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Managing Expectations
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Managing Expectations

by The MoleMarch 22, 2017

I would love to tell you that I have returned from a relaxing two week vacation on an island paradise but then I would be lying. Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong during this trip in fact did go wrong. At times it felt like we should have changed our last names to Murphy. Does that mean we didn’t have a great time? Of course not! Because as with everything in life, and particularly when it comes to trading, the path to success lies in managing your expectation and your actions.

Now that I’ve stimulated your curiosity (old sales trick) I may as well share some of the sordid details of our Tenerife train wreck. We arrived late on the 8th at around 1:00am and then drove up towards Vilaflor where we had rented an airbnb property which was advertised as a ‘beautiful relaxing forest villa’. And at first sight that’s exactly what we seemed to be getting. During the check-in I tested the Internet and lo and behold it was actually working, making it one major concern being crossed off the list. Exhausted we went straight to bed ready to enjoy some much needed quiet time for the next 10 days.

Forest Villa From Hell

When we woke up we quickly realized however that the veranda of the villa was facing what later turned out to be a large bottling plant which was emitting an constant hum generated by industrial size air conditioning units mounted to its roof. It completely drowned out the chirping of the birds and the rustling of the wind in the pine trees surrounding us. We immediately notified our host via whatsapp who told us that it was probably due to the hot weather and that this was the first time he had heard about this. Suffice to say of course that the words ‘bottling plant’ or ‘industrial A/C unit’ had not been part of the airbnb listing.

Curiously however none of the reviews in the listing ever mentioned noise as a problem either. Which was a bit of a puzzler for both me and my wife. We live in the center of Valencia which is probably one of the noisiest cities in the second noisiest country on earth (only beaten by Japan). So a slight humming would have been forgivable but what we had to endure for the remainder of our time there was most definitely smack middle in the ‘vacation ruining’ category.

You Are Being Watched

The second bad surprise happened shortly after when I realized that all the hallways of the house had been plastered with video cameras. This really shocked me a little as I would never have expected this in an airbnb rental. You’d put up with external cameras to some extent but who wants to potentially be filmed running around naked in your house during vacation?

you_are_being_watched

We actually wound up putting tape on top of the lenses but could never really shake the feeling that we somehow may be watched or recorded. After all cameras are tiny these days and a host who doesn’t think twice about putting up large cameras may just feel entitled to sneak in a few into your bedroom or bathroom as well.

One thinks that all this would be more than sufficient ground for cancellation, however due to our late check-in time we waited until later in the afternoon to file a complaint with airbnb. And that put us beyond the initial 24 hour period for reimbursements. Not that it would have really helped us as the entire island was booked out and the only remaining rentals were undesirable to put it kindly. I did file a claim with airbnb which is still being reviewed but I very much doubt I will see much if any of my money back. And quite frankly it’s not really about the money – it’s about being lied to and cheated out of what was supposed to be a quiet vacation in a forest paradise.

The Beauty Of Tenerife

We could have let this ruin our vacation but in the end we decided to simply travel around the island as much as possible and explore many of the micro climates Tenerife has to offer. A few snapshots for you nature lovers:

IMG_1620

This is a panorama shot I took while we were hiking through the center of the volcanic crater of El Teide. It really looks like we’re on the moon but there are signs of wildlife all over the place.

IMG_1514

A different perspective taken from higher up. You can actually see the edges of the old crater further in the distance. The air is incredibly pure and when I saw some tourist stand there with a cigarette in his mouth I felt compelled to walk over and give him a swift kick in his family jewels.

IMG_1630

Here’s a view taken at about 5,500 feet (1500 meters) around sunset as we were descending from the high plateau of the volcano. It’s a lot more breathtaking when you actually see it flow into the mountainside.

IMG_1593

A similar view taken a day earlier. As you can see there was quite a bit of cloud cover down below but as soon as you ascended to over approximately 4,500 feet you were greeted by blue skies. In Tenerife it’s always sunny somewhere they say, if you’re mobile you can pick your weather.

IMG_1490

Near our village things were of course a bit more temperate. My wife took this shot near the villa where we stayed the first ten days.

