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Mad Monday Rub Down
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Mad Monday Rub Down

by The MoleOctober 5, 2009

This one is going to be quick as I’m not feeing so great today – either it’s allergies or it’s the Swine flu for sure 😉

Anyway, we expected a rally up but it pushed a bit harder than I had hoped for. We pushed well into the cluster of where a turning point must happen almost immediately – much higher than this and the short term bearish case is in trouble.

Today’s Zero signals were crystal clear. As you know I immediately smelled a rat last Friday when participation reduced to a slow simmer. And as expected we received a strong push back as scheduled. But this is not the chart that worries me.

This one is. The Oracle of the Daily Zero continues to paint that bullish fractal I’m all freaked out about. Today pretty much was two days in one compared with last time but this needs to start breaking down tomorrow otherwise we will push through the lines in the sand presented by Berk on Friday.

And this is step 2 of a buy signal (relative to equities) in development. If we drop below that tomorrow the bears are most likely toast again. Hey, wait – that’s us!

Program Trading Update:

evil.rat/ES: +6.75
evil.rat/NQ: -2.75 (ready to kick this one to the curb)
resident.evil/ES: +4.5
resident.evil/NQ: -1.75
geronimo/ES: +2.5 (actually +5 but one signal did not go out – we think we fixed that, it started when we upgraded to the latest version – rolled back for now)

That’s it for now – enjoy the rest of your afternoon, rats – life is short.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • innatedc

    Anna!! MOS missed HUGE!! Price all over the map though…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    yea Inna let's hope the conference call sucks tomorrow :)

  • molecool

    That's sweet :-)

  • C's & 3's
  • vision_invisible

    Guys, check out this Animal Spirits – Today's Day in the life of the market…complete with animal pics (GS is the alligator)
    Super funny.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wall-street-an

  • malusDiaz

    $NYHL: http://alturl.com/nnuk

    Resistance @ 20day SMA?

  • grednfer

    hard to be short this week….

    Treasurys were mixed Monday after the government received strong demand for its sale of $7 billion worth of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

    It was the first of four auctions happening this week in an effort to sell a total of $78 billion in U.S. debt. The government has held record-sized auctions of Treasurys in recent months to help service a growing deficit and fund its economic stimulus efforts.

    If they take out the SPX 20DMA……they'll keep going as long as they can.

  • gsavli

    And now, Lester turned bearish. Talking about screwing decent people up…

  • cramar

    I hope that Prechter's public prediction of a large market drop is not going to turn into another Glenn Neely miscue.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good summary
    great program trades today
    don't feel that well today either
    SO glad I am not going to see trading for 10 days – will be tanning on the beach and sucking on Piña colada (YES -THAT will be Piña colada)

  • Bart7

    He was about a week early on calling the March bottom as I recall, this argues for a bit more rally ahead…. perhaps into the Oct 8 Gann date? SPY up slightly after hours, unaffected by MOS it appears which is holding up fairly well up a tad now

  • trader69

    Long time lurker, first time poster, Mole, I love your blog. fwiw, tomorrow to be doji or nice red day. if not, we are going to beach the highs in the short term. I'm sure everyone can see that already, but I thought I post it anyway. I still think we get P3 before the end of October tho'.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    very nice, straightforward analysis Mole. That is spot on. Now all we can do is wait and see what tomorrow and the next 2-3 days bring.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Woo-hoo!!!! I can feel good about holding my SPY Calls overnight!

  • AS2009

    Awesome Mole – you bought back the real time updates :) :*

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Well, as soon as NYSE closed at 4PM, bid/ask spreads on CBOE's SPX options collapsed with put bid prices jumping up. This meant that the CBOE MMs were hedged wrong at the close and bidding up to buy back puts. (Remember, index options trade until the futures close at 4:15 Eastern.)

    So after cancelling my order earlier in the day over pennies really, after 4PM the outcry MMs took my spread order right down the middle of the bid/ask and gave me a fill. Patience won the battle vs. CBOE today, but only because it suited their needs, they know they'll get me on the bid/ask on the way out. 😉

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hey David – enjoy your trip! :)

  • ultrabear

    Hmmm.. had the swine flu a few months ago – have had worse hangovers frankly – the tonsillitis that came 3 weeks later, now that was a PITA – or at least the penicillin jab was lol

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Awww… Isn't Mole sweet. He turned the auto update back on. What a softy…

    Skål!

