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Light At The End Of The Tunnel
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Light At The End Of The Tunnel

by The MoleMay 10, 2009

The bulls certainly have been on a roll lately and predictably the financial media spin machine has quickly kicked into high gear. Headlines suggesting the worst may be over abound and the collective sentiment among investors appears to be that there is light at the end of the tunnel. The DSI hit a whopping 85% on Friday – just a few points below it’s October 2007 high. So I guess the good times are back and our economic problems are finally behind us – Big Ben did the impossible and simply printed us out of a deep recession. Ladies and leeches – I must agree – there is a very bright light and I actually have a snapshot of it:

Oooops. That’s right – it’s the old 4 express subway – and it’s heading straight towards Wall Street. And once it arrives the bulls won’t know what just hit them.

At the end of February the bears were getting a bit tired – after a 58% drop in merely 515 days there wasn’t too much honey left to be squeezed out of the market. It’s not that the economy had magically recovered over night but bears have a good sense of seasonality and it was also time to rest up for salmon season. Besides, there was a traditionally stronger earning season ahead, as were various accompanying signs that it was time to retire for hibernation. The bulls pretty much had capitulated and the SPX was dropping but on waning momentum. The DSI was at 2% and there simply wasn’t a bull left on Wall Street or anywhere else on the planet where equities were being traded. The time was ripe for a correction – and boy – did we get one of those.

Since then the bear have been patiently living off their fat deposits, slowing down their hear beats to a bare minimum, curled in their cozy caves, and waiting for the right moment to arrive. As the prevailing mood is turning increasingly optimistic many are however starting to lick their chops as they recognize a bear market rally when they see one. So, let’s take a peek:

Only two months ago I myself predicted a ferocious Primary degree correction but I am still stunned looking at this chart. The NASDAQ has now logged nine consecutive weeks to the upside and frankly I don’t remember the last time this has ever happened. I’m sure 2sweeties has some statistics on that and I hope he’ll chime in here. In the interim I have taken the liberty to count all consecutive down weeks since the onset of Cycle wave c and the maximum I see is six weeks. Last week I postulated that a ninth up week would be statistically remote however not impossible – reminding everyone of the inherent nature of bear market rallies. Unfortunately the bulls proved me right and we now find ourselves at a new extreme. Where we go from here of course is the Million Deutschmark question.

If we look a bit closer however we are starting to see cracks in the dam as the recently high flying and leading NDX (here represented by the Cubes) is now clearly lagging the blue chips (Spiders on the left). Whether or not this is a first sign of an impending meaningful correction remains to be seen but in my mind the probabilities are starting to point that way. Let’s count some waves:

On Thursday I suggested that we might either drop lower into (X) or push up once more to complete a fifth wave. The bulls didn’t disappoint and presented us with another opportunity to load up on short positions. We are now facing three major possibilities:

Soilent Black: We completed Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) and are now pushing into A of (X). The inflection point for this scenario is the 900 – 905 mark. There is a nice little upwards diagonal that recently developed, which also happens to mirror a lower diagonal that defines the lows of a recent running triangle (psalm 50:1-43 of our bible) and which concluded Intermediate (B). Of course 900 also is a psychological line of defense for the bulls as it was just recently conquered – if that is relinquished I expect things to accelerate to the downside quickly.

Soilent Orange: Very similar to Black but we are completing Minor 5 at the rising diagonal trend line that has defined and supported this Primary wave since early March. Due to time shift the inflection point range is between 900 and 910. A very plausible scenario if you think about it. We are now embarking into OPEX week and I am seeing a lot of open interest in SPY and QQQQ puts – what would make more sense to those MMs than to squeeze some weak hands just a bit more? This is exactly how blow off tops happen – and although I’m positioned to the downside it’s a possibility I need to consider.

Soilent Green: The WTF scenario. We still get a little dip to the downside but it’s only a Minor 2 degree correction after which we probably rally towards 1000 on the SPX. I do have some doubts about this one but wanted to throw it out to you rats anyway. Of course we probably wouldn’t count three more consective up weeks as things are starting to look pretty tired. But we might finish lower this week and then snap back to the upside the following.

Unfortunately at this stage of the Intermediate/Primary degree wave count it’s extremely difficult to predict how this Primary degree correction (i.e. Primary {2} of Cycle wave c) will play out exactly. What I do know is that many bears are starting to be a bit restless. They look at the past nine weeks and are convinced that we couldn’t possibly push any higher. Well – maybe not right now – but we could easily get a few weeks to the downside after which the bulls could drive the tape back to 900, 1000, and maybe even further. I know I start to sound like a broken record, but let’s not forget that we have only spent 56 days in Primary {2}, which would only be 10.8% of Primary {1}. And yes, within that short of a time we have recaptured less than 38.2% of the preceding decline but on a longer term perspective I believe we need to give this thing a lot more time. Personally I would feel better if we at least spend 121 days (23.6% of 515) or even 197 days (38.2% of 515) in Primary {2}. The former would get us to July 8th and the latter to September 22nd. Now these are highly speculative assumptions as the time dimension is not very well defined in traditional EWT. But it’s something to work with and good to bear in mind before pulling the trigger on a large amount of short positions. We often see what we want to see and I’m sure after nine consecutive weeks to the upside many bears want to see a large scale correction. We might get one – but the longer term odds are still with the bulls for several months to come.

Last weekend I suggested that the Bullish Percent Index (a longer term indicator) could easily push even higher, despite its recent overbought readings. Well, we now find ourselves at the 75 mark – the last time we were at that level was in June of 2007 – or the ‘good old days’ as the bulltarts would call it. Can we push even higher. For sure – remember that extremes go both ways in secular bear markets. However, having said that – it seems obvious that at least an intermediate drop is plausible.

I keep scratching my head over the pattern in the McClellan – this is probably the cleanest triangle I’ve ever seen on this thing. Clearly we should be heading higher but maybe this is in fact another representation of a waning trend to the upside. Observe how the McClellan started to weave up ahead of the March 9th 666.79 low.

We are back at square one with your VIX sell signal. Unfortunately we didn’t a higher close on Friday – and even worse – we didn’t drop below the BB line either – so, we’re actually at square zero.  Better luck next time but thus far – no confirmation. Which adds to my ominous feeling regarding OPEX weeks. On the up side however I’m sure that Fujisan has plenty of cool calendars for us to play with 🙂

The old buck has continued its downward spiral and this is starting to look like an a-b-c correction. I have shifted the old wave A fibonacci lines to line up with the onset of what I think is developing into C. Accordingly equality should be reached around the 80 mark. What worries me is that this is quite a few days off and gives additional credence to a possible scenario in which we could see either sideways or further upside tape in equities until the conclusion of OPEX week.

