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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Friday, April 9, 2010
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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Friday, April 9, 2010

by The MoleApril 8, 2010

by gmak

Does this make sense? From Barry Rithoz’s web-site,

here is a chart

representing the aggregate Balance sheet of households in the USA. It doesn’t look half bad. The distortion comes from the concentration of wealth and asset ownership in the USA. It is in the hands of 20% of the population as follows, courtesy of Mish and Professor William Donhoff of Santa Clara. If one adjusts the balance sheet graphic to reflect that lower 80% – I think a picture of extreme leverage and illiquidity would emerge. 250 mm people in debt who will be told that taxes are going up to pay off the .gov debt used to keep the 20% in wealth. I don’t think even American Idol can stop the emotional carnage.

  • The Bottom 80% have 7% of financial wealth.
  • The Bottom 80% have 8.9% of stock ownership
  • Only 31.6% of the population has more than $10,000 in stocks.
  • 70% of white families’ wealth is in the form of their principal residence; for Blacks and Hispanics, the figures are 95% and 96%, respectively.

Over in China, according to a Bloomberg interview with Chanos: “The world’s third-biggest economy may need to keep up the pace of property investment because up to 60 percent of its gross domestic product relies on construction, said Chanos. The bubble may begin to “run its course” in late-2010 or 2011, he said in an interview on “The Charlie Rose Show” that will air on PBS and Bloomberg TV.”

China is supposed to be driving the world,  isn’t it?  The American consumer is supposed to be the engine, aren’t they?  Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. IT all looks like this to me:


Inside a Broken Clock

Civilization is saved because California’s Tax revenue beat forecasts by $356 million. This is the 4th month in a row that forecasts in the budget have been beat. It’s going to be tough for the Governator to keep a lid on prolific spending and union promises by the legislature. But, it is raising the old “green shoots” chant.

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SPX Daily Chart


The last two daily SPX bars were a ’53’ (Wed) and a ’35’ (Thur).  A 35 is usually followed by a day where CLOSE < OPEN. But, when it is preceeded bya ’53’ bar (there have only been 6 since 1982), then the next day is CLOSE > OPEN more often than not. I’m going to go with the single bar, and suggest that the double bar is too few for a sample and time will rectify the discrepancy. Sound fair?

The probabilities were right about yesterday. SPX did indeed finish with the CLOSE > OPEN – even if the so-called open was 1181 (yeah, for a nanosecond). That’s a few days running. If this continues, we may have a bit of an edge with these probabilities. I remain unconvinced for now.

Looking at the daily chart: Yesterday “officially” opened above the “Since Oct 21” trend line, put a pin down to the LOD and then headed on up. The HOD was less than the last 2 days suggesting waning enthusiasm. Howevr, the close is still above the trend line. Could this be the new bottom edge? As I indicated, the TD Pressure did move back above the signal line. The low risk SELL is still active because the stop-loss has not been reached.

If you can see the dashes just after the purple number 13, they are defining a go / no go level for a runaway market’s next leg. The magic number is SPX = 1200ish. A decisive break of that line would mean more of the same ad nauseum. By decisive break, I mean closing a above the line, with the next bar opening higher than the close, and closing higher than its open. Meanwhile, the same applies for the trend line, and we have not had a decisive break above the “Since oct 21” trend. line. Today, SPX would need to open higher than 1186.44, and close higher than where it opens for this move above the trend line to continue, IMO.

27 days for SPX daily above the 55-day SMA. If we’re supposed to get below by day 40, we can still spend a few wandering in the wilderness perched on this trend line before heading down. If it doesn’t happen by then, then it’s seven years of bad luck, or some such thing.


EUR Daily Chart


is it my imagination, or has EUR put in what amounts to a double bottom? I guess when everyone is already short, it’s pretty hard to force the action down at the margin without a catastrophe. If Trichet’s news conference, and the Greek Farce didn’t put EUR into hell, then I don’t know what will. There have to be a lot of nervous shorts out there.  TD Pressure seems to agree for now.

UPDATE on RESEARCH

I’ve written before that there is no correlation between the Thursday before the OPEX week (which was yesterday) and any day of OPEX week. I crunched the numbers, this time based on the weekly returns before and after OPEX week. Here are the results. Ignoring the correlation between OPEX week and the days in it, one can see that there is almost no relationship. Anther myth-take put to rest. I wish some of these would turn out to be valid. It would be nice to see some pattern emerge somewhere, wouldn’t it. Oh well. I’ll keep plugging away.

