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Long The Dollar
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Long The Dollar

by The MoleOctober 6, 2009

With much talk about the imminent demise of the Dollar abound my demented mind sees a possible long opportunity in the DXY right now. Let’s review:

As of 12:05am the DXY dropped all the way to 76.43 – which according to 2sweeties’ DXY retracement levels calculator is only a few ticks away from a high frequency long RL:

There you have it – should this level fail the next RL is at 75.94 – quite a bit away and if that happens we’re bears are in a world of hurt.

One more chart to consider is the 2.0 BB on my EUR/USD chart – yes, it might go higher here. But consider that we’re outside the BB plus we have a pretty good RL at hand it’s not the worst setup I’ve seen.

So, let’s see what works better – headlines and opinion pieces in the MSM, or a proven statistical reversal odds calculator. My money is on the latter 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • MariAroma

    One very interesting site I've found recently is ttheory.com by Terry Laundry who's practiced his art for 35 years and back-tested to the '30's. He posts a free Sunday update with pdf chart to download, along with an MP3 audio commentary to download.

    Also occasional daily update when warranted, like today. He says we reversed up today with the next high around mid-Oct. Then he expects a pullback of 8-15 per cent over weeks/months before continuing this current bull to August 26, 2010.

    He freely admits that he could be wrong, but claims his methods have not failed since the '30's

  • QevolveQ

    solid post, thanks. could you suggest a proxy for getting long the dollar outside of actual currency trading? i've seen folks mention UUP. there's also the CurrencyShare ETF's like FXE, FZF, FXA, etc. that i suppose could be traded in baskets. i'm looking for the most efficient, least costly method of mimicking the DXY if anyone has suggestions.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    could be close
    http://screencast.com/t/iD2RI8wR
    it is 3AM in LA – do u ever sleep???

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    was not he the one who started with Ed Seykota?

  • molecool

    Ah, a trend trader amongst our midst :-)

  • malusDiaz

    Feedback please:

    http://alturl.com/228q

    Bulls live above the averages, bears live below.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ATUUUUUUU!!!!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you call that “live”?

  • rhae

    Hey DDT, I think think Bull scare might be do for some exhaustion as td shifts from momo to trend mode… I will be watching the strong resistance zone just above….
    http://screencast.com/t/MsrcUsLYbm

  • malusDiaz

    I know it's kinda messy, but it's what I've got to work with, I'm already loaded with OCT SPY 100 put's From .61 (bought) -> .30-> 1.50 -> .54

    It's been a hell of a ride for this fledgling rat!

  • ropey

    just a braindump, i'm keeping a beady eye on that gap created at the selloff last week ~1054 – the gaps have been filling pretty well recently…and looking for a potential backtest of the broken support before rolling over.. AA will be a trigger for the markets next move whether up or down….that's my simpleton take.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we'll know by midday tomorrow/early Wednesday

  • MariAroma

    Not that I can tell, David, and think he's too old to have done that. Marty Schwartz, legendary trader and author of the “Pit Bull”, has high praise for Terry Laundry.

    Disclosure: No connection by 'lil ol' me to anybody.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Did not mean it is relation to your charts – was kinda spiritual moment…a lot of spiritus and no sante

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    My mistake – Schwartz that was

  • grednfer

    What is interestesting tonight, it that even though the $ is tankin, and gold is responding to that….and tbills a little and VERY nice retracement (61%) on the Euro …….but the equity futures really are not.

    Maybe the upward direction in equities reach a point diminishing returns with regards to $ destruction.

    Maybe the movement in the $ is the selloff before the upward thrust.

    Never a dull moment.

  • mattco

    Futures really start moving 30 min before Europe opens. Before then it is just chop IMO.

  • grednfer

    They used to before. 6E and gold and treasuries are having no problem responding in real time……..its feels different.

  • mattco

    You're right. Something is going on. I said earlier, at some point a falling dollar becomes negative for equities. I am not sure if we are there yet but something strange is going on. Any idea what it is?

  • ultrabear

    Woke up early for some reason and delighted to find my nuts in an AUDUSD vice – I think we need a new word as ramp doesn't quite seem to cover it…

  • SlowDownFast

    USD:

    76.36

    I am nervous.

  • grednfer

    I don't know but with a $ move of this size ES should be up 5 points…..not .5 points.
    Oil is not raging up either and should on a dollar move…..unless the whole thing is just some AH head fake…..suspect anyway.

  • humble1 ™

    thanks for the reminder. i am a TL fan and like to see his work confirm “my” electic system. 10/13-10/14 is also my first important date window for an october high, though 10/30 might be the real deal.

    fwiw.

  • malusDiaz

    What about 1015?

  • horace_kent

    RBA raisin rates…….gold making a new high on that announcement…the jobs report on friday was reason 203924304923 that bad econ news = fed on hold, killing the dollar, and bidding everything else – tasty reversal 8:35 got all the dollar longs spooked.

    there is only 1 trade now………long/short the dollar……..or fed on hold/fed getting “hawkish”……….blah blah blah……

    talk of another stimulus/porkulus………..the only people who want the dollar saved are the peasants and the asians……and currently only the asians have any political sway in DC, but not enough for the upcoming election season.

  • MariAroma

    “Three Government Reports Point to Fiscal Doomsday” by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.10-05-09 at
    http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/three-government

    “INSANITY!

    “And, unfortunately, that’s precisely the situation we’re in today: Three recently released government reports now point to fiscal doomsday for America.”

  • horace_kent

    it hasn't even been 40 years since the last currency crisis.

    i don't expect anyone to learn a damn thing from this one either.

  • horace_kent

    when it rains………lame cliches fall from heaven……….

    check drudge.

    should keep a bid beneath EUR/USD throughout the morning.

  • hank30

    A lot of bears who missed this rally are starting to convince themselves to buy any pullback. When in fact, they've waited too long. I can't tell you how many traders are starting to believe we are heading to higher levels. The dollar depreciation is another sign of a troubled economy. Last week we saw a big sell off on the Jobless claims number, a possible indication that the trade is on against a recovery based on a falling dollar. Some correlations may be starting to dissappear.

  • tradejane

    Don't shoot the messenger, but it seems the encore is here…at least in Germany. Who knows, there might be time for bears to say a few last words at the US market open. :-/

  • humble1 ™

    fwiw: my economic proposal for another round of fiscal stimulus …

    http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?m

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Wow, dollar just showed a sharp rally against sterling……anyone have any ideas what caused that ?

  • humble1 ™

    saudi CB head denied rumors of secret talks with russians and chinese to replace the dollar as the oil currency.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    OK, thanks humble……Dollar index move didn't look as dramatic but the move against sterling is very sharp…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/iyBbXMUJAe30

    EUR/USD lets see how this triangle resolves itself….

    also keep in mind at some point the USD and Equities will stop correlating to each other.

  • goldpackers

    I believe we just completed wave 4 of a diagonal in the spx. Wave 1 began on 8-17 and was ~ 60 points in length. Wave 3 began on 9-2 and was 88 points in length. Wave 4 bottomed Friday and if it equals wave 1 then it will double top at 1080. Wave 1 was 9 days so that would put the top on 10-15 +/- 2 days. The spx then collapses to 978.51 where the diagonal began.

    The low at 1020 on 10-2 was a perfect trendline from the 8-17 and 9-2 lows.
    A close below 1020 would invalidate the count.

  • goldpackers

    Long FAZ and SRS so will wait out the rally to 1080 if my count is correct. Bought jpm calls yesterday as hedge. GS lifting the financials one last time so their buddies can get out and leave the public holding the bag again.

    Big Gann days on 10-8/9 so I can't rule out a top there instead of 10-15. .618 of 9 days = 5.5 and falls on 10-9.

  • ultrabear

    Let me guess – that means we should…. buy everything?

    lol

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    The dollar still has a lot of room to weaken IMHO. With Australia hiking their interest rates and maybe other countries could be ready to do so.

    Here is a chart of FXE, showing that the uptrend is still intact and is on the verge of breaking out.
    http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/2009/10/watch-eu

  • goldpackers

    Could this be like 87?

  • goldpackers

    10-16 and 10-19 are a Friday and Monday again with the dollar under pressure as in 87.

  • goldpackers

    Dxy looks 75.9 to 76 even again

  • ultrabear

    Let's see what happens when we hit the upper channel.

    http://screencast.com/t/VRaAgJlq

  • C's & 3's

    Seems dollar emotions are at an extreme again. Isn't that typical of the end of wave 2s? They seem worse than at the bottom.

    For shits and giggles I inverted the EUR/USD chart into USD/EUR. I nice falling wedge. http://www.screencast.com/users/Ed638/folders/J

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Mole it would really, really help the dollar's case if they stopped selling 180 billion in T-bills every week.

  • ultrabear

    Ok, so the Australian PM pumps up interest rates from a 49-year low “emergency” rate of (snort) 3.25% by a MASSIVE 0.25% and suddenly the carry trade is back on?

    Reasons to suspect not:

    Interesting year long trendline: http://screencast.com/t/QAeC70Ov
    Possible ending diagonal (if you ignore the fact that waves (i) and (iv) are blatantly 5 waves): http://screencast.com/t/kpbX9B5LIH

  • C's & 3's

    So far, the DAX has failed to overlap by .05 of a point.

  • Carl V

    Good morning! New high for gold…; non confirmed by oil, stocks and currencies but will they follow and will gold hold?? I have no clue at all.

  • springheel_jack

    Well SPX is at 1051 or so on the futs, so I'd like to say a couple of words about rising wedges, as it is a confirmed rising wedge which most supports the very short term bearish case IMO:

    From Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns:

    Throwbacks/pullbacks: 63% of bear wedges that have broken downwards will return to retest the lower channel of the bear wedge. The lower channel of the bear wedge is at 1060 by my reckoning last night.

