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Lottery Longs
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Lottery Longs

by The MoleFebruary 9, 2016

I just grabbed a small amount of lottery longs near 1835 where I’m seeing a small cluster of hourly Net-Line Sell Lines (NLSLs). Now as the name implies – if those are breached and we push below yesterday’s lows then continuation to the downside is pretty much baked in.

2016-02-09_spoos

So to be crystal clear – I’m trading against the trend here and looking at the daily chart we can all agree that there isn’t much to be bullish about. However, that said – when things look completely hopeless and everyone’s waiting for a slide into the abyss is exactly the moment I often throw a lottery long on the wall just for giggles. If you follow along here don’t risk more than 1/2R and keep a wide stop.

2016-02-08_zero

In case you are wondering what would behoove the Mole to engage in such suicidal trading activities then take a look at the Zero snapshot yesterday. It’s looking pretty divergent there on the hourly panel but of course that’s no guarantee.

2016-02-09_NQ

Now even IF we bounce today or sometime later this week – it is important to realize that the LT damage is already on the books. The NQ has now given up its last remaining support levels and that completely changes the medium and long term picture. A rally higher from here IMO only represents lower cost short entry opportunities as the current formation does not fit into the scenario of a bull market correction. The monthly panel has not incurred this much damage for years and the 25-month SMA used to be as close to a shoe-in for the bulls if there ever was one. I think we are truly looking at the first ‘sign of recognition’ here.

2016-02-09_gold

Gold Update – I took out a small short position yesterday, right after it scraped the 1200 mark. In the interim my paper profits have melted away like snow in the spring sun and I’m only ticks away from being stopped out at b/e. No matter though – the daily is looking exponential like heck and if it pushes higher from here I’ll probably jump in again at the first sign of weakness.

I’m not seeing anything I like on the setup front today. Things are starting to look pretty ugly here and I’m seeing a sea of red across all verticals with the exception of the EUR, gold, and the bonds. Strap on your helmets folks, this is either one big bear trap or we’re heading into rough waters today or tomorrow.

Words To The Wicked

Keep it frosty and keep it small – don’t try to force entries just because you want to catch a seat on the bus. Things are in flux and intra-day volatility continues to increase. Which means the odds of even your most conservative stops being swiped increases exponentially. Remember that we cannot force the hand of the market – we only can control our own activities. If in doubt cash is a position.

10_commandments

One of our intrepid steel rats copied my 10 rules of surviving a bear market a few weeks ago and turned it into an image. Thanks for that because I actually meant to do that myself but then completely forgot about it. Given the drama I’ve seen unfold in the comment section I think a friendly reminder may be in order.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    Thanks for the early comment – I have been watching the hourly as well and was wondering whether it was telling us something important or whether we need to just fully adjust our lens back to the Nov 2007 – March 2009 period.

    That is where my focus is right now (and 2000 – 2003)- just going back to all of the bear periods to be reminded that more OS can just get more OS and things that generally provide an edge above the 200 day MA can be quite useless below it.

    Thanks,

    -D

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy, it’s looking UGLY out there – everything is on the way down, equities, dollar, futures. The only symbol that’s ramping today is the EUR/USD.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I’d like to see a first hour scare the children moment. (S2 Pivot)
    say Spoos 1819? Then ramp it long against the fear buyers.
    To result in a go-nowhere day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What the heck – it’s tape á la carte today 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mentioned in the post and it’s possible we may see another ramp higher. I don’t like to sit and watch my charts all day and these things can push a lot higher than one would imagine. But if I see an entry I’ll point it out here. Per holding or grabbing long positions – well, your call but look at my LT chart I posted yesterday.

  • Kato33

    Long HG at 2.025. Price was rejected at the upper 25d BB and has moved down to the 25d. And there was a nice spike down on the previous hourly bar. ISL just below the day’s low.

  • MK Ultra

    “Where have all the system traders gone? I stop by and all I see is a lot of discretionary opinion. Where have all the traders gone?” -grant

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, stop by more often, mate.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, Thanks for yet another crystal clear post. You are the best.

