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Moronic Maddening Monday
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Moronic Maddening Monday

by MoleSeptember 21, 2009

Anna here….

Well I mentioned this morning, that the gap down would be filled today and no suprise there. I mentioned if you were short this morning, please take profits as nothing has changed! The bulls buying on every dip, they have the cash the bears don’t have.

I must say I am so IMPRESSED with you guys that you stayed with the blog and kept posting today, over on Slope of Hope, they were discussing $100,000 cars. huh??  😉

If you followed Zero Lite it lead you exactly where you needed to be. Below on the graph you can see where it started up to fill the gap.

The $DXY had an ugly “UP” day, gave back allot of it’s gains early on. The EUR/USD is in Wave 4 correction before Wave 5 to new highs. Which in my opinion will be a short shallow correction. Gold retraced much of it’s early morning loss and was down only slightly. I will say again that I am very bullish on GLD. It has clearly broken out of a bullish triangle.

you guys were awesome today and couldn’t have done a better job. :)

Geronimo had a fairly good day and I love it!

Geronimo/ES: +3 Points

2 Winning trades, 1 loss for 2 Points.


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • bboplive

    Good job Anna. vous êtes le meilleur!

  • bergs

    Alphahorn, Here is my last look in case you missed it earlier. Such a boring day.

    http://screencast.com/t/NP31rAQ7Cign

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ahhhhh bblplive..merci beaucoup :-)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks bergs,

  • standard_and_poor

    Woohoo almost 4 points in the red – I'm partying. Pass the Bulls Blood vino
    tinto. ; )

  • BaldEagle

    Let's be honest, it is not bulls buying at this juncture. It is primary dealers and HFT machines with cash infusions.

  • stxinon

    Even on the down day,
    Falling VIX.
    Bears writing haikus.

  • PeterK80

    Anna, you and Keirsten have been great additions to this blog as well as many others that post here. Thanks for your continued good work.

    In regards to the market, I have a hard time seeing us go down now before the fed meeting… the bears had their chance again and might have to wait through more upside before we see a retracement (if we ever see one! ). Any thoughts?

  • stxinon

    I still remembered days when you could short S&P for 100 points in 2 days….
    after doing that trading on days like today is a punishment of karma…..

  • grednfer

    I don't trust the USD up move….the wedgie is too perfect…….somebody is planning something………I think the gold guys blew em off half way through the day too.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Peter, thank you very much! We rocked today everyone did such a great job!

    I agree, I am in the bull costume for a while longer :(

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Love it Vino Rojo for me! :)

  • the99th

    I was going to hold my EUR shorts just in case the top was in even though looking at the tape its obvious we´re in wave 4 of V. Since you said please I went ahead and took the 1.5% profit. Re buena onda.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi 99th, anytime a profit is taken is good! :) thanks for being here!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I was just chatting with Joe, and on the 10 we printed a lower low, but the bears have to take a stand to get this thing going or else we will see 1122-23 in short order.

  • Rd99Hse1

    Haikus have a format, ya know…

  • the99th

    I´m trying to focus on the big trades, catching the major wave 1 or 3 or 5 and reverse pyramiding through that, raking in triple digit gains, I try not to believe in a particular count or analysis to the exclusion of all other scenarios and leave myself open, and at least some of my positions as well. But you asked so nicely I figured, yeah, I´ll take that profit. Thanks for keeping the vibe friendly and looooow stress.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    You and I both 99th! That's the ticket is the big moves, I just try to do my best to analyze trends, but allot of my trading comes from instinct and for me that works really well most of the time.

    Yes, I think that you fetch more flies with sweet honey than you do with vinegar and love a warm friendly atmospheric blog as does my partner Keirsten :)))

  • stxinon

    In last summer,
    Haikus had a format.
    then frog jumped..

  • Rd99Hse1

    Fair enough my friend
    look out window i'm seeing
    bankers jumping out

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    The answer I'd like to know:
    Why none is saying the F word?
    What is wrong with this place – stop trading – start cursing!

