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Express Sunday Chart Roll Call
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Express Sunday Chart Roll Call

by The MoleMarch 11, 2012

It’s the shortest Sunday of the year, and it didn’t help that I fell out of bed late today. So please forgive me if I’m going to be very brief and just run you through the essentials. Hey, on a different note – why do they have to stiff us with a short day during the weekend? If those crack smoking farm boys want to shift around the time zones then let’s bloody do it during a work day – especially in spring. I’m sure you blue collar rats would agree ūüėČ

Judging by our E-Mini volume profile last week’s whipsaw was inside what I would call the ‘play zone’. Below and above we are dealing with a dearth of¬†available¬†volume and in particular directional confidence. The bears and bulls are equally frustrated – for different reasons as the latter couldn’t get laid in a women’s prison holding a fistful of pardons and the latter are being pulled to the floor by the size of their own balls.

Here’s Mr. VIX dropping back into record low territory – we almost crossed the entire BB in four days. Maybe the shake out from hell but there’s not much space to run unless we are heading below the magic 15 mark. This is where we’re heading? Really? ¬†Forgive me for being skeptical and I have seen things you people couldnt believe, battleships burning on the shores of orion, c-beams glittering in the darkness of the tenhausen gates…

Alright, I just popped my meds and are ready to share a few more goodies with my subs – not a boatload but I think you are going to really really like what I dug up. Please step into my freshly mined lair:

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The simple stuff first – here’s copper still painting a divergence on a long term basis. We’re keeping an eye on this one.

MMMR – until we breach above 1378.04 I am going to be very skeptical about the long side here. Yes, it’s possible we drop the signal and run higher for a little longer – we don’t have a crystal ball after all.

To give my stainless steel rats a bit more context I put together a weekly MMMR. And I don’t know about those odds on the long side. Last week was a nice shake out but I think you’d agree that we’re right back to where started and holding long here seems risky.

I have usually plotted this ratio against the SPX in the past. Until I realized today that I have been only half right about that treasury yield ratio. It’s actually a much more interesting measure against the TBT or TLT (the latter is shown in blue on the chart). As the ratio is now nearing the upper channel I am very keen to see what happens next. And here we were waiting for bonds to fall into the abyss while we played the sideways tape. Maybe we’ve had it all wrong. Anyway, we’ll know shortly – either the ratio breaches the channel or it turns and we may just see a spike on the TLT.

This chart is courtesy of Sentimentrader ¬†– donated by thepercolator, a deliciously evil new member of our rat pack. I also looked at the Yen vs. the SPX and yes, there is a major drop in the past few weeks. So we may just have ourselves a nice short setup here but if we pop across last week’s highs then all of this is going to be meaningless.

Bottom Line: I am going to make this very simple for you all. We do have a short setup here after last week’s snapback which shook out all the hobby bears. Who really wants to be short here? Exactly! Which is why this just may be the time to be short. However, price is king my little ratlings – so don’t be a hero. We’ll wait for inside candle or perhaps a retest variation sell setup. Don’t be a hero and let price direct your actions – in case you haven’t figured it out yet, it does not work the other way around ūüėČ

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Wvix remained in tight range mid 2003 to mid 2008 during bullous market?

  • http://twitter.com/JamesPhenom James Worth

    Such bullshit, we will see 1300 this week on SPX. BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Maybe I’m talking bullshit but based on what you told us about your trading history I suggest you to be careful about the prediction racket.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Japanese FinMin is talking intervention to control volatility of Yen. Of course, he won’t say what the rate should be. “. . . will take decisive steps,” he said. When will they learn, Mole?

  • Anonymous

    Mole, great post as usually though it’s a myth that daylight savings time is all about farmers – they’re actually the most vocal opponents, it’s retailers who support DST http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4172.¬†

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..just sitting here watchin the /ES tick by tick.

    here’s a blast from past chart 11 months ago.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/mt5pw9.png

  • http://twitter.com/JamesPhenom James Worth

    not your post Mole. was referring to the market. i appreciate your posts. frustrated that the indices are higher, while internals are getting hammered to some degree.

