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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Mar. 8, 2010
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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Mar. 8, 2010

by The MoleMarch 8, 2010

by gmak

China has hung out to dry any banks lending to cities and regions. Iceland has said “Hell, NO!” to everyone going into debt to bail out the banks. Dubai World is asking banks for a delay on repayment of $26 bb in debt. US banks facing write-downs after FDIC action. Guess the bag-holders in all cases will be the American taxpayer, courtesy of Ben and Timmay, and the European taxpayers. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

EQUITY

My post on the weekend is a beginning of trying to get a handle on the frequency of occurences. As an intra-day trader, though, I find that I am more interested in what will happen during the day.  I mean, from the open, how often does SPX have both a high and a low above and below the open? If there is a high probability that SPX will move above and below the open, then the trader can be agnostic as to the broader trend – if trading intra-day. I’m looking at codifying the bar shape and identifying ratios of the open, close, high, and low, that can give me a picture. If I throw in rising or falling slope, and relationship to (say) the 55 DMA – I may be able to slice and dice the data down to high probability of having that “T” shape sideways, off of the open.

Asia is green. Europe is mixed – but mainly rd. Sweden, Italy, Greece, and Spain are green – but the breadth isn’t very good (usually less than 50% of stocks in green).  The DAX is flat and down off of the initial (very small) gap.  German Ind. production came in lower than expected – but still positive. The EUR experienced some weakness off of this data point (my P/L thanks you). Half of the sectors are green and half red. The breadth is not good suggesting the possibility of further weakness. Green are Consumer staples, financials, telecom, Utilities.

Myt analysis from yesterday (which was posted) says that there is a high probability that SPX will fall back below the 55 DMA by Friday. But, if it doesn’t, then it is likely to stay above for quite a while. SPX is 2.6% above the 55 DMA, and I also posted the probabilities of SPX falling 2.6% within 1 – 15 days.

My instinct says that SPX should retest the “since Aug 17” trend line, but that there is no way of knowing if it is still relevant – so this is not something to be traded.  I have major resistance (TD and the Jan high) at SPX = 1150. As I said yesterday, that is < 4% above the 55 DMA – and certainly NOT a “stretched elastic” in any sense.

Given the DAX,  I expect a soft day. It could be a minor down or up, without much movement on the SPX. I haven’t decided how I’m going to trade this, yet – but I am currently long the EUR for a quick trade – so I may hedge by going short ES.

ES  moved up slowly off of the open last night, but sold off with the Europe open. It saw quite a range, and now TD has a resistance point at 1138.50 above, and a support at 1134 beow. The pivots are quite wide – so I am having a hard time believing that they will be in pay today. Looks like a “between the lines” type of day. Pivots:

  • R2: 1149.50 = SPX will be pushing the Jan high if this happens. I think that this is a low probability event for today. If we go a few more days above the 55 DMA, then this becomes more likely.
  • R1: 1143 = Just a whistle stop on the way to the Jan high if the market is going to move that way.
  • Neutral: 1132.25 = Looks like this was some support on Friday after the overnight ramp. It is below the TD support, so ikely to come into play if SPX sold off today – but I’m not expecting that.
  • S1: 1125.745 = This has been resistance on any intra-day push up for a while. It would likely be solid support.
  • S2: 1115 = This was a floor for most of last week. Need I say more?

FX

Not much to say here.  My EUR long (quick grab) just closed for a profit. Forexlive.com reported earlier that there was buying at these levels (when Asia was open).  There were offers stacked from 1.37 to 1.375 and when the EUR reached there, apparently there were hedge funds selling some more.

My opinion on this is that IF there are heavily shorting hedge funds (and the numbers indicate that it is only about 1 – 2% of the total EUR market), that they are hedging any move up with other futures and options. I think the short squeezes is coming from those less sophisticated, or more extended smaller players, so I’m not looking for any monster ramp – just surges in both directions (especially when stops are run). I like this time of action intra-day because it suits my style and helps me divorce my trading from any bias beyond the current trade.

NEWS

Nothing major beyond what I wrote about in the first paragraph.

DATA

See briefing.com for more, but there is no “official” data out of the US today. TOmorrow are optimism and confidence measures. Wednesday is mortgage, and wholesale inventories – big number for side bets on the direction of the economy – and the monthly Budget statement.

Cheers.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gmak

    Myt analysis from yesterday (which was posted) says that there is a high probability that SPX will fall back below the 55 DMA by Friday. But, if it doesn’t, then it is likely to stay above for quite a while. SPX is 2.6% above the 55 DMA, and I also posted the probabilities of SPX falling 2.6% within 1 – 15 days.

    My instinct says that SPX should retest the “since Aug 17? trend line, but that there is no way of knowing if it is still relevant – so this is not something to be traded. I have major resistance (TD and the Jan high) at SPX = 1150. As I said yesterday, that is < 4% above the 55 DMA – and certainly NOT a “stretched elastic” in any sense.

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-37F2_4B94E37C.html

    ES moved up slowly off of the open last night, but sold off with the Europe open. It saw quite a range, and now TD has a resistance point at 1138.50 above, and a support at 1134 beow. The pivots are quite wide – so I am having a hard time believing that they will be in pay today. Looks like a “between the lines” type of day. Pivots:

    R2: 1149.50 = SPX will be pushing the Jan high if this happens. I think that this is a low probability event for today. If we go a few more days above the 55 DMA, then this becomes more likely.
    R1: 1143 = Just a whistle stop on the way to the Jan high if the market is going to move that way.
    Neutral: 1132.25 = Looks like this was some support on Friday after the overnight ramp. It is below the TD support, so ikely to come into play if SPX sold off today – but I’m not expecting that.
    S1: 1125.745 = This has been resistance on any intra-day push up for a while. It would likely be solid support.
    S2: 1115 = This was a floor for most of last week. Need I say more?

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-DBF2_4B94E3D0.html

    Forexlive.com reported earlier that there was buying at these levels (when Asia was open). There were offers stacked from 1.37 to 1.375 and when the EUR reached there, apparently there were hedge funds selling some more.