  • the99th

    Mole is going to come back and the evil lair will smell like potpourri and scented candles. 😛

  • gannsecret

    Dollar index broke below the uptrend line (dec Futures 30 min chart)
    right near the close.
    It should go to new lows or retest the lows.
    That should be enough to push the SP up to 1105, a high on friday.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hehehehehe! Instead of dirty socks and old beer!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Don't start that now. LOL you know both Keirsten and I hate that… Douala too. Nice clean evil palace. You can be a Clean Rat! 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Same thoughts Gann, thanks for your thoughts!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    the market needs to get some bad breadth if we ever want to see lower prices again:
    http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/09/bre

  • gannsecret

    Anna,
    You've done a great job in Moles absence, I think your a little less
    tense than the Molester.

  • standard_and_poor

    Yeah Baby (in my best Austin Powers voice).
     
     

    ________________________________

  • Vardoger

    When Mole goes away, the bulls will play… not I. Keep your eyes on the rest of the world boys and girls.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “I got tired of seeing green candles so I changed them to blue.”

    Damn, I think I will go even further and change green to red!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    expect EUR quick spike to 1.4712 where downtrend will resume

  • Joe8888

    We finished a measured move down , from the 1075 high's,, to 1057,,,

    10 min SPX chart..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I'm there. Once (if ever) we start that beloved downtrend I'm going to change the red ones to green. All day I will say sh|t like, “whatchu talkin' about red all over the screen? Mine's green and I'm loving it!”

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I'm there. Once (if ever) we start that beloved downtrend I'm going to change the red ones to green. All day I will say sh|t like, “whatchu talkin' about red all over the screen? Mine's green and I'm loving it!”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gann, thanks so much..I am always telling him to ease up, smile relax, life is too short to be evil all the time :)))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    can I call you now Joe?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahaha :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I love Austin Powers I LOVE GOOOOOOLLLLLDDDD”

  • T_dub

    And do you expect that to be the end of the entire bear rally ? Nothing better than a Dow 10K headline over the weekend to top it off

  • de3600

    Barack Obama to appear on Food Network to offer up some outdoor grilling tips :)

  • the99th

    I reckon you just called the wave IV on my very lifestyle.

  • jacksoo

    great calls today anna – Eur/US still pinned in channel and that 1.46 is key i think – retest of 1050's this session?

  • BaldEagle

    Wow, they stick-saved the Shanghai Comp. this morning too..Goldman truly is a global firm!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Jacksoo, thanks you too, I will see what the overnight cash futs are saying, but I went long (bad girl bad girl) on the big dip earlier this morning.
    still long 4 lots EUR, if we break above 1.47, will look for retest of 1.4720

  • Osso

    You bet !!!!
    The K/A team sounds not only excellent TA in several fronts, but have a “style” in human relations.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Ola Ossa baby! We love to see you here! :)

  • z12run

    I don't know if this was posted here, but just in case it wasn't, I'll post it. It's written by Bob Janjuah the Chief Credit Strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. He wrote the note at the beginning of September and it's interesting to see the markets playing out the way he thought it would (ignore his bad grammar/spelling):

    [Anyway, let me say 1st up that even though its all been pretty marginal, the RISK here is that over the next month or so we see risk assets go even better. This is a TACTICAL call and is NOT a change in the 3/6mth secular call, which REMAINS BEARISH. Andy Chaytor set some levels last week which I am comfortable with – there is a 60/40 chance that S&P trades up to 1120ish by end Sept/early Oct. I think the next month will be volatile and NOT straight line, but on balance the risk is that by month end/early Oct, risk assets will be better. And YES, I know that Sept is seasonally one of the weakest months, that we are already 5% off the Aug highs, and that 'everyone' – even the bulls – think we need a period of pullback/consolidation, but for me the perfect head fake will be a strong (but volatile) Sept.

