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Monkey Business
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Monkey Business

by The MoleJuly 11, 2012

As you guys have been unseasonably prolific on the comments side I gather that I am not the only one who’s a tad suspicious about today’s gyrations (or yesterday’s for that matter). Let’s see what we got:

The Zero Lite has gone completely flat – and sometimes that happens just before a little surprise move. Which direction? Well, I have not the slightest clue but fortunately we do have the luxury of a bi-directional setup:

As you may have guessed already I am talking about a potential inside day. Not valid unless we close on the inside of yesterday’s candle. The odds are good for that but of course we would all prefer to keep today’s range intact. If you are new here and don’t know how to trade an inside day then I suggest you go and check out our cheat sheet.

UPDATE 2:20pm EDT: Crap – we took out yesterday’s lows so the ID setup is DEAD. Sorry guys… still the continued lack of a Zero Lite signal is rather suspicious.

I would also like to point out an interesting formation on the VIX – apparently we keep testing the 25-day SMA but thus far it has been holding up, despite the fact that it’s been dropping rapidly. Food for thought and although no guarantee of more upside (on the equities side) I think keeping an eye on this may be good medicine. If the VIX pushes through then it would change the dynamics considerably. Most likely it would completely take out my Full Monty setup I covered last Sunday and it would also kill the bullish PO on our P&F. So I guess what happens with that ID setup on the spoos may have some rather profound implications on what happens next.

I don’t have much appetite for new setups until we see a bit more directional tape – so let’s just revisit whatever remains of yesterday’s list of victims:

EUR/CAD – I’m short but am not loving it. Have moved my stop down to just above today’s highs.

AUD/JPY – I got stopped out and am now long with a stop below 81.25 (the NLSL). Could this pair be leading equities again?

Ditto on AUD/USD.

Copper – that was a nice clean entry yesterday – just what the doctor ordered. I hope you picked up your prescription.

Natgas tried to throw us off the horse but it wasn’t too convincing. I’m long and my stop is below today’s lows.

Have fun and keep it frosty – don’t take on too much risk as things are a bit whippy here – it’s too easy to get emotional and miss the bus altogether.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ronebadger

    Took NG yesterday, happy today, thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Reload the post – the ID setup is DEAD.

  • ronebadger

    I forgot to mention…someone (another blog) always mentioned that the first move on a Fed day/announcement is usually the wrong one.  So, today’s 2PM dip, might bounce the other way….still watching

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure I have reliable stats on that – I have heard the same but cannot back it up with facts. 

  • AMCabrera

    bingo bango. Very good post. It is what we needed for sure. Still waiting in tree stand myself.

  • AMCabrera

    well NM USD/NOK triggered again..Like I said I was prepared for this.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    Hey that was me last week on Friday.

  • Tronacate

    This is getting fugly….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    going for a SPY gap close I suppose.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    vix daily macd looking to cross possitive.  

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c2f3aae4-fce6-49f5-95ba-31f82d24ad86/2012-07-11_1432.png
    At the end of this oval boys. Tightening my stop for USD/NOK (long) stop at 6.1000

  • Skynard

    ZL, AUDJPY not buying it. Loaded back up /ES long.

  • gsavli

    nasdaq has been insiduously selling off these last 4 days. quietly, amidst AUD/JPY, HG, DAX shenanigans it went on relentlesly. These kind of moves often turn out to be the beggining of something more nasty.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    dollar is breaking out will see if confirmed.

  • Fibz

    corn finally coming back to reality.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In response to yours in the previous thread: Well, if you took care of it then I assume you have access – just was checking.

  • DarthTrader

    7/11/2012

    Dear Diary

    Still no word from Publisher’s Clearinghouse . . .

  • MrMargin

    Hourly ZL looks divergent. As long as the 50d holds, this might be a bottom, but /ES needs to recapture the 25d at 1340.

  • Schwerepunkt

    So far, we have an ID on the VIX.

  • Skynard

    Whoa, there’s the Marines:)

  • Fibz

    Looks like things are heating up in Madrid.

  • ronebadger

     like what?

  • newbfxtrader

    you know it!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Like miners and friends striking – things got bloody.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I was excited about yesterdays downdraft because I had an idea of where it was going.
    today I was skeptical as a busted tech investor in 2001.
    and here’s why:

    [/ES]http://s8.postimage.org/68vpl2845/temp2.png 

    having fib fans of both bull and bear come together an act as support (region).
    The real WTF moment is when both fan lines were broken with a large candle, and then reversed.
    some day I’ll be the guy on the other side of that trade.  till then, watch & learn.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I thought the bottle-rocket launchers were pretty cool.