  • Anonymous

    In Canada, the Province of Saskatchewan (used to be mostly farmers) has long been the sole hold-out against daylight savings time. ¬†Farmers didn’t want it and they refused to go along. ¬†

  • Anonymous

    FYI – May OJ has Triple Inside Days.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t get frustrated. The fact that you are means that you are emotionally tied to the market.¬†

    Mushin – no mind.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very nice! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Taking intervention to control ‘volatility’? They are causing volatility by manipulating their currency through devaluation. We live in a time when each country competes with each other to have the weakest fiat currency – which is what we mortals are forced to accept as a store of value. The game is incredibly one sided and rigged and it is designed to gradually but steadily impoverish the working class.¬†

    The problem is that the majority of people do not understand the concept of fiat currency as they have been systematically dumbed down over decades (not that they were that smart to begin with).

    We can not save them – and there will be no final justice, do not fool yourself. This game has been going on long before we all were born and it will continue long after we are all have turned to dust. The best we humble rats can hope for is to lift ourselves above the inexorable fate of the average. Knowledge and diligence gives us the the opportunity to make a better life for ourselves and to not end up as debt slaves to a global ruling class.

  • Anonymous

     Amen, brother!

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com Deej

    Nicely put

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com Deej

    I think this intervention will not work either. I am long yen across all major pairs heavily..

  • Anonymous

    MUaH MUah. Sometimes I like it when you talk dirty!!

  • Anonymous

    Thanks to this beloved forum I gathered enough evidence to support my decision to short the AUD/JPY and ran it for a nice 50 pips. I have another one waiting below.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com Deej

    Aud/Jpy is on its way to 82.

  • Anonymous

    maybe, I’m still very cautious about this pair. The BOJ/MOF may keep the pressure on. I’m still keeping more weight in the AUD/USD.

  • Schwerepunkt

    So true, but is it not possible for the people to demand change from their leaders, and if they do not comply with those demands, to change those very same leaders? 

    Perhaps I am supremely naive, but I believe we have the tools (digital social networking and guerrilla cyber-warriors) now to shape public discourse and public policy to an extent that was never possible before! 

    Just sayin . . . . 

  • Anonymous

    Govts (in ‘free’ world) control of internet increasing exponentially. Soon we will need to register with govt to have password-access to internet. New laws passed daily in Congress (and other countries) curtailing internet ‘freedoms’

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com Deej

    I know BOJ. What’s MOF?

  • Anonymous

    The equivalent of the US treasury. Ministry of Finance, that is the body government that orders the BOJ what to do.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I call them BOJ mofos.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t doubt it one bit that in the future we’ll need to register to use the internet.¬† Our gov’t will pass a patriotic sounding law stating it will protect us from “evil” people.

  • Anonymous

    That will never happen until we get money out of politics, until then our “elected” leaders are nothing but whores who only care about enriching themselves and their cronies. The U.S. has become a Kleptocracy.

    While we did get rid of one of the Dicks http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/congressman-norm-dicks-ranking-member.html. Sadly, he’ll most likely be replaced by someone just as corrupt.

  • Anonymous

    ZERO STUCK!  How about everyone else/
     

  • Anonymous

    VIX  open stab below BB

  • Anonymous

    ditto

  • Schwerepunkt

    Curious with markets generally down. 

  • Anonymous

    Yep

  • Anonymous

    Stuck on my end. Who’s got the red phone to Mole?

  • Anonymous

    VIX getting creamed!

  • Anonymous

    Might be a good sign if your bearish. Also add that the SPX and DOW have off. One of them is wrong just like last Monday.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Could it have to do with the rollover in futs? offloading insurance on ESH2 for example but not yet buying insurance fo ESM2?

  • Anonymous

    Picked up VXX calls:)

  • Anonymous

    TVIX missed the low by .01:)

  • Anonymous

    Someone just bought a boatload of insurance:)

  • Anonymous

    AAPL flying again!!!!

  • Anonymous

    well so far so good. I re entered at 86.39.

  • volar

    new post