    I do however think that we are VERY MUCH in the tail end of the correction of the Oct 07 to Mar 09 bear move, where S&P lost nearly 60% from peak to trough, and where the correction from the Mar low would, at 1120, represent the 50% retrace. Once what I assume is a bear mrkt correction finishes, over the next month or so, I expect the Bear to return with vengeance and I retain my call for NEW LOWS in equities. That's 550 S&P!!]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-without-fu

  • Scrillhog

    Slept in and missed the first Geronimo trade. Took the second trade, and decided to pass on the 3rd due to the time.

    That drop in the VIX sucked out around 7% of the premium on my puts.

    Updated charts:

    /ES Bollinger daily:
    http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3990/bollies.png

    SPX Daily w/ Fibs:
    http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/6310/fibs.png

    Interesting how on the SPX daily, today was a hammer. That would normally signal a bullish reversal. I and many others have had 9/21 and the surrounding days as a turn date. Originally I thought it would be a IT low, then I thought it might mark a top and positioned myself w/ SPY puts. Will cut losses if we waffle around or shoot past the recent highs.

  • ColonelKurtz

    Here is why AIG was up so much today….Let the tail wag the dog….

    A report on AIG from the General Accounting Office (GAO):
    While federal assistance has helped stabilize AIG’s financial condition, GAO-developed indicators suggest that AIG’s ability to restructure its business and repay the government is unclear at this time. Indicators of AIG’s financial risk suggest that since AIG reported significant losses in late 2008, AIG’s operations, with federal assistance, have begun to show signs of stabilizing in mid 2009. Similarly, after a declining trend through 2008 and early 2009, indicators of AIG insurance companies’ financial risk suggest improved financial conditions that were largely results of federal assistance. Indicators of AIG’s repayment of federal assistance show some progress in AIG’s ability to repay the federal assistance; however, improvement in the stability of AIG’s business depends on the long-term health of the company, market conditions, and continued government support. Therefore, the ultimate success of AIG’s restructuring and repayment efforts remains uncertain. GAO plans to continue to review the Federal Reserve’s and Treasury’s monitoring efforts and report on these indicators to determine the likelihood of AIG repaying the government’s assistance in full and the government recouping its investment.

    Paid off Political Hack comes out early this AM and says they are proposing the debt be restructured b/c unfair to AIG…. B S BS B S…..Sound like to me the GAO told them you boys better get them some new terms on that debt or they could very well implode just like last year…. BLACK HOLE Of a company (govt owned entity)… NOT profitable just like FRE, FNM C BAC

  • stxinon

    Bankers jumping out of windows.
    People rushing to buy,
    Funeral Service Stocks..

    [I own CSV ]

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    We disagreed with Bob when I last spoke to him [which is never] on SPX low target – he insisted on 550 and I told him I can only do 584. At least we did not fight because of 1120.
    Fill it up – no ice

    P.S. It amuses me that TODAY we listen to Bobs and make examples of Bobs and we all ourselves are Bobs today, but 2 months ago that kind of “Bob” would be laughed at.
    It is sad to observe that Bears, just like Bulls lack sense of reality :(

    So humane… never hear anything beside things we want to hear.

  • grednfer

    I don't normally make predictions here, but …..
    -I got a descending wedge in tbills
    -I got a descending wedge in the SPX
    -TF just broke out to the upside
    -NQ is above its high……
    -DX looks like its breaking down
    -EU is camping at the fence

    I get the message. Cake or Death!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    IYR – mission accomplished (2 days ago)
    http://screencast.com/t/I04CDL5cGUvX

    “The longer they fight it the harder the fall”

  • jacksoo

    you're looking a little pale David – perhaps some sunshine would help? How are you seeing EZ today – test of 1071 or test of wedge contained? appreciate the feedbak.

  • Keirsten

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Sorry I'm early, but I need to get some other things done tonight.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Of course I am pale – I have been on the phone all day long with GS people – was negotiating condition of surrendering
    after flat day like today it is a real pain to forecast, but I'd say based on what I see as of today's close IF we'll go to 1071.50 – that will cancel ABC SPX is in now.
    But I think we well see 1056 tomorrow and I will plunge in short on higher open with stop above 1071.

  • gannsecret

    No

  • gannsecret

    No