IMG_1866

Just a few kilometers over to the West and you are at Masca which has its own unique majestic beauty. Which I am not showing here (you can find a ton of great shots on Google) – instead here’s a snapshot of a surprise rainbow which presented itself on our last day before we left. A magical moment indeed.

By the way I actually did the canyon hike in Masca up and down and it almost killed me. On the way up my legs were literally giving out on me as I was severely dehydrated despite having brought along 1.5 liters of water. Fortunately some young German kid strolled by and offered me some of his otherwise I may have just dropped off some cliff. Well, not the worst place to die if you ask me.

But Wait There’s More

After our initial ten days I was supposed to be training with some Ukrainian Systema expert in Los Gigantes. In order to be nearby and to safe myself a lot of driving we had decided to rent an apartment in one of those typical anthill complexes near the coast. Now once again we checked in and everything seemed fine until we started to hear loud construction noise coming from the beach.

There’s a reason why I choose the silly beach shot as the featured image of this post. May look just fine at first sight but if you look a bit closer…

beach_zoom

Yes, that’s right there’s currently a major construction project right in front of the local beach and it just so happens to be facing our balcony as well. Oh joy… but in this case not something I would bother airbnb with as the timing of major construction projects clearly is outside the control of the host.

sunset_volcanic

Just a 200 meters down however we took this snapshot during sunset during the weekend. I actually took a few dozen shots of the scene as I felt like I was on some surreal Star Trek set.

The Guru

When I showed up at training the first day I immediately had a bad feeling about this supposed Systema master. It’s not that he wasn’t experienced as I had technically vetted him beforehand, but I quickly got an impression that he was suffering from a what I call a ‘guru complex’, which is something I have unfortunately come across several times in over 25 years of studying various types of martial arts. He put me through an extended questionnaire of what my life goals were and then engaged in some strange psycho-analysis which really rubbed me the wrong way. I shot back a few times that I was there for hands on training, but it quickly became clear that the guy had found enlightenment and wasn’t shy of berating anyone who didn’t see things his way. To make a long story short, on the second day I basically told him that he was full of shit, that he was wasting my time, and that it wouldn’t work out, then I simply walked away. I really should have not paid that guy in advance, but my time and mental equilibrium are more valuable than anything else.

It’s Not All Bad

We actually had a bit of luck as well as we forgot to reserve a spot on the gondola leading up to the 12,000 feet peak of El Teide. And would you believe it, the darn thing got stuck due to high winds and they had to extract the passengers with a helicopter after being stuck there for hours on end. When we drove by on our way back from a hike that very day we saw a bunch of emergency vehicles, local police, ambulances, etc. and the access to the cable car was blocked off. My wife would have probably eaten everyone on board, so I guess we all got away easy.

Lessons Learned

The lessons we learned on this trip (once again): First up you really never know what to expect no matter how well in advance you plan your trip. People always lie in listings and once you there your options are severely limited. Of course due to the mutual rating system in airbnb you will rarely see a negative review, rendering the entire exercise a complete waste of time. In the future I will simply ask my host some very directed questions in advance in order to establish precedence and hopefully be able to argue a strong case in case things go wrong.

But instead of dwelling on the negative I am glad that we simply focused on the positive and moved on. It’s just like being in a very promising campaign and suddenly Yellen lets off a brainfart and you are instantly deprived of several R of paper profits. That’s trading and most certainly that is an aspect of life as well. You cannot change or prepare for things outside your control, so you just have to roll with them.

Secondly – you are not special. There were many times when we felt we were being treated badly or unjustly during our trip. Due to the influx hundreds of thousands of unruly tourists each year customer service in Tenerife has adjusted itself to a mixed international clientele, much of which often borders the abusive and clueless. So if you look like a tourist then you most certainly will be treated like one, even if you happen to speak Spanish fluently. This is one of the aspects of tourism I hate the most and the reason why I usually choose to stay off the beaten track. People further up in the center of the island were extremely lovely I’m glad to say.

Finally, it’s always great to be back. No matter how amazing your vacation there’s no place like home, your own bed, your own kitchen, your entertainment setup, your garage with your tools, your neighborhood, your gym, and your friends. It’s the little things we all take for granted we should value the most.