Finally, my old nemesis – Gold. I am still holding those put butterflies but only because it’s not worth selling them anymore. We did bounce back at that red diagonal on the chart but Gold has not made any efforts to retreat back underneath the 900 mark. Of course the cascading Dollar has not helped in the very least. At this stage I must switch my outlook to neutral for two reasons: First I am not confident enough in my count to play the long side here plus we are way too high for me to start going long. And second Gold has been way too frustrating for option traders as of late – and I must say that there are easier ways to make a profit and I’m sick of looking at these mind numbing gyrations. Sometimes is best to step away from a particular sector and focus one’s attention where the pickings are easier. Admittedly equities are not exactly easy either but even so – I rather put up with one difficult count instead of two 😉

On Friday watched a very cool video over at INO on ‘The Art of Morphing‘ by Ron Ianieri, which really blew my mind. This is great material for option addicts like us – if you think you understand options in and out – well think again as this guy can teach you another thing or two. Ron not only explains the concept of synthetics very well, but he then takes that to a whole new level and explains how you can ‘morph’ from one positions into the other without throwing commission into the greedy paws of your brokerage firm (sorry TOS).

Now, this is not an attempt to turn a losing position into winning one – which never works and should never be attempted. This is simply about elegantly leveraging options to their fullest potential so that you don’t get stuck on the losing side. The added advantage, psychologically I believe, is that you also are able to ’switch sides’ a lot more painlessly, thus you might not get married to your own analysis. Anyway, go and watch the clip and you’ll know what I mean. It’s free but a pesky first time signup is required if you’ve never been at INO (only email address + name, so I think it’s tolerable). Once you are in you’ll find the clip on the bottom right under ‘The Art of Morphing’ – fascinating stuff but it’s not a short clip, so bring a cup of your favorite brew.

I leave you with this:

Cheers!

Mole

UPDATE 8:32pm EDT: I was able to vastly improve on resident.evil/ES – cumulated profit now 150% compared with 120% previously ($44.3k from $39.6k). Max drawdown actually decreased to 2.37% from previously 2.42%. I plan to update the graph later this evening. I’m also working on resident.evil/NQ but thus far I haven’t been able to replicate that type of a jump but it was originally already at 140%, so maybe the old settings are the sweet spot.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Mole u have a gift of making analysis fun to read !

  • KidDisco

    I have a dumb question which I tried looking around the site to find and answer to but didn't have much luck;

    I know everybody here likes to trade options and futures, but could one also use ETFs?
    It seems like a reasonable assumption, but I didn't know if there was something fundamentally different with trading options/futures from ETFs.

    Sorry if that's a dumb question.

  • http://forkoholic.com Forkoholic

    Wave 5 down The Countdown has begun

    ([title]: Twisted Waves International Presents)

    ( the voice from “In the World..” commercials)

    In The World where Elliott Wave International has failed you, NeoWave has confused you the 3rd power has risen victorious, and will rule the Elliotticians World from now on – Elliott Wave Forkology(EWF) – the only clear, easy and objective Elliott Wave School in town. Coz you can't cheat the pitchfork! Doh!

    It's official, My dear forkoholics and wannabies! We're at EWF starting The Countdown to Saw V ( I mean Wave 5). Yep, you heard correctly – Wave 5 down on $SPX from 2007 top is upon us. Official EWF count can be found here

    We believe it may start within 0 to 60 days ( or around May 20,2009 +/- 2 weeks). Alternative scenario would place start of Wave 5 at around mid July-August timeframe.

    There are two possibilities – Wave 5 down will be short, fast and sweet and end around July/August. The 2nd possibility we entertain now – Wave 5 will be as long in time as Wave 3(May 2008-March 2009) and may bottom around November 2009 – March 2010 timeframe. That's also consists with our earlier forecast what 2009 will be, in many ways similar, if not closer repeat of 2008.

    May the fork be with you, trader!
    http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com

  • salvadorveiga

    Great analyis once again Mole.

    The green scenario would indeed be a WTF one.

    One good setup for an inversion under Gann's cyclical time moves, is either Tuesday or Friday.

    This analysis is from a friend of mine but unfortunately his video is in Portuguese…but is of such great insight.

    I will post it here anyway,

    PART 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPsXshVOx8U

    PART 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=do0jBu8PzMs

    Anyways the thing is, a high probability inversion is Tuesday or Friday.

    Possible points of inversion 942 or 976.75

    The behavior in the Dollar looks like we could indeed go a bit higher, and if Mole's view is correct as an ABC into th 80's I guess it's likely S&P would sit somewhere in the area of 950's.

    I'm beginning to see a lot of bull voices in forums as well… many that were beartards, are now freakin bulltards up to their asses.

    So a good correction could put them into doubting the move.

  • swanswan

    mole…………before i even read today's read………i want to thank you for all that you do here ……….i have learned a lot [except to get an avatar] and have chuckled alot with your humor ……..i'm sorry i don't contribute technically …i am illiterate ..[a stainless steel rat –illiterate]………my gut feeling with this market …..is…government sachs ,et.al. will get the traders,shorts,options out of the market ….by bleeding them like they have the last weeks ….and they have to keep it up for the pension funds,401k 's , etc or else ………………….i think ….in & out fast …….is the way to go ……..hit singles ……thanks , again

  • Niktus

    Google it…

  • Scoops

    $nymo could theoretically explode to either direction eh? It would be nice to have a blow off to the upside, as that would present an incredible opportunity to go short.

    For us Canucks in the mix, the TSE is already over the 200DMA., I'm seeing some really nice setups to the downside. I've been cursing my old man and his ability to randomly pick flyers, Opti being the latest. Here I am sitting in front of the ticker slaving away, and he texts me from the the oil sands and tells me to buy this or that for his account. The latest, but Opti at 1.98. A few days later he's nearly got a double. Meh.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good stuff Mole..Hoping we get a correction here…down to 870….

  • Mastachopchop

    Mole…you are wild. Is that the same train that did a stick up on NYC tax payers?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124163025695992

  • ontheball_offthewall

    Has anyone read the calculatedrisk blog quoting the financial times article on the stress tests?
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/963b0ad2-3be0-11de-ac

    To wit:

    US banks have been given government assurances they will be allowed to raise less than the $74.6bn in equity mandated by stress tests if earnings over the next six months outstrip regulators’ forecasts, bankers said.