  • Skynard

    Noticed that trendline break as well, scaring the children maybe:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb


    Over 8,000 coal miners have been on strike since the end of May fighting against the government decision to cut agreed subsidies to the industry by 63%. Their jobs and the future of another 30,000 jobs are at stake. 

    good thing the Spain gov’t can’t kick’m out and hire 30,000 Chinese who’d love to do the job.
    or can they?

  • supervilin

    Hey guys, who wants and inside day marking code for TOS? (modified from AMC’s NR7 code):
    Marking them permanently makes it easy to backtest on any instrument..

    plot Data = close;
    def range = high – low;
    def na=double.nan;
    def plotter=high+range*0.5;
    def ID = (high = low[1]);
    plot InsDay = if ID then plotter else na;
    InsDay.SetDefaultColor(Color.PLUM);
    InsDay.setstyle(curve.points);
    InsDay.setlineWeight(4);

    please see how it looks on /CL (NR7 is yellow and ID is shown by purple dots)

  • supervilin

    The only thing I would like to fix is that it would only plot after the close of the day. Any input on this would be welcomed!

  • Th3_ACist

    Whats the blue line?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    Man wild, GG is down -10% today.  GG is the leader of the miners and weighed heavy on PM indexes.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    HUI weekly macd looking to cross down with daily macd expanding down.  looks like a test of 375 is in the cards.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$HUI

  • supervilin

    25 SMA with bollinger bands (just like in Mole’s charts)

  • Skynard

    Is that all of the code? Using TOS

  • Fibz

    Coal miners striking is a sign of a (near) bottom in coal imo. Their sentiment is like someone selling at the bottom, throwing in the towel.

  • Skynard

    Trying to figure out why the blue numerical line is jagged, any ideas?

  • Skynard

    Same here?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    gold is dead.  did I not make that clear?
    now kneel before my awesomeness.

  • newbfxtrader

    Strong words! Maybe I should buy some more …

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it was tongue in cheek, tempting hell of a long spec eh?

  • supervilin

    finally got your question.. 🙂 

    the blue line is just closes, it is not necessary to plot, just go to studies and uncheck “plot study”

    the yellow is another indicator – NR7, which I got from AMC (see his comment in the lastpost)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yep.
    went through something similar.  83 was bottom, or was it 81?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_Copper_Mine_Strike_of_1983 

  • supervilin

    uncheck “plot study” in settings

  • Skynard

    If I un-check either “show plot” or “show study” under options it is removed completely. What’s the yellow line

  • supervilin

    have to uncheck “show plot” but only under the data tab (see image)

  • supervilin

    you mean yellow dots in my chart? – NR7 indicator from AMC, he gave me the code today (see previous post comments)

  • Skynard

    Got it, AMC has the NR7 from previous post. Thanks a bunch!

  • Skynard

    The yellow line in the center?

  • Th3_ACist

    Copy that, thanks!

  • supervilin

    Aaa.. its a 5d MA, refferd to as acceleration line by fearless in his trend trading 101 post series 😉

  • Skynard

    Ah, yes. Very good!

  • thepercolator

    John Doody of Gold Stock Analyst (GSA) who’s got a real good audited track record issued a sell on GG which was one of their holdings.

    From GSA: “GSA has been watching GG closely after 1Q12 issues at flagship Red Lake mine. Co. announced continued challenges at Red Lake last evening, so cut full year 2012 total production forecast from 2.6 mil oz to 2.4 mil oz and raised net cash costs to $325/oz from $265/oz. GG trades at rich 8.4X 2012 OCF multiple vs peers NEM 4.6X and ABX 4.0X. GSA sees Goldcorp’s production growth slowing due aging Red Lake, so high multiple could be cut to match peers.”

    http://www.goldstockanalyst.com

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    AUD employment numbers @ 9:30. You decide:)

    Went looooooooong!

  • Skynard

    Should be a biggy, Watch out Bucky!

  • newbfxtrader

    Ouch!

  • Skynard

    Those numbers aren’t bad, could see it bought up:)

    Edit: US still putting up numbers near 400k.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. Would have been nice to be on the right side!

  • finansreven

    Well, well. That move took out my profit in both AUDUSD and AUDJPY.

    Should have learned to not have positions on those stop hunting news times.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah Aussie news moves more than 50 pips. You have to be on guard.

  • Skynard

    The night is young:0

  • newbfxtrader

    Population size is probably different. I think for Australia those are bad numbers.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    5 minutes doesn’t make a trend?
    he he.

  • Skynard

    /ES buyback @ 1334 support:)

    AUDJPY SL @ 81

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    for those bears on the AUDJPY, make the coin while you can.
    potential Aug T in the waiting.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=29696#comment-576534815

  • Skynard

    LOL! Remember that.

  • Skynard

    YES, 88!

