Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

As you probably are aware the NYSE is going to close early today at 1:00pm EST. Thus I don’t expect a whole lot of movement in the hours ahead. But you can’t be sure given the political brinksmanship in Washington which could give rise to a healthy dose of volatility at a moment’s notice. So if you must trade today then please do yourself a favor and reduce your exposure to a bare minimum. You’ll thank me later.

The E-Mini is back at the 25-hour SMA and this usually is a good place to get positioned on a short term basis. Short on SMA failure and long on a breach – you all know the drill by now. However, in the context of those monster candles still in sight from last Friday (flash crash – cough cough) I am rather hesitant and probably will stick with some setups over on currencies and commodities.

The recent EUR ramp and run game still seems to be the going recipe. Risk is on during trading hours over here in Europe which is then followed by a sell off during NYSE hours. At this point the EUR/USD is back at its 100-hour SMA and I am long with a stop below. If they play the same script today then I’ll grab a short position as soon as she drops below the 100-hour again.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cable however seems to be in a foul mood this morning as it just broke below its 25-hour and a NLSL. I am currently short with a stop above the SMA. Obviously things are a bit fickle in the coming days and I would be long as soon as it pops back above the SMA.

NZD/USD on the other hand seems to be pretty consistently weak – right now I am short with a stop above the 25-hour. And if she actually manages to paint a floor and pops above 0.823 I’m long. Ya se verá.

The old greenback is testing the 100-hour once more and I’m long with a stop below the SMA.

Crude at the 25-hour and seems to be breaching a new NLSL which is good for the next four hours. I’m short with a stop above the SMA.

Gold – below the 100-hour – currently I’m short with a stop above. But I know that this is a pretty risky trade right now which is why I am only holding a handful of contracts. If we get any type of news this thing could take off in any direction – good luck getting a decent fill if you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. Treat carefully.

Soybeans – looking positive right now and it seems that it wants to pop above that hourly NLBL – I’m currently short with a stop above but will flip it if it pops above. May take a few attempts but fortunately volatility here is pretty contained.


Public Service Announcement: This will be my last post for today and since I expect most of you to take a few days off I’m planning on reducing the frequency of posts over the coming days. Expect me to chime in intermittently and if we see any significant moves then I’ll be sure to put up some charts, no worries. Starting January 2nd I will resume my usual daily chart-a-thon – assuming of course that I’ll survive the truckload of fireworks that captainboom sold me (what does ICBM stand for again?) And yes, all indicators and systems will continue to run as usual throughout the week.

Wishing all you Christian steel rats a very merry Christmas! And the rest of you a happy holidays! Light a candle for the Mole but please keep the fire extinguisher handy. That means you captainboom! 😉


This entry was posted on Monday, December 24th, 2012 at 8:21 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • captainboom

    Thanks for the call out Boss!  Just wear some safety glasses and don’t hold them in your hand 😉  There’s some really great stuff that happens in Spain.  If anyone happens to be in Grand Rapids, MI on NYE, I’ve got an indoor show on the ice right after the Griffins hockey game.

  • Evil_Gerb
  • law6


       Have a wonderful few days off and  know how much I do appreciate every tiny morsel of your kind hearted brilliance and attentiveness.LOVE to you and yours


  • TheBHBgroup

    Happy Holidays Mole and family…all the best for another successful 2013!

  • molecool

    Thanks! I’ll probably working on that Mole trading strategy, no rest for the restless!

  • molecool

    Captain – you have no idea how loud those things are over here. Those Spaniards are insane!!! Have fun over the next few days – ’tis your season!!

  • molecool

    The way it’s going we can probably use a stack of real ones a few years down the road.

  • molecool

    Thank you – wishing you the same!

  • Skynard

    Looks like the HOD on the /ES, sold hard before the open.

  • Evil_Gerb

    it may be that ‘special’ time.

  • Skynard

    Just in time for the holidays:)

  • ridingwaves

    Feliz Navidad and Feliz Ano Nuevo to all 

  • Evil_Gerb

    just don’t chain yourself to the trading desk.

    Merry Christmas Muppets.

  • bdoone

    RUT/IWM catchin bid.

  • Evil_Gerb
  • captainboom

    Mmmmm…. Yes I do!  For those here who have not experienced the mascleta, here’s an example:

    No way in hell this could happen in the states, right in the middle of town.  The only thing that comes close to this is the Pyrotechnics Guild International convention each year in early August.  The 2013 convention is in Butler, PA.  Worth going to if you like fireworks.

  • ridingwaves

    they also meet every year in Lake Havasu, AZ in Feb. to test new designs…hours of fireworks for a week…

  • molecool

    Just a nothingburger today…

  • molecool

    Tú tambien!

  • molecool

    That’s my city!!! I live like one minute away from la plaza del ayuntamento. You should come to visit during las fallas!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    gbp and euro setups were players

  • AMCabrera

    Nien USD/NOK was nice today.

  • Skynard

    Shorted AUDJPY 88 level

  • molecool

    It’s ‘nein’ – si uses mi idioma, por favor trate de hacerlo correctamente 😛

  • captainboom

    That would be the Western Winter Blast, sponsored by the Western Pyrotechnics Association.  Held on President’s Day weekend every year.  I’ve not been to Winter Blast, but I have many good friends that have.  Definitely another great place to go if you like fireworks.

  • captainboom

    I’d love to take you up on that, once I bank enough coin.  I’d like to bring my daughter, who’s studying Spanish in HS.