    When the lower channel of the rising wedge is retested, the market may turn back and can even break through the upper channel before resolving downwards. The upper channel of the bear wedge is at 1100.
    However IMO at least a short position should not be maintained inside the body of the rising wedge because the rising wedge can also be a bullish continuation pattern, and busted patterns (one that has first broken out in the other direction), perform better than classical ones, so in that case this would be a very expensive bear trap. When the lower channel line is broken again would be the best time to re-enter the short position.

    Where the lower channel line is retested, the average performance of the bear wedge declines markedly, so the average performance of a down breakout from a falling wedge in a bear market will fall from -29% to -14%. -14% in this instance would indicate to about 975. That does not mean however that the full target of the wedge at 875 will not be reached.

    Only closing prices are important here.

    It does look very much now as though we will re-test the lower channel line at 1060, and may well close in that region today. If so, that will give us a low risk short from near the lower channel line, which should be covered if the SPX closes back inside the rising wedge. If the SPX does not re-enter the wedge, which IMO at least, it won't on a closing basis, then there is a low-risk short here to the 980/990 area, with a higher risk short to the 875.

    These patterns tend to resolve quickly, so if there is a strong rally after the move down begins, then it is probably best to cover your short positions & wait for clarification.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Nice falling wedge and great basing pattern (in my book, a nearby double bottom, with second one a little higher—-that is a springboard)…..

    TOS is hunting my stops more actively than in the past…..damn you Ameritrade!

  • humble1 ™

    amazing how ms. market keeps the bears/shorts in. now a move above SPX 1100 is almost expected and could still be bearish.

    did you happen to notice the success ratio of the bearish wedge and its rating among patterns?

  • springheel_jack

    I did, it barely qualifies as a high probability pattern with a success rate only slightly over 80%. One of the lowest rated high probability patterns.

  • springheel_jack

    Looking closely at the confirmed rising wedge pattern, I see the lower channel line at 1062 today and rising at about two points per day.

  • Carl V

    What about an expanding leading (down) diagonal? This is not from me, it is from Kenny……
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SssPFepqh

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up
    When I see DXY falling, equities rising, commodities rising, I think that someone has created a truckload of money in USD and put it through the leverage machine to create even more virtual USD – which has then been thrown at various asset classes. I don't buy into the argument that a falling USD makes equity prices rise because it has to maintain the same price from the foreign investors' perspective. The price rises because a supply /demand imbalance is temporarily created and it needs to be redressed. The imbalance comes about as a result of more USD entering the financial system and looking for return.

    Equity
    Asia was mainly green around 1%, with some minor markets up almost 2%. Europe is roaring, up over 1.5% (Dax = 1.65%; FTSE = 1.58%). This suggests that SPX will run as well – and the ES is confirming this in pre-market action. WHY? The MSM will say that Oz raised rates – the first major economy to do so since the crisis began – and that this is causing a bid on risk assets (equities, commodities etc). I would suggest that a truck load of USD has been put into the system and leverage has created a tonne of USD “money” that is now chasing assets.

    FX
    DXY is down below the statistical reversal point mentioned above at 76.353; This is what happens when you print more USD and grow them through leverage. CAD, JPY, EUR are stronger. GBP is weaker – interesting! And yet there is a solid bid under the FTSE.
    Oz raised rates and the AUD is apparently on fire. Oz also signals that rates will probably continue to go up. If you're a resource economy and between ETFs and China agriculture co-ops, your output is being chased by speculators and not used in production – your economy is going to be over-run with currency unless you sterilize it. How you sterilize it is by issuing .gov debt – and that means that rates need to rise to attract investors away from the speculative assets.

    NEWS
    Oz raises rates.
    Obama is thinking about how to get the economy going without a second stimulus.
    The Porsche family is no longer on Germany's top 10 list of wealthiest (brief moment of silence…..)

    Data
    17:00 ABC consumer confidence.
    Tomorrow is MBA mortgage applications and the monthly budget statement, consumer credit.
    Thurs is Initial Jobless claims.

    SPX
    Today looks like another up day (duh). There is no news one way or another, so this rally is based on liquidity, IMHO.
    The mid bollinger (21 day moving average essentially) is at 1049.29, and I expect that it might provide some resistance to the euphoria of green shoots from Australia (again, the rates, IMHO, had to go up for Oz to sterilize all those USD washing up on their shores as speculators buy commodities and resources).

    My BIG YELLOW upper trend line is at 1074ish (SPX) and the top bollinger is just above that at 1081. As you are probably aware by now, I see TA as providing a risk management structure. To me, there is no direction in the market right now – until it either gets above BIG YELLOW, or gets below 1014 (home of the FIB and two trend lines crossing).

    ES
    There is a big cup or saucer that has formed on the 5 min ES. It began around Oct 1st at 7AM and is trying to complete today. I don't believe that cup and handle is relevant on a short time frame – but there it is anyway. We should complete the cup today, and then the handle tomorrow – suggesting a bit of a retrace then. Traditional cup and saucer (longer term i.e. 1 day charts) then take off on a rocket launch up to duplicate the depth of the bowl. Now there is supposed to be a volume angle to this as well – but I don't know it because this is not an important indicator TO ME.

    ES begain to ramp slowly at Europe's open and really took off at around 4:30 AM EDT. I would bet that the DAX ramped around then as well, and the DXY took a hit. Just a supposition without even looking.
    We've been flat (more or less) since then, and TD Pressure is trending down, suggesting a reload to keep going up.
    Pivots:
    R2: 1050.50 – looks like this is possible today
    R1: 1043.50 – Didn't even slow ES down overnight
    Neutral: 1031.50 – just a memory.
    S1: 1024.50
    S2: 1012.50

    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.4721 – now acting as support for the EUR. Went back and forth over from midnight to 4:30 AM (what a coincidence equity markets!). High was 1.4749;
    R1: 1.4648
    Neutral: 1.4633 – really not worth putting any other pivots. The powers that be are doing a Sorceror's apprentice on the USD, and that is all you need to know for today.

    Summary:
    Liquidity-induced risky asset price run ups, until distribution starts – maybe tomorrow if the short-term cup and handle idea has any merit; maybe today if enough fools rush in to equities.

    Cheers.

  • Joe8888

    SPX Daily Chart,,,resistance levels…1050=1051,,,Upper channel resistance,,,

    Today,better be a Gap N Crap,

  • gmak

    My opinion is that they have to raise rates and jawbone that rates may go up more in order to set the stage for sterilization (removal) of all that extra currency coming in, in the form of resource purchases by speculators.

    Speculation only works if you have access to friendly leverage.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Well Moleeeeeeee we cracked that RL level now @ 76.364 so I guess we are due for a world of hurt, as Joe mentioned if we close above 1051 then us bears be toast (burnt toast that is)

  • gmak

    Selling T-bills is bullish for the USD because it removes USD from circulation. The problem is the FED creating USD out of thin air and getting it into the financial system where leverage creates even more USD to chase risky assets.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    morning Joe, good stuff :) now let us pray :-)

  • Styrfart

    aooohch, I just added to my bear position in industrial cert. :-) Love to be spanked!

  • Joe8888

    Yeah,,, I am happy to see us rally into the Pivot date ( October 7-8-),,, but easy does it,,a close above the Channel.
    would not! ,,be good…,,,,We need Doji,,,i would like that…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Heaaay stry I hope we pop then drop quite quickly, but today's close will be the tell, if we close above 1051 area, watch your shorts don't fall off…LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Is the the 7th yet?????????????????????? LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    After hours futures have overlapped even the most bullish of the bearish counts. We can allow this during after hours, and even during a brief period at the open, so long as the cash indexes don't get that overlap. If we do, the bearish count is toast. I know, not what we want to hear, but that is life.

    Skål!

  • chumprop

    It looks to me like we are still in a descending channel from 9/17/09. It seems as though we could open around 1052 SPX and go down from there.

    I may be stupid, but I plan to short at the open if we open anywhere below 1047 on the /ES … Target = 1038.5 with a 8 point stop.

  • gmak

    FWIW:
    I've been reading that trading liquidity dries up into year end, but market liquidity (fund managers) increases as they chase the market.

    Don't know if this is true or not, or merely speculation based on the current market conditions.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh did you read Mole's “headlines and opinion pieces in the MSM” link in the blog post up top?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news

    In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the Euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

  • Joe8888

    i posted this chart ,over the weekend, O f the VIX,,,where ,imo,,i felt we broke out,,
    but needed to backtest the breakout level, which is around the 20 ma….and should happen today…

    Here is an Update of that Chart….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Per the discussion last night, HIGHLY unlikely. On their own, a leading diagonal or an expanding diagonal are extremely rare. Combined the two and, well, I can't say that there is a valid market example. Therefore, I would hold my cards with one of the higher probability patterns that we know actually exists.

    Skål!

  • ultrabear

    Well, at least cable is being good:

    Daily – we are approaching that lower trendline that (kinda) held us so far: http://screencast.com/t/DuRB3PJn
    Hourly – channel has widened to kinda +50% (anyone got any comments on the validity of this? mole? berk? alpha? bergs?), but we are still heading in the right direction: http://screencast.com/t/9gINggMrtp8

  • springheel_jack

    Gap & crap definitely on the cards. We'll see.

    This looks like a very likely gap to close quickly. Might be the best trade of the week.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I can see that too. And if P3 has started, that should be the way we go. I am just cautious of any overlap that we might get from the open. As if we overlap now, even my most conservative targets are sitting above 1120. There is a reason I was treading lightly.

    Skål!

  • Carl V

    I know, you might be right. Anyway now with ES we are only slightly below the upper line so we will know shortly if this upper diagonal line holds or not.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Per your chart, it seems reasonably valid. How many times have you noticed it hold true in the past. (i.e. I can show you ONE example of anything, but that doesn't mean it is real). If that happens consistently, not even above 50% of the time, but just consistently, you should be able to use it. As a child of science though, I need more empirical evidence before I can draw a valid conclusion.

    Skål!

