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Monday Quicky
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Monday Quicky

by The MoleApril 27, 2009

I feel generous tonight – so let’s throw out a few charts real quick:

We seem to be on track with the Blue scenario which would put us at the onset of Minute {c} of Minor 4 of Intermediate (B) of Primary wave {2}. Our target remains the 795 – 800 region. There are several justifications for this target which I won’t repeat here again – please see my comprehensive Sunday update.

However, there is still the possibility of Orange playing out, which assumes that we are Minute {iii} of Minor 5 of Intermediate (A). Our target would be the 881-885 region or the 900 mark.

I gotten a lot of hazing about Gold in the past few days. Some troll even ridiculed me for not sticking with my line in the sand – which after consideration I had pushed towards 920 (for obvious reasons). Jeeez – it’s not that I’m Mr. Bait & Switch – if I extend my stopĀ  – which is rare – I generally have a damn good reason for it. Anyway – when the goldbugs show up here it usually strengthens my resolve to shorten my favorite precious metal – and this time was no different.

Well, before I grabbed dinner just now Gold had traded at 899 – it’s a bit above 900 again but it’s taken a major hit. That’s a 20 point drop since this morning. Remember that the front month is expiring tomorrow which is why I expected a pump and dump job by the bullion banks in consort with the Goldman Boys – they do this almost every time. I might be wrong of course as nothing is guaranteed but as long as 920 doesn’t get touched I’m holding my GLD puts. 820 or bust :-)

Mr. VIX seems to be following my projected trajectory quite nicely. We are close to re-entering a prior triangle – let’s see if we see some acceleration to the downside in equities if Mr. Vix manages to jump the border around Tijuana.

Finally – If you haven’t done so check out the charts I posted on resident.evil, a new black box trading strategy I plan to release into the wild in the coming week.

NEWS FLASH: After some consideration this afternoon I decided to offer resident.evil for free to all evil.rat subscribers for the next three months. This will give you rats some time to become acclimated and decide which strategy best complements your trading style, capital commitment guidelines, and stop-loss provisions.

At the end of July resident.evil will be available as a subscription product at the same price as the evil.rat bros. And yes, there will be an ES and NQ version – just as with evil.rat. For now I will only offer resident.evil/ES as I have not fully tested/configured resident.evil/NQ. Also, the free version of resident.evil will only send emails and no SMS alerts as the latter aren’t cheap.

Maybe we get lucky and tomorrow’s tape will actually be tolerable. I tell you – April was the wrong month to quit sniffing glue…

Have a good night & see you on the other side.

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • godfather28

    Hey Mole,

    I found you by way of TK and this system looks very interesting to me. I’ve never used a blackbox type system before, but judging from the data you provide it looks very lucrative. I do have one question for you though (and I mean no offense). Why would you release a system that produces these profits for such a low monthly price? (lol, I know I sound like one of the planted audience memebers in the infomercials right now). I’m relatively new to trading, and I’ve been getting murdered lately, still just tryin to learn. You and TK seem like genuinely nice guys trying to help and I really appreciate that.

    Thanks,

    Mike

  • alphadriven

    Thanks for the decision to offer resident.evil to all evil.rat subscribers. I look forward to trading both systems.

    Also, thanks for all the great charts and the time that you put into this site. It really is hard to believe that you are doing this all by yourself.

  • Randy Harris

    Mole, thanks for the extra efforts tonight with this write up.

    +1

    It is much appreciated!

    Thanks for the 3 month trial of Resident [Evil] Rat as well, should be interesting. You're going to have to write a push iPhone client to avoid all these SMS fees :)

    The possibility of Mr Orange weighed on me a bit too much today and I dumped the Puts to go flat. If I miss a good dump, so be it, looking for a higher probability play.

  • GoCougs

    What is resident.evil?

    Tried Fuji's QQQQ mid day today after I thought we were losing some steam, got stopped out AGAIN! I hate this market.

  • molecool

    It's not available YET – I have to still hook in the notification module but that should only take a few days. I think I could have it ready by next Monday.

  • molecool

    Just me, myself, and I. Having a lot of fun and it's getting only better. You might have come across the old expression: If you love what you do, you never work a day in your life.

  • GoCougs

    Sorry, just saw it. Can you give us any insight into how the resident.evil system is different? I can't really see paying for two systems unless there is some sort of transparency as to the differences.

  • molecool

    More details here:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=6629

    It's a blackbox trading system that will be available to evil.rat subscribers for free for three months. To learn more about evil.rat, which is also a blackbox click here:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=5718

    Welcome to the blog btw – haven't seen you here before.

  • molecool

    You won't have to pay for two – resident.evil will be free for evil.rat subscribers for three months. Both systems are based on proprietary strategies I developed in my evil lair – there's plenty of data on the evil.rat and I will fill you guys in on resident.evil (beyond the charts – I'll post its own page) in the next week or two.

