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Living Inside a Broken Clock – Fri Dec 4, 2009
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Living Inside a Broken Clock – Fri Dec 4, 2009

by The MoleDecember 4, 2009

by gmak

BofA raises $19 bb in the largest US equity offering since 2000 – lots of USD available for paper pushing financial parasites which add no value to the productive capacity of the nation. Meanwhile, a German industrial company struggles to get even 2/3 of the EUR they need through a stock offering. Japan scares world with a rumour that they might start selling Treasurys and the FED doesn’t even blink. It’s not a bluff if there is no chance of it ever happening – BoJ should play more Poker online. Meanwhile, Bernanke wishes he had pictures of more senators with shaved gerbils in hand, so to speak. Canada somehow creates 79K jobs (multiply by 10 for the US equivalent) while Global trade collapses slowly on itself and exports dry up – all of this in the domestic services of EDUCATION. How’s that for a long term contributor to GDP? Welcome to the broken clock.

Yesterday’s close was startling. After the Ramp and Camp that was the day, we found ourselves in an alternative universe where there was no ramp into the close. Looking at the 30 min chart sure shows a tired market with selling into any rally and rip.

Notice how the fall was supported by the pivot at 1099.50 – and how the BUY setup count is only at 6. SHort term TD Pressure suggests it needs to be released with some sideways or upward movement. Now, I’m writing all of this without having looked at ES yet this AM. I wanted to put up fresh impressions, and quickly. BIG NEWS is coming at 8:30 and it looks like I may not post on time.

Looks like ES gave a rising flag overnight – so there was no recovery in spite of the great BofA issue and the possibility that Bernanke could be reconfirmed. Watch ES = 1097.50. IF crosses downward with definite purpose, then TD says 1093.75 is where price exhaustion might occur. Of course all of this changes once the open happens and volume comes in.

SPX daily shows a red bar on higher volume. TD Pressure is headed back down – but hasn’t gone below its last low, yet. As well, the dashed green line still lingers as better support than Tiger Woods alimony. SPX still has failed to get back above the long term ULTRAVIOLET trend line even if each day puts in a new high – the center cannot hold.

 

After the news from Canada, there should be no suprise that only 11K jobs were lost in the US. It’s a miracle! Praise Saint Bernanke and the Apostle Tim! Meanwhile, the USD is holding its own while the JPY starts to spiral down the toilet. EUR is close to flat but the CAD and GBP are soaring. Long live paper profits and paper shuffling!

TNX is going through the roof! To me this says that next weeks debt issue may be under some pressure. JPY continues to fall, and GBP is seeing some profit taking.

Looking at the DAX, I see green in Utilities, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Telecom. Looks like the day-by-day sector rotation continues. I would expect the same in SPX, and that spells DISTRIBUTION. But who is the giant evil squid distributing to?  I’m limited in my screen capture right now, so the pretty pictures will have to wait.

FED’s Balance Sheet

Reserves from banks in the FED system shrunk in the week ended Wed Dec 2, 2009, from 1,165.5 Billion to  1,119 Billion.  Not a big change, but it says that banks deployed $46 billion or so elsewhere. Meanwhile, MBS is indicated as unchanged WoW at $852 BB.  You can see here yourself:

This week: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/

Last week: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20091127/

Factors supplying reserve funds only increased a total of $2 billion. The factors reducing reserve funds rose – with currency in circulation falling – primarily due to something called “Supplementary Financing Account” which sounds ominous. This account is part of the “Deposits with Fed. Reserve Banks OTHER THAN RESERVES” account. I’ll leave it to those with more time than me, at the present moment, to figure out what this is, as there is no footnote of explanation.

This B/S is where all the squid ink comes from – so it behooves us to understand what is going on.

FX

EUR has fallen off a cliff and is testing its S2 pivot at 1.4980.  GBP has fallen a least a cent as well. But the CAD hold strong at up almost a penny. Given how the TNX ramped up, I can’t believe that this is flight from risk. It looks more like a lot of money pouring out of foreign assets into US assets. If that is the case, look out for margin pressure on the USD carry trade. I’m sure that many here will be writing excellent explanations for what we are seeing right now.

Do you think that the US poplulace will take to the barricades next time the Jobs number comes out, if it has a huge revision downward?


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • CorporalCarrot

    Some decent short covering on the USD in advance of this number. Caution is the watchword.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Great quick and dirty post. Well done.

  • Nightwind

    USD/JPY looks bullish

  • CorporalCarrot

    Matey, to continue the debate from the previous post, while I agree that news can sometimes be irrelevant, Sept 11th type events prove that given a certain magnitude, news does matter.

  • Gerbil_gold

    dirty indeed. I am not shaved, nor ever intend to!!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I agree and differ with Mole on this question. But your questions show how hard it is to trade news or predict how the market will react given your assumptions.

  • Nightwind

    /es….holy shit

  • Schwerepunkt

    Big spike only -111k jobs.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I second that sentiment. Holy Kaka.

  • Schwerepunkt

    To paraphrase the ex-Mayor of Washington D.C. and substituting Robert Gibbs for the woman in the room: “That bitch set me up.”

  • Nightwind

    The White house pulled out their smoke and mirrors yesterday

  • bluetrader

    If the market sells down at some point today on that number it will tell us everything we need to know.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Some potential shorts, based on being 30%+ over their 20 day moving average (using finviz.com to screen). The first four are all China related, any comments towards the fundamentals would be appreciated. Volume isn't very big on some of the Chinese ones.

    CAAS
    CAGC
    TSTC
    SEED
    SOMX (a few days late on this one, but still a little room)
    CYTX

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yeah, we thought it was smoke, but it was really a fire-hose inserted you know where.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Heres a turnup for the books, look at the EURUSD, its tanking while Futures are up

  • Nightwind

    LOL,…..I closed out of TZA after hours last night…..it felt too comfortable which never feels right

  • Schwerepunkt

    Could this be the long-awaited decoupling? Futs are still rising and Euro is still dropping. Very interesting.

  • shortcover

    maybe in this case 'good news is bad news' rates may have to rise sooner, market may be tempered?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Decoupling alert. EURO down strongly, ES futures up strongly. Any opinions?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yes, fade the equities. I'm shorting here.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    dollar stronger, equity futs stronger..is the correlation about to end?

  • bluetrader

    Gold is puking on it's shoes.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Maybe the better trade is to short Gold and commodities?

  • insite

    i'm with you. short all in.

  • tradejane

    DAX zero to hero in 3 seconds. TecDAX lagging. Bought back my index short at first resistance. Will wait for the bank short.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Added major short position at 10,490 on Dow. Stop 10,550.

  • bobthehorse

    I just went more short at 1112

  • CorporalCarrot

    The currency boys know the score here.

  • Gerbil_gold

    check out gold price before and after sept 11th, an eight week blip. i'll follow EVIL mole for now.
    😉

  • CorporalCarrot

    Dow FSB has come in to 10,470. Moving stop in to b/e.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Prediction: today ends up red, and the CNBC boys are left scratching their heads.

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD still down v. CAD, related to Canada adding a mooseload of jobs.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    or dollar ends up, dow ends up and screws..dollar shorts (selling because equities up) and equity bears (shorting cos dollar is stronger)!

  • Gerbil_gold

    confirmed. let's see if the dip buyers show up, or have no cajones' today.

  • shortcover

    from Real Money:

    NFP: -11K, instead of an expected -119K jobs lost….that's what an estimated report will get you. After the ticker-tape parade, and the procession has past, watch for the revisions that will follow that one! Accepting that labor is said to be a lagging indicator; the Government must have been hiring, because the private side of the U.S. economy (ADP report- non-government) on Wednesday posted an increased number of lost jobs (160K against an expected 140K). Not to be a non-believer, but the NFP report has a history of creating enough hot-air to raise a lead baloon. The closing price today will be interesting, because it looks as though we have had more movement in the last 10 minutes that in 4 full days of 24 hour global trade this week.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Bob, I'd be interested in your take on the USD surge WITH equities. Meaningful indicator of a paradigm shift, or not?

  • bluetrader

    I'm also intrigued by the DXY…a +.40 move in DXY normally would crush the market. This is going to be a really interesting day to watch. Too bad I have to head out to work. Good luck.

    -Dave-

  • goldpackers

    Those horns are even deeper now. Mortally wounded. Have no clue! Thought 1080 or 1140 but wanted 1080. NADDA

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bob yesterday you said that bear markets end on bad news, and bull markets end on good news. Could this be it?

    I've no doubt that people will dissect this to kingdom come and there will be revisions. I mean, if ADP was -170k which means the government must have done an awful lot of hiring. But still.

  • Gerbil_gold

    as a bear, i've been looking for a blowoff top. could today be the start of a multiday/multiweek top?
    it would line up with Dec's predictions, and a new year Crush.

  • JiangxiDad

    RT @DougKass: wow factor on jobs report, but gun to my head we have seen the days highs.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I dont' think equities will hit even yesterdays highs on this. DYODD but look at the move in the dollar. Its fuckign seismic.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • goldpackers

    Looks like the pattern of lows on the 2nd day of the month continues….. 9-2 10-2 11-2 12-2
    Highs have come between the 15th and 21st.

    Back in my cave. Wake me if we trade back below 1100

  • CorporalCarrot

    Holy crap in the time it took me to write that it jumpes 70 ticks!!! The short covering must be unreal.

  • texpresso

    i do not follow any of these, but i am long YZC and it is up so much that i expect a correction soon, have my stops tighter than usual

  • Gerbil_gold

    Looks like Mole won't have to escape L.A.

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX.Z09.E&v=i

  • texpresso

    good point, and i will add, what about seasonal hiring? if it is 100K light, as expected, the net is… not esp good

  • goldpackers

    Curious as to what the raw materials stocks do today. Where is $ index?

  • Gerbil_gold

    yest buys? you must have been in a rush.

  • gmak

    POST UPDATED. REFRESH PAGE

    Sorry for the quality of today's post. I'm rushed a bit and running late. Time for a little Yoga to get the kinks out.

    Does anyone seriously believe the jobs number?

    Have a great day! I may pop in later on.

    My final word is to pay attention to DXY. It is strengthening and equities are going up. THis suggests money leaving foreign assets to come into the US risk assets. Notice that GOLD is getting pummelled. I guess the CBs still have aces up their sleeves to deal with the rising price.

    Money jumped out of the 10 year (and I would assume other maturities) of the T-bill, and I would suggest that this is going into equities.

    Now, I feel comfortable that the final act is beginning for SPX. It shouldn't last more than a month or two.

    Look at the YEN and the EUR. Risk is back on. The squid is distributing.

  • shortcover

    right…kneejerk reaction always wrong…but we may still end up 50 or so dow points by close…who wants to go short over weekend in this kind of tape?