    My opinion on this is that IF there are heavily shorting hedge funds (and the numbers indicate that it is only about 1 – 2% of the total EUR market), that they are hedging any move up with other futures and options. I think the short squeezes is coming from those less sophisticated, or more extended smaller players, so I’m not looking for any monster ramp – just surges in both directions (especially when stops are run). I like this time of action intra-day because it suits my style and helps me divorce my trading from any bias beyond the current trade.

    EUR Daily:
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-C30A_4B94E441.html

    EUR 13 min (warning: Spaghetti).
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-AA5C_4B94E47C.html

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems we're all waiting for the open to see what the scoop is today. “Looks” like market wants a little breather after last week's big surge. Will that translate into a doji day, or something more negative? Here's to the latter as most posters here are bears, including my underwater self.

  • tywo

    this market will reverse… i did a long term count over the weekend, and this bear market is not over… patience is key 😉

    http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/sp-500-w

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm afraid your doji will come true.
    No economic news.
    Trapped bears, with most bulls no need to sell.

  • skynard

    What? No mutual fund Monday? Think that the MM's will be trapping the longs now and will sell off this week and possibly next week as well. How far? Thinking that another bear trap below 1044 SPX then off to the races again.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Nothing like a little bear pornography on a Monday morning.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Sorry everyone, but I did take tha weekend off, going out, dancing all night, waking up late, trimming my hair, going out again, resting the afternoon watching a movie, wtching the oscars…

    Felt almost like a person for a change…. but that's over

    HAMSTER TIME

    In a nutshel?

    We broke this line friday, can PPT say mission acomplished too early and we fall hard or is the ride to 1230 a foregone conclusion? “centennial rat” here http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-BED2_4B94F212.html

    Fruitcake

    SPX, a retracement is likely, 1098 could anniunce a new drop, 1125 is the absolute confort for bulls, so they should try keeping it above that line

    SPX:GOLD is at MA hell … again 1.00

    SPX:VIX looks topy… again… but seems difficult to get more than +3% without a drop (+3% in spx:vix is barely nothing)

    in SPX:CPCE friday wouldgive a nice C=1.6 A, and end of party

    VIX went as far as it could without a new low, next stop is VIX 15 unless it turns up with a vengeance… no third choice (lingering some days without a new low is just a pause) 19.4, 21, 22.1 are likely retracements

    If SLV makes a final push of 2% it's shortable, if it breaks friday's low it might also be shortable … if it makes +2.5% it might be a good long

  • Chedly

    Not this time.
    Most bears have given up or have been taken to the cleaners, and so they are pretty dry and not about to fall in another bear trap.
    If this market is going to drop, it will be because the bulls or their PPT allies strike out or decide to book their profits. Then, look out below to 850 on the SPX…

  • johnny

    i think there is no use of analysing mkts and screwing brains , its a fraud mkt , totally artificial

  • gatopeich

    Thanks for the heads up!
    Following your trail, I am still trying to squeeze some statistical meaning from SPX historical data. Currently I am looking at the shorter term, trying to catch any meaningful reversal stats.

    With the 55-day MA, I am drawing the 3 probability peaks I got between MA55 and close price, that is MA55-3.5%, MA55+1.5%, and MA55+6%. See how they interact graphically: http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/3959/jshotf.png

    But I suspect data from 1960 cannot be safely compared with data from 2010. We could do the 'typical' divide by gold price, but I am feeling more like removing old data.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    artificial? maybe, paternless? NO

    Beyond a double top I would probably present a strong case for 1230

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we're at upper ba208 minutes…

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX trying to bounce.

  • johnny

    infinite cases can be presented , but none of them is tradable , believe it or not

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, then do not short 1148.3

  • skynard

    Thought we would be new high by now. What the F!

  • shortcover

    VXX…come on…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    friday we touched the high bb13.2618, usualy th next day it touches again (or close, being 1138 today) and then dojis before a fall (see beguining of may and late august 2009)

  • skynard

    SPX RSI must not exceed 70 or the bears are…..well. Currently falling below 66 @ 65.8. GS trying to lead here.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    everybody MIA? (no offense meant for those still around, just asking)

  • amokta

    Is the price of golden nuggets falling?
    Has anyone made visual contact with P3 yet?

  • skynard

    Nice spinning top on SPX and it's black.

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I think everyone just gave up after Friday and decided to take a break and wait for a few days. Either too much underwater, or just plain saying good bye for a short break.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    that's why I rested the weekend… not invulnerable either

    the trick is taking the blow in time and being ready when you should be down

  • Gold_Gerb

    soylent orange is dead.
    give it up.
    🙁

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I had taken my biggest short trade on thursday at the close since nov 09 and well, that one failed lol. I am not beating myself up over it though, was the right call based on price/volume, patterns. Just did not materialize. Staying in short term mode for the next 6-7 trading days waiting for the market to show me what it wants to do next.

    Considering we have been stuck in a narrow range for 6+ months, its really difficult to try to make any call for a longer term position, heck I am not even able to get 15-20 pt moves locked down without taking huge amounts of risk.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm here, waiting for FAZ to hit 15.39 to buy.

  • MMM___Soylent

    I find it interesting to watch the disconnect between the leveraged ETFs and the underlying – specifically today IWM and TZA.
    TZA is 3x inverse of IWM. It is trading slightly heavier than IWM as bears capitulate and try to get out before they are shafted again. IWM is flat, TZA in negative. Sometimes both are slightly negative – not supposed to happen on an inverse ETF.
    Is this because we are about to turn down, or do they know something all of us bears need to know?

  • shortcover

    it should adjust by the end of the day. seeing that it tracks closing moves x3 reverse…the arb can work during the day as long as you can wrap it up by 4:15 pm.

  • Schwerepunkt

    NY Fed is expanding the counterparties for the reverse repo operations, getting ready to drain liquidity. You'd think market would drop on this news. Of course, the big players all know exactly what the Fed is doing in this regard.