    The agreement, which was not mentioned when the government revealed the results on Thursday, means some banks may not have to raise as much equity through share issues and asset sales as the market is expecting. It could also increase the incentive for banks to book profits in the next two quarters.

    The banks have 28 days to announce their capital-raising plans and until November 9 to implement them. Wells Fargo and other banks that will have to raise capital told the Financial Times that if operating profits were greater than the government’s stress-case forecast for the second and third quarter, they would receive credit for the difference. That, in turn, would reduce the need to raise fresh equity from other sources.

    —–

    As calculatedrisk says, “The banks have a real incentive to book profits during Q2 and Q3 – something to remember. “

    ——

    Ponzi-shenanigans I say. I wish the fed would just release a google doc tellings us what prices they want everything to be. Would really help matters.

  • InSpectre_Clouseau

    Great charts. Observationally, it's amazing how sentiment shifts so dramatically in such a short time frames.

    Bob Prechter mentioned the DSI skyrocketing to the mid 90 pcts. 2 years ago.

    “To be successful, you have to sell when people love 'em and buy when they don't. The DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) reading for the S&P on Friday (Feb. 20) was just 3 percent bulls! That’s a long way from weeks of 90%-98% bulls and complete faith in the New Economy, which was widespread when we got short (July 17, 2007).”

    Thanks for the great info.

  • alphadriven

    Outstanding work Mole. I really look forward to these Sunday night posts.

    It seems that the bullish percent and DSI are great tools to complement EW. With 2% stock bulls in early March, it should have been clear that there were no more bears left to sell and fuel further declines. Now I am wondering if the DSI won't be the “tell” for the coming wave three decline. In early March, when you and EWI were saying that the DSI could exceed the extremes of October 2007, it seemed hard to believe. Now, were are a measly 3 points away from from that 88 reading.

    FWIW, Neely from Neowave called the 150 point rally off the March bottom almost perfectly and several weeks ago said that we may get a final rally that takes the S&P to 950 or 1000 in a few weeks. He was also right in this respect. If we got this final rally (which it appears we are in), he says that this will be greatest shorting opportunity since 87 and says definitively that the S&P will break 400 by year end..

  • Autopsias

    Nice videos!!Thanks for sharing!

    At least for us Portuguese speaking rats…

    How many of us are here btw? I know 3 of us so far…

    Mole, another great post! Thanks so much for your hard work!

    I would also like to thank Fuji, pretty deep and enlightening stuff, although I don't know a thing about Options so most of it is quite complex and really Sci fi even for a space fairing martian like me!

  • InSpectre_Clouseau

    Parsing on the Fed, interesting take on inflation/deflation debate by a fixed income blogger:

    http://accruedint.blogspot.com/

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    I'm totally stealing your light at the end of the tunnel analogy, I love it…

    Unfortunately I guess I'm leaning towards Soilent Green as it would line up with the wave count I did on $BKX (thanks Zig Zag for checking it out — I would appreciate feedback from others as well, I'm trying to get better @ EW 🙂
    http://tinyurl.com/qcfhag

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    ES opens down 5..

  • molecool

    “In early March, when you and EWI were saying that the DSI could exceed the extremes of October 2007”

    Nice – you remember that. Most folks don't recall my predictions from just two months ago. Some even called this a 'bear blog' which was puzzling to me. We are bears during bear markets and bulls during bull markets. During consolidations we play it safe – not the worst strategy if you ask me.

  • molecool

    Good stuff, Inspector. Now what have you done with Kato?

  • molecool

    I wish I spoke Portuguese – one of my favorite languages.

  • molecool

    ETFs are fine. Just stay away from trading those 2x or 3x ETFs – unless you just hold them for a few days.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    The Dow is bumping up against a confluence of very old fib fan lines, which all converge near the 8750 region…

    http://tinyurl.com/pfa5lk

  • Autopsias

    We can always appreciate a man with a taste for the finer things in life 🙂

    Although you probably prefer the Brazilian accent I bet 🙂

    I wish you would speak it, because I would really love to hear your comments to those videos. Pretty interesting stuff.

    Salvador, be a sport! Since you're a student, with nothing else to do expect chasing skirts… Could you please translate it? :):)

  • indusequities

    Arak.. hope you are waiting for your gap open.. I'll be shorting more NQ if it gets to 1400 – 1404 level..

  • indusequities

    I'll cover my NQ short near 1360 – 1365 level and wait for reshorting again near 1400 levels…

  • Autopsias

    You're nice tonight aren't you?? :):)

    ETF's been there, but as Mole rightfully said, I would stay away from the white powdery stuff (2x and 3x).

    Options are too complex to small brained and novice martians like me.

    Futures are nicer, less complex and they correlate quite well with all Zero, evil.rat, resident.evil systems Mole provides and which I find quite useful.

  • Gordon_Gekko

    My 3 year old cousin could have done a better job than the “Inspector General” of the Fed in the hearing. I mean the level of lying and incompetence and corruption is just horrific. I cannot believe that this corrupt and worthless institution's paper is still accepted as “money”. No wonder everything is headed down the toilet. This is the real bubble IMNSHO – FRN's, in the process of topping out right now. Never heard so much “Cash is King” from so many people.

  • Anonymous
  • molecool

    “Never heard so much “Cash is King” from so many people.”

    Well, I hate to tell you but there's evidence that the top of this bear market rally is NOT in and may well last until September. Only when a large portion of the mouth breathers are streaming back into equities worried about 'missing the boat' – only then are we even close to painting the top. I believe this is just the top of the first wave of {2}.

  • Anonymous

    Mole (and anyone else who knows),

    What do you use to backtest intraday strategies on a decent timeframe, like a year+?

    Gracias

  • katzo7

    Masterful analysis and writing mole le cool. We will see how next week pans out but if you noticed the one comment I picked off an unmentioned blog and posted (and altered to protect the innocent) in Sector Rotation I could not believe how someone could be so blatantly bullish at this point. A slam dunk. As easy as shooting fish in a barrel. A piece of cake! We will see.

    Thnx for your care and consideration in posting these free “fireside chats.” I know they are time consuming and take considerable time to research. And they are taking precious time away from the strip joints!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck08OzNoBWU

  • salvadorveiga

    what are the other 2 portuguese you know in here ?

