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Live Tape Reading W1217
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Live Tape Reading W1217

by The MoleMarch 23, 2017

During my time away it didn’t escape my attention that you guys very much enjoyed Scott’s excerpts on tape reading. As you all know I am very much a systemic trader at this point but at the same time still enjoy following a variety of charts on a discretionary/analytical basis for three reasons: First I happen to be good at it as my thinking process follows a mixture between the analytical and the creative. Second it gives me opportunities for campaigns I would miss out on just focusing on my systems. Third reading the tape actually gives me ideas for building new automated systems. For all these reasons and more I decided to do one post exclusive to tape reading every week going forward. Let’s dive right in.

2017-03-23_spoos

The Zero showed me a possible long entry late in the session yesterday which I however pulled as I didn’t want to hold this position overnight. How come? What are my criteria for holding a campaign overnight?

2017-03-22_zero

Well, for starters yesterday’s short term campaign was based on a signal on the Zero (shown above) which should have resolved upward at the end of the session. Unfortunately however we only got a little bounce followed by a reversal. Now had there been other context I may have left it in place, but unfortunately there wasn’t much to hang my hat on.

If you take another peek at the first chart you’ll notice a few things. The only support context I see on the daily panel *appears to be* the 25-day SMA. But let’s remember that this is nothing but my personal ‘lens’, which I settled on after years of observation and then continued to use as it actually produced statistically verifiable context suggesting that a bounce happened 65% of the time if the next two candles recovered above it after a breach or touch. No succeeding candle was allowed to continue lower. I will actually produce a scatter chart and prove it, just like Scott showed you in a future post, but for now let’s just take it as a given.

Now I may also point out something which Scott may not have covered. And that is that certain observations are extremely difficult to test completely. As you can see I have drawn white arrows at a series of spike lows on the E-Mini. The reason for doing so is that none of them actually touched the damn SMA. Plus the most recent price touch shows no sign of observing it as it just continued higher as if it wasn’t there.

BECAUSE IT ISN’T.

I think this is one of those lessons many traders have a hard time embracing. Whatever context you use, and even if you have statistically proven evidence that it is real, at some point or other fails to have any value. Sometime that’s only for a few days, sometimes weeks, and often even months. And then suddenly it starts working again. The trick is to gather statistically sufficient data that shows you that there is an edge in the first place (again see Scott’s post on how to do this). Once you have conclusive evidence you need to figure out when it works and when it stops working. Sometimes there will be signs preceding or accompanying it – but more often it will simply stop for no apparent reason. Accepting this and responding appropriately is a topic in its own, which again we will cover sometime in the future.

So in summary, I didn’t want to continue holding what was a small speculative long position because the odds of failure near the EOS outweighed the odds of success.

2017-03-23_spoos_volatility

Volatility is a complementary aspect of tape reading I have introduced here on several occasions. I see value in observing it as it gives me additional clues as to what to expect in the near time future (not three weeks out). For example after a sudden spike in realized volatility (blue squares) it was clear that the E-mini would most likely settle into a trading range of some sort. You can see clear evidence of the ‘barbed wire’ type of tape Scott often mentions in his posts.

Right now we have reached the lower range of the RV scale and I would expect an increase in RV again once we cross over. Now realized volatility can rise in sideways tape as well, let’s not forget that! But the current configuration on the 60min chart suggests that a break out of the range has the highest probability. This is not a bad spot for a long position if we drop back down a little (RTV-L type of setup) or a short position if we breach the lows and then paint a retest. If any of those scenarios happen I’ll be all over them like a fat kid on a Mars bar.

2017-03-23_crude

Crude is another great example of distinct market phases. Just look at the sideways mess during the Feb and March contracts. I told you back then to not touch this one with a ten foot pole and I was right. Of course once the range was breached (without magic outside candles – LOL) the longs got burned into submission.