  • BKXtoZERO

    still in my CL long from yesterday. 29.8 stop was hit this morning but I stayed with it manually due to general market set up. UWTI 1.69 entry so 1.61 no big whoop

  • Time Bandit

    Mornin Folks,

    Crude has held above my latest turning point for the past 8 Trading days and has also held it’s own against the Equity Market’s swoon as of late. So I made an exception and closed my Short at the “Open” at BE this morning and began a small Long Position. The past few days have been what I would call “Tweener Days”. The bottom line is that I don’t mind a few trades at break even or even at small losses while waiting for the next run. Unfortunately where price is positioned at this moment, I can’t give this one a wide stop and a close below $29.40 and I’m out.

    I’m also still long Basic Materials and Utilities.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in good company! I feel same. I like it because it is close to decision point so keeping it tight also.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Out of QQQ small long on near gap fill. Flat and waiting for my info EOD.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, great call on the ES long. I took a long NQ on that first spike up around 9:35 and I am up big on that 80 pt move up.

    Whats your ES target?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Depending on where we close, looking at taking a GLD/ GDX short but so far looks interesting. Starting to stagnate a little bit above the upper BB.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Exited the long and went short nq. Let’s not get carried away here folks, its a bear market and you will get raped

  • Kato33

    The 25h BBs are squeezing in nicely on GC and SI. We may have our direction shortly

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh it is setting up pretty good. I like how the weekly is setting up but will wait to go short after I see more churn/ weakness on the daily.

  • mugabe

    all requests gratefully accepted, but no guarantee that responded to favourably

  • Time Bandit

    So you say you like Volatility eh? :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited all the TVIX about 20 min ago.

  • BKXtoZERO

    being patient so far

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m hoping to see some 9 handle again.

  • BKXtoZERO

    hoping for 1870 spx

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of UWTI

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • BKXtoZERO

    outside blowing air through gable vents as spray in insulation is blocking them. More fun stuff on crappy house

  • Billabong

    Consider the other side of the coin … Are they stagnating or bleeding off excess energy? I’m watching tier 1 miners and they’ll run-up, get outside the BB (20,-2,2) and drift back, bleeding off energy. And then run-up again. This is a strong move underway.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Exited the short

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    fallback skillz, that’s a good thing.

    http://ultraimg.com/images/Hammer.md.jpg

  • Time Bandit

    You probably did the right thing. I have a small position in UCO so unless things get ridiculous, I can ride it until the close to see if it still qualifies as a stop out.

  • Round we go

    “If in doubt cash is a position” yep going back to waiting for short entry in overbought daily condition. Patience is virtue maybe in play for a month. will see.

  • Time Bandit

    Be careful about thinking when it comes to the markets. I’ve done it twice this month and have been wrong both times.

    The markets want you to think. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • nyse

    LMAO

  • BKXtoZERO

    CL chart to me and everyone else looks to be headed to 25 (at least). My “thinking” was that is was too obvious and was looking for an abortive pattern. THINK or swim, STINK and SINK. I like the charting but you are right it isn’t very intuitive.

  • mugabe

    that’s the possible advantage of
    a) 100% rule-based or automated systems
    b) systems where you do nothing during market hours

  • Darkthirty

    Or scalp minute charts, don’t get caught in the mess as much that way

  • Billabong

    I wouldn’t put a day/time stamp on it, I would allow it to flow like a river through life … Is that LT oil majors trade starting to align like stars in heaven or is it just a retest of the recent CL low?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Toxic tape! How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe – I got stopped out at b/e and I’m not too unhappy about it as this tape is looking like shit.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Pretty good so far.

  • Billabong

    Fourth red candle day? Thanks for keeping the ship upright…

  • BKXtoZERO

    working on my house that only a former EWI subscriber could afford.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    dog house?

  • Kishore Kumar

    Playing snake and ladders.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Lest anyone forget, tomorrow begins the Fed Chair’s semiannual report to Congress.
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

    Also, don’t discount US political news today and tomorrow. Today is the New Hampshire primary, and there’s a good chance that Trump and Sanders will come out on top. I’m not saying this will have an immediate tradeable effect, but damn ……. change is obviously afoot in US politics.
    http://www.wmur.com/politics/2016-full-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-election-results/37649066

  • kudra

    I understand that I am not in the crew, more of a pariah, but i’m hanging in there, not trading, and watching my upside down current positions. Gold keeps bumping its head on 1,200. Perhaps, per billbong’s thesis, gathering strength for the second leg of the breakout or simply finding the upper end of the range in a long-term downtrend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    As minority whip of the leeches, you may fit the criteria.
    Maybe. Do you like blood pudding?
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    priced in.