Weekly returns OPEX WEEK B4 WEEK AFTER
OPEX      
WEEK B4 -0.27%    
WEEK AFTER -4.24% 22.05%  
       
       
  v W X
Inter-Day Return OPEX WEEK WEEK B4 WEEK AFTER
OPEX Day   -2.05% 15.72%
Prev Thurs -5.88%   22.26%
OPEX Mon 43.18% -16.91% -17.53%
OPEX Tue 37.90% -0.13% -1.49%
OPEX Wed 39.38% 26.20% 10.26%
OPEX Thu 50.64% -8.58% -15.96%
       

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gmak

    I'm posting this early because I have over a week off and in case I sleep in, I wanted something to be there. I won't have Disqus and firewall issues for a whole week!

    I'll do the overnight update in the AM. See you then.

  • chronographics

    Sleep in? Why not, looks like most were asleep when we got ourselves into this mess, most looked like they were asleep when Greenspan read his comments regarding his role to the Crisis Committee 😉

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Great post GMAK! going to the great outdoors?

  • goldpackers

    Big turn due 4-14. Have to believe it is a high and expect at least a 5% correction which is ~ .382 also.

    EW wise, looks more like 5 waves up from the 666 low and we get an ABC correction probably into early June.

    Still like EMC although if not a take over now , 19.50ish may be the ceiling. Buy dips. PLD interesting also.

  • goldpackers

    Believe X has 5 waves down. Buying puts today and will add if we hold up into 4-14

  • gmak

    Nope. Just getting some needed time away from work. Looking at markets, engaging in various fitness activities.

    Thanks for the compliment, sincerely.

  • gmak

    I'm looking for a little feedback on the post – specifically: Can everyone see the embedded links? On my monitor they are a little faint, and buried in the text somewhat. Should I make them more obvious?

    A few times, the link has been plain wrong (fumble figures in cut and paste) and NO ONE HAS MENTIONED IT.
    I can either conclude that no one clicks on the links (rut-roh) or that no on cares (meh).

    Let me know. think of this as a customer satisfaction feedback survey without the Jehovah Witness knock at the door. thank goodness they haven't discovered telemarketing. heh. this is not meant as an insult to your religion, if anyone follows that, just to the practice of forcing it down my throat.

  • tafse

    looks good from here! (including links)

    great post

  • gmak

    Overnight
    Asia was green except for SKorea and Indonesia – so almost the reverse of yesterday. Europe is all green and breadth seems fine. No surprise, the DAX gapped up big time to above Wed. closing level, effectively erasing yesterday. The trend is gently downward. Every sector is green and breadth is almost 100%. Get out the darts. Utilities, health care, and consumer staples are the big gainers so far. It looks like there is still a component of risk aversion – so there may be a gap fill.

    ESM0 was flat and hesitant until Europe opened – so that sets the tone for today as well. Presentlly, it is stuck in a range between TD technical resistance and support from 1184ish to 1186.75 – that seems tradeable pre-market.

    Pivots:
    R2: 1194 = Today looks like an “open higher” day that I refer to for a DECISIVE move above the trend line, for SPX. If so, then this is a distinct possibility.
    R1: 1189 = Once ES is out of its technical trading range, mentioned above, then this will likely be the ceiling – I'll check the news and data and see if anything is coming down the pipe to change this.
    Neutral: 1180 – This would likely be the bottom of the intra-day range. It seems that in was a seminal point, acting as the high for yesterday's drift down (seen around midnight between Wed and Thur). Looks like it was support at times on Wed. as well
    S1: 1175 = Around the low in early regular market trading yesterday. This is the bottom of the pop that happened at the close on the 2nd, and around where ES opened on the 5th.
    S2: 1166 = This has been a support level area for well back into March. I suspect that this is where the SMAs come into play.

    NEWS
    Lots of noise about what a good boy, Greece is. Canada employment disappointed – glad I sold the pop from the rumours.

    China had difficulty issuing debt with terms of 91 and 272 days. It seems that there is concern about short term rate hikes.

    Data
    WHolesale inventories at 10AM EDT for February. Expected = 0.4%; Prior = -0.2% revised to -0.1%. These are needed to support the economic growth story. Could be a data point that forces short term volatility as wrongway bets are rapidly covered.

  • gmak

    Thanks.

    Do you think that I should maybe isolate the links more and have them look like headings or something?

  • tafse

    With the space both above and below the links i think they look isolated enough, maybe choose another colour :)

  • jacksoo

    yes – not that obvious as they are.

  • gmak

    refresh and check it out now. Is that better?

  • jacksoo

    yeah – on my Mac the underline is so faint its hard to notice, colour change helps.

  • gmak

    Next week is OPEX week (ALREADY?), and I wanted to put up some research showing the correlation between the days of opex and the week before and the week after.

    However, Iworks sucks big times (Love everything else about the powerbook) – so I have to try to work around that somehow.

  • gmak

    But if anyone remembers from my previous public posts on the subject, there was little or NO correlation between the Thursday before OPEX week (which was down = yesterday) and any of the days of OPEX week. Another myth-take skewered.

