Lighten Up And Think Long Term

Today’s session is suggesting that a little shake out session or two may be on the horizon. Which in any case would not be uncharacteristic after having seen some very long candles across the board in the past two days:

At the time of this snapshot we had about two more hours to go in the session. But I think it’s fair to say that my NYSE volume gauges are looking rather mechanic today. Also note that low launch point and the lack of follow through throughout the session (thus far). The lines are also extremely smooth and it seems the bots are running this one almost to perfection.

Whether or not we do see a shake out – here’s my next upside target range on the spoos. The volume profile is pretty much useless right now as there simply is none. But I think it’s fair to expect us visiting the 1450 range before we see a meaningful correction. Not that I care all that much about equities right now anyway.

Reason being – we are doing just fine on most of our FX and commodities trades. I really hope some of you went along for the ride – especially after this mind numbing August we all had to suffer through. But this once again demonstrates one of our core tenets: Ignore the news, the noise, and your emotions – wait for the right time to strike and then do not hesitate.

Of course part of the equation is taking profits and I would probably take a few contracts off the table at this point. We had some very nice entries here and it’s time to bank some coin. But I would definitely keep a few lottery tickets in the running and the reason for that are my long term charts. I have many of those waiting for you today and you don’t want to miss it as they are absolutely fascinating and well worth considering in your medium to long term trading endeavors.

Some VERY nice entries on gold as well. Time to lighten up but once again before you close out all together I suggest you take a look at my long term chart.

Ditto on silver – if you are a sub then you recall that there were at least two entries in the past month. Time to lighten up, but…. well, you guessed it, wait for that LT chart.

Dollar – once again a similar story. Hemming and hawing for weeks but giving us reasonable entries – if you were patient. That last kiss goodbye was just textbook and I hope are you are enjoying the fruit of your labor today. Once again – lighten up but wait for my LT chart before closing out everything.

Since it’s Friday I decided to take a look at my weekly charts – and boy, am I glad I did! Frankly I haven’t been this excited for a long time and I have an inkling you will too. This is the kind of stuff we rats live for – please step into the lair:
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Let’s take it from the top:  NZD/USD – the 0.79 support level appears to be holding thus far. If we hold through the month it’s looking very positive.

Cable – exceedingly interesting chart. We just sliced through weekly resistance and may be passing monthly as well. If we hold here until October then my target range is 1.62 to 1.63.

Weekly breach also on the EUR/USD – I don’t see any type of LT resistance until about 1.34. Suffice to say that my life in Spain is going to get quite a bit more expensive. Glad I hedged myself! 😉

If you turn the EUR/USD chart around you pretty much get the DX – this chart is looking SAD. Target range below 78.5.

CAD/JPY – officially in our breach resistance watch list. If we clear the 80 mark by Oct then we will have overcome weekly and monthly resistance. Has not happen yet but it seems to be gaining mojo for another attempt. Keep an eye on this one.

AUD/USD – looking a bit mixed and locked in between weekly support and monthly resistance. It’s an interesting chart though and we need to wait for a bit more movement this month. The 100-week SMA could be the big trend separator here.

ZB (30-year treasuries) is looking confused – I think I will not touch that one for a little while. The weekly is looking like the daily – support/resistance levels get touched and then reversed. Until bond traders take a clue pill we should give this one a miss.

Silver – NOW we are talking. We just breached weekly resistance and if we hold up we may just clear that monthly NLBL. That would be extremely positive and keep us in the game until almost 42!

Same situation over in gold – here we may be looking at 1860 – assuming of course the monthly NLBL breach holds until Oct.

Copper breached its weekly and looks good to go until 3.9.

Crude is the laggard here but it has managed to defend the 94 mark on both the weekly and monthly side. If we finally clear the magic 100 mark then I think we are good until at least 105.5, maybe higher.

Well, that ought to keep you guys busy for a while. Again, these are medium to long term chart. If you want to hitch rides on any of those then wait for good entries – I will be sure to report on anything juicy I see on the daily side.

Cheers,