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More Dollars Into The Shredder
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More Dollars Into The Shredder

by The MoleJuly 14, 2017

It’s going to be a wild Friday it seems. Retail sales and CPI data disappointed earlier this morning, causing yields and the U.S. Dollar to head straight for the basement while gold of course is heading higher. I guess gold could be trusted after all, but hindsight is always 20/20 and you never know how the numbers get shuffled. Of course the NQ is soaring as I’m typing this as bad news is good for equities – back to the old QE script I take it. Unfortunately my long term outlook on not seeing a meaningful interest hike anytime this decade seems to be playing out as feared. Or as the saying goes: Don’t try to bullshit a bullshitter 

2017-07-14_volume_profile

The S&P 500 futures meanwhile are approaching low oxygen altitudes as shown on our volume profile chart. However given all that exuberance I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a ramp into new virgin territory today before the bell.

2017-07-14_NYSE_volume

NYSE volume was remarkably low yesterday and with many participants on vacation banging the tape is even easier. Then again the bots don’t take vacations, do they? Either way if you are sitting on a winning campaign then you may want to take at least partial profits near the closing bell today. An empty bus doesn’t just move faster it also turns easier.

2017-07-14_VIX

The VIX may drop back into single digits by the EOS which may lead to very exciting entry opportunities in the coming weeks. At minimum buying protection here is dirt cheap and as I’ve shown on various occasions, a VIX repeatedly dipping into single digits over a period of several weeks does lead to very ‘interesting’ tape further down the line. As a matter of fact I’m currently working on a pertinent strategy which exploits IV divergences.

2017-07-14_gold_usdjpy

Gold/Yen (the latter inverse) – unfortunately catching that one is almost impossible unless you accepted a significant risk and entered yesterday. At least for now it seems the gold bugs are off the hook. And not a day too soon as those lower BBs on the daily and weekly panels started to look rather foreboding [see previous post].

2017-07-14_cable_update

Fortunately it turns out that I am not completely useless as that cable entry I posted yesterday (to the subs) is off to the races. And we barely got in as I was waiting for a quick drop toward 1.292. I’m now moving my stop to break/even and suggest you do the same if you took this one. Yes, a bit above b/e is okay but we want to give this one a lot of space to run as it just breached several daily NLBLs, thus good times could be ahead as there’s nothing but air above on the daily and weekly panels.

ayingerd

It’s Friday and you know where to find me. Enjoy your weekend – prost!!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BobbyLow

    “I guess gold could be trusted after all, but hindsight is always 20/20 and you never know how the numbers get shuffled.”

    That’s for sure. Got stopped on my short for a loss. Every once in a while shit happens. It’s part of the process. Fortunately my previous short was profitable. Going to see if this morning’s move holds up. If it does, I’ll probably go long.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, it is sometimes brutal that way against the shorter term models. Today smacked-up against similar resistance objective in my model as the day before yesterday, but today exceeded another models resistance….that important to me, Even if we close off this mornings high still within about 1 ADTR, I may renter long miners today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    metals up, paper down. same story different month. OTOH, seeing young babes playing vollyball on the beach hasn’t got old, yet. ?

  • ridingwaves

    If it gets old, start searching for gold in the desert….it will become new again…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Post a chart, please….uh, I mean … post photos, please…

  • OJuice

    I guess the moral of the story is should have bought the Trump Jr. “Fake News” ahead of the Yellen lullaby. C’est la vie.

  • ridingwaves

    SPY can’t seem to crack new high….and I can’t figure what sector is holding SPX up right now..XLF has weakened but the chart looks strong…I would love to see a touch of the 100-50sma area near 24.10 for better ramp…

  • OJuice

    XLF does look strong. I would wager too much so to make it back to 24.10.

    I don’t know about sector specifics. Just that risk appears to be all the way back on post Yellen and volatility has been nuked.

  • Julie

    BAC I posted a target 24.00 and covered the remaining 1/2 short position this a.m Not going long the Banks CAT not a short yet
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    can’t scare Julie away. membership is dropping. ?