  • lilme

    Wed 2:15 edt – FOMC minutes, I 98% predict that trading will be slow until them, 2% of some weird new development in swine flu…..

  • molecool

    Oh crap – how I dread FOMC days…

  • alphadriven

    You can set up a filter in gmail to forward all emails from “alerts@evilspeculator.com” to your iphones email address. For ATT, it is xxxxxxxxxx@@txt.att.net . You will get double alerts on evil.rat (One from Mole, one from gmail). However, this should ensure that you dont miss these alerts :)

  • Randy Harris

    GoCougs, as in Wazzu?

    Went to WSU undergrad myself.

  • Randy Harris

    Certainly one could do that, not exactly what I had in mind though. I get the emails just fine, but SMS type alerts are so much easier as they 'popup' in the iPhone so for example if you are already in iSwim and get an alert you don't have to go out to email and then back into iSwim to trade.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like Hang Sang is giving back all of its gains this morning.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHSI&t=1d

    http://screencast.com/t/B3mETi0NCIR ES testing support

  • arak0

    We seem to be on track with the Blue scenario which would put us at the onset of Minute {c} of Minor 4 of Intermediate (B) of Primary wave {2}. Our target remains the 895 – 800 region.

    Did you mean 795 to 800?

  • GoCougs

    mole,

    Been around for awhile…changed my avatar a bit ago. Don't comment as much as I should, I do alot of listening here.

  • GoCougs

    For sure Randy! I am back in Seattle now. Are you local?

  • molecool

    I should charge you rats the eHarmony fee.

  • molecool

    Oh crap – fat fingered. Thanks – I corrected it.

  • molecool

    Boy have we come a long way from the ole' tickertape.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Does anybody else get the feeling that we are
    trapped in the movie Groundhog Day?????????????

  • GMunni

    I found this to be a very interesting article. http://www.safehaven.com/article-13207.htm It helps to explain the extent the powers that be are going to to keep the wool pulled over the public's eyes.

  • Randy Harris

    Lived in Kirkland for about 5 years, now down in sunny Phoenix.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hang Sang at its lunch break. Boy did that tank from its highs today..

    http://screencast.com/t/U0Ef6JliR

  • Macrawn

    Hmmm text messaging would be a big help. I'd pay for the messaging. I have no clue how to get my iphone to buzz if it gets an email. It checks my gmail account max every 15 minutes so that won't work. Alphadriven says something about forwarding to the above address. Not sure what that is about. Plain email without my phone buzzing to alert me won't work.

  • salvadorveiga

    wooow look at futures !!! they're dropping real nicely !!

  • Autopsias

    One of the reasons could be this… http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUK

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Hearing 5/4 stress tests have been delayed cannot confirm as I'm not WSJ online sub.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

  • Autopsias

    Mole,

    Regarding the evil.resident as my other Portuguese rat compatriot I vote and campaign for the conservative version.

    Not sure I'm gonna have capital to mess around all your evil products, but as of now I bought everything you threw at us so…

    It's difficult for one to resist fine German engineering workmanship like yours!

    Anyway again thanks so much for the fine end of day posting, it does help a lot to “format” your head before market next day!

  • Duuuuuude

    Did Tim Geitner just this week not make an announcement that most banks had sufficient capital? Surely he wasn't lying…..tell me it ain't so!

  • jacksoo

    it's in the wording “most banks” – how many banks in the US – 2000? I guess “most”, small regional maybe, are OK but unfortunately the 19 that make up 68% of the mkt are shot to shit – I guess he forgot tot say that.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    CNBS just mentioned this. Found another article in the Guardian:

    Citigroup and Bank of America 'must raise billions in extra capital'
    http://tinyurl.com/cpbkda

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    I'm not the tin foil type, but I read something last night about several lost samples of a pandemic flu strain that were lost back in 2005. I researched this and found several articles, but the following was most compelling from America.Gov: http://tinyurl.com/clpozn

    “WHO also reports difficulty in tracking the samples. Some records indicated that samples had been sent to labs in Mexico and Lebanon, but the labs reported that they had never received the samples. Stohr said at his briefing that WHO will continue to seek an explanation for the discrepancy.”

    Was not able to find follow up that the lost samples were ever found.

  • Yux

    For your comment counter:
    “Mole are you really short gold – are you crazy?”

    Asch I know you are nimble.

    I put up comments on gdx earlier. My timeline has been off, but now I think we are nearing the time where gold will get silly. As miners are undervalued compared to gold price historically, I've started easing into long gdx positions.
    Considering easing into long positions in UNG as well – but I would love inputs on that.
    TBT has been good trading to me but I am going to try and time a longer term position.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101

    HOW DID THEY KNOW???????????????????????????????????????????????