  • ultrabear

    Yeah haven't got anything to hand – time will tell I guess. The retrace was bang on the 76.4% again tho and we have dropped like a stone since…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I can get creative with my counting, and give us a last resort level in the $SPX of 1057.83 and 1053.25 on /ES. Again this is creative counting, and while creativity counts a lot for some things, it is usually counter-productive to following a strict set of rules. Per usual, I hope independent thought wins out…

    Skål!

  • springheel_jack

    No use being cannon fodder for the bears.

    That rising wedge is picture perfect so far though, even to the retracement. The odds still favor the bears as yet.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    All take all the evidence and scenarios that I can, just extremely cautious. (Which often is a sign of a major move, since I am rarely cautious, let alone extremely cautious).

    Skål!

  • http://tradingtrophies.blogspot.com/ the99th

    Dude, I shorted gold within a dollar of the all-time high. Do I get a stuffed animal or something?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    patting myZelf on the back

    ” DavidDT [Moderator] Today 12:46 AM
    could be close
    http://screencast.com/t/iD2RI8wR
    it is 3AM in LA – do u ever sleep???

    Gooood Moooonin BearMerica!!!

  • ultrabear

    Coconut for the gentleman.

  • goldpackers

    1058 is my do or die point on the spx. Should back off today after the open but take out today's high tomorrow or Thursday and that has to be it or else……………..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    out of cucumbers?

  • ultrabear

    LOL – yeah really have to change suppliers…

  • Nightwind

    Hey Jack, what were your thoughts on holding BGZ as a long term bear play vs the other 3x inverses?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    we just got one LONG RED Candle on EUR/USD please a sign of stronger dollar for us bears! :)

  • springheel_jack

    Big move coming one way or the other.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… Should have made enough dough in that trade to go buy one of the jumbo ones that they have at the fair. 😛

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks mate… That much I can see. Cash indexes cannot overlap. In futures it is reasonable more acceptable (definitely acceptable in AH, and modestly acceptable in OH), but this is cutting it awfully close for my liking. Especially coupled with the buy signal the $VIX will be flashing today (it either gives confirmation today, or not). No confirmation would likely mean we had a reasonable down day, which would be preferable. Not holding my breath though.

    Skål!

  • Carl V

    Good morning Anna; yes and it came after EUR touched its extended upper Keltner band; if only it could cross the 3rd fan line….
    http://screencast.com/t/bsU2l3IXQHA

  • shortcover

    back from out of town…looks like market is right back to where i left it…amazing.

  • innatedc

    Anna what the heck is with MOS…fill me in. Strange to miss and yet be up.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup, daily trend on /DX is higher highs and higher lows. We really need it to catch a bid, and everything will be kosher. If not, dare I say… “Bears are fucked.”

    Skål!

  • skynard

    Thanks for enabling real time again.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Unfortunately, intra-day, /DX appears to be in a 4th wave triangle, needing to break a little lower. Hope that ain't really that case, as that would likely be enough to decimate any reasonable bearish count.

    SKål!

  • dollar

    Good stuff on the “replace the dollar” story going around:
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/06/7583

  • chumprop

    Anyone jumping in short here at the open or is that suicide?

  • innatedc

    I see conference call coming at 9am est.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not here or at the open. We should get one last little pump, IMO, according to futures action, but then we hit a reasonable confluence of resistance levels which should spur, at minimum, a decent drop.

    Skål!

  • ckeltner

    Mission Accomplished!

    401(k) investors hurt in 2008, but doing better now
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/401k-investors-hu

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Markets are fickle creatures. It only wanted to rob you of your theta.

    Skål!

  • chumprop

    I am seeing the 61.8% of this whole move lower at 1052 and the resistance of the descending channel starting at 9/23 at ~1052 on the /ES … Is this the resistance that you speak of?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nope, but I'll add them to the confluence. I have 2 nice pivots right around 1055 /ES. Higher than I want to see, but I can only swing the market so far each day. 😛

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    and $$$$$$$$ berk LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea I was right about them missing, but the Fast money idiots talked it up AH…GRRRRRRRRRRR

    I will be watching the conference call action :) Under desk, kneeling praying :)

  • shortcover

    Agreed! I may have pulled a fast one tho- i closed out my short-term trades (SDS/QID) on Thurs and wrote calls against the rest of my short etfs…so i think the theta burn went straight to the wallet…

    Prob will put both back on today or leg into SDS today. I feel a bull trap coming on!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    First step would be above 1046, which could create a nice H/S top AH. Just saying I will take what I can get to lighten up a bit. I have always been better at jumping into, than jumping away from the bus.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    $$DXY just took another dump GGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nicely done. Then you should be fairly happy with the market's fickle action.

    Well done mate.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    At least the market isn't screaming higher on this action. I will take all the help I can get right here.

    Hold the line boys, hold the line.

    Skål!

  • chumprop

    Yeah, I was eying that too. I think if we open below 1047 we have at least some chance at the gap fill… maybe just wishful thinking.

  • dollar

    It is important to note that the author of the Independent article saying there was a group of central banks plotting to replace the dollar for oil trades has a term named after him, “fisking” and a not so flattering entry in Wikipedia: The term fisking, or to fisk, is blogosphere slang describing a point-by-point criticism that highlights perceived errors, or disputes the analysis in a statement, article, or essay.[1] Eric S. Raymond, in the Jargon File, defined the term as:

    A point-by-point refutation of a blog entry or (especially) news story. A really stylish fisking is witty, logical, sarcastic and ruthlessly factual; flaming or handwaving is considered poor form. Named after Robert Fisk, a British journalist who was a frequent (and deserving) early target of such treatment.[2]

    The British newspaper The Observer defined fisking as “…the practice of savaging an argument and scattering the tattered remnants to the four corners of the internet (named after Robert Fisk of the Independent, whose columns are considered soft targets)”[3]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisking

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, I pretty much concur. Opening at AH highs would by mucho bad-o. Opening under the R1 pivot though, would at least give me a well managed entry.

    Skå!!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just dumped…and broke support now on to the 75.94 :(
    We''re screwed

    They want to replace the $DXY as the reserve currency !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • ultrabear

    Yep, this guy is a total douche – one to file in magazine cover indicators

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    At some point if the $DXY fall in a disorderly way (I think we have) then the other countries will seriously think about dumping some of our debt they own…and that would tank the markets!
    The Bond market is smarter than the equity market IMHO. :)

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    conditions are favorable for shorts, but not full positions:

    1/2 faz
    1/2 swgwv
    1/2 fysxq

    These positions may incur drawdown both today and possibly tomorrow, but that's why half positions are used for now. Having a ton of cash on hand gives us the flexibility to do a whole bunch of things to enhance our positions in the coming days.

  • http://tradingtrophies.blogspot.com/ the99th

    What do you know, now I'm massively long gold.

  • ultrabear

    What is that in EUR?? I can see us making it possibly just above 1.48

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Baby… THAT IS HUGE for the /DX. Apparently no one else here can see that. Why do they want to dump it? Because it HAS BEEN doing horrible (was that past tense?). Just like upgrades, these decisions come at the WORST time. Judging be the competency of our central bank, large financial institutions, and the central banks and large financial institutions of other nations, I think this should be perceived as bullish for the /DX. That's how I am taking it. ESPECIALLY if it doesn't put in a lower daily low. That would seal the deal for me.

    Hang in there…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I mentioned on the blog when Mole was away that GOLD was going to go to new highs and I don't think that was a popular post LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    god I am trying with my fingernails at this point :)

  • ultrabear

    Good luck to you, sir.

  • thelefteyeguy

    to the moon for gold…holy smolly..

  • springheel_jack

    I haven't done the analysis I was planning to as I've been busy, but here's the gist.

    My biggest regret from the end of the rally was that I called the bottom well and played it long mainly with the BGU, the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3x. I bought in at an average of about $14.50 & sold a couple of weeks later at an average of $20 when the SPX was not yet back to 750. Nice score.

    So far so good, but I was depressed to see this go as high as $56 recently, and very aware that the large payday I took on this trade was massively dwarfed by the money I left on the table.

    I was using leveraged short ETFs increasingly over 2008 & was trading in and out a lot over the Sept '08 to March '09 period.

    I noticed particularly that the leveraged short commodity ETFS were poisonous, that the sector ETFs all had high burn rates, led by the leveraged short financial ETFs which have collapsed so badly since March.

    However I also noticed that the burn rate seemed much lower in the leveraged Direxion ETFs, and that the larger cap 3x ones were particularly good at holding their value. BGU troughed in March at $13.92, and has traded as high as $56. BGZ peaked in March at about $115, and recently traded as low as $20. The rise and drop over this period is better than that I have seen for equivalent ETFs & I would happily go with BGZ as my top pick for a long term short ETF.

  • Carl V

    This makes a lot of sense to me; do you think that this will translate into major announcement on the medias today? Followed by wild move first down then up for the dollar?

  • gmak

    I just watched the EUR ramp, then fall off. Games are afoot on this non-news day. Don't read too much into DXY action. I think that it will strengthen into the latter half of the week as the liquidity finds its home and stops sloshing about. IMVHO.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Wow what a roller coaster on EUR/USD sheesh now the down begins whoa

  • chumprop

    Good luck!!! I usually try to play the gaps in the mornings with very good success in the past couple of months. I have been getting screwed here lately in the last 2 weeks though. Hopefully we can mark today as a win.

  • thelefteyeguy

    snort

    @.@~

  • Carl V

    Anna, what do you think of equities (ES pre-market and FTSE), not following gold so far: it is just like an horizontal line for 4 hours now? Do you think this is consolidation before jumping higher or divergence before falling? No wishful thinking please :-)
    Personally I can't say at this stage, no clue , no feeling.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don't want to speculate on whether it will hit the media, but I am sure at some point it will (whether during trading hours or not is beyond me). And I would say that the /DX certainly had a little bid of a down move there (76.615-76.42) in a matter of a few minutes. Back above S2 (/6E back below R2) and momentum appears to be building. New high on the day for /DX would seal the deal to short the open. Don't know that we can get it in the next 10 minutes, but if we continue at the same rate, we sure as hell will.