  • salvadorveiga

    well, if I couldt attach subtitles to the video I would do some…but I can't =/

  • http://www.mikevadon.blogspot.com mikevadon

    http://mikevadon.blogspot.com/2009/05/faz-bet.html

    This is my final post for the day on the FAZ…

  • alphadriven

    I discovered your site back in October and spend a few hours here each day, even though I don't post alot. Your information, charts, and analysis is much much better than many of the pay EW sites.

    It seems that many of the posters that were here the first few months of the year have disappeared. I wonder how many have simply been wiped out or given up trading in this wave two rally. It goes along with what Prechter says about the great depression, many bulls AND bears were wiped out. A big learning for me, and one that you have preached about many times, it that sometimes it is best to sit on the sidelines. Cash is a position!

  • innatedc

    Hey gang….doing my research and in keeping with Fujis theme of sector rotation I give to you a play and chart on RTH (retail)…it is starting a down channel on the 60min chart, notice the downtrending CCI and rollover on RSI…I like a June bear call credit spread 80/85 for a potential 70+% return in a short period of time (end of May). If you like please point me up as I am (like Katzo) saving up for a toaster……

    http://www.screencast.com/users/innatedc/folder

  • Autopsias

    You, me and Niktus which was in a bad mood judging from his answer below 🙂

  • KidDisco

    Wow genius… thanks for the tip there.

    I googled 'Zero trading model special considerations' but didn't get anything.

    Maybe you can lend a fool like a bit of your i.q.

  • salvadorveiga

    Well mole I can't help you with the Portuguese translation of this video but I can help you to laugh a little… a video I just made 😀

    http://sendables.jibjab.com/view/g8BAuHTKGyCAc6MR

  • BalaB

    9 up weeks in a row has an est. 0.88% statistical odds of occurring (and thus a 99.2% chance this week will reverse).

    The NQs and ES really have changed their tune since the past Wed. No longer is the opening action motivated by an upward thrust perpetrated by the NQs. Of course this could all change Monday. For some time, I've been wary of shorting the market intra-day (*My shorts have only been over the weekend SPY puts). But over the last few trading days, the real meat$ has been on the short side. Thurs and Fri. we're just beautiful opening pop and drop action. The steepness of the drops can make you a little uneasy but boy do they work out nicely.

    Best, BB

  • katzo7

    Hey innatedc,
    Sorry guy, there is only one toaster available and I have my eye on it. How about the second place, a clap on clap off lamp switching system. Actually, I think that is the better prize so you would be making out much better. Honest injun!
    Jeez, I should be in the Fed. gov. as I can lie just as good as them.

  • seawolves

    balba b lots here see a big drop asap, could if possibly trend sideways little longer after opex and then have the bulls poop in their pants. maybe little drop e.o.m., and much in june this rally caught me off-guard thanks

  • innatedc

    Oh alright but only if the clap on clap off lamp is a Lava Lamp. I need one for my retro fitted love shack room where all my shagging takes place….yeah baby yeah!!!!!

  • salvadorveiga

    http://sendables.jibjab.com/view/g8BAuHTKGyCAc6MR

    These guys are definetely our saviours…. !!

    Featuring Bernanke, Obama, Clinton, Paulson and Geithner 😀

  • katzo7

    Was going to post a Austin Powers vid but that whole thing really disgusts
    me. See, even I have some scruples.

  • arak0

    I'm out of commission for a few days … screwed my neck and arm and high on pain killers and muscle relaxants. So, I'll be cautious taking trades as I won't be able to trade with a clear mind. Whatever happens, I'll be taking the opex closing trade though on the short side.

  • katzo7

    BB,
    REPOST from about 12 hrs. ago. COuld not believe this!
    Found this over on another site although I rephrased it a bit so don't go looking for it. Actually, I wished I had found even more of this kind of euphoria.
    “I fully agree this rally is strong…. and I am loving that this rally is getting much more predictable… We are all going to a millionaires soon…. Wish I had more cash to invest at this time.”
    I guess this is going to be easy!

  • wex

    Where can I find a chart of the DSI? I've never used it before and any advice on it would be appreciated

  • Anonymous

    Exactly. A lot of people are not giving this rally the benefit of the doubt, and September also appears to me to be the looming top.

  • hope238

    Thank you captain Mole for your post. Fascinating and enlightening!

  • seawolves

    katzo everybody will be millionaires, mole will be a universeanaire, but it will take a full wheelbarrow of greenbacks to buy a loaf of bread ask zimbawi. the economy is fine one million new census jobs 25,00 fed money printing related jobs everythings a-o.k.

  • molecool

    I've seen many posters disappear as well. There was this other German guy who used Asterisk (from the French cartoon) as an icon. Suddenly disappeared without a trace – pretty sure he lost money in the markets and decided to stop trading.

    This blog is a bit like where I live – the city of L.A. – a lot of folks show up – hang out for a while but then when they don't see a future for themselves they disappear to where they came from. I once read that 10% of the U.S. population at some point lived in Los Angeles county.

    Now, if we could just get more hot chicks with fake boobs then my ad banner profits would go through the roof!! 😉

    Seriously now – this is probably some of the toughest tape in generations – no surprise many rats don't have the staying power. My personal goal is to lead as many of you guys through the next few years and hopefully into happy retirement.

  • molecool

    Hey, did you guys enjoy that morphing video? I still have about 15 minutes left to watch but I loved the first 3/4 of it. That guy strikes me like my drill instructor back in the old Fatherland: 'What you don't remember how to build a synthetic call? Drop down and gimme 50!!'. Really like his delivery and clearly knows his options inside and out. Whenever you think you know everything there's to know about options trading someone comes along and proves you wrong – fascinating.

  • ropey

    Three cheers for Mole 🙂

  • ropey

    Fabulous post yet again, i'm no elliot man but i'm picking up scraps here and there, it's quite uncanny how accurate it can be. Please keep drilling the 'must see both sides' into my thick skull, sometimes i'm too focused on the downside and it's not a huge amount of fun trying to anticipate and fight a trend, sometimes it works, more than often not it doesn't.
    Lookng for an exit strategy on my SPY butterfly+puts next week, i'm clinging to a little hope they MM's do fill the 908 gap before the run it up to 940. Who knows, if they jam it up i'm going to have to cut and run and assess the next entry point…
    Needless to say i do enjoy a last minute jolly with indexes on the week of opex, can be very profitable.

    PS Kudos to the tunnel pic at the top, i haven't laughed out loud in a fair while 🙂

  • katzo7

    I am burying gold in the back yard.

    Hey, how about geting an avatar? your posts look so blank without one.

  • Squidman

    One of the most disturbing things I've watched in a long time.

