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Monday Morning Briefing
35

Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleApril 20, 2015

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-04-20_spoos_briefing

Index futures are still in shake out mode – as I told you last week it’s best to stay away for now and let this play out. Thus far my caution seems to have been appropriate – just look at this tape on the hourly and tell me if that’s something you really want to be trading. As a side note – for some reason the 2088/2089 mark produces a lot of context. It doesn’t line up with anything on my charts except that I drew this line when I entered long and then got stopped out right there again. And I remember mentioning this level on previous occasions, so for some reason it keeps coming up. Like this morning when we’re bumping against it after a run higher overnight.

2015-04-20_AUDCAD_briefing

We have nice AUD and CAD related entries today. Which is great but if you take them I suggest very small position sizing as we have pertinent event risk a few hours away. Anyway here’s the AUD/CAD and I am long with a stop below the recent spike low. I’m giving this a few hours to ride higher and produce some distance ahead of the BoC governor speech. If it just hangs around here I’ll probably pull it as I’d be sure to be whipsawed out during the event.

2015-04-20_events

Here’s what we’re facing today – set your clocks.

More setups below the fold:

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I mentioned in the sub only section that I’m taking very small position sizes here. Reason being is that we’re in clear shake out mode on both the forex and equities side. It’s a tough market to be active in and you need to be on top of your game, remain nimble, patient, and not get emotional. All those attributes are easier to fulfill when you don’t really care about pulling a loss – ergo take small positions and know your stops and targets before you enter a campaign.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • HeadNShoulder

    Thanks Sir Mole for the headsup.

  • M E

    Good morning folks. Welcome to another profitable trading week. Keep your stops in and your head clear.

  • HNO3

    Good morning. I have a horizontal s/r line drawn in @ 2089 on my ES chart as well, I think because it served as resistance in mid-February and then again on 3/25 before a large down move to the bottom of the range.

  • HNO3

    …and December high in the continuous contract.

  • hellbent

    What do pirates have for breakfast?

  • Skynard

    SPX 2100 backtest complete. /ZW should have the power to clear 500 now:)

  • hellbent

    And the DX is stuck on 98 again. From the experts at numerology.com:

    “Number 8 and Number 9 will probably find that there is an instant attraction between them when they meet. Number 8 will be captivated by Number 9’s energy and vitality, and Number 9 will find Number 8’s confidence and strength of character irresistible”

    There you go; it was bound to happen.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes but other “experts” have said that “when there are fractals involved this method can change from simple to complex making it difficult to distinguish between the numbers 8 and 9”. :)

  • mugabe

    seems to me market’s at 6s and 7s

  • hellbent

    Commodities and comdolls are shaking too.

    It’s been a good morning.

  • BobbyLow

    Perhaps we can get these guys to build a system out of them. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgPH0tYXJrA

  • Skynard

    SPX 2105 gap fill

  • Skynard

    SPX 2105 gap fill

  • ridingwaves

    A WS Sunday op-ed on top short sellers still afraid to step in front of this train was telling re:timing…

  • kudra

    any thoughts on GENE? Shot up today and then got faded. Can it see $6?

  • ridingwaves

    Friday their was someone trying to get in, it’s at weekly support with 50sma pushing thru that support north so it may consolidate a little and then try to go higher…

    I’m in very heavy and up nicely on another low floater that is in same space with a lot of news recently

  • kudra

    Thanks. I’ve admired your game from afar. You seem to have a knack for these small names.

  • ridingwaves

    thanks, I don’t know why I post as this is an index/fx/commodities hangout, definitely not a bio spec place of ilk but the information, traders and setups are top notch here…a couple calls that I got lucky with earlier last year were huge….CLDX at 13 and CLVS at 35ish were grand slams….

    I like OSIR for long term hold as PPS will begin heading north after this consolidation over next 24 month…year 3 will see triple digits..

  • mugabe

    Cor lumme, guv!

  • Skynard

    Pegging her @ 96.50 to complete a massive H&S.

  • Skynard

    /SB, good long here

  • ridingwaves

    took a second look and if you can buy it at 5.15-5.30 L with stop at 5.00 you should be alright and take advantage of next move higher…Volume says it might spike again….the float is so low another news piece tomorrow may push it out of this support zone….anything north of 9.50 take profit as it will have a hard time getting above it… the 50 pushing thru the barney purple line should hold it up or give MM’s a shake out area…

    http://s15.postimg.org/p4wbe302j/GENE_high_on_4_20_day.jpg

  • Skynard

    Ok bears, your turn

  • kudra

    sounds like a plan.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I trade that advice any day!!

  • Skynard

    Div fail on the SPX, time to run.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Doesn’t seem to be resolving right now…

  • mugabe

    printed it out and stuck it on the wall behind my screen. it’s info that like that that gets me coming back here.

  • mugabe

    was listening to an interview with Tom Basso (conservative trend follower) and he said, in passing, that the biggest one day drawdown he’s ever had in his portfolio overall (over a period of decades) is 6%.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    _____ .__ __
    _/ __________ ____ _____| |__ _____ ____ _____ _/ |_
    __\_ __ _/ __ / ___/ | / _/ __ \__ \ __
    | | | | / ___/ ___ | Y | Y Y ___/ / __ | |
    |__| |__| ___ >____ >___| / |__|_| /___ >____ /__|
    / / / / / /

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is pretty fucking awesome.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See, trend following – it works.

  • mugabe

    think it’s more about his risk management protocols

  • Skynard

    Giving it some time here, a shit ton of longs will be traped:)

  • vladv

    he will have had probably dozens of positions scattered across as many uncorrelated markets as possible, with strict limits across sectors: meats, grains, metals, softs etc.