    Quite astute there Carl.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm with you there… Would be nice.

    Skål!

  • Nightwind

    Jack, thanks for the insight and research. I was looking at TZA b4 until I saw your comment. I would think that the small caps would be killed during credit tightening and many of the large caps would be considered to “big to fail” and saved by the Fed. But the burn rate is more important to me.

  • gmak

    Just want to add that the move in EUR was NOT reflected in ES. Someone needed to buy a lot of EUR, or was just playing games because it is being sold big right now.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Carl, I have been watching the price action all morning (got up early) and for the moves GLD/USD has made the /ES has not been in lock step, now this is a good sign for us, but like you mentioned we can't go on hopes, but price action.
    I am watching to see if we gap and dump quite quickly, it is NOT good for the dollar to keep tanking for the markets in this fashion…should be an interesting morning G/L

  • Nightwind

    Berk, does the down move (DX) look impulsive? I'm not a EW guy….but it sure looks that way to me coming out of a 6 day dbl top?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just mentioned that below GMak that is our last ace may be we gap up then fill quickly 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    G/L to all today, and lets push this bitach over LOL

  • springheel_jack

    On these ETFs the burn rate can be truly awe-inspiring. Check out the action in the leveraged short oil ETFs while oil was falling from $145 to $35. Chilling stuff. I'm just trading these two nowadays if I'm holding more than a couple of days.

  • Carl V

    Now the EUR down move seems serious, does a lot of damage: in hourly bar, i just erased the lowest low from 9 bars!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I can count the action from Friday's highs to today's lows as a Zig-zag down, and judging by current /DX action, I could say a wave 3 might be in store (especially if we can get back above S1). Of course, I am not an FX guy… So who knows. Taking it slowly here.

    Skål!

  • peder1001

    spy been falling since 2pm pre-market. now at 104.81

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    daily ranges http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/10/rang… “check ads!”

  • chumprop

    Here here!!!!

  • ultrabear

    GS making new highs over $188 – here we go folks

  • chumprop

    I will short /ES here at 9:36am… stop = 8.5 points

  • Carl V

    I would love to see EUR making a new high now, just slightly higher you know, because no divergence in any indicator so far……but see equities oping higher, perhaps we will have it, then everything stops…and reverse ???

  • Joe8888

    Wow, this chart , i post yesterday ,,,,on 10 min SPY,,,pLAYED OUT,, HIT UPPER CHANNEL ,,,,

  • dollar

    dollar now unched vs the eur?

  • shortcover

    in QID.

  • BaldEagle

    How many more times can they get away with this shit?

  • springheel_jack

    A gap fill very quickly would be nice at this point.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Until someone finally makes a stand. And don't look to lazy fat-ass U.S. citizens to do it….

    Skål!

  • peder1001

    alcoa earnings tomorrow. should set the sentiment for expectations for rest of earnings season.

  • ultrabear

    *cough* last time right now?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    those with MOS put spreads, this will come in so I am waiting to see how far (sorry)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    touch'e Berk :)

  • Douala

    Thanks David…will obey and click the ads.

  • Hanuman

    Today's index actions have put the Sept 23rd Primary 2 topping theory to the trash bin. We will see new highs in all the indexes within next week. I am looking for 1105 in SPX.

    Sold my SPXU and TWM longs (from Friday) for big losses. Not going long now. Will wait for a few days to take new short positions.

    GL.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    sold Silver, Sold Spy Sitting in cash….

  • chumprop

    Agreed!

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    If this rallies……I wonder if we're even going to get a retrace………could go up as fast as it did in August !!!

  • BaldEagle

    We are still in a downtrend my friend..Take out 1063 first..

  • anthem

    shorting a good position here at 1048. Stop at 1051. I think there has to be some sort of gap fill and it may come quickly in the next 30-45min

  • wex

    Please understand that there are a number of our rivals who wish the US hegemony to evaporate. One of the benefits of US dominance is the reserve currency status. To help undermine the US and improve their own power status these rivals try to eliminate our advantages. As long as our society has truly free elections, honest judiciary and free markets, our currency will not be replaced. Is there a major country in the world where you would rather trust in a more level playing field? It doesn't exist.
    Each country plays to its own advantage and expects the US to accommodate them. China has closed markets, dishonest courts and corrupt government. They adhere to a mercantilist philosophy and benefit as long as the US consents. At some point this will change.

  • chumprop

    The volume in the first 5 mins was pretty low for this to be a continuation gap. I am in your camp with a gap fill.

  • ultrabear

    As long as our society has truly free elections, honest judiciary and free markets…

    *splutter*

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    My thoughts exactly. Since when have we had those?!?!

    Skål!

  • shortcover

    in SDS…starter position…

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    'China has closed markets, dishonest courts and corrupt government'……….You forget that Bush has only just left office……..

  • Joe8888

    OK,,,Give Daddy a 10 am reversal..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    $SPX and /NQ almost at R2 levels. That would be a good supplement. R2 on /ES as stated is closer to 1053.

    Skål!

  • wex

    no apologies necessary. I didn't see you pound the table telling people they had to put on the trade.

  • wex

    No apologies necessary as I didn't see you pound the table insisting that people put on the trade.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alrighty then, I just sold my SPY Oct 105s. That was a useful little hedge. Thank you for the suggestion.

    By the way, do you have any OTM Nov calls to hedge against a new high?

  • BaldEagle

    First, do you think we actually have a democracy anymore? Or is it fascism? Do you think it is okay for us to stir up shit in other countries to keep our oil interests open and have the advantages we do? Like borrowing trillions of dollars and being able to screw our lenders by devaluing the currency? And there is no accountability because no one cares? If I were another country I'd be pretty pissed at what the gov't here is able to get away with. Sorry for the rant.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    heard you the first time Wex !!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    30 min bollinger band doesnt mean much… just saying

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    This market doesn't seem to want to fill that gap….

  • innatedc

    Is this thing gonna run away from us yet again!!

  • Scrillhog

    Still holding longs from Friday… Long term I'm bearish like you guys but right now I actually hope we get to new highs soon.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I'm going back to bed with my teddy bear. This fucker looks like we are going to make new highs yet again. See you next month ….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • chumprop

    Sometimes it can take all day… especially for the larger the % gap.

  • mattco

    Does anyone know if there is an ETF that shorts our country as a whole? If so, are there options? I would think that this is a better bet than going long Goldman @60. lol (actually, not funny at all)

  • springheel_jack

    As I pointed out this morning, having come so close of the lower channel of the bear wedge at 1062, we may be going to kiss it goodbye before resolving downwards. This throwback happens on two thirds of these rising wedges and on the balance of probability that is exactly what we are doing here.

    That throwback changes the expected target on the bear wedge to 975 rather than 875, and the damage being done to the bear EW counts at the moment means that new highs are now more than likely, but regardless of that this, the bear wedge still has an 80%+ probability of playing out.

    Until we close back in the wedge this is still a shorting opportunity IMO.

    we are also leaving a gap below that, if it is not filled later today, will more than likely get filled tomorrow.

    The end is not nigh (yet)!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… /DX back below S2, /6E back above R2, /NQ above R2, $SPX @ R2… Not looking pretty.

    Skål!

  • Scrillhog

    Lowest TICK so far for the day -125. About to hit upper VWAP band perhaps we get a little reversal but I wouldn't hope for much here.

  • Road_Kill

    Hello all, figure I would join you guys today as we witness this amazing display of bulltardedness in action. Is there anything driving this move? I don't see anything out of the ordinary in currencies or news.

  • rhae

    SPY 60m There are a number of ways to calculate target projections… I find the math calc interesting… 105.47
    http://screencast.com/t/UJSTRAi4

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Dow appears to already be in the rising wedge area……

  • innatedc

    I am truly at a loss for words….absolutely unprecedented times in these markets…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi road, I am still in toliet puking :-)

  • springheel_jack

    The closing price is the important one.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Ciao Bear friend :)

  • Road_Kill

    Hey anna, just dont let it get in your hair. By the way move over I think I need to puke too.

  • springheel_jack

    Your EURUSD did ok. WTF happened with MOS?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    OK thanks…..good to know.

  • Joe8888
  • BaldEagle

    Medic!

  • vardoger

    I think the gap from last Thursday just closed.

  • Bart7

    wouldn't it be fitting if the dollar bottom coincided with that news about the “demise of the dollar”?

  • Road_Kill

    The past couple weeks, every time I try to play a gap fill the market pulls this BS action on me. Doesnt matter which direction long or short. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Good eye mate… Now if I just had ANY working count going lower, I would be good.

    Skål!

  • Road_Kill

    Are you kidding me NQ is over 1700 in one fricken move?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Went short, $tick way too bullish. Shorted Spy.

  • vardoger

    We are now above the mid-boll on the daily

  • vision_invisible

    Folks. I'm not shorting anything. This market is going to lift all boats. Time to write April and further naked options on garbage stocks.

    Algorithm
    1) Find any consumer oriented, high debt, medium short interest (6-10%), POS.
    2) Find 2007 peak price
    3) Write call option at 2007 peak price

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It was under performing yesterday… When we didn't drop at the open, over-performance today is to be expected.

    Skål!

  • Scrillhog

    I don't follow… With TICK bullish why would that make you go short?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It will… The news is extraordinarily bullish. Though nobody here can seem to grasp that. It's bullish for the dollar folks, get over yourselves.

    Skål!

  • Joe8888

    UUP Head N Shoulders..Top…?

  • Bart7

    from a contrarian perspective, makes sense, you need something like that to mark a bottom. Be nice to see a magazine cover with the dollar demise story..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went short /NQ avg 1702

  • Road_Kill

    I guess the bright side of this action is if you like to short we have that gap down there that now needs to be filled someday.