  • Skynard

    Glutton for punishment, S /DX @ 83.7

  • thepercolator

    ID on both /GCQ & /SIU 

  • Skynard

    Out of /ZS, div setting up. Retest and wait:)

  • gsavli

    OK, after this second move, AUD/JPY pair looks as if it wants to go down, rather than up.

  • Fibz

    Land under Tokyo’s Imperial Palace was worth more than all of the real estate in California during the property bubble in 1980. All of that credit creation following the crash has gotten them nowhere in the 20-30 years following. US real estate market will experience something similar imo.

  • neowave

    AMC

    which station do you use  for your technical analysis
    OANDA provides metatrader 4… but I am not really happy with it
    are there any other free better stations?

  • DarthTrader

    US Dollar /DX showing negative RSI divergence on the Hourly from last Friday’s High to now.  And on the Daily from May16th to now.

    Also /SI at 26.50 area sets up an inverse H&S

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    feels like a capitulation move setting up in USDX could be a classic FALSE break higher..if no follow through sell dollar

  • Skynard

    Yep, definately at a point of inflection with the huge falling wedges on /SI & GC. Took a long on /SI with minimal risk:)

  • AMCabrera

    TOS is the only other one I use for TA. 

  • AMCabrera

    OK USD/NOK long working out so far. Setting sell order right below my stop of 6.1000.

  • neowave

     at the risk of sounding stupid

    but TOS stands for?
    Do you have a link maybe?

    thanks man

  • AMCabrera

    @neowave. Sorry. ThinkorSwim.

  • AMCabrera
  • neowave

     I found think or swim… probably it’s that one
    but not for free I guess

  • AMCabrera

    well its not Oanda free 😉 but you could open an account. You could also get live account without depositing money too I think.

  • AMCabrera

    Try opening account right now. It only takes a few minutes. Just make sure you get live access and not demo. EDIT: Yup just confirmed my wife does not have money in her account and it is live. It has been a long time since it was open. Just make sure you opening a normal account not just for paper trading.

  • Skynard

    Still S /DX, USD initial claims up next. 350k, that should do it:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Anybody looking at FCX as a buy? Getting cheap again. Chart looks like a [speculative] buy with tight stop at 31.15. CLF worth a look as well with stop at the obvious support.

  • stovis

    Bad news is bad news and good news is bad news.

  • neowave

    AG is dipping below 26.5

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    let’s see if it keeps going.
    if a T-post low is violated, I paint the right side blue and look for that to be a low point in time.
    (3:30)
    http://s12.postimage.org/5nin1me9p/temp1.png 
    -DG

  • Skynard

    Nice little run on the DXY, pop and drop:)

  • stovis

     Not much drop.

  • AMCabrera

    stop on USD/NOK is now at 6.1300 and sell order right under.

  • Skynard

    Long /ES 1322.75, tight FN stop:)

  • AMCabrera

    IF DA pair stops falling you might be sitting real pretty.

  • MrMargin

    This is not looking good.

  • AMCabrera

    mmm for a day trader that has gone long today yes but overall we are still knee deep in limbo

  • Skynard

    Tiny little div, LOL

  • saltwaterdog

    May change in the final 15min of the Trend Day Signal, but so far we’re tracking at 97% below the zero line, which is a High Prob Downtrend Day.  

  • Skynard

    Wait for it, not much on the ZL.

  • MrMargin

    Well, we lost the 50d SMA and now there’s really nothing to stop us from dropping to 1307. Look at the P&F chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PGUBDANRBO%5BPB20!A%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!5.0!!2!20]&pref=G

    If we break that diagonal, things will look bleak.

  • Skynard

    Wow, guess that was from an ants perspective. Much better Mole! There it is:)

  • Skynard

    Got it on the hourly now, see if it plays out:)

  • StrikeFirst

    We broke below the weekly S2 pivot level at 1323.83 on the /es.

    Very significant.(It should have held.)

  • Skynard

    Looks like it is fighting with it now, below 1320 and going short:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Sfsg
    Some early morning shorts stopped out

  • gsavli

     look at AUD/JPY – absolutely no bid all day.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Must be a trend day . . . 

  • Skynard

    Hum, interesting TDA for sure!

  • gsavli

    and you probably all saw this and i am just showing the obvious, but anyway – ES, falling bellow supporting trendline, wedge falling appart.

  • MrMargin

    PMs at the lower boundaries of their respective ranges. SI below 26 would be huge.

  • ronebadger

    NG   WTF??!?

  • saltwaterdog

    inventory data released at 1030a EST…. big build

  • Skynard

    Wicked move there, never overstay your welcome:)

  • ronebadger

    sold EOD yesterday, nibbled on the dip just now…for a quickie

  • AMCabrera

    USD/NOK has been stopped out (long) no loss. Almost triggered sell order.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    In regards to June 29th –
    ..
    after the adrenaline wears off, and the bulls look around, there is still two months of Summer left.

    teehee!