  • texpresso

    geez short, i am not smart enough to know what it means for the day lol

  • Nightwind

    To EW'ers; is this the C wave? My spx wedge target 1024

  • texpresso

    holy crap! did you guys see what this did to DJ STOXX? safe to say this will be a strong green open, checked BH quotes, they all gapped up as well

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's a repost from Wednesday:
    “Living Inside a Broken Clock – Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2009During the last four days the spx index has displayed an impulsive wave count in my humble opinion with the possibility of a one day pullback to 1098 which should resolve itself with an ensuing new high and continued strength for the balance of the month – but only the spx knows its true intentions. Currently 20% long but fully hedged”

    OK now what: (I'm just an idiot dunce, who the hell really knows the future) but yesterday I stated early morning weakness for today, Friday, followed by new highs -let's wait and see.

    I'm currently 55% invested, 15% in TZA (triple short etf) and will adjust the hedge as needed.

  • goldpackers

    As Sgt Schultz fondly said…………

    I know nothing nothing!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Gerbil_gold

    where've you been the last 40 minutes?? smart as a bowl of oatmeal. ;-D

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    quite strange how ES is still holding up yet eus/usd has fallen down past the 1.50 mark.

  • centerline

    Interesting. Attempt to gap up over resistance but USD does not confirm at all. Too bad I have a meeting to go to at 9:30. I might have to show up a little late to watch the fireworks.

  • Schwerepunkt

    “One or two more months of these types of reports and we could see a rate hike sometime in the first quarter,” Cardillo adds.

    — Taken from a DJ report on the jobs report.

  • texpresso

    i had to clear the SNOW in the yard so the gerbils and hamsters could get to the oatmeal

  • bobthehorse

    What it means IMNSHO is that the dollar has probably bottomed. I did say a while ago that I expected a long period of rising $ and rising equities which would be driven by the relative strength of the US economy, caused by the $ devaluation, i.e. the US has exported its deflationary pressure and now will be better off than Europe in particular. The key question is whether the $/Equity correlation can break without causing Equity weakness. I don't think so as so many risk trades are predicated on a weak $ that there has to be some sort of messy unwind. Probably the key metric to watch from here will be the US 2yr yield. If that rallies, equities will go down. If not, the market thinks the Fed are going to allow a semi-hyper-inflation and equities will go berserk to the upside sadly. Price action of Gold suggests the former though at the moment.

  • texpresso

    i see a flight from quality, opening long CFSG, ADCT, BRCD & JRCC

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Hey GMAK, I look forward to your mornng charts and commentary and send you big thank you. Living in a broken clock indeed.

  • marcT

    I really think that this is because the market thinks that the Fed will have to start raising the interest rates therefore making the EUR/USD pair fall. I remember the fed saying that they will start withdrawing money from the economy by raising interest rates when the jobs start to recover.

  • bobthehorse

    I think it was Mole who said that. But it's probably true. Markets can still go up in this environment but normally they start falling 6 months before the first rate hike as we exit 'the sweet spot'. So it's a correction rather than a new bear market. But have just posted a comment saying I think price action at front end of yield curve is going to be the key here. On balance I think we are at or close to medium-term high.

  • goldpackers

    Where will Investor Int bear/ bull % go now!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    I'm watcing the 30 year, Bob. It took a major hit this morning. Not good.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'd like to see a retest of 1.5 by the Euro get rejected before shorting equities. We are in spitting distance of yesterday's high, and the mythical 1122 on SPX/ES. Maybe it comes to pass but in the most discreet of ways.

  • bobthehorse

    30yr yields rising is going to be positive for equities at the moment as equities are a nominal asset class

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • centerline

    Wow. That is disturbing to say the least.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “yesterdays buys” indeed
    as I posted yesterday on my blog
    “Short term we have multitude of buy signals completed right into end of day.”

  • WTFed

    Nice point. Prob the Fed itself through its trading arm.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Kass still has money to trade?
    Bobby gave it to him? Wait…Bobby has not got any :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Did you say go to jail? Uh, this is the USA. Only blue collar-types go to jail. White collar-types very occasionally go to federal country clubs.

  • WTFed

    Gap fill?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    that is the way I see it
    -11 vs -111fcst is BS and the end of the game with rates

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “shitting on the little guy”

  • Publius Federali

    I think these unemployment numbers could signal that we are very near the top, but let me hedge as usual and say that this market can do anything.

    Here are my thoughts. The market is the sheeple's economic gauge, thus to keep us pacified the government had to make the market rise so that we would not panic while horrible economic numbers came out.

    Now we have a “good” unemployment number, and those numbers can be trumped up to pacify us into believing things are better. Thus the market can drop. The drop will be explained as a simple correction and all the talking heads and pump artists will point to the better economic data as why we should not worry.

    Stock prices and economic data solely serve the purpose of the elites to manipulate their slaves right now. Isn't it incredible that the Clown In Chief just told us the other day that we might see unemployment rise, right before a “great” unemployment report? Did he not have access to the numbers? Goldman did.

  • goldpackers

    If we break 1117 then expect 1132 at least

  • rikardo_kurvio

    usd/jpy is flyin.

    but i'm temted to short some ES from 1117s

  • Schwerepunkt

    Why get political? Gibbs is only a spokesman. He would not have access to the jobs numbers. I think he mispoke, but who really knows. The rest is supposition. And don't forget almighty Goldman blew it the last time they made a prediction on the GDP.

  • rikardo_kurvio

    it's possible cause my target for upside NQ is 1827 area

  • texpresso

    straight out manipulation. several of my spec longs were driven into the dirt late yesterday, up 4-6% today, yeah, some a–holes just made a lot of money

  • Schwerepunkt

    Starting to look like a euphoric trend day. Powering up now.

  • texpresso

    no they didn't, remember, when the number was revised they turned out to be correct

  • CorporalCarrot

    Re shorted dow at 10,500 (got stopped out at b/e) and SPX here at 1,117.1

  • Nightwind

    Big short squeeze……..bears are fueling rally

  • Publius Federali

    Of course it is all supposition. But do you have a better explanation for what is going on? Must be the fundamentals right? The market just coincidentally tanked when we needed TARP and Stimulus passed right? The American public is ignorant because they go to public schools run by the government. Thus the government can take advantage of that and they do. These are the last gasps of a dying country whose elites are trying to steal all they can before the pitchforks and torches come out.

  • ablebonus

    A big problem for bears is Dow Theory. If IYT closes over 73.57 we are looking at a Dow Theory confirmation. REITs looking at a breakout too. I bought IYT to hedge and will have to get rid of some shorts if we close over EOD.

  • goldpackers

    Interesting FAZ is well above yesterday's low SO FAR. If that low breaks then new lows. GS looks 172 MS 33

  • gregn

    Interest, inverse correlation between dollar and equities has never been this extreme.

  • Nightwind

    CNBC is trotting out the bulls

  • Schwerepunkt

    Short ES 1117.75. Slightly early.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice man, strange hat though

  • amokta

    So much volatility, in all shares – up one day, down another, and i dont just mean a little bit, but big swings – What is going on?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    this blows omg

  • Schwerepunkt

    If we close the gap today, and USD skies, that will be a sign of the highest order.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “i love the smell of napalm in the morning”

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    The only thing I'm watching is the Euro and that trendline…

  • Nightwind

    RUT hourly…possible IHS w/ neckline at 601.5 with breakout

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Dollar carry trade is going to close really fast.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Just a personal opinion, but since yesterday was a trend day down, I have a hard time believing today will be a trend day up.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Sorry, forgot to mention I'm just talking about financials trending, not the SPX in general.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Factory orders coming. probably subpar. market expecting a zero reading.

  • derekste

    short SPY Dec 112 Puts… just in time I hope 😉

  • Carl V

    nice findings, hopefully this break will not confirm…we will know soon enough

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    The only questions is which stops will get crushed first the carry trade stops or the equity Bull/Bear Market stops?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yep. fucking hell though this came out of left field.

  • rosocecasita

    My Sentiment: FUCK!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I think I will wait to see what the Euro does here, It's consolidating and looking like it's going to take another leg down… the leg that will take it below the trendline….

  • texpresso

    0.6% gain

  • marcopolo101520

    what is the error and noise in this data? 5-10%? No idea, just asking

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yeha, i agree with that. TICK chart also falling into the red now too

  • weasel_whisperer

    Interesting that it came in better (.6 vs expected .2), but the market is down slightly since it was released…

  • marcopolo101520

    what is the error and noise in this data? 5-10%? No idea, just asking

  • derekste

    and down we gooooooo… 😉

  • marcopolo101520

    $ carry trade is the culprit?

  • texpresso

    IMO the contraction in services (non-manu) announced yesterday is more likely to effect the LEI than this jobs report or stimulus enhanced manu number; dumb money excited about jobs, smart money will trade the services number, uh, maybe 😉

  • Nightwind

    Dow…same as RUT….possible slanted IHS forming. Dow target if it breakouts = 10775

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW we just touched the MA13 on spx:gold (something I considered indispensable before any further drop) .94

    if we drop without crossing 95 it's a refusal of the lower BBon the 104,1,618

    it would be nice

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    rates are going to rise because unemp is improving and ben said he would raise rates when that happens. carry trade unwinding fast

  • CorporalCarrot

    I know this sounds crazy dudes, but I think this could be the best shorting opportunity right here, right now.

  • Tronacate

    LQD broke lower trendline

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Bear market rallies start on bad news, end on good. Could this be the “sell the news” event were looking for?

  • marcopolo101520

    bad for bulls I assume

  • marcopolo101520

    thinking the same

  • insite

    topping process

  • marcopolo101520

    better out sooner than later

  • Tronacate

    Well, LQD and the es have been in lockstep……..but I don't know the current correlation

  • Cypherd

    Exactly my line of thinking. News is best at the top, and worst at the bottom.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Aren't h & s patterns reversal of major trends formations?

  • insite

    doesn't sound crazy at all. i'm with you, man. cool as a cucumber.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    in the meantime I'm getting my ass kicked lol

    VIX holding up support and popping now though.

  • Bart7

    yep, just emailed this to a friend;
    but like we were talking yesterday, bear market rallies tend to end on good
    news so maybe we're almost there?

  • marcopolo101520

    one word for hot sensations down there behind: desitin

  • Tronacate

    IYR trying to fill the gap…….I imagine people are thinking “if jobs are so much better, why aren't people buying more”?

  • dollar

    10:02 AM October Factory Orders: +0.6% ($2.1B) vs. a consensus that orders were flat. Factory orders had increased 0.9% last month, its fifth gain in six months. Ex-transport +0.5%. Shipments +0.8% vs. +1.3% prior. Inventories +0.4%, reversing course after 13 straight monthly declines. Comment!

