Now Reading
Monday Morning Briefing
95

Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleAugust 3, 2015

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-08-03_spoos_briefing

I have literally labored all through the weekend and am completely exhausted. So this is going to be a quick one as I need to hit the gym and engage in some stress absorbing activities. The spoos are looking like a nice long here – stop below the now rising 100-hour SMa. Below it I would not consider a short with a stop around 2087 (i.e. the 100-day SMA which is looking solid).

2015-08-03_NQ_briefing

The NQ pretty much in the same configuration. Also taking out a small long position here but I would not go short when stopped out.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

2015-08-03_event_risk

A bit of event risk this morning half an hour after the NYSE open, so watch your six if you’re holding USD related pairs. Catch you in a few hours.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Thanks Mole!

  • ridingwaves

    VIX 11.80-12 seems to be good place to go L vix as it keeps bouncing north from there

  • Skynard

    Not liking the long side, breach of 2090 will get me short.

  • ridingwaves

    I keep getting a 2030 move down and then your all time high later this month….this has been the choppiest earnings season in long time….a change in sentiment for sure…

  • Skynard

    Price should have taken 2100, bearish to me.

  • Skynard

    Full short on a declining ZL

  • Skynard

    ASE down over 20%, is this correct?

  • saltwaterdog

    Y. Been closed since Jun 26

  • Ronebadger
  • Skynard

    No kidding, if price does not regain /ES 2100 my bear suit will be pulled out of the closet. All moth eaten:)

  • Skynard

    Long crude on the spike low.

  • BobbyLow

    Looking like a retest of 3/17 Close of 42.43 on Crude might be on the way.

  • ridingwaves

    starting to look at scaling into some MLP’s as they are at 2009 levels again…

  • hellbent

    Crikey, that was a quick profit 😉

  • Skynard

    Remaining long here, good volume. Cut 1/2 /es added to crude long.

  • hellbent

    So much head room it’s not funny…

    Crikey was funny though, because of the spike. Crikey!

  • ridingwaves

    That’s what the last passenger said upon getting on flight 370 and you know how that turned out

  • hellbent

    Well, no, actually… Have they ID’d that wing bit yet?

  • ridingwaves

    bam….out of vix long…

  • Skynard

    Ok, flipped to long /ES on 5 min.

  • ridingwaves

    pieces are just now washing up on Reunion island

  • hellbent

    Steve Irwin might have been quite good a playing for reversals.. It’s a bit like grabbing a crayfish, or crocodile, I reckon. If you can master it it has to be an edge. Success might be low but potential to run is fantastic. If there’s a smart place for a stop it can be a good low risk entry quite often. Also, you’re very often able to get on the right side of breakeven quickly.

  • BobbyLow

    “If you can master it it has to be an edge. Success might be low but potential to run is fantastic.”

    Or sometimes it might simply be catching a falling knife. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Slow day – did I mention I hate summer?

  • hellbent

    Indeed. Blow off could be looming. Looks bloody likely in fact. It will eventually bungy rocket its way back up again though.. Would be a nice one to catch just at the right time.

  • mugabe

    depends which end you catch it :)

  • hellbent

    Don’t try and catch a tiger by the tongue :)

  • mugabe

    been there, done that

  • BKXtoZERO

    adding another quarter position size to my crude oil hold, slowly building and at half intended allocation as of now.

  • BobbyLow

    Patience. As tempting as it might be, I’m going to try to sit on my hands a lot more and not try to catch every single move and counter move. I’m currently short from 7/30 at $48.35. I’ve already spoken about how much I fucked up a longer term trade on this thing by using faster charts, I should have been short from 7/1 at $56.87 using the Daily. Ya I know, coulda, woulda, shoulda. :)

  • mugabe

    problem with the stop is gapping down overnight … a very real possibility

  • newbfxtrader

    Averaging into a losing position?

  • ridingwaves

    bought L 1/2 R on JUNO..like it here, not speculative smybol, CELG gave them a billion, reason for the gap, gap now filled, don’t rap the gap….Stop 45.50

    http://s11.postimg.org/mhf007bfn/Juno_buy_level_8_1_15.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    long term hold, not trading, looking to get out of dollars and into gold/silver/oil which no doubt have been beaten by the powers that be but I have a long term outlook with these funds.

  • Billabong

    Why not start a position and average in when it turns in your direction ….

  • Billabong

    You were probably doing a tap dance today … after a 11 point move. I got half of it and reduced 1/3 today. Friday was a flip. I thought I was looking at BE on CL long, then came the $$$ reversal 10 mins before opening and allowed me to close out at the open with +0.6R and flip to short when contract failed to hold LOD late in the afternoon. For me, next support area is $43.71 followed by 3 Mar LOD at $42.41. If it breaks $42.41, who knows where it goes from there.

  • BobbyLow

    Here are a few quotes from Jesse Livermore. IMO, most of what he said 75 to 85 Years ago remain true today. I need to read them more often myself.

    http://leavittbrothers.com/chartspeak/ChartSpeak_040608.pdf

  • mugabe

    there are lots of ways of looking at this… rebalancing works as a conservative portfolio policy and it consists in selling winners and adding to losers.

    having said that, rebalancing applies to a balanced portfolio and not one slanted to hard assets.