  • Kato33

    Swapped my ES long for an NQ short after the open and that quick hourly punch through the upper 25h BB. Still long GC, SI, and ZB. Patiently waiting for GC and SI to resolve

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re brave – I have to stick with my system here. Jumping in/out based on these swings can quickly lead to over trading.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is that an Indian or Pakistani activity? 😉

  • mugabe

    what is your plan for these positions?

  • Kato33

    I hear ya. Those words have been in the back of my mind most of the day. My stops are set and there won’t be any second guessing if they’re hit

  • mugabe

    long term portofolios have been heavily in euros (which is my cash) or euro bonds for a week so. I might have said good bye to the dollar for a while and might be saying hello to gold soon.we’ll see.

  • Time Bandit

    It’s like anything new and is complex. The charting can be difficult at first but after you’ve messed with it awhile it becomes a lot easier and might even make sense.

  • mugabe

    so if clinton wins, it’s not priced in:)

  • OzarkHillBilly

    You can’t price in anything when you don’t know what the Q&A will entail. But there usually aren’t any big surprises in this testimony.

    And how would we price in a Sanders presidency? Not that I think that will happen, but can anyone really imagine what it will be like if Trump and Sanders win their party’s nominations? It will be fun to watch the political pundits try to make sense of this as the year goes by. For our non USA participants, the New Hampshire primary is much more predictive than the Iowa primary, especially on the Republican side.

  • Kishore Kumar

    For the market the “future” is history before it becomes news? The “news” is corruptive to trading? Information diet is good for a trader’s account. Destiny is in the charts irrespective of trader’s zodiac sign. But are the charts what the market is or are the charts partially fake, considering hi freq trading and unreported trades of the dark pools?

  • mugabe

    if only I knew what was priced in and wasn’t priced in:)

  • Time Bandit

    I’m coughing up some ugly Toxic Looking Shit.

    It appears that that I made my second Fuck Up in less than a week. I’ve been doing everything at the close and have a 15 Year Back Test that says this is what I should do for my System. This morning I Cyphered again. And just when I “thought” that the way Crude price was acting, it was OK to switch to the Open this one time, I was FUCKING WRONG. I’m not pissed off at the market because this is what the market does. But I’m pissed at myself for going off plan twice in one week. I should be a fat cat right now enjoying the Crude short that I so “smartly” got rid of this morning.

    I also might have compounded this morning’s error by selling a February 20 USO $8/$8.50 Credit Call Spread that might, just might, make up for most of this morning’s fuck up. Or that can turn into a loss too if the Friday Feb 19, close on USO is above $8.20.

    Moral of the story is don’t ever think you can figure this shit out through conventional logic. Make your plan before hand and stick to it. Don’t let the market talk to you about changing what you do. It’s like an addiction that seductively talks to you and says hey you can do it. It won’t hurt you. Come on you know you want to. . .

    Sorry, I should have began this story as a confession by saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned”. . . :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ok, confession is good.

    WTF? are you even looking at the higher time frames?
    sounds like your thinking is based on wiggles, and jiggles. not long(er) term indicators. am I correct?

    EDIT: I used to be seduced by 3 and 5 min candles. only when I upped to 30 and 60 candles did I fare even remotely better. People are looking up to you, You got The Scott trader of the year recommendation. Represent!
    😉

  • mugabe

    that last comment is interesting – I can sort of see why .. more moderate republicans up there, no?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    you’re thinking too much mate. (see graphic below).

    forget the WHY? trade the WHAT.
    trade the tape given.

  • Time Bandit

    Absolutely. I trade off of Daily Charts and normally have very wide stops. In this particular case when I went long price was already very close to my stop.

    Another thing is that I am a MOMO guy and do not like to trade “perceived” support and resistance. The Fucking MOMO is DOWN and in a way I allowed myself to catch a falling knife. This was stupid.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re chasing your own tail mate. Slow it down and clearly define your entry and target BEFORE placing a trade. That also includes the campaign management. Which means you’re riding out the campaign until one of two things happen:

    1) You get stopped out (that may be also your trail).
    2) You get to target.

