPY tops on the 6th.
    I will be adding to my short position. [SDS]

    http://i43.tinypic.com/24462va.png 

  • Fibz

    hard to sell stuff today. AON orders at bid sitting open for a long time.

  • Anonymous

     No

  • Anonymous

    Hourly ZL is not in agreement it seems. Added short

  • jigdaddy

    anybody know how to set the daily acceleration line in TOS?

  • jigdaddy

    ignore my comment above, it was already answered. thanks!

  • EvilTrader

    Am i wrong or SPY just made new multiple years high @134.4 ??

  • Kudos

    IIRC fearless said it was O+H+L+C/5 but I think TOS only has O+H+L+C/4, which is what I have been using. I also think the setting is not available in prophet, just the regular chart

  • jigdaddy

    thanks, are you usings exponential for the 5 period or SMA? and then are you putting a 20 SMA as well on the chart? or is there a way to combine both?

  • Anonymous

    I see May 2, 2011 intraday high of 137.60. closed 136.12

  • tradem4alpha

     I will be entering a small (very small) short position on the close, based on a lot of things (Volar’ charts show that there is a lot of frothiness in the markets), but other than this things are pointing north for the moment:
    1) IWM clearly outperforming SPY (today, yesterday etc);
    2) IWM is above the bolinger on the daily; I tested a strategy in ninjatrader on the RUT (on the daily chart: sell short if it closes above the bolinger, cover the day it closes below) and the results are not pretty for the bears: a loss of -25% starting from 1995. In other words, it gets embedded. Here are the graphs: http://www.screencast.com/users/Mirci/folders/Default/media/ec2457dc-9cda-4a45-b59a-d0ad5fafe12f (as can be seen a lot of the loss is because of the bull market 1995-2000, but the strategy still shows a loss from 2005-2012); http://www.screencast.com/users/Mirci/folders/Default/media/d998aaf1-8c7d-494d-99f3-c895714ba669.

  • Anonymous

    Looks like we’re right in the volume hole.  Wonder what lurks above?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • EvilTrader

    you are right, thx.

    Just read this from a reliable source:
    ‘”FTAlertpros are selling big time into this. we can still test the highs but liquidity is being taken out “