  • gmak

    I've just gone long EUR off the bottom of this AMs range ( since 5AM EDT range) for a quick turnaround. I see the bottom of the range around 1.3388 / 92 to a top at 1.3416 / 25, more or less.

    Of course EUR has chosen this moment to drift below the range. Lol. What a bitch!

  • gmak

    If you want a laugh, here is a post about Bernanke's speech from late last night. This guy should have the Pitt character from the “Inglorious Basterds” movie cut the word “Hypocrite” into his forehead.

    http://tinyurl.com/Bernanke-BS

  • Onorio

    Hey gmak!

    I`ve ride that long move too but on USDJPY. Right now im shorting the EURJPY based on a possible BB reversal setup.

    Tks for you usual daily work!

  • gmak

    Thank goodness we have different time frames in mind. Aren't you worried about GS supposedly selling big amounts of EURJPY, AUDJPY, and USDJPY a few days ago?

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    I've got a short term (3 min chart) BB reversal on EURUSD happening right now. It's what I hope will carry me back up soon to the top of the range for a quick scalp so that I can go get some breakfast. :-)

    ________________________________

  • jacksoo

    stick VMWare Fusion on your Mac and run Windows in parallel – dead easy, works like a charm. Alternatively spend some time on Numbers.

  • Onorio

    I trade 1h/2h charts, so i dont have to worry with that. They could sell EURJPY now, doesn`t bother me at all :)

    That JPY move was fast and furious but copuld be fake, alot of people junp in the bandwagon after recent lows, so i wouldn`t be surprised that they were shaking some nervous bulls out.

  • gmak

    Numbers doesn't do links and it doesn't translate from Excel very well. Plus, my spreadsheets seem to be too big for it.

    I'm booting up my old DELL laptop and I'll try to get the research on that and add my conclusion to the post above.

  • jacksoo

    Try VMWare – you can run excel via windows and all your Mac stuff and the
    same time and just flick between them as another open window.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    1.335 may be

  • chronographics

    Gmac we have a hedge as I am short from 1.3402. I have EUR breaking down through and below Ichi Cloud, cross over was in cloud. Short term osc pointing down but medium term ones mixed

  • Onorio

    LMAO

    “Greece will not seek the activation of an EU-IMF aid mechanism decided by European leaders last month, finance minister George Papaconstantinou said on Friday.”

    I want to see how they`re gonna pay the bonds that mature at the end of the month…

    OH! i know! they gonna issue more bonds! but….who`s gonna buy?

  • gmak

    Yeah. I was hoping for a quick pop to the top of the range, through a weak point in my Ichi cloud (3 min chart). There are too many bearish short term signs and I'm going to close out this trade once TD Pressure releases EUR up. TD Pressure went up to overbought earlier without much movement in EUR – which says a lot about which way the sentiment lies (down. lol).

    ________________________________

  • Reeves5333

    Good Morning all (or evening depending on where you are located). Thanks for the great info gmak!

    I just wanted to give a quick update on the ISEE. If we close at or above 260 today on the ISEE we will finally get the 10 day moving average at/above 230. Not that it is a guarantee for a sell off after that, but that would be very significant.

    The bear in me would rather see this thing rip down 50 pts today, but the setup would be sweet if we could close up one last time and set that 10dma at 230 or higher. Also, that would put us at 6 weeks up on the /ES. I realize it is OPEX and that is typically bullish, but I remember in January when we had a good sell off on OPEX (Jan 15th) and that started the correction.

    That is all I have…not much, but something to think about!

  • chronographics

    Mind this is only the five min Ichi chart, nothing clear on the wave front. May have completed correction up at 1.3418 waiting to see clear five down

  • gmak

    may be what?

  • gmak

    If you refresh, and are a subscriber, I've posted an update on my OPEX week research.

    Cheers.

  • gmak

    Thanks for the compliment. And Thank You for the ISEE update. I think that today could be a set up for a move higher if certain conditions occur. It's nice to know that there is a wind pushing against that, so if this fails, then the momentum will be down even stronger.

    Cheers.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    for trying long

  • gmak

    Looks like an inverted cup and handle forming on EUR, no? (3 min chart since around 2AM NY time. The next small move up should form the handle, and then down from there, if that's the case. TD Pressure and TD BUY countdown are almost in position for that move up for the handle.

    I see wave 3 down (of a miniwave series) being put in right now – so then wave 4 (sideways or slightly up) and wave 5 down. 1.3337 looks like the support area in the interim if that happens.

  • gmak

    Yes. I agree on that. I'm stuck early in the trade based on range assumptions. If you saw my previous comment, I think we will see a feint up – giving us the handle on the inverted cup, and then down to 1.3337 where there is a pivot for support.

    How does that jive with what you're seeing?

  • Onorio

    All this EUR move from yesterday seems like a ABC completed today @ 1.3418.