  • BULLBEAR

    why do you think Gs up graded u.s. steel today

  • Nightwind

    gold ain't looking bullish

  • Schwerepunkt

    That's a China and dollar play. Same old shit. God I hope China collapses of its own weight and brings down the political structure with it.

  • skynard

    USD has been gaining all morning.

  • Gold_Gerb

    that's my final hope, a currency upset today.
    swash the markets around.

  • Schwerepunkt

    It's actually weaker since 5:30, but stronger since 9:30.

  • skynard

    Yes, tip the scale

  • Gold_Gerb

    XOM 66.61 – doom
    😉

  • skynard

    Dammit, let's get this F'er below 1125!

  • gmak

    EUR just fell out of bed dropping 30 pips in about 3 seconds. Currently there is a bit of a bounce off of the bottom at 1.3640ish

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil… three words

    chop-chop week

  • bobthehorse

    I am still BobtheBear. Pretty dull day thus far but don't see anything in price actions to suggest I am wrong as yet.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Once again, ES ignoring Euro weakness.

  • gmak

    To explain my madness regarding bar shapes: Today's SPX shape is an inverted “T”. I think it would be useful to know what the probability of getting that lower leg – never mind where the close is – put in place to form the “+” for the bar shape, at least. Also, the odds of it becoming an “Open at the low, Close at the high type of day, no?

    I find it interesting that there was no gap up or down this AM, and that this Monday is ruining the expectations of the majority of the traders (Monday's are always up).

    If today is an up day (close higher than previous close), it will be the 7th green bar in a row. This is getting to extended territory without a correction. And as Schwerepunkt has pointed out, the correlation with the EUR is off the table for now (algos have a new setup?).

  • Schwerepunkt

    J.Stark, German member of ECB rejecting the notion of an EMF.

  • gmak

    EMF?

  • Schwerepunkt

    European Monetary Fund

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bob the bear? and last friday we had a change, ultrabear became ultrabeer… strange days

  • gmak

    And they say news doesn't matter. Tell that to the owners of 1.000s of EUR futures losing $750 per contract off of the open this AM. heh.

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Looking at the equity index charts, we can see a clear upward 12-month trend from “March to March”. A powerful move has been set in motion, and it is highly unlikely that it will reverse in an instant. Strong market trends slowly weaken and typically flash major warning signs before they reverse and cause major damage. The big money is made by those who recognize this, and are patient enough to stick with their positions until the market, and nothing else, tells them it is time to get out http://bit.ly/cOpdKT

  • http://www.bigmovingstock.com bigmovingstock

    McClellan Oscillator getting into nosebleed territory http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD… usually you see a pullback once you get past +50, it's at +69 right now

  • ricebowl

    In other words you're quantifying candlestick patterns. If the patterns aren't bullshit, then stats should prove it.

  • Schwerepunkt

    How about ES not selling off with the Euro and the Euro now catching a bid? This is worse than the correlated risk trade we've been through since last March. At least before, we could trade off the Euro.

  • Gold_Gerb

    great.
    onions.
    😉

  • gmak

    Possibly. It depends on how deep my analysis is  and how many different ways I'm willing to crunch the numbers. I hope to use pattern types in conjunction with the slope of SPX and DMA, along with their relative position to try to come up with about 8 different sub-situations where there may be some effect on the way the bar (or candle) patterns play out.

    ________________________________

  • Nightwind

    xpecting vix to close morning gap

  • I_got_Prechterized

    this shit's just coiling. led again by REITs and financials. this is a conscious effort to destroy every IYR and XLF short that ever dared short those sectors. how could we possibly not test 1150?

  • texpresso

    ES & NQ above overnight and morning ref bars, no red vol (not much green either, but no red). tech crystal ball CSCO very bullish. i mostly moved to cash last week after all the toppy signals, but going more long tech til CSCO sells off

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    roddent bands say 15.11-15.35 but close enough 😉

  • Gold_Gerb

    Can anybody confirm the put/call ratio has mellowed today vs. Friday?
    http://www.cboe.com/Data/IntraDayVol.aspx

  • bananaben

    Totally agree. I'm trying to get out – I'm losing enough at Fridays closing prices. Can't they just give us a little break?

  • gatopeich

    This is like playing poker against a bad bluffer on his lucky day. He bluffs, overbets, then he gets great cards after we are all all-in.

  • gsavli
  • Nightwind

    Possible IHS on VIX 5 min, 18.11 short term target

  • bobthehorse

    The real problem here is that you are going all-in with ace high convinced your opponent has nothing. Why not wait until you have good cards? Like right now.

  • gatopeich

    Yeah, I know. I'm not talking my play but the bulls'.

  • Gold_Gerb

    can't speak to XLF, but XLE looks like it's going back to Friday price (currently)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I don't know if my heart can take these ES 2-pt selloffs. Sheesh.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cpce at very low values

    spx:cpce trying to break minimums?

  • gmak

    2+2+2+2+2 = 10. Not a bad day if you can “swing” it. (not me, I played the EUR fall). The mouse who only takes small bites of the cheese does not attract the attention of the traps (if it cleans up after itself).

  • amokta

    Gold is falling, all around us, Happy Goldmas, everyone!

    (anyone feel this is just a blip?)

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    lol my position keeps on going from +3 to 0, +3, back to 0 lol. Entry via ES at 1140 but no moneyz yet. Looking for 1031 by tomorrow on ES.

  • Nightwind

    Currently 5% short, will add if someone deals me an Ace card.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Just in case that 1141 on SPX was the only touch we'll get, I'm in a small amount of FAZ.

  • gmak

    If SPX is r-testing the “since AUg 17” trend line on my chart, then we will get there I don't know when. To me a “throwover” or clear / re-test takes place within 5 trading days – that may be a bit broad of a definition. If my 55DMA data crunching is any indication, a lot of retracing happens within the 3 days of clearing some hurdle.