  • BaldEagle

    Great news +1

  • ultrabear

    *Yay* to that – and I see that it's new, improved so it doesn't shift the page while I type this for instance.

    Now if he can just organise a few hundred pounds of high explosive under this tape…

  • wooooo

    this has probably been discussed earlier in the day, but does anybody know what happened to moo's site?

  • bergs

    Thank you for turning on the auto updates.

    Berk, Quick question on at what degree we are in. EWI is still maintaining we are at minuette level. When I step back and look at how far this market could go down I can see Hockberg's point(EWI). Then I remembered some talk about the best scenario would be for a fast trip down vs the worst scenario would be a slow rollover, waste more resources and incurr more debt slowly letting the air out. Then the IMF would have to step in to buy our toilet paper. Hell, maybe they are already. They are in the process of selling 400 metric tons.

    I guess what I'm alluding to is those in charge have never done the best, always the worst. So I may change from minute to minuette.
    What ya think

  • TheMacroEconomist

    They were desperate to get those TIPS too. Per MarketWatch feed, investors bid $3.12 for every $1 of debt sold compared to an average of $2.10 at the last five sales of 10-year TIPS. Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 44% of the offering versus an average of 26% at the last five.

    That's good for my shares in the TIP ETF, which secure margin in the trading account. :)

    My take: foreign investors are betting that when push comes to shove, the Fed will opt for easy money at any sign the recovery is failing. Not a bullish sentiment for the USD…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the HE are already there.. to boost the stock to higher values

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Just cause you got the monkey off your back doesn't mean the circus has left town.
    George Carlin

  • dollar

    Mole you probably already know this but just in case:
    5:20 PM FTC updates its arcane Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising to include bloggers. From now on, a blogger endorsing a product without disclosing his connection to the company will face an $11,000 per-post fine. Soon to come: stricter standards for stock bloggers?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looks like every single blogger/blogspot site is down

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    fwiw, here's where i am

    alphahorn.blogspot.com

  • gsavli

    No gap up nor down today at the open. We just picked up from where we finished on friday.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    they are not on Bergs ??

  • http://rosabarba.livejournal.com Rosabarba

    It was up and running all day (http://bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com/ ), though some folks running IE (didn't catch the problem version or versions) were reporting trouble this morning.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Question of the day for me is anyone updated on the whipsaw on MOS???

    Are they waiting for the conference call?

  • jacksoo

    Hi David – I thght I'd book marked your site last week but can't now find it (duh!) – can you provide me the link again. Regards.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Jacksoo just hit his avatar REAL HARD LOL and you will bring drop down box with blog link in it :)

  • jacksoo

    Thx anna

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1 down, 14 to go, you've earned them 😉

  • bergs

    Yes my auto updating is working at this end right now.

  • upld2

    What's gold doing at 1017?

    Huh?

    Anyone have an explanation for that?

  • dollar

    Dollar in the toidy today?

  • upld2

    Shouldn't produce that much of a move though.

  • gsavli

    😉

  • trader69

    because I bought puts today. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Welcome Jack 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Me too! yeaaaaaaaaaaaa :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I hate CRAMER,,,,,What a clown heheheheh

  • Scrillhog

    Gold might make a big move this week?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    oops

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I have been bullish on GOLD for a while, any pullbacks to 990 should be bought :)

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Yeps, if equity doesn't fall gold must climb (medium term and with lags) s&p should end below 0,2 ounces

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    fair is fair

  • standard_and_poor

    Is it still Hispanic Heritage month?
    What the hell, let's set the 'WAY-BACK MACHINE ” back to 1969.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnamP4-M9ko

  • standard_and_poor

    Watch 1072 for adding longs, and 1015 to add shorts.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Prechter interview is here. A lot of the usual stuff tbh.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3

    Its in the editors video picks.

  • mattco

    People know that we will default on our debt and that the ponzi scheme (stock market) will collapse one day soon. Also, the dollar was down. :-)

  • standard_and_poor

    Gudday Mate.

  • Meshugga

    MIssed most of the action today but sure seemed like a slamdunk easy day to read to my ignorant eye…..
    SPY retraced EXACTLY 38.2% of the move from 108.06 (9/17 high) to 101.99 (10/2 low) which was 104.31 (todays high was 104.32).
    I thought initially this would all happen friday, took a little longer but still easy to read.
    So where to from here? Frankly I dont have a clue. how you get confirmation of P3 until market dips below 990 i sbeyond me ( lot of 'if 1019 breaks its party time' calls) but EW is so subjective that i dont really care.
    All i care about is the trend. And its still pointing up unfortunately. Holding my breath and my SPY calls.
    Most sense would be down in the am with an afternoon ramp job. Screws with everyone and keeps the uncertainty going.
    SPX 1057 is where it gets really interesting.