  • chronographics

    Agree, certainly looks like it. Well guess we wait and see now 😉

  • gmak

    I see that in several chart time frames. But it also looks like a wave 3 up that completed at that 'C' – since I don't do nest waves, only sequential ones (when I do them).

  • gmak

    I'm agnostic. I just want out of this trade – hopefully with a profit. LoL. Looks like this mini pop is running out of steam. Time to exit and look for the resolution of the cup and handle. :-)

  • gmak

    Not only that, the banks need to borrow to replace those deposits that are evaporating. I wonder if that E$17 billion guarantee will be worth anything.

    Did you see the news about a big bank that unloaded 5 year Greek debt maturing in 10 to 20 days? they weren't willing to take the chance that Greece would still be around to pay in that short a time.

    If this little crisis somehow goes away, the next domino is much bigger. rut-roh.

  • chronographics

    Well youre getting your pop, think 1.3340 needed to break on downside to get excited. BTW nice post – again…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    longer term I think we'll see EUR1.3120 and (roughly) USD84 few (days/weeks)

    why aren't you using projected ranges for intraday? (I understand u have EOD data in Blimpies AKA BergBloom, but u can always apply those
    http://screencast.com/t/ZWE3YmY4NWUt

  • centerline

    Nice post gmak. It sure feels like the quiet before the storm right now. Of course “the storm” reference makes no indication of what that might mean for gold, silver, currencies, equities, etc. Rather it seems we have a regular game of financial chicken going on… and everything is starting to show signs of stress – particularly the bond markets. Just a matter of who blows up first and where the capital flows shift to and from.

    Going to get interesing later this year I think. Right now, it seems the flavor of the day is a state of limbo as the global breath holding contest continues. LOL.

  • Onorio

    EURJPY usualy breaks first and seems we`re breaking now…i stick with my ABC, but i might be wrong.

    I guess every EUR bounce is short-lived 😛

  • gmak

    I've gone back to TD basics. There is just too many tools. I prefer using the FIB projections – but on a 3 min time frame, I just don't care about that. It;s mainly range trading.

  • gmak

    Of course. And if it were that easy, we would all be retired already :-)

  • Onorio

    I`ve read that! Major dump on the bonds like if the know something. Would that be GS? lol

    The only thing i know is that there`s a bunch of bonds that mature at the end of this month, and i`ve doubts that Greece could pay them.

  • gmak

    Thank you. Nice to see you around. Just think “There are all these big IBs who have a lot of inventory that they need to unload on someone. If there are no mutual funds stepping up, then it's going to be the hedge funds that are short”.
    Downward feints followed by short squeezes seems to be the order of the day for distribution.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    DM has 2 basics TDSeq and Range projection.
    As for DM oscillators – they are pretty much useless and equally subjective as hell

    u went long 7:25 EST??

  • chronographics

    Met DeMark years ago(ok it was a long lunch and I paid) – he is very good at promoting himself 😉 the sequential is good,

  • gmak

    At 7:19 EDT.

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    Here's a decent Barrons article about the return of risk to global markets. Looks like the top to me. All that's missing is the Time cover now.

    http://tinyurl.com/y7e74pt

  • Onorio

    By the way…just get this from ZH

    “Bloomberg calculates the yield on the Greek 3 Month as determined by the bid, or where investors are willing to buy it, based on BVAL sources at 21.3%. In all honesty the bid/offer market in the 3 Month are all over the place. HDAT gives it as 99.650×99.840, BVAL is at 99.470×99.773. The HDAT bid implies a yield of 14.049%, which is still game over for Greece.”

    Game over?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he is a good businessman and he is capable to admit that his “theory” is not perfect and does not explain pimples on the face of neighbor's cat…unlike bOOb.

    It takes a while to properly apply DM's indicators, but at the end – just like he says himself “If nothing else – it gives me discipline”

    OK gang – back to my cave – time to make some moola

  • centerline

    Been mostly in lurking status for awhile. Waiting patiently. Seeing over at zerohedge some information about the Greek 3 month yield going bonkers… just about time to make some popcorn, pull up the chair and watch the fireworks.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    feels like I am in the black car

  • Onorio

    It`s fun how ES is almost halted while FX is moving…Yen is rising, so risk trade is possibly over for now.

    Going down?

  • gmak

    Hard to believe but it looks like the mini wave 5 might be in on the 3 min EUR. It can still go lower, but there is that channel running from arond 6:30 AM NY time.

    Doesn't look like a cup and handle anymore – but like controlled descent down that little channel.

    On the daily chart, though, I still see support at 1.3369 and what looks like a double bottom. If the bottom's not in, this is going to be one hell of a ride down. :-)

  • gmak

    That was a nice trade – a bit of a worry on the dip, but I'll take it. Time for some breakfast.

    Just to note that SPX did open higher than yesterday's close……

  • gmak

    Looks like some stop running on the EUR. Might be time to short for a quick return

  • Onorio

    Ok, i was wrong! Stopped EURJPY at B/E.