    That’s it – NO IFS AND NO BUTS. Otherwise you’re just a leaf in the wind trading your opinions which apparently change fifteen times an hour.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “In this particular case when I went long price was already very close to my stop.”

    Are you even READING my posts? Alright, I’m outside kicking a tree…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X8PBglHfVo

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Anything you can learn from, is an advantage in my book.
    fade the emotion, next thousand trades (with improvements of course)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Even stupid things happen; In covering 1000 in that last brief TVIX rally, I mistakenly clicked and added another 1000. So being incorrectly-then double the long, this removed a chunk of today’s gains…for a truly stupid mechanical neglect reason.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    done it. not at that Magnitude!
    breath deep, slowly revert the trade. part of the biz.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I may have to slow down my initial campaign management. I keep seeing good positions get stopped out a bit early because my trail goes to break/even after 1.2R. However that also have kept me out of trouble a few times. Perhaps I’m falling prey to recency bias – what do you guys think?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    great idea. BUT. how many observations? and just for today, or over many random days? To act on a too small observation could be curve fitting? tuning for the NOW, not the campaign.

  • Time Bandit

    And that’s what I’ve been doing and my trading over the past 3 Months has been outstanding. However, what I just tried to do is explain just how easy it is to get away from a winning system. Everyone can screw up and besides, there’s nobody else to tell this stuff to that would have a clue to understanding what I’m talking about. :)

  • hellbent

    Hi Boss. This is an old bug bear of mine… I believe there is no edge to be found using B/E at all. Trail, yes, but ignore the entry and use some other logic. Should be easy to backtest.

  • mugabe

    appreciate your honesty … as you say, everyone can screw up

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Obviously you don’t want to change how you do things due to recency bias …. but it’s an entirely different thing to recognize that the game has recently changed. If you can objectively identify this, then a certain change, albeit short-term may be warranted. The risk/reward ratio comes to mind as a top consideration here, if one can objectively (there’s that word again) think about that without $ signs appearing in one’s eyes.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Tape improving right here.

  • almez

    DB stock has spiked up. I think this is driving market higher

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I sold my options when we briefly hit new lows. Maybe we still go lower, but I was sitting on too much potential to potentially let it slip away. Things look better for the bulls here, but I’m taking a breather before getting on board the next train.

  • Time Bandit

    I understand the reasoning behind this and have actually tried it. I now believe it reduces the actual amount of net profit over time via lost opportunity costs. This is simlilar to the decision of whether or not to take Partial Profits. Psychologically it is better. However I believe you make more money by not doing it. So it depends on whether psychological payment outweighs monetary payment (Over Time).

  • Mark Shinnick

    VERY interesting you mention this because DB is one of those financials which has been significantly lower than 2008/9.

  • hellbent

    Get the money :)

  • mugabe

    sitting tight. only made 0.4R on mine so far … 0,5R at tops

  • OzarkHillBilly

    That’s definitely what i was thinking, but I’m in a different boat. Might jump in another before the day is over, but only if there’s a legit reason.

  • mugabe

    yeah … over the long term more pain often means more profits in the long run.
    the problem is, stops have to take into account the volatility of the trading environment (which is objectively measurable).

  • Time Bandit

    ” can anyone really imagine what it will be like if Trump and Sanders win their party’s nominations?”

    Yes, if elected, Trump will make Putin pay for our Missle Defense to defend us against the Ruskies and Putin had better “do it quickly”. :) If Bernie is elected, a lot of Ultra Right Wingers will re-open “Jonestown” for a special cyanide coolade drinking party.

  • hellbent

    Entry logic, stop logic and target logic. My comment above was was actually an agreement that executing the target was good. We are weak on target logic here.

  • mugabe

    I get the impresion Trump probably is not a great boss to have:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tough to be perfect every time especially during high volatility , I have erred on the side of caution and churn.

  • mugabe

    Mole,
    Spanish stockmarket makes national headlines:
    http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2016/02/09/actualidad/1455005629_138681.html
    It’s been a real crock of sh*t and never got anywhere near the 2007 highs before heading south again. Not a good buy and hold market, lol.

  • Time Bandit

    OMG, could you even imagine? This goes to show what a Billion Dollars can buy.