  • springheel_jack

    Great, I'm not the only one still short!

  • TheCrowe

    Are your bearish counts from this weekend wrecked? (they sure looked good) :)

  • Road_Kill

    no the only one.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    No I am but not feeling the love Jack…the dollar needs to find some support here or we go higher.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, again. That would totally seal the deal.

    Skål!

  • springheel_jack

    Don't say someday. Today, or if not then tomorrow.

  • ultrabear

    Ooooooooh we are just below the 76.4% retrace – if we are going to dump, it has to be veeeery close

  • BaldEagle

    Me too…got any scotch?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ROFL hahahah 😉

  • Nightwind

    Spx – possible IHS setting up with a 1070 or diagonal neckline with a possible targets of 1000-1120. It could pullback into the 1040 area and still be bullish.

  • Road_Kill

    In a normal world I would agree with that statement.

  • Carl V

    IMO, not a valid H&S because doesn't come after a long run up; but even if it is, it's a minor one which target (as you rightly indicate on the chart) is just below last lows. will see; if it is confirmed then yes I agree with you than we will probably have a major double bottom.

  • TheCrowe

    Same thing happenned to me yesterday. I expected a fill back to Friday's close, no dice.

  • bananaben

    Poor bears – you don't listen. My printing press will not allow the market to decline. Don't you get it! We're in a new Bull Market. Get it through your thick skulls! Here's a suggestion: BUY SPG, C, WFC, BAC,AIG,FNM,FRE. Enjoy – I've got your back!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Hate to say it, but yes. If I get creative, I might be able to muster an extremely sloppy 1-2, I-II. But I wouldn't put any water in it…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Surprise of all surprises (the crooked) CEO talked up the stock this morning (surprise huh) by saying that more corn needed fertalizer, but he failed to mentioned there are floods ruining corn crops in the midwest

  • springheel_jack

    I think this reverses today & may have just peaked already after five waves & eight points up.

    Let's hope the correction is deeper than the advance.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Unsustainably Bullish and a quick look over at the Eur/$ shows me it's in a downtrend currently. Should be a nice scalp.

  • BaldEagle

    Hi Ben, can't wait to see you hung!

  • ultrabear

    That's the spirit lol – just sold my long and now am sat short

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I hope you are right, but them saying 1500$ Gold by 2011 leads me to believe that the dollar is going to collaspe. :(

  • springheel_jack

    I'm hoping we won't be needing a stiff drink soon. Celebration sounds good though.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Your dollar will find support. This time the Evil Cabal is on your side (CB's)

  • mattco

    Look at the major indexes: Dow 9700, Nasdaq 2100, S&P 1055 and Russell 600. A little strange. All sitting at even levels, except the S&P, but 3 out of 4 isn't bad. What does this mean? I have no idea. But since trying to count this shit doesn't work I am now looking at other ways to trade this market.

  • Woolly Llama

    You gonna lend us all some margin for this strategy?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Well my call of apple to 202 (BEFORE CRUMMY CRAMER) looks to be in the cards. :(

  • ultrabear

    AUDUSD is right at my confluence-of-trendlines uncle point. This is the witching hour…

  • dollar

    added to TZA

  • bshah

    just fyi… PCLN, GS and AAPL all 3 made 52 week high today…GOD ALMIGHTY…. with highest unemployment and weakest economy, what a show…

  • Nightwind

    Does anyone have a chart on the dollar that goes back to the 1970's. Curious to its value on Dec of 1974. My charts don't go back that far. Thanks

  • fuw

    I also reshorted, so you are definitely not alone.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    They are having a tough time getting in the fields… but these are MONSTER crops Anna. Probably record for Beans and maybe for Corn.

  • harveydent

    anyone have insight on RIMM? its so sporadic this morning. Been long some calls since 66 few days back.

  • innatedc

    Yeah but whats that got to do with the fact they missed earnings HUGE!!

  • mattco

    12/27/74- DXY 97.630

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “still”?
    I am just trading around, not taking sides
    all in all out, cash feels good 70% of the time – this market is as insane as back in 1999

  • Nightwind

    Thanks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    there might be one more push to set higher high on hourly major indexes

  • Trader_Steve

    If you had enough brains to be TELLING others what to do you would have enough money to never need to trade again.

    We are in the mess we are with a $65 trillion+ debt as the taxpayer has created this bubble with the confiscation of the taxpayer's future. And as we have not a shortage of assholes, say hello to the rest for us. LOL

    Steve

  • Road_Kill

    I guess we are going to consolidate here for another 20 point move in the next 5 min.

  • TheCrowe

    What would happen if a small interim rate hike was announced to strengthen the dollar? The chances of this must be awfulllll low, but just imagine the frenzy considering all the folks having a field day with the _dollar_ carry trade.

  • mattco

    If GS & JPM are huge net shorts of Gold and Silver, shouldn't the rise in the PM's be killing them?

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    nothing…. not meant to be a rude post at all… i just am looking at shorting beans. sorry. didn't mean anything by it. Central Europe is really upping their land for ag use too. great soil over there.

  • vardoger

    ….collapse in late 2010, 2011 for sure

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    IF, then yes.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Var, agreed, what the heck will the US do then??? We look like a bunch of bumpkins!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    they can afford it

  • innatedc

    Didn't take your post as rude…just can't figure out how a company's share price goes parabolic after such poor numbers…..seemed to work for RIMM. Buyers are now making decisions on what a CEO says more than actual numbers…..frustrating…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    and our dollar is SH-T :(((

  • vardoger

    A:D 7:1

    I guess I'm tracking for a long on any pullback to around /es 1046. I won't be surprised if we paint a bull flag here

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    this is just BS on MOS, I can't believe this one

  • Woolly Llama

    Did anyone mention the raise in australian rates and its affect on the dollar today?

  • innatedc

    I know…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Out of all long RIMM looking to do a short spread soon. :)

  • TheCrowe

    Harv, Anna bailed on her bull call spread yesterday near the highs. As you probably know, she's $money$, so you might bail out too. best of luck!

  • vardoger

    Suffer, and EXPORT!

    If things get really bad we could always annex Canada and Mexico, Americano currency baby! lol

  • Road_Kill

    Oh yeah MOS is a fun one, can rip you good if you are not carefull

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    this I didn't hear thanks Dire!

  • anthem

    yeah, looks like it. This small 2 pt consolidationg doesn't look good. . .

  • ultrabear

    Yes. I have been tracking this one closely. Have a look further down.

  • peder1001

    hi anna :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I know Inna, this is a first for me…I am watching to dump on a good dip which will come.

  • innatedc

    me too..

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    when are the freaking US peeps going to WAKE UP and see that our currency is devauling at such a fast rate, and their 401Ks are really 201 K s or less?????

  • vision_invisible

    Haha. It can be a part of everyone's strategy, even 5 contracts of profit goes a long way. If you don't short more options than underlying you would hold you can protect your risk.

    Finally, trying to predict when the market is going to turn with SPY options is risky – you gotta get the price right and the timing.

    When you write options you are in control. For example, MAR – Marriot. Its fwd 2010 PE is 36.4. It is $27.3 today, S&P target is $13, Argus target is $32 (bullshit). Fine. Massive uncertainty. I am willing to write a $35 call for $1 in April. If the stock is called away, I short the stock effectively at a cost of $34 ($35called-$1profit). I'll just hold the short position until the stock falls under $35.

    Don't do this with illiquid stocks.

  • pricey

    I am long the dollar so hold on tight!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    me too, but it could hit 75.90 area first. (ouch) :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They would be 200.5Ks. And no, see lazy fat-ass U.S. citizen comment below. When was the last time you saw someone get outraged (besides about american idol)??

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They would be 200.5Ks. And no, see lazy fat-ass U.S. citizen comment below. When was the last time you saw someone get outraged (besides about american idol)??

    Skål!

  • harveydent

    well the lower the USD. higher equities right? :)
    i know not the truth historically…

  • Nightwind

    Hey Anna, my mattress bank is going DOWN

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yea, the fluff is out :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you know my standard explanation why Joe Schmoes are not capable of understanding what we understand?
    (ref George Carlin as always)
    Plus with FED debasing currency – where else to put money? equities/commodities/stove?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    To a point, what happens when the chinese have had enough of this SH-T (they are stockpiling Gold/metals/commodities…(for a reason )

  • springheel_jack

    The dip's arriving by the look of it Anna.

  • malusDiaz

    JPY or EUR

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am livid that no one gets it they have tunnel vision with the exception of a few… Our economy will finally crash around us. But by then it's too late.

  • buyemsellem2000

    Very long TZA at 12.15.
    Got up late,probably a good thing. What the hell letter were they talking about on CNBC??

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    So true David :)

  • harveydent

    well then yours and many theories (big picture) is right and our economy hits the fan. not everyone can be as wise as you!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Plalezzz I am going to have to clean out the litter box to get this shit out of my head!!!!!!!! ROFL hahaha

  • vision_invisible

    There is mania in the air. Even on this board.

    Suddenly valuations are going to go through the roof because our currency depreciates to DXY 70? Bullshit.

    Where is the rising wages that would allow these companies to charge the SAME or MORE. How will people pay MORE for the same product (in that the devalued currency).

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    the Big Picture is the US has no game plan…the central bankers are clueless as they were in 2007, thanks Ben Burnmybutt. LOL

  • harveydent

    hey check out UNH. picture perfect IHS.

  • AS2009

    Dollar (UUP) bounced from support @ 22.6 …

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, my OTM Oct calls came in handy. Do I have to worry about theta burn when they're ITM?

  • harveydent

    i wonder if i should stop pursuing an education/career in concentration Finance + IBanking.
    Actually serious question…what do you guys think? Failed career for another 5 years until we fix our economy?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good eye

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Harvey you go for it, you could be a real asset to what we need :)

  • TheCrowe

    I've never seen you curse before, Anna. Ladies and gentlemen, we've topped!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not touching carry trades for long term holdings – you never know when it will reverse, and when it will – there will be no time to get out

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ROTFLMBO hahahah I hope your'e right Crowe !!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    may be you are placing too much pressure on your mattress?