    CHECK THE STORY DATE

    Checked page for authenticity

  • seawolves

    .5% west coast getting hit by quake, cover the bases

  • roncofooddehydrator

    FAZ is up around 10% right now premarket. Torn between selling the position I bought yesterday after the close or holding onto it. Since many two hour indicators only recently signalled buy, I think I'm going to hold. Depending on how the tape looks at 11:30, I may increase my position.

  • annamall

    Thanks B squirrel! Wow, I think that people that are poo pooing this may be surprised at how much it could impact the Global recovery!

    Now Hats off to Master Mole, he works tirelessly to give out such rich information, and anyone complaining is completely ridiculous (not many of those) for if we all had an exact crystal ball of what each market was going to do there would be no market. The markets (all of them) are constantly changing, breathing smiling and moaning. I think he has been pretty close to the mark on GOLD. (and that's a tough one) :-)

    Now as far as today I see the blue scenario playing out. (we shouldn't repeat yesterday) It's time for the bears to come out and play!

    Sorry your'e out of the game for the moment TW, but keep posting your thoughts please! :-)

  • katzo7

    Pretty soon, we will have the
    baby.rat, the white.rat, the good.rat, the not-so-good.rat, the three-legged.rat, the not-so-bad.rat, the youdirty.rat you, the Chinese.rat v.2 eggroll, the Japanese.rat-suschi.
    Then it will come out in colors, red, yellow, orange.
    Then it will come with a toaster.
    Then a bank.
    Then a bank and a toaster.
    Oh, and the:
    Three blind.rat (I know, I know, it's wrong)
    Chocolate flavored.rat
    Breakfast blend.rat
    The comrade.ratovitch (Russian version)
    The rat-on-a-stick.rat (yumm)
    The cajun.rat (southern variety)
    The salt-free.rat
    The rat and cat will live in peace.rat (thinking of a Beatles song here)
    The mall.rat (for CA girls, LIKEEEE, I need one of those!)
    The kosher.rat (good on bagels with a schmere)
    The terriorist.rat (rips your face off)
    The swineflu.rat (who will go out to spend all of that money?)
    The nuclearbomb.rat (the end)

  • C's & 3's

    I'm a pickled rat fan. Mole, joking aside this stuff is great. Thank You!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Now That's Fu@#$ng Funny!!!!!!!!!!!

    Not sure Mole will think so. However, ya reap what ya sow!!!!!!

    Here's a chance for him to show his fine sense of humor!!!!

    ROTFLMAO

    APMP Almost Peed My Pants!!!!!!!!!!!

  • annamall

    Hey Katzo
    So good to see you back! We missed you!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Oh God!!!

    I gotta go take a walk, I'm laughing so hard my eyes
    are watering and I can't even see the screen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Katzo, I Bow Before You Master!!!!!!!!

  • Fujisan

    Hi, Katzo, it's nice to see you!

  • http://jadedapprentice.com JadedApprentice

    You can always use the bump as an opportunity to hedge cheaply with FAS on a tight stop – worked nicely for me yesterday

  • Osso

    GLD…….87.42

  • katzo7

    I want to make this perfectly clear, the not-so-good.rat in no way impinges on the quality of mole's “product.” It is for those who cannot afford the more expensive brand.rat because they lost a lot of money playing options.

  • callie

    It looks like natural gas is definitely losing downside momentum, but no reversal in sight. May go to 3$ or even 2,5!

  • Fujisan

    Hey, I live in Redmond!

  • Fujisan

    Sorry to hear that. I got in at the end of the session, and I'm still expecting a pullback to 31.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Ok, I'm a little better now.

    I got an idea, How about in honor of Katzo's
    return the next one be named Katzo.rat???

  • katzo7

    Hahahahahaah.
    Bound to go down big time so short the indicator!

  • Duuuuuude

    H&S on 5 min spx should confirm this morning at the open.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZUOcYc2W

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Ok, I go for a walk and I still can't stop laughing!!!

    Can't say I didn't see this coming.

    Issaih Chapter 5 Verse 20!!!!!!!!!!

  • Lori

    Thanks for that, Jan

  • Keirsten

    Well, looky what the Rat drug in! 'Bout time you came back to Rat Hood. šŸ˜‰

  • isaiah64v4

    You really should consider “stand up” as a weekend job. I hear woman love comedians, especially strippers. Just a thought.

  • BalaB

    Hey Buddy….Nice to see you

  • BalaB

    This whole thing stinks….I don't trust it.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Molecool,

    Awesome work on charts. I have pretty much same targets with my trendlines. I will be updating my blog tonight.

    BTW did you see how they break the market in AH and make new highs in regular trading hours. Interesting. eh!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Waffle:

    Was wondering why you are leaving TOS?

    IB's margin policies can be a real bitch.