Credits

I would be amiss if I did not extend my most sincere thanks to Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips who didn’t just do a bang job filling in during my absence but actually produced such excellent material that apparently everyone was starting to dread my return. Curiously there actually was an increase of new sign-ups during my time away which took me a bit by surprise. Apparently a focus on educational material and in particular systemic trading seems to be valued a lot more than I had anticipated. Which is excellent news as there are literally a myriad of topics we could be covering moving forward as I am not exactly a stranger to that domain.

What Do You Want To See?

So the question I would like to put forward is what exactly you guys would like to see covered here in the future. There’s certainly a lot we could share. Please use the comment section to discuss your thoughts on the topics suggested below:

  • System Trading
    • Theory
    • Backtesting / Forward Testing
    • Asset Classes
    • Mean Reversion and Stationarity
    • Cointegration
    • Trend/Momentum Strategies
    • Campaign Management
    • Volatility
    • Market Cycles
  • Leverage, Position Sizing
    • Scaling In
  • System Programming
    • NinjaTrader Introduction
    • Python Introduction
    • Quantopian Introduction
    • QuantConnect Introduction
  • Hands-on System Building
    • System Ideas & Implementation
    • RAW Edge Parsing
  • Tape Reading

I could go on but this should get you guys started. I would also like you to share which posts you enjoyed the most during my absence. For your convenience I have added Scott’s posts to the ‘popular‘ and ‘system trading‘ category so that you can easily find them in the future.

P.S.: I forgot to mention that I backed my rental car into a wall in our driveway. Fortunately I had purchased full insurance. As the old saying goes: Only the paranoid survive


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AcoBrasil

    Nice travelogue and welcome back. It reminds me a bit of Isabela in the Galapagos. Next time, rent on Booking.com or Expedia well in advance (to ensure a good selection) with a property that has a cancellation clause and good reviews. Increases your safety margin.

  • ridingwaves

    I have had great success with VRBO…
    Mole needs to head to Costa Rica next time for some RNR with pura vida backing it….I will be glad to share some places I rented….jungle or beach….

    I’m heading to Peru (if it stays above el nino water) and Roatan next month…that may be a good time to go short

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think you are completely right – plus you really do not save much anymore with airbnb these days.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That sounds like a great idea. Instead of Peru I may however head to Chile – what do you think?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    By the way – neither. I prefer mountains – my skin is simply too pale for beach sun exposure.

  • AcoBrasil

    VBRO is great, especially for domestic rentals. What are you looking for – beach, mountains, deserts, wildlife….

  • ridingwaves

    the jungle homes were in the mountains, dirt roads opening up to a jungle oasis….no one around…
    https://s27.postimg.org/sjudf0u5f/view_from_the_jungle.jpg

  • AcoBrasil

    Arenal?

  • ridingwaves

    Below Uvita…close to Oso peninsula…the pool and house were sweet, view is looking out to the Whale tail…150KM from Quepos…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow…SH destination, nevertheless.

  • AcoBrasil

    Nice pick. That looks like its off the gringo trail.

  • ridingwaves

    Chile is cooler client-like Pacific NW…
    Peru is beautiful but getting hit hard right now via el nino….
    Roatan different story altogether…

  • Dyellowflash

    Love ur travel post! Mole!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    That accidental water boy, I suspect was your guardian angel.
    Up your charity next time you get a chance.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh yeah, Suuuure.
    😉

    https://vimeo.com/35444312

  • BobbyLow

    Welcome back Mole. :)

  • ridingwaves

    there are some big bugs, had a coral snake glide across our veranda while Toucans and howler monkeys were hanging nearby….

    I will never go to a zoo the rest of my lifetime…better to catch nature in it before it gets butchered by that peaceful fella….man

  • BobbyLow

    I lost my internet connection yesterday afternoon. It appears that I have an unstable modem because after rebooting it a number of times, I finally got it back working this morning. I hope to replace it later this afternoon.