  • mugabe

    timeless ,,, and even he blew up!

  • Billabong

    conservative portfolio policy … adding to losers? Isn’t that a hope philosophy?

  • Billabong

    always a treat rereading it.

  • kudra

    grabbed a bushel of shares at 46.50. Any thoughts on GENE or ACUR? thnx.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – nada to do with ‘hope’ … IF that (averaging down aka adding to a losing long as an example) is part of the original strategy … overall exposure and total risk can be easily pre-defined from the onset.

  • mugabe

    absolutely not in the context of a IRA with a mixture of stocks, bonds and possibly commods/gold. Read Ritholtz/Josh Brown on this. There’s little debate about this, but it’s not easy to do psychologicially. Quarterly rebalancing has been to shown to be best.
    I don’t practise this so I’m not talking my own book.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. This move down in crude was the real deal and you played it extremely well B-Bong. Mole was also on the money with his post on CL of 7/30.

    I agree with you on the support levels and as of the close today, I’ve got a pretty wide stop and Flip at $48.65. I’m slowing things down on the swing side with a plan to take fewer trades and stay in them longer. I get enough fast action with my Forex Scalper to keep me busy in the mean time. :)

  • hellbent

    You’re in phase now. That counts for more than anything I can think of at the moment. Good stuff.

  • Billabong

    You guys are killing me … I spent a year in rehab learning not to add to losers. Here we are talking about adding to losers as a strategy and below they’re talking about catching falling knives as a reversal strategy. Ok. I will accept risk defined before you add …. is it total risk or rolling risk … first entry goes away at 1%, second entry goes away at 1%, etc…

  • Billabong

    A good example of an opportunity to add to losers with 0% bullish support are gold miners. You’re still killing me…

  • hellbent

    LBR has good things to say about it.

    1) Being pleased when the market is moving against you :)

    2) Positive slippage :)

    Like catching the sword though: if you don’t master it you will fail. But ain’t that trading for you?

  • mugabe

    in the end the only reason to add to losers – or to add to winners, for that matter – is if it’s within a profitable evidence-based strategy and *not* based on some gut feeling/macro view (unless you’re Soros)

  • mugabe

    I had a a brief unprofitable flirtation with catching swords based on rules. The problem i found is that when you screen, you can have days on end with v few /no set ups and then days with tons. and they’re often correlated.

  • mugabe

    I’m waiting for BPI to go negative … never happened before 😉

  • BobbyLow

    I agree with you 100%. Take it from me. I have made at least 80% of all trading mistakes that there are. And one of my worst and most egregious mistakes that I’ve ever made (I am embarrased to say) way too many times was adding to losers.

    Don’t fucking do it!

  • Edd

    Killing me as well. With all of the valuable experience, mentoring, system building knowledge and tutoring, and trading prowess available here,not counting the wealth of trading touts and ideas freely given here why would one ever consider falling knives, adding to loosing positions and flippin planning to add even more, etc? I am confused. Why even come to a site like this? Geez, no wonder we can still make money trading correctly. What was that quote again about losers NOT seemingly willing or able to act like winners?

  • Edd

    Amen!

  • mugabe
  • hellbent

    Oil is the lifeblood of industry. Silver and gold??

  • hellbent

    raining swords – ouch

  • Edd

    You are buying paper supplied by the very same “powers”, not the product itself. SCO is up everyday since 6-25 on the daily chart. 70% increase. A 70% increase in a month without trading futures. Why not simply do as you have been encouraged and build a simple system on the daily chart. Look at it once at open and again at close. When oil increases flip to UCO. From 4-2 to 5-6 same type performance from UCO , up every day for a month 48% return. Screw building a position. Be on the right side of the trade continually. It is easy to set up a basic system this way. You have the ability to do this. You could do it in less time than you spend reading and writing here and have it finished and in production. There is no excuse for you not to do this.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – totally on the same page … as part of a valid RBT easing into a position (aka averaging down), especially in size, is very different to averaging in … merely because the initial position is losing … apples and pears type situation.

  • Billabong

    LoL — :-)

  • BKXtoZERO

    guilty as charged. No system as of yet which is why I don’t “trade” anymore. However I am sitting on physical silver bought in 08 panic at 8-10$ and will hold that for life, probably pass it to my daughter.

  • BKXtoZERO

    silver and gold is money. In 2008 I got out of ALL “extra” dollars and put it into silver at 8-10$ as a long term move simply not to have money in a bank and to protect my wealth out of the system. I have taken stabs during this relentless 4 year correction (to me) and am PROUD not to have lost on any of it. I’ve had stops along the way but I am looking at long term end game not trading. I have a portion I used to “trade” which I am now also looking to hold oil in. Someday I may learn to trade like you guys but I really don’t have time to devote so I stopped. Anyway I sure got you guys talking again. I should probably just keep to myself but on a positive note any time I post it seems to give all of you a focal point to rally in unison against almost anything that I post :-)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks! I see all of your points and those of others. If nothing else I seem to get you guys talking and am able to unite all of you in an instant (usually against me LOL) but perhaps I serve a purpose after all….