  • molecool
  • ropey

    What a crock..

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Banks-got

    So C was at 35bill$ and they talked to the fed down to 5.5bill$?

  • nummy

    keep in mind that in recessions and depressions, there are always a number of false starts before true recovery begins. i don't know any of the statistics but i'm sure they are out there somewhere. i think history will tend to repeat itself.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yes good clip Mole.Thanks for posting the morphing video.

  • ropey

    Oh look, Bank of England attempting to strap turbos to their printing presses..

    Another day, another 50 billion pounds!

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKTRE54

  • Hng10

    Thanks for the post Mole! Very good stuff. I definitely look forward to these big picture posts to start the week off right …

  • Blankfiend

    Mole,
    Thanks for a fabulous post. Also, thanks for your great intentions regarding advising those of us just trying to take charge of our retirement funding.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    A writer friend of mine got one of those Census jobs here in LA. He loved it — they had hired way too many people (no doubt b/c the administration wanted a huge number of jobs created). Each day he worked a few hours then got to go home, but of course he was paid for a full day. This went on for a couple of months, long enough I assume for the administration to claim credit for the jobs #. Then 2 weeks ago he and a bunch of other people were let go. Mission Accomplished!

  • BalaB

    Well, if the $USd keep dropping I can see the current rally having a bit more tail wind. Thurs and Fri afternoon melt up case in point (imo).

  • EDC

    Top of the first wave of {2}. Help me understand something… that makes sense.

    Primary two should be an ABC correct? So are we near the top of A? or 1 (and it will be a 5 count)

    TIA.

    Great blog and appreciate the work that you do.

  • Anonymous

    Awesome post, Mole. I can definitely see us pulling back here and then going up for another few months. I wanted to answer your survey, but you didn’t put a space for customer service, which is a big reason that I picked TOS. 30 second hold times and English-speaking operators are much better than the 20+ minute hold times and ESL operators of my old online brokerage firm. (Questrade).

  • lester

    katzo, is that from “stocktradershq.com”? Sounds like their writing…

  • katzo7

    Nope, guess again. I really don't want to say. It is a frequently visited
    one.

  • OJuice

    Never give up. Never surrender.

  • Woolly Llama

    Put me down for being in that category. Brutal 2 expiration cycles + I'm taking a month off. Headed to Europe for 3 weeks. Amsterdam to Munich is one leg of my trip. I've never been to Germany, any thoughts you are willing to share?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    what's your address? I want to send you a present

    ;->

  • lester

    has anyone here ever heard of a service called “stocktradershq.com”? A friend recommended them, but it costs $50 per month. Thought I would check here to see if anyone has ever used them.

  • katzo7

    YOU want me to post my address on the blog? I'd get letter bombs from many.
    LOL

  • katzo7

    As I said in an earlier mole post, I wish I saw more of this kind of post. Point is that it is not who said it but that this person is so optimistic that they are not thinking correctly. I hope a real contrarian view.

  • katzo7

    katzo368 (at) gmail dot you know what

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    1) I thought you were retired
    2) Why pay for analysis of unknown value when you already get bad ass analysis here for free? Money's probably better spent on the Zero or the evil.rat bros

  • ropey

    Wall street took my scruples last year..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVNCVDlANTs&feat

  • TomOfTheNorth

    why not? and it's got NOTHING at all to do with your buried gold……I ALWAYS carry a shovel around with me…

  • Squidman

    Until you learn how to evaluate information on your own don't spend money on getting more. Have you read chapters 1-3 yet? Read the first 3 chapters 3 times.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    This just in – Geithner offers additional insights into stress tests (after the ad):

    http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/cl

  • mrclam

    Mole,
    Just finished watching the video…found it very helpful, but I think I'm going to need to sit down and play with it in TOS…a LOT before I actually understand it. If I'm not mistaken, this is a bit like what fuji-san describes as adjusting her positions right? Anyways, thanks for passing on the link!

  • ontheball_offthewall

    Or you could just make your own system from the insane leveraged etf's. Here's a simple system I made ten seconds ago; daily system, buy and sell on close.

    Buy rule:[IMG]http://i44.tinypic.com/30ubc4k.png[/IMG]
    Sell rule:[IMG]http://i41.tinypic.com/23lys9d.png[/IMG]
    Results YTD (assuming trading $5000 each time and no reinvestment of proceeds):
    [IMG]http://i40.tinypic.com/29orjps.png[/IMG]

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    mole, thanks for the map. Cheers!

  • lilme

    Lester, I am also learning…and what I finally understood was that I needed to find a book/blog that i could use…there is so much info out there that I would get overwhelmed. So you might poke around in a bookstore or buy some used books online or there are lots of 'download free' books on trading out there and read the one that makes the most sense to you and try to paper trade it. there are lots of ways to make money in the markets, but there is only one YOU to understand and use a method. Following others' blogs without understanding can be a costly hobby, I assure you. Right now I am reading The Logical Trader by Mark Fisher. The thing I found most confusing in the recent 1-2 years was evaluating market sentiment and direction…and I think I am simply learning to trade in a very difficult period of the markets. People here are both gracious and supportive. Good Luck.

  • lester

    thanks to those of you that responded. There are no easy answers and trading is incredibly difficult. I have not forgotten about getting that book that some of you keep mentioning

  • moneyfarm

    I haven't heard of this one. I have tried a few newsletters/service in the past and did not find value in them. Spend $19 more a month for one of the evil.rat bros – well worth it IMO and will easily pay for itself.

  • rhae

    McClellan is Kool…

    I thought I would check in with High-Low Breadth also…

    DIA daily charts
    http://screencast.com/t/lh8WNM1GTh
    http://www.screencast.com/t/XaJ1jBfxWUI

  • http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12013 UPB

    Yeah. Lobbyists can do wonders. None of my tests in college and high school were negotiable.

  • Merlynn

    Great post mole, I love your site and have been learning about futures to jump on board with evil.rat ES. I have been searching through earnings next week for some “Fujisan” calendars, and STL looks pretty good for that opex calendar, would like to see a little more open interest, but it has the most open interest with the best vol spread that I have seen yet.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Corrective waves can take many different forms. I think Mole is predicting at the very least a “two triples” wave, which would manifest itself as an A-B-C up followed by a fairly big drop (an “X” wave) and a second A-B-C. If my understanding is correct, we are about to top out on the first of the A-B-C patterns and drop into the X down.