  • BaldEagle

    Anything to make stocks go up and reflate the Ponzi scheme, Anna. Cheerleaders like Barron's & CNBC could care less if DXY went to 50 as long as their 401k doubled. It's all just a shell game.

  • colonel_bleep

    Hedge funds are long, hence this morning's rumors of the dollar being replaced as oil pricing mechanism, which is bullish. Just the opposite of last year when they were short and all the rumors were bearish.

  • bshah

    Out of curiosity… What news is driving this fucking bs higher…?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you got to pick either one of those
    stiff
    or
    drink

  • shortcover

    i guess us bears can hope that the final wave is truncated and doesn't crack the old highs…but the frustration factor is about right for it…

  • hank30

    The balloon is deflating…

  • springheel_jack

    Tempting to knock this on the head & go fishing, but I still think that this is a good entry opportunity.

  • Nightwind

    Those damn mason jars are tough on your spine

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    absolutely. at the money calls have the highest theta, i would suggest taking some profits on them pretty soon. I took off about 40% of the oct calls i had on just a minute ago

  • harveydent

    why thank you :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    adding a unit of short ES here. My previous shorts remain (albeit being held up by a diminishing belt buckle)

  • Woolly Llama

    I do not disagree on selling premium by any means, but writing out in April seems too far w/ too much time for things to play out. I like selling spreads in the front month so you have more (quicker) theta on your side although the recent (unprecedented) run up pratically blew up my IC portfolio when I didn't manage my risk appropriately…always the key in this game.

  • dollar

    Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia hasn’t held talks with other oil producers and major consuming nations such as China on moving away from the dollar as the currency used to buy and sell oil, Saudi Central Bank Governor Muhammad al-Jasser said.

    Al-Jasser, speaking to reporters in Istanbul where he’s attending an International Monetary Fund summit, was denying a report in the London-based Independent newspaper, which said today that Gulf oil producers and customers including China and Brazil had held secret talks on phasing out the dollar in oil pricing.

    The Independent report is “absolutely incorrect” and there has been “absolutely nothing” of that nature discussed between Saudi Arabia and other countries, al-Jasser said.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dollar crashing

  • Bart7

    another reason I think it's a good contrary indicator and may mark a bottom in the dollar soon

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am about to call it a day, I am getting to Piffed off. :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    dollar dump

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    who needs news when the FED gives free cash for watering the green sprouts on equity?

  • springheel_jack

    You don't have to choose if you get the order right though. :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yes, at what point does the equity tape realize a devalued dollar is bad for us. ??

  • vardoger

    Retesting the break of the 7-13 to 9-3 trendline on SPX? Very interesting, I just wish there was a count that supported it!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :-)

  • malusDiaz

    Aye, i don't do Forex.

  • ultrabear

    Ok that needs to be it. Right here. Right now. Die you mother…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    GS is not following this huge rally ??? hmmmm

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Jack let's go out on the bay and do some grouper fishing :)

  • springheel_jack

    Was that pi$$ed off Anna? :-)

    This is a very irritating day so far. the trolls are having a party over at SOH.

    Shame to exit shorts here though, we're very close to my 1062 kiss goodbye.

  • vision_invisible

    I shy away from short term – unless it is overwhelming. Right now, things just look overvalued to me, so given a bearish bias on certain sectors I want more time for my thesis to play out. I find 4-6 months means that with the cyclicality of the market I will get a great exit.

    Ultimately, I want to be buying back these positions at 80-90% profit, often at $0.1/contract.

  • springheel_jack

    Now that sounds a lot more fun than this.

    We could use Mike V as bait.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bought some Alcoa Puts.

  • BaldEagle

    Amen

  • vardoger

    Gmak you out there?

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    My guess is that they crash the markets after Oct. OPEX. Too much open interest on the OCT SPY Puts for the markets to go down now.

  • skynard

    Good point. Makes sense to me.

  • peder1001

    yeh, but thats what we all thought in aug and sept opex.

  • Nightwind

    To Berk: The majority of Americans have never experienced a true bear market in their life times and at your age…neither have you. Like I tell my older sons, I can't give them first hand advice on how this will play out, only that to prepare for the worst and then some. This will be a world crash, not just US. If we are lucky, it will be swift and not like the Japanese bloodletting.

  • edgetraderplus

    Re fiat Fed$…not showing any ability to rally off lows. Will go lower to find support.
    30 min intra day ranges relatively wide, not a positive sign for demand…

  • Douala

    If $USD breaks 76 then next target is 74.50.

  • anthem

    pretty big resistance@188. . . also pretty big move by financials yesterday.

    But eventhen, yes I agree with you. a bit surprised. DOn't worry, we'll get a small correction and then GS will ramp up and pull the rest of the market with them. .

  • Hanuman

    Nightwind,

    What's your timeframe for this crash? This insane rally has burnt me very bad so far.

    Thanks.

  • edgetraderplus

    1051 area, now a little higher, can be important reistance, intra day, if price starts to
    break soon. If not, price will continue to absorb selling and work higher, putting the
    daily trend in a firmer position.

  • losershot
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Oh, and I am not claiming that I have. I can't even remember the Tech Bubble except when I look at a 10 year chart of the $NDX.

    I am just saying… Where are the protests. Where is the angst. Even from the younger generation (as I am) where? where? where?

    I mean, now we are content to sit in our suburban homes and bitch about the hardships that we “feel” are being thrown at us. Fully forgetting, or never even knowing, what a hardship truly is.

    And for the record, my grandparents are in their 90's and both remember the Great Depression quite well. I listen to my elders…

    Skål!

  • Meshugga

    So were sitting on 1057 which is a key number for me. Sold my SPY calls here. Tempted to fade this but the f-n govt and pomo bullshit makes it tricky.
    XLF seems to be hitting a wall of resistance at $15.01-$15.06, going to short it instead.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I have the DX (360 min bar or 1/4 day) on a TD Buy Setup Bar 9. This will complete (should unless we really fall out of bed from here) over a TDST support level on the same chart of 76.13. This bar ends at noon (obviously).

  • vardoger

    We are right at the 20-month MA

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    I feel like a lab rat, and the negative reinforcement is brainwashing me to never go short again…too much pain. Normally this is a sign that a top is near, but I am burnt out.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Does anyone have an EW count that would still support a fall……I belive the count that took the retrace from thursday's close as a 4th is now invalid (breach of 1) and so the only bearish count is that we did a 1-2 1-2……currently 2……

    The bullish count is that we're now in an ABC going up (A now)…..any thoughts anyone ?

  • malusDiaz

    Bought .UUPKW

  • mattco

    Just read that the US Treasury is going to auction $10 billion in 16 day bills. Is that normal? Who the fuck buys 2 week treasuries? I have never heard of that before.

  • edgetraderplus

    Broad strokes, but on point for no one knows when it will hit, just that it will,
    but I suspect not swift at all…at all. Imaginary currencies are killing the real world.

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    Ya, Grouper are too cool to eat.
    If you're a diver, Grouper are the one of the best fish to see on the reef!
    Ever goto John Pennekamp Park in the Keys?

  • vardoger

    Shit, the “real” world is doing better every day our economies contract. Think about it

  • vardoger

    Anyone have a moment to consider that we are re-testing the break of the bearish wedge we have been since July 13? It's not all that uncommon to retest a pattern like that, right?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Breakout to the upside coming?

    http://screencast.com/t/KIsOFO0vVfi1

  • trader69

    some days I wonder why I do not listen to the old saying…if the market is in an uptrend, you buy the dips….no questions asked—until it stops working. My only consolation is that I short the rips, but the profits only last 3-4 days tops. you can say burnt out. I can't wait for the top to be in. the similarities b/w end of june, end of Aug and now are uncanny, its not funny anymore.

  • standard_and_poor

    Closed 3% position in shorts from 1044 at close to break even.
    Next stop is 1070 for remaining 2% of shorts from 1070 spx.

  • Nightwind

    You're actually dead on, but my older sons (about your age) look at me like I'm fucking crazy. In their defense, they don't have your economic education or foresight. This episode in our history will change America forever in my opinion and hopefully for the better.

  • TheCrowe

    just heard that the dollar is moving to the pink sheets… uup.pk

  • anthem

    Some serious ramping going on. After the initial bell, there have been two very large spikes in volume, one around 10:40, the other around 5 minutes ago. Both spikes were about twice the volume. ..

  • Nightwind

    Timeframe: only God knows. Being burnt, that makes two of us. Probally the safest bet on the short side is breaking of the arithmetic lower trendline of the spx and wait for retest

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You can't give me credit for “economic education.” All that amounts to with me was one semester of economics in High school being taught by our Baseball coach. Granted, I did get extra credit for laughing at his jokes…

    But, thanks…

    Skål!

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Almost a 20 point move up in the SPX with little retrace……

  • PeterK80

    ERX is taking off… crazy. No signs of slowing.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm calling a breakout. I picked up some SPY Nov 107 calls a few minutes ago to deal with this.

  • shortcover

    nabbing TZA…

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    I think you are right Vardoger, but with the trend in the dollar, how can we be sure?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Anthem, what feed do you have that shows that data…..the one I have has sketchy volume data….

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  • BaldEagle

    Because no government wants to hold longer than 2 weeks..Can't say as I blame them.

  • malusDiaz

    For fucks sake, let this be a bull fake out, i'm fucking tired of lossing money, and having my profits turn to losses,

    Fck1

  • Nightwind

    Tell you a funny story. I was working during the '87 crash and didn't know it happened until I got to trading stocks in 1994. Like most folks, I lived my life in a bubble.