    I have a back up plan in case something like this happens. My normal work space uses a desktop computer and I have a laptop for emergencies that I can take with me to find some working wifi somewhere. HOWEVER, I had failed to update my laptop with my latest charts etc. This would have put unnecessary pressure on me to create my correct charts prior after finding some wifi to seeing if I needed to make a move on my open positions. This is the kind of shit that can lead to expensive mistakes. BTW, I could have made a move using my phone but charting on my phone is extremely limited and really sucks.

    I’m only talking about this because we are all dependent on the Internet and when we lose it, then what?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Happy to be back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mobile (4G) is currently my backup plan as it’s stable and fast enough in Spain to work well enough during outages. I obviously can’t do anything data intensive but it’s quick enough to check into my VMs and remote control them in low res mode.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just my way of easing myself back into the grind 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You have no idea. Mosquitos LOVE me – I’m basically the only one getting bitten. I’d be dead meat in a jungle filled with those little mofos. I should change my diet to something garlic based before I travel.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Those locations are great but you are REALLY off the grid and if something happens with my systems there’s nobody to fix it (Scott can’t possibly be bothered).

    I’ll try Gran Canaria next year perhaps or the Belearic Islands.

  • ridingwaves

    I start 2 weeks prior, garlic on everything….never get bit…
    my wife not so lucky…

  • BobbyLow

    Another problem is that I live in a very rural area so I have to use a Network Extender just to be able to use my cell phone without the threat of a simple phone call being dropped. So if I lose my internet, I also lose my Network Extender and my phone loses internet capability.

  • ridingwaves

    go to Costa Rica….you will find something that works..plenty of grid…
    lots of micro-climates…

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on Long Nutty Gas at +.5R. Ordinarily I would flip to short here but we’re less than 24 Hours before the next storage report so I’ll wait to see what happens tomorrow morning.

    Still Long Silver via USLV and Long Miners va NUGT.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I vote for:
    Tape Reading
    Trend/Momentum Strategies
    Campaign Management
    Backtesting / Fowardtesting

  • Yoda

    I am going to keep my L UNG until after the report tomorrow

  • Mark Shinnick

    …a very strong battle going on right now.

  • Yoda

    closed SDS on retest of the low

  • Dyellowflash

    Same here. Closed 60% US2000 shorts.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…there really has yet to be much of a blow off.

  • Dyellowflash

    yeah, normally… this kind of slough fest, the outcome is either a very strong move or a big expanding triangle to take out both sides & MM wins.

  • OJuice

    I closed shorts yesterday EOD. Now long from ES 2338.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    It could help to have an auto backup/sync routine, where you have an app on the desktop push updates to a.) an external hard drive or b.) the laptop. Many solutions out there for various platforms.

    I use SuperDuper! on the Mac, to have a mirrored hard drive. If the internal drive craps out, I can boot off the external drive and be back in business in minutes. I swap out the external drive with a second drive every so often, so as to keep them both relatively up to date. Updates happen at night when I’m not using the machine. The mirrored HD works better for me than Apple’s native Time Machine, as that takes too long to recover and get back to work. Time Machine is a nice tool for automated incremental backups.

    I also use Folder Synchronizer on another Mac, to keep folders in sync.

    None of these solutions require me to use the cloud, so they will work if I lose internet. My cell service is okay at home, so I can use my phone as an access point if needed. In your case, if the laptop was up to date, you could drive to where the phone has good service, and access the internet via the phone hooked up to your laptop.

    In a real pinch, I still have a USB modem I can plug into the computer and use dial up on my land line. That’s my last resort.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s probably a good move Yoda. It’s just that I don’t have a lot of discretion with my system and when my lens says it’s time, it’s time. This thing might backfill a little and then shoot right back up. If it does, I’ll jump back on it. I have a predesigned level of stops to help remove decision pressure and my entries are implemented the same way.

  • StockTalker

    Watching for another break of /ES 2340, lower prices if that happens.

  • StockTalker

    Short for the next bear move.

  • BobbyLow

    Guess that 5 Million Barrel Build in Crude Supply when only a 1 Million Barrel Build was expected is not enough to bring price down. Of course most of the time the EIA Report doesn’t mean shit anyway but I’m just sayin . . .