    If this follows the odds, then SPX would be at 1110.72 by Friday. Otherwise, it may take another week to get there. If SPX is not trending down by the end of the week, then the odds say it is likely to stay above the 55 DMA for at least 20 – 30 days (the overthrow of a 55 DMA has NEVER been 16 – 20 days since Jan 1, 1961).

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx:cpce is calling the bluff on spx:vix

  • gmak

    ANother interesting point on the shape of the SPX daily bar for today, is that I asked if it would look more like an inverted “T” or a “+” today. IF the inverted “T”s are infrequent, and the “+” more frequent…… especially when the open is near the close from yesterday……

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    yeah been following your statistically reviews and they are quite amazing I have to admit and a lot to it. Great Job there.

    For me the plan was quite simple this morning, either continuation and a nice break higher by 10:30 or the need to consolidate to get back to previous breakout point (which in my opinion is 1131 ES) by tomorrow. There we either make the decision to go lower (unlikely) or remain range bound to work off overbought conditions to make a new high (do not think we will see much of a sell off from the double top, I think it may get away with doing a small retrace intraday).

    Similar to you, IF we break 1131 in the next 2-3 days I think we have a chance to go a bit lower, otherwise up she goes.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did we have a bounce from lower bb?

  • gmak

    More blathering. Just looking at the latest run, I can see in sequence:

    Inverted T
    Ikea alan key
    Inverted T
    Plus sign (close to a T… but)
    Ikea alan key
    Today is starting to look like a +

    I mean, the open close are either close to each other or apart. The path they take to get to that state can create Intra-day trading opportunities. I'm not looking for predictability between bar shapes and longer market direction – I just want some idea of how SPX might move during the day – it makes the other TA more relevant in terms of support and resistance areas.

  • gmak

    I agree. The market can go either up or down. The issue is when it will do each and from what level. It's not the market movement that is necessarily freaking everyone out, but the fact that it moves up and down and takes out stops.

    I'm still looking for a retest of that trend line – around your ES number – as well. Just looking back, I can't believe that it would have become irrelevant. I have the resistance at SPX = 1150ish – which is not that far away. Two easy days could do it. 3 – 4 four off of a re-test.

    I'm watching to see what happens vis a vis the “staying above the 55 DMA” count and how this compares to the historic stats. Will it be an outlier? etc….

    Cheers.

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    “The market can go either up or down” I hate being in this mindset but you are totally right. Generally I try my best to give myself the proper scenarios where one becomes more likely then the other. It used to be easy – now its so difficult to figure out exactly what needs to happen for the market to setup for a move.

    I think thats the biggest frustration everyone seems to have at the moment. And the fact that it almost seems technical patterns that used to give me an edge to define direction, now are being used “against me” to get my stops and take me out of a trade.

    For me, I am really taking it 1-3 days at a time, since that seems to be the only thing working well. Every attempt I make to get positioned for a longer term move seems to end without profits (even on the long side lol)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx:gld at upper BB13,2.618, seldom seen, either heavy drop ahead or rocket mode

  • texpresso

    i follow the philosophy that i never 'guess' what the market will do. i just read what the market is doing. generally, the futures will run up and down between the reference bars, and will continue up or down when they break outside the bars, pretty simple. there is less money per trade to be made reacting than 'guessing', but the percentage of successes is much higher

  • I_got_Prechterized

    dollar is cooperating but equities still remain stubborn. I'm doing ok because GLD is still my biggest short. I still think it's a safer short given it reacts to dollar strength where equities haven't lately.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if we don't bounce from 1136+-1, the levels to watch are 1115, 1100, 1081

  • Gold_Gerb

    given the extreme of 2.618 – I would vote for both [whipsaw]
    see January 20.

  • gmak

    <thumbsup>. That approach suits my style as well.
    IMO, one of the underpinnings of this approach is to keep enough free capital to go through swings against one – until the swing moves back in favour. Stops become less relevant – kind of like catastrophe health insurance. Big deductible – but low low premiums that allow one to rack up savings against the catastrophe. [ only analogy I could think of on short notice. lol.]

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, the 1080's danger zone could be the “last stop for bears before rocket time”

  • Gold_Gerb

    this is wave 4,
    rocket time is wave 5.

  • texpresso

    agreed. must stay very liquid for days like friday morning, or better, the next big red day

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    too many waves 4 from february low…

  • gmak

    🙂

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    Uh-oh. Where will the chumps for IB distribution come from now?

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/fastest-mu

  • skynard

    Oh sh*t! Put those printing presses on 3 shifts now.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    this board- covering their shorts.

  • skynard

    If this huge H&S on SPX is still in play by not making new highs Bob may be right about a reversal here. My target points to 900.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    GS broke 170. It's been straight up for 14 points. What happened to Obama limiting prop trading? What happened to the Volcker rule? broken clock indeed.

  • gmak

    Here is a quote from Bob Janjuah:

    “But for those who do follow/read my work in more detail I want to be crystal clear: If S+P closes above 1120 for the 1st 3 days of this week, 1150 and 1220 are next. If not – if we fall and close below 1120 on 3/4 consecutive closes this week/early next, then the odds are high of a resumption of a downtrend which shud take S+P to sub-1000 over the next mth or so. “

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-ho

    This sure sounds a lot like the number-crunching that I've been doing – vis a vis “days above” the 55 DMA. Who knew?

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    its been a while since I have seen volume this low, one thing is for sure, not going to have much of a sell off if our down moves are so freaking small in terms of size (vol not price).

    Of course this could be the attempt to bring in the last buyers, if there are none left, how can one go higher? All the bears are done (thanks to last week) so now its really just a game of getting a feel on who out there still wants to buy – not seeing many lol

  • kostee

    Middle of March, will be one year from last March bottom. that is were the sell off should start. IRS rule is one year +
    for capital gain. We are about 4000 or so point up from last March lows. Keep your powder handy.