  • malusDiaz

    Yeah, atm we could have broken out of the down channel with a slight overthrow

  • Turps

    Let me know if this is a long way off base but the U.S. is still the largest consumer of oil. Why would the U.S. do anything other than pay $U.S. for oil. wouldn't this just force everyone else to sell in $U.S.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    I'm with you Malus – and I think we are all worn out. This is not fun anymore – but as traders we owe it to ourselves to keep our composure. Go out there – take a walk around your neighborhood and work off the stress – then come back.

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    Be careful you might get whipsawed on both sides of your trade.

  • AS2009

    Dollar (UUP) breakdown warning – we are hitting against 22.60 multiple times here ..

  • malusDiaz

    they are angry, and they are doing things, look at You Tube,

    The second revolution won't be broadcast on T.V.

  • malusDiaz

    Lol, that's 2000 for me =)

  • vardoger

    Looks as though TNX wants to retest the major 38. 2% @ 32.9

  • malusDiaz

    thanks mate, i'm doing that right now,

    Still holden, but fuck me does this take the stainless steel rat mentality,

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have a conditional order to sell my SPY Nov 107 calls should SPX drop below my channel midpoints.

    http://screencast.com/t/KIsOFO0vVfi1

  • Scrillhog

    Is your SN taken from a band's album?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Actually, it's taken from a photo book.

  • Lordted

    I don't use chanels in that way but interesting chart.

  • malusDiaz

    much better now!

  • hank30

    I'm glued to my seat watching spx 1061. If we break, It'll take some shorts off the table. Some indicators signal a different pattern going on than the fractal suggested by Mole. MACD signal has not crossover on the daily chart, despite a 41 points move. We may start heading down to 1042.

  • orth1557

    The 60 minute trend lines on the $spx and spy, nor have the dailies been broken. keeping it simple for now with my short covers based on this principle. However I made sure that I did not set them until after the volataile first 1hr. Things for the bears have shown continual improvement sense the first hour. The triq and trin show overbought.

  • orth1557

    I agree.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    went short /NQ avg 1702

  • Road_Kill

    I guess the bright side of this action is if you like to short we have that gap down there that now needs to be filled someday.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Great, I'm not the only one still short!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No I am but not feeling the love Jack…the dollar needs to find some support here or we go higher.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Don't say someday. Today, or if not then tomorrow.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ooooooooh we are just below the 76.4% retrace – if we are going to dump, it has to be veeeery close

  • DesertEagle

    Me too…got any scotch?

  • Nightwind

    Spx – possible IHS setting up with a 1070 or diagonal neckline with a possible targets of 1000-1120. It could pullback into the 1040 area and still be bullish.

  • Road_Kill

    In a normal world I would agree with that statement.

  • bananaben

    Poor bears – you don't listen. My printing press will not allow the market to decline. Don't you get it! We're in a new Bull Market. Get it through your thick skulls! Here's a suggestion: BUY SPG, C, WFC, BAC,AIG,FNM,FRE. Enjoy – I've got your back!

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I think this reverses today & may have just peaked already after five waves & eight points up.

    Let's hope the correction is deeper than the advance.

  • DesertEagle
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I hope you are right, but them saying 1500$ Gold by 2011 leads me to believe that the dollar is going to collaspe. :(

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I'm hoping we won't be needing a stiff drink soon. Celebration sounds good though.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Your dollar will find support. This time the Evil Cabal is on your side (CB's)

  • mattco

    Look at the major indexes: Dow 9700, Nasdaq 2100, S&P 1055 and Russell 600. A little strange. All sitting at even levels, except the S&P, but 3 out of 4 isn't bad. What does this mean? I have no idea. But since trying to count this shit doesn't work I am now looking at other ways to trade this market.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Well my call of apple to 202 (BEFORE CRUMMY CRAMER) looks to be in the cards. :(

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    AUDUSD is right at my confluence-of-trendlines uncle point. This is the witching hour…

  • dollar

    added to TZA

  • bshah

    just fyi… PCLN, GS and AAPL all 3 made 52 week high today…GOD ALMIGHTY…. with highest unemployment and weakest economy, what a show…

  • Nightwind

    Does anyone have a chart on the dollar that goes back to the 1970's. Curious to its value on Dec of 1974. My charts don't go back that far. Thanks

  • fuw

    I also reshorted, so you are definitely not alone.

  • harveydent

    anyone have insight on RIMM? its so sporadic this morning. Been in some calls since 66 few days back.

  • mattco

    12/27/74- DXY 97.630

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “still”?
    I am just trading around, not taking sides
    all in all out, cash feels good 70% of the time – this market is as insane as back in 1999

  • Nightwind

    Thanks

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    there might be one more push to set higher high on hourly major indexes

  • Trader_Steve

    If you had enough brains to be TELLING others what to do you would have enough money to never need to trade again.

    We are in the mess we are with a $65 trillion+ debt as the taxpayer has created this bubble with the confiscation of the taxpayer's future. And as we have not a shortage of assholes, say hello to the rest for us. LOL

    Steve

  • Road_Kill

    I guess we are going to consolidate here for another 20 point move in the next 5 min.

  • TheCrowe

    What would happen if a small interim rate hike was announced to strengthen the dollar? The chances of this must be awfulllll low, but just imagine the frenzy considering all the folks having a field day with the _dollar_ carry trade.

  • mattco

    If GS & JPM are huge net shorts of Gold and Silver, shouldn't the rise in the PM's be killing them?

  • Vardoger

    ….collapse in late 2010, 2011 for sure

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    IF, then yes.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hi Var, agreed, what the heck will the US do then??? We look like a bunch of bumpkins!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    they can afford it

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    and our dollar is SH-T :(((

  • Vardoger

    A:D 7:1

    I guess I'm tracking for a long on any pullback to around /es 1046. I won't be surprised if we paint a bull flag here

  • Woolly Llama

    Did anyone mention the raise in australian rates and its affect on the dollar today?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Out of all long RIMM looking to do a short spread soon. :)

  • TheCrowe

    Harv, Anna bailed on her bull call spread yesterday near the highs. As you probably know, she's $money$, so you might bail out too. best of luck!

  • anthem

    yeah, looks like it. This small 2 pt consolidationg doesn't look good. . .

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yes. I have been tracking this one closely. Have a look further down.

  • peder1001

    hi anna :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    when are the freaking US peeps going to WAKE UP and see that our currency is devaluing at such a fast rate, and their 401Ks are really 201 K s or less?????

  • pricey

    I am long the dollar so hold on tight!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    me too, but it could hit 75.90 area first. (ouch) :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They would be 200.5Ks. And no, see lazy fat-ass U.S. citizen comment below. When was the last time you saw someone get outraged (besides about american idol)??

    Skål!

  • harveydent

    well the lower the USD. higher equities right? :)
    i know not the truth historically…

  • Nightwind

    Hey Anna, my mattress bank is going DOWN

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yea, the fluff is out :)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you know my standard explanation why Joe Schmoes are not capable of understanding what we understand?
    (ref George Carlin as always)
    Plus with FED debasing currency – where else to put money? equities/commodities/stove?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    To a point, what happens when the chinese have had enough of this SH-T (they are stockpiling Gold/metals/commodities…(for a reason )

  • rosocecasita

    JPY or EUR

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am livid that no one gets it they have tunnel vision with the exception of a few… Our economy will finally crash around us. But by then it's too late.

  • buyemsellem2000

    Very long TZA at 12.15.
    Got up late,probably a good thing. What the hell letter were they talking about on CNBC??

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    So true David :)

  • harveydent

    well then yours and many theories (big picture) is right and our economy hits the fan. not everyone can be as wise as you!

  • vision_invisible

    There is mania in the air. Even on this board.

    Suddenly valuations are going to go through the roof because our currency depreciates to DXY 70? Bullshit.

    Where is the rising wages that would allow these companies to charge the SAME or MORE. How will people pay MORE for the same product (in the devalued currency).

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    the Big Picture is the US has no game plan…the central bankers are clueless as they were in 2007, thanks Ben Burnmybutt. LOL

  • harveydent

    hey check out UNH. picture perfect IHS.

  • AS2009

    Dollar (UUP) bounced from support @ 22.6 …

  • harveydent

    i wonder if i should stop pursuing an education/career in concentration Finance + IBanking.
    Actually serious question…what do you guys think? Failed career for another 5 years until we fix our economy?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    good eye

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Harvey you go for it, you could be a real asset to what we need :)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    not touching carry trades for long term holdings – you never know when it will reverse, and when it will – there will be no time to get out

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    may be you are placing too much pressure on your mattress?

  • DesertEagle

    Anything to make stocks go up and reflate the Ponzi scheme, Anna. Cheerleaders like Barron's & CNBC could care less if DXY went to 50 as long as their 401k doubled. It's all just a shell game.

  • colonel_bleep

    Hedge funds are long, hence this morning's rumors of the dollar being replaced as oil pricing mechanism, which is bullish. Just the opposite of last year when they were short and all the rumors were bearish.

  • bshah

    Out of curiosity… What news is driving this fucking bs higher…?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you got to pick either one of those
    stiff
    or
    drink

  • shortcover

    i guess us bears can hope that the final wave is truncated and doesn't crack the old highs…but the frustration factor is about right for it…

  • hank30

    The balloon is deflating…

  • Nightwind

    Those damn mason jars are tough on your spine

  • harveydent

    why thank you :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    adding a unit of short ES here. My previous shorts remain (albeit being held up by a diminishing belt buckle)

  • dollar

    Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia hasn’t held talks with other oil producers and major consuming nations such as China on moving away from the dollar as the currency used to buy and sell oil, Saudi Central Bank Governor Muhammad al-Jasser said.

    Al-Jasser, speaking to reporters in Istanbul where he’s attending an International Monetary Fund summit, was denying a report in the London-based Independent newspaper, which said today that Gulf oil producers and customers including China and Brazil had held secret talks on phasing out the dollar in oil pricing.