    I am sooooooo glad that I’ve “separated” from trading what was a relatively easy trader that is now a “woodchipper”. Besides “there’s many more fish in the sea”. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Cool…untrapped mental capital :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Mole, it was a pleasure to lighten the load for you in your absence :) Next time forget those crappy Euro resorts and come down under to the promised land. Our worst beaches here are way better than the best stuff in Europe.

    My opinion as to what is best for the people here is that your system building chops are what sets you (and me) apart from the rest of the interwebz. It’s also the most difficult aspect of trading, with the least amount of knowledge available in the public domain. And the private knowledge in this area is obscenely expensive.

    After all, you can get 10 different, and equally stupid, opinions about future market direction from the slope virtually every day. I checked Le Fly’s blog the other day, and it appears he’s given up actual trading and uses his blog as a pro-Trump forum to echo chamber his own opinions about how the orange one is busy making things great again. Gayer than a new type of AIDS.

    I recommend an introduction post on creating your first bullshit easy mean reversion stock system, so that people can tinker with it and try different parameters.

    Also a beginner post on quantopian would be very useful. Having played with it for a while now, I really appreciate the community there. For example I read Clenow’s new book recently, someone had already coded his stuff, and Clenow endorsed the code on the thread, and actively comments assisting people improve it. A community spirit of people helping each other actually improve their systems is really inspiring, which is what you ought to be aiming for here.

    I’ll sign off with this, before I vanish again (I have too much work to do to sit around talking all day these days)

    What sets winners apart from losers in this game is four things and four things only.

    1) They have a system
    2) That system has an edge
    3) They trade that system well
    4) They keep proper records and review them

    I see that a good percentage of you are trading with systems now. Fucking A! If you aren’t doing that you will certainly lose money, no exceptions.

    I see a few people here using the weasel words (and you know who you are) “that’s my lens” – which is actually a phrase of mine. But saying “that’s my lens” isn’t an excuse to use shit which isn’t an edge, pretending it’s an edge. Fix that.

    We’ve given you the tools to evaluate whether your systems and the TA you use are a real edge. I encourage everyone to have the courage to really examine their own systems.

    Thanks again for your attention

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Mole, I’d be interested in an example of how to generate the scatter plots Scott was showing. i.e. Formulating the question to seek an answer for, and then plotting and interpreting the data.

    I’m also interested in how to get NinjaTrader to auto recognize and label candles and/or entry and exit criteria.

    You’ve given us quite a list to choose from. I’d love to see some system theory background that was then implemented with a hands on example. Even a null result would be helpful, as it’s the process I’m interested in.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot fas, very tight stops.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks Scott. I appreciate your efforts, and have web archived your posts and the comments to review and use for my own work.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Paranoid or Highly Intuitive and paying attention?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe argues for success in combat.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The scatter plots themselves are actually rather trivial in Excel. The problem I see is that formulating the idea in Excel spreadsheets is a PITA. Maybe there is a way to do it in python over in quantopian – I’ll be delving into this over the coming weeks and will report back on this. But yes, we’ll definitely be talking about RAW edge parsing quite a bit more – scatter plots are just the visualization method.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “Our worst beaches here are way better than the best stuff in Europe.”

    You know if you keep inviting me down there I may just have to take you up on the offer 😉

  • Yoda

    What you trade move much faster than my stuff. One cannot fall asleep at the switch with 3X .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thinking about this a bit more a really good solution would be to use your desktop only as a remoting platform. Set up all your trading apps and systems on a Windows or Linux VM that’s running in the cloud. I’ve actually got four of them running and almost never have any problems. And if things get super screwy and I lose all access I can always drive down to an Internet café and be up and running within seconds.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, this is starting to look like a possible bounce. I’m long here with a stop below the current spike low at 2332.75.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01be9411a64c3e8a765c59948a02aea0d258116979a04e58b7c7868e97412857.png

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Welcome Back, Mole. Thank you very much Mr. Scott. This learning from you added to Mole’s training and the group here has been suberb and right on target in the timing as well for me. I most definitly need to begin creating my own system now that I have finally been able to become a subscriber also. Looking forward to my new adventure and journey right here with this wonderful group of traders. Thanks to everyone here.