    Now im joined the EUR long bandwagon with a stop at B/E (im already with a profit).

    The wrong ABC could now be a 1,2,i,ii with iii on the way.

  • gmak

    Now, it looks like a divergence on the Zero lite. Only two peaks – and I like to see a third…. but….

  • gmak

    Excellent! Good risk management.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Second day in a row that i spend GMT morning with moving stuff (changing house real soon)

    One small point… sold my remaining MBI at 8.2

    will consider reentering as edge at appropriate level

  • gmak

    Hey hammy. Nice to see you when I'm not behind the iron curtain firewall.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    so you have no use for me today (no need to open comments) 😉

    Do you know if anyone else took my trade on MBI? It was proposed the evening before I went long (and I entered 30c above optimum because I overslept) and realy hit the spot

  • gmak

    I wasn't around last night – I was working on the post.

  • gmak

    Oh, I think you know that you're much more valuable than just for opening comments. you have good ideas and insight. From my perspective, I wish you would put more training wheels on what you say, because sometimes I think you are too brief.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Critical. Urgent. Can anyone tell me what was the value of zero lite signal when 1188 was hit on Tuesday.

  • gmak

    send an email to Mole. We can only see what is on the chart (as far as I know).

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it was a month ago

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know my Q.E.D. are often to the bone, but feel free to ask (for instance, on the MBI trade raised by wolves drilled me as devil's advocate)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Well, took profits on my EURUSD short this morning – wishing I had reversed now!!

  • gmak

    lol. you're asking me if I remember who took the MBI rec from a month ago?

    Whoa! what was that in the EUR? Someone dumped a truckload it looks like.

  • chronographics

    Yup your comments good :-)

  • chronographics

    Sorry that was for you SSHammy

  • chumprop

    What the hell was that that caused such a huge red candle there???

  • chronographics

    Sorry missing in action there, had to run for cover, feel violated by my broker :-(
    needs to hold this level 1.3460/70 or think we could have a much bigger run higher

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    I think it was due to Fitch downgrading Greece:

    “Fitch downgraded Greece's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+'. The Outlook is Negative. The downgrade reflects the intensification of fiscal challenges in response to more adverse prospects for economic growth and increased interest costs, Fitch said.”

  • gmak

    So, is the Greece bailout now off?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, just asking if you knew if someone had taken it (raised asked a lot of questions but i don't know if he took it)

    even entering late at 5.5 and selling half close to 6.4 (afraid of the first stop) and some at 7.5, it brought a nifty 30%

  • ricebowl

    What just happened? I was in the middle of buying May puts and the market fell out under my feet. The order I managed to get off for April 119 SPY puts went up 10% in 60 seconds.

  • fisheggs

    EUR/USD still looks pretty happy

  • gmak

    did they at least buy you dinner first? :-)

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    That's a great trade for the time frame. Congratulations!

    ________________________________

  • chumprop

    Potential H&S forming with neckline at 1183.5 on the /ES. Could be forming right shoulder now. Target for move would be ~1180. This is the neutral pivot, 168% retrace and neutral pivot from yesterday if it unfolds.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thank you, and I seldom mention symbols with a full setup

  • ricebowl

    All the kids with down syndrome that I knew in school were always happy, too. Hmm.

  • bananaben

    It's amazing – a whole sovereign nation going completely broke is only good for a 30 point decline on the Dow – and then for only about 5 minutes.

  • gmak

    You are getting more inscrutable by the day. What does that mean? The black car with secret service agents, the hearse? Did you catch any of the ramp up in EUR?

  • gmak

    Nice quick trade idea. Thanks for this. Does the little pop up to near 1186 violate any of the rules for H&S?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks chrono, nice knowing people enjoy them… BTW, think I'll consider another crazy hedge (dont know if I'm too late but…) S

  • gmak

    :-) Quite clever!

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Don't worry, everything is all sunshine and rainbows in the US. Buy on the dip!

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/08/news/economy/st

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I look at this bitch every day – will post an update if/when we make new highs.

    This will all end in tears.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, you guys are chatty today :-)

    MLMT: I will get younthat info soon.

  • jacksoo

    no worries Apple will launch a new product……iFuckedit!

  • skynard

    Simply amazing!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    whose tears? Still hurting to short

    there are too many similarities with 2004…. or 2005

  • chronographics

    I shouldnt be laughing at this comment – but I am :-)

  • chronographics

    Nah just got a sore ass ;-0

  • yudhisthira

    Is TOS stuck again on Zero? Or is it just me?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I want some opinions on the following….