    It’s all our own fault because the Primaries bring out the zealots on both sides while a lot of moderates stay home. So what we usually end up with has a polarizing effect.

  • Time Bandit

    Hard to believe but at this moment, my accounts are green on the day.

    Had it all the way. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    like I said, go-nowhere day.
    LOL.
    (Spoos nearly even, hour to go)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Shorted NQ 3988

  • Kishore Kumar

    Just riding the market on 5 minute charts, up and down, that appears to be following the pattern of the old game of Snake and Ladders.

  • Billabong

    Don’t forget US going into long weekend with markets closed on the Monday, 18 Feb…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I don’t know yet. I am watching hourly + daily. I have 4 scenarios

    1. we continue blasting up
    2. pause as you mention then blast up
    3. small pullback then blast up
    4. pullback to within the multiyr range

    Right now, I don’t have enough info to narrow it down. Still watching…

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Not to mention that the primaries and parties themselves are fairly corrupt. We wouldn’t be in the position we are now, otherwise. The next few years will be very interesting.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Covered at 3954

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Its only Tuesday

  • Time Bandit

    Agreed.

  • Time Bandit

    Man! You must have grabbed over 100 Points today. Congrats. :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks. I banked coin today. Love these zig zag days, scalper’s paradise.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Stick to your plan. You hold longer than I do and days like today really shake out both sides.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Shorted a small position NQ 3949, lotto play into the close

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out at 3938, calling it a day

  • Darkthirty

    And invite all the progressives!

  • kudra

    better context now? GDX gave back 4% today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Attempt to paint a floor. Whether it’ll hold is another question. Thus far the pattern has been sell offs overnight into the open, followed by a bounce toward the EOD – rinse and repeat.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What does ‘los principales parqués’ mean? Nothing to do with parks I take it…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not really the issue. I’m considering changing my system’s trailing rules – that’s the topic.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    May have a point here. My swing trading systems do test out with a higher win/loss ratio, lower standard dev, but less overall profits. Meaning a more gradual ordered curve as opposed to more volatility but more coin.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I know. Your option is setting a wider trail in this type of market in which you will incur a loss if hit rather than breakeven in current example. Why change up is what Im asking.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That actually is my point. But perhaps just widening my stops more would take care of that as well. Of course that reduces my leverage a little and I get to trade less contracts. Not an issue on forex at all but it can be a pain on crude for instance due to the $5000 handle size.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually did back test this 😉 See my comment to TimeBandit above.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, so you basically deviated from a system that seems to work for you. Take that lesson to the bank my friend.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Either a wider stop or moving the trailing thresholds higher. Right now I’m moving to -0.5R at 0.5R and to BE at 1.2R – I could shift that to -0.75/0.75 and BE/1.5. I may try both approaches and see what happens.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you using the Zero or do you have your own set of lenses?

  • Time Bandit

    DEAL! As far as I’m concerned you could take the far right and the far left and send them all to Jonestown.

  • Time Bandit

    Yep. I’ve done twice the size I wanted, bought when I should have sold and sold when I should have bought. There’s not too many mistakes that I haven’t made. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mine has to be set by the time I have to go to work. How is that for a limitation? Get in, sweat, set, leave for work and forget…. take peaks etc til lunch (last hour).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is perfect actually as it commits you to a campaign. I do the same thing actually – I get the post up, set my campaigns and then head to the gym for two hours. I don’t even check the tape on my phone during that time.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I thought the reason was obvious. Volatility is increasing – I even talked about it in my post.

  • mugabe

    main stockmarkets

  • mugabe

    simple take: take what you normally do and multiply distance by your measure of increased volatility e.g x1.5, x2.
    take profits when you don’t like what you risk giving up.

  • mugabe

    FWIW, smart money indicator signalling possible long term top (add it to the collection):

    http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/139005200580/intraday-trading-indicator-showing-shades-of-2000

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, I am using a combination of the Zero, my 5 and 15 min charts of NQ and ES, my hourly/daily charts, VIX, TRIN, volume, Oil, and a few other intraday indicators to help me make my decisions on trading the direction of NQ. Lately it has been working well for me, but Im not always right and do get stopped out with a loss, so to everyone here, dont follow my trades blindly if you are. I like to post my NQ trades here because it helps me stay disciplined by telling you guys about it and following up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, that was my original plan – seems as I need to be even more conservative with my stop if I keep the current trail thresholds. That is really the issue. In the past I used to do it manually, now that I’ve automated it I’m trying to find that sweet spot. Clearly volatility needs to be taken in consideration.

