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Monday Morning Briefing
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Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleDecember 8, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-12-08_NQ_briefing

Equities are hanging in the balance right now as I’m seeing ST support being touched on all three major index futures contracts. The most tasty IMO is the NQ as it’s on top of its lower 100-hour Bollinger. I’m long here but the odds are even and we could easily slide lower which would then become the theme of the day. My line in the sand here is NQ 4295 – below that I’ll be short with a stop above 4300.

2014-12-08_AUDJPY_briefing

AUD/JPY – similar to the EUR/SEK it’s been gyrating in a very nice channel pattern. I’m tempted to grab a long if it decides to descend toward 100 again. Stop would be placed at the low of the candle which breached and reverted the 100-hr BB (I hope that’s clear, just look at previous touches and it’ll become crystal).

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Skidmarkalot

    Per your request Mole, I own a Precision Machine Shop that manufactures Microwave Components for Government and Military use. We also build housings that contain the working parts for the Internet you use when flying cross country. As a employer we have downsized to about 27 employees that are top notch in our field!

  • Billabong

    I’ve had a low probability sell signal on both NQ (6 days) and YM (16 days) … This is Abby normal. Along with all the other divergent indicators…

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like Oil wants to test Dec 1st Low

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking your original comment on ‘free’ is more likely.

    {link}
    http://evilspeculator.com/thursday-morning-briefing-59/#comment-1691430904

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XLE, the worm has turned.

    double bottom or worse.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p27496349423

  • BobbyLow

    Amazing ain’t it?

    As crazy as this is, I think we’ve both seen the markets go beyond whatever limits or boundaries set by “conventional” thought. I wouldn’t bet the deed to the ranch on it but perhaps it does hit 30 as stated on the Barrons cover you posted yesterday. Who knows? I know I don’t.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Never say Never” has never rang so loud and true.
    at some point I just go into Monk mode and wait for the nukes to start poppin.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So much for economic recovery – all that shit has moved to Asia now. And the sad fact is that many middle aged employees are losing their jobs at the height of their earning potential (i.e. 30s and 40s). The long term implications of this ongoing trend are being ignored and will lead to an economic disaster further down the line.

  • Skynard

    Took that /ZL long last week, it looks ripe

  • Skidmarkalot

    I agree 100 percent. None of my employees wants to work for a competitive wage of my overseas competition. I keep offering a bowl of rice a day for wages but no takers………

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehehehe :-)

  • ridingwaves

    Maybe you can add some chicken and get a couple bites…

  • ridingwaves

    company party was at winery this weekend, filled up for gas in Napa at 2.97…..never thought I would see the 2’s in my lifetime again…..QE4 is the game

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wait. you work for a company? I thought you traveled the world finding the ultimate waves, and occasionally visiting banks?
    😉

    https://cinematicinvestigations.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/swayze-point-break.png

  • ridingwaves

    Soon…Company was sold last month, my best trade ever..start up to 325million
    excellerated vesting is a bitch though…

  • ridingwaves

    ex-divi on TCAP today–.59c currently 10% yield if you want some capital gains this year..could find 19.50 though by end of day…I might pick it up there…tax loss selling before ex-divi today making it more attractive

  • ridingwaves

    financials carrying market since October by the looks of that chart..

  • BobbyLow

    Hey GG,

    I think you like to trade XLE. I also think you hate options as much as I do. But one thing you might want to consider is ITM XLE Weekly Options no further out then 2 weeks. When short term options are fairly deep ITM, there is much less effect by Vega and very little Time Value (Theta Burn) to worry about.

    I normally don’t like USO but in the past few weeks, I’ve done fairly well with ITM short term USO puts. BTW, forget about SCO/UCO Options as the Spread is way too wide. I will only trade these kind of options with the trend and no bottom calling because of time constraints.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I will take that into consideration. thanks!

    FYI – I may not know where oil will bottom, but I certainly have a Time! he he

    http://s10.postimg.org/8k4y31akn/xmas_putin.png

    (and yes, I did make a little lunch money off this RBL ETF wanker in March)

  • BattleZone

    Good day in ES so far… bought 2069.50, sold (double-sold!) 2073.75, just now bought 2065.50. Stop is .75 and pretty much expecting to get stopped out on that one. Pivot at 2061.50 is attractor.

  • BattleZone

    Moved stop to 1.00 and survived so far. Possible nice double-tap bottom there. If it comes down again i’ll take my medicine for -1.00.

  • Skynard

    Div developing on the hourly, long

  • BattleZone

    Lightened up 1/3 for +2.00.

    The big question is whether to sell again if we reach yesterday’s low at 2069.75.

  • Skynard

    Crude getting spanked again

  • HJS

    US Gov guarantees banking and reassigns the debt to the public. Great sector since they coined the term “Too Big to Fail”. Some are too big to jail.

  • BattleZone

    Thanks for pointing that out, will keep my eye on that one.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s subtle but it bears keeping an eye on.

  • BattleZone

    Stopped for -1.00 on 2 contracts, Made +2 on 2 contracts, so not complaining. And not going short… might buy 2061, but probably done for day, nicely in profit.

  • ridingwaves

    time for a little pullback for the year end launch…need some late to cover shorts for the thrust

  • Objectively_Bias

    Intraday breadth is oversold to extremes. Ideal long opportunity @ 2059-56 ES.

  • ridingwaves

    JNK seems to be pointing towards small correction

  • BattleZone

    Well I bought ES 2057 with a .75 stop. What steamroller?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Objectively_Bias

    The down trend day alert is a concern but still great risk/reward.

  • Skynard

    Whoa, down we go.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Alert? Shhhh, don’t tell the leeches!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so, did that 5min divergence work this time?
    😀

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AAPL, down 2.5% ouch.

    $119 bag holders he he

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=15&id=p30057911141
    there’s a gap down at 100.
    (*no positions)

  • BattleZone

    Yeah and it was scary to buy there, ES is very very heavy… anyway I play the Info Risk game, as opposed to Price Risk that is, so I bought it even though I felt stupid. Now I’m sitting on my helmet. This looks like the kind of “oversold” that just keeps on keepin on, and another 12 points down is not inconceivable.

  • BattleZone

    Big time.

  • ridingwaves

    GPRO has 53 on PNF chart as target….its moving that way by the looks of it….

  • Objectively_Bias

    If this doesn’t paint a floor by 2053 I have 2040 as my next target.

  • ridingwaves

    all flags mess me up as I don’t get the premise…note to self:more studying required..

  • Objectively_Bias

    7 min chart looks good though….

  • BattleZone

    Stopped and got long again at same price. First reason: my internal almost-100%-accurate Personal Capitulation indicator fired a signal. 😉 and also the Zero is showing bullish divergence on 5-minute. I think this might be the one. It’s certainly my last attempt at this swing.

  • ridingwaves

    OT-
    Fannie, Freddie detail 3%-down payment mortgage program
    Price in 28 metro areas are at or above housing bubble 1 peak…..need to sustain bubble 2 until all the houses are unloaded by banks which would seem to be very near with 12% distressed last month in sales mix…how will this help? It won’t, as payment to income (PTI) for lower salaried qualifiers will be way above thresholds to lend to them…. funny that, a government lending arm being wound down via ponzi economics.. right now the fed is praying for hyper inflation in wages to sell the bank owned american dream…

    taxpayers, the other white meat….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • BobbyLow

    Flags don’t work for me either. We can all be on the same page using different things.