  • jacksoo

    g'day S&P – –

  • standard_and_poor

    5% short from 1070 and 1044. I never declare to be neither bear nor bull just a chicken who likes to let profits run and pecks losses.

  • Huggybear

    Not only is Cramer a douchebag, he's also a self-confessed fraudster and market manipulator:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRa0B34jMOQ

    He also is allegedly in the middle of the manipulation of Dendreon recently and often talked down and misrepresented DRDN on his show over the last year:
    http://www.deepcapture.com/dendreons-cancer-res

    It is completely unconscionable that CNBC has not fired this fraud.

  • molecool

    Thanks Corporal – sir!

  • vardoger

    Huh? Free-speech no more?

  • molecool

    Gold bugs are buying? 😉

  • molecool

    That's usually my standard answer.

  • molecool

    Great – just what we need – more regulation on us bloggers after the MSM has completely whored itself out to multi-national corporations.

  • molecool

    LOL

  • molecool

    Let's keep the chitchat to a minimum though folks – otherwise I'll pull it again.

  • molecool

    We are up!

  • molecool

    The cash bribe you sent me helped a lot.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Bob never did get to put up his last chart at the end. :(

  • molecool

    That's a whole new approach to trading – interesting system.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    MOle you around?

  • bergs

    Thanks Alpha.

    would welcome that scenario.

    Also the Ewi boys warned about reproducing or incorporating their counts in blogs in today's short term update. That may be it for most of my posting. As I have stated in the past I'm heavily influenced by their work. I just liked filling in the shorter counts to try and get some sort of skill level built up. I have never intended to create a blog or service. They would hang me for losing their money.lol

    Do enjoy your work and great call on that ending triangle today.

  • molecool

    You just gave me an idea – more later.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Bergs, Mole check this out, how about a leading diagonal for minute [i]

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • molecool

    Popping in/out – what's up?

  • molecool

    Three is longer than two or one – diagonal very unlikely. For the record – this pattern is rare and fledgling EWT students seem to want to slap it on every chart – LOL :-)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i take it they're still believing in P3

  • mmTesla

    The bullish case.
    I have an ambush long drawn from the head of the failed head and shoulder pattern to the recent highs of the year. Also there is a candlestick reversal on the daily at that price level which would suggest a confirmation in the move.

    http://screencast.com/t/rgznd9UT

    Also there is an ambush short drawn from the 2007 highs to the march lows. The 50% retracement is at 1125, and the target for the ambush long is 1107. Right now we have nice short term resistance at 1054 on the weekly person’s pivot, I expect a retracement off those levels into consolidation before we break higher. Also we have the enourmous inverted head and shoulders pattern whose target I believe is in the 1200’s.

    http://screencast.com/t/tZoMEAi8p

    However I view a break of 1003 with significant volume a confirmation of an intermediate down move to 950-970 range possibly diving lower if more key levels are violated. I ultimately still believe that Christmas sales are key to actually bringing down this market as well as the end of Quantitative easing.

    The bearish case.
    There is a bearish wedge that we have broken out of and a retracement up to 1050’s would be a nice retest and healthy for the bearish position to load up and ride the down wave. Furthermore there is a lot of resistance overhead such as the person’s weekly pivot, which leaves little upside (assuming the intermediate top is in) Beware of a short squeeze like there was at the neck line of the head and shoulders.

    http://screencast.com/t/Gd5iYksM2

    And an ambush short from the highs of the year to the recent lows with a 61.8% at 1052’s which would invalidate the bearish ambush.

    I firmly believe a heathy test of 1050’s is good for bearish and bullish cases and I think very likely imho.

    Just my 2 cents :-)

  • innatedc

    Don't we want the TV idiots talking it up so we can be the contrarians and not the majority holding the bag?

  • upld2

    Or how about Oil is about to go off the dollar standard?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • upld2

    The US public debt to GDP ratio is still among the lowest in the West.

  • jacksoo

    Thx david

  • Tronacate

    Gold……prechter sees lower……McHugh sees big H&S with big upside…..If the dollar gets any lower, gold will be going to venus…….I keep thinking the buck has bottomed……..but sure is taking it's jolly time.