Currently there are tepid signs of a possible floor but once again we have very little evidence. The lower 100-day SMA hasn’t been touched in months and I don’t see any other context that would give me an excuse to engage in either a long or short position. And if in doubt just say no.

2017-03-23_soybean

Soybean is a great example of a sideways range (orange) after a brief trending period (blue). I think you are starting to appreciate the pattern now, which incidentally is particularly pronounced on futures contract – even more so than in equities. The hourly panel here however shows us a Bollinger compression which suggests the possibility of a new trending phase in the near future. And frankly it wouldn’t matter if you’re using a 100/25 BB or a 200/50 or an 80/21. Whatever your lens is the range compression on the hourly panel is real.

The timing of course is the tricky part as usual. One approach I follow in these particular situations is to simply engage in small short term campaigns after a secondary hourly spike low (or 90m or 120m – it doesn’t matter) has been painted. A secondary spike low is one that is distinctly higher than the recent one. After entry I put a stop below the lower spike low and then burn some incense to appease the market gods 

2017-03-23_soybean_oil

Soybean Oil shows us an example of how to trade a possible major spike low on the daily. First up I usually wait for a bounce followed by a drop. Had I been around I probably would have proposed a long entry on either 3/15, 3/16, or 3/17. Once again the stop would have been below the major spike low, which goes without saying.

Had I missed out on those then I probably would have waited for a BB breach followed by a retest. I acquired this approach from the type of entry techniques the Richard Dennis and the rest of the turtles used back in the 1980s. To be clear Richard would have entered on the breach of the upper Donchian (similar measure) without a drop back down. That may have worked well back then but these days you get a retest in over 50% of the cases and your odds of success at that stage are pretty high. Again, something we should be plotting in the future.

Alright but I kept the best for last. But if you want to see it then it’s time to pay the Mole (to quote Scott) – I’m not running a charity here!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @dyellowflash – see my response here: http://disq.us/p/1h8c4sc

  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks. I like how you weaved in the use of Bollinger breaks here. I’m curious as to why you don’t seem to factor in RSI extreme prints to support an entry or exit?

  • Tomcat

    I continue to believe that any rally in Oil needs to be shorted. Also continue to be net bearish in Natty (remember my spread S 2017 L 2018).

  • OJuice

    Pretty strong signal on the zero this morning. Mole any insight you can provide on that?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, correlation patterns between time frames variously define for me likely objectives. In other words, price and volume clusterings supported in longer term charts make for relative volume holes in between them that I associate with price movement potential when the shorter time frames can support an entry.

  • BobbyLow

    The over supply in oil appears to be a big problem for any extended run for the Bulls but technically it remains a big mess so I’m avoiding it for now. I shorted Natty this AM.

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted US2000 now at Dow 20707.

  • Dyellowflash

    Noted and tks Mole.
    Hope u don’t mind the lengthy comment…
    Hmm… to be frank, i don’t use the 15m for anything useful other than to avoid getting ram by trains. I use the 4 hourly to determine my general sense of direction (my strategic viewpoint), the 5m to determine my precise entry and SLs (my mode of operations).
    The 15m works as something like a to decision making bcos normally being on the wrong side of a quick spike, chop, or dump can be 70 or more Dow points which can take out 1-2 attempts to enter a positions or worse. This is how i use the 15m and it works in avoiding being on the wrong side of a swing.