    It’s amazing what the human brain does naturally without even thinking about it. At least for me. Telling my auto system do the same thing usually involves effort.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You don’t need to be always right to be successful. Instead of trying to be constantly right I suggest you focus on your campaign management. That’s where the real gold is… but as you can see from the discussion below, it requires work.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate.

  • hellbent

    Of course you did :) So the real question is how to feed market conditions back into position size/ISL and distance to trail (possibly delay too).

    Does ATR alone do the job…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks. I do need to work on better campaign management even for intraday scalping. The thing with scalping is that each campaign lasts a very short time, and the profit/loss is realized rather quickly.

  • mugabe

    you need a a machine learning algo in there!

  • Billabong

    May result in an upside bias for next three trading days…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Long modest QQQ, DUST at close

  • kudra

    upside equities = downside gold

  • Kishore Kumar

    An obvious antidote to getting stopped out prematurely may be to get back in. You may need another rule for getting back in, at the next opportunity. Moreover, as you don’t like to watch charts, it may be suitable for automated trading. However, getting back in may also mean that you are exposing yourself to another stop loss in a quick succession without much reevaluation of the first stop loss. You may have already tested this approach. Please let us know. Mucho Gracias! Danke Schön, Herr Führer!

  • Billabong

    It could … price action will tell us.

  • Kishore Kumar

    On today’s 5 minute chart of /ES, the “snake and ladder pattern” (ladder stick ups followed by slow bleeds of snake bites) has so much resemblance to a bear flag. What a coincidence! Are we preparing for the third big leg down? /NQ has already been on its way and /TF is a borderline case. Is /NQ the leader, for /ES to follow?

  • Kishore Kumar

    Sir Mole III, the above article reminds me of my maiden (my very first – initiative) posting on your forum, reproduced below:

    Running On Fumes
    Kishore Kumar 2 years ago

    Hello Mole, Thanks for sharing your wisdom so freely. Please
    consider the following:

    If one uses tick charts, one an see that the up moves are mostly
    stick moves, i.e. the tick volume is very low.

    This means that the amount of money that is used to cause that
    move is a lot smaller than what it would be if the move takes place
    over a larger number of ticks. The move up is caused by intense
    buying, most proboably coordinated. Also, it takes less money to
    cause the moves during the overnight sessions.

    Now look at the down moves after a stick move up. They are
    normally spread out over a much larger number of ticks. So, it
    appears that there is a net distribution.

    The moral of the story is that the money bags who cause the stick
    moves up by intense buying can keep making money so long the
    distribution is done slowly over a larger volume.

    In short, the ability of the fictious bids for holding prices, as
    is being done, can allow this to go on forever, so long the buying
    is intense and coordinated and the distribution is kept slow and
    spread out over a larger voulume because each cycle is potentailly
    profitable for the money bags.

    Something to thing about!

  • OzarkHillBilly

    FWIW, I’ve found working with shorter time frames to be beneficial for me in regards to maintaining discipline.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey, I read through to the bottom past the rules tonight and saw you called me a “Steel Rat” for having saved your rule set. I consider it an honor! Thank You Sir!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    checking the Spoos and …
    My god, it’s. still. wiggling.

    http://i.imgur.com/disYqOg.gif

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Less religious. But also because of the means of voting; caucus states such as Iowa can skew more towards a locally appealing candidate that really runs a campaign focused on getting his supporters to the caucus meetings.

  • Billabong

    Yellen testimony starting @ 8:30 EST.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Taking off now…

  • mugabe

    that’s just what we need:) markets’ve been quiet lately .. need to kick start them

  • mugabe

    I think we’re all set … jelly good show

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I thought it was at 10:00am.

  • saltwaterdog

    it is, today and tomorrow

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Chart please

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Good morning. Have a great trading day everyone. Nqs are up 56 points overnight. Good short entry now or they keep rocketing higher today? We shall see how things open.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    it’s the udder pattern. dam udder.

  • saltwaterdog

    I guess the text was an 830 release and testimony at 10

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Been watching this for two hours, waiting for it to stop.