    The Independent report is “absolutely incorrect” and there has been “absolutely nothing” of that nature discussed between Saudi Arabia and other countries, al-Jasser said.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Dollar crashing

  • Bart7

    another reason I think it's a good contrary indicator and may mark a bottom in the dollar soon

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    dollar dump

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    who needs news when the FED gives free cash for watering the green sprouts on equity?

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    You don't have to choose if you get the order right though. :-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yes, at what point does the equity tape realize a devalued dollar is bad for us. ??

  • Vardoger

    Retesting the break of the 7-13 to 9-3 trendline on SPX?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    :-)

  • rosocecasita

    Aye, i don't do Forex.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ok that needs to be it. Right here. Right now. Die you mother…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    GS is not following this huge rally ??? hmmmm

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Jack let's go out on the bay and do some grouper fishing :)

    I still fish with my Daddy sometimes…but I always throw them back :-)

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Now that sounds a lot more fun than this.

    We could use Mike V as bait.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bought some Alcoa Puts.

  • DesertEagle

    Amen

  • Vardoger

    Gmak you out there? It seems we are getting that re-test we talked about last Thursday.

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    My guess is that they crash the markets after Oct. OPEX. Too much open interest on the OCT SPY Puts for the markets to go down now.

  • skynard

    Good point. Makes sense to me.

  • peder1001

    yeh, but thats what we all thought in aug and sept opex.

  • Nightwind

    To Berk: The majority of Americans have never experienced a true bear market in their life times and at your age…neither have you. Like I tell my older sons, I can't give them first hand advice on how this will play out, only that to prepare for the worst and then some. This will be a world crash, not just US. If we are lucky, it will be swift and not like the Japanese bloodletting.

  • edgetraderplus

    Re fiat Fed$…not showing any ability to rally off lows. Will go lower to find support.
    30 min intra day ranges relatively wide, not a positive sign for demand…

  • Douala

    If $USD breaks 76 then next target is 74.50.

  • anthem

    pretty big resistance@188. . . also pretty big move by financials yesterday.

    But eventhen, yes I agree with you. a bit surprised. DOn't worry, we'll get a small correction and then GS will ramp up and pull the rest of the market with them. .

  • Hanuman

    Nightwind,

    What's your timeframe for this crash? This insane rally has burnt me very bad so far.

    Thanks.

  • edgetraderplus

    1051 area, now a little higher, can be important reistance, intra day, if price starts to
    break soon. If not, price will continue to absorb selling and work higher, putting the
    daily trend in a firmer position.

    re esz

  • losershot
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Oh, and I am not claiming that I have. I can't even remember the Tech Bubble except when I look at a 10 year chart of the $NDX.

    I am just saying… Where are the protests. Where is the angst. Even from the younger generation (as I am) where? where? where?

    I mean, now we are content to sit in our suburban homes and bitch about the hardships that we “feel” are being thrown at us. Fully forgetting, or never even knowing, what a hardship truly is.

    And for the record, my grandparents are in their 90's and both remember the Great Depression quite well. I listen to my elders…

    Skål!

  • Meshugga

    So were sitting on 1057 which is a key number for me. Sold my SPY calls here. Tempted to fade this but the f-n govt and pomo bullshit makes it tricky.
    XLF seems to be hitting a wall of resistance at $15.01-$15.06, going to short it instead.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I have the DX (360 min bar or 1/4 day) on a TD Buy Setup Bar 9. This will complete (should unless we really fall out of bed from here) over a TDST support level on the same chart of 76.13. This bar ends at noon (obviously).

  • Vardoger

    We are right at the 20-month MA

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    I feel like a lab rat, and the negative reinforcement is brainwashing me to never go short again…too much pain. Normally this is a sign that a top is near, but I am burnt out.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer
  • rosocecasita

    Bought .UUPKW

  • mattco

    Just read that the US Treasury is going to auction $10 billion in 16 day bills. Is that normal? Who the fuck buys 2 week treasuries? I have never heard of that before.

  • edgetraderplus

    Broad strokes, but on point for no one knows when it will hit, just that it will,
    but I suspect not swift at all…at all. Imaginary currencies are killing the real world.

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    Ya, Grouper are too cool to eat.
    If you're a diver, Grouper are the one of the best fish to see on the reef!
    Ever goto John Pennekamp Park in the Keys?

  • Vardoger

    Shit, the “real” world is doing better every day our economies contract. Think about it

  • Anonymous

    I do not think we have anything close to fascism.We have IMO the most open and honest electoral process in the world. Not by any means perfect but the best.
    I also believe that as a sovereign power we can protect our interests however we choose to define them, that’s realpolitik in action. To allow others to dictate our interests would bring about our destruction. It is also why I understand the rebellion against our intrusions.
    Thirdly, one of the principal reasons for our economic problems has been the refusal of China to revalue its currency and to keep it artificially cheap so that they could promote their own internal policies. The decline in the USD is simply us forcing it upon them. The commodity currencies are rising with the demand for resources and are for he most part not important. The major currencies EUR and GBP bounce around the USD due to relative economic issues but generally revert back to some norm. As we recover from this horrible economic event, the USD will recover vs. EUR etc. It’s a matter of int. rates and which economy recovers first and fastest. My guess is that most countries are ok with the USD decline and the others are jawboning to increase international political power.

  • Anonymous

    You got a better place to compare it with?

  • Vardoger

    Anyone have a moment to consider that we are re-testing the break of the bearish wedge we have been since July 13? It's not all that uncommon to retest a pattern like that, right?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Breakout to the upside coming?

    http://screencast.com/t/KIsOFO0vVfi1

    Is anyone using OTM Nov calls as a hedge for their Mar puts?

  • Anonymous

    Compared to what? I’d take my chances here as opposed to anywhere else in the world.

  • trader69

    some days I wonder why I do not listen to the old saying…if the market is in an uptrend, you buy the dips….no questions asked—until it stops working. My only consolation is that I short the rips, but the profits only last 3-4 days tops. you can say burnt out. I can't wait for the top to be in. the similarities b/w end of june, end of Aug and now are uncanny, its not funny anymore.

  • standard_and_poor

    Closed 3% position in shorts from 1044 at close to break even.
    Next stop is 1070 for remaining 2% of shorts from 1070 spx.

  • Nightwind

    You're actually dead on, but my older sons (about your age) look at me like I'm fucking crazy. In their defense, they don't have your economic education or foresight. This episode in our history will change America forever in my opinion and hopefully for the better.

  • TheCrowe

    just heard that the dollar is moving to the pink sheets… uup.pk

  • anthem

    Some serious ramping going on. After the initial bell, there have been two very large spikes in volume, one around 10:40, the other around 5 minutes ago. Both spikes were about triple the volume. . . Looks like another one happenened a few minutes ago as well.

  • Nightwind

    Timeframe: only God knows. Being burnt, that makes two of us. Probally the safest bet on the short side is breaking of the arithmetic lower trendline of the spx and wait for retest

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You can't give me credit for “economic education.” All that amounts to with me was one semester of economics in High school being taught by our Baseball coach. Granted, I did get extra credit for laughing at his jokes…

    But, thanks…

    Skål!

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Almost a 20 point move up in the SPX with little retrace……

  • PeterK80

    ERX is taking off… crazy. No signs of slowing.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm calling a breakout. I picked up some SPY Nov 107 calls a few minutes ago to deal with this.

  • shortcover

    nabbing TZA…

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    I think you are right Vardoger, but with the trend in the dollar, how can we be sure?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Anthem, what feed do you have that shows that data…..the one I have has sketchy volume data….

  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    We have launched a new Options discussion board for anyone interested in specific options chat:
    http://www.optionsvista.com/forums.html
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  • DesertEagle

    Because no government wants to hold longer than 2 weeks..Can't say as I blame them.

  • rosocecasita

    For fucks sake, let this be a bull fake out, i'm fucking tired of lossing money, and having my profits turn to losses,

    Fck1

  • Nightwind

    Tell you a funny story. I was working during the '87 crash and didn't know it happened until I got to trading stocks in 1994. Like most folks, I lived my life in a bubble.

  • rosocecasita

    Yeah, atm we could have broken out of the down channel with a slight overthrow

  • Turps

    Let me know if this is a long way off base but the U.S. is still the largest consumer of oil. Why would the U.S. do anything other than pay $U.S. for oil. wouldn't this just force everyone else to sell in $U.S.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm with you Malus – and I think we are all worn out. This is not fun anymore – but as traders we owe it to ourselves to keep our composure. Go out there – take a walk around your neighborhood and work off the stress – then come back.

  • http://colechambers.com cc

    Be careful you might get whipsawed on both sides of your trade.

  • AS2009

    Dollar (UUP) breakdown warning – we are hitting against 22.60 multiple times here ..

  • rosocecasita

    they are angry, and they are doing things, look at You Tube,

    The second revolution won't be broadcast on T.V.

  • rosocecasita

    Lol, that's 2000 for me =)

  • Vardoger

    Looks as though TNX wants to retest the major 38. 2% @ 32.9

  • rosocecasita

    thanks mate, i'm doing that right now,

    Still holden, but fuck me does this take the stainless steel rat mentality,

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have a conditional order to sell my SPY Nov 107 calls should SPX drop below my channel midpoints.

    http://screencast.com/t/KIsOFO0vVfi1

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Is your SN taken from a band's album?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Actually, it's taken from a photo book.

  • Lordted

    I don't use chanels in that way but interesting chart.

  • rosocecasita

    much better now!

  • hank30

    I'm glued to my seat watching spx 1061. If we break, It'll take some shorts off the table. Some indicators signal a different pattern going on than the fractal suggested by Mole. MACD signal has not crossover on the daily chart, despite a 41 points move. We may start heading down to 1042.

  • orth

    The 60 minute trend lines on the $spx and spy, nor have the dailies been broken. keeping it simple for now with my short covers based on this principle. However I made sure that I did not set them until after the volataile first 1hr. Things for the bears have shown continual improvement sense the first hour. The triq and trin show overbought.

  • orth

    I agree.