  • Gold_Gerb

    “If a thousand monkies type at a keyboard…”
    err never mind.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    closer to a double top, if H&S it's tilted as hell and target would be closer to 950, small detail, would need a clear break of 1070 to reach neckline

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I stand corrected, as I was typing the last buyers came in lol – biggest move here all day on low volume attempt at breaking support. Based on this we should be making a new marginal HOD

  • gmak

    Please, I did this with only 998 monkeys.

    ________________________________

  • johnny

    mkt somehow defying all logics , totally idiotic mkt to trade with real money

  • amokta

    P3 will continue today, if i am not mistaken (based on a variety of my own proprietry indicators – hey everyone else uses this phrase, when they are talking BS!)

  • kostee

    True, but fear and greed are also not logical

  • Gold_Gerb

    “Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting.”
    -J. Livermore

  • gatopeich

    1070 rings a bell… It's just over the “55DMA -4%” line where SPX likes to ride on downward trends according to my stats (in the line of gmak's).
    But we have some way to go before that happens…

  • gsavli

    yea, we all know how that wise guy ended.

  • Gold_Gerb

    yeah – I wonder if uberbeer survived the weekend.

  • ricebowl

    There should be a drop from here, but don't count on it being a continuation of P3. It may be, but we *may* be headed for new highs. Bias will cause you to stubbornly hold a losing short position all the way up if you're not careful.

    P3 is still on the table, and personally I hope that it plays out…

  • Gold_Gerb

    Yep.
    Have a friend dieing to get out of some financials.
    I'm praying there's a rush for the exits, will crush those evil spec…err nevermind.

  • Gold_Gerb

    what are the odds!?!?
    (yes, I've read your daily posts)
    ;-D

  • johnny

    none of those proverbs are working in this mkt

  • Gold_Gerb

    hmm, rough crowd.
    going into church mouse mode.
    l8ter.

  • Onorio

    I got a EURUSD buy signal in hourly chart!

    Going up??

  • vasiltrade

    2 es sell on stop 1138…stop 1141..great post ,think 1100 soon will see it…very soon!adios guys!

  • MMM___Soylent

    The bottom was one year ago today! Those who got in within a few days of the bottom can start taking their capital gains this week and into the next few weeks. It should spell weakness, at least a little bit for the next few months. Right?

  • Nightwind

    What % of traders actually bought bottom and had the foresight to hold this long? My guess…very few to none.

  • Tronacate

    Exactly……..and there were plenty of people that just held on through the whole mess and are happy with where things are headed……..doubt they are going to sell now.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we're close to fall or HOD time….

  • Nightwind

    I was one of those dumbasses that shorting the hell of it.

  • gmak

    It's bounced off of the LOD – was good for a quick scalp. Support now looks to be below at 1.3622 (TD type of support). 3 min chart shows need a bit more down here to get the “oversold” for another short term rally. Bars are successfully lower than the preceeding in terms of high. Not a rally mode sign yet, IMO.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    IYR breaking out. another sector to add to new high list. I guess XLF is destined there as well.

  • Tronacate

    ES weekly sure looks toppy

  • Tronacate

    IYR…….blows my mind……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    XEU:GLD hit a prety line, so down hard soon or it may get 2.5% up

  • johnny

    what stops them from holding for 1 more year , when any blind knows that 666 will not except if obama is assasinated

  • raised_by_wolves

    Following Gmak's historical-statistical approach in the previous thread, I'm decided to look into the probably of $INDU chopping around this orange trend line. Although this trend line goes back 80 years, I'm going to narrow my analysis to recent history.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    See the white box I've drawn? Those are ten weeks. Nine of those ten weeks spent time below the orange line. Only one week had a low above the orange line. Only three weeks closed above the orange line. Also note the white line. The high of two of those ten weeks was at the white line.

    Now that $INDU has encountered the orange line again, my calculations on a coffee-stained napkin indicate that the probability is high for the tape chopping around for weeks if there is to be a retest of the white line again.

    You've seen my white box, now look at my red box. Options buyers beware. Welcome to Theta Burn In Hell.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • Tronacate

    Everybody says this looks like june '09 again(which makes me think it will not play out the same)………looks more like the top in '07

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    isn't it the other way around? a nice double bottom and the messiah gets his own personal cross to just hang around

  • tradejane

    I've been saying something similar in my own blog and then I got a visit from the Us Department Of The Treasury. Should I be concerned? 😛

  • johnny

    well we all desperately want a crash but we're now convinced that we were the fools of the century

  • Tronacate

    wow

  • Nightwind

    Flat again. If the Vix closes the gap and goes lower…..I'll be back in no man's land

  • Nightwind

    LOL, are you in the US?

  • tradejane

    Well, no. Maybe they were just surfing by and I need to go easy on the tin foil. 😀

  • amokta

    Do you have a blog – if so please let us know the web address!

  • gmak

    🙂
    Depends. Were they wearing Bernanke cardboard masks and handing out money, or did they want money?

  • tradejane

    Erm, no but thanks for asking. (I'm not going to start that stuff.)

  • Tronacate

    Shows how scared “they” are. Now we're paying people to leave their houses……this is so insane…….and the sheeple just keep marching towards the cliff…….iphone in hand

  • johnny

    the current rally will be known as rally of triangles in future , may be it'll soon enter record books, another triangle coming up as i write

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    well stopped out break even @ 1140 – cannot even manage to get 5 pts out of this market lol

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did you see the latest centenial rat?

    could confirm w4 form 2007 ending

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    just on a side note – amazing how SPX is at the days highs when EURUSD is at its lows. I know I know the relationship is over with, really got to starting being more active in FX again.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not sure, yes, we have been had (at least 3 times, end of march, may/july) and now

    but…

  • Tronacate

    No………didn't see it……..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    start of hamster time, start of the thread

  • raised_by_wolves

    I for one won't be buying calls or puts until the tape moves above or below Theta Burn In Hell.

  • amokta

    Just thought you had blog because many people on here do have own blog
    Maybe you can start http://www.hotoptiontradejane.com !!!