  • Joe8888

    Found an Interesting Channel,on the 60 min VIX…..HITTING LOWER CHANNEL

  • Tronacate

    I was so loaded up short ……I reduced my winning positions and took alot of profit……..I'm not watching a good gain go bye bye right now…..too many possibilities.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bears, pay attention… What about this doesn't seem bullish?

    1) Trend line still intact
    2) Higher lows
    3) Higher Highs
    4) Very nice daily reversal candle with confirmation at trendline.

    Ignore this at your own peril, I will not go short until something has materially changed.

    Long Spy Calls, Long Silver Calls.

  • vision_invisible

    Unprecedented honesty here. Keep this in mind if the propoganda machine and Hilary starts yapping.

    [ line from that site:
    Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.
    ]

  • Tronacate

    Hmmmm……..maybe my low oil price forcing mideast instability will not come to pass…..might be pre-empted by a strike on Iran.

    Sad, Saudi's are the biggest exporters of radical Wahhabism…….first generation goat herders and wife beaters come into a pile of cash…..talk about lipstick on a pig……..and to think Bush kissed that sucker…..ick

  • bergs

    I had to go look at the book. Mole is correct, it is a rare pattern. In fact a lot of people thought that was the big picture going into this top. So probably not, but I will keep an eye on that possibility.

    Yet, if this is the start of P3 we will probably see some rare patterns occurr. We have already witnessed a running flat for wave two.

  • ckeltner

    Anyone see Fa_Q recently?

  • ckeltner

    BTW, if you want to see a nice chart pull up the daily IYR. Put on the 20/50 EMA. IYR cracked down through the 20, bounced at the 50 and today backtested the 20 breakdown. Its a great looking chart in my opinion and I see several other similar charts. I think this was reflective of all the action today and I do not think its very bullish at all. The SPY also bounced off the 20 ema backtest.

    Unless the bulls gap this up tomorrow and reclaim the 20 with a close above I don't know how this can be viewed as bullish. If it fails we are going back down to test the 50 and will bounce between the two until one is broken with a close above/below.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Higher lows on what time frame? Daily, we have lower lows and lower highs, and a turn down tomorrow would add another in the series of lower highs.

    Now, I am not saying we can't go higher, and also not saying there are not of bullish indications out there. That said, I am treading quite lightly, but maintaining my bearish stance until proven otherwise. Considering proving otherwise right now is only a few points (as “I” have it counted) in trading hours /ES, it is a very low-risk play.

    Lastly, I am assuming you are one of the silly folk that does not believe that a semi-log scale would be required when A) we got a move of 400 points, and B) that 400 point move translates into a gain of more that 50%. If you need a semi-log scale on a decline of 50% (which you do), then you need it on a rally. Just MHO.

    Skål!

  • harveydent

    so here's a random thought…
    remember how everyone was so sure the market should have dropped but instead rallied since July and did an IHS. Tricked some/lots of people.
    Well…lot of people here are expecting the highs are in already and loaded up on shorts.
    We could get tricked again, no?
    Just throwing it out there. I dont like this market, so unpredictable.
    Anyway, back to doing my hw. No not like charts type hw, like actual hw for class :/

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Good idea, but I concur with Mole. As with the expanding diagonal, so few instances of this actually occur, that it almost shouldn't be mentioned in the book. Now, granted, these are “strange days,” but I would see that much better as a series of 1s and 2s. We will know VERY early tomorrow.

    But good looking out. Always love your analysis mate.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Berk….how goes it?

  • Tronacate

    There goes $DXY……76.58

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Berk, Silly Folk I am. Last week I was all about being bearish. It seems to me that all the trendlines held and we are going higher. When the 20 & 50 SMA's cross on the $TRIN cross on the 60 I will go Bearish. I will be really Bearish when the EUR/$ finally breaks the trendline and the mother of all short covering rallies begins. (The Crash everyone is waiting for). But until then I am NOT fighting this tape. I don't have a $1 billion hedge fund and unwinding my trades can be done in minutes.

  • Tronacate

    NQ not responding all that favorably to the dollar getting hammered at the moment……maybe we have a little disconnect here

  • Tronacate

    76.53……..wtf is going on with our currency?……you'd think there would be some relief wih manufacturing up……pulling back on stimulus……anybody have any ideas?