    1) For example for yesterday, after a big down day, as swing traders, we will only be faced with one question – is it going to be strong and quick continuation hence to chase or is it going to be chopping or retracement day hence to wait. In this case, I noticed that from Asia session to Europe session, there were 4 attempts to down, but the MACD did not turn at all during these 4 attempts. This is the underlying concern that stayed my hands. When market opens, the US2000 15m candles made 2 successive price expansion to the downside (marked by the 2 purple lines b4 the thick green line), so I shorted. This was followed by 2 green lines (green lines means bullish candles that instantly rebut any red expansion candles). If i use dotted lines, it means the rebutting happens after an hour, but when i used straight lines or thick lines, it means the rebutting happened right away (as seen both green candles expansion occurred after the red side made its attempt to expand). This is my cue that I am going to get wreck by a train very soon if i stay in shorts or if attempt to add to shorts. Hence I reduced positions by 60% the next time price touches the 10 day MA for 0.5R profits. This is in a very crappy nutshell, how i use the 15m to avoid getting wreck by being either on the wrong side or being on the right side at the wrong time bcos 15m is triple 5m, making it more reliable and 1/4 of the hourly, making it more responsible – and i can afford double confirmation – which means i commit to shorting when 2 purple lines showed up and i tried to get out of the way when 2 green lines showed up.

  • Dyellowflash
  • Dyellowflash

    Hence to sum up, although i took a position at Dow 20707 today to short, its basically a strong tracer fill (1/8) bcos of the MACD. My real fills will have to wait for 15m to give the approval and 5m to give the precise trigger and entry points. Normally, I am good enough with the 15m and 5m to usually take no losses on my main fill and to take 2-3 R profits per trade. The 15m chart helped me take 6R on Tuesday alone bcos I shorted at the first purple candle instead of waiting for two. This can be done bcos I made my decision based on consideration from the 4hrly which is my strategic picture and the 5m which gave me a good entry, hence the risk of entering with only 1 purple line is very small compared to the potential benefits.

  • BobbyLow

    I deserve to lose on Natty because I did not wait for the close of my candle before jumping in. This is one bad habit that I’ve failed to completely eliminate. This is just like every other bad habit in trading and this one is only remembering the times that taking chances worked and forgetting all the times that it was a bad move. The trade is still alive but definitely is in the mistake column.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I only have one bad habit… Lying about all the others :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL. What pisses me off Captain is that I put my rules in beforehand for a reason and this is to REMOVE temptations and thought processes that I’ve proven to be more likely wrong than right. So if I design something that says when x happens I do y, this should be all there is to it. This is only a relatively small trade but trying to outsmart my own system is stupid.

  • Yoda

    who the eff. talks to a zebra?

  • ridingwaves

    still L on IBB and AVXL..
    another stab to 2390spx up thru 4/6 is my take…with some small down gyrations…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners seems to be setting up….short term opinion….means nothing, naturally.

  • Dyellowflash

    As it unfolds, a bigger 15m expansion candle bigger than the bullish one beside it will form 1 purple and i will short instead of waiting for the 2nd purple in view of the 4hrly context. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6c77bf035bec812c99aefb3139544be249aefd064c163999cb9e40084890f63.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its possible you have a cognitive dissonance in there with a different process/internal program/motivation. Its usually then just a confusion of some sort that energizes the conflict. With myself, resolving the confusion obviates the apparent need for a rule that my processor tends to ignore anyway because of the confusion.

  • Tomcat

    I am L XBI & AGN

  • Tomcat

    Bobby, so are you saying you “jumped” in the middle of a red candle???

  • BobbyLow

    Anything’s possible Mark. LOL

    But maybe what I have to do is something similar to what has been suggested to prevent me from picking my head and shoulders up while swinging at a golf ball which is tightening one end of a rope around my neck and another between my legs. Then if I pick my head and shoulders up while swinging at the ball I would be sure to notice it.

    Or in this case, perhaps some kind of electro shock therapy might be more appropriate. :)

  • BobbyLow

    Even though I trade UGAZ and DGAZ, my trades are triggered off of an Hourly /NG Chart. I would have still gone short at the close of the 10:00 Candle (11:00 real time) regardless. But what I did was after seeing the downside begin to run following the 10:30 AM report, I made a rookie mistake, chased price, and bought DGAZ at $23.87. If I had waited for the close at 11:00 real time, I would have bought DGAZ at $23.15 so I began my trade already in the hole according to my system. BTW, back test after back test has proven to me that waiting for candle closes especially on entries is best. But occasionaly “jumping the gun” does pay off once in awhile but over time doing so is a net loser.