    LONG S
    entry close to 3.7 (scaling in from 3.9?)

    danger zones 4.3, 4.7, 11, 14

    STOP 3,6

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    dontblong
    SPY wave/money flow
    http://screencast.com/t/MmEwNjk1MTkt

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    THE poorest country in entire CIVILIZED world does not need much to go broke-R

  • gmak

    I think that it just looks that way because the market is churning and not going anywhere. Watch for a signal just before ChumProp's H&S neckline break down at around SPX = 1187.30

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    nuh… I fill segregated :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    is this an ED with an headfake at 10:04?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I was long /NG from yest @3.7sh – no need for no stinking FX :) today at least :)

  • TransworldDepravity

    Here you go Hammie
    http://www.finviz.com/publish/040910/Sc1dl1109.png
    Scale in from 4, stop under the first set of moving averages.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    close enough… see I know when “it looks like we have to enter the trade” :)

  • gmak

    On second thought, you may be right! I don't see the price changing even though the time is.

    MOLE: can you take a look at Zero to see if it's stuck, please? Thanks.

  • bsummertime

    zero froze

  • Onorio

    Greece is gonna get bailled out and EUR rallye +100pips….i cant complaint since im long @ 1.34 but what sense does this make?

    Now i know why we`re creeping higher everyday…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well close enoug to my proposal, i guess it will take out 4.3 and then retest 3.70s

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    from my observations the past year these ED yield a break to the upside more often than not

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes they do, when they exhaust they get a free PPT rocket up our bearish ass and the following “correction” barely reaches the natural end of the ED

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Exactly, it use to be a couple of years ago those ED's seemed quite reliable to break down and usually very hard. I would often salivate when I saw them forming. Now when they break upwards it never ceases to shock me that after all that runup it goes much higher. Perhaps this is a short squeeze of those who think it will breakdown, then set their stops above the point which all then get triggered

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    gmak how are you treating the $CA after todays fall from parity?
    it can't seem to break thru last Thursdays high at .995 where I went short ON

  • chumprop

    It went for a head test and we are at new highs, so yes the pattern is now broken imo.

  • chumprop

    It seems like there should be much more volume above /ES 1188 if this were a true breakout. If volume doesn't increase it could be a fake out / stop run….

  • chumprop

    knowing these fuckers they will probably drive it up over 1189 – 1190 around lunch to break through a lot of stops and we'll get a ramp into close. We frequently seems to drift above key high points during the lunch hour on low volume when everyone is away…

  • gmak

    I'm letting it be for now. I took my profits on the long earlier yesterday, thank goodness.

    When I look at CADUSD (meaning that if the price goes up, CAD buys more USD, and if the price goes down, CAD buys less USD) – I see a top for now – but within a channel that is still headed up.

    I see that CADUSD still has not gone below the 10-day SMA, withich had a bullish cross with the 21-day SMA back in February.

    I see support around 0.9850 from some technical indicators plus the 21-day SMA. I see a TD Pressure that is turning up – meaning that there could be more upside.

    Against this, I see a SELL setup and countdown that has completed – meaning a reversal within 12 bars or it was a false signal.

    Today, on the daily chart, the LOD is higher than yesterday, and the HOD is also higher than yesterday – The highest recent close is around 0.9952 sot hat sets a signal up. There is a low risk SELL in play but the stop is up around 1.01ish, and there is a 5th wave reversal indicator at CADUSA = 1.040.

    Summary:
    I would take 1.00 for a close as the go / no go indicator on a long (if the next day opens higher. with looking to tighten stops up around 1.030 – because TD is often over-stating the reversal point.

    To the downside, CADUSA needs to close below the 9 pMA which is at 0.9907 right now, and rising – but there is that support at 0.9870 so it would likely be a scalp. Better to wait to go below the 21-day SMA at 0.9859 and close there in order to go short. There is price exhaustion at 0.9724 – so that could be a limiting factor on any downside.

    I hope this helps a bit. My time frame and trading risk might be different from yours, so this could all be useless. But, there it is.

  • gmak

    Here is my CADUSD daily chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/OTc3ZDU0YW

    As you can see from the green '1' under today's bar, the BUY setup has begun – meaning that CADUSA is expected to head down. But, all the caveats that I put about where support will be do apply and I wouldn't go short or long here until the whole Greece bailout situation gets digested over the weekend – and that it actually exists. A sudden run to the USD in the face of the collapse of any bailout (and JPY) could crater the CADUSD.

    We should also remember that if it gets too strong, the .gov will likely step in – but only after the inflation-taming effects come into play. By that I mean that they will jawbone and even sell the CAD lower, but not for a while.

    Does this help?

  • gmak

    Right now, I see SPX below the 9 pMA on the 5 min chart. That's usually a sign of weakness to come, IF it closes below, and if the next bar opens below that close and closes lower still – ie. something with “CONVICTION”. :-)

    MACD is turning down but both SMAs are still trending up and parallel. So, any drop, IMO would be slow and uncertain (I know, what else is new?). The big white line is the moving 5-day SMA (390 periods of 5 minutes). The purple line is previous support levels that seem to come into play a lot. The yellow picket fence is a TD technical support level should SPX head down, and it is at the same level as the 34 pMA – and above the Ichi cloud – which suggests a decent amount of support that would need to be worn through.