  • Julie

    What I have noticed … The Thursday before OPEX week can be a headfake and this did not happen yedterday.Watching SPX this next week (1) 2475 (2) 2516
    Disclosure Now Flat
    Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SQQQ Yesterday 30 and 10 min charts a consolidation to go lower. Two supports 29.42 and 28.76 Today’s low 29.35 and so far holding 29.42 support SQQQ is oversold now with 60 min MACD 5,34,5 and 60 min RSI positive divergences. IMO an entry would be a bullish close above the 60 min 8 ema along with the 60 min MACD bullish signal line cross Yesterday SQQQ needed a bullish close above 30.12 which did not occur.
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie

    BKX a strong bounce this a.m. off it’s 21 ema ; SOX is up along with USO … XLE imo is setting up for a short i.e. going up into an (1) upper down trend line (2) the lower boundary of the daily ichimoku cloud (3) decling 55 ema .Overbought
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Bahaha. Is that a rock, a cloud, or a giant piece of shit?

  • ridingwaves

    new SPY high
    sending my love to Janet…..

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie

    XLE up volume is diminishing …. I am stating to drool ,,,,
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SQQQ asI type the hourly now below 29.42 support …. I like the 60 min 8 ema and 60 min MACD 5,34,5 as a filter …. Saved me many times from bottom picking … I learned that one the hard way ….. Also use Daily Chart the 5 ema as a filter Again Have A Great Weekend ….
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GREED IS GOOD (GIG) Thanks for informing me of this site. The guys are great here !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    isn’t this splitting next week….stay away from this, unless Trump blows up Kim in his coming out party….

    ruh oohhh

    I Am Positioned Aggressively for a Stock Market Correction,’ Says Doug Kass

    •June 11, 2017

  • Mark Shinnick

    Oh yeah…that guy…the history revisionist who cancels out blogger accounts who point out what he really said and did.

  • Julie

    Riding waves There is a guy in Jackson Hole WY named J Carlo Cannell …. A great short seller … My husband is an excellent shorty too …
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I hope he fishes the nearby rivers and lakes….
    I don’t know if your husband approves of this message….

  • ridingwaves

    right now he is working on a Kasserole and the oven is way too hot….

  • Julie

    Clarification The above targets are not exactly for next week but targets for a sizeable corection to commence
    JULIE

  • Julie

    He is fishing now … The Wilson River in Oregon for sea run cutthroats Lol !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SQQQ There is a shelf resistance approx 29.65 – 29.69 matching the 60 min 8 ema
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Beginning to really tighten the tna stop.

  • Julie

    Guys this is what I gonna be doing …. SPX 60 min and daily overbought …. 60 min chart a pullback to the rising baseline ichimoku cloud or 60 min 21 ema … Then go long … Will post when I pull the trigger
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Careful – the tape can often keep running in ‘overbought’ conditions.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What a tight upper range so far today.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’m placing a small wager against XLF now. Tight stop, but might add to it later. Just going to step away for awhile and come back later to see what happens.

  • Julie

    Yes indeed Sir Mole Overbought can become more overbought … Following EXAS on a possible stall at 39 resistance … Needs more volume on an attempted breakout … Strong stock and looking for a pullback to approx 35.62. MOLE thanks for everything … The troll will probably find out that I am here and may infiltrate … He is descipable … Thanks Again Mole
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    1/2 hour or so………..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Trolls get insta-banned, so no worries.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Is that Tim Knight?? Bwwuuaaaahhaaaaahaaaaaa!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners, very tight.

  • Mark Shinnick

    She might as well be Yellen…”lifetimes” amazing.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Raising stop.

  • Julie

    USO Overbought daily and 60 min.Going up into strong resistance 9.61 and it’s declining 55 ema on lower volume…. May pull the trigger on a short probe EOD or Again my filter is a bearish close below the 60 min 8 ema along with a MACD bearish signal line cross … As I type a test of the lower trend line on the 10 min chart drawn from the lows of 7/11 and 7/12 The 60 min 8 ema is approximate with the 10 min .55 ema and upper boundary of the 10 min ichimoku cloud.Will post if I pull the trigger ….. Short probe only … Would like also 5 min chart a break of the lower trend line with a momentum kickoff and then short the bounce to a lower high. Again will post if I pull the trigger on a short probe … Dont really like holding a short over the weekend but a small probe only
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Strategy for /CL I’m working with next week and beyond.

    Based on Daily and PnF, resistance around 48-49 seems reasonable if the move can continue up. Personally if we see those prices I’ll be looking for /CL to roll over and for a short opportunity.