  • Tomcat

    Mole,
    Can you turn the “options” you have listed above in a voting and say based on votes go with the top 5 or so…
    Also, one thing that I would really look forward to (for the subscribers’s section) is a running spreadsheet/tracker of the (incl. open/closed) campaigns (incl. losers and not just winners) for the year. Understanding the why is much more important to me that the realized losses/gains.

  • Scott Phillips

    Python has a research environment for doing just this, you put in your stuff, and the universe, it pops up the scatter plot.

    The “lecture series” is very good there
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTucMRYMOyY&feature=youtu.be

  • Scott Phillips
  • StockTalker

    Running stops, 5 min divergent now.

  • Yoda

    Bought small SDS position for 5th wave down

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Yep, you do have to keep an eye on these things. But the good thing is that I can control my R levels with position size. And since I added the three 3X’s to my stable on February 27th my frustration levels have disappeared and my past 3 weeks net results have more than Doubled that of the first 2 Months of 2017. This might just be some kind of fluke but it doesn’t feel like it. However, we’ll see if I feel the same way a month from now and beyond. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be…inadequate upside mojo for my taste….uh…criteria :)

  • OJuice

    Careful, Scott hasn’t left the building yet. He might karate chop you for that kind of language…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside…premature.

  • Yoda

    exactly. blue arrow helped on that.

  • Scott Phillips

    He needs to wash his brain out with bleach.

    If wave theory you believe, stupid you are, broke you will be

  • Yoda

    LOL. Let’s call it exhaustion move down.

  • Scott Phillips

    Its not a LOLing matter, not even a little bit.

    This type of stupidity is a catastrophic deal breaker to your trading prospects. A giant cock waiting to lodge itself deep in your ass.

    Yesterday you referred to a “bear market”

    Today you are referring to 5th waves down.

    What in the actual fuck?

    Are you aware how your brain latches on to retarded bullshit like this? Implicitly you believe that you know what is coming next. Thats the sine qua non of wave theory, you know the future.

    You don’t know the future. I don’t. Mole doesn’t. None of us do, we just have pattern matching circuits in our brains that tell us we do.

    Betting odds, thats all we have, or don’t have. For the last week I’ve been telling people that we are in a trading range. It’s looking like a trading range, behaving like a trading range. It bounced at the bottom of the trading range (just like it should if it were a trading range).

    Tomorrow it might fall, and then it would no longer be a trading range but a downtrend in a long term uptrend. You would have betting odds to the downside. Today you had betting odds to the upside.

  • Yoda

    Yes I believe that wave theory used to work before machines took over the market. It was conceived when humans were trading. When emotions in the market are high, like in a fast moving downtrend, wave theory works fine for me. In a low volatility melt-up, not so much.

  • Scott Phillips

    What I do as well. Works, even if it’s slow

  • Scott Phillips

    You believe wrong. Period.

    It doesn’t work fine for you, or anyone else.

    Don’t feel bad, we all believe stupid shit about markets which isn’t true. Wave theory is just the worst offender in the prison.

  • Yoda

    Chill mate.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Scott Phillips

    See I have a problem with normalising stupidity.

    This isn’t about you, it’s about what is and isn’t acceptable thinking if you want to be profitable.

    Over time, regular participants on this blog are looked upon as trusted people, whose opinions have weight and heft.

    It’s not about you, its about the 1000 people who read this idiocy and think “I might be a little stupid too, everybody’s doing it”.

    Sure we might fall tomorrow (and I have a resting order in the market to get short if we do), but this idea that you, me, or anyone else somehow knows whats next is poison. The idea that a guy who died half a century ago (broke, mind you) somehow had the magic secrets to markets is preposterous beyond belief.

    Look at my most recent “best idea” getting long crude. Even did a post on it, completely wrong! It was such a good idea to me that I thought I’d do a post on it.

    Most of the best traders I know are right about their trades around half the time, a little less, a little more.

    Logically the idea that we have more than vague clues, is really really bad.

  • ZigZag

    Thanks Scott; Welcome back Mole.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, perception precoloration a killer in the constant fog in a constant war never knowing where the enemy actually is.