    9:54 AM The upside surprise in nonfarm payrolls today is the second-biggest this year (in June, expectations were for -520K jobs and the actual number came in at -345K), and among the biggest expectations “beats” in the past 10 years.

  • marcopolo101520

    amazing

  • Tronacate

    Just happens to coincide with the Bernanke hearings……..this is getting like the outer limits

  • Nightwind

    Yes, but this is an inverse h&s. The best reversals are bull patterns that reverse. If the IHS fails, that would be very bearish.

  • CorporalCarrot

    European update. As I posted earlier today, the FTSE and DAX are still con-confirming.

    On the payroll news, both superspiked like everything else, but have still failed to reach even previous closing highs, let alone intra-day highs.

  • bubble jeopardy

    I read not too far back that a big revision down is coming early next year because of the over estimate this year of jobs added by the birth/death model. It seems the over estimate was approximately 800,000 jobs.

  • insite

    it appears we have completed the topping portion of our fractal here. if you look at the last few SPX fractal tops (10/21, 9/23, 8/28), they all had a melt-up high, followed by an intra-day reversal w/ a red close. i'm betting on it.

    also, IMO, the BLS stats will be proven to be total bullshit.

  • marcopolo101520

    confirm, heard the same, few weeks back check maybe Mish's blog

  • Tronacate

    Wonder if there will be a selloff to cover dollar shorts?

  • marcopolo101520

    long bonds still selling..will end up in equities for prelude of a selloff

  • Carl V

    Curious that Gold and Oil have moved in exactly opposite direction, this is quite unusual – I guess one of both will have to give up…

  • marcopolo101520

    gold for fears now gone
    oil for economy, now unemployment going up (-10 vs -10.2) more people on the road of recovery more gas

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    let's see… 12 hours ago a crazy hamster said

    hamster roadmap

    gold down to 1100 or 1150
    s&p down to 1070

    why? bpspx still under ma13, spx:gold could use a touch on the mid BB, gold has a meeting with one of those 2 values

    GOLD DROPING… CHECK
    SPX:GOLD MID BOL TOUCH… CHECK

    Could we please have our equities drop? PLEASE?

    BTW it would be nice for a drop from 0.94 to 0.84… just my 2 cents

  • Nightwind

    I'm not an EW tech, but this could be the final c wave up. That would explain the IHS's forming on the indices.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    both, but oil first

  • marcopolo101520

    maybe bonds selloff?

  • Gerbil_gold

    i read & replied on that comment.
    gold star for gerbil!!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES strengthening again as Euro is weakening.

  • mtvernon

    Time to go 210% short

  • tradejane

    DAX so close but yet so far. Tecs still underperforming. UYG resistance at 5.70 area held. Added a German bank short to my DAX short. Will resume praying position.

  • Tronacate

    maybe so…….probably small and mid caps will be the stars…….flight from safety

  • marcopolo101520

    looks like a bearish flag on SPX is in the works, not another fake on plz

  • Schwerepunkt

    Fed buying more agency securities at 11am.

  • marcopolo101520

    who said that?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know, I saw it, just stating that we could use the drop in equities… just to make it right

  • marcopolo101520

    ….resume praying position…you need the right priest…too

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice gerbil

  • CorporalCarrot

    You know what is the biggest sentiment change I've ever seen folks!!!!!!!!!

    This is the first time I can recall in the entire bear market rally, when BEARS are actually shorting into strength, believing it has to fade.

    On virtually every other occasion I have seen, its been bears shorting AFTER drops, praying “that this is it” and hoping for the drop to continue. Of course at the point they believe its breaking down its actually close to reversal. At least today we are selling high, which I think is significant.

    I stand by my earlier comments. I think, crazy as it sounds that we could end down today.

  • tradejane

    I had a small bet going on how long it would take before someone would remark on that last sentence. 😀

  • CorporalCarrot

    I wonder if in years to come this will be known as “The Tiger Triple Top”

  • marcopolo101520

    so I should run for my desitin then

  • Tronacate

    I saw it…..but trying to stick it to trading……

  • marcopolo101520

    GS beating the market today, short covering? or a sign?

  • Tronacate

    from “God”?

  • tradejane

    I'm appropriately relieved.

    I do have a couple of US-longs just in case but the TecDax has been a pretty good indicator so far and it never bought this rally.

    Why are Solars doing so well, does anyone know?

  • goldpackers

    How do you know there were just three?

  • marcopolo101520

    china pumping in renewables

  • goldpackers

    now what does the $ do on sunday night

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    gold down 40
    lmfao

  • marcopolo101520

    another bet here? saw that!

  • CorporalCarrot

    What does this chart pattern normally signify?????

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=10&b=5

  • texpresso

    my spec longs are up on above ave vol, too early to short stocks IMO

  • bubble jeopardy

    I know this is too long term for most of the traders here, but on a monthly basis the $INDU is working on the right shoulder of the mother of all head and shoulder formations.

  • Gerbil_gold

    status quo – but lookie the volume, 2X normal.
    IMHO – short covering!!!
    if highs don't get higher, i can see why we have cucumbers on this forum. 😉

  • CorporalCarrot

    hehe I think I was looking for “classic broadening top” as the answer 😉

  • bobthehorse

    it would be truly remarkable if we can have a big $ reversal and no impact on equities.

  • Gerbil_gold

    for a second, i read classic broad. he he he.

  • Tronacate

    FWLT really weak today

  • Nightwind

    RUT could make new high for the year based IHS, but RSI would have to really take off and to confirm move.

  • Tronacate

    Yah….I'm really watching the RUT too……..

  • Gerbil_gold

    from yesterday:
    Uh – yeah – let's review their track record…
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-
    $20 says there pumping – so they can dump. they've done it before with other commodities.

    who took my bet? I want my $20! 😉
    (FYI – i'm not prophetic, just lucky)

  • insite

    uncle buck is on a tear. equities are toast.

  • Tronacate

    Mother of all short squeezes coming on the dollar…….

  • insite

    and it will be a beautiful thing to behold

  • Tronacate

    I thought $DXY had bottomed……sure didn't expect this though

  • Tronacate

    Here we go…..come on bucky

  • insite

    DXY broken above long trendline from june

  • Tronacate

    FWLT is just dying here

  • Tronacate

    One of the BERKMEISTER'S shorts

  • Gerbil_gold

    excellent news, check.
    dollar cover, check.
    equities toast & buttered, check.
    are the bears out yet gentlemen??

  • WTFed

    STU saying a close above 75.88 signal low in place. FWIW

  • fuw

    That depends on how liberal you are when drawing that line – my final line in the sand is ~75.75. Lost of technical damage done here though.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Today could be hugely significant if the indices can't print new closing highs after that news.

  • fuw

    It would be nice to see spx once again get under 1110, after these news.

  • marcopolo101520

    Think about this for a minute. yesterday Zh was running a spculative story about Ben callind his go(l)dBoys to prop the market for his Senate confirmation. Dodd is saying, he's the best we coudl get to deal with the crisis, maybe they manufacture right now another crisis to confirm him once again. Squeeze the shorts in the dolar, crash gold, take the markets down, banks are already done with recapitalization and TALF crap (CO got warrants sold) so they can bet on the down move, time is just right, then rinse and repeat.
    Just heard that from my secretary.

  • Tronacate

    11/03 swing high of 76.82 would be a safe bet…..the trendline changes considerably on that pin

  • bubble jeopardy

    By the headlines today, I sense the bulls singing the lyrics to “I can see clearly now”. But I have to wonder if it is the bears who these lyrics really apply to.

  • Scoops

    New EWFF out. What a perfect selling opportunity today. Added January IWM 60's. Like I said on Slope, what better possible news could there be than the NFP. Just goes to show that news does not drive markets.

  • standard_and_poor

    This morn leading stocks haven't kept pace with spx or russell 2000 therefore
    now only 5% long. I'm growing doubtful of new highs into Dec.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Update on Dow broadening Top pattern:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=10&b=5

    Its resolved in textbook fashion so far. This would be a wonderful end to this bear market rally it its so.

    I cannot imagine that the dollar can move by 2 big figures and the markets remain unaffected.

    A greek sovereign default would be nice however, to give that little bit of an extra push to the EURUSD :)

    Any news bob? 😉

  • bshah

    guys,
    Is Priceline good enough topped ? I am so tempted to short it to take my revenge. ha ha.. opinions…

  • Rush23

    Maybe Mole was right after all… all we needed to kill this ridiculous rise was a shot of good news. I sure hope so.

  • Gerbil_gold
  • bobthehorse

    Nothing too much going on yet. spreads still wide but not as much as last week. Greek banks have access to ECB funding until Dec 16th. The big test will be what happens then.

    Personally, I feel physically exhausted. Everything is in place but you could have said that 2 months ago.

  • Nightwind

    Revenge is a dish best served cold….I would wait FWIW

  • marcopolo101520

    saw that, agree.

  • gsavli

    looks like toast so far.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm actually pretty cool, but I haven't overextended myself previously. So strangely I felt quite calm shorting today at the highs.

    Ooh here goes the dollar again. Come on 1.4850.

  • gsavli

    Any today's short is a keeper over the weekend.

  • texpresso

    out of all my day longs, in TZA

  • I_got_Prechterized

    whoa, what was that big spike down?

  • gmak

    Probabilities of a FED increase rose with the jobs data. If interest rates are rising, so are discount rates. That means that future cash flows are worth less in today's money than just yesterday. Equities should fall – but the implied increase in cash flows is likely offsetting the probable increase in interest rates.

    Anything depending on low-rate USD is going to be sold. First by the most nervous money (which we saw this AM) and then by the rest – but only if in fact there is supporting data from many sources for the economic recovery.

    I think the biggest risk to equiites is that the liquidity will dry up. It's pretty hard to justify printing USD when the economy is in recovery mode (if it is).

    I'm still watching the CAD which is quite volatile this AM. THis is a resource stock and an economic recovery story based on world wide demand = manufacturing. Yet all the jobs seem to be service jobs.

    Something is not right in this story. Le's see if money flows back into the 10year, now.

  • gmak

    SPX pivots:
    R2: 1123.91 = where many have said SPX will die on the rocks. It is around my target for the Pareto-rule (80/20) on SPX index increase based on MBS money used (total of 1.25 Trillion by March, approx $840 bb used).
    R1: 1111.91 = 1112 by any other name
    Neutral: 1105.30 = where SPX is testing right now after a 6 point dump in 5 minutes.
    S1: 1093.31 = would probably put a scare into the bulls and the most nervous would lock in their profits.
    S2: 1086.70 = remember this number as the huge waves in the liquidity pools settle down and equilibrium tries to get re-established

  • Tronacate

    Banks will be crying the blues when all the cheap money is gone…

  • Bart7

    Will the Dollar/Yen steal Christmas, that's the big question for me…
    http://yelnick.typepad.com/

  • Tronacate

    I still don't believe those employment numbers one bit…..