  • johnny

    wats the use of buying anything when overnight futures push mkt up in first 10 min and then mkt stays flat for 5 hrs then moves up 5 handles in last 30 min , is this a real mkt , i dont think so , its an artificial mkt to screw every trader

  • raised_by_wolves

    A possibility that I'm seriously considering is that no man's land continues for weeks and weeks like it did between November and January.

  • momac

    I have a question, since we didn't blast through 1142 this morning, is the orange scenario still on?

  • tradejane

    What I'd like to know is if their boss knows they aren't really working. Or maybe that's their job. 😀

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ODFhYjIyM

  • johnny

    in this mkt only one scenario works , and thats citius , altius , fortius , rest all levels are just for mental satisfaction ,anyone trading this mkt should consider putting a shot gun on their head and pull the trigger , it would hurt less

  • momac

    I've definately thought about doing that.

  • raised_by_wolves

    For me, this rally has been tradable at times and untradable at other times. Instead of complaining, I'm going to wait patiently. I'm mentally prepared to panhandle instead of trade for two months. That, or jump in immediately if an opportunity presents itself. Whatever happens, I will not Theta Burn In Hell.

  • Tronacate

    I imagine it's their job……….that is SO wierd……….throw in a few tax protester articles……really juice it up for them

  • raised_by_wolves

    Did you post charts for Mole?

  • momac

    well, at least one thing in our favor, the market didn't gap up 50 points for the normal mutual fund Monday

  • johnny

    mkt is tired , but before it'll falls we'll will be tired i guess

  • yudhisthira

    Is zero light updating today?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    No, I reviewd my count, not a chance in hell, not on orthodox EWT

  • gatopeich

    Amen, bro!

  • Nightwind

    Is EWT in no wave land?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Even if there is to be bullish outcome, there is major resistance that must be overcome. The historic trend lines on $INDU, the weekly 208 MA on $SPX/$VIX, etc. Did you see the orange line on my charts?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it never is… only on nightmare land

  • skynard

    will not be long, Q's are about to roll over on the 60min chart.

  • johnny

    to tell you the truth buddy , i am shorting this mkt via mini futures and will keep doing so whether a new high is made or not , i really dont care that i should book loss if snp moves to 1150 just because a new high is posted , if one year is 60% ++ then next year can be at max flat , if i am wrong then i have no complains in admitting that

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole was anticipating a profit-taking Monday, remember? Based on what he said, the orange scenario is still a possibility, but the probability is low enough in his mind to have already taken it off of his chart. The green scenario awaits confirmation.

  • johnny

    if one is interested in inter mkt analysis then they can overlay usd-cad chart over djia , u'll notice something very unusual..

  • raised_by_wolves

    Cool. The way I like to trade options, it's best for me to remain on the sidelines. If I knew for a certain that the markets were going to sell off but didn't know exactly when they were going to sell off, it would still be better for me to remain on the sidelines.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Note to self: Rats are allergic to multi-sentence comments.

  • texpresso

    when the d-bags on CNBC all announced that they were shorting GS I knew it was headed up

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    U bet!

    seriously, do you consider that a fair comment at ES?

    Most people here comment not only on multi sentence, often on multiparagraphs.

    Thinking of blogs with O in the name?

  • tradejane

    I'm only allergic to weeks of tape chop. Ugh.

    My secret fear is this won't turn until VIX hits 10 again.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    15

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well then, rats must be allergic to wolves.

  • raised_by_wolves

    That's why you're on the sidelines like me, eh?

  • momac

    it is for me, but the market is so slow, it isn't doing much

  • gatopeich

    How's volume today? /ES looks like half since Friday's (And I can't make TOS show volume on SPX)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for the suggestion. I now have DJX/(USD/CAD) on my DJX chart. Now that I have the inverse correlation inverted, I'm wondering if one can be used as a leading indicator for the other. Do they follow each other too closely?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wolves are known to prey upon rats (seldom hamsters)

  • raised_by_wolves

    See, everyone comments on my short, stupid comments. There's little or no indication that anyone has bothered to read my one worthy comment of the day.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Of course, that's because wolves seldom encounter house pets.

  • ricebowl

    It's anemic as always, although it's not exceptionally low.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    going into last hour. it's mutual fund monday, we're within shooting distance of major resistance and all bears are scared shitless. everybody expecting last hour rampjob. would be a perfect time for the MMs tank this shit market. volume is a complete joke again. i think there's more money bet on the superbowl than the equity markets these days.

  • skynard

    Here is some fall, Q's just fell below the zero on the hist .001 and curl on the -DI. See if it's anything.

  • goldpackers

    EMC looks to be spiking out of a 4 month triangle. heavy volume and heavy call buying. HUM!

    PLD also trying to break out.

    BKX to 57

    If so then SPX higher to 1150 to 1180

  • raised_by_wolves

    Or was orange actually blue? Excuse the short-term memory loss.

  • yudhisthira

    thanks, I wasn't sure if I was missing something.

  • yudhisthira

    A little help from euro weakness would be nice right here. Out of sync.

  • goldpackers

    Still holding some april SPY puts but this mkt looks higher. Gonna take some nasty news to stop it. Overbought but no divergences, sentiment not bullish enough. Could have some bond money move to stocks. That is what is needed for a blow off top – little guy buying late.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I’d say SLV is a potential long if it moves above this fib fan:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/1a7117d8-2c97-4e54-9895-100a48762147/00000995.png

    I’d want confirmation that equities are also heading up using Mole’s count:

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010-03-05_spx.png

    Since I’m picky about trades, I’d also want confirmation that SLV is outperforming $SPX; so, I’d need to see the $SPX/SLV overlay on this chart reverse down:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/f5490b13-b137-487e-a293-af024d0d458f/00000996.png

    I’d need those conditions to be meet to entry the trade. To stay in the trade, I’d need $SPX/SLV to close below this 50% fib:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/da9d2cd6-b57c-4852-9394-5a0710696060/00000998.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • raised_by_wolves

    See, I'm not a total hypocrite. Not only did I go back to read Hamster Time, but also I posted a multi-sentence, multi-chart reply on the subject SLV, which I'll repost here for any lazy rats:

    I'd say SLV is a potential long if it moves above this fib fan:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I'd want confirmation that equities are also heading up using Mole's count:

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

    Since I'm picky about trades, I'd also want confirmation that SLV is outperforming $SPX; so, I'd need to see the $SPX/SLV overlay on this chart reverse down:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I'd need those conditions to be meet to entry the trade. To stay in the trade, I'd need $SPX/SLV to close below this 50% fib:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry, I should have mentioned this today – it's updating – just that participation is flat lining.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Oops, I pasted the wrong link (without arrow) for that last one. Here's the right one (with arrow):

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • gatopeich

    That 'bout Theta Burning From Hell?

