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Locking In Some Profits
52

Locking In Some Profits

by The MoleOctober 13, 2017

While Europe Germany is experiencing an economic boom despite a strengthening Euro (how wrong was I on that one!) it seems that the U.S. economy continues to be mired in problems. Core CPI numbers were just released and settled below the Fed’s 2% mandate for the sixth month in a row. Not surprisingly the Dollar got pummeled in response (bad economy = dovish Fed) which on the other hand caused a welcome boost on several of our ongoing campaigns. Let’s review the futures followed by forex:

2017-10-13_soybeans_update

Our saint like patience with soybeans has finally been rewarded and after a massive spike like this I can’t help but lock a good portion of the MFE. Trail now at ~1.25R and if I’m getting stopped out today I’m not going to worry about it as the roll over is looming next week.

2017-10-13_ZN_update

10-year bond futures – here I’m a bit more conservative with my trail as I see long term potential. Stop now at ~1.25R and hopefully having left enough room to survive a late session shake out. Absolutely love the daily formation which looks extremely bullish now.

2017-10-13_natgas_update

Natgas – a.k.a. the widow maker. Well, not this time, ladies – I’m advancing my trail to 0.75R and I think there’s enough momo left to stay in the game until next week.

2017-10-13_crude_update

Crude also getting out of the gate – that short term formation had caught my interest and thus far seems to be resolving as hoped. Stop at break/even so we’re in good shape.

2017-10-13_NZDUSD_update

On the forex side we have NZD/USD which is now being trailed at 0.75R. That’s a beautiful reversal on the daily panel and if it can make it > that NLBL at 0.71671 then we may have ourselves a runner here.

2017-10-13_AUDUSD_update

Also locking in about 0.75R on the AUD/USD after a push to 1R MFE. Also great looking daily formation – I’m jazzed!!

2017-10-13_AUDNZD_update

AUD/NZD unfortunately got stopped out – fortunately it was at break/even! 😉

2017-10-13_USDJPY_stop_out

USD/JPY just had to be the wet blanket. I guess these days if in doubt bet against the Dollar. Stop out at ISL and I think we may be looking at a more extended reversal here. Which means no long campaigns here for the near term future.

man_with_meat2

Looks like the ole’ Mole is going to be eating meat this weekend and I hope you guys won’t be stuck at the salad bar. If you’re not a subscriber and missed out on any of the campaigns above then this is for you:

Shameless Plug

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a full subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. FYI – a Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tomcat

    Short $CL 51.9. Stop 52.5

  • ridingwaves

    Inflation-according to the fed-cpi its non existent…..please tell them to come and rent, buy or lease a roof over your head in whacked out Cali….while we shout in the streets “we are a sanctuary state”

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is why American’s greatest fear has become of their governments officials, Fed independence obviously viewed as a sham.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/111066340540b8ea16b64cca21989a882e2b90dc1d54a4fe2da9a1bb6b94f34b.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    BTW, that’s an interesting micro flash crash spy. Some of my equity shorts still holding.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    short cover VZ @ 48.00

  • Julie

    Hi GG POT patience pays !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Good job GG
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hummm… why’s that?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    only Yoda smokes pot, check with him.
    Har.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s Friday.

  • Julie

    GG Not only Friday But ….. Friday the 13th ….. Yipes !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well that explains it then, 13 is my lucky number.

    http://www.tshirtvortex.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/casualfridaythe13th.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    nice find…
    china growth figures helping CL here….is a run to 58-59 coming https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd2400adc7bde7309453ff3c15716a497a24cfb87bb55be7b2e6ec3fb4e6313b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ok, I’m outta here.

    Apparently, it’s time to test drive some cars.
    I HATE car dealers, sheesh.

    Julie, you have the Conn.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Have A Great Weekend GG
    JULIE

  • Julie

    RW I posted this chart USO yesterday …. Looking for 10.75 and 11.25. Stated a possible long with a bullish close above 10.29 …. Will wait for close GG is correct that it is Friday … If I take a long it will be a small position JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/435f4603b872904239a8458e372d91032cdfda10da1bab427808d03345dff097.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    12.50 13 is doable 10.65 some resistance

  • Mark Shinnick
  • OJuice

    For the conversation on oil, I’m out of pocket so I don’t have any charts to post.

    We are at the neckline of a H&S pattern on /CL ($51). Bullish P&F. Hourly trend up.

    On the bear side, later Oct and through Nov is seasonally weak period for oil. I did a cursory check and $WTIC hasn’t hit its lower 20 period BB yet this month. Since 2000, I believe 14/16 instance, lower BB was at minimum touched. 2/16 instances trend up month with no 20 period BB contact.

    If the hourly up trend can hold on, those high level targets look good. If not, a trip to $48 would be reasonable and within the confines of the current up trend.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m getting a bit worried about the lack of participation here. It’s been gradually dropping off over the past year and I’m starting to wonder if it may be time to retire the blog. Working hard to keep things interesting, but I have to admit that competing with social media and all the clickbait out there is getting pretty old.

  • OJuice

    I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you did. I would argue it might be worth shorter posts on the daily to keep the routine, with the expectation that there will be a decent up tick in traffic when US equities bull run ends.