  • rhae

    I have subscribed to many sites and have picked up some nice tid bits on most of them… about the most that I stayed subscribed was a month, many with free 1 month trials, if you have a PAY-PAL account and they offer 1 month free… 29 days then dump it… ( unless you Luv them and it is paying for itself with good set-ups)

    I agree, Rat site has a lot to offer…..

    Be careful about some sites, where they want your credit card, there are a few that are run by stupid robots and it can be hell to unsubscribe.

    A valuable tip for me was to match my trading style to my personality…

    I know one guy that scalps daily high flyers with only ma crosses… that would drive me completely nuts! I prefer slow and easy and I may not care to hang around the computer screen all day… so I lean a little more to the longer timeframes… you get the point

    I do not subscribe to anything now,,,

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Mole — Great update, as always. Thanks.

    A slightly different chart for gold: http://screencast.com/t/LwIw0lom
    I like your longer term diagonal, but I also have a channel from the recent high, which says we have some nice downside ahead. Might be shorting a /YG contract here, with a stop at Thursday's high.

  • molecool

    I actually had an idea for a JavaScript based calculator. Came up with a formula that makes translations very simple. More later.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I know most of us (myself included) are expecting a pull back, but should that not happen here are a few symbols that various technical indicators on the daily charts (combination of CCI, MACD, RSI, Stoch) seem to show as having some upside… let me know your thoughts.

    UBCH, BAX, ADM, MCD

  • fa_q

    “None of my tests in college and high school were negotiable.”

    Then I'm guessing you're not a 5'9 smoking hot blonde with huge guns…

  • standard_and_poor

    Do you feel lucky, if so IMHO wave 5 of 5 of P2 should complete Monday for SPX
    and XLF. Here are the targets:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/6UV979EkWZR
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YkldLwZF
    Good luck beautiful rats and blind squirrels.

  • fiki

    I feel stupid for asking but I´ve googled and googled…

    What is the DSI?

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Have a couple of questions:

    In Fujisan's report today she seemed to indicate that a pullback from here would constitute wave 4 and that the following push on to higher highs would complete wave 5. You indicate that we are already in wave 5. Is that right?

    Second, it looks like Mole, Fujisan, and perhaps you are looking for a pullback, but only a pullback and perhaps a move on to higher highs before the bear truly resurfaces. Is this because we have just seen a 5 wave up rather than merely a 3 wave correction?

    Thanks

  • redpill

    daily sentiment index

  • salvadorveiga

    Thanks alot mole… alot of your work is appreciated…

    I'm happy I'm having you kind of as my mentor in my early trading life

    Hoping I can be as successful as you somewhere down in the future… thanks

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance
  • Paleface

    I miss UcclaTheMokk too. He was the most diligent novice here. (Unlike me…)
    Your posts set up a very high standard, and the blog always attracts some who can match.
    Thanks for the great post!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Hey gang,

    I posted my first working list of eligible shorts tonight since March 16th (it hasn't seemed appropriate, really in that span of time)

    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

    It may still be too early, for all I know, but there were enough negative charts out there this weekend to suggest getting ready, if not more.

    The screens were taken only from industry groups declining in relative-strength (previous several weeks). It is a working list only, of names I may or may not attack depending on a variety of factors.

    Good luck trading this week.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Hey gang,

    I posted my first working list of eligible shorts tonight since March 16th (it hasn't seemed appropriate, really in that span of time)

    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

    It may still be too early, for all I know, but there were enough negative charts out there this weekend to suggest getting ready, if not more.

    The screens were taken only from industry groups declining in relative-strength (previous several weeks). It is a working list only, of names I may or may not attack depending on a variety of factors.

    Good luck trading this week.

  • katzo7
  • katzo7

    Why do that? You will get whipsawed. You have mole's Zero right?
    Some rules to consider.
    Follow MACD/stochs on your favorite time frame(s). I use 3 min. (only to time getting in and out at tops/bottoms, 10 min.and 60 min. to determine ST and LT direction. I use EWs, you should follow mole's count for this.
    Do not buy or sell in first and last hour EXCEPT under extreme gap conditions, meaning that if you are long and the market gaps up 2 or 3%, get out of longs. If you are leaning towards being short and market gaps up buy shorts at high and use MACD/stochs/EWs on short term time frames to determine the high.
    Learn how to chart. Use and apply EWs or trend lines or something. I saw that you were getting in at top of ST moves and when it sold down a bit, you would get spooked and get out. You don't make a decision and are comfortable with it. But in order for th eposition to pay, the call has to be right. If so, eventually you will get paid.
    Do not listen to anyone about what to buy. Do your own research. Set targets and stops although these wild swings are about MMS taking stops out.
    Even though I told you not to listen to anyone, Please post what you are thinking of doing way (I mean with plenty of notice) way before you do it so we can see if it is in context with what we see and perhaps even chart it for you. That is what this blog is all about, take advantage of this function.

  • fiki

    thanx redpill…

  • katzo7

    Yeah, I feel lucky.
    Is it this kind of luck?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7l2y8HDU7-U
    Or this?
    http://www.isrealli.org/wp-content/uploads/bond… (BTW, a Bond girl which katzo 007 likes)
    Or this?
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • katzo7

    Or this?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrIRE29a8E0
    BTW, I used to ski but subsequently determined I was suicidal so had to give it up.

  • katzo7
  • Niktus

    While exchange some ideias with my green friend, regarding the dolar index.
    I showed him a different interpretation from the one Mole gives in this entry.
    The chart seems to point that a sort of top is in?
    Comments very welcome. Thanks

    http://screencast.com/t/RUks5KP6

  • katzo7

    I just offered a different view below, that of an ABC ending to the dollar's fall. I actually like your chart better (I am short, we get there quicker) but in my chart I don't see a volume conformation of a sell off quite yet. I would love to see that vol. conformation.

  • annamall

    Morning everyone!~ hope your weekend was great! First let me say thank you Fujisan for a great explanation of the EWT. I am reading all about the EWT and beginning to really get it!

    Hope this is the end of the GS's wave and we at least get our correction and can bank some $. Then we can hop on the long side for a short while and ride that wave.

    I am still short (BF) AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, GS,WYNN, USO
    Long FAZ, QCOM

  • Niktus

    Thanks for the comment.
    I didnt notice your chart below the utube bells 😉
    Sadly i can't post volume data on my chart, because i dont have volume data.
    I closed my short this morning to lock profit. Now i am waiting for opening to reopen if things look good.
    Hopefully we are right 😉

  • katzo7
  • katzo7

    Niktus,
    Email me at
    katzo368 (at) gmail dot you know what

  • EDC

    perfect, thanks!