  • gatopeich

    gmak, we are about to get a perfect cross…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    very interesting this one

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    seems to place SLV clearly in a (iv) of iii down (or of C)

    will have to take some time on this overlay

  • alexdg

    ASCII art, you gotta love'it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    who are you calling an house pet? Hamsters roamed the earth long ago…. and where they lived hamster eating wolves disapeared….

    on a less serious level, could life be as simple as this? remember my november low line I mentioned so long ago?

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/thumb-DCF6_4B95A58A.jpg

    in my book it's still shitzone1 for bulls

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    an extra for you http://www.uploadgeek.com/thumb-6296_4B95C762.jpg

    stay out until the 66-68 chop chop subsides

  • raised_by_wolves

    You linked to the thumbnail-size version. My keen eyes were able to extract a surprising amount of information from it, but you should repost for the sake of others.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • raised_by_wolves

    Once again, you have miniaturized the meal. I could probably be able to reconstruct the channels, but any wave count you have there is lost on me.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    This one??!?!!? http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-6296_4B95C762.html

    this is as good a grab as I can get on my netbook

    and stockcharts is not specialy good on adding text, so I didn't (did you see the one on hamster time? bleurghhh)

    counts are basicaly impossible to mark on that, so I quit long ago

    but I did give you a hint (counts are … flexible) avoid the 66-68 chop chop, it should clarify as we leave that area and there will be enough safe points for you

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for pointing out the chop chop zone. Did you notice that it more or less corresponds with MA(208) to SMAE(208,2.618)?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    How are you assigning breakout versus reversal probabilities?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course it corresponds with MA208, it's also in my chart and is my main reason to establish the lower chop line, as for smae, not using right now (but you have too many lines)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not briliantly, it stoped at ma208 but hasn't risen enough to deny a 5th wave down… the jury is out (why do you think i told you to avoid the chop zone?)

  • raised_by_wolves

    No way, you use the MA 208 too! 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I seem to recal having mentioned most of the ma's a certain cub uses….

    BTW, did you see my “outrageous long” as an hedge for PPT pushing this shit up?

    MBI entry at 5.11, stop at 4.95, potential…. you'd go bananas if you had started using centenial rat bands (p.s. I gave the general numbers on an answer to mole, and unlike ABK, MBI seems to belong to the PPT PUSH CLUB)

    EDIT of course stop<entry =>4.95

  • raised_by_wolves

    Keep in mind that the answer to the question “are there too many lines” may depend on the time frame.

    Also, these so-called too many lines were used (though not solely) for my two most successful trades all time. Moreover, they were not used whatsoever for my six worst trades all time.

    Of course, my previous paragraph doesn't prove anything other than that I haven't screwed up with them yet.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tell me about MBI as a long, but think long long, not tomorrow long. think risk reward (and think that 4.95 breaking might be a reason to drop and reload at 2.35)

    think cub, think

    (and let me know if you agree with this old hamster)

  • raised_by_wolves

    You either mean 4.95, not 5.95, or limit, not stop. Knowing you, you mean stop at 4.95.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Give me a ten good minutes and a bad beer to think this through.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course, stop<entry=>4.95, as mentioned on second message to you and corrected on original

    smart cub!

    now for the steak and gravy?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    centenial rats are 468 weeks (Juglar, business), 208 weeks (Kitchin &elections), 52 weeks (rodent/budget) all on 2.618

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cub, I see you spent more than 20 minutes looking for the bad beer… just drink a good one

  • raised_by_wolves

    Preamble while I continue to think:

    I assume you're already aware that MBI/$SPX has been in ranging tightly YTD. The ratio has remained both below the 52 week MA and above the 13 week MA.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I'm assuming you're already looking for MBI/$SPX to break above the 52 week MA. That would be a good start, but what you really need to have happen is the 13 week MA to cross over the 52 week MA while MBI/$SPX is still moving up. That hasn't happened since pre-GFC.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    More beer is required . . .

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Although the charts are difficult, I checked myself and mbi:spx is above ma13 and ma104, currently heading for ma 208.

    Take into account two points, the stop that was chosen, the fact that this is a possible “ultra sensitive” hedge. based upon growth rotation, from december onwards it has started beating the spx, already above certain interesting lines. Furthermore, either heavy CDS companies and sovereign funds tank (and so does SPX) or those that were heavily CDSed will now jump

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm trying my best to think of some reason why, assuming $SPX breaks out to the upside, MBI could underperform it. Nothing is coming to mind yet.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I agree with your tactic. You need an “ultra sensitive” hedge since you can't buy call options.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'd expect it to over-over-perform, chartwise, logicwise for CDS heavy companies. but glad you didn't find anything either

  • raised_by_wolves

    Chartwise and logicwise, defend your choice of MBI over MTG.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    even for calls I'd love buying OTM calls for MBI, 6 months out

    realy el cheapo calls on MBI (good lotery tickets, good timing)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    MBI is cheaper, closer to stop loss, on weekly, above 2 dailies that still block MGT, better (higher ) 208 weeks, more compressed on 52 weeks, CDS heavy so if “no more problems” jumps more

    mainly the fact that market/PPT took a liking to it, it's poised to rise from here or worst case from 2.3, MGT is hellbound to 0.2 IMHO

    beside, I didn't even think of MGT to start with

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good defense. Try one more. Chartwise, defend the MBI/$SPX against this mystery symbol/$SPX:

    daily
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    weekly
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    quarterly
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1. I can't make head or tails of your charts valuewise,
    2. the weekly is too short
    3. the quarterly has a useless MA (13 quarters is 3 years and 1 quarter, 169 weeks means nothing to me)
    4. [ticker]:SPX doesn't concern me the asme way it concerns you, it's a question of sector/company rotation
    give me the ticker (or not, I haven't slept yet), don't worry I don't cheat