  • Tomcat

    This will still be a winner Bobby. Patience.

  • Mark Shinnick

    LOL. Well…we already have the best direct feedback mechanism with price itself….so if you really have to have something less abstract maybe rig a crusher mechanism software driven to the trade performance. :)

  • StockTalker

    yikes,

  • Mark Shinnick

    Appears to be ranging…for now.

  • Yoda

    here comes the 5th…

  • Yoda

    sweet!

  • BobbyLow

    It might be TC and I’m OK with it now.

    But one of the most important things that Scott taught me was to strive for almost perfect execution with no more than 5 mistakes out of every 100 trades or better. Mistakes are very costly against net profit and too many mistakes kill otherwise good results.

  • Tomcat

    Until we get the official (health care) vote count, this will be range bound.

  • Dyellowflash

    15m triggered a short while ago when a bullish expansion candle got KO by a bearish candle right away. I dont have any chart to show, my brokerage platform crashed for the past 30 mins.
    Sigh… 😉

  • StockTalker

    Big volume yesterday, huge blocks today.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What a confused bassackwards mess that bill; presently representing a acute broken Trump promise / big preventable mistake.

  • Tomcat

    I never let “good” be the enemy of “perfection”. Scott said a lot of great stuff, a lot of lessons, and a lot here appreciated him for that (including me). But then he followed it by being an ass to Yoda and GG et al. No system is perfect, period!!! Some are better than others, and there is no size fits all. Take Elliot Waves for example, I know first hand, of a close friend of mine who has made millions (big M) off that approach. Never worked me, for whatever reason. Anyway, I digress. To each his own. I think attitude is everything.

  • BobbyLow

    Please don’t misunderstand. I realize that no system is perfect and that’s not my point at all. What I was trying to say is that whatever system that is being traded should be traded correctly by the person who designed it and in this case that is me. Stupid mistakes are exactly that – stupid mistakes. We can not control what the market does but we can at least try to control the execution of what we do in the market.

    I’ve already expressed my feelings about EW. :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Sorry mate, I’m not tolerant of bad trading.

    Yesterday Yoda was mentioning a “getting short for a 5th wave down today”

    I think the tape today could hardly be construed as a 5th wave down.

    The dirty truth about trading is a tiny tiny fraction of us will ever make money from markets.

    There has never been anyone who has made money from Eliot wave, gGuys always come with these stories “I knew this one guy who made a fortune”, but no evidence… Or like Yoda yesterday “It *used* to work before bots”.

    A scant handful of participants here are profitable.

    So no, all opinions aren’t created equal.

    Instead of being butthurt about me shitting on your favourite stupid theory do the work to prove or disprove your own hypothesis.

    And Yes, I am an asshole 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    Bobby, one thing I notice is that when I make changes to my systems my mistake rate goes up. I’ve integrated a new system (3 months in) which is negatively correlated to my existing systems, and adds about 20 extra trades a month. My mistake rate went from 1 mistake in 50 trades 3 mistakes in 45 trades in the first month.

    Don’t be too hard on yourself, you’ve added new horses to the stable and expect it to settle down shortly.

    But if you are still making mistakes after 2 months there is a serious problem, and what I do is reduce size at that point until I can prove I’m trading well again.

  • Scott Phillips

    The problem with mistakes is lets say you have a pretty ok but not amazing system like for example my own. I have a long term expectancy of .11R per trade.

    And you make 1 mistake every 10 trades. Thats giving away .1R out of your .11R to mistakes.

    If you had a retail store and threw away 90% of your profit doing something stupid, you would fire the employee who did it.

    But we never want to fire ourselves, do we?