  • indusequities

    What a nice gap down and hit my target of 911 on ES and 1360-1365 level on NQ. Covered 1/4th here @ 911.00 .. Will look for reopen after later this afternoon..

    Feed: Disqus – Latest Comments for indusequities
    Posted on: Friday, May 08, 2009 3:14 PM
    Author: indusequities
    Subject: Re: Everybody’s Favorites

    Everytime I revise my target, I would've positioned to be at higher prices.. Holding core with an average price of 925.00. Closed all latest day trades for 1 handle profit.

    I'm looking for a gap down on Monday.. 911 will be the area I'll cover to reshort again.

  • annamall

    I agree Indus! I covered my short ES @ the exact same 911. Good call and I will reopen later pm as well.

  • molecool

    That's a very good sign 🙂

  • arak0

    Bravo Nandu.

    What is the range for today? My rough reading shows between 903 and 919. Don't know which order we do it though – up – down – up or down – up – down.

  • ropey

    Yeh it's hit the gap resistance although i'm hoping for the gap to fill today before the flip it….a fill of 908 then the fill back to 920 would be perfect ( but it never works out like that lol )

  • ropey

    Look at the daily on the USD/JPY – another precursor to the market rollover? The moves correlate with the market since June seems a right shoulder is finished on a nice H&S right now…

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Covered ES short at 912 +12.75 points.

    I will short once the gap is filled.

    Cheers!! Good start of the week. 😉

  • Niktus

    Thank you.

  • v8muscle

    we should be good for a nice bounce right here

    http://screencast.com/t/JA7gciFt

  • lester

    thanks for the advice and comments. I will take them to heart that is for sure. And I will post any move I make before I do it. That being said, I have a small SPY Jun 90 Put position that I bought on Fri and that is my only position. I will close those if SPY rallys after 10 AM today.

  • Anonymous

    No need with a great blogg community like this one… When in doubt just ask and someone always expalains

  • indusequities

    yes some where near that

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Anything wrong with TOS charts?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    AIG to Sell Tokyo Real Estate Asset for About $1.2 Billion

  • salvadorveiga

    WHAT ??? I just took a look at FAZ the damn thing is trading at 4 USD… man these things move fast…. we went nowhere and in one week it dropped from 9 USD to 4 USD….

  • katzo7

    Follow my notes. Either close them at the bottom of this move this morning,
    watch MACD/stochs, or hold them for longer period. Don't know for sure if
    there will be a gap fill but I am leaning towards this move continuing down
    ST/IT.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I had a problem on Friday but I cleared my browser cache and that fixed it.

  • salvadorveiga

    Sol must be hurting from his huge massive FAZ position bought last week

  • nummy

    its getting close to 5 … i dont know why you are so surprised on Friday it's low was 4.xx something.

  • katzo7

    Oooopppps.
    Mega-bulls didn't get a chance to enjoy their profits for long at the top, remember I said this would happen last week? Look at 60 min. MACD.

  • v8muscle

    well that ES support broke, should see 902 before the pop now

  • molecool

    I hope everyone is enjoying the ride this morning 😉

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Excellent Nandu..
    Nice trade waffle..

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Yeah, looks like ~10m data lag or something. Prophet works, though.

  • lester

    I am thinking of adding to my short position by buying some QQQQ and RTH Puts for July as those seem to be weakest sectors. Would you buy now or wait until after lunch?

  • indusequities

    Covered 1/2 @ 906.50

  • molecool

    Sorry – next time I provide a link.

  • molecool

    Boy, you are a piece of work, anyone ever tell you that?

  • BalaB

    TOS = UNACCEPTABLE!

  • katzo7

    lester, review my rules I just sent you.. You already want to violate one?

  • GoCougs

    Nice call Mole, really enjoyed the weekend post.

  • fuw

    TRIN is showing readings of 2.6, values I haven't seen in weeks….

  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    Hey everyone been following this blog for a long time and it inspired some of us to get together and start our own little venture! Thanks for the support!
    http://www.optionsvista.com/

  • lester

    I know it is early. Don't trade this early. Sit on hands.

  • indusequities

    TOS down again? Bastards

  • Matador11235

    My TOS missing bars just got filled. We should be back on track boys and girls. Very frustrating though.

  • rhae

    SPY 3m pace ( not momo) still strong down 150% want to see what happens after it slows and how high it goes. Pace always fast in mornings, clearing lmt orders. and errational exuburance.

    and see if pace stays high past Katzo 10:10 EST time

  • katzo7

    They don't call this amateur hour for nothing!

  • ropey

    argh GS you donkey – i got out 1 min before you cracked down a $1 lolol

  • indusequities

    technically I feel like going long on NQ for a 15 handle day trade… but naahh.. I made my money today..

  • lester

    Piece, No, never. Not sure what you are implying, I guess you think I should keep those Puts, but not if green is gonna happen.

  • BalaB

    well, I'm done.

    I missed way too many opportunities this morning because of the damn charting. I'm too pissed to be trading.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    ALL 30 DOW STOCKS IN RED AS BLUE-CHIP INDEX FALLS 140 POINTS …weeeeeeee

  • katzo7

    Step away BB.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Long ES @ 907.25

  • katzo7

    V8, this break your channel?

  • BalaB

    I AM OUT…. ; (

    Oh well….

  • indusequities

    shorted NQ @ 1379 to go long @ 1370 🙂

  • standard_and_poor

    If we don't break 901-902 in next 1-2 hours I think we'll see new highs after completion of abc flat.

  • ropey

    Agreed, GS is relatively strong in this tape which is a tell. Looks like it doesnt want to rollover today….the beauty is that gap was opened up this morning is a juicy target, any fill of that maybe good but also may have to wait till this magic 940-945 ES first…

  • lester

    I am going to close my SPY Puts for a 10% gain

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Thanks indus, I'm in short 2xNQ@1381

  • indusequities

    Thinking of shorted ES @ 910.50 with a stop loss above 911.25 🙂

  • salvadorveiga

    no… i havent checked FAZ for like since tuesday or last monday… so yes got surprised 😀

  • v8muscle

    no sir…. ALMOST broke a crapload of them, but most of them held. We dropped a bit more than I expect though, but things still look ok for the long side. NQ's very strong today also. That being said, the cracks in the channels are beginning to form, even if the candles still close inside the channel

    XLF: http://screencast.com/t/apSvoum7Aw
    SPX: http://screencast.com/t/HANGpCPI0Zj
    IWM: http://screencast.com/t/BNMnI5oa
    Transports: http://screencast.com/t/h9ORPxDO
    Dollar Index: http://screencast.com/t/p3XmwCN8Hl

  • katzo7

    Hey guys, I am getting EW5s on multiple lower time frames, all the way up to the 60. Be careful here, she could go up and push these EW5s higher BUT . . . .