  • mattco

    At some point a weak dollar becomes bearish on the stock market. At what exact point? I have no idea. But if DXY falls below 74 it will kill the stock indexes IMO.

  • neophyte

    Evening folks,

    Here is something that caught my eye. Sure some of you may have seen this. Just in case. Inv H&S on the 60 min es. Head @1112, NEckline @ around 1027.25 and target of approx 1042 or 1043 by my calcs. Perhaps it may be higher. Anyways, thought I would put it out and get some experts to weigh in.

    Thanks.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/neophyte/folder

  • Tronacate

    That's what I'm thinking……but december oil isn't rocketing skyward right now either…….guess they've figured out the US economy is the engine of the world

  • mattco

    Right now shorting the dollar is a very one sided trade. And with our government enjoying the boost to corporate earnings that the dollar provides and the stock market boost they will not step in.

  • Tronacate

    China and Japan have to be crappin bricks with all their dollars

  • mattco

    Maybe that is why Gold is holding over 1000. Why own useless paper when you can hold a useless gold metal that holds better value?

  • ACJ

    Is this lester?

  • Tronacate

    I'd sure as hell hate to be relying on American tourism overseas with this exchange rate…..

  • Tronacate

    Gold rates right up there with diamonds as something worthless when you're hungry…..

  • Tronacate

    On the NQ I see a broken trendline and a backtest also……

  • mattco

    Yeah, but what a story to tell your buddies… “dude, I actually shit a gold bar last night!” lol

  • neophyte

    The talk of a “strong dollar” is in my opinion only lip service. It is in fact a conscious decision by the powers that be to let the dollar fall. Their only plan is to “hope” that a low dollar would spur exports, inflate commodities and the stock market therefore hoping to repair part of the raping that Americans have witnessed of their personal balance sheets. They realize, that housing is a lost cause an “hope” that by inflating the investment accounts, the American consumer will bounce back. What will be a spoke in their wheel is the market reacting adversely and killing the dollar thereby sending shockwaves through the system.

    Unfortunately, the consumer is not coming back any time soon so IMO, any hope of the consumer leading us out of this mess is a mirage! Given that the consumer will not participate, high commodity prices will only exacerbate the problem as even if the consumer were in a position to kick start the process, the worthless dollar and high commodity prices would be a deterrent. A vicious cycle. Catch 22! If the hope is to create inflation, surely their efforts thus far have not been successful. Look beneath the numbers that are touted as “green shoots” there are clear signs of deflation and not just in the USA. This is further corroborated by the fact that t-bills are yielding close to zero and the rally in the 30 yr bonds last week is another example. Any hope of inflation is a long ways away and you need look no further than the velocity of money. The banks are hoarding cash (somewhere in the region of 850 bill) there is no lending and credit is being closed at alarming rates. In all of this Gold/ Silver will do well but only when the market decides. Unfortunately, with Gold it is best to be opportunistic as you cannot fight the central banks and the big boys who play on their behalf. It is a double edged sword. There will probably be a time down the road or if there is a sudden crash in the dollar where gold will go ballistic.

    I could write a lot more but I am “challenged” and my ADD does not permit me write in a well thought out manner. My 2C

  • PRSGuitars

    Decent commentary from a buddy of mine @ MS (just his casual assessment):

    “Iraq's oil reserves weren't available pre-2003 and Iran is a net importer of petroleum — unsure I'm worried about the 'fractal' nature of this, if you will”

  • Osso

    Head 1012….maybe …instead of 1112….

  • neophyte

    Oops sorry! typo.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems that the folks at EWI are talking about bloggers stealing there stuff…

    http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

    Welcome to real time blogging. It's not like the 80's……

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    I'm posting my generalized commentary on various forums for those who might be following.

    I did not open any short positions today after closing up shop on Friday morning. Nor did I trade the long side (regretably). The market is pushing back towards the broken trendline and is likely to touch the 20 MA as well as backtest the trendline. This means I expect to see a SPY print of 104.5 or higher in the coming days and more than likely a 105 print.

    I would like to open 1/2 positions of what I intend to invest, which as those who know me have read, is only 50% of my book, tomorrow on strength, ideally above 104.5. Note that this would only be 1/2 positions, not full. If you are interested, I would like to pick up a 1/2 position in FAZ, Nov SPY 101 puts and Dec SPY 95 puts.