  • mtvernon

    Oh AAPL, can't hold the 50 dma guy?

  • ultra

    Er, you mean “stocks have reached a new, permanently high plateau”, shurely?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Steak Tartar anyone?

  • Carl V

    Looks like the day close will be down again – that will make a strange pattern on daily: 2 huge side by side red candle at the top, each starting at approximately the same high point and closing much lower – rejection (of the top) pattern if close end of day confirms lower.

  • gmak

    Here is my DXY chart so you can see that a valiant attempt was made to get above the previous high. The two brighter horizontal white lines are the barriers that need to be breached for the trend to have changed. IN case you believe that USD shorts will be scrambling to cover, just think of how far the USD has fallen, and how much profits they already have – I don't think that there are a lot of nervous shorts out there – only the ones who came in below DXY = 75.

    http://screencast.com/t/NjQwMGUxYTMt

  • Tronacate

    Kudos to all who shorted this AM

  • Gerbil_gold

    SPX 1104? wow, sliced thru 1110.

    Day 14, the escape of L.A. has been temporarily halted.
    the vermin are restless, they can smell meat.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Gap fill imminent. Lets get red baby!!! For once I predicted it :)

    I suppose every so often a blind squirrel finds a nut :)

  • Tronacate

    Nice call corporal……enjoy the brazil nut

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you are in portugal i assume? i’ll post a european link.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/files/2009/07/quaker.gif

  • centerline

    The broken clock is right twice a day!

  • bobthehorse

    It's not often you see two downside reversal days in a row (not that we have that yet). Not even sure if I have ever seen it.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • centerline

    Sure is odd. I haven't seen anything like this that I can recall. Really looks to me like serious concern / indecision.

  • Tronacate

    Man this could rally be building some momentum here……equity unwind to cover dollar shorts?

  • Carl V

    more than 20 points drop on ES – becoming serious, and now oil and gold on the same (down) trend): all profits from pre-session are erased

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    ding…ding…ding….ding….

  • Tronacate

    HERO getting hammered…….

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks the only problem is I don't have access to the TV so can someone please tell me what the bulltards on CNBC are saying about this.

    Update on my broadening top/megaphone pattern on the DOW. Its broken down underneath now:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=10&b=5

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    self reinforcing cycle….

  • Carl V

    silly thought but could it be BAC selling billions of equities to start reimbursing its debt ??

  • Tronacate

    negative stability……

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Nice call on the 10Yr, SFSG on the 30 min

  • Tronacate

    Maybe they decided they couldn't survive on just trading profits……..BAC is no GS

  • omelette

    XLF still + for the day

  • marcopolo101520

    that was my nut! auch.

  • CorporalCarrot

    A little bit of a warning folks, EURUSD is showing some signs of stability on the 1 minute chart.

  • Tronacate

    DXY pullin in a tad here…..

  • CorporalCarrot

    Some more perspective……………………..if this morning hadn't happened, we are merely half an spx point down. The uptrend is still physically intact, notwithstanding the major reversal warnings.

  • marcopolo101520

    and bonds down all day, DavidD mentioned something of KD yesterday, but KD said long time ago, watch for the day when everything is on sale, maybe not today but I would not be surprised to see the start today and continuation next week.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    (I understood the joke)

    thanks

  • marcopolo101520

    never tough about it! smart!

  • gmak

    No. Equity is down due to the implied increase in the discount rate for future cash flows. The prob of FED increase leapt with the jobs number.

    DXY is strengthening due to most nervous in the carry trade – you can see it in EUR assets and gold. Once they are covered (the last in the USD carry trade), some stability will return to risk prices (the equilibrium once the waves in the liquidity pools settle down).

    Unless DXY gets up above 76 – I don't see an ongoing rash of USD short coverings. Unless SPX breaks the support at about 1086ish (see my post on pivots for the exact number) then another wave up is possible.

    The cheap USD from the carry trade were converted to either GOLD or foreign assets – the whole point of a carry trade is that the USD will continue to weaken and interest rates stay low. The player makes profit from the FX and from the higher return in the FX-denominated assets (or USD international assets such as GOLD and non-PMs).
    Cheers.

  • marcopolo101520

    you know what girls say, once blak never come back

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    AHAHAHAHAHA lmao

  • Tronacate

    Thanks

  • marcopolo101520

    yeah but what was the up move? shorts covering? what were the smart guys doins? selling? why?

  • Gerbil_gold

    exceeding 250 comments, make it stop! 😉

  • marcopolo101520

    big time selling, Carl V might be on something

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, now let's see if we can drop (as mentioned earlier this was just getting back to where we were)

  • ultra

    Yes. Don't get too excited. Bullish divergences all over the place at the low. That might be playtime over for today.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Don't worry I'm not. Yesterday I was at pains to calm people down after late day selloff. So now I'm dong the same. My advice from earlier still stands.

  • ultra

    Fade the first move? That was a quite a nice one.

  • gmak

    BAC offering was very well subscribed.

  • bobthehorse

    something has changed today, correlation breakdowns are rarely smooth and I think there is a good chance you are on to something. Key will be if we can close below 1080 on ESZ9 tonight. I know it sounds mad but my fundamental models still suggest 1000 by year-end!!! That would be nuts.

    Can't believe I am now in the money on my 1103 short as well at the 1108 and 1112. Am walking away now. Hope to come back Monday to some blind panic.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well that too, but on the previous page, I wrote the following

    “Another crumb of comfort for the bears. S&P cash hit 1,100 for the first time on 19th October. Based on yesterdays close, that means the market has gone NOWHERE in 6 weeks or more. And yet it feels like its been on a tear. Momentum is clearly waning.

    It feels unstoppable however because of people chasing moves, which is why I went out of my way to warn people yesterday, and its worth repeating again.

    All we can say for certain at this point is;

    1) We had a decent pullback from yesterday's highs…………..but
    2) This was only to be expected after the huge runup from Novembers lows…….and
    3) We are still technically in an uptrend, with no significant trendlines or support levels broken…….so
    4) NOTHING HAS CHANGED

    My advice for people who don't have any shorts already on above this level is not to chase this move here. This, in my opinion, is the number one cause of bearish exhaustion. This might indeed have been a top. In fact, I have been posting my S&P rounded top chart for some time (hopefully rather than optimistically). But we will not know for sure, until a number of other things happen. So chasing it now is likely to lead to disaster. We might follow through, but the odds favour that we are still in an uptrend until confirmed otherwise so you risk getting trapped in the sell low/buy high mentality which has contrived to have bears tearing their hair out for the last two months, even though I've illustrated that the market has gone nowhere in that time.

    Keep your discipline, wait for another test of the highs before shorting again, or a significant breach of a key support level.

    Do not jump in here in no mans land.”

    Thats where I still see us, in no mans land. If you managed to have the balls to sell the open, bring stops in. Don't chase it here.

    I suspect a psychological turning point has passed but one can never tell.

  • texpresso

    out of tza 11.55, good enough

  • Carl V

    could it be that we are now on (4) of (5) of (C) – thus implying a still slightly higher high to come – or was (5) of (C) of (P2à just market today?
    I am not an EW specialist so asking for opinions here.
    http://screencast.com/t/NTNkYWE1M

  • CorporalCarrot

    Here we go now with the excuses:

    “People are taking advantage of the strength in the market to close out positions to lock in performance for the year.” – the take on the market plunge from Jefferies' Art Hogan”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful people

    we just touched the upper BB13,1.618 on the spx:gold
    it's a good setup for a fall… or for further UP (and this time it can be in nominal)

  • goldpackers

    that may have been huge abc flat and now back to 1217

  • Gerbil_gold

    this post is useless with out pictures. 😀

  • gmak

    Thanks. It wasn't really a call – just a warning where to look. Right now I am seeing SPX having a hard time getting through 1101.50 on the 5 min chart. This is a DeMark short term reistance point -it is a sthort term watershed movement. If we get turned back, I think we will break the S1 pivot. If we do a back and forth, then 1106.50 is where momentum will start to drop off to the upside (with the pivot at 1105.30 slowing it down somewhat. Guess what happens after would depend on thow the stops are stacked up above the pivot at 1105.30 (SPX). 

    As I type, I see SPX going past the 9 pMA (which is in a bearish cross) Still, the TD signs are that this pop up will not last and could likely be turned back at the pivot.

    Cheers.

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't have real time and just made a poo poo with a calculator

  • Tronacate

    RUT putting in a nice bearish candle on the daily…….see how things close out.

  • gregn

    Dollar is flying — has the potential for a great short squeeze.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Just bought some UNG….. Nat Gas Baby!

  • Tronacate

    Tell you what……the 76 gmak talked about is not too far away now

  • marcopolo101520

    assuming praying position in 3……2…..1

  • goldpackers

    meant 1117. break of 1195 now would seem negative

  • gregn

    I would bet my bottom peso that there are tons of stops at 76.01

  • Tronacate

    Quit tempting us

  • Gerbil_gold

    understood.
    hey, how did you come about with BB13 1.6 fibonacci delta? does it have a good track record?

  • Carl V

    Beware of this UNG s..t – it has been performing havock and is at lowest low while Nat Gas had been rising for month. SGY is better I believe. But good luck, I was thinking of Nat Gas today, or even coal !

  • Tronacate

    Yeah…..really……it would zoom right through……..

  • Tronacate

    You load 16 tons and what do you get?…..

  • gmak

    DXY has failed to hold its HOD above the previous high. This level is key if USD is too have any momentum to the upside.

    The cynic in me says that all this is engineered to get Bernanke confirmed.

    In any case – watch the DXY close for signs of what might go down early next week. I think a close above 75.6 would do it. A close above 75.88 would be stellar – and might give the USD shorts some cause for concern.

    If any news comes out that suggests that the market perception of an increased probability in rate hikes sooner is WRONG, then equities will resume their march up.

    Today seems like a “just in case” type of day -ie. squaring off of positions until which way the wind is blowing can be discerned.

  • marcopolo101520

    engineering gmak! like all the market since march!

  • gregn

    I posted this picture yesterday, I made a BB buy signal for ToS and used it on /DX, as you can see, there was a buy signal in it: http://screencast.com/t/ZTYzZWY0

  • Tronacate

    That's what I thought with the jobs number……Bernanke the imaginary hero

  • bobthehorse

    bulk of that was done end oct, early nov

  • marcopolo101520

    1092 in my line of sight
    maybe will be hit today

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Seems everybody hates it but you know it's the ugly chicks that put out, no offense to natural gas etf's of course.