  • Scott Phillips

    Really excellent post mate :-) It’s been a long time since I read a post here and saved it for posterity :-)

  • BobbyLow

    I’m Ok now. I guess this is just part of my personality to feel my anger and then find it kind of cathartic to dump it here. :)

    I think what got to me was that the past 3 weeks have been pretty decent. I’ve had a total of 12 Trades that include 2 Open that are currently up about +.7R Net. And 10 Closed Trades with 5 Wins 2 Losses and 3 BE’s for net Bookings of +8.21R. All of these trades were done correctly.

    And then I fucked up this morning. But I suppose this is what separates us from machines although machines can malfunction too ie., Flash Crash. :)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Bollinger compression and price chop on the hourly is a great thing. I love the setups like your soybean setup

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Might join you guys soon

  • ridingwaves

    I like AGN to bounce and test 247 again…there is as resistance right above, if it breaks thru 300 could come into play…

  • Tomcat

    147 ???
    I might cry if that happens

  • ridingwaves

    I changed it, mistype….

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Riding SNAP, LVS, BIDU (added more yesterday), XOM, APA, TWLO, FCX. would like to see a bit more weakness to add to energy positions

  • Scott Phillips

    That is still an acceptable mistake rate. 1 in 20, the benchmark.

    And your expectancy is amazing right now.

    Personally what I find insidious is where I make a mistake and make a profit from it. Or when I become a little “fast and loose” with mistakes while my systems are printing money. I don’t know why, but for me it seems easier to “just knuckle down and do the work” during a rough patch, but I get a little sloppy when things are going exceptionally well.

    When you have a chance I’ll show you the new capital commitment module Mole and I borrowed from our friend who works for a multi-billion $ hedge fund in Japan. It’s an extremely good idea and should cut drawdowns dramatically

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well thanks for nothing!! 😛

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I like the miner short. I’m waiting for a tap of the upper Bollinger and will prob take a stab

  • Tomcat

    “Not being tolerant of bad trading” doesn’t mean you have to an a*hole about it.

    I thought of responding to your gGuys (even though I have no f*in clue what that means) but then I realized there is no value there.

    So with that I wish you (really do) the best in whatever (system) it is that you do especially since your interests don’t conflict with mine.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey how do you do those magnified side panels?

    (ducks)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Aaah – volume holes. I should cover those on a special occasion.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry I just came back after running errands. I’ll post my views on the top so everyone sees it, okay?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ojuice asked me about my thoughts on the Zero. Sorry I was gone for a few hours running errands and such. Okay, so the early launch was the bulls dipping their foot in the water as
    there was already a floor pattern in place last night (but kind of fell apart late in the session).

    What’s happened since was the first shake out attempt below VWAP which was recovered. Had I been here this is where I had entered again with a stop a few ticks below the spike low. The odds at that moment were pretty good and I think they still are right now. Sure there was an attempt to drive out the bulls but look at the little divergence on the ZL – it got bought fairly quickly. The onus is on the bears here to drive the tape back down. Until then I would look for long entry opportunities during VWAP retests.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5082abb660bdcb326283c8ee7f990797e7fb88d12d19ffbe20aee88ad4b5753b.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good blow-by-blow stuff Mole.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “and such. ”
    I hear traveling is good the for the gander.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility appears to be hanging higher for a longer than usual period.

  • StockTalker

    Bears gaining strength and confidence, see how it close

  • Scott Phillips

    You want me to tell you your stupid ideas are ok, that Yoda’s stupid ideas are ok?

    That everyone is entitled to their dumbass opinions. Uhhh no. Stupid is stupid.

    Look at my history over the last 8 years or so here. I can’t think of one person I called out on their bullshit who didn’t blow up eventually. Amotka, Kudra, a pile of others over the years.

    Compare and contrast with say, Bobby, who not only listened, but took his ass kicking and kuckled down, did the work to become a stone cold pro. The equal of real institutional traders in every respect.

    Go, right now, to http://www.slopeofhope.com and there you see the end result of a community which places a lot of stock in respecting everyone’s opinion. After all they take their cues from one of the losingest losers ever to lose on a losing trade.