  • Julie

    Hi OJ Thank You for your comment on oil USO mid channel on post below IMO if a bullish close above mid channel then bullish bias. … IMO holding 10.29 crucial Just Saying OJ Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Crucial area indeed. Today is essentially a small break out with a back test of support. Trick is, the dirtiest patterns in my opinion are the H&S breakout/breakdown that immediately reverse. We are exactly at this point on /CL. So Monday could be a ripper and I’m 50/50 on where it will go. Just gonna look for whichever low risk entries present and try to tip toe into a nice winner.

  • Mulv

    you’re long realized vol in equities as a trading blogger? terrible trade! what’s the correlation between RV and site traffic?

  • Julie

    Mole You work hard and I appreciate everything you do . Whatever decision you make I accept with gratitude. There is complacency in the market which as OJ reflects possibly on the blog also. This too shall pass Mole. Hang in there Chief ….. Remember Your Blog is Great with excellent traders and VERY DECENT PEOPLE ! You would not believe some of the other blogs esp. the one that I came from. THANKS MOLE !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    central bankers….better off calling them central wankers…debtpushers they are…

  • ridingwaves

    take a sojourn……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    its a tough battle. the hot dogs are swimming in BTC most likely. recommend a monkey poll. i’d still showup if it was biweekly.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Your maybe just suffering another of the many CB harms. This environment is insane and going to its effects might be regretted. Maybe ease up, but you and the blog would be sorely missed to drop it altogether.

  • Julie

    SPX Creeper trend with embedded Stochs closing above the daily 5 ema since 3rd week of Sept. Next week is Opex ! Good Grief a freight train. I would like to point out when the CNN Fear and Greed Index tops in Extreme Greed as recently 95 a correction is near. I have a very small nibble SDS A bearish close below the trend line and the 5 ema will add. Mole and Everyone Have A Great Weekend ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/17d47d99a430dd5977075071edd02e194d41c8aa8971de8e9a558600bd8b9bec.jpg

  • Julie

    SPX Weekly Chart Pattern recognition ….RSI above 70 has presaged pullbacks prior two times JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d2379e9a2b76a395dfa982efb3fb901384da161b26133e199f35a4498d3117c.jpg

  • Julie

    Possibly printing a weekly spinning top today
    JULIE

  • Julie

    $RUT A Bear Flag possible pullback to the daily 13 or 21 ema ? Watching this “Baby” JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/00c3cc3072e4b5c1128482a5a4a2493444c5d6a648dd90fa2e41cc24977a7437.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe this gets somewhere…
    https://youtu.be/A_sY2rjxq6M

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its one of the shorts I’m still nursing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    getting close to Market close.

    PC&G – are you kidding ME?
    oh, maybe they started the fires..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCG&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p51329059444

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could it be that Reality still has a chance?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love doing the posts as long as people appreciate it. But most people would probably leave if it wasn’t on a daily basis, that’s how the cookie crumbles.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t get me wrong, I love you guys and shutting it down would break my heart. It’s just that there is constantly money to be made and sometimes to me it looks like as if a lot people have given up or have washed out. We do need new blood to be honest but I just don’t have time for promotional efforts and marketing on top of my trading, my blogging, my coding duties, etc. etc.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    RV?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    YEAH, that is really the strange thing about it. As soon as the market drops people usually crawl out of the woodwork but guys, we are in a generational bull market and we may still be in one for a few more years. I don’t know why retail loves down markets so much when bull markets are so much easier to trade.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, console yourself by the fact that car dealers LOVE suckers like you 😉

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a9942ae1f8f4148400fedd93c164a88c935a0ef6290164f1de5d348359ab4c1.jpg
    You should not stop your great observations.

    You should however stop thinking that stock markets go up and down all the time.

    They dont, they go up up up up up and then down.

    Attached is sp500 on logaritmic scale since 1950.

    Which side would you be on that time scale? Bear or Bull?

    The red line is 7.6% yearly return.

    The red line is actually American industrial and social development since 1950s

    And the red line is actually the whole point about having a stock market …

    Stock markets are not a hobby, they are the fundaments of western societies.

  • Mary

    for many, including me, it is a fear of being the last sucker to buy. That is why buying the bull is hard. But oh, to pick that top and sell it … that would make anyone’s day …catch that long, fast ride down … then take all of those profits and ride the bull back up … from the beginning … not the end …

  • Mulv

    Realized volatility!

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I just did a quick video on the bitcoin breakout
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACmEYiUkcyQ

  • Julie

    SPX Weekly chart posted below the weekly printed a spinning top. Weekly spinning tops are usually a wedge as seen below in daily chart 1 month . So a wedge is forming with a negative boll band divergence accompanied by negative divergences MACD 5,34,5 and CCI(20) Licking my chops to add to a small short probe (SDS) The daily chart below I stated I was going to add to my short probe with a bearish close below the daily 5 ema and upper trend line depicted in daily chart posted below. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89ba77e1d80f4990b8cedf35d3ffb1ba24ee46a9b60cd6b42c1dd8fa668924c7.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Wave_surfer

    I appreciate the work you do and share.
    If it is getting discouraging doing so much work, for so little.
    You could consider the idea of doing it 3 times a week. Maybe a weekend report to give us an idea of where we are and then maybe a Tuesday, Thursday article.
    I imagine most that are here, would gladly stay and having a weekend and Tuesday, Thursday would be much better than you burning out or getting bored and stopping altogether.
    As for me, I will read what you are willing to share.