  • gmak

    Quick update on SPX before I take off for a while (hot chocolate and therapy massage beckon):

    SPX has come back to the TD momentum point at the 9 pMA – but if it fall trough 1101.50 and closes a bar below – then SPX is in retrace mode in the short term. If the current 5 min bar closes above that, then 1106.60 is the target.
    See you on the other side of 12:25 EST.

    Have a great day!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    specialy in real values (:$gold)

    look for yourself

    but it gets much better when you watch the 104,1.618 and 104,2.618 at the same time

  • marcopolo101520

    That's Obama, when he speaks everybody listens and mountains turn around like economy

  • Tronacate

    lol…….

  • texpresso

    RINO continuing nasty beat-down, thanks CD

  • marcopolo101520

    when SPX painted 1096.65?

  • Tronacate

    RIMM about to fill gap…..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Thanks again for every post & comment gmak!

  • Gerbil_gold
  • gregn

    Well SPX filled gap and reversed: http://screencast.com/t/NWJmMmE0YW

  • marcopolo101520

    these guys are good: “Goldman Sachs manipulators orchestrated “the finger” pattern on
    Friday :) Rare Elliott Wave pattern”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    anyone for a 1 hour long scalp?

  • Gerbil_gold

    104?! what kind of number is that? why not 50/100/200?

  • marcopolo101520

    is begining to look like Christmas

  • Gerbil_gold
  • marcopolo101520

    divergences are back, time for thank you moment

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    4_X 13

  • gregn

    Not sure if anyone mentioned the current broadening top formation that is currently being created: http://screencast.com/t/YmM5OWZiN2It

  • raised_by_wolves

    GLD's important lines.

    Weekly:

    http://screencast.com/t/NDU4ZmE0

    Daily:

    http://screencast.com/t/NmU2OTNk

    All I will say is that reversals tend to happen at the lines. I've chosen my line. Choose your own damn line.

  • Carl V

    Hi Gregn, nice findings. Megaphone are also continuation pattern but hopefully not at a top, rather in the first stage of an uptrend, in wich we are not exactly… According to Thomas Bulkowski Encyclopedia of Chart Pattern, you can tell when the broadening top is over: when you have what he calls a “partial rise”, which is now on going then reverse back. Hopefully this rise will be partial…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    do you like it?

    do you see why I said what I said yesterday?

  • marcopolo101520

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fbi-special-ag

    SAC Capital? What are they into? Short list to get longer.

  • gregn

    If it's going to do a partial rise, I would say the gap would be a great place for it to begin to fail: http://screencast.com/t/MTY5MGU2NTkt

  • Gerbil_gold

    yep.
    I'm trying to step over “numbers investor” to value investor. this helps greatly, thanks!!

  • Carl V

    By the way: on your chart it looks like a gap could be filled around 1108…a little bit above the 50% mark…will see!

  • raised_by_wolves

    $SPX:GLD is the cyan line. Notice how it bounced off the 50% fib line.

    http://screencast.com/t/NTA0YjViNj

  • fuw

    To me the DXY looks like consolidation before pushing higher.

  • marcopolo101520
  • Rightside_ot_trade

    searching as we speak…whatcha got?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, you know my opinion

  • marcopolo101520

    leverage

  • insite

    agree. looks like an ABC.

  • Bart7

    Bunning vs. Bernanke in case ya missed it;
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    test it also on stocks but do one thing

    begin by stock:$gold

    do a fork with a 2007 top and use rsi to find the highs and lows of mid 2008

    then do the fork on the nominal using the nominal values but the real dates

    have fun (and tell me about it) (e.g. i see aapl probably having topped and wanting 130)

  • texpresso

    kinda funny, every time i forget to set a stop on M Guru it gets hammered. its 100% reliable, think it could be a new trading system?

  • gmak

    Look at the 30 min chart, and that view is less certain. It's hard to say if it is a peak or if we will see a bullish flag – still too early. EUR 3 min shows a bearish flag – but these often break up on the EUR. Right now, there is only NY driving the FX trades. I wouldn't expect much movement except for Reindeer Games being played.

    Looks like the fall and crawl in on for most currencies, and the ramp and camp for the USD.  SPX is running into that resistance at 1105.30, but 1105.60 still beckons as the TD indicator where the sellers come in.  Again, how SPX resolves will depend on where the stops are located (although it would be foolish to have stops on for a day like today – to put positions on.  )

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, and 50% is too much for a zigzag and too little for a flat or a wave 2

    beside, count the waves, looks like 1, 2, i, ii, iii, iv, v

    that's why I wanted .94 (or .98) before a final drop to .84 or a double bottom at .91 or .88, ,82 , whatever

    then a 1.0 and down again

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    was talking about spx, but more than halfway through now (i hope)

  • gmak

    If you look at JPY and how much it has fallen today, one could make a case for the shift in the carry trade from USD (where economic news suggests future rate hikes) to the JPY (where the BoJ is suggesting a sizeable QE). Remember that the carry trade in JPY implies conversion to non-JPY currencies that are expected to appreciate (EUR anyone) and investment in those currencies' asset classes – usually fixed income but PMs are a good substitute in these unsettled times.

  • gmak

    If you're interested in a short scalp, go short between 1105.40 and 1106.60. put the covering stop above 1107.22 (SPX 34 pMA);

    The 9 and 23 pMA are starting to squeeze together, but the risk looks to be to the downside, with the target being 1100 (SPX) initially and 1093.30 ultimately.

    BTW the 1105.60 that I was rambling on about is really 1106.60 – my eyes are betraying me today.

  • gmak

    Looks like I took too long to type my comment out. The scalp is underway. SPX is now below the 9 pMA with some support at 1102.20; then around 1100, then around 1093ish.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    had any further luck? did you try $gold or something else on those parameters?

  • Tronacate

    DXY….completed abc on 5 min…….now should hit stride on the meat of a 3rd wave impulse up

  • PRSGuitars

    Whats the deal with RUT outperforming so much? sorry, just got to my computer…

  • Tronacate

    Risk appetite is my take….

  • fuw

    I agree that we are at resistance on a longer timeframe, but when viewing this fast compressed move I see strength in the chart. Critical levels to hold here though.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    brace yourself for another $20 drop on gold

  • Tronacate

    Cmon bucky…..break through 75.6

  • CorporalCarrot

    EURUSD going down again. This signalled the LOD today, could it again predict an intra day top?

  • Gerbil_gold

    yeah, i stuck an oil stock in there.
    the RSI's show the “truth”.
    not sure what you mean by “fork”.

  • gmak

    EUR bounced off of the LOD again: 1.4872; Still looks like a bearish flag with very low volatility. Low volume hibernation. Not likely to get a big move either direction given that it's Friday.

  • Tronacate

    DXY really getting set to bust higher here……

  • marcopolo101520

    say please. Remembers me of Al Bundy…

  • Tronacate

    Puleeze

  • rikardo_kurvio

    Sudden Anal Terrror for the bulls today :)

  • CorporalCarrot

    I trade the spreadbet markets here and I just printed 1.4871 :)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Oooh yeah bucky here we go!!!!!!

  • Tronacate

    There needs to be more parity with the euro…….it's good for all…….especially european tourism business…….

  • PRSGuitars

    Anyone notice that the time to short was 10 am EST this entire week?

  • Tronacate

    With this rise in the buck…..equities should be crushed…….eod it may happen

  • insite

    holy greenbacks, batboy……
    biggest green daily candle on dxy since june

  • CorporalCarrot

    1.4856 bid.

  • insite

    the wheels are coming off the bus

  • gmak

    Explain to me the sequence of events that leads to equity price drop if USD strengthens. Be specific. You have 1 hour at which time all pencils must be put down.

  • Tronacate

    I'm not totally sure of the DXY count……but legs look like we're in the middle of 3 up…….lengths look the best just eyeballin it…..

    PRS any thoughts….???

  • Tronacate

    You are intellectually brutalizing me…….should I get pissed off and never post again???…..lol

  • centerline

    So far so good. But, if we can't get down and stay down today below the 1099 and get a green close on the VIX, I am going to rotate my Dec puts out into January.

  • gmak

    Here: This assesses the correlation much better and succinctly than I could:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/icap-correlati

  • centerline

    Where's Mole today? and Berk?

  • Tronacate

    I ain't saying another thing…….
    Plus I'll have stray marks on my paper……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    under the chart you have a “link” for ANNOTATE

    click it, it opens a java window, go play in there, NOW

  • CorporalCarrot

    I see 1.4850 bid!! come on, if we break this we are at 1.4820 in no time.

  • gmak

    It's all academic now as the flag is breaking down – but not aggressively yet.

  • Gerbil_gold

    don't know, but i'm sure it's EVIL.

  • Tronacate

    You didn't tell I could use Cliff Notes or their equivalent…….thnks for the work gmak

  • Gerbil_gold

    ah, been there done that.
    I'm not big on forks and regressions.
    parallel channels, you bet.

  • gmak

    If you did get in on the scalp, you might want to take 1/2 profits here, tighten the stop and let the rest ride hoping for that 1093ish target.

  • Tronacate

    Berk's been absent for awhile…….just disappeared.

  • Gerbil_gold

    don't know STU, but man – i'm startin to BELIEVE.
    75.6 as of post.

    [STU saying a close above 75.88 signal low in place. FWIW]

  • Tronacate

    short term update from EWI…..prechter

  • Tronacate

    a little ii(?) here on DXY……then more upside……we'll see

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I've said it before. I'll believe in this “bull market” when equities and the dollar can rally together. Today is not so convincing.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    what did he say? 300% short now?

  • Tronacate

    I'm sure…..at least 300%…….I'm pawning my wife right now for more margin

  • Tronacate

    Here comes the 3 wave meat

  • Tronacate

    Well the sovereigns loaded up on gold at what may be the top for the shiney stuff…..interesting.

  • Gerbil_gold

    And Goldman's sold it to them. !@#$@#$@#

  • Tronacate

    Of course……..someone has to pay retail

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and in a couple of years you'll regret you didn't buy

  • Tronacate

    You might be right…..you see a hyperinflation scenario?

  • Gerbil_gold

    dude, if ya only knew.
    😉

  • Tronacate

    Why buy gold when there's GOOG???????

  • Gerbil_gold

    I sense the sarcasm.
    time to bail, hamster?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG:$GOLD&p=W
    MACD rolling over on GOOG ratio chart.

  • yudhisthira

    If this pans out, then I'm going with the triple zigzag rally from March to today's spx high. Gotta believe in something. Until the eod snapback.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how many times have you heard me say 1968-81 lasting 1.6 as long?

    and talking of gold at 5k t 8k?