    Tim Knight contacted Mole and I last week, really pissed off about me mentioning him in a post. How dare I use the line “where the internet’s 3 remaining bears huddle together for warmth”

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a vol perspective, appears to be continuation of the move that went before.

  • Ronebadger

    I just read a Scott comment…he mentioned SlopeofHope, so I went there for sec….and there’s our old friend, SpringHillJack…remember him?…I was just going to post a recent chart of his, and there was SHJ’s post.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1703/media/7868f1cb-cbfb-4035-815d-827717ef25f8

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sounds like a religion of some kind :)

  • ridingwaves

    U have a good 6R campaign on bs callouts

  • ridingwaves

    hit the zoom feature, I made the arrow big for your volcanic island eye hiccups
    https://s22.postimg.org/e4797zdb5/Zoom_feature.png

  • ridingwaves

    nice channel….I think he still pops in from my vague memory

  • Yoda

    or it could also be a retest of the low, before a bull move. Tomorrow will tell. My bet is on more downside.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for this tape reading post. And good call on not holding the Long ES overnight. Looks like it was dumped from the highs into the close just now. (Started dropping right when GOP announced that they are going to delay the healthcare bill vote that everyone’s been waiting for). So that dump could just be an outlier and SMA level still in play for a long.

  • Scott Phillips

    A good guy, and a good CHARTIST. But that’s a long way from being a good trader.

    What the subjective “classical chart guys” don’t generally do is keep records of how often they are right or wrong.

    Over years and years, bias comes into play and they believe their own bullshit.

    One classical chart guy whose head is screwed on right is Peter Brandt. His win rate is 50/50, he doesn’t think charting has any predictive power at all, he uses it solely to identify inflection points.

    Now thats a classical chart strategy I can get behind.

  • Yoda

    Another one sitting on the edge of a cliff. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading day.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ac5062f2bc3e8f4a4c82a07a7b0722dd1258912dad51600f6a1af515fdc5da3.png

  • Scott Phillips

    The noise to signal ratio in financial blogging is about the same as in politics 😉

    I don’t give myself a pass either. I traded 3 years of my life all day every day (and posted the setups here), a system which I publicly trashed last week as not being an edge.

    Our brains are insidious the way we are set up to believe complete crap. You, me, Mole… we can all talk ourselves into the most outrageous bullshit.

  • Scott Phillips

    Agree :-) An inflection point.

    My trading plan for tomorrow. If ES breaks the daily low, be short with a stop at the daily high.

    If NQ (stronger) breaks the daily high, go long for a 1R target, stop at the lows of 2 days ago.

  • ridingwaves

    we all talk ourselves into bullshit….fixed it for ya….
    I have held my beliefs too long on individual setups and paid thru the ass….or wallet

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of other Market Blogs, before I came here, in 2009, I spent a couple of years at the Fannie Mae Chat Room over at Investor Village. I found my way to that room because at one time I had over $100,000 in a combination of Fannie Mae Stock and Options. I was also a big fan of Gartman at the time who told me what I wanted to hear and is often mentioned here as someone to fade. Back in 2007 or so, Gartman banged the table on Fannie as a Strong Buy all the way down to delisting. But that’s another story.

    I have fond memories of a few of the people that I used to chat with over there. But I’ve got to say that for the most part that site was a good place to visit and complain about how bad and unfair the Stock Market, the Government and every single thing there was that prevented us from making any money. It was a good place to go to commiserate with each other.

