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Monday Morning Briefing
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Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleJune 16, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

So the GBP/JPY is painting a pretty distinct divergence right now. Not a reason to grab long positions but it’s an early warning sign that we may see a bounce today.

The conditions are favorable for a dead cat bounce at least – here’s the hourly SPX cash. As you can see it’s managed to hold the 100-hour SMA as I previously suggested. The SMA is still rising however and that puts the onus on the bulls to stave off further selling. Even if we see a push higher today however there is still the possibility for it turning into a dead cat bounce. We’ll have to closely monitor the internals today – so keep an eye on the Zero Lite for divergences and early signs of monkey business.

Here’s the hourly spoos in the context of my BBs – we’re somewhere in the mid of nowhere right now. What’s interesting is the tentative rising diagonal it’s producing. We may see a quick stab lower near the open to scare out some of the children – I don’t think the bulls are in real trouble until below ES 1916.

But we have work to do this morning, so let’s get rolling. Here’s crude which looks like a good buy above 107.39. Stop below 107 – and I mean below, don’t tack it right there.

EUR/CAD – attempt to paint a floor and although we may see a retest of that NLSL I want to be long above that 100-hour SMA.

If you weren’t a sub last week then you may be experiencing a pounding pressure in your cranium. May I suggest a dose of Excedrin – Oberyn Martell strongly recommends it. Less invasive (home-grown organic) treatment available below the fold:

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P.S.: No skulls were crushed during the production of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Skynard

    Short /CL on break of 107

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, that works – put your stop at the long trigger.

  • Skynard

    All done for now, potential catalyst for market correction at this point:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Whilst most are focusing on where the market may be going … others are focused on where they should be … it has been long recognised that Day of the Week stats can be valuable … in a similar vein RO of the day stats also paint a picture of when your RBT is performing … and when it may be opportune to step aside … but then this implies that one actually has a RBT!

    The chart below dissects one such RBT and illustrates when the operator ‘should’ attend … and play elsewhere for the rest of the time.

    It should be noted that as I live in Vanuatu, the RO times (for myself and students) are Van-centric.

  • Skynard

    AUD break of .9300 gets me full short.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Irrespective of whether .94 is broken first or not ?

  • Skynard

    Hum, still has put in a lower low. Believe that opportunity has passed.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Stay tuned … the question remains.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Next bear train for AUDUSD due within the next 90 minutes … basis 30 m view.

  • Skynard

    Bulls need to hold SPX 1940 IMO.

  • Skynard

    Back to full long /DX

  • SS_JJ

    looks to me that the dead cat bounce is over

  • Ronebadger

    is THAT the “re-test”??? Re-Test is done???

    No, I guess not…

  • Skynard

    Would not count that out, looking for a flush out wave down before that happens. Should get the VIX hopping:)

  • SS_JJ

    Could be a shallow retest. Right now I’m gone back into shorting mode.

  • ridingwaves

    be wary of Fed Wednesday

  • Ronebadger

    Let’s see how it looks IF we get to SPX 1900/1920

  • SS_JJ

    Quadruple Witching this week on Friday.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    I scalped DARA about 30 days ago for some good change…huge volume flowing in off orphan drug status by FDA news today, keeping price in check as big boys accumulate…could bounce to $2+ some change in next couple days…stop at 1.25..price exit of 2.50..only issue is it might not move as fast based on accumulation now so it might not be day trade worthy…

  • Skynard

    107 seems to be appropriate line for crude.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys are NOT paying attention.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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