  • BKXtoZERO

    NOT trading, but in terms of “buying” /investing in “perceived value”, I’ve always had a buy the dip mentality. I always buy my sweaters after Christmas at 10$ not 50. I have silver from 08 at 8$.

  • ridingwaves

    ACUR – Rev. split looming? need to get pps above $1, cash on hand 14 million, burn rate 4-5 qtrs
    Chart has support at .70 and can go higher but it might just sit around here for a bit until news…

    Gene- Sell on strength for now…3.52 – 4.20 resistance…

    Celg valued Juno at 93 Pps with investment.. let it play out

  • Skynard

    Not a bad start, relaxation does wonders. Need to do that more often:)

  • Scott Phillips

    You have been warned several times. You have a 100 percent chance of blowing up your account.

    Saying “I’m not a trader I’m building a position” while you trade without stops, money management or risk management is quite frankly retarded.

    You were the guy with the hard maths background right? It’s constantly amazing how smart people can be so stupid

  • Scott Phillips

    A losing trader will not do the work required to become a winning trader – because doing that work is something that winning traders do! – paraphrased from Seykota

  • Scott Phillips

    The mindset behind adding to a loser is to avoid the emotional pain of a losing trade, and somehow reframe that as a win.

    It’s the loser thinking which is the problem not the strategy.

    Agree – losers average losers!

  • Scott Phillips

    Trading is difficult. We know this. Catching reversals is the hardest thing in trading, we know this.

    When you trade to catch reversals you are stepping into the ring with Tyson having 1 arm tied behind your back. You have to be very very good just to stay alive

  • BKXtoZERO

    Perhaps you missed the part where I mentioned that I have used stops on all metals “trades”/moves, investments (whatever) during the brutal 4 year correction and was proud NOT to have lost money during this correction? and that I hold silver from 8$? Most hard asset guys have been wiped out.

  • mugabe

    I can understand that you don’t want to trade frequently. But that doesn’t mean who you have to buy into a particular scenario (e.g. gold is money) which is, objecively speaking, a very high risk strategy, however convinced you are that you’re right.

  • Careus

    you have written 2 times that you are “PROUD” that you didn’t lost…that alone will get you in trouble…to be proud and to trade markets…doesn’t mix well

    to add more on falling price is a big no no…you can only add if you were ‘right’ and market went in your direction…that adding produces different emotions in that 2 cases…emotions will have big impact on how you manage that averaged position

  • Skynard

    Have accumulated since forever it seems. Always prefered physical and maybe at some point will get back to that standard.

  • hellbent

    I’m bullish on oil long term but that is really only a hindrance to trading that I try to keep from being a bias. Long term I have no idea what will happen to gold and silver. It’s not so much a currency anymore. Still I battle with a bias on those two.

    It’s a pretty tough crew here 😉 You can group the criticism several ways I think. Sometimes you’re messing with peoples dogmatic rules and that causes them to react. These bloody rats though can tell the shit from the shinola I tell you. It sucks when you’re bullshitting yourself and they pounce :) but it’s as valuable to you as it is everyone else that’s reading. It just takes a few days to sink in. At least that’s what I heard somewhere….

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, wow

  • Skynard

    Crude on the move, volume has been huge the past 2 weeks.

  • Skynard

    WTF, look at AUD go.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Guten Morgen!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Took off like gangbusters!

  • hellbent

    Excellent! I’m on ozzy payroll :))

  • hellbent

    Morning, Mole!

  • Skynard

    Damn, and a dollar correction on top.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    EURUSD seems unaffected (fortunately).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Then again Scalpius is long EURUSD so either way works for me 😉

  • Skynard

    With that one, still short /DX. Move very close

  • hellbent

    Bucky does look a bit ill

  • Billabong

    Needs a solid break of 25 EMA (holding channel in upward trend since 23 June).

  • Skynard

    97 test coming this am

  • mugabe

    it’s been a shite currency last few months. even worse than euro :)

  • hellbent

    article in the kiwi news had them turning into the next Greece… Might be overstating it a tad.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ( ( ( ) *
    ) ) ) ) ) ) ( /( ( ` ( * )
    (()/( (()/( ( (()/( )()) )))( ( ) ` ) /(
    /(_)) /(_))) /(_))((_) ((_)() ) ((((_)( ( )(_))
    (_))_|(_)) ((_) (_)) _((_) (_()((_)((_) ) _ ) (_(_())
    | |_ | _ | __|/ __| | || | | / || __|(_)_(_)|_ _|
    | __| | /| _| __ | __ | | |/| || _| / _ | |
    |_| |_|_|___||___/ |_||_| |_| |_||___|/_/ _ |_|

  • Skynard

    Lol, all currency will aventually be in the shitter. That’s why my physical is up:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    I did some hard thinking last night. Your reply is accurate. There is no stricter code anywhere else than I know of and I see the reasoning of all of it. I have every trading/or investing “problems” like bias deeply ingrained and even what I consider to better or more innocent ways of doing things will never hold water w/ hard core trader logic which I cannot fault.