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    My target price to close the position is 912.75

  • fuw

    The ~12.5 area should be support for xlf (earlier resistance), so it will be interesting to see if it breaks through.

  • indusequities

    stop loss @ 1385..if it takes out, will open my IT short position @ 1406

  • v8muscle

    XLF not going anywhere. even with the selling in the SPX it hasnt fallen much further than it did this morning. I suspect we will push higher later today and continue that tomorrow.

    this is the last OpEx that the market makers can squeeze bears, so they will surely do that. June OpEx will be much more bear-friendly imo

  • v8muscle

    i dont know crap about EWT but what I'm seeing is in line with that prediction

  • v8muscle

    oh and also the dollar is falling fairly quickly, which will give bulls some ammo

  • indusequities

    There she goes..NQ to 1406.. Classic text book short opportunity coming on NQ @ 1406.. Lets see if they take out 1406.. I'll be opening some decent short position @ that level, if it gets there

  • alphahorn

    FWIW, I see us in a 5 wave pattern down from the completion of the up leg on Friday. Friday before the close we put in waves 1 and 2, I expected a gap down today as wave 3 which we did get. Now, we appear to be in wave 4, if so then we should have another wave down coming in a bit. I believe we're still in a of this abc correction.

  • lester

    is that becasue none of the bears have any money left? Or is it simply a calendar thing with June OpEx?

  • BalaB

    Just grabbed the push to the gap fill on the NQs (+9.75 per contract)
    ES is still a bit messy but there's probably some quick long side potential.

  • v8muscle

    in my experience the MMs will hold the trend through opex, but try to suck in as many counter trend speculators as possible. The trend is easier to hold than breaking the trend, and costs much less for the MM's.

    people will feel much better shorting the market at the upper 900's though

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    If we hold 912.75 on ES we will test 916.50

  • v8muscle

    good god thats a hell of a trend lol.

  • indusequities

    Yes..have a short order @ 917.25

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Cool I will reverse my position there. Cheers!!

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks Alpha, always glad to hear your take.

    om: Disqus <>
    To: comfort888@ameritech.net
    Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 9:17:26 AM
    Subject: [evilspeculator] Re: Light At The End Of The Tunnel

    alphahorn wrote, in response to standard_and_poor:

    FWIW, I see us in a 5 wave pattern down from the completion of the up leg on Friday.  Friday before the close we put in waves 1 and 2, I expected a gap down today as wave 3 which we did get.  Now, we appear to be in wave 4, if so then we should have another wave down coming in a bit.  I believe we're still in a of this abc correction.

    Link to comment: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=7135#comment-9204635


    You may reply to this email to post your response. To turn off notifications, go to your Disqus settings at: http://disqus.com/settings/notifications/

  • katzo7

    UUP up .24%?

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks, I took a page from your book; I bought a case of tomato juice and ordered my bow-flex. LOL
     

    ________________________________

  • v8muscle

    i was looking at tnx

  • v8muscle

    hahahhah nice!

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks Ropey, I've got my fingers crossed all 17 of them.

    ________________________________

  • alphahorn

    b of 4 just retraced 50% of a, here comes c, then we should get our move down; nice short entry point coming in a bit

  • indusequities

    Opened first lot NQ short @ 1399

  • ropey

    Aapl got an upgrade from Kaufman, trying to find details, mentioned on TOS radio – i >think< target was raised to 160

  • mrclam

    Hey eveyrone, given that the NQ is up a bit today, and the ES is lagging, is that a sign that they are still rotating sectors, and that we aren't finished with the uptrend? Just a thought from what Fuji said in her post over the weekend.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks double 0, I liked all three especially the second.
     

    ________________________________

  • indusequities

    Second lot order placed @ 1406.00 .. No stop loss yet. Will closely monitor the action near 1410 area

  • annamall

    me three! 😉

  • Squidman

    me 4

  • indusequities

    Got my 1406..

  • katzo7

    Not me! LOL

  • ropey

    This is a pretty meaty move by the /NQ my only concern now is if they start jacking the /ES up to fill the gap today that may bring the nas up more than anticipated.i'm hoping the highs from last week hold though and the nas just chops here or slow backs down if they move funds back out of tech into the other stuff….

  • molecool

    Yup – same game.

  • katzo7

    I think 150

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • indusequities

    Hows that trend?

  • annamall

    Hey Clamman,
    Don't worry about aaple (it should land under 130 by OPX) QCOM is working well and RIMM. Do you have aaple and rimm BF's?

  • katzo7

    It is at 917.34, if it goes much above here, my scenario is off for a continued and orderly down move.

  • alphahorn

    Nice short entry here

  • mrclam

    Hi Anna,
    haven't been worrying about it at all actually, getting a much better feel for how the market is moving throughout the day thanks to everyone here 🙂 Have both BFs!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Working ordere to short NQ @ 1410 🙂

  • BalaB

    NQs have returned to an opening parabolic launch

    Thank Quetzalcoatl charting was back in time to grab at least that trade. (three other beeuuutttiiiful trades were missed….)

  • annamall

    I have an order to sell ES @ 917.50 and I already sold NDQ @ 1404. 🙂

  • AZTrader

    first post, interesting commentary. I'm new to options, but the basic parity formula is S+P-C=0+(T-Bill). s= long stock, p= long put, c= short call. Since most traders hold on a more short-term basis, you can simplify it to S+P-C=0. A long call would be S+P=C. Morph it to a Long Put by shorting stock P=C-S or long Stock by selling the Put which is S=C-P. Pretty simple but powerful stuff. I don't think most traders understand the simplicity of options.

  • Fujisan

    You're welcom, Anna. You are inspirational and such a powerhouse! I'm still short AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ.

  • annamall

    We sure did miss you today, on one of the last posts I made was where's our Fujisan??
    🙂

    I am looking forward to seeing the BF @ May opx on these.

  • Fujisan

    You're welcom, Anna. You are inspirational and such a powerhouse! I'm still short AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    We sure did miss you today, on one of the last posts I made was where's our Fujisan??
    🙂

    I am looking forward to seeing the BF @ May opx on these.