    Here is my chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/YzQ1Mzdk

    As I type, SPX is trying to decide whether to be below or above the 9 pMA (periods Moving Average on the 5 minute chart).

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    that helps especially the TD which I don't have.
    my timeframe is 3-4 days on this one.
    I have a stop at that 1.01 because I would be wrong on the short in my mind if it went back up there.
    My target is just above 0.987 which lines up with the support you noted

  • ricebowl

    Just a thought, but recently there was an article on Zero Hedge about record amounts of call buying. If buying calls is in vogue, then maybe the market makers run the tape down this opex? I stuck a *small* amount of cash in April 119 SPY puts. My puts expire green if SPY goes below 118.10.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    today it's pure unadultered PPT ramp

    we had a k100% on fast and lazy and this ramp took place without a k0% … not even on fast

    this is one of those days…

  • AlohaBear

    agree bastards

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this seems to prepare a 4 to 1160's and a 5 to above 1230

  • bananaben

    No offense dear SSH but I wouldn't think that todays ramp has anything to do with the PPT. My perception of the PPT is that it is a collaboration between PD's, the Fed, and Treasury to stem major declines in the market. I haven't seen anything overt from them during normal trading hours since Feb. 25th when they helped to reverse a 180 pt decline. Before that they came in on Feb 4th. and reversed the market as it was teetering on the abyss. What you are seeing today I think are just more tricks by the PDs/IBs to ramp the sucker up yet again for whatever endgame it is that they are seeking.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    have to disagree, plunge protection has become proactive wave redesign to break resistences.feb 23 was obvious, but just march 16 was scandalous (talking 2010)

  • bananaben

    Well if they are being that proactive then what the hell is the endgame? To take the market into the stratosphere in the face of disaster? To keep ramping up to the elections? I am still convinced that this market will be substantially lower by the end of the year and am hanging in there.

  • fisheggs

    Crude having a little dump now

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I also had that doubt about pushing this into the elections (can't find the comments but mainly i have two thesis, either they use tools developed by brighter people no longer availabe and that they no longer understand what they do or they don't care) as for greater context read some older comments http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12182#dsq-comments , initial page.

    last but not the least, there is a non zero chance of holding until elections with NEW ALL TIME HIGHS (beyond spx 1820) even with lower SPX:GOLD

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if anyone is using the intraday stochastics I mentioned several times…. today there are reversals without reasonable K%'s (i.e. PPT, not even dip buyers are as dumb as this, these last weeks they always waited for at least k0% on fast rat)

    it's party time in bullland

  • I_got_Prechterized

    you're talking apples and apples. The PPt would be nothing without a trading arm. The chosen banks and I-banks work in conjunction with the PPT. This is now a blatant blowout of all shorts especially in heavily shorted names. they're using all the tricks including calling in shares on shorts to ramp higher like AIG a few days ago. I'm hearing today they're calling in shares of HOG after a 50% move in 1 month.

  • bananaben

    You guys are right, they did come in today:

    http://tinyurl.com/y9akors

    So what is the endgame? Print to prosperity with the caveat that only bulls get the dough? No wonder gold is busting out to new highs. All market indicators aren't worth a shit anymore. Dow 36000 here we come.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    url not working

    gold 5 to 8k

    spx doing what it did between 68 and 82….

  • bananaben

    Can't get it to work either, just referring to ZH post where they show the save.

  • MMM___Soylent

    ZH site is not working. Now they are playing dirty.

  • ricebowl

    That's funny.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    WORSE!

    the site is fine and dandy see?

    http://88.80.16.166/

    but

    no DNS resolution
    no google results for the site

    boy do you live in the land of the free or what?!?!

  • ricebowl

    Just FYI, I can resolve it fine.

    C:Documents and SettingsricebowlDesktop>nslookup zerohedge.com
    […]
    Non-authoritative answer:
    Name: zerohedge.com
    Address: 88.80.16.166

  • jg111

    r-, where can I look up DNSs for Drudge, etc.?

    Thanks!

  • ricebowl

    Run nslookup on the DNS entry you want to look up.

  • momac
  • jg111

    Thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Great – ES has been relegated to a ZH complain blog 😛

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – today is a complete bitch.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and first they killed the dns for zerohegde and now the IP routing is gone too… if anyone wants to say coincidence I'm over there and have a nice bridge to sell them

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Mole, I seldom go there myself, but what happened today is worth considering, not by ZH by itself but for what it seems to show as far as “means available”

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    Heck, I can't access Trading To Win. Looks like they are going after any Europeans that moved to the U.S. and run blog/website. 😉

  • goldfishka

    i was there just few minutes ago, clicked on refresh screen and it is gone :(

  • ricebowl

    DNS works fine for me.