    The game plan is as follows. Open 1/2 positions tomorrow on strength. If Wednesday looks weak and has the appearance of a distribution day, open the remaining 1/2 at the open. If not, wait till the close to open the remaining 1/2. If Wednesday turns out to be strong, I would expect the heavier selling to occur either on Thursday or during OPEX, but any entry at these levels or higher is okay for the long term. I care very little about short-term draw down or intraday movements.

  • vision_invisible

    I wasn't sure what you were saying, but sure I wasn't off track. Looked into it.

    Iraq had sanctions so wasn't a big exporter. However, since the late 90's the UN allowed them to increasingly sell in a “oil for food” programme. In 2002, Iraq made up 8% of US imports.

    Iran relies on oil exports for 50% of its income. However, it can't refine the oil so must import gasoline,it imports 50% of the gas it uses. Iran supplies China with 15% of its oil http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/30/news/internatio… The Chinese and Iranians were the first to push the dollar aside.

    Would you trade oil in US dollars, when the banker who created them is a cheater and prints up a storm?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like the folks at EWI are not happy with bloggers…..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    You can read my post at kenny's site in response to it.

  • malusDiaz

    Aye Sure seems like a critical junction, as in tomorrow:

    Averages Breaking Down:
    http://screencast.com/t/0T6kqVEpkis

    Close-up Crosses:
    http://screencast.com/t/PixEwl5L

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We had a fairly large disconnect earlier in the day, when the 10:30 highs got breached by most of the low-beta indexes ($DWC, $INDU, $SPX) while the typical high-betas ($NDX, $TRAN, $COMPQ) lagged the rally, even failing to put in a new high until the final bull rally, and then only marginally (a point and change on $NDX and about 3 points on $COMPQ). The $TRAN caught a bid at the end of the day, but it kinda makes you think for a minute when the high-beta's start to lag. Fractured market at the least, and that suggests that the standard correlations we have been seeing (or at least used to “working”) are likely to start unraveling.

    Skål!

  • EDC

    lower dollar and corporate earnings… people are happy with that?

    if we have a negative net export computation of our GDP and consumer spending is 70% of our economy.
    can someone please explain how a cheap dollar helps that out?
    once we become net exporters instead of importers we will have a surplus of dollars… what happens then?
    hmm…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    May I ask layman question? Does EW have wave count for milliseconds?
    I am old and slow, so hourly is good enough for my tired eyes
    here is is and it has been on track since 9/23 when it printed 5
    completed A on Friday, in B now, can go as high as 1055 – I'll be just happy to enter shorts at that price – and wave still going to be intact.

    http://screencast.com/t/hH50VPLUh

    Speaking of NDX – you got that right – on daily it has completed 5 (as oppose to 3 of UP or C of down in progress on SPX) due to putting first bottom fall 2008, of course there will be disconnect.

    Thou I am still open to possibility of C of daily down going as high as 1113

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Seriously… tough shit folks. For the people that DIRECTLY copy and paste their charts (and then only without their consent), I get it. Contact the offenders directly. But for all of us capable of having our own thoughts, especially while using the same or similar tools, are likely to eventually draw the same conclusions (at the LEAST).

    WTFE. Sorry EWI, I love y'all, but seriously… You post 3 days a week, I post 3 times a minute. 😛

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you know the answer – right?

    “People are fucking stupid”
    George Carlin

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hey we got the best crew …Folks here …Kenny and Dan's site.. It called a MAster Mind. For people who don't under stand this read “THINK AND GROW RICH”.

  • molecool

    Exactly – here we are counting all day and those guys point fingers at US? When I frankly post what in the end becomes their count later in the afternoon when they post their STU?

    They better not refer to us or I'll be very disappointed and I'm sure a lot of folks here will pull their subscription.

  • molecool

    So THAT'S where everyone went – I was wondering why traffic has died over here.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Running flat for wave 2 is certainly not uncommon. What is uncommon however, (to my knowledge) is the expanded flat in the A wave of a running flat, where the c wave of that move was more that 161.8% of the a wave of A (if you follow). That is to say, that we had huge upward momentum (c wave of expanded flat) followed immediately by stronger downside (the lower low associated with the B wave of said running flat). I suppose if P3 really is starting, we could be seeing such huge swings of accumulation and distribution, but IMHO the length of the expansion in the expanded flat is kinda diametrically opposed to the running flat's whole basis.

    Now, I have said many a time that once P3 has begun, and especially during I3 of P3, we will be seeing a number of running corrections, as the downward momentum should be something unseen in nearly a century. Of course, this is just my thought, but I have been speculating upon it since we started P1.