  • Scott Phillips

    To all the participants here, my virtual door is always open. If you have system building questions send them through. I won’t be around here, but I answer questions on quora.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks! I’m slowly getting settled in.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m not seeing much in terms of content requests. Can you guys please take some time to think about this?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My best trades were completely unspectacular at the onset. Good example my long position in ES which I wound up holding for a month. Read the original post and you’ll realize it was simply based on an inflection point. No way I could have predicted what would transpire.

    We all take ourselves WAY too seriously.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve seen you pop by more and more which really pleases me. What I can promise: a lot of food for thought and hard work. But if you’re serious about being a (profitable) trader then that is the only way. The alternative is to roast in retail purgatory for the remainder of your existence.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The question I have for you guys is whether or not I should continue posting discretionary campaigns at all going forward. It hasn’t escaped my attention that the vast majority here does not seem to follow my discretionary trades. Would you guys rather have me focus on tape reading, market analysis, system building, the Zero, etc?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can you perhaps start to post screen grabs of your ideas? I think you would receive more interest and constructive input (if you’re looking for that).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m just getting warmed up with quantopian and python – doing the very basic intro course right now. It will take a bit of time but I’m a fast learner.

  • Mark Shinnick

    It would be an EZ all-in-1 picture if I got my DOS app converted…must do that.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sounds like a successful vacation Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think he’s just trying to help. He’s much tougher on himself than he’s on others 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    Excellent analogy I’m going to steal it :-)

  • ZigZag

    Frankly, I like all of the ideas, with an emphasis on system building ideas and implementation, plus some of the psychological hurdles – taking trades, not melting down, not getting euphoric, etc.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Welcome back Mole. I found Scott’s posts extremely valuable and very clearly written. Im a scalper so i learned from the two posts regarding tape and candle behavior reading more than the system building stuff. I would prefer more of tape analysis and interpretation of price behavior educational posts like Scott’s. Of course, keep the campaign posts coming as well. Just my two cents!

  • Ladywandering

    Welcome back. Mean revision, ninja trading intro, scaling in
    Scott’s posts were great

  • Ladywandering

    I follow some of your discretionary trades, have for years

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its important to be briefed on your setups, especially new ones I find are sometimes closely correlated with my own inflection points. Zero inflections are valuable too. Briefs about your intraday trades are important.

  • Dyellowflash

    Longs, beware. Macd failed to turn over twice during Asia session. If nothing positive comes out of it from either price or macd during EU morning hrs, sellers might return when US opens. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e6c9663e4ef0df54545a62cc9dde597110c259590f7ee14e9279a6b55c5fc66.png

  • TerpFan

    Mole,

    I’m a sub, and would like to see, as Scott said, start out with a system we can all tweak. I come here for the Zero, as I “try” and trade the Emini. Perhaps we can start with something rule based that uses the Zero?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, I will definitely add more tape reading information going forward – glad to see it is so well received.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, you’re sure intend on keeping me busy! Thanks for your input.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not a bad idea. The only problem is that YOU guys have no way of parsing the data unless I release it into the public domain. But I’m sure we can come up with other MR rules that we can analyze and test in the open.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mean reversion is a juicy topic with quite a bit of depth to it. Will thin about how to approach this in the proper way without just resorting to posting dry rhetoric (as is common in most pertinent lecture).

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – just like yesterday I’m running an hour behind. Sorry folks – stand by, it’ll be worth the wait.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I rarely have seen the Asian session to have any predictive value. Alright here’s some homework for you. Can you produce a spreadsheet that actually tracks the MACD on your favorite time period and its performance one daily candle later? I know this may be complex as you are using a 2000T chart. Have you done one of the exercises that Scott gave you a few posts back? In particular the scatter chart analysis?

  • Ronebadger

    It’s ALWAYS worth the wait…

  • AcoBrasil

    Tape Reading

    Backtesting / Forward Testing

    Campaign Management

    Asset Classes
    System Building

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, us veterans know that
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went short miners, objective reached so looking to cover around here for time being.

  • BobbyLow

    Probably a good move. I got stopped at BE on NUGT this AM and am on sidelines until Monday on the Miners.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ZigZag

    What about Excel Online with OneDrive, where you can share the spreadsheet with designated emails?