  • Squidman

    Yo Katzo–good to see you!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Compliance issue. I love TOS. I can't keep them tho. I have to switch to IB because of the company rule.

  • Squidman

    “breathing, smiling and moaning” What have you been up to?

  • Squidman

    Oh my, there is hope for me yet.

  • bleak987654

    If i sign up for evil. rat today, is it going to charge me $99 for the 2 days left in april, and $99 again at the start of may, or is it $99 for 30 days?

  • slartybardfast

    Welcome back stranger.

  • molecool

    You forgot son.of.rat :-)

  • LostIllini

    Sold my Spy puts for a small gain this morning, I may rebuy them after the gap fill.

  • molecool

    It goes 30 days, no matter when you sign up. The only exception is February 30th – if you sign up on that day you'll get a lifetime membership for free.

  • standard_and_poor

    Still expecting more downside, staying short!

  • standard_and_poor

    Is rat.bastard one of the flavors.

  • molecool

    -. . .– / .–. — … –

  • molecool

    fat.bastard is the next one I consider :-)

  • annamall

    me too! Did buy back NQ (I was short from yesterday) took profits and look for a better entry point.

  • molecool

    Maybe once a few Million people die from their fucking flu strain they start to look a bit harder.

    My dad always used to tell me: I'm not afraid of violent people – I'm afraid of dumb people.

    So true…

  • molecool

    Thanks bud – just make sure your spaghetti is al dente and you should be okay :-)

  • isaiah64v4

    yux
    saw this posted about UNG on another blog by someone in the natural gas biz.

    “We are at 1.74 TCF in storage, about 25% above the 5 year average and 0.5 TCF greater than last year. Additionally, we are hitting the warm summer months where NG will be continueing to build inventory. The max inventory in the US is about 4 tcf and LNG cargoes have little place else to go (Thus increaseing inventory). By Sept/Oct we will be bursting at the seams with NG. I would stay far away from it if I were you. This week alone we had a build of 46 bcf, if you calculate that we have about 30 weeks until we start drawing again and the average build is about 65 bscf/week or more, we will pushing the 4 TCF range. Additionally, once you get to about 3.5 tcf in storage, it is really hard to find places for the last 0.5 tcf. At this point they will be giving gas away. If I were you I would wait until October, then make a decision in regards to gas, until then stay away”

  • standard_and_poor

    Sign me up, especially if it raps out trade signals.

  • standard_and_poor

    NQ has been acting liking a different animal. Back in March I stated techs and Nasdaq would lead the rally, but didn't think it would be this strong. I'm mostly in XLF related products which are considerably weaker than SPX.

  • Yux

    Remember the Blog name?

    read elsewhere that we are around production balance or even below balance. Number of rigs in operation has more than halved in a year. Also there is a bigger divergence between gas prices and price of other energy sources (these correlations drew my attention when scanning commodities data). After studying the charts I also found that Natural Gas seems to, in some degree, trail oil – perhaps giving the opportunity to enter longs when oil starts moving up.

  • annamall

    :-) only very good things Squidman!

  • isaiah64v4

    ..

  • isaiah64v4

    Yux

    Here you go…

    http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commenta

    if you search the entire day worth of post you will find a lot of posts about buying or not buying UNG. I played it for a small profit around 14.9 a week or two ago. It goes up for a little while then continues downward.

    Also if you have never played UNG before be prepare for some crazy tax filings [Sch K if you are a US citizen]. Plus they don't send out the form until late March so you have to hold off on filing until then. Hope this helps.

  • Yux

    Thanx

    No – I've never played UNG for real but I have had it under observation and traded it in my practice account. As I'm not an US-citizen I luckily just have to deal with Scandinavian tax and believe it or not, everything normally gets filled out automatically (and I pay for someone to check it up). But thanks for the heads up.

  • alphadriven

    Randy and Macrawn,

    If you use gmail, go into settings at the top, then select forwarding, next select “create a filter”. In the “from” box, list “alerts@evilspeculator.com”. Click next. In the Forward it to box, list xxxxxxxxxx@txt.att.net. Insert your number in place of the xxx's. Now, whenever Mole sends you an alert, gmail will send it to you in the form of a txt message. You will get the popup on your iphone. Also, if your phone is jailbroken, you can get reminders to a missed txt message.

  • alphadriven

    Randy and Macrawn,

    If you use gmail, go into settings at the top, then select forwarding, next select “create a filter”. In the “from” box, list “alerts@evilspeculator.com”. Click next. In the Forward it to box, list xxxxxxxxxx@txt.att.net. Insert your number in place of the xxx's. Now, whenever Mole sends you an alert, gmail will send it to you in the form of a txt message. You will get the popup on your iphone. Also, if your phone is jailbroken, you can get reminders to a missed txt message.