  • AMCabrera

    sorry…I was using my phone and it kept trying to auto correct 😉

  • amokta
  • Skynard

    Short /ES 23.5, much uncertainty in the market right now:)

  • i Bergamot

     ES open interest is only 2.7mil. That’s low. Not many are short = empty bus ( or at least not full).
    Santa X-mas Massacre?

  • Skynard

    Whoa, hell of a spike in /CL. 2.5%

  • Skynard

    Bearish this week, me thinks so:)

  • Skynard

    Long /DX on the pull back:)

  • Evil_Gerb

    Hope you had some Merry yesterday.

    AUD/JPY is behaving as expected.
    today’s daily (strong) candle creates some match pairs.

    at this point, the psychology is AUD/JPY will never stop.however, the trade thinking is to load up some shorts soon, on highs in the 89 range.
    the caveat is stops MUST be in place.  it is always possible AUD/JPY will just keep going higher to infinity. 😉

  • AMCabrera

    I utterly agree that is why I never over-committed myself short yen unlike the oceanic pairs. 

  • AMCabrera

    although imo is the the strength of the dollar that is piggy backing the other yen pairs in my opinion.

  • Evil_Gerb

    thank you sir, that’s a high compliment coming from a guy who does it for a living.

  • Skynard

    Pulled the trigger a little soon on Mon. added on the ramp and full short now:)

  • AMCabrera

    the real heart breaker is why I just could not have kept going long eur/jpy when i was around 104-103..I really hate when that happens. Two weeks later parabolic.

  • Evil_Gerb

    I have a great idea why, it’s happened to me, wanna hear it?

  • Evil_Gerb
  • Evil_Gerb

    ok, you gave me a like so here’s the dialog with the chart.
    My failure has been is when I get caught in a cycle mindset.
    when a cycle channel stops, trend begins.  it’s not obvious at first, my mind just won’t shift gears.  I keep looking for a reversal!

    MA’s help me now-a-days.  ‘hey dummy, i’m sloping up/down, get with the trend’.

    in this case with EUR/JPY, when 105.50 was touched, and refused to rollover in 5 days or 13 days. the MA25 was moving uphill, a stop around 106.50/107 would have been the time to raise the flag and ride full bull 108 to 112ish?

  • Skynard

    Flat /ES

  • Turps

    After our mini flash crash the other day any of my position sizes will be a fifth of what I have been trading.

  • i Bergamot

    Attention Holiday Shoppers!
    Your spending sucks!
    Retail at key support. Yea, it looks like such a beautiful inv H&S, but it it fails…
    If you like X-mas sales, wait for “Going out of business” sales

  • Ralph Scotti

    The way $vix been acting lately and stock market action, i see a total   disconnection .

  • BobbyLow

    Anybody want to take a chance on an overnight trade with this insanity going on?

    “. . .The trouble is, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, need to come up with something that also can get through the House, which has balked at any tax increases. Senate Republicans don’t want to be on the record supporting higher taxes unless they know the House also would pass it. . .”

    “. . .Senate Democratic leaders have said they won’t take action on a fallback plan unless they have assurances from Boehner that he will bring it up in the House and let it pass with a combination of Democratic and Republican votes, and from McConnell that Senate Republicans won’t filibuster it. . .”

    “. . .Senator Charles Schumer of New York, the chamber’s third- ranking Democrat, told reporters Dec. 21 that “the key to this is the House.” McConnell wouldn’t “want to have his members put their necks on the line for a deal that may not pass the House,” he said. . .”

    This looks like a Full Blown Circle Jerk to me.   If past experience is any indicator at all then IMNSHO, the S&P could Tank 40 Points at a moments notice on an official budget failure or it could Rally 40 Points in a moments notice on a temporary bandaid solution.   

    Do ya feel lucky?  Well do ya?   :)

  • Evil_Gerb

    nothing like a 4 Mile hike to clear the mind.  (Bright Sun & 45F with a breeze)
    The really Big Picture on AUD/JPY, and a double emphasis on cycle period to trend period transition could be in store.
    (I don’t want to think of why, just the when if it occurs)

    [AUD/JPY MultiYear]

  • i Bergamot

     No kidding:
    “(Reuters) – The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the financial crisis, with sales growth far below expectations…”


  • Pervergence

    How about we see some verifiable trading results through something like Collective 2 ?    It’s easy to talk about how much coin and “handful of contracts”.   How about putting the trades out for everyone to see as a system and subscribe?    Then we can see where these stops are and positions and see about all this coin that is supposedly flowing into everyone’s pockets off these setups.    

  • molecool

    I looked into C2 but do not like them getting a cut. Besides discretionary trades are difficult to trace as everyone gets a different entry and many use different time frames. Finally, it would add yet another layer of complexity/effort to what I do every day. I prefer to throw out the setups and keep track of them in my blog posts. Some may criticize that or think it’s a cop out but as you have been around here for a while I think something must be working for you or you would have moved on.

    However, having said that – for the new Mole strategy I’m working on I am planning on setting up something that keeps track of each trade automatically and instantly. Meaning every trade will be sent to my db and thus be used to produce stats and charts. Mind you that won’t be part of it during the (free) beta testing period, but as I move into making it available for subscribers I will make sure to add that part. When it comes to black box strategies nothing counts but results. Of course even then your mileage may wary based on your actual entry your commission, your discipline, etc. – but it’s better than nothing.

  • molecool

    Four miles is tantamount to a marathon for a gerbil.

  • molecool

    Aaaah, not really…

  • Skynard

    Short /ES again. Gold and silver should see some buying here if this thing tanks:)

  • molecool

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