    On the downside, PnF target of 41 hasnt been reached yet. And on the longer term view, the COT isn’t as bearish as at other major lows from the last 2 years. This would lead me to believe that a little head dip under 40 might be a possibility. Perhaps in the fall/winter.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86bed5086340de8717c3f085e13e8a30b66a4f72f3d1f04b718c5e517fb701d9.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec57709ee144ce3f29f25094019e4b45ccdf023426b4c702c98951c7e945336d.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c4c6562539394c1bedc287d248f399430534f786e5188370f7b1522891b8102.png

  • Julie

    Thank You
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Julie, can you please encompass your trades and comments on the same string or a couple based on trade, sector etc, so not clutter the board and others can close string to clean up post messages. Please, no more talk of trolls either, it usually attracts them…

    not trying to be an ass, its good to see fresh ideas…but in more consolidated format…
    and to be honest, I can’t keep up with all your setups

  • Julie

    You Bet
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Keep raising stop.

  • ridingwaves

    if their going to keep knocking the dollar down, no reason that Miners shouldn’t keep going up
    RIC chart starting to shape up…

  • Mark Shinnick

    I would just add how limited I really am in keeping a whole bunch of variables in mind for just my own models….while gradually getting impressions over time about everyone else’s.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, well taken. Still ok w CYTR?

  • ridingwaves

    yes, my stop is .520
    someone is accumulating ACRX here…buying in 2.20-2.45 range… a bit early for bigger move and resistance at 3.05 area.
    I’m scaling in

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flat.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reshort

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stopped, and reverse to tza.

  • Ronebadger

    Good boy…keep it up

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, had a 15.6 zone tza objective, rules are rules :/

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And a chart would be nice … ahem…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t see a problem – at least someone is participating and putting in the work. That’s 90% of the battle and I wish more people here would be this committed. Thus far I’m very impressed by her but we need to cure her of her wave wanking affliction 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice work!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Great… going home short miners, but small size,….just need some North Korea or something :/

  • Julie

    SPX The gap up on Wednesday above the downtrend line connecting the highs of 6/19 and 6/26 caught me by surprise, Then walking up the daily upper bol band and the 60 min 8 ema .. Wow .. Today’s move above 2454 was the magic number inducing shortcovering imo as evidenced by the low volume SPY. Per previous post wanting a pullback to the 60 min 21 ema or 60 min baseline ichimoku cloud for a long entry and will post when I pull the trigger.

    Sorry everyone for not being able to post charts … I know how beneficial they are as a picture is worth a 1000 words. Our daughter is coming home this weekend and will show me how. I will also be more concise and not clutter this great site and board
    Currently flat and waiting to pull the trigger long SPX ; Short XLE or USO ; Short CAT ; Long EXAS

    Thank You and Everyone Have A Great weekend
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    its not a problem, its just too many setups on the filters utilized without the charts, she can move thru a thread fast that’s for sure, charts would better explain…keeping stuff in threads just helps a lot….

    I’ll be laying low anyways so maybe its best to open up more threads…
    work is about to get busy for 6 mos+….More night dropping in from here on out…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just take a pen and draw on your screen – it will magically appear here.

    (I’m joking – don’t do that! 😉

  • Ag Coyote

    So that’s where Julie went. ;))

  • Ag Coyote
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of my favorite symbols.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you’re that supposed troll she complained about?

  • Julie

    No Mole He is a good guy. Monday probably in the evening I will post two easily understandable charts for short term trading that I am sure the members will like. I have done very well trading these charts.
    JULIE

  • Ag Coyote

    “Toll” is putting it lightly. Not me, but I can have a wry sense of humor. We refer to said troll as “vitreolic condescending sociopath with Asperger’s and OCD” on a good day.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Incredibly strong edges with this symbol, unique in all of finance.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Then he’s welcome here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Bitcoin breakdown,
    so glad I didn’t chase it.

    The question remains..“now what?”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/997622969ebb7a5c624aceeb1527e39ec52d7e6583074ce49feb0f703b746421.png
    -HeisenGerb

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    It might not make it there, needs to get thru this congestion here…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc8cdd4651c0c1d95a08b57a7be0b4cf24ba6fc3c6eacf6a49222ff06aa1912d.png

  • OJuice

    Yes could easily come up well short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III