    I concur about seeing rare patterns, however, should P3 be starting, a leading diagonal would not be a good sign of momentum… IMO. Not that I can construct the market with moves of my choosing (that sure would be nice), but that would not be the preference.

    Skål!

  • Joe8888

    It's this Simple..

    This Compq Chart – Has to roll over,,, A doji on Tuesday is good,then we have to fall, as long as the Compq,
    doesn't regain the Channel,,if they do,( regain ),,Well then,Bears have to wait,,cause we are going higher,,imo

  • Bart7

    I assume you've seen this, but in case not;
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news
    The demise of the dollar
    In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading
    Tuesday, 6 October 2009
    In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
    Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.
    The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Like they (dan and kenny) said, I hardly think they would be too mad at the people that have links to their material on the side of their blog, and mention/suggest their products/services.

    But then again, this IS a bear market.

    Skål!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've been asked by a friend who has a job how to allocate her 401K “cage of doom.” I said, “The single best move is out of any and all funds that include stocks in the mix.” That excluded everything but a money market fund and a Washington State bond fund. I said, “Bonds have better yields. Let me find out which would be safer in the event of another financial crisis.”

    Any advice for me to pass on to her?

  • molecool

    I think we EWT bloggers implicitly drive a lot of traffic their way. If they decide to fight us I will sever all links with EWI and make sure that a large group on this blog follows that example.

    Like Kenny said – if our counts are similar at times then it's obviously because good Elliotticians recognize a limited set of possibilities and that is what we propose to our readers. And like I said above – I regularly see Steven H. replicate my count hours after I posted them. So there you have it – I don't complain – I'm happy that another Elliottician agrees with my count.

  • lilme

    Salty hope for the bears from a bear, Tony Jackson, FT

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13373ae4-b15a-11de-b0

  • BaldEagle

    Dude it's a bull market. Haven't you heard? Dow 30,000..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole you have a great blog . I come here first….You have great talents….Never forget that..

  • raised_by_wolves

    Unfortunately, that's what my brother's been saying. He's a finance major and won't listen to me, the uneducated dropout.

  • bergs

    Thanks for replying Berk
    I did change back to the running flat for all of wave two.

  • EDC

    “People are fucking stupid”
    George Carlin

    good answer!

  • molecool

    Well, in case that's any solace – if you wind up being right you get to rub it in for the rest of your life 😉

  • molecool

    Not liking what I'm seeing right now – based on that we bears are screwed tomorrow.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet
  • Tronacate

    Demise of the dollar does not necessarily mean gold is going to explode either. Everything can go down together. Devaluation of the currency might still be outpaced by debt destruction which bodes poorly for all asset classes. All the gold hype makes me think it will ultimately go down.

  • bergs

    Ticker
    Would appreciate any heads up on symptoms and any treatments you received.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://tradingtrophies.blogspot.com/ the99th

    Come on Mole, you ever see El Topo? The mole burrows and burrows until he is finally blinded.

    I've been feeling like El Topo today. I lost my cool earlier and overtrade, ended up smoking 20% of my account equity, this was after having made 8% last week and having 10% on the table sunday night. This evening I'm feeling back to the Tao, I faded the AUD interest rate rise and I have a feeling everything's going to be coming up Milhouse. Given that only the NZD made new highs and the wave count suggests that B of 5 of C of B is in the works right now, we might just cancel out this evening loss in the dollar (and correlated equity effects) by the open. It's happened before, like remember a couple of weeks ago when the FOMC made an announcement?

    Bet on the insanity, read the tape, make love to the current.

  • standard_and_poor

    Yes and you are my court jester,clown.

     
     

    ________________________________

  • molecool

    Don't know if anyone noticed but ….

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    It began with puking, puking and diarrhea. I thought I ate something bad and became weak in one day. It sucked all my energy by then but then came the worst part of aches, cold and cough.

    Apparently, this being the sore throat season, I was secondarily infected by pneumonia. I was admitted to the hospital for 2 days. For H1N1, they gave me tamiflu and then antibiotics for pneumonia.

    I am at home now but don't really have the energy. I hope this helps. Before getting infected, I was hoping to get it and be over with, just so that I won't have any fear. But, this really sucks.

  • bergs

    Thanks for the reply, wishing you a speedy recovery.

    ————————————————–

  • bergs

    Thanks for the reply, wishing you a speedy recovery.

    ————————————————–