  • amokta

    What happened (been asleep this afternoon). last time i looked dow up 130+,jobs galore, prosperity had returned, but now dow back down
    by the way pRECHTER (dec EWT) says triple zig-zag is the max (no quad zigzag) so he is still placing his bets on P3 starting. Also advised traders to hold shorts. Also suggests gold likely to undergo violent decline (at some point). By the way, he only ever said '200%' short, whatever that means, initially placing half the risk capital down a month or so ago, and now the remianing half (in case markets went up, which they have/did)

  • Tronacate

    PRS…….RUT getting back into line

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    loaded earlier? unless you have balls of steel or good pain treshold, you went early unconfirmed for that being a good entry (unless it was 2000)

  • Tronacate

    IYR needs to crack lod

  • bist

    NO Support at 112!! I added more puts this morning! I'm shocked at the drop in gold!

  • Gerbil_gold

    :)

  • bubble jeopardy

    This looks like a pretty good three wave correction in the unemployment numbers.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/observingguest/

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    try it as i told you, it's easy and… enlightning

  • Tronacate

    Intersting…….kind of like the dead cat bounce in housing prices….

  • Tronacate

    What's that SHH?

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    Of all the lamest signals in the world to work, My Gold short at 1216 –WORKED!
    Click here to see WHY it worked
    btw, this method back tested 6 years, with a fair amount of success.

  • bubble jeopardy

    yep, just a big fractal dead cat bounce from the lows in everything that was impulsively declining I suspect

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    check out any stock on :$gold with these BB and then use forks using RSI to identify the points

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    http://screencast.com/t/NmQ0NjBjY

    On a good market day comment count takes care of itself

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, I'd start shorting GOOG until 475 right now

    crazy hamster

    p.s. keep track on that one

  • marcopolo101520

    how is a good market day defined?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    have 520 put-ipitos

    BTW – my grand grand father came to Russia from Spain back in 1914

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    for local bearish blogs busted breakout is a good day, right? :)

  • Carl V

    Reversion to the mean, very smart and thanks for sharing.

  • Tronacate

    Yah…..I have seen you say that

  • K.I.M.

    it could get ugly for amzn if it breaks trendline on amzn (15min). Well, isn't it ugly enough for today :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not me, yesterday I mentioned drop to 1150 seemed certain BTW it's about to bottom this stage, prepare for gold retrace

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    close but no cigar 😉

    many did from spain and portugal, as I mentioned no jews left here but almost everybody is of jewish ancestry

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, it about bottomed here, should now retrace and so should equities, this will be their attempt to breack this fall

  • http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/ The_Grim_Reaper

    I saw this headline on Yahoo and wanted to comment “Stocks Gain, but off session highs on rate angst.” This just shows how dumb equity traders are. They're selling on the possibility of high interest rates, but everyone who knows anything about the financial markets knows that rising rates are bullish for equities. Think about what happened when the fed started CUTTING rates back in October 2007. Was that a good time to be buying stocks?

    Stocks Retreat on Rate Angst

  • Carl V

    I justs quick tested your system on AMZN: is at the exact same deviance from its 200-EMA than it was at the end of the Internet bubble in 1999, just before it plunged from 113 to 60 in a few weeks, then to 5.5 few years later. Again, great from you to point out that what is simple will always work!

  • Gerbil_gold

    depends…if you are buying or selling. god bless the Free Market!

  • Tronacate

    DXY……wants 76.01…..

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • Gerbil_gold

    75.81

  • Tronacate

    Thnks for the chart Daviddt

  • Tronacate

    75.93

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and try this to see why I think it will be only 1150-1100, if it goes to your 1050 it falls below that to the MA104 or even it's lower 1.618 BB

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • Tronacate

    link?

  • Gerbil_gold

    IMHO, XLE is at major multimonth support..

  • marcopolo101520

    is there something like inverse cup-handle? Or maybe I have to turn my monitor again?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    already posted

    say what you think

    BTW my triger was a “straight” line in a long long time chart in excel, the +25% seems simpler

  • Carl V

    Really liking this bearish divergence of the RSI(14) on a daily chart, especially after such an exhaustion and a doji candle

  • shortcover

    icing on cake…a red close today…

  • Nightwind

    I smell a short squeeze coming

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't count on that, min 1105

  • Carl V

    Who knows, Greece and other countries are perhaps starting to sell all their gold and equities to avoid a historical bail out; they wisely decide that such high prices in equities and gold are a unique and unexpected bargain to quickly take their profit. Let'say it is just Greece and, say BOA, that are doing that today. But then this might perhaps give the same idea to other near-to-bankrupt organisms or states in the coming days/weeks. Domino effect?

  • bubble jeopardy

    The volume on gld sure makes a statement.

  • Gerbil_gold

    1150. Ding Ding Ding, give that man a cigar.
    DOW EVEN (at post)

  • randomwalker

    Hi all eviltraders (and otherwise)

    Cross-posting today

    Two evening stars back-2-back on DJIA daily – quite bearish

    CandleWave friends make the call..!!!

    http://www.aweber.com/b/1viVQ

  • shortcover

    i'm going w/ lows of the day to round out the week…i have some BGZ calls to write for april and i want the premium as high as possible…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Gold bulls be warned. Check out this weekly shooting star! On the far right

    http://screencast.com/t/N2YzNzY4ZDgt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    for normal ocasions a monte christo n4 will do

  • Gerbil_gold

    oh goodie! it's on sale! ….almost 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but the 1150 was supposed to also have a drop in equities, a close at 1105 or above gives room for a gap up monday and spx:gold .98 here we go (and I'd prefer a drop from .94)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, from here on it's GS wave if it ramps

  • Gerbil_gold

    ..as much as I despise crossposting – this is a good one.
    where's Mole? feeds a steady diet of soylent, and then when ya really need it.
    Boom, PURE Evillll.

  • Nightwind

    RUT breaking up out of triangle

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    write 3X short ETF calls for april?

    are you sure?!?

  • Gerbil_gold

    Dang Hammie, ya out comment me 3 to 1. <waving flag>

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tell it to the golden GS boys, 15:30 ramp job in the making

  • randomwalker

    Yes PURE evil..like GS taxed at 0.6 percent last year on record profits..doing Mammons' work..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    told you so…. the brace yourself

  • Tronacate

    Well……might as well plan on Bernanke again…….dollar up ……..market up………employment up……..what more could we ask for?

  • labdude

    A little humor at Tiger Woods expense:

    http://www.thebostonchannel.com/slideshow/enter

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    that someone breaks this ramp up job before 1110 and we close at doji?

  • Gerbil_gold

    8:30pm – almost yer bedtime. 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    past my dinner time.. probably leaving soon and comment later

  • bist

    Sold my puts. Will re-enter on Monday. No selling pressure. There's no follow through on both the buy or sell sides

  • Tronacate

    Hamster……As soon as you can snatch this alfalfa pellet from my hand…….you are ready to face this evil market…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    that's not an alfafa pellet
    you're not richard gere
    i'm not a gerbil

  • Tronacate

    lol…..

  • Tronacate

    At least it wasn't like Kobe Bryant where only the first 9 inches was consensual…….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, just to prove my calm, I'M LEAVING
    dinner awaits in a restaurant

  • Tronacate

    Have a big plate full of greens for all of us…..

  • Gerbil_gold

    Admin! ADmin!….gmaaaaaaaak.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    amazing, the shorts are absolutely pathetic, no conviction. I guess 9 straight months of squeezes do that. Same shit today with more excitement. Aside from weak commodity stocks, the same action. REITs and Financials will likely finish right near their highs. Higher world markets causing a gap higher Monday.

  • Tronacate

    Another roger ramp jet job……

  • Tronacate

    Roger rump jet

  • gregn

    That broadening top is playing out still, looks like another failed attempt to rise…

  • Nightwind

    /DX – possible HS top on 5 min

  • Tronacate

    I see that too

  • Tronacate

    Wait til they announce they had the decimal point in the wrong place on the jobs number…..

  • insite

    i keep waiting for that!

  • Tronacate

    IYR to the moon again……jeebus

  • Nightwind

    Guys, I'm going flat and bailing out. I hope you all have a great weekend. : )

  • Tronacate

    You too….

  • gregn

    Have a good weekend.

  • Tom_27

    haven't u heard, there is a new bull market in real estate with all the empty houses and commercial property.

  • PRSGuitars

    Just took a Jan SRS 8 call for .80

    just one, no reason to risk more than that… haha

  • Tronacate

    Might as well roll the dice…….one is just right

  • Tronacate

    unbelievable……

  • PRSGuitars

    76 was critical area, stopped right at it and met with volume — funny how these things go

  • Tom_27

    yes, unfortunately, but there are some nice divergences on the daily on almost all of the indicators. Although, the weekly candle is a little troubling.

  • rikardo_kurvio

    not sure why you getting so excited. i belive this is one of strongest bull markets, because it's within one nasty multiyear bear. think how fascinating might this structure be

  • Tronacate

    Now who was it that said news doesn't matter??

  • I_got_Prechterized

    I guess if the dollar were flat on the day, the Nasdaq would have been up about 55 points.

  • derekste

    had my best day in a long time…

    +55% on SPY 112 Puts (morning)
    +16% on SPY 110 Puts (afternoon)

    Hope everyone has a great weekend… love the traffic this site gets on volatile days… hope Mole & Berk reaped the benefits wherever they are!

  • PRSGuitars

    Congrats man!

  • rikardo_kurvio

    well done!

  • slickwilly

    Any bets on what EWI STU says tonight? Broken record.

  • WTFed

    Financial Forecast already out broken record.

  • TimV

    3 Geronimo trades. 2 winners, 1 loser. -0.5 on the day.

    I personally was down 4 with it on the day. The first trade sold 1 point lower than my stop mkt order… and I missed one of the winning trades because it was too fast. I trade from my iPhone, so thats probably why I missed it…

    Have a good weekend.

  • Gerbil_gold

    500 comments, come on guys – you can DO IT.

  • clutchshorter

    If Unemployment Rate = Unemployed/# Labor Force, then with -11000 job losses, the only way the rate can go from 10.2% to 10% is if there are more people in the labor force. Am I understanding this correctly?

  • Gerbil_gold

    forget that, did you get a buyer for the wifey?
    ;-D

  • gmak

    Yes. More people said they were back in the labour force and looking….. So with more unemployed, the situation looks better because more are looking. Typical 1984-ese.

  • clutchshorter

    Interesting – just because more people are looking doesn't mean they have jobs.

  • labdude

    Here is the link to the BLS release.
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

    Some excerpts:

    Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November.
    Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding
    52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by
    117,000.

    Health care employment continued to rise in November (21,000), with not-
    able gains in home health care services (7,000) and hospitals (7,000). The
    health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began in
    December 2007.

  • gmak

    Exactly – but the bureaucrats count them as being “in the labour force” – so the denominator gets larger, more so than the numerator.

    This was a P/R setup if I ever did see one. Increasing the denominator or decreasing it is so subjective and can be used along with the Births/Deaths model (imagined small business job creation or destruction) to tell the story that one would want to tell under any circumstances.