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=29604#comment-571723512

  • AMCabrera

    Yes. First lets see if we can ever get past limbo this month.

  • Skynard

    Nice!

  • Skynard

    Buying /GC here as well, do not think that the market want’s it to drop off a cliff:)

  • ridingwaves

    The big boys are really trying to get weak hands out of ARNA..Great scaling in buy down here in case they drive it down further..IF VVUS doesn’t get FDA approval next week. It could double…and similar to QCOR in 2 years could be a $50.00 stock if sales ramp..and their are plenty of obese people..Scalping higher moves and holding long term core is my play..DD required..

  • Schwerepunkt

    Treasury selling a bunch of crap. Proceeds will make their way into the market one way or another . . . [$95 billion worth]

  • StrikeFirst

    ..

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    looks like vix daily will have the confirmation of the macd possitive cross today….. unless there is shanegans that is

  • Joe_Jones

    Good morning rats. Hope you have been banking coins in this whipsaw of a market.
    I’ve been applying some soothing ointment to my stink hole for the last two weeks trying to recover from the ass beating I took by going short before the mother of all ramp at the end of June. I felt like the big fat black dude in Pulp Fiction that got raped medieval style. Anyway, in spite of all the bullishness and calls for new highs, I still held to my shorts, leaving the cheese crumbles on the trap for braver and faster traders. I was not feeling like chiming in with my bearishness as I didn’t want to spoil the party for the long minded rats, and my rectum was still sore from being wrong (or premature). It took two weeks of limbo (and distribution to bigger fools) but I’ve finally broke even from my misadventure. 🙂 Call me lucky but it feels damn good right now. Anyhow, this teaches me a lesson in humility and that overconfidence is  (almost) always wrong in trading.

    For the time being, I see more downside to come as we are below the volume hole and we haven’t seen any exhaustion selling yet.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    dow daily macd neg cross confirmed….

  • Schwerepunkt

    Make sure you put your stop in at B/E or better. Anyhow, I think support is busted.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Support is simply lost, IMO. 

  • BobbyLow

    Glad to see that you were able to recover Joe.  

    The big question is what do you do if your position goes sour again and how long do you hold on to it this time?

    Position Bias is a Capital Killer and I have “been there and done that”.  

    Stops are there for 3 Very Important Reasons,  Capital Preservation, Capital Preservation, and Capital Preservation.

    Just my 2 Cents.   🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    You forgot preserving one’s sanity.

  • Skynard

    Get it, there goes buck:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Hi BobbyLow. Thanks for reminding me the rule no.1. Really glad to see you back. We miss your insightful thoughts over here.    

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Joe.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    head fake.
    UUP back to 23.03

  • stovis

    Did you have a top the first time around, or did you just ride it up and back down?

  • Fearless

     Skynard, did you buy /SI this morning?

  • ibtrader

    sold nat gas, nice spike!

  • gsavli

    yep. ES might make a retest, at around 1338. If that fails, watch out below.

  • ridingwaves

    last 2 or 3 Thursday build reports it spikes down hard then turns and just take a rocket higher…wild stuff..

  • Skynard

    Bought /SI & /GC when they tested the lower boundry.

  • Tronacate

    Update on my positions…..l DX 83.665     l soybeans 15.3338     l ZB 150.31   s gold  1594

  • Joe_Jones

    Against all sound trading rules, I rode it up and back down. I was very close to my uncle point though. 

  • Fibz

    Bill Gross shares your sentiment on Twitter: “Deleveraging speeding up — risk assets headed down — Days of wine and roses are no more.”

  • Fearless

    They might be the trade of your life time, if support holds on the triangles. If my thesis is correct, we are about to enter PM bubble manic phase beginning in a few months.

  • Tronacate

    Deleveraging is the only way out of these overcomplicated financial instruments……..too complex

  • Schwerepunkt

    Even though he is a Twit, he is Bill Effing Gross, the “Bond King.” Bond guys are generally smartest guys in the room (so it is said).

  • Schwerepunkt

    Record low rate on 30-year bond auction. 

  • AMCabrera

    USD/NOK short was triggered a while ago. My EUR/USD short was already popped SO all that is left is a buy order at 1.2230 and  1.2100

  • MrMargin

    In retrospect, buying at LOD with stop below 26 would’ve been a great trade. Low prob. but low risk. A close below 27.04 would give us a weekly RTV buy setup

  • ridingwaves

    interesting, I have heard similar thesis in the websphere…

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX now flat, on verge of going red. 

  • badflightrisk

    Based on Mr VIX not many believers this is headed down for very long. Maybe Fearless’s post went viral.

  • ibtrader

    indeed wild. looks like it’s not done. 5 min triangle formation…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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