    ES was kind of a Bear Camp back in 2009 but with a big difference. “Continuous and repetitive” bitching about the markets and government was frowned upon. I actually remember Mole telling me in so many words to shut the fuck up one day. My feelings were hurt but I got over it. Then as ES grew, so did I. Eventually I realized that the only thing preventing me from making any money in the markets was me. Since that time, it feels like I’ve been on a continuous learning curve that I don’t think will ever end nor should it.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Today’s tail should have attracted buyers. Agree, tomorrow will be telling.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Once again the bulls dropped the ball, which ain’t good. This raises the possibility if lower lows tomorrow. Let’s see what we get overnight but thus far I don’t see any mojo or clear direction.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a85a3f4a1da17632724d31d4c3633bef1ea5735b8e7721963662a040ce51e42b.png

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    You missed it RW, he was fucking with Gerb…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “I actually remember Mole telling me in so many words to shut the fuck up one day.”

    Mois? Why I would never use such harsh language 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, didn’t work out though. I think I’m going to slow it down on the ST for the next week – too much RV.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Got a 1 day buy signal on SPY. Went long at close and will sell at latest close tomorrow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I need to agree with Scott here. Listen guys – T.K. is proud of his ‘teddy bear’ image in that he’s kind and ‘let’s all voices to be heard’. He also rarely responds to any system related questions or calls people out on their bullshit, even if they continue to lose their asses. And thus the Slope has transformed itself into a social club for people who really do not follow any structured trading approach. i made a tough choice years ago to not go in that direction although I probably missed out on tens of thousands of ad sponsor revenues.

    You can’t have your cake and eat it too. Scott and I both only have so much time per day. IF we have to walk on eggs then what’s going to happen is that we simply stop posting or commenting in Scott’s case.

    Your choice guys – I rather get slapped in the face than to run down a long time wasting rabbit hole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Scott is much tougher on himself than on other people guys. Grow a thick skin folks – you’ll need it if you want to succeed as professional traders.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Only wise men who gave up on people. The benefit of talking to real zebras (or dogs for that matter) is that they don’t talk back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was it in a nutshell? 😉

    What I was attempting to figure out if there is a simple ruleset you can express in perhaps four to five bullet points and then back test over the past few years.

    What gave you the idea in the first place?
    Why do you believe that MACD readings have any predictive value?

    Sorry for the late response – my plate is always way too full and especially after vacations.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @Dyellowflash:disqus see my response further below – sorry for the delay.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nothing wrong with using different time frames for correlation – my concern is that you accept the MACD as having predictive value and I want to know why. Have you ever statistically tested this in any way? Or are you using it because it’s mentioned in common trading books?

  • Yoda

    It did attract buyers in the first half of session (Zero signal was strong). Those same buyers are probably a bit nervous right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he speaks truth. unless the pump is turned back on, I have a theory.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5bf5c6c9790bfec74e8c15267c5db9e6d063fd97e5811098833b0bb2af1d8faa.png

  • Yoda

    Your theory is awfully similar to an impulse wave down
    There you got trolled. 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love it when I see large exhaustion spikes in either direction. Those are statistically great places to get exposed, especially if there is more technical context that gives participants a buying (or selling) excuse.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Totally agree.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thought you’re going to the beach to swim with dolphins.

    (Scott is a bald hippy)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He has it coming.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Your statistical point isn’t lost on me, to be sure, but I remember believing as a ignorant neophyte in just that type exhaustion on the Friday before that next Monday in 1987.

  • ridingwaves

    Mole has made ES a safe place to hang out….the guy in this article would steal your bread to feed some doves, good read….
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-03-23/-bro-i-m-going-rogue-the-wall-street-informant-who-double-crossed-the-fbi

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s right; safe to fuck up…safe to learn…safe to succeed.

  • Scott Phillips
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I prefer to run the long con 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – just one day after talking with Ridingwaves about Internet outages my main connection went dead an hour ago. I can get my emails and check a few things via my mobile connection but don’t have enough bandwidth to do anything charting related (my trading systems are are all remotely hosted).

    I called Movistar and they have a total system outage that’s affecting the center of Valencia. So it may be a few hours until we get our connection back. I’ll put something together as soon as I’m back up and running.