    This is where the trail ends for me:
    17 225 ms 429 ms 418 ms vlan401.ge0.cr0.sth3.prqinet.net [193.23.57.146]
    18 * * * Request timed out.

    Looks like they're hosted in Stockholm, not a third-world country.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    LIST OF SITES i CANNOT ACCESS

    zerohedge.com

    kirgizstan.com

    anyone tried US.gov?

  • Onorio

    EUR seems exausted, im grabbing my 60pips proffit and shorting with a tight stop.

    Probably will hold this short for the weekend, if i dont get stopped first…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Yiu cannot access TTW???

    Why none told me that I was dead?????

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    at least it is good for something now

  • ricebowl

    I can access TTW.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    As I said to someone before: “The rumor of my death has been greatly exaggerated”

  • ricebowl

    Oh shit!

    Pinging super.conspiracy.org [64.95.64.198] with 32 bytes of data:

    Request timed out.
    Request timed out.
    Request timed out.
    Request timed out.

  • Onorio

    that was fast…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    here exclusively for ES rodent brothers – last Trading to Win broadcast :(

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    DDT here 2:55PM
    I am broadcasting this from the last standing bastion of free market (they are getting close, they got ZH, Mole is not talking any sense lately, TK has been useless forever…now it is our turn)
    Everyone is looking at this chart and thinks: “Same old story – consolidation and now they are going to blast it up”
    I don't think SO!

  • ricebowl

    I'm short from this morning, and some of my position is in April SPY puts, so obviously I already agree, but what makes you think that they're not going to blast it up?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    unfortunately, on a serious note – I think we have at least 5 more points before any correction

    trends are killing me
    I am the world's worst trend trader
    I am good breakout, reversal player, but steady trends for me is like a hooker who fell asleep after she entered your place – it stinks…for me…

  • ricebowl

    From ZH's own website:

    “We're down temporarily due to technical issues. We'll be back with you shortly.”

  • chumprop

    Resistance is futile….

  • shortcover

    tons of reverse splits coming on ProShares…that's going to screw up my covered calls…will have to add to them to get round lots…!

  • gsavli

    NQ wishful thinking:

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-D59D_4BBF77DA.html

    of course, it's never going to trade under 1990 again.

  • skynard

    11K! WTF!

  • Onorio

    Dow 30K!!!!

  • gsavli

    Dow xk!

    (x being an irrational number)

  • gsavli

    today's action was just another low volume bs.

  • Onorio

    we`re already at a irrational number…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Free loading time!!! Happy weekend everyone :-)

  • I_got_Prechterized

    how many times have us bears thought this Fri afternoon and Mon morning will be different? they won't jam the close this time. they won't gap above resistance Mon. you could have made your year by just buying into the last half hour on Fridays for the last 2 months. I'm starting to feel insane. I already felt stupid, but insanity is repeating the same thing over and over expecting a different outcome.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why would anyone hang out there anyway? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He's a horrible trader – read his stuff after hours.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Looks like they're hosted in Stockholm, not a third-world country.”

    You mean – the U.S.?

  • gsavli

    today's ISEE kinda low: only 262.

  • Reeves5333

    Well, the ISEE closed at 262, which according to my math put us at 230.2 on the 10 day moving average! Add that on top of 6 positive weeks in a row, major divergence on the Zero, next week could be very good for bears. It could also be another rip up week. I loaded up on puts at the close! Good weekend all!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i stoped reading ZH long ago, too much bias even for me 😉

  • ricebowl

    GS apparently went long on a large number of SP contracts at the close. That means that there's a good chance that Monday opens positive. After that you have earnings, and it just depends on whether you think they can be skewed positively or not.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    this can bring cad down next week.
    http://volumedynamics.com/forums/index.php?show

  • ricebowl

    Given the earnings reports next week *and* it being opex, it seems like whatever trend the market picks should move it quite a bit. I'm inclined to be short here for a couple of reasons:

    1) We're at the top of a huge 155-point rally from Feb. to present; it is now longer in both time and size than the rally taking us from 1080 to 1150. Retraces have been capped to 10-15 points maximum and usually not even that.
    2) Opex. ISEE readings point to a fact that I was already well aware of: people have been buying equity calls like there's no tomorrow. JPM has been openly accused of manipulating metals markets around opex; if that is true, then why stop there? It's of course possible that most of the calls are still out-the-money, but if not, then that would be an excellent reason for pushing things down.

    My gut feeling, of course, is that I should be long next week. The action into Friday's close was pretty bullish. Also, if GS was buying up /SP into the close, it goes without saying that you should be long…

    The one last fact that I can't account for is the rumor courtesy of Zero Hedge that various brokerages were pulling liquidity and forcing covers on stocks. That would tend to support the bullish case for now.