  • raised_by_wolves

    1. compare MBI nominal (ooh la la, nested channels) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    and ticker nominal (well established trend line) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    2. live with it
    3. improvise 😉
    4. tell you after we sleep

  • raised_by_wolves

    You linked to the thumbnail-size version. My keen eyes were able to extract a surprising amount of information from it, but you should repost for the sake of others.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • raised_by_wolves

    Once again, you have miniaturized the meal. I could probably be able to reconstruct the channels, but any wave count you have there is lost on me.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    This one??!?!!? http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-6296_4B95C762.html

    this is as good a grab as I can get on my netbook

    and stockcharts is not specialy good on adding text, so I didn't (did you see the one on hamster time? bleurghhh)

    counts are basicaly impossible to mark on that, so I quit long ago

    but I did give you a hint (counts are … flexible) avoid the 66-68 chop chop, it should clarify as we leave that area and there will be enough safe points for you

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for pointing out the chop chop zone. Did you notice that it more or less corresponds with MA(208) to SMAE(208,2.618)?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    How are you assigning breakout versus reversal probabilities?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course it corresponds with MA208, it's also in my chart and is my main reason to establish the lower chop line, as for smae, not using right now (but you have too many lines)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not briliantly, it stoped at ma208 but hasn't risen enough to deny a 5th wave down… the jury is out (why do you think i told you to avoid the chop zone?)

  • raised_by_wolves

    No way, you use the MA 208 too! 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I seem to recal having mentioned most of the ma's a certain cub uses….

    BTW, did you see my “outrageous long” as an hedge for PPT pushing this shit up?

    MBI entry at 5.11, stop at 4.95, potential…. you'd go bananas if you had started using centenial rat bands (p.s. I gave the general numbers on an answer to mole, and unlike ABK, MBI seems to belong to the PPT PUSH CLUB)

    EDIT of course stop<entry =>4.95

  • raised_by_wolves

    Keep in mind that the answer to the question “are there too many lines” may depend on the time frame.

    Also, these so-called too many lines were used (though not solely) for my two most successful trades all time. Moreover, they were not used whatsoever for my six worst trades all time.

    Of course, my previous paragraph doesn't prove anything other than that I haven't screwed up with them yet.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tell me about MBI as a long, but think long long, not tomorrow long. think risk reward (and think that 4.95 breaking might be a reason to drop and reload at 2.35)

    think cub, think

    (and let me know if you agree with this old hamster)

  • raised_by_wolves

    You either mean 4.95, not 5.95, or limit, not stop. Knowing you, you mean stop at 4.95.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Give me a ten good minutes and a bad beer to think this through.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course, stop<entry=>4.95, as mentioned on second message to you and corrected on original

    smart cub!

    now for the steak and gravy?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    centenial rats are 468 weeks (Juglar, business), 208 weeks (Kitchin &elections), 52 weeks (rodent/budget) all on 2.618

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cub, I see you spent more than 20 minutes looking for the bad beer… just drink a good one

  • raised_by_wolves

    Preamble while I continue to think:

    I assume you're already aware that MBI/$SPX has been in ranging tightly YTD. The ratio has remained both below the 52 week MA and above the 13 week MA.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I'm assuming you're already looking for MBI/$SPX to break above the 52 week MA. That would be a good start, but what you really need to have happen is the 13 week MA to cross over the 52 week MA while MBI/$SPX is still moving up. That hasn't happened since pre-GFC.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    More beer is required . . .

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Although the charts are difficult, I checked myself and mbi:spx is above ma13 and ma104, currently heading for ma 208.

    Take into account two points, the stop that was chosen, the fact that this is a possible “ultra sensitive” hedge. based upon growth rotation, from december onwards it has started beating the spx, already above certain interesting lines. Furthermore, either heavy CDS companies and sovereign funds tank (and so does SPX) or those that were heavily CDSed will now jump

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm trying my best to think of some reason why, assuming $SPX breaks out to the upside, MBI could underperform it. Nothing is coming to mind yet.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I agree with your tactic. You need an “ultra sensitive” hedge since you can't buy call options.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'd expect it to over-over-perform, chartwise, logicwise for CDS heavy companies. but glad you didn't find anything either

  • raised_by_wolves

    Chartwise and logicwise, defend your choice of MBI over MTG.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    even for calls I'd love buying OTM calls for MBI, 6 months out

    realy el cheapo calls on MBI (good lotery tickets, good timing)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    MBI is cheaper, closer to stop loss, on weekly, above 2 dailies that still block MGT, better (higher ) 208 weeks, more compressed on 52 weeks, CDS heavy so if “no more problems” jumps more

    mainly the fact that market/PPT took a liking to it, it's poised to rise from here or worst case from 2.3, MGT is hellbound to 0.2 IMHO

    beside, I didn't even think of MGT to start with

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good defense. Try one more. Chartwise, defend the MBI/$SPX against this mystery symbol/$SPX:

    daily
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    weekly
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    quarterly
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1. I can't make head or tails of your charts valuewise,
    2. the weekly is too short
    3. the quarterly has a useless MA (13 quarters is 3 years and 1 quarter, 169 weeks means nothing to me)
    4. [ticker]:SPX doesn't concern me the asme way it concerns you, it's a question of sector/company rotation
    give me the ticker (or not, I haven't slept yet), don't worry I don't cheat

  • raised_by_wolves

    1. compare MBI nominal (ooh la la, nested channels) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    and ticker nominal (well established trend line) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    2. live with it
    3. improvise 😉
    4. tell you after we sleep