  • StockTalker

    Have add to my /ES position, notice the upper BB on the 5 min. Stop 2356

  • ridingwaves

    I ‘m getting this nagging feeling that the health care vote is a proxy for a move. I know I’ll take some flack here but it would give great cover for a move to 2280…if not passed…strike against the donald kind of reaction…his ultimatum could backfire

    I’m Long too, moved my stops up

  • OJuice

    I laughed out loud at the “signature move’ part.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Internet is still out. I’m working on a more educational post in the interim.

  • OJuice

    I closed my long form 38 this morning. I’ll look to re-enter at 30 or lower if the vote takes it that way. Otherwise I’ll be standing holding my dick… Ultimately I think once this consolidation has run its course, we will continue higher.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Same here….there is always that sort of plausible excuse for broad public consumption – spun any way suiting whatever the outcome.

  • OJuice

    The curse of Tenerife followed you home!

  • Dyellowflash

    Ok… the Zero chart posed by Mole is worth a good look. On the hourly, it looks like 75% of that big down move is matched by very little zero participation and 25% is matched with a lot. This means that they are a lot of late comers who shorted at the lows in the future’s mkt. That might explain why prices jumped a lot since yesterday’s open – other dudes who had access to something similar to Zero were thinking of burning some shorts. But price got nowhere despite that big spike on the hourly zero with that small up move and ended the day at the low of day. This makes ES 2345 our line in the sand? Let’s see if there is any significant candle actions after the opening 1.5hrs of crap chop time.

  • Dyellowflash

    Did anyone manage to get a fill at ES 2345.67?
    I gotten Gold at 1234.56 a few days ago!
    Took me 7 tries to get it filled exactly on the dot :):)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    This guy has muy grande cojones? And he’s only one guy. How many others just like him ya think are out there?

  • BobbyLow

    OK, Stopped for -1R Loss on Natty Gas.

    Still riding Silver. Hi Ho Silver Away. . . :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously…

  • Mark Shinnick

    As near as I can tell, the volatility scene is settling into some support, bears absorbing some short term entry loss in the meantime; the bear argument still plausible here but by now getting some crowding.

  • ridingwaves

    damn near makes me want to just apply more funds to my own business…..
    what lies beneath this market is greed and that will not stop until it bleeds everyone it can….

  • ridingwaves

    can’t believe the FBI didn’t figure he would be taping them…..that agency is looking inept more and more..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    I agree

  • Dyellowflash

    2 hrs to go. Got to see some decent down candles or the short side is off for me as well.

  • Dyellowflash

    I am fully short now at 20705 Dow.

  • OJuice

    What exactly is the bear argument? Meaning a meaningful break of the range to the downside?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still seems like a good sand line an hour later now…with some average true range filter and other assessment tools. Personally I’m flat …for the time being.

  • Dyellowflash

    I guess… I AM THE BEAR ARGUMENT :)
    Am I?

  • OJuice

    No kidding. And that for all intents and purposes, it was all an elaborate entrapment program to catch “bad guys”. I would think that the defense in a few of those cases could reach out to Gentile to get their guys out of the charges.

  • Dyellowflash

    For anyone who is keen to short, best range is Dow 20707-11, with a tight 30 pts SL or any pair of contracting green candles on the 5m timeframe if risk on. Target is 20647 and 20617.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm great question going to the soup of trading with a mix of objective and subjective criteria; its just never the same assessment for everyone. What concerns me most at the moment is recent crowding in the bear camp (evidenced by recent sustained local volatility range) given the nearly-invariable principle that the market efficiently attacks the majority. Given that crowding, bears can easily see a clock cleaning exercise whether or not this all resolves into a market decline.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, for me personally the ‘bearish case’ flags when I see clear technical evidence I can point at that a reversal has reasonable odds of occurring. I usually back that up with charts and analysis 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    You are a Great American :)

  • ridingwaves

    exactly….one big cluster you know what to catch smarter thieves then them..