  • gmak

    Sorry. Shave Gerbil bashing is permitted. See my post. lol.

    Try these emullient lotions to keep the skin soft, and smile for the camera. :-)

  • gmak

    For the heck of it. This is post 500.

  • clutchshorter

    These past two days were one of the strangest days I've ever seen. You have yesterday's sell off into the close on fairly high volume. And today the markets rallied the first 2 hours then sold off heavily also on high volume. DOW and SPX had 200 point and 20 point swings respectively. You also have EUR/USD and DXY rallying while GOLD selling off.

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Huge moves setting up around the 1100 area, watch it like a hawk. Here is 60 minute SPX going into the weekend http://bit.ly/6zmO5M

  • gmak

    Looking at DXY – it did get to a higher high, but just barely. I remain cautious here since we didn't manage to close above the top white horizontal line. Notice that TD Pressure is headed down, and the MACD is about to signal down as well. All this on a 30 min DXY chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/ODlhOGFmMz

    I'm of two minds about this for Sunday night. Japan must be feeling pretty good for its exporters – given the YEN falling 2.27 cents. Back above 90! whoo hooooooo!

    Looking at the EUR 30 min, I've drawn the voilet dashed line in the sand that would be an indicator of continued DXY strength. Look at how many times we've come to that level in the last month. Even if EUR gets below that, 1.4628 becomes the scary point for the USD bulls.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZjFjY2Ux

    The small horizontal lines spanning each day are the pivot points. MACD is wa-ay negative – but EUR did not close down below that level of support.

    You can also see that TD Waves have it at wave 3 of 5 down (TD waves doesn't do waves within waves). So, expect wave 4 beginning on Sunday night. Notice that each wave lasts at least 2 days – so wave 5 MAY be on Tuesday. (Yellow waves are down waves, blue would be the numbering if they are up waves – and that would be one heck of a Wave 3 up that we just went through if it were in fact an up sequence).

    Long story short – don't expect the rout to continue for EUR through Sunday night into Monday. Don't expect continued strength on the USD. You know the USD bears are numerous with deep pockets and a lot at stake – especially Asia.

  • gmak

    As to jobs. For Pete's sake, Christmas is coming and the bulk of employed were temporary – WTF??!! You can't extrapolate to continued economic growth on temporary jobs.

  • Gerbil_gold

    yeah, definitely GMAK.
    just remember – Mole is already to go.
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ants/images/quee-0

  • clutchshorter

    Agree gmak – to add to that too, you can't have economic growth without revenue growth. Companies are earning profits because they are cutting expenses. It's all an accounting game.

  • gmak

    Now THAT is disturbing. lol

  • gmak

    Exactly! And it can only end in tears.

  • clutchshorter

    Anyone think margin calls will be coming in over the weekend for GOLD buyers? I think investors were loaded up heavily on GOLD thinking it was headed to $1600.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Just woke up, basically. Anything haapen today?

  • gmak

    Nah. You didn't miss a thing. :-)

  • gmak

    Only the speculators who came in at 1200. Everyone else is either married to the stuff, or so profitable that they have their stops much lower.

  • innatedc

    Hey Gmak…..great charts. Just wanted to say that I'm thinking an event may trigger a gap below that beautiful violet line you have there and really force the hand of the dollar bears….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Ladies and rats, I'm calling it a night, and probably a week as sunday's my birthday.

    BPSPX STILL BELOW MA13

    THIS MEANS DOWN

    SPX:GOLD has touched the mid bol, nice to drop and keep droping, specialy because Gold could now use a retracement to 1180

    have a nice weekend and hope you're short

    p.s. it is 99.99% sure the mothercopulators from GS/PPT will try to make a huge gap up monday. Ignore the hype, the only way is down right now. 10% in real terms, in nominal depends on gold (it already touched 1150, first ounce point, 1100 and 1030 are next)

    p.p.s. MOLE?!?!? come over here and explain that IF the GS boys get a solid and sustained gap up this is going to 1.0 on spx:gold and with gold at this levels it's close to S&p 1040's

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    octopus it was

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Any neg news on aapl ever come out?

  • randomwalker

    ..And Doubly PURE evil are the racists on this site….

  • gsavli

    happy birthday, go nuts :)

  • clutchshorter

    I don't think I've seen over 500 comments in one day on ES. Maybe this turning point? Or a head fake again..

  • elliott_surfs

    when the Mole's away…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Consistency matters hugely in a league designed for parity. What has put Indianapolis perennially in the playoffs has been winning streaks — five straight to start the 2003 season, eight straight in 2004, 13 straight in 2005, nine straight to start this season. “Once is an aberration, twice is a coincidence,” Dungy is fond of saying. “Three times is the beginning of a pattern. Four, five, six is a pattern.”

    I'm not convinced of anything yet….with the possible exception that Natural Gas has found a floor. I'll ride it up until the market lets me know where it's going, which is most likely down BUT SEE ABOVE.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Something to Ponder (and please FX gurus help me out), How disruptive will the unwinding of the carry trade be if the carry trade finds a new host currency i.e. from the dollar to the yen? I think it would be hugely disruptive to the FX community and possibly bullish (?) for equities and bad for all commodities except gold.

    Conceptually it would go much like this…. (Stripper scene from “The Hidden”)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q52nf_wauks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    racists? you have a german owner, a portuguese hamster and half a dozen other more or less active portuguese posters, a crazy jew russian (and don't recall if it was psr gmak or who who said he was also jew), at least a german girl, an iraqui or more, a crazy irish carrot, people in canada, think there are some indians, and don't know, nor care, where the others come from … unless you are jocking this looks more like united collors of bennetton than the clan.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, even though your posts are few they seem serious and I like where you post (I respect kenny a lot) but please don't make me think you came here to start a riot by using insults

    I don't think any of our posters has been racist, and I doubt any subscribe that description. Tolerance should be on first ammendment grounds, people from (so called american style) liberals like branding any non extreme equalitarianism/relativism as racism, fascism, etc. Don't try it around here. Respect others world view insofar as it doen't impact you. If anyone offends you feel free to state so, but be objective.

    If you don't like someone in particular, live with it, they have probably earned their right to be here and know when to stop (or are reminded)

    yes, my view is that newcomers have a smaller lattitude of error, earn your place and some rants will be forgiven

    best regards

  • Tronacate

    As an American Indian I have the perfect right to hate white people…….but I don't……..so I'll just creep over to the side of my tepee and down a little more firewater…..mmmmkay?

  • Tronacate

    Did you get your load of greens for dinner hamsterlips?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    didn't i mention octopus already?

    BTW, forgot your “part indian but not enough to bring in some money”, do you think we don't respect our alien friend from mars or something? should be something like that….seriously, did you understand random's rant?

  • Tronacate

    SSH…..can you or have you done a complete synopsis of your trading technique using the gold ratio? I'm looking for a piece like BERKMEister did on his BB trendtrading technique.
    Sure would appreciate a link or a nice post with in depth summary.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if it's a 12 years malt feel free to invite (does your teepee club accept probable celtic, phoenician, greek, roman, goth, arab, jew and black ancestry? LOL)

  • Tronacate

    Yes I understand his rant…….but anyone who doesn't recognize racial tendencies is pretty much 20,000 leagues under the sea.

  • Tronacate

    I would drink with you anytime……on a serious note have you seen the genetic studies on people and the gene that encodes for alcohol dehydrodenase and aldehyde dehydrogenase varies from race to race? Explains the Indians affinity for firewater……I'll look for the link

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I didn't, and to be honest I started using the MA13 some time ago and only lately have taken the MA104 and seen how the BB with channels at 1.618 and 2.618 fit well

    think of it as inflexion/continuation points and I try to mix it with EWT counts (though some are completly heretic as I count GS influenced waves and try to get a compass out of stock/index:$gold)

    I'll try setting up some rules, guidelines and examples mid-week

  • Tronacate

    Here's one related to the Japanese:

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/x7888l18312

  • Tronacate
  • Tronacate

    Thank you…..your knowledge is much appreciated…….

  • Tronacate

    Speaking of BERK…..where the hell is he???

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Tron, be precise, chauvinism (for others) patriotism (for self) is not racism. Furthermore one his closest to his kin (even if they have all sorts of colors and we never met them in person) that's hardwired from some primate millions of years ago. Speaking of which, that's why I mentioned the american style liberal tribe, where ythose who are not tolerant are not tolerated (see the issue there?)

    Do you think I might t something on my perspective?

    BTW, did I ever condone or refrain from crIticizing left or right, regardless of color or creed when I thought someone was out of order?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    old story, most asians (and american indians are of asian origin) can't handle alchool because of that

    on the other hand they usually handle opium reasonably well

    we grow used to our traditional poisons

  • Tronacate

    Nope…..you get after all us out of order types…….right or left.

  • Tronacate

    The case of the guy suing Harrah's casino might be related…..kept him on alcohol and prescription pain meds. Think the orientals apparent love of gambling might be related to the alcohol issue??? Interesting link there I believe……and I'm sure the casino owners make sure they feed them all the liquor they can.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    even most vegetables are poisonous, we have got used enough for not having too much problem with that, but it might explain how standard hunters on sand some thousand years ago could beat usain bolt

    our lyfestyle did to us what it did to dogs compared to wolves, smaller brain, reduced strenght, but we prospered beyond any possible alternative “in the wild”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    on leave

    that's all I know, wish he was here to take a look at my BBs

  • Tronacate

    Here's the link on the Harrah's case……interesting reading……

    http://blogs.findlaw.com/injured/2009/12/no-dic

  • Tronacate

    So you see a big gap up on monday am to shake out the shorts?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    alcohol and risky behaviour is cross-race

    beside, asians who were most addicted to game were…women

  • Tronacate

    So true…….those wild women

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no, if there is a gap up it can be sustainable because we are now on the MA13, .94 crossing it invites 0.98 (or further)

    so it's not a certain thing a gap and crap. will depend on selling pressure

    both a non gap and gap down should get us to .86

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you see, our brains and bodies are wired differently, each has strengh and weaknesses. I can't condone the “equal/equal” POV, equal dignity and rights? DAMN YES, but they are women we are men, and most would kill you if you treated them equaly, they have (and often if informaly had) equality plus, they don't settle for less and we cocky little male chimps are more than happy to oblige.

    (now I'll be killed, but it's as natural as the liver differences you mentioned)

  • Tronacate

    You just applied the opener to a large can of worms……good luck with that…..lol

  • Tronacate

    Got it…..thnks

  • Tronacate

    Well…..see you again sunday pm or monday…….have a great weekend SSH

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, but i didn't hear south park jesus saying “I woudn't touch that wit a 10 foot stick”

    I try to be civil (without hipocrisy), tolerant (without condescendence), thoughtful (without subservience).

    I was never cut out to be falsly humble or politicaly correct. I speak my mind, if you can reason it to change or at least consider a different hypothesis, I thank you, knowing is something I love (don't risk calling it truth, good or wisdom, I read Popper late but had reached very close conclusions)

    well, the can was always open

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he-he
    make up your mind
    either crazy jew or mad russian
    just know – whichever you pick – that will be the worst part

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, same to you

  • clutchshorter

    I just came back from dinner and it struck me.

    The unemployment #s came out better than expected because Obama was scheduled to speak today. Why would they release bad #s ahead of Obama's speech.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    these spaniards are always the same, always complaining….

    well, how about mad russian during work days, crazy jew on the sabath (hey, right now) and on sunday I'll prepare you for your next adventure and call you damn yankee

    either that or dave all the time except when you deserve a special crazy smile

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry for being MIA all day – I had to go to San Diego and completely forgot to tell everyone.

    Berk is dealing with some personal issues right now – I expect him to return eventually. He probably decided to wait for the conclusion of P2 and not waste his time/money/patience looking at this sick tape.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly – WTF!! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    As a German I curiously like everyone – especially the females of each species. Except for American Indians – man, they really suck….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not fair bugzy! you changed your post :-p

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice to have you back boss

    😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    are you sure you're not half portuguese?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, have a nice weekend

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hadn't noticed you were back. nice seeing you around again

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry guys – I was really pressed for time and thought CD would jump in. Then I remembered that he's actually in L.A. – gonna buy him a beer tomorrow.

  • ds2

    Uhhh is there a chart for this .86? .86 of what? Love to see it.

  • ds2

    Hope he is OK. We miss him around here. Cheers to you Berk. Damn this red wine is good.

  • Offtimer

    Happy BDay thanks for putting up with all of us aliens. Your dreams are granted for 2 down weeks, starting Monday. (Sounds good? Huh!)

  • Joe8888

    I think this unemployment video says it best:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulu3SCAmeBA&feat

  • randomwalker

    Sorry hamster..guess I dont get the shorthand here..anyhow you do look like an alien with those metal antenna growing out of yer head..what planet do hamsters come from anyway?

  • Gerbil_gold

    it's 4am hammie time, i'll give it a try..
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=D

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    Reversion to the mean! Thank you for proper words. I never knew what the signal was called.

  • Gerbil_gold

    you're like the guy who laughs a minute after the joke.
    'we still luv ya man'.
    ;-D

  • randomwalker

    Thats evil S.S. hamstergirl – you dont agree with the statement that racism is evil then?

  • fast996

    Hello, My thoughts on the broadening top in the SPX and the Dow. The S&P is really interesting as a perfect minature broadening top has formed within the larger formation. The minature is perfect with a 3rd higher high and a lower low. Now from this low we have what looks like a corrective wave up. Wherever this wave stops if the decline makes a new low, the top is in. Theoretically when we put in the low today that was a confirmation but usually the wave up fails to make a 4th higher high. The 3 higher waves in this small pattern probably signify the 5th wave extending. I saw this in the Transportation average leading to the top in 1990. The trans average had completely exhausted itself in a UAL frenzy and proceeded to crash on the ensuing decline,FWTW. Interesting stuff.

    Also another item to ponder is the recent rise in the 30 yr treasury. The chart pattern shows a possible rapid rise to a 7.00 – 8.00 pct yield. Of course that would create a credit crisis, the dollar could retrace the entire decline and then some and a stock market crash or atleast a low below SPX 666.

    Another interesting observation, today after the close the SPX futures closed at the 1108 level, filling a open gap from todays decline. So the pattern could already be complete and Sunday night we start lower. But these sessions are notoriously thin and fertile ground for ramps up, so we shall see, Cheers,

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    everything went just fine

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's price of spx in realmoney (i.e. gold) you can do it in stockcharts using $SPX:$GOLD

    try the link thar gerbil posted where he already added the B.Bands I find more useful

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    saude

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, and I don't put up with aliens, we are all ES stainless steel rats 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW? by the way

    persei omicron 5

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, you did. Thank you for telling me.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    why am I getting the idea that you decided to test my patience? Either that or you don't read what people write before going on falacious arguments.

    just to give you the benefict of thedoubt I'll make a couple of statements and expect a prper answer:

    1. Is there aywhere, anything that makes you assume the ssh is of the female gender or is that a friendl tradition of some unknown place to treat men by name+girl?
    2 I answered your earlier statement about racists in this site, not about racism so once again, from where did you get that further assumption about my position on racism?
    3. I metioned the non-human origin of both endophilic and xenophobic reflexes in humans, did I make a judgement on the subject?
    4. there is only one current human race, fully interbreeding, there are groups that by genetic similarity or gegraphical contiguity and for ease are designated by a name. is the term racism the correct one to use or do you talk about any unknown hamster/human intolerance that I am not aware of?

    5. this is a trading blog we know two colors, green and red

    6. the term evil here is often a playful joke, don't over and misuse it

    Now as you took the time to be humurous or offensive, take some time to ponder and reply

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    possibly bad news gerbil, see how it was a full day above MA13? I didn't see how the MA itself would move, monday we might touch the upper BB of 13,1.618 at .97/.98

    on the other hand it crossed and reversed, closing below (rejecting), the lower bb104,1.618 so we might fall from here

    realy a painful setup for weekend

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    hi cub

    did you cash some gold in time? you were MIA (at least postwise)

    BTW I would bet on on 1175 before going to 1135 then it gets ambiguous

  • raised_by_wolves

    As of now, I only have two GLD 118 Dec puts, and I’m comfortable letting those expire worthless.

    Edit: I mean calls, not puts. I’m so used to typing puts.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    118?they’ll probably be ATM during monday morning, and then probably drop out until opex

  • raised_by_wolves

    They’re down ~20 percent as of now. Monday morning, I’ll try to sell them for a profit. That’ll be a good excuse to wake up early.

  • labdude

    puts?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    see why I see a w4 to almost 1180

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08246302563

    but you might want to reload at 1130’s

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    gold calls 118

  • labdude

    Odd–persons comments are appearing–then being removed.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Calls that I had purchased the other week that become +100% before GLD gapped down. They are now -20%. My original intent was to sell them at +300% or let them expire worthless. Hamster has more or less convinced me that I may as well sell them if GLD bounces Monday morning.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no deleted messages today so just imagination (and I did check, deleted messages are available for moderators)

  • labdude

    Thanks for the responses.

    I own a small amount of the following:
    TZAAB.X BKZAY.X SSHAR.X DOFAN.X SWGON.X

    Taking a beating–but thats ok–I'm part Klingon—-I purchased them for the education (I'd been practicing with “paper trades”)

    Most of my TA is from my eyeballs–what I see in the Midwest–but I guess my eyeballs are lying to me–or wall street is full of poo-poo.

  • labdude

    Thank you–I stopped refreshing my browser–working a little different for some reason this morning–no big deal–need to log off in a minute and start my day anyway.

  • formykids

    Joe-

    I don't know if I should laugh or cry watching that video……

    PS Thanks for all your charts. I really enjoy their simplicity and clarity.

  • centerline

    Interesting analysis. Thanks Fast. Talking about UAL frenzies. I can't believe where it is now!

  • Anonymous

    There’s an intersting fratal palying out on the indices. It compares the daily chart of the last 10 months to the weekly chart of the 2003 -2008 period. It works with SPY IWM and GS.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p75043803449

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&st=2002-12-05&en=2008-01-01&id=p68171863476

    I have us at the end of sept 2006. If we continue folowing the fractal, we will have a blowoff top over the next month or two.

  • gregn

    I have to say, I am pretty excited about ToS' new release.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    I do not “convince”, I showed a chart that points to possible rebounds down on 1131 or 1048 (yes, I slightly adjusted my initial values os 1150 and 1100, ok, the second not as slightly, but looking again is a good idea)

    If I had convinced you of anything you would have sold by thursday evening

  • centerline

    Great video. Some funny posts under it too.

  • Erikd

    XLF ROOF TOP PATTERN UPDATE
    http://screencast.com/t/MWUzMGE2N

  • randomwalker

    Kewl, hamster. I was mistaken, I know evil is a joke here, so no more shooting flares in anyones direction.. From now on strictly the relevant stuff.

    I guess misanthropism is common to all cybersurfers from time to time, I mistook a throw-away comment for the real thing but it wont happen again.

    1. I dont believe you are a 'herm'-ster

    2. I think youve made your position very clear

    3. ? (I probably have Gamophobia)

    4. No. Hamsters are not varmints.

    5. Cool.

    6. Good point.

    Hey its your hamster wheel. You decide if you want my input, your prerogative.

    Peace out.

  • randomwalker

    So youre not a hermster then?

  • fast996

    That doji candle, should be interesting,and should get a red candle confirmation given the overhead resistence.

    Fits with the broadening top in the SPX.

    I think if we rally first thing I would short the market if we do not go above the previous top or place your stop 2 pct above the high.

    Monday I think is the tell as far as which way this market goes.

    thanks for the chart, go SRS!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, i would say it's easy enough to see from many a comment

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    peace, and it's mole's wheel, I just ry to help keeping it tidy. As I mentioned I did find acceptable comments from you and I respect the places where you post, so you are more than wellcome here, just avoid situations where insults or inuendos might be taken badly (and believe me, sometimes they are and then there i a row and someone goes lick his wounds elsewhere)

    I do my best to keep things as mole stated:

    1. reduce politics
    2. no insults
    3. no excessive chit-chat´

    ES exists so we can learn, and if we have something to give…share

    BTW did you see my sugestion for the Bollinger bands? See if helps you on your trades (berk has a thorough BB trading system some posts ago, you might also like taking a look)

    another thing, you'll soon see that there are plenty of different aproaches here, not only EWT. what's yours?

    best regards

  • randomwalker

    Yes..(offers cigarette)..

    Well,right now, I'm interested in candles, and BBs also. I get alerts from CandleWave and they are 24 carat so far. They got me out of gold on Thursday, and called the $/Yen turn on Nov.27.

    With Bollingers, I'm trying to learn as much as possible A.S.A.P. because they are great for calling turns..so thanks for the roadmap!

  • randomwalker

    FYI:

    renegadetrader.com is offering a free options webinar this weekend. Well worth the time.

    Cheers!

  • randomwalker

    Must ask:

    You get your A.L.F.alfa cubes from there then?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, bob the horseloves them

    hamsters live on a less epicurian diet

  • randomwalker

    Ha! Thanks

  • randomwalker

    Must ask:

    You get your A.L.F.alfa cubes from there then?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, bob the horseloves them

    hamsters live on a less epicurian